Although I do wish I had a crystal ball, I’m not here to tell you which team is going to win the National Championship. I’m not trying to predict the Final Four in September. Give me about two months, and then we can get to my predictions about all of that.

I’m more interested in something much more important: Which college teams are going to be appointment viewing for NBA Draft sickos?

Which campuses have multiple legitimate prospects? Which rosters could produce three, four, maybe even five draft picks? And, most importantly, which players are going to force us to completely rethink the 2027 class by March?

There are plenty of teams with intriguing NBA talent. But five immediately stand out. One of them might be in a tier of its own.

Let’s get into it.

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Arkansas: The NBA Draft Superteam

Let’s start with the obvious one. Arkansas is absolutely ridiculous.

The Razorbacks currently have five players in Bleacher Report’s Top 100, including two players inside the Top 5. That’s Jordan Smith Jr. at #2, JJ Andrews at #5, Miikka Muurinen at #22, Abdou Toure at #25, and Billy Richmond III at #54.

Five. From one college roster.

At this point, I don’t even think the question is whether Arkansas has NBA talent. The more interesting part is figuring out how many of these guys are going to make us move them up.

Smith Jr. is obviously the headliner. At #2, the expectations are already enormous. Being highly ranked before the season is one thing, but already looking like one of the best players in the country is another. As a senior at Paul VI, Smith averaged 25.1 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 3.0 steals per game while leading his team to both the WCAC and VISAA Division I championships. Now comes the translation phase. Smith has already shown he can score at a ridiculous level. The next step is consistently creating advantages against college athletes. The ability to bend a defense, get two defenders leaning, and make the right read when the obvious scoring opportunity isn’t there will determine how much of an offensive engine he can become. That’s the difference between simply putting up numbers and actually dictating possessions.

And then there’s Andrews; he’s #5 in the B/R rankings, so again, not exactly a sleeper. But I think that’s part of what makes Arkansas so interesting. Andrews put together a ridiculous senior season, averaging 30.7 points, 16.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.3 steals, and 1.1 blocks while shooting 60.9% from the field. He also finished his prep career with 2,865 points, fifth-most in Arkansas high school history, and earned 2026 McDonald’s All-American honors.

You could make a legitimate case that Smith Jr. isn’t even the biggest riser on this roster by the end of the season.

Andrews has the production and physical profile to make that argument very real.

Muurinen is a completely different kind of bet. He’s 6’10” and already has legitimate high-level international experience, including a run with Finland at EuroBasket 2025 where he averaged 6.6 points and 1.9 rebounds in eight games. He also spent part of last season with Partizan, appearing in both the ABA League and EuroLeague. His numbers there weren’t overwhelming: 4.1 points and 2.9 rebounds in 12.0 minutes per game in the ABA, but that’s part of what makes his #22 ranking so fascinating. The production hasn’t caught up to the projection yet. The tools and flashes are what evaluators are betting on with Muurinen.

Toure gives the Razorbacks another high-upside bet, and that’s where this roster starts getting silly. He’s another freshman entering a situation where he doesn’t have to carry the offense immediately, which could allow his strengths to show without forcing him into a role he’s not ready for. That’s exactly the type of prospect who could make a big jump once college basketball starts giving us actual data points. And if Toure forces his way into the lottery conversation, suddenly Arkansas has potentially four players fighting for serious draft position.

Then there’s Richmond, sitting at #54 as the guy who could potentially make the biggest leap in the group. Unlike the other four, we’ve already seen him produce against high-level college competition. Richmond averaged 11.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.0 assists last season while shooting 56.3% from the field, and he earned a spot on the 2026 SEC All-Defensive Team. He also played every game and saw his role grow from 17.5 minutes per game as a freshman to 27.6 minutes as a sophomore. That’s the part I’m watching. If the offensive game continues to develop while that defensive versatility remains, #54 could look pretty low by March.

That’s what makes Arkansas so deep.

You have Smith Jr. already sitting at #2, Andrews coming off a monster prep season, Muurinen bringing international experience and enormous upside, Toure as another high-upside freshman, and Richmond as the one guy in the group who has already shown he can contribute at the college level.

That’s absurd depth.

It also creates several fascinating storylines for the season. Smith Jr. enters as the established headliner. Andrews has the production to challenge him. Muurinen brings perhaps the biggest international upside swing. Toure has a path toward the lottery conversation. Richmond has the opportunity to make the largest leap from his current ranking.

That’s why Arkansas gets the top spot. This isn’t just a team with NBA prospects; this may be an entire NBA Draft ecosystem.

Duke: Four Problems for NBA Scouts

If Arkansas is the draft superteam, Duke isn’t exactly struggling.

The Blue Devils have four players in Bleacher Report’s Top 100, and all four are currently inside the Top 40: Bryson Howard (#10), Patrick Ngongba II (#13), Cameron Williams (#23), and Dame Sarr (#40).

I’m particularly interested in Howard, because I think we’re getting to the point where the conversation around him needs to move beyond the obvious stuff. Yes, he’s big. Yes, he can shoot. But the next layer of his evaluation is self-creation. As a high school senior, Howard averaged 22.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 3.2 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game. He was also an absolute flamethrower from deep on the EYBL circuit, averaging 19.7 points per game while shooting 46.2% from three. That’s the foundation. Now the focus shifts to what happens when the athletes get better. Howard’s ability to get downhill against a set defense, create separation, and make plays when the offense breaks down will be critical. If he adds legitimate self-creation on top of the shooting and size, the ceiling gets really interesting. Suddenly we’re not just talking about a big wing who fits into an NBA offense. We’re talking about someone who might actually drive the offense.

Ngongba II is another player I’m really curious about because his evaluation is so different. At #13, the talent is clearly there, but his next step is about expanding his impact beyond traditional big-man production. As a freshman at Duke, Ngongba averaged 10.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.0 assists in 21.9 minutes per game while shooting 60.6% from the field. He also shot 66.4% from the free-throw line, which is an interesting number for a young big. The production wasn’t overwhelming, but the efficiency gives him a strong foundation. Ngongba’s physicality, decision-making, and ability to provide value without needing the offense to run through him will be important developmental areas. If those pieces expand alongside the existing interior efficiency, there’s a very real chance he spends the season reminding people why he was ranked this highly in the first place.

Williams is another name who could make this roster even more dangerous. He’s already sitting at #23, but this is exactly the kind of situation where a player can benefit from being surrounded by other high-level talent. Williams averaged 24.6 points, 12.0 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.8 blocks, and 1.7 steals per game as a senior. Duke may have another young player on their hands who could be pushing his way toward the top of the board.

Then there’s Sarr, sitting at #40 and potentially representing the biggest wild card of the group. He’s the guy whose ranking could change dramatically with the right season. Sarr averaged 6.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.1 assists per game for the Blue Devils during the 2025–2026 season. He made a significant defensive impact, earning a spot on the ACC All-Defensive Team. He’s already played professional basketball abroad, which gives him a completely different developmental background from the other players on this roster. At #40, you’re already talking about a legitimate prospect. But a season where the production begins matching the talent could put him into a completely different tier.

That’s what I love about this roster.

There isn’t one way to win the draft evaluation game here.

You can watch Duke and come away obsessed with the scoring. Or the shooting. Or the size. Or the versatility. Or the upside.

There are just too many places to look.

That’s why Duke might have one of the deepest collections of high-end NBA talent in the country.

UConn: Three Top-25 Guys, Three Very Different Questions

UConn is where this gets really interesting.

The Huskies don’t have five players on the board. They don’t even have four. They have three. But all three are currently inside the Top 25: Braylon Mullins (#7), Colben Landrew (#11), and Najai Hines (#24).

Mullins is the obvious name.

We already know about the shooting. We already know about the off-ball value. The next step is expanding his creation.

Last season, Mullins averaged 12.0 points per game as a freshman while shooting 33.5% from three and 88.9% from the free-throw line. That free-throw percentage is particularly encouraging as a shooting development data point. The shooting gets him on the floor. Developing consistent advantage creation off the bounce is what could move him into the upper tier of the draft.

Landrew is where things get even more intriguing. He’s already #11, so we’re not discussing an under-the-radar player who needs to introduce himself to the draft world. At 6’6” with a 6’10” wingspan, he’s already got the physical profile, and the flashes of offensive versatility are there. He shot just under 34% from three in 3SSB play, but knocked down 46% of his open catch-and-shoot threes, which gives him legitimate floor-spacing gravity. The swing skill is creating that gravity himself. He went just 1-for-15 on dribble jumpers in 3SSB play, making that an obvious developmental area to monitor. If that part of his game develops, the rest of his toolkit becomes much more dangerous. He’s already a terrific offensive rebounder at 2.4 per game, finishes 65% of his attempts at the rim, and averaged 1.3 steals. Also, his strength allows him to defend multiple positions. When you’re ranked #11 before the season, you’re not simply trying to prove that you belong. You’re trying to prove that you belong even higher. For Landrew, that could come down to whether the shooting and secondary creation eventually become something more than flashes.

Then there’s Hines at #24. This is the guy who could really shake up the UConn hierarchy. His freshman season at Seton Hall was more about flashes than overwhelming production: 6.5 points and 5.5 rebounds in just 18.0 minutes per game, but he shot 60.2% from the field and averaged 2.2 blocks. He didn’t start a game, either. That makes his next step particularly interesting. An expanded role will provide a much better indication of how well his efficiency and defensive impact scale with increased usage. If Hines can turn those flashes of interior production into a larger offensive role without sacrificing what already makes him effective, #24 could end up looking pretty low.

That’s what I like most about this group. These aren’t three copies of the same prospect. They’re three different bets, with three different developmental paths. Right now, the rankings tell us Mullins is the guy. But by March, because we all know how things can get crazy during that electric month, that hierarchy could look very different.

Illinois: Seven Prospects, Tons of Possibilities

No, I didn’t just put the Illini here because they are my team. It does, however, definitely help that they have a pretty stacked roster.

Out of all the ranked teams I have here, Illinois takes the cake with SEVEN players in B/R’s top 100. Illinois has Quentin Coleman at #19, David Mirkovic at #42, Stefan Vaaks at #43, Lucas Morillo at #61, Andrej Stojakovic at #75, Zvonimir Ivisic at #89, and, last but not least, Tomislav Ivisic at No. 92.

Phew. My fingers started cramping a little bit there. But we progress.

That’s a large volume of players receiving high praise before this season has even started, and three of them have yet to step on the Illinois hardwood and play a game with the team. That’s what makes this roster so interesting to me. It feels like one of those teams where the whole could become much more interesting than the individual pieces.

Coleman is the obvious starting point. He’s already sitting at #19, so there isn’t much mystery around his draft status, but this season will determine whether he can turn that ranking into a statement season. Many have viewed Coleman as the replacement for Keaton Wagler, so seeing if he can emulate some of Wagler’s craft and fill the hole he left when he moved on to the NBA will be crucial. Coleman certainly has the production to make you believe in that possibility. He averaged 23.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 2.7 steals as a senior at Principia while shooting 64% from the field and 50% from three, leading his team to a 29-2 record and another state championship. He even dropped 50 points in the state title game. Obviously, none of that guarantees those numbers will translate to the Big Ten, but that’s exactly what I’m watching for with him. His three-level scoring and playmaking now have to translate against college athletes.

Mirkovic is a completely different evaluation. There isn’t much he lacks in terms of skill and physicality. He’s got size, shooting, passing, and versatility. Also, we already have a pretty good statistical baseline for what that looks like at the college level. As a freshman, Mirkovic averaged 13.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 2.6 assists while shooting 48.4% from the field and 37.5% from three. He also started 36 of Illinois’s 37 games and posted a 56.2% Effective Field Goal Percentage. That’s a really fun combination in the modern NBA, and one that is becoming more prevalent as the years progress and draft classes evolve. The next layer of his evaluation is expanding that skill set. More creation, more ability to punish switches, and more consistent defensive pressure would turn an already versatile offensive profile into something much more difficult to scheme against.

Then there’s Vaaks, who transferred to Illinois this season from Providence. He is absolutely my Illinois wild card, and I know that may be a bold statement. He’s the type of player who could make this entire roster look different by March. Vaaks arrived at Illinois after a monster freshman season at Providence, where he averaged 15.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 3.2 assists while shooting 35.0% from three and 83.9% from the free-throw line. He also made 91 threes in 31 games, earned Big East All-Freshman honors, and averaged 31.5 minutes per game. He wasn’t just an intriguing transfer addition; he was one of the most productive young offensive players available in the portal. Now he’s walking into a Final Four program with a chance to become one of its most important players, and that in and of itself boosts the amount of eyes on him. If he can be the player Brad Underwood envisions, I have no doubt Vaaks will be one of the most talked-about prospects in the entire country.

Then you get to the other pieces that make this roster so ridiculous. Stojakovic is sitting at #75, and he’s another player I’m watching closely because he doesn’t necessarily need to become the team’s primary option to see his stock rise. He averaged 13.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.0 assists per game for Illinois last season while shooting 50% from the field and 80.5% from the free-throw line. The interesting part is that his three-point shooting fell all the way to 24.4%, after he shot 31.8% at Cal the year before. That’s a huge swing, and it’s one of the things I’m watching most closely. If the shot comes back while the efficiency and scoring remain intact, I could see his draft conversation getting much louder.

Morillo, meanwhile, is #61 and feels like another player with plenty of room to climb. He hasn’t played a college game yet, but there’s plenty of production to point to with him. He averaged 20 points, nine rebounds, and 4.3 assists for the Dominican Republic at the 2025 FIBA U19 World Cup, while also averaging 1.9 steals. He also put up 15.1 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 5.1 assists as a junior at The Newman School. With this much talent around him, he won’t have to carry Illinois every night, which could actually work in his favor. The main focus will be seeing how much of that all-around production translates when the athleticism and physicality jump up another level.

Then, because apparently Illinois wasn’t done collecting interesting prospects, we have the Ivisic twins. Zvonimir is #89, and Tomislav is #92, and both bring another layer of size and skill to an already loaded roster. Zvonimir averaged 6.5 points and 4.5 rebounds last season while blocking 72 shots, giving Illinois a legitimate rim-protection presence. Tomislav, meanwhile, averaged 10.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.6 assists while shooting 31.3% from three. At 7’1”, that shooting and passing combination is what makes Tomislav especially interesting to me, even if the three-point percentage leaves plenty of room for improvement. With both brothers, the next step is translating those physical tools into bigger, more consistent roles. If either one proves capable of performing on both ends of the floor at a consistently high level, those rankings could start looking pretty conservative.

We’re looking at seven players who all have legitimate draft conversations happening around them, and they’re all very different players. That’s what makes Illinois so fascinating. You can look at Coleman and see a potential Big Ten creator. You can look at Mirkovic and see a versatile offensive piece with room to expand. You can look at Vaaks and see a potential offensive engine. You can look at Morillo, Stojakovic, or either Ivisic and see completely different paths to a draft-stock jump. Illinois doesn’t need all seven of these guys to hit; they might just need a few of them to hit at the same time.

If that happens, this could be one of those squads that other teams will find absolutely miserable to prepare for in March.

North Carolina: The Wild Card

Finally, we have North Carolina.

The Tar Heels have Maximo Adams at #30, Sayon Keita at #46, and Neoklis Avdalas at #53.

But if you’re asking me which player I want to put under the microscope? That would be Sayon Keita. He is the kind of prospect that makes draft nerds like myself, and probably you reading this, stay up too late. Keita is coming over from Barcelona. He’s huge. He’s long. He’s physically intriguing. And we don’t really know exactly what happens when all of that gets dropped into high-level college basketball.

That’s because the statistical track record isn’t exactly going to tell us what Keita is going to become. He appeared in just nine Liga ACB games last season, averaging 0.9 points, 1.3 rebounds, and 0.4 blocks in 5.4 minutes per game. He also saw a slightly larger role in six EuroLeague appearances, averaging 2.5 points and 1.5 rebounds in 8.7 minutes while shooting 58.3% from the field. Those numbers aren’t impressive on their own. They’re also not really supposed to be. The sample is tiny. The minutes are tiny.

That’s exactly why I’m so interested. The evaluation here is almost entirely about translation. Keita’s length, physical tools, and defensive potential have to become functional basketball. His ability to consistently create defensive events, rebound, finish through contact, and stay involved offensively will determine how quickly the game slows down for him. If Keita figures things out quickly, we’re going to have a very different conversation about him.

But Keita isn’t the only reason I’m interested in UNC. Adams is already sitting at #30, which means the expectations are much higher for him. Also, unlike Keita, we already have a pretty good idea of what Adams can do as a scorer and rebounder. During his run with Vegas Elite on the Nike EYBL circuit, Adams averaged 20.5 points and 11.4 rebounds per game while shooting 42% from three. He was one of the best rebounders on the entire circuit, and that production is a big part of what helped push him into the upper tier of the 2026 class. He was even more productive at Peach Jam, averaging 18.8 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 2.6 assists while shooting 51.4% from the field, 40% from three, and 85.7% from the free-throw line. That’s a pretty interesting foundation. At #30 on a 2027 board, though, the expectations are much higher than simply putting up good numbers against high school competition. His scoring versatility and rebounding now have to translate to college basketball. A strong season could turn him from a guy sitting comfortably inside the top 30 into someone pushing toward the very top of the class.

Then there’s Avdalas at #53. This is where things get really intriguing because, unlike both Adams and Keita, Avdalas has already played a full season of high-level college basketball. As a freshman at Virginia Tech, Avdalas averaged 12.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 4.6 assists in 31.7 minutes per game while starting all 31 games. He shot 38.6% from the field and 31.4% from three, but the playmaking really stands out. A 6’9” guard averaging 4.6 assists per game is a pretty unusual statistical profile. The passing is already there. The size is already there. The next step is improving the efficiency. If Avdalas can turn that 31.4% three-point shooting into something more respectable while maintaining the playmaking and adding a little more scoring efficiency, #53 could look pretty silly by the end of the season. He already showed he can handle a major college role. Now a change of scenery and another year of development give him an opportunity to turn that production into something more efficient and more dangerous. He doesn’t need to become the star of this team. He just needs to show enough flashes of creation, shooting, and overall offensive impact to make evaluators wonder whether #53 is simply where he starts.

That’s what makes UNC the wild card for me.

Adams is the established high-upside freshman. Avdalas is the proven college producer with an intriguing physical profile. Keita is the complete mystery box, and maybe that’s the most fun combination of all.

Keita is the “what if?” player, and those are usually my favorite ones. He’s not necessarily the prospect who has everything figured out, but the prospect where you watch five minutes and think: “Wait... what happens if this all comes together?” That’s Keita.

So... Who Is the Biggest Draft Factory?

That’s the most intriguing part.

Because I don’t think there’s one obvious answer.

Arkansas has the ridiculous depth. Duke has four high-end prospects stacked together. UConn has three players inside the Top 25. Illinois might have the most interesting mix of established talent and breakout potential. North Carolina has multiple prospects who could completely change their draft conversations with the right season.

But here’s where I’m going to plant my flag: if I had to pick the team I think could have the biggest impact on the 2027 NBA Draft, I’m taking Arkansas. If I had to pick the team I’m most curious to watch, it’s Illinois.

And those are two very different things.

Arkansas has the names right now. That’s the easy part. The fascinating part is figuring out whether all of those names actually live up to the rankings—or whether someone sitting outside the top tier forces their way into the conversation.

Illinois is different.

Illinois feels like the team where the rankings might tell us the least about where these players are going to finish.

Seven players in the Top 100 is ridiculous, but I don’t care nearly as much about the number seven as I do about which seven.

If Coleman takes another step, Mirkovic proves he can consistently leverage all of his skill, Vaaks becomes the offensive engine I think he can be, and one or two of the other guys make a legitimate jump, we’re going to look at this roster very differently by March.

That’s really the entire point of doing this in September.

We’re not trying to pretend we know exactly what the 2027 NBA Draft is going to look like. We don’t.

We’re trying to figure out where the next major risers are hiding.

The player who turns a jumper into a weapon. The guard who suddenly becomes a legitimate creator. The big who discovers he can punish switches. The transfer who walks into a new situation and completely changes his trajectory. The guy sitting at #40 who finishes the season at #12.

That’s what I’m watching for this season.

So, yes, these are my five college basketball draft factories entering the 2026-27 season.

But if you make me pick one team to bet on before the season starts?

Arkansas has the most talent.

If you make me pick one team that could completely change the way we talk about its players by March?

I’m taking Illinois.

And if you make me pick the player I’m most interested in watching blow up his current ranking?

Well...

That’s why we’re here.

The season hasn’t even started yet.

Share No Ceilings

Two years ago, the Utah Jazz drafted Cody Williams #10 overall. Fast forward to the present, and they just shipped him off to the Minnesota Timberwolves as a throw-in in a trade that netted them Josh Green.

Teams usually don’t give up on Top 10 picks this soon. That speaks to how much of a letdown Williams’s first two seasons with the Jazz were. However, the 21-year-old will now get a chance to flip the narrative with the Timberwolves. This is his “second draft” chance, and he has to capitalize on this opportunity.

Context is everything in the league. Many times, a draft pick not panning out can be chalked up to a poor fit between player and club, not the player lacking talent. At this point, Williams returning Top 10 value is quite unlikely, but he could still prove himself as an impactful NBA guy.

Let’s break down what’s to like and dislike about Williams’s game, and evaluate his outlook as a Timberwolf, and in general, moving forward.

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What’s good?

Williams is an unrefined prospect. That was clear when he was coming out of Colorado for the 2024 draft, and it’s still true today. However, he does have a couple of legitimate NBA-caliber traits he can hang his hat on, including mid-range shooting, transition scoring, and cutting.

Starting with the mid-range, he scored 0.89 points per shot on long mid-range jumpers in 2025-26, which ranked in the 73rd percentile according to Synergy. His shot mechanics aren’t always the prettiest (we’ll get to that later), but his off-the-dribble middies usually look smooth.

These pull-ups are a real weapon for him when he’s attacking closeouts or playing out of the pick-and-roll. If he finds some space after one or two dribbles, he’ll rise and fire and knock shots down with a level of poise that doesn’t shine through in other aspects of his game.

In transition, Williams sets himself up for easy looks by filling the right lanes and sneaking behind discombobulated defenders. His speed in the open floor isn’t blinding, but he makes up for that with his feel for slipping through gaps in the defense. He posted 1.16 points per possession in transition last season, a 58th percentile rate. His production could have been even higher if he didn’t inexplicably blow a few too many bunnies.

The keen spatial awareness Williams shows in his fastbreak endeavors also shows up in the halfcourt with his cutting. His 1.27 PPP off cuts was his highest PPP on any play type last season. If a defender turns his back to Williams, he’s going to make them pay and dart right to the hoop.

Unfortunately, while Williams’s work in the mid-range and as a cutter are cool and all, those two skills headlining his value proposition don’t exactly bode well for his future. He needs to find another area to excel in—one that’s more useful to contenders. Luckily, he has the foundation in place to become a good defender on and off the ball.

While he could stand to fill out his frame a bit (again, more on that later), Williams has the physical profile of a quality wing stopper. Also, unlike some guys who get touted for their physical tools, he’s actually shown he knows how to use them.

In isolation last season, Williams conceded 0.95 PPP (42nd percentile). That’s not bad on its own, but the tape paints an even more encouraging picture. He does a nice job containing the ball, especially against other wings/forwards, and many of the baskets he gives up are tough contested jumpers, not layups off blow-bys.

Off the ball, Williams has sharp instincts in the passing lanes. He graded out as a 64th percentile passing lane defender while racking up 2.76 deflections per 75 possessions (63rd percentile) in 2025-26, according to BBall Index. He’s able to anticipate passes coming in his direction, and if he can’t snatch the rock out of the air and claim a steal, he’s at least going to get a fingertip on it.

Continuing to grow in the defensive department will be crucial to Williams’s shot at survival in this league.

What’s bad?

As mentioned earlier, Williams is pretty raw. He lacks a lot of polish, confidence, and strength across the board. These are overarching issues that contribute to most of his specific struggles.

The glaring area for improvement for Williams is scoring efficiency. In 2025-26, he netted 0.99 PPS on all field goal attempts, which buried him in the 24th percentile. It doesn’t matter if he’s inside the arc or on the perimeter—he has a hard time putting the ball in the basket.

His three-point shot is frankly a disaster right now. In his pre-draft campaign with Colorado, he connected on 41.5% of his triples, although it was on minuscule volume. Any trace of that type of outside shooting touch has evaporated in the NBA.

For his career, Williams has gone 23.7% from deep on 2.3 attempts per game. Last season, he striped a concerning 23.8% of his spot-up tries, and went 21.4% on threes overall. Mental and mechanical problems both factor into these woes.

His jump shot is too slow to be viable, plain and simple. His release point is high, but that’s about the only redeeming factor for the form itself. His base is too narrow, and his foot placement can be all over the place. The whole thing could use a tune-up, if not an overhaul.

On the mental side, it seems like Williams has next to zero self-efficacy as a three-point shooter. He rarely catches the rock ready to let it fly, and he’ll pass up wide-open treys in favor of step-in middies. When he does let one rip without hesitation, things look cleaner, but he does that about as often as Chick-Fil-A opens on a Sunday.

Williams being such a shoddy marksman would be less of a big deal if he were a serious interior threat. Sadly, his paint scoring is also a mess.

In 2025-26, he converted 1.03 PPS on all layups (32nd percentile). In the halfcourt, that fell to 0.95 PPS. He’s an adequate finisher as a cutter, but the opposite is true when he’s driving. He registered 0.88 PPP on halfcourt drives last season. That part of his game might be even worse than his shooting.

Williams can hardly get all the way to the rim even if he tries. If he doesn’t settle for a mid-range jumper, one of two things happens: he gathers and goes up for the layup too early, giving him an awkward angle to finish, or he gets swallowed up by his defender because he doesn’t have NBA-level strength.

He doesn’t have much burst, so he has to rely on wiggle to create driving lanes, but his handle is too high and loose for him to do so regularly. So, basically, he has no avenue to score at the rim unless a teammate is spoon-feeding him. That has to change.

Honing his handling would make a significant difference for Williams, because generally speaking, he’s not strong or collected enough with the ball to make anything happen when he puts it on the deck. More often than not, he looks like a deer in headlights when he attempts to create off the dribble.

Outlook

After reading about his shortcomings, you may be wondering if Cody Williams has any NBA juice in him at all. It’s a valid question, honestly, but you shouldn’t drop all hope yet.

Williams still has paths to success. It’ll take some major growth from him, but he could stick if he follows the blueprint set by two of his new teammates, Jaden McDaniels and Jonathan Kuminga.

To clarify, those are playstyle comparisons, not realistic ceilings. That said, if Williams can fit into a role/mold similar to either McDaniels or Kuminga, he could carve out a future in the association.

Becoming a McDaniels-esque wing is the loftier expectation here. Williams already has solid defensive groundwork laid down, and it’s not crazy to imagine him climbing a couple more rungs on that end and becoming borderline elite. JMac, of course, is an all-world defensive ace, but he’s also a silky tertiary scorer who can lace corner threes and drill middies off the bounce. At the peak of his hypothetical powers, Williams would probably play somewhat akin to McDaniels offensively. To reach those heights, though, he’ll need to rep out his handling and three-ball relentlessly.

If Williams were to pursue the Kuminga route, he wouldn’t have to buy into the defense as much. Instead, the keys would be adding muscle and increasing his scoring aggression. Kuminga is a polarizing player, but he’s talented, and he’s produced in important games. Williams becoming a variant of the former #7 pick would be a huge positive, all things considered.

There’s certainly a world where Williams can’t ever crack the rotation in Minnesota and fizzles out within a year or two. However, there’s also a world where he thrives in his new home. The latter would require substantial work from Williams and plenty of belief and patience from the Wolves, plus a little luck, but it’s not at all out of the realm of possibility.

Drafting a project prospect and expecting them to figure things out in two years isn’t fair. It might take more time, but Cody Williams could definitely right the ship and get back on track for a fruitful NBA career.

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Tajh Ariza | Wing | Oregon

Although I hadn’t done a thorough walk-through on him until this very offseason, I can still tell you in confidence that my evaluation process with Tajh Ariza has been quite the roller coaster. Particularly over this past year, I started being all out on him, as his start to the 2025-26 campaign with Link Academy was far from inspiring. Ariza was barely cracking the rotation at times; the inconsistency that had plagued him in the past had turned into just flat-out bad play. Overall, he wasn’t making near the level of impact that I would hope a fringe five-star talent would make. However, as the year went on, I kept tabs on Link–not solely for Ariza, although he was a large factor. As the year went on, he was a guy who continued to grow on me. He always had the flashes of who he could be, but as the year built, he began to turn those flashes into production. In fact, by season’s end, he had worked his way into Link’s starting five and was one of their more productive players on both ends of the basketball. It truly was a remarkable turnaround. So naturally, when the offseason struck, and I was left with nothing but time on my hands, I wanted to take a dive, peek through his entire year’s sample to find out what changed. I wanted to figure out what went well, what flaws he had to mask, what strengths he built upon, and most importantly, discover if he was a talent capable of making a push to be selected on draft night. As for what I found, well, it’s fair to say that I am perplexed as to why the mainstream draft media is taking Ariza more seriously.

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Before Brad Underwood stepped on campus in 2017, it’d been five years since the Fighting Illini boasted a first-round pick in the NBA Draft.

Under his reign, the streak ballooned to 12 before Terrence Shannon Jr. opened the floodgates in 2024.

Since then, Illinois has been a hotbed for finding and developing NBA talent. Will Riley, Kasparas Jakucionis, and—perhaps Underwood’s most audacious find yet—Keaton Wagler headline Champaign’s deepest talent pool since the days of Deron Williams.

The Illini have a chance to keep the streak going in the 2027 NBA Draft. Coincidentally (or maybe not), their prospect with the highest chance of continuing the trend is, like Wagler, a skinny combo guard from Missouri who flew up recruiting rankings toward the end of his grassroots career.

And, like Wagler, Quentin Coleman has the talent to become a lottery pick amid the Fighting Illini’s National Championship quest.

Here’s why.

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Quentin’s NBA Qualities

At the forefront of any sell for Coleman as an NBA player is his shooting ability. Over a 34-game sample gathered by Cerebro Sports, the guard posted a 37.3 three-point attempt rate and knocked threes down at a 39% clip. In his final EYBL season, he shot 39%, with 40% of his shots coming from behind the arc.

Coleman has a smooth, one-motion release with a quick trigger. He’s comfortable taking shots well beyond the collegiate line and is efficient on both catch-and-shoots and pull-ups.

Additionally, Coleman is a sharp off-ball mover with excellent spatial awareness, which allows him to relocate within the flow of any offense.

The threat of a bomb from Coleman opens up his game as a driver. As defenders converge and run him off the line, he is adept at quickly attacking a defender’s top foot as he slashes to the rim. Coleman is better at attacking closeouts or scoring off of dribble handoffs—essentially extending and finishing advantages—than he is at creating a paint touch from a standstill, but he still extracts a ton of value out of said play types.

The guard fancies a left-to-right cross, has great footwork, plays well off of two feet, and has displayed adequate touch around the rim. Most importantly, he initiates contact.

On his way to a Peach Jam Championship with Bradley Beal Elite (BBE), he shot 60% at the rim and generated 0.9771 points per possession on drives (22 percent frequency).

In AAU and during high school seasons with the Principia Panthers in Saint Louis, Coleman displayed the ability to play on and off the ball. With BBE, he played primarily off the ball, but back home he scaled up, and his passing ability flashed much more. On tape, Coleman didn’t make many advanced reads, but he’s an exceptionally quick decision-maker, never over-dribbles, and takes what the defense gives him every time.

As a result of a lower-risk passing diet, Coleman limits turnovers (1.8 AST:TO in his final EYBL session) and maximizes his team’s possessions. He takes advantage of some of the low-hanging fruit, such as hit-ahead in transitions, finding cutters on the move, and hitting shooters one pass away.

When tasked with more on-ball usage, he showed the propensity to find rollers, make interior passes as he drove to the rim, and even the occasional skip pass.

The idea of possession maximization, which Coleman exhibits through multiple facets of his game, presents the most interesting pillar of his evaluation: rebounding.

Champaign’s newest star possesses a motor that’s somewhat atypical of a five-star guard prospect. Despite his 180-pound frame, he plays with physicality. He crashes the glass with vigor, has an innate feel for where to be, and constantly creates extra opportunities. Coleman posted a 12.4 defensive rebounding percentage and an astounding 10.5 offensive rebounding percentage with BBE.

Coleman’s full offensive skill set, built on shooting, quick decision-making, ball-moving, turnover aversion, and offensive rebounding, builds a portfolio of traits that has led to positive impact for several NBA players. Players who shoot a ton of threes, crash the glass, and limit turnovers have pathways to three-factor (offensive true shooting, offensive turnover, and offensive rebounding) impact. They can help offenses function more efficiently.

If Coleman can show the same scalability across contexts as he did in high school, while maintaining his ancillary value, I’m bullish on his chances of being a lottery pick next June.

But first, I’d like a few questions answered.

Coleman’s NBA Concerns

Coleman has said the Illini coaching staff compared him to other players they’ve had in the past during their pitches to bring him to the University after he decommitted from Wake Forest.

I’d imagine Wagler was the main comparison, and it goes beyond the aesthetic reasons mentioned earlier.

Both are physical, high-feel guards who are great shooters; they can play on and off the ball, and also crash the glass.

And, unironically, I have a few of the same concerns for Coleman that I did for Wagler.

For starters, he’s really light, and his lack of strength hinders him on both ends.

Defensively, he can struggle at the point of attack when guarding stronger players who can move him back and score through and over the top of him.

Coleman frequently conceded drives to quicker/shiftier guards and stronger, more powerful wings. At his size, he’ll also likely be incapable of switching onto bigger players and holding his own.

He’d sometimes struggle to slide his feet and cut guards off, and his hips were too high on occasion.

However, Coleman doesn’t take many plays off; his motor and feel are apparent on both sides of the ball, even when he gets overwhelmed physically.

Though he may struggle as an on-ball defender until he puts on more muscle, I was routinely impressed by his off-ball defense and ability to generate turnovers. He posted a 2.7 STL% at EYBL and averaged 2.5 steals per 40 minutes in Cerebro’s 34-game sample.

Coleman has some fantastic digs at the nail, closed out well on shooters, and possesses great hand-eye coordination that helps him get deflections and steals in passing lanes.

The guard’s event creation and team defense could help quell some concerns about his individual defense, but my questions about his lack of strength are exacerbated on offense because he lacks top-end foot speed, burst, and vertical athleticism.

Coleman is a crafty player who plays with pace and can finish with both hands, but I am skeptical of his upside as a creator because of the aforementioned concerns. He can struggle at times to create clean separation against longer and more athletic defenders. He also has room to improve when finishing through contact.

Despite Coleman finishing 60% at the rim overall, he shot just 50% at the rim in the halfcourt in his final AAU season, and he’ll face much more potent rim protection in the Big Ten this season. Without a go-to non-rim counter (or a monstrous free-throw rate), he could struggle from two, similar to his predecessor.

It’s paramount for Coleman to keep fine-tuning his deceleration as the competition rises and he grows into his body.

The latter part can be more complicated, but fortunately for Coleman, Illinois has one of the best strength-and-conditioning programs in the country.

In fact, his decision to choose the Illini as the environment to help him blossom into a pro makes me more bullish on what his performance could look like this season.

Far from a Verdict

Illinois has an ecosystem tailored to maximize Coleman’s strengths. Perhaps that’s why the Illini recruited him so hard.

Last season, Illinois ranked in the 96th percentile in three-point attempt rate and the 99th percentile in both offensive rebounding percentage and turnover percentage. In other words, the Illini already emphasize what makes Coleman such an intriguing prospect.

They generated the nation’s second-highest adjusted offensive rating despite being almost allergic to fast-break points. Illinois averaged just 5.6 fast-break points per game, ranking in the third percentile nationally. The team also plays a conservative defense that disincentivizes gambling for steals and is meant to keep the team out of the rotation. As a byproduct, the Illini have been outside of the Top 100 in forced turnover rate in seven of Underwood’s nine seasons.

Instead, Underwood’s offense thrived through deliberate halfcourt execution, spacing, crashing the glass (a Top 20 in OREB% in four of eight years), and heavy doses of pick-and-roll offense.

The Illini have run a five-out system with bigs who can roll or pop, giving their ball-handlers an overwhelming spacing advantage. In back-to-back seasons, those offenses have been captained by high-volume pick-and-roll creators in Jakucionis and Wagler.

That responsibility will likely fall primarily to transfer guard Stefan Vaaks, who ranked in the 89th percentile in pick-and-roll ball-handler volume last season.

Early on, I’d expect Coleman to operate as Illinois’s secondary ball-handler and a movement shooter, attacking tilted defenses rather than being solely responsible for breaking them down himself.

That should play directly into his strengths as a scorer and passer.

Coleman can relocate around Vaaks-led actions, punish defenders for helping off him, attack closeouts, and keep possessions moving without requiring a high volume of touches.

His offensive rebounding should also translate particularly well in a five-out system, where his instincts and motor can punish defenses stretched away from the basket.

The more interesting question is how much Illinois eventually asks him to scale up.

With Vaaks’s addition and Andrej Stojakovic returning for another season, Coleman’s usage isn’t clear-cut. He could slide into a role closer to the one he occupied with BBE, functioning mostly as an off-ball scorer, or he could absorb more creation responsibility in David Mirkovic’s temporary absence.

Either outcome should tell us something valuable about his NBA projection.

In the former, Coleman gets an opportunity to prove his ancillary skills translate immediately. Can he remain an efficient shooter, crash the glass at an elite rate, buck the trend of the Illini’s anemic defensive playmaking, and consistently make the right decision without dominating the ball?

But the latter scenario is where Coleman could establish his ceiling.

If Illinois entrusts him with more pick-and-roll reps and he proves capable of consistently creating advantages against Big Ten defenders—rather than merely extending ones created for him—his pathway to the lottery and the Illini’s pathway to four first-round picks in a row become crystal clear.

One of my favorite parts about the NBA Draft evaluation process actually lies within my preseason walk-throughs. I take great joy in shuffling through the pack of talent entering college basketball, finding out which five-star prospects are worth the hype, which ones are a bit overrated, what incoming freshman is going to be this year’s sleeper prospect, what returner is ready to make the leap–you get the gist. However, one sector of basketball that I hadn’t dipped my toes in much to date has been JuCo hoops. Seemingly every year, multiple players from a two-year school emerge as a legitimate prospect or high-end college basketball talent. Despite this being a recurring trend, I have largely turned a blind eye to that position of evaluation. However, this year I wanted to branch out a bit and try something new, so I looked into the JuCo scene. The result: a lot of ugly hoops, high foul totals, raw talent, sloppy turnovers, poor big man play, and zone defense.

However, even through all the malodorous hoops, there were countless fun talents, five of whom I will highlight today. It is worth noting that this is not a ranking; these guys are likely not the five best players entering college basketball this upcoming season from a Juco or community college. If you want rankings, head over to Ersin Demir’s Substack; he has 10 times the Juco content you’ll find here, on top of player rankings. You probably should just give his page a look in general if you haven’t. But, with all that aside, let’s jump into this piece about five high-end talents buried in the teeth of Juco.

Trent Lincoln—TCU

Kicking things off, what better place—or rather player—to start with than the#1-ranked JuCo prospect in the 2026 class per 247Sports: Trent Lincoln. It will be a recurring theme throughout this piece where I tell you I was unfamiliar with a player before doing a dive on them, as three of the five players I will discuss today I found through doing research for another player. That said, Lincoln was not one of those three, as he was someone I was familiar with before breaking down the tape, and someone I walked away from my dive somewhat skeptical of.

But before I step into any of that skepticism, I want to dive into what makes him the player that he is, as it didn’t take long at all for me to realize why he had the billing that he did as a recruit. The first thing that came to mind when watching his tape, and something I couldn’t shake for the rest of the dive was his similarity to Arkansas guard Darius Acuff Jr. Now, typically, it’s difficult to compare a lefty (Lincoln) to a righty (Acuff), as the entirety of their approach is inverted because of the hand they favor. That said, it’s still hard to ignore how many commonalities they have. Acuff is an inch smaller and five pounds heavier, putting their body compositions in a very similar vein to one another. Along with that, they both move and play similarly—on both sides of the basketball—a comment that should frighten some.

That said, let’s dive into what he does well, which for those accustomed to Acuff’s game, is a lot of different things. For one, Lincoln’s sturdy, strong frame plays into his favor given its pairing with the pace he plays with. Lincoln does a great job at dipping high and low to deceive defenders in front of him, changing both the height of his hips and dribble in any given scenario. His go-to move does seem to be a left-to-right snatch crossover that he sets up with hesitation and momentum changes. Once around his defender, Lincoln is really creative with how he handles himself. He uses that aforementioned frame to eat up space given by the defender, allowing him to take more direct driving angles. This is a micro skill that he uses to his advantage in the pick-and-roll as well—an area that, overall, he does a great job in.

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The Ahead of the Curve Series marches on with Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) wings as we seek to identify potential risers and sleepers ahead of the season. We’ll get it going with a sophomore wing in Durham who could be an X-factor in a potential Duke title run.

Dame Sarr | Sophomore | 6’8” | 200 pounds | Duke

2025-2026 Stats: 6.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.4 BPG in 23.6 MPG (38 G)

2025-2026 Shooting Splits: 40.4/32.3/53.2

The Pitch

It was a bit of an up-and-down freshman campaign for Dame Sarr, but his immense defensive talent and quintessential NBA wing tools seemed to always find a way to impact winning for Duke more times than not. Sarr quite simply is one of, if not the best, collegiate perimeter defenders and defensive prospects slated for the 2027 draft.

I urge you to turn on the tape from the January 6th Duke-Louisville matchup where Duke overcame a nine-point halftime deficit that was sparked by Sarr switching on to the scorching hot Ryan Conwell and making it hell for him in the second half. Sarr brings the coveted ability to be a plus defender on the ball and at the point of attack while being a dynamic defensive playmaker thanks to his length, rangy athleticism, anticipation skills, and quick hands.

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To this point, I’ve covered 15 2027 NBA Draft Prospects I feel everyone needs to know coming into this season. In typical fashion, there are more players that I just couldn’t help but drop as names I am monitoring as sleepers who will make this season interesting to monitor for the year.

In this bonus edition of the Certified Sicko series, I’ll continue to break down each player’s special qualities, as well as the areas of improvement they’ll need to address moving forward.

We won’t waste time here with a prolonged intro—let’s get after it!

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Somto Cyril | Big | Junior | Miami

Somto (Somtochukwu) Cyril is a specimen of a basketball prospect. When someone looks at him for the first time, their mind can race with the type of player Cyril can become. He played for the Overtime Elite for years, dating back to when Amen and Ausar Thompson were within the program. His size and athleticism were tantalizing—even at a young age—and drew a number of college scouts and coaches to Atlanta to watch his skill and progression. After earning league accolades at OTE such as Defensive Player of the Year, Somto would be heavily recruited by a number of schools, such as Florida, Kansas, Tennessee, Indiana, and Memphis. At one point, Somto committed to Kentucky after an official visit, but he later decommitted and opted to play for the Georgia Bulldogs.

In his first season with Georgia, Cyril played in 33 games—averaging 14 MPG. Within that time on the court, he averaged 4.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, and 1.5 BPG, while shooting just under 63% from the floor. After his Freshman year, Somto returned for his sophomore campaign. His MPG jumped to 21.2, as he started in 32 of the 33 games he played. In those games, he averaged 9.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 2.2 BPG—scoring almost 76% from the floor. After going 22-11 and losing to Saint Louis in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament, Cyril entered the transfer portal, where he committed to play for Coach Jai Lucas at Miami.

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In Dusty May’s short time with Michigan, he managed to acquire big man talents who flourished in his system, impacted winning, and later became first round draft picks.

Danny Wolf came over to Ann Arbor from Yale as a “No Stone Unturned” prospect. May tapped into his playmaking upside, deploying him as a pick-and-roll ball-handler before he was selected late in the first round of the 2025 NBA Draft.

Aday Mara’s stock had floundered—he came in from Spain as a potential one-and-done, but then had two lackluster seasons at UCLA. Once he transferred to Michigan, May unlocked Mara as a two-way juggernaut with his rim protection, play-finishing, and passing. In the process, Michigan won a national championship, and Mara became a lottery pick.

Now, May is off to Dallas to help the Mavericks embark on a new era led by Cooper Flagg. Meanwhile, Michigan has another transfer big man with potential to see his stock rise in his first season in their program: Moustapha Thiam.

The 7’2” center out of Senegal is entering his junior year after spending his first two seasons with the University of Central Florida and Cincinnati. Thiam has untapped potential on both sides of the floor with his play-finishing, rim protection, scheme versatility, and willingness to expand the horizons of his game. Because of his combination of tantalizing measurements and intriguing skill set, Moustapha Thiam has a roadmap to join Wolf and Mara as Michigan big men who hear their names called in the first round.

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Diving into the skill set

Thiam’s primary source of impact is predicated around the rim on both sides of the floor.

Last season, Thiam shot 68.9% at the rim, per Synergy Sports. His size and length make him an obvious play-finisher when there’s downhill motion — whether it’s out of pick-and-rolls, dump-offs, or lobs when he’s lingering near the dunker spot. I’d like to see his shot diet shift a bit more to amplify his play-finishing. There’s a 10% gap between his post-ups—his most common play type at 32.2% of his possessions—and his second-most frequent play type (cutting). Regardless, his play-finishing should be a focal point of his offensive impact at Michigan and beyond due to his size, catch radius, and mobility as a cutter and roller.

Thiam has the tools to be a potent rim protector. His size and length can act in a really influential way, where he can block, alter, and deter shots. He moves his feet well and maintains active hands, which reinforces his presence in center-field or drop coverages. His active hands parlay into generating deflections and steals pretty well for a player his size, as he boasts a 1.6 Steal Percentage. From a production standpoint, his numbers require nuance. His Block Percentage slipped from 9.1 his freshman year to 6.8 last season, despite playing roughly the same amount of minutes. However, nuance is required; the raw numbers don’t always tell the full picture of what a player is asked to do within the scheme.

• Do they need to come up to the perimeter to defend the level of ball screens? If so, it’s going to pull them away from the basket from time to time.

• Are they asked not to chase blocks to avoid foul trouble? It’s worth noting that Thiam’s foul rate went down from 3.8 fouls committed per 40 minutes to 2.9.

In addition, block numbers don’t paint the full picture of the influence of their presence. Despite the decrease in his blocking production, opponents shot 8% worse at the rim when he was on the floor, converting at a 48.6% clip. The data and tools suggest that Thiam’s rim protection will be leaned on heavily in Michigan’s scheme, similar to how they deployed Mara.

As alluded to, Thiam doesn’t have to primarily be a drop-coverage big man. He’s mobile enough to come up to the level of ball screens. From there, his mobility and length can be valuable in space to either contest shots, cut off passing lanes, or stifle drives. These skills enable him to also hold his own on an island when caught in cross-matches. Nobody will mistake him for a switchable big man; he’s far from being a stiff, though. While his defensive presence may be the most pronounced near the basket, where he can haul in rebounds and influence shots at the rim, Thiam’s versatility will be a handy trait when it comes to adjustments and to his role viability at the NBA level.

Finally, Thiam’s game is intriguing to me, because he’s a 7’2” big man willing to expand the horizons of his game. Granted, it could be a fault, because his scoring efficiency for a player his size is unremarkable. Thiam had an Effective Field Goal Percentage of 54.9%— the third-lowest among high-major 7-footers last season. Nonetheless, he’s testing the capabilities of his touch. Per Synergy Sports, he generated 0.93 points per possession on runners, ranking in the 89th percentile in efficiency. It’s a nice move to use to beat defenses if they wall up the paint, as his shot is virtually unblockable at its apex. The push shot has become feathery, which empowers Thiam to test out the range a little bit. In addition, he’s willing to face up and rise over opponents in the mid-range—which he often showed when flashing to the free-throw line, catching the ball in the mid-post, or coming rolling off a screen.

He has tested the expansion of his shot heavily throughout his collegiate career, shooting 2.0 three-point attempts per game but converting on 29.0% of his attempts. In his final seven games of his season, he made 39.1% of his threes. The sample size is minuscule, so I don’t want to harp on the percentages. However, he attempted three or more triples in five of these games, while averaging 18.4 points per game.

I’m not suggesting that Thiam becomes a stretch big. In fact, I want him to continue increasing his presence as a rim-runner and play-finisher. However, the intrigue behind the expansion of his game is centered around developing counters and different ways to attack a defense. The outside shot makes his next move out of the pick-and-roll more unpredictable, which is also good for the ball-handler coming off the screen. The push shot near the basket and the mid-range jumper give him an outlet off the short roll or off flashes when the basket is walled up. These instances are sweet curveballs to his game that can add to his impact, as long as it doesn’t break the offensive flow or severely diminish his efficiency.

Thiam possesses an intriguing blend of two-way rim influence, mobility, and touch that should serve as a foundation for a big year in a new system.

Areas of Improvement

When assessing Thiam’s probability of being the next Wolverine transfer big man to jump to the league, these areas of his game stand out as necessary improvements.

• Shot selection: As alluded to, Thiam’s efficiency and shot diet leave a bit to be desired. While the expansion of his touch is quite fascinating, he can settle for contested shots away from the basket a bit too much, primarily when facing up in the post. Transferring his shot diet from heavier post-ups or more cutting and rolling should help boost his efficiency, especially with the playmaking prowess of senior Elliott Cadeau.

• Rebounding impact: Thiam is a sound rebounder, as he held an 8.8 Offensive Rebounding Percentage and 20.4 Defensive Rebounding Percentage. However, Cincinnati’s offensive rebounding rate increased by 4.6 when he was off the floor, per Hoop Explorer. Rebounding is a nuanced conversation on an individual basis. Chasing blocks and lurking around the perimeter can prevent a player from being in good rebounding position. The elite rebounding of one player could suppress those numbers for others in terms of raw numbers and on/off impact. Cincinnati had Baba Miller to lean on for work on the glass in non-Thiam minutes. To suggest improvement, added strength could tie into rebounding impact as well. Thiam isn’t a bad rebounder by any means. However, I’d like to see a more profound impact on the glass, primarily offensively.

• Strength: Thiam has imposing physical tools, but he can use a bit more functional strength. It stands out primarily when he’s backpedaling when defending drives, as he can lose balance if he faces contact from the driver. Given his defensive impact, it may be nitpicking. However, he needs to add some mass to better absorb contact inside.

Michigan has a recent history of elevating the talent of incoming big men who not only impact winning for their lone season with them, but also get the preparation for going into the NBA.

Moustapha Thiam checks a lot of boxes for the modern big man. He possesses advantageous size. He’s money when it comes to finishing plays. He’s a potent rim protector that’s capable of defending in space. His willingness to test the horizons of his game can determine where he ultimately lands within his band of outcomes.

With that said, Thiam easily has the tools to follow Danny Wolf and Aday Mara as Michigan transfer big men who make a resounding impact in Ann Arbor and catapult up into the first round of the incoming draft.

Don’t be surprised if Moustapha Thiam is a bona fide first round pick in the 2027 NBA Draft.

Share No Ceilings

The coming 2026-2027 season has drawn some skepticism from both draft fans and analysts alike. You’ll hear things along the lines of “I mean, sure, there will be NBA players come out of this class. But it’s not very good.”

When I hear sentiments such as that, it makes me feel some sort of amalgam of frustrated and sad, but—mostly—motivated. Comments like that gas me up—gas me up to find players who can shine and thrive. Not to say that I’m right and everyone else is wrong, but it’s worth remembering that thousands of basketball players are about to play a full season of basketball.

I get what people mean when they call a class “weak” or “not very good.” They mean there’s no Cooper Flagg or Victor Wembanyama standing at the top of it, already announcing himself as a generational talent.

Fair enough.

But in 2024, I—along with the rest of you—was told that class wasn’t any good either. And I’m pretty sure I just watched Stephon Castle play a significant role on a team that went to the NBA Finals. Which isn’t to say there weren’t good players in that class all along—just that they hadn’t been found yet.

So, what’s my point here?

What we’re going to do here and in the following piece is highlight 15 players I’m leaning on to help shape the depth and quality of the 2027 NBA Draft. What I’m not going to do is pick at the top of the board. Top freshmen prospects will be covered elsewhere within No Ceilings—whether that’s here on the website or across our podcasts. Even the top returning prospects in this class won’t be covered here. To show there are plenty of prospects worth getting excited about, I want to focus on players who are primed to make “The Leap” into the consciousness of the greater basketball community (maybe not for all of you Sickos out there).

Five prospects were covered in Part One, five in Part Two, and the final five are here in the finale.

Let’s dive in!

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Amani Hansberry | Forward | Senior | Virginia Tech

Amani Hansberry out of Virginia Tech is one of the more intriguing upperclassmen to monitor coming into the 2027 NBA Draft Cycle. Hansberry being mentioned here as a sicko prospect would likely have come as a shock after his senior season of high school hoops. Coming out of Maryland, Amani averaged 15.3 PPG, 12.0 RPG, and 4.0 APG in his final year of high school, and was named the 2023 Gatorade Player of the Year for the state of Maryland. The four-star recruit was a consensus Top 60 prospect among reputable grassroots scouting outlets.

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The 2027 NBA Draft has been touted as weak by many draft “experts.” Although I concur that this class may not provide the Victor Wembanyama, Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, or any pick of the “Big 3” from the 2026 class level of prospect, I also feel as if it goes without saying that even this class will have diamonds in the rough. Sure, it may be some time before we as a draft collective know who will be the crown jewel of the 2027 crop. For now, though, we can take a look down the board at some less-discussed names and shine some light on those players. A name that I have found myself consistently drawn to when examining this less-discussed group is St. Louis guard-forward hybrid Kellen Thames.

The incoming fifth-year senior is a player I have had my eyes on for a while, as growing up in the same area as him has allowed me to track his progress from the player he was in his early days to the guy he is now. Thames is a name that many of even college basketball’s biggest fans may not be very accustomed to; during his college tenure prior to last season, Thames had spent a fair amount of time off the court, with an odd set of injuries hindering his ability to find the floor. Last season, however, Thames finally got his chance to play a healthy season and proved himself to the umpteenth degree, despite coming off the bench in 31 of his 33 games. Now entering his final year of college, Thames has a real chance to build on the ridiculously impactful season he had last year and shoot his name into real draft talks. I know that it may seem a bit out of place to have a guy who is by all accounts a role player on an A-10 team firmly in NBA draft talks, as that is typically a title reserved for college basketball’s best talents. But with Thames, he’s one of those guys where once you have all the information laid out in front of you, it’s hard to deny that he’s a player who deserves a chance at the next level. So let’s dive in.

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Physicals

To the handful of people who are familiar with me and my evaluation process, you likely know that I don’t set a high bar for baseline physical and athletic attributes that a prospect has to cross. There have been countless examples of players who have been considered poor athletes outperforming their draft slot, with their draft stock often tanking in large part due to their physical shortcomings. On the flip side, there have been countless players drafted too high because of physical attributes, placing an expectation on a player who was likely never going to reach the heights of their pre-draft billing. Obviously, there is nuance to this conversation, like all others; I’m not saying that every poor athlete is exempt from criticism and every great athlete with a less-developed skill set is incapable of succeeding. But all of this is beside the point—sorry, I love this discussion.

For Thames—the player this article is about—it doesn’t take a sagacious basketball savant to figure out that he is a special, special athlete. The raw measurements aren’t groundbreaking, as he comes in at 6’6” and 210 pounds. There is no official measurement for wingspan to my knowledge, but it is evident that he has solid tonnage in that regard, likely hanging in that 6’8” to 6’11” range. We’ll call it 6’10”. All of those marks are adequate for a player in his archetype, but not exactly groundbreaking. Luckily, any ounce of impact that Thames loses size-wise, he makes up for tenfold in his athletic prowess. Much like his wingspan, there are no official testing numbers for Thames’s vertical, lane agility, sprint, etc., but all of that doesn’t matter when given the product we have been shown on tape. I’d personally estimate that his vertical is around 40 inches, a crazy mark to throw around, but not one that isn’t backed by merit. Thames is not afraid to dunk on anyone in his way, including 7’3” Aday Mara, something he won’t hesitate to show you. It isn’t just vertical prowess either, as Thames is just a great all-around athlete. His lateral movement patterns are insane and benefit every ounce of his game on both ends of the floor, along with his top-end speed and quickness, allowing him to either separate or recover lost ground.

Athleticism is the backbone of all Thames does on the floor, and it’s a superpower that he doesn’t take for granted. That said, there is a fair reason to be concerned as to whether that can translate up to the next level, and it has nothing to do with how it translates to the floor. Rather, Thames has had a fairly hearty history of injury. It isn’t exactly clear what caused his injury-riddled past and if it’s something that will continue to bug him as the years go on. Throughout the entirety of his college tenure, though, Thames has dealt with major cramping, which has occasionally built all the way up to full-body cramps—much like we saw last season from Darryn Peterson. This cramping issue kept him out for the majority of his freshman season, and he received a medical hardship waiver after appearing in just seven games. The issue also stunted his junior season, which saw him appear in just 17 games. These issues do seem to be a problem of the past for Thames, as last season he appeared in 33 of SLU’s 35 games, playing a pivotal role in each and every one. With all this in mind, I would also like to state that I am not a doctor — I have no way of knowing if these issues will continue to plague him for the rest of his career. This leaves me with no other option but to trust that he can battle through this and become the player I believe he can be—something I will hold onto until and hopefully through medicals in the pre-draft process.

Kellen by the Numbers

I’ve known the name “Kellen Thames” for a while now; he grew up in the same area I did, and the fact that we are roughly in the same age group led to us crossing paths a handful of times. With that said, I never really thought of Thames as an actual NBA prospect. For a little bit of background, he was a pure point guard in his high school days, playing a bit more of an off-ball role in the summer as a part of Brad Beal Elite. His claim to fame—at least on offense—has always been size-relative playmaking ability. With that said, the whole point guard schtick was always going to wear out, at least in a high-volume role once he got to the collegiate level, in large part due to his consistent shooting struggles. However, over his four-year, now going into five-year, college tenure, Thames has adapted his game to perfectly fit both what SLU needs him to do, along with maximizing his own ability. The results: breathtaking.

At face value, Thames’s numbers aren’t exactly world-beating. Last season he averaged just 9.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.3 steals per game, which is more than fine for a solid college player, but not numbers that scream NBA draft pick. On top of that, he has basically turned into a non-shooter, making just 25% of his three-pointers last season on just 1.2 three-point attempts per 100. For those who are optimistic about shooting development and use free-throw percentage as an indicator, I’m guessing you, too, won’t be very bullish as to who he can be. Thames shot 62.8% from the charity stripe last season, and he sits at 61.5% for his career. Free-throw shooting has been an issue for Thames dating all the way back to his high school days as well, where he shot 66.2% in his senior year.

Now, I know that all of this talk makes it seem as if Thames is just the typical “jump shot away” prospect, but what if I told you, even with him having all of these “touch flaws,” Thames still posted a 65.8% True Shooting Percentage last season? The mark is so good that it almost seems unrealistic given that his three-point shot is as shaky as it is, on top of his free-throw numbers being meh—and he gets to the line relatively often (42.5% FTR). The answer is derived from two areas: One, he finishes everything at the rim. Last season, Thames converted 70.9% of his shots at the rim, 21 of which were dunks, a number I don’t feel I have to explain as to why it’s impressive. The other thing he does well is the in-between game, converting 40% of his midrange attempts and ranking in the 97th percentile in midrange scoring efficiency. The way in which he does both is something I’ll dive into later on, but nonetheless, you see what I’m getting at here. Thames understands what he has to do to maximize his impact on the court and does it to the highest degree.

Graph via Hoop Explorer

However, given his shooting limitations, Thames has to find other ways besides scoring to make an impact. One of those ways his passing prowess. Even back in his high school days, Thames was never considered an excellent passer or playmaker, but it’s hard to deny that the reps he got playing that role back in the day have benefited his play style today. Thames is someone I would consider to be a high-end connective passer, more capable of protecting the ball and making the right reads. Last season he posted a 19.8% assist rate and a 14.7% turnover rate, both of which are adequate for a tertiary initiator. Along with that, he posted a 1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio and a 24.6% usage rate, highlighting that he can be functional in most roles. Again, later on I’ll explore the nuances of what makes him a solid playmaker, but I hope for now you can latch onto the point I’m trying to make.

Even with the offense being as fun as it is, easily the sexiest aspect of Thames’s analytical profile is the defensive side of the basketball. He causes havoc, logging a 4.2% steal rate. He hits the glass, evident by his 18.9% defensive rebound rate—something that translates to the offensive side, too, where he posts a 10.6% rebound rate.

Overall, he does what he can to make a heavy impact on this side of the floor. The best way I can sum it all up is with the “all-encompassing” numbers—things like the 5.8 OBPM and 4.6 DBPM he posted, which, when combined, makes for the fourth-highest BPM total among all mid-major players last season. He also had a 127.5 offensive rating to just a 92.4 defensive rating for SLU in minutes that he was on the floor. Also, he logged a Net RAPM of 5.4 last season. All of these numbers are complex in their own right, but help paint the picture of just how good SLU was on both ends of the floor in the minutes that Thames played.

Chart via Barttorvik

However, it’s one thing to dump numbers and force you to feel some kind of way about a player. It’s another thing to back it all up with things that he showed on the court, so let’s get into the fun stuff.

Unique Skill Set

With the analytics put to the side, it’s time to dive into the meat and potatoes of what makes Thames the player he is. As great as the numbers are, it isn’t exactly out of place for a prospect to have an outlier season in a certain micro-skill that boosts their numbers to heights they can’t sustain—hence why it’s important to watch games, to understand how the environment around a player both positively and negatively affects them. Along with getting a grasp of what things a certain player does and scaling it to a greater sample to see if it’s sustainable. In Thames’s case, I would be shocked if what he does offensively takes a major hit next season, as his impact on a game-to-game basis is almost entirely removed from how often and efficiently he can put the ball in the basket.

What he does do is complex and unique, making him a somewhat difficult prospect to evaluate, given that there have not been many players who do the things he does at the scale he does. On the ball, Thames taps into his point guard background a lot. Having the kind of handle he does is an amazing micro-skill to have given the fact he isn’t asked to do it on every rep. Most of his scoring production comes in the full court, with Thames ranking in the 92nd percentile in transition scoring efficiency. He does a great job at leveraging his speed with some slick change of pace, making it easy for him to put defenders on their heels before snatching a cross and blowing past them to the basket. Thames is pretty crafty with the ball as well, using everything from push crosses to in-and-outs, cross jabs, and hesitations—basically any move that requires a sudden change of pace, he excels at.

In the halfcourt, most of his scoring production is derived from cutting or out of structured sets. Thames ranks in just the 54th percentile as a cutter per Hoop Explorer, but that’s one of those numbers that I can’t back in good faith, given what I’ve seen from him on film. Thames does a great job at silently communicating with ball-handlers, finding the right time to dive to the basket for what is, most of the time, an easy two. On the occasions where he and the ball handler aren’t on the same page, or if the ball is reset for whatever reason, Thames does a great job at finding open space and staying in it, waiting for an angle to be created for him to find an easy two. The best way I can describe that ability is a receiver sitting in open space against zone coverage, waiting for the quarterback to find the passing angle to rifle said player the ball. Obviously, it’s at a much smaller scale on a basketball court; most of the time, ball-handlers don’t have four to five 260-plus-pound men trying to find any way to get to them and take their head off, but crazy things do happen on a basketball court. Nonetheless, cutting is an important skill to have, and it’s one that Thames has; he also understands when to clear out when his time in a certain spot has expired. This cutting prowess also allows SLU to play him in the dunker’s spot a fair amount, something you see NBA teams do with guys like the Thompson twins—players who have similar skill sets to Thames in many ways.

Cutting isn’t the only way he can make an impact in the halfcourt either, as once again, his rare blend of ball-handling, positional size, and athleticism makes him a somewhat versatile piece to use in ball-screen sets. SLU used him as both the screener and the ball handler in the pick-and-roll, allowing him to create scoring opportunities for himself or others in a variety of ways. As a screener, SLU gave him plenty of chances in the short roll, giving him a somewhat clean look at the basket with some room to operate. The Billikens also got a bit frisky at times, letting Thames get some looks in Spain ball-screen sets, which sadly rarely worked given his size limitations relative to what was asked of him in that scenario. As for him as a ball-screen ball-handler, it was pretty basic stuff. SLU would often set the screens high for him, giving him a running start well beyond the three-point line, which in turn often dragged multiple defenders with him en route to the basket. Because of this, Robbie Avila—the man who goes by many aliases—got plenty of easy pick-and-pop looks on the perimeter, created by Thames’s downhill pressure in ball-screen sets. SLU also allowed Thames to initiate a lot of its baseline and sideline out-of-bounds sets, giving him the first look out of the inbounds and letting him make the decision for the action around him. Creativity kills, and that creativity is exactly how Josh Schertz and the rest of the Billikens staff were able to maximize him in the halfcourt.

That said, process is one thing, results are another—and although the two often correlate a fair amount, circumstances make situations. In Thames’s case, the analytics certainly point to him both having great process and the results to back it up. So, continuing on the repetition here, let’s dive into the process of how he achieves his results—stick with me now. Let’s start with scoring, which as I mentioned earlier is complex in its own right. Thames has a lot of craft to work with when it comes to putting the ball in the basket. I previously mentioned how he gets to his spots; when it comes to actually completing plays once he gets where he wants, though, Thames is arguably just as advanced—if not more. The rim finishing in particular is just spectacular; it’s truly chef’s kiss stuff. Multiple things go into making a great finisher, with a few of the most important factors being control or craft on the gather, taking proper finishing angles, stability in the air, and touch around the basket. Thames checks all of those boxes. On his gathers, Thames has an innate ability to stop on a dime or continue to accelerate through, making it easy for him to use Euro steps and spin moves at full speed to set up Pinoy or slow-step gathers later in the game. Along with that, Thames is no stranger to exploring all kinds of pickups either, using low and high gathers to his advantage depending on what is taking place around him.

Once he’s ready for takeoff is where the gears really start turning, as Thames is a truly intelligent finisher. It’s commonplace for great athletes to struggle finishing at the rim in their college and early NBA days. For the majority of those players, they have been able to get away with out-jumping whoever is in front of them en route to the rim. However, at a certain point, athletes become too good, and bigs become too—big— forcing young players to add nuance to their takeoff points and in-air finishing angles. In Thames’s case, none of this is an issue. In seemingly every rep, he knows how high to jump, he knows where to jump, and he keeps the ball in a controlled enough manner so that he can react to any in-air craziness that takes place. He isn’t afraid of contact, consistently showing the ability to play through it, and does a great job finishing almost every shot right at the rim. Thames knows when to rise up and finish over a defender, and he knows when to duck under and finish below the rim. He does miss the occasional bunny, most of the time as a result of a difficult finishing angle—which is something that will happen from time to time. But in his case, the 70% conversion rate at the rim absolutely speaks for itself.

As for some other aspects of his scoring, I really like Thames’s willingness to take and make floaters. Because he gets so creative with his paths to the basket, on occasion he will have to rise up and push a shot over the rim. Per Hoop Explorer, Thames hung around 58.8% on shots in floater range, which checks out with what the eye test tells me. He will also shoot catch-and-shoot midrange shots on occasion, as he does get a fair amount of looks in the intermediate area given his use as a mini hub and as a short-roll guy. Those shots don’t drop at nearly the same clip, making just two of his nine attempts in that area. But, given his lackluster outside touch and inconsistency at the charity stripe, that mark comes as no surprise.

In terms of the passing, I really do love what Thames does. I’ll once again reiterate that most of his value as a passer comes as a connector, but that’s not to say he doesn’t do some fun stuff. I mentioned earlier the value he brought in pick-and-pop sets as a ball-handler, with a large part of that value coming from the fact that he could read the floor in front of him. Thames does a great job at playing off two feet and pivoting through space to find the open guy, along with swinging overhead passes to the pop man and creating an easy shot. The same control that Thames displays on drives as a scorer reflects on his downhill passing creation as well. He does a great job of skipping quick passes into tight spaces, reading the low man to make easy dump-offs.

The only real gripes I have with him as a playmaker are the lack of ability to make high-end reads and the sometimes silly turnovers that he creates. High-end passing feel is not something I expect out of everyone, and Thames is no different, but it is no secret that he struggles to read the weak side at times. There were a couple of instances in his film where it looked as if he flat-out didn’t see a weak-side rotation coming in, leading him to throw a pass that was easily tipped. Working hand in hand with that is his love for jump passes, which, when they work, look great, but when they don’t, he can get caught in the air, panicking for an easy out. Besides that, there isn’t much to nitpick at here. On occasion, he will get a bit too ambitious in grab-and-go, pulling a rebound down and instantly turning into a defender, resulting in a turnover. But on the flip side, that same ambition often gives him a leg up, as he is able to instantly transfer his momentum heading in the other direction, pulling him ahead of the pack.

Overall, Thames has a really fun offensive profile. We could sit here all day and point out the fact that he doesn’t have this or that, nitpicking at him not having star qualities. But the sell for him isn’t that he’s walking into your franchise and taking it over. In an ideal world, he can figure out the shooting and turn into at least a willing perimeter threat, which in turn gives him a bit more lineup flexibility. However, odds are he won’t ever reach that height, and what we are left with on offense is this jumble of fun skills that requires a creative, offensive-minded coach to put together. A daunting task, sure — but one worth the risk given the upside.

Defensive Stalwart

I hate to say this, but it couldn’t be more true: I will think less of you as a person if you don’t chronically yearn for upscale, elite defensive tape. I’m sorry, I can’t help feeling this way, but it’s true. It’s a pinnacle part of my love for the sport, and I am left with no choice but to feel these sorts of things. All jokes aside, who doesn’t love an elite defender? Unless it’s coming at the expense of your own team, it’s hard not to enjoy the process of watching one player cut the water off from another team’s offense, purely because they take the other team’s offensive engine out of the game. It’s poetry. Luckily, for those of you who also enjoy this brand of basketball, Thames provides just that—and adds a bit of flair in the process.

For his defensive tape specifically, I would love to start off the ball, because Thames is a textbook weakside defender. He keeps the proper amount of space between his man and the ball, dependent on the matchup, of course. He stays flat to the baseline with his weakside rotations, not helping up on drives or tagging in places he’s not supposed to be. The best part of it all is his ability to find his man once the shot goes up, hit him, and crash the glass to secure a board. Not to mention, if the ball does get swung his way, Thames takes a very disciplined approach to his closeout technique. You won’t find him jumping for joy at a simple pump fake or closing out on a bad line. Rather, he keeps his balance and closes out with intent in order to stay engaged with the action at hand. This near-perfect weakside approach does break down from a technical perspective when he is positioned in gaps, but it by no means diminishes the positive value he has. Thames has the classic inverted footwork when guarding gaps, positioning his chest to the ball and his near-side shoulder to his man. Now, for the vast majority of basketball players and human beings in general, this approach will get you burned, as it takes both schematic congruity with the rest of the team, along with the instincts and athleticism necessary from the player in order to recover for lost ground in technique. In Thames’s case, the perfect storm crashes together, allowing him to play as ambitiously as his heart desires.

The result of this approach is a lot of positive activity. Thames can consistently predict passes, jumping lanes, which, paired with his transition shot-creation ability, makes him an easy bet to turn defense into offense. Along with the event creation, Thames is able to remain within the structure of the defense, properly handling gap coverage when drives are funneled to him, along with rarely ever getting backcut or blindsided by a screen. The only times he really ever gets burned is when he does get a bit too aggressive, something opposing teams can scheme for, drawing up offensive sets to combat it. Thames is still a good enough defender to adapt on the fly, but it’s not uncommon to see him get beat on something silly early in the game. Nonetheless, he functions as an elite defender away from the ball.

As for his on-ball defense, it’s hard to pick out many flaws. In fact, his approach to guarding the ball is so pure and just a joy to watch. Look at me, fanboying over defensive technique. Thames is truly special, however. He gets low in his stance, sliding his feet and gliding across lanes to catch guys with his chest. He takes proper angles to cut off drives; he knows how to recover when he’s beat, doing things like punching hips, winding his stride, cross-stepping—doing all of this while staying in proper position. So many times when watching guys try and attack him, you’ll think, “Oh, he got a step on him,” or, “Oh, he found a bit of space.” Then you take a moment and realize that the step he gained and the space he found all funneled the ball handler into either a crowded area or the short corner, neither of which provides great scoring angles. Along with that, Thames knows when to take his risks. His sturdy base allows him to hold his ground when engaged on drives, meaning that his hands can poke at the ball to keep pressure on ball handlers. Thames does a great job at timing downward dribbles and close-to-body gathers, both of which are easy targets for quick deflections. And much like what he does away from the ball, Thames can turn these deflections into offense moving the other direction, as once that ball is free, he knows whether to attack it to start his own offense or run the floor and hope an outlet passer finds him.

Anyway you cut it, Thames can really guard. Whether an NBA team chooses to rewire some details of his approach in order to better fit their specific scheme is obviously a preference to monitor on a team-by-team basis, but I have no doubts that no matter what spot he lands in, if given the opportunity, Thames will provide very positive defensive value.

What’s Next?

Projecting forward is a difficult thing to do, as even though SLU’s roster is filled to the brim with all 15 roster spots being occupied, it’s still unclear as to how anything will shake out. Last season, coach Schertz headed what was a by-committee system, relying on eight guys to carry the team’s load. Now, looking ahead to next season, the Billikens will likely have to do the same, as unless someone takes a huge leap forward as a creator, SLU lacks a true go-to guy. Guys like Trey Green, Amari McCourty, Ishan Sharma, and Quinten Jones are all returners who played more minutes than Thames last season and will likely play similar roles to the ones they did last season. Along with that, Elijah Strong and Alon Michalei are incoming transfers who will also be competing for playing time, further proving the point that this will likely be a by-committee system.

With that said, Thames is just one of those guys you can’t keep off the floor. More than likely, with a healthy offseason under his belt, Thames will be competing with the likes of Sharma, McCourty, and Strong for a starting spot, one that likely only two of them can occupy. Nonetheless, Thames should be given starter-level minutes as long as he stays on the same track he was on last year. Who knows how high he could fly if some other things started clicking?

For example, if for whatever reason the shot comes around and he’s shooting even a respectable amount of threes, Thames could really be cooking as both a prospect and college basketball talent. Say that improves on top of an improved pace as a halfcourt ball-handler—which in turn should open up more scoring opportunities for himself and others—and we could be looking at Thames being a first round pick. Now, of course, this whole dialogue centered around “ifs” is incredibly wishful thinking, and odds are we don’t see him improve drastically in all these given areas. However, as long as Thames continues to progress along the path he has been on and stays healthy, he should be an easy bet as a second round sleeper in what could be a talent-depleted 2027 NBA Draft.

Share No Ceilings

The start of the 2026-27 season is approaching, and with it comes a wave of excitement around the draft space for the players who are about to make their college debuts. Scouts around the world are preparing for the influx of new talent by poring over high school film, FIBA tape, and AAU tournaments to try to get a handle on the new kids on the block.

However, there’s much more to the NBA Draft than just the fresh new faces—which can lead to the spotlight fading away from some of the returning players.

For the past few years, I’ve been compiling this Editor’s Notes series on some of the players who have gotten less time in the No Ceilings written spotlight during the season. This offseason edition is a little bit different; I’ve decided instead to revisit five of my favorite prospects who ended up withdrawing from the 2026 NBA Draft. Two of them have found new homes in the transfer portal, while the other three remained with their blue-blood squads from last year in the hopes of making more noise in the NCAA Tournament. All five of them have pivotal seasons ahead of them.

Simply put, I have some notes.

Let’s start with the player I might be more bullish on than anyone else covering the NBA Draft.

Tounde Yessoufou

As I wrote about a few months ago, it is pretty much impossible for me to be objective about Tounde Yessoufou. I’ll do my best for the sake of the article, but I think there are plenty of unbiased reasons to be excited about what he might be able to do with St. John’s and Rick Pitino this coming season.

Yessoufou, the all-time scoring leader in California state high school history, transferred from Baylor after setting the freshman scoring record for that program. He is already an NBA-ready athlete with a chiseled frame who can get to the rim almost at will. He’s not just a downhill force, though; he’s also a master of the mid-range game:

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I’m not sure that any position in professional basketball continuously demands as much versatility and evolution as the center position. The skills and traits demanded from it have ranged all over the place to such an extreme that we now have myriad archetypes littered and thriving throughout the league. There is no “right answer” for what type of center you have to have to win now. The diversity of the position is now also leaking into the youth levels where we’re seeing more traditional bigs, pure stretch bigs, defensively focused centers, Swiss Army knives, and so many other frameworks. It’s a really exciting time to scout big men, and this year, college basketball has a lot of incoming freshmen who could prominently feature in the 2027 NBA Draft.

Babatunde Oladotun – Maryland

It’s impossible to watch Baba Oladotun and not be captivated. His combination of size, skill, and fluidity is enticing and the exact concoction that makes highlight videos go crazy. Unfortunately, that captivation often leads to you expelling numerous “what the f*** was that?” exclamations in myriad tones every time you watch him.

If Oladotun finds any sort of consistency in his game, he could be an extraordinary player. Being able to handle the ball like he can at his size is a legitimate separator from most of his peers his size. He can push in transition, attack closeouts, create out of the short roll, and string together counters. He can get a little loose with it at times in traffic and has to get much better dealing with physicality, but he’s so far ahead of most players his size at this stage. The fact that he can confidently execute a pick-and-pop, hit his defender with a shot fake, attack downhill, spin off of the help defender, and then finish with a dunk is so much fun.

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Welcome back to the Ahead of the Curve series as we close out the ACC guards! This series is designed to identify prospects by conference who evaluators, decision-makers, and fans should be tracking as potential risers and sleepers this cycle.

As a reminder: To qualify, I’m focusing on those who are projected to be second round picks and undrafted free agents (UDFA) to begin the 2026-2027 season. I’ll make the pitch for each prospect, accompanied by three questions to monitor. Let’s get started with a guard who’s no stranger to the ACC.

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Naithan George | Senior | 6’3” | 185 pounds | Pittsburgh

2025-2026 Stats: 10.9 PPG, 3 RPG, 5.4 APG, 1.5 SPG in 32 MPG (32 G)

2025-2026 Shooting Splits: 40.5/29.3/83.3

The Pitch

After finishing first (6.5 APG) and fourth in the ACC in assists (5.4 APG) over the past two seasons, Naithan George has solidified himself amongst the premier playmakers and facilitators in the conference. He gets it done by being a connective passer featuring swings, skips, and hit-aheads, but is at his best operating ball screens where he can play in the pocket, throw lobs, and make live dribble reads.

George isn’t just looking to facilitate out of the pick-and-roll. It’s also where he’s the most comfortable getting to his scoring spots from, particularly the mid-range pull-up (via Synergy 57.7 FG% on 52 off-the-dribble jumper attempts). George’s repeatable mechanics, midrange shotmaking, and 83.3% free-throw mark are all encouraging touch indicators for a much-needed shooting leap (29.3% three-point shooter on 3.8 3PA last season).

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The coming 2026-2027 season has drawn some skepticism from both draft fans and analysts alike. You’ll hear things along the lines of “I mean, sure, there will be NBA players come out of this class, but it’s not very good.”

When I hear sentiments such as that, it makes me feel some sort of amalgam of frustrated and sad, but—mostly—motivated. Comments like that gas me up—gas me up to find players who can shine and thrive. Not to say that I’m right and everyone else is wrong, but it’s worth remembering that thousands of basketball players are about to play a full season of basketball.

I get what people mean when they call a class “weak” or “not very good.” They mean there’s no Cooper Flagg or Victor Wembanyama standing at the top of it, already announcing himself as a generational talent.

Fair enough.

But in 2024, I—along with the rest of you—was told that class wasn’t any good either. And I’m pretty sure I just watched Stephon Castle play a significant role on a team that went to the NBA Finals. Which isn’t to say there weren’t good players in that class all along—just that they hadn’t been found yet.

So, what’s my point here?

What we’re going to do here and in the following piece is highlight 15 players I’m leaning on to help shape the depth and quality of the 2027 NBA Draft. What I’m not going to do is pick at the top of the board. Top freshmen prospects will be covered elsewhere within No Ceilings—whether that’s here on the website or across our podcasts. Even the top returning prospects in this class won’t be covered here. To show there are plenty of prospects worth getting excited about, I want to focus on players who are primed to make “The Leap” into the consciousness of the greater basketball community (maybe not for all of you Sickos out there).

Five prospects were covered in Part One, five will be covered here in the second part, and five in the finale.

Let’s dive in!

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Nolan Minessale | Guard/Wing | Junior | Marquette

Nolan Minessale tops the fictional list of “Low Major Prospect that People Can’t Wait to See Move Up a Level.”From Wisconsin, Nolan played his high school ball for Marquette University High School (I know), where he was named to multiple All-Conference Teams and a State Championship. Despite some success, Minessale wasn’t really recognized as an anything-star recruit by many reputable grassroots outlets. This led to him committing to play for St. Thomas. As a freshman, Nolan led the Summit League in blocks as a full-time starter. He returned for his sophomore season, where he averaged almost 20 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.3 APG, 1.6 SPG, and 0.6 BPG. This came on splits of 51/31/75. Minessale led the Tommies to their second consecutive 24-10 season, and then hit the transfer portal. Nolan opted to return to Wisconsin to play for Marquette University proper, for a team that is full of interesting and unique players.

What’s Working

Defensive Playmaking

One of the best parts of Minessale’s game is his defense. When you look at the defensive metrics, he checks a lot of boxes. He recorded a Steal Percentage of 3.1 and a Block Percentage of 2.0 as a 6’5” player. His length and strength allow him to stand out as a defender, as he is listed at around 200 pounds. Nolan has smart, quick hands that allow him to put his hands in the cookie jar to force turnovers on digs and poke-outs. He’s also vertically gifted, and he uses his lift and length to be a bother as a help-side rim protector. He can contest with either hand, and slides his feet very well for a backcourt player. Nolan’s anticipation and ability to toggle between his man, the ball, and the hoop is something you just can’t find every day at his position. For a guard/wing listed at 6’5” to lead any conference in college in blocks is quite an accomplishment, and that is something Minessale has done.

At-Rim Finishing

Because Nolan Minessale is such a tough and rugged athlete, he has proven to be a creative and resourceful finisher at the basket. Nolan’s squared-off upper body lets him absorb a high degree of contact. This is exemplified in the 27 And-Ones he recorded last season. While the physicality of his game stands out, Minessale also plays with a tremendous amount of patience. Despite being a backcourt player, Nolan plays well off two feet and has some slick counters to poke and prod at his defender. When you think about it, how many guards and wings are accustomed to being bludgeoned on the block? Of course, Nolan can make his way to the rim off of the bounce. When you look at how he ranked in the 88th percentile as the pick-and-roll ball-handler, and in the 88th percentile in scoring in isolation, Minessale can get to and score in a number of ways.

Decision-Making

For as much as Minessale is involved in the offense, he is very good at taking care of the ball. On his 31.6 Usage Percentage, Nolan had a 25.9 Assist Percentage to just a 13.7 Turnover Percentage. What makes his connectivity so impressive is that Nolan is utilized in so many areas on the court. When he’s backing other backcourt players down, Minessale can find open teammates for kickouts and on cuts. When he is handling the ball, he does a good job of finding guys out on the perimeter. He does a very good job of surveying the court when he is involved in the second action within the offense too, and does a solid job of making those next-level passes. While he isn’t likely to be the sort of player who shoulders the burden of the offense moving forward, Nolan is going to be additive as a processor and decision-maker for Marquette.

What Needs Work

Shooting

I covered this in Part One of this series, but pointing out that a player could improve as a shooter here isn’t meant to take an easy way out or to just go for the low-hanging fruit. But, especially for his position, Nolan Minessale really needs to make strides on his outside shot. Nolan shot 30% from deep on over eight attempts per 100 possessions. When looking at the shot on film, there isn’t a lot that looks out of place—speaking to just the body motion. The shot grouping is sporadic; it’s almost as if the strength or energy on the ball isn’t consistent. He does get a lot of lift on his jumper too, which makes him hard to block. The shot is high-arcing, which is sometimes a tell on a player’s touch—a high arc gives the ball a larger surface area to fall through for the shooter. His shot does take time to get off, which is likely the reason why he hasn’t found a way to hit it on the move. Nolan is one of those players who shot better when guarded as opposed to left open—which is always a tricky proposition to take a bet on.

Rebounding

For a player who is as tough as Nolan is—and as close as he likes to get to operate around the basket—he isn’t as high-level of a rebounder as one might think. His 13.8 Defensive Rebounding Percentage is fine, but his 2.9 Offensive Rebounding Percentage is slightly below average relative to players who have gone before him. With him playing at Marquette this season, there is a strong probability that there could be other areas of the game where he can expend his energy. Being able to be an impactful rebounder for his position would give Minessale the chance to separate himself from other guard/wing combo prospects.

What to Expect

As I touched on earlier, this season with the Golden Eagles is going to be the highest level of basketball that Nolan Minessale has ever played. With that in mind, knowing exactly what to expect is almost an impossibility. His strength and basketball IQ open a door to incredible possibilities. The way that he commits on the defensive end of the floor should endear him to the coaching staff and to his teammates. Combining that with his at-rim finishing and decision-making, there are ways that he can prove to be valuable on both ends of the floor. In Part One, I spoke to the fact that the players I’m highlighting are prospects who have drawn parallels to NBA players.

Minessale is interesting in a way because, analytically, his sophomore season had some similarities with Dylan Harper and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. His free-throw percentage, assists, and efficiency were close to what Harper did with Rutgers—he even showed a stronger free-throw rate and was better on his two-pointers. Harper did clear him on his threes and overall offensive contribution, though. For “NAW,” both had similar outputs in assists and steals. Nolan did have a stronger free-throw rate, but Alexander-Walker did generate more defensive events and was a better shooter. Those ceilings are very high for Minessale to clear, but he also put up a season similar to that of Tristen Newton when he was playing for ECU. Perhaps the journey for Nolan could be similar—or better! That said, it’s worth having him in second round territory to kick off the year considering the level of talent he’s come close to reaching, as well as what the film has shown.

Jackson Holcombe | Wing/Forward | Junior (RS) | Utah

Jackson Holcombe is a player who has punched his way up into being a new addition to the Utah Utes. As a high school player, he led Timpanogos High School to back-to-back 5A Championships. He was also named to the All-State First Team in his senior season. Following a successful high school stint, Jackson went on a two-year mission for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. After completing the mission, Holcombe went to play for Utah Valley. He redshirted during the 2023-2024 season, then debuted in the 2024-2025 season with the Wolverines. Jackson played 31 games—starting once—and played under 15 MPG. Last year, he became a full-time starter, averaging 16.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 3.6 APG, 2.2 SPG, and 1.3 BPG on 30.1 MPG. After a breakout season, Jackson transferred but stayed in-state, committing to Utah.

What’s Working

Defensive Impact

For pretty obvious reasons, Jackson Holcombe is a player whose defensive film sneaks up on you—he appears unassuming upon first glance. However, it doesn’t take long when watching the tape to see how impactful he is. His footwork is remarkably sound and is what allows him to make such great plays on the ball. He does an awesome job of using his chest to wall off drives, and he can get vertical quickly—avoiding fouls and being a difficult obstacle to score over. He makes timely swipes and digs at the ball that result in steals and poke-outs. Not only can he block and contest shots, but Jackson is also adept at making clean rotations away from the ball to jump passing lanes and tip passes. Statistically, Holcombe was one of only three players (Allen Graves and Miles Byrd) who had a Steal Percentage and a Block Percentage of at least 4.0 among all players with a Minutes Percentage of at least 40.

Connectivity

For a player who spends a significant amount of time with the ball in his hands, Jackson Holcombe makes smart decisions as a passer. He is a great rebounder at his position, which he uses well in grab-and-go opportunities. Once he turns the corner after securing the ball, Holcombe keeps his head up to sling hit-ahead passes for easy transition points. Once the offense slows down, he can still find his teammates at a high level. He can make drives at the basket with his head up, and deliver kickouts into the shooting pocket of the open man. Utah Valley would also get the ball to Jackson on the elbow or on the block, and let him survey the court to spray the ball out to an open shooter from deep. He posted an Assist Percentage of 23.5 on 27.3 Usage, as well as a 1.5 Assist-to-Turnover Ratio. This level of decision-making is another wrinkle to his profile that makes him a fun sleeper to monitor.

Finishing

Jackson Holcombe is a consistent and dependable finisher. He is not one to shy away from contact, ranking in the 80th percentile in the percentage of his shots taken at the rim—66.5% of his shots, in fact, were at the rim. Holcombe shot 59.4% at the rim, which graded out as “Good,” per Synergy. Jackson’s strength that he shows on the defensive end also appears within his at-rim finishing. His squared-off upper body allows him to maintain his line of attack when he is driving to the basket. He does a great job of shielding the ball away from the defense while still being able to finish with contact. In fact, Jackson led his team by recording 11 more And-Ones than anyone else on his team last season, with 29. Holcombe’s finishing goes beyond being just a crafty finisher; he can finish above the rim. He makes timely cuts to the basket, as well as working his way around defenders, and uses his lift to dunk the ball. Jackson dunked the ball nine times on nine attempts in the half court—which is a great indicator of his finishing ability, even in a congested environment.

What Needs Work

Shooting

What happens to be Jackson Holcombe’s biggest area for improvement is his shooting ability. Last year, Jackson shot just over 15% from deep on just two attempts per 100 possessions. Both of those metrics are severely below average. Once you look at all of Holcombe’s shots from a season ago (it won’t take long; there are only 38), his mechanics don’t appear to be all that bad. The base is a skosh too skinny—but nothing alarming. Sometimes his feet are one in front of the other. HOWEVER, it’s not a horrendous shot at all. It’s a higher-arcing shot, which does present a larger area for the ball to drop through. There isn’t a funky hitch, there isn’t a knee-knock, the hands don’t flare out. It just hasn’t gone in. Honestly, there could be some small-sample-theory in play here, as Holcombe shot 33% the year before on just nine attempts. Maybe we just need to see Jackson shoot a little more to get a feel for how poor (or good) of a shooter he really is.

What to Expect

Jackson transferring from Utah Valley to the University of Utah is yet another example of a bigger fish in a bigger pond. He has a great opportunity to prove how scalable his skills are. Typically, rebounding and the ability to read the game travel well—which is great news for a player like Holcombe. His rebounding score for his position grades out well for my tracking—where he ranks in the 95th percentile in his position group. His size and effort should endear him to his coaches and his teammates. He is selfless and is more than willing to make the best play for the team—not just himself. I would expect Jackson to take more looks from beyond the arc in order to maintain spacing for others and to help the interest level from NBA teams.

When looking at how Holcombe produced last season in comparison to players who have come before him, he’s gotten close to some interesting names. Kenneth Lofton Jr. may not be the name you want to look to for comparisons in terms of body composition, but he was remarkably productive for Louisiana Tech. Both were very good in terms of assists and were similarly efficient inside the three-point line. Jackson Holcombe showed better consistency as a decision-maker. He was also stronger on the offensive glass. Cody Martin is another player who isn’t going to be at the front of the casual basketball fan’s mind, but he has enjoyed a seven-year NBA career. Identifying a player who blocked shots, moved the ball, and scored as efficiently as Cody did—while showing more aggressiveness on his drives and rebounding is how NBA teams win on the margin. Holcombe also drew the closest comparison to what David Punch did at TCU last season, and Punch is a player many like as a potential NBA prospect. With all of these factors, Jackson should be in mid-to-late second round range with another year of eligibility remaining.

Zoom Diallo | Guard/Wing | Junior | Kentucky

It’s interesting that a player who was once the top recruit out of the state of Washington—earning Gatorade Player of the Year honors in that state—has fallen out of the greater consciousness of the basketball community. It’s not unique to Zoom Diallo, but it has happened. Zoom came out in the 2024 class as a Top 50 recruit among the majority of grassroots scouting outlets. A McDonald’s All-American and multiple-time state champion, Diallo was recruited by some high-level programs such as Arizona, Kansas, Alabama, Gonzaga, UCLA, and USC. Zoom opted to stay home and play for Washington. He started 22 of 31 games as a freshman for the Huskies. He returned for his sophomore season and averaged 15.7 PPG, 4.5 APG, and 3.9 RPG on splits of 49/32/83. After the 16-17 finish to the season, Diallo entered the transfer portal and committed to play for the Kentucky Wildcats for the 2026-2027 season.

What’s Working

Advantage Creation

Zoom Diallo is a talented shot-maker and has an ability to work his way into advantageous positions. Diallo is more than capable as a ball-handler—a player who works his way to his favorite places by keeping the ball on the string and manipulating defenders around his teammates. He spent over 37% of his offensive possessions operating as a pick-and-roll ball-handler. On those possessions, Zoom ranked in the 87th percentile on points-per-possession out of that play type. His length at his size helps him keep the ball low to the ground. Diallo loves to work his way into the midrange, where he has been quite efficient. On his long two-pointers, Zoom shot just under 49% on 195 attempts. This shot is often looked at as a look that “unlocks” other aspects of scoring and passing. With his strength and ability to stop on a dime, Diallo forces his man—and the rest of the defense—to stay ready for a shot to go up at any time.

Passing

On top of being capable of snaking his way to his favorite spots, Zoom Diallo has shown a true knack for making sound plays as a passer. Zoom’s decision-making goes far beyond making safe “east-to-west” passes to string a play along. He does a good job of advancing the ball toward the basket. I touched on it earlier, but Diallo’s tendency and desire to operate in that midrange area of the floor opens up easier passing lanes. A collapsing defense can give openings for entry passes to bigs, lobs to cutting teammates, or even those escape-route passes to open people for a three-point opportunity. Zoom’s 30.3 Assist Percentage came on a Usage Rate of 28.5. This sort of decision-making capability provides much-needed relief within various lineups and gives more offensive pathways for Diallo to be of use.

What Needs Work

Floor Spacing

Zoom’s shooting isn’t a consistent weapon as of today. He shot under 32% from deep (which is below average) on 4.4 attempts per 100 possessions. The fact that Diallo hasn’t put up significant volume does signal that he isn’t the most confident in his three-ball. Looking at his shot, Diallo’s shooting form is pretty skinny from top to bottom. His base is narrow, and the release and supporting hand feel sort of rigid. On top of having a skinny base, Zoom does have a little twist at his waist—so what little balance he has as the shot is coming up is essentially zapped in unnecessary motion—not to mention that the mechanics look substantially different from when he is shooting from deep as opposed to a pull-up at the elbow. Something that stands out on the film is that, when he knows he is going to shoot the ball upon catch, the motion looks more natural and feels like it goes in at a higher clip than when he stops, surveys, and then puts up the shot.

Defensive Playmaking

On the other side of the floor, Zoom really has to find a way to make a somewhat consistent impact. It’s pretty surprising that Diallo put up such a small number of Stocks (steals + blocks) considering how strong and athletically gifted he is. For the season, he put up just 21 Stocks while having committed 87 fouls on defense. It feels like the majority of Zoom’s issues on this end come from fundamentals. When he is off the ball, he has a tendency to assume switch responsibilities—meaning that he’s willing to hand off his man without there being some overt communication with another teammate to switch assignments. He also overcommits in recovery. This leads to fouling on closeouts, biting on pump fakes to the point of granting wide-open driving lanes. There are also those frustrating fouls where he will reach out with his arms while remaining in his stance—no urgency in moving his feet to contest. To put it bluntly, these are fundamental blunders. When he’s on the ball, he competes. That’s good. But he is going to get backdoored to death if he doesn’t fix how he toggles between his man, the ball, and the basket more efficiently—and keep himself in a position to help without losing his assignment.

What to Expect

For Zoom Diallo, he’ll be in a new place this season, and he’ll be at a school to play for a coach who should be incredibly motivated to prove that he can get the most out of his players. This could be the perfect marriage, as Diallo figures to prove that he is the type of prospect many believed he would be out of high school. Kentucky will likely rely on the scoring acumen of Diallo. For the warts he has shown, Zoom is an efficient and savvy scorer. Coach Pope did a good job of coaching a team that scored well on their two-pointers. Inserting Zoom Diallo into an offense that wants to be efficient closer to the basket could be the thing that helps shape his scoring profile to be more NBA-esque. On top of the scoring punch he can provide the Wildcats, Diallo can definitely be additive as a passer and playmaker. His knack at finding teammates as a result of his scoring gravity is desirable and makes him an interesting offensive talent.

When looking at how his season went last year, Diallo drew some interesting and intriguing parallels to others. He produced similarly to that of Ryan Rollins when he was at Toledo in 2022. Rollins was better as a rebounder and a defender, but both had similar usage and shot similarly inside the three-point arc and out. Another fun name Zoom paralleled was Zyon Pullin in his 2021 UC Riverside season. Zyon was a better shooter from deep and a better defensive rebounder, but Zoom was better on the offensive glass, and his scoring usage was higher last year. Both also made plays for others at a similar clip.

These names aren’t thought of at the highest levels of NBA success, but Rollins has wedged his way into becoming a reliable and consistent NBA player, and Pullin feels as if he is right on the cusp of doing the same thing. Their archetype is a tough one to project—as evidenced by the aforementioned examples of success—but it’s still possible. Because of that, Diallo should still be respected and considered favorably as a legitimate NBA Draft prospect.

Zac Foster | Guard | Sophomore | Clemson

Zac Foster is a bit of a risky proposition in terms of projecting him to be a sleeper prospect in the 2026-2027 NBA Draft Cycle. Zac only played in 12 games last season—coming off the bench in all of them—due to a torn ACL in a game against South Carolina. In the games that he played, Foster averaged 6.9 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.5 APG, 0.4 SPG, and 0.3 BPG—on splits of 31/28/82. So, not only was he injured, but he was inefficient in his 18.7 MPG. Prior to playing for Clemson, Zac played for Woodward Academy in Georgia. In his junior year of high school, he was named to the All-Region team and was an All-State honorable mention in Georgia. In his senior season, Foster was named the Class AAAAA Player of the Year and was named to the All-State First Team in Georgia. He was considered a Top 75 player in his class and was recruited heavily by Georgia, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, and USF, but he ultimately committed to Clemson.

What’s Working

Decision-Making

Though we didn’t get to see much of him in multiple areas, Zac Foster has shown a propensity to make very good decisions as a decision-maker. Foster recorded an Assist-to-Turnover Ratio of 2.0. When he was on the court, he had an Assist Percentage of 26.2 on a Usage Rate of 26.3. Compare that to his 15.6 Turnover Percentage, and Foster has shown the ability to read and react to a defense at a solid level. One of the larger aspects of his passing that stands out is his patience. Sure, he can drive and attack a defense to an extent, but Zac has a level of maturity to recognize a collapsing defense and pivot out of the drive and find an open teammate. In his small sample of passing on film, there are glimmers of dropping slick bounce passes on the move to a rim-running big man—as well as one-handed whip-passes to teammates on the run. In the open court, when he can really show off his speed on the ball, he loves to look off cutters, too. It’ll be interesting to see how another year of experience and familiarity will help him show off more of his passing skill.

Athleticism

Typically, I try to steer away from using a player’s athleticism in pieces like this. When pointing to certain metrics that serve as athletic indicators of sorts, there are conflicting philosophies as to which ones are the best to use. The easiest thing to do is turn on the tape. Foster is a fun athlete—capable of really pushing the ball with his handle, speed, coordination, and balance. Once he turns the corner on the initial defender, the defense must be ready to rotate to slow Zac down. If not, Foster can bend and lean and contort his way around defenders and finish with flair. When looking at his total rebounding effort, he ranks in the 86th percentile among all guards.

What Needs Work

Shooting Volume

This is another tricky aspect of Zac’s game to project moving forward—largely because we just haven’t seen enough of him shooting the deep ball at a big enough sample size. On just 47 attempts, Foster shot under 28% from deep. His shot is a little sloppy upon analysis. There are times when the ball travels from his left pocket, up and around his right shoulder, and then he shoots. The upper parts of his mechanics are a bit rigid in the support arm, as well as the shooting arm. The entire motion feels a bit flicky—to the point where it feels like there is more of a lunge as the ball is coming off of his hands. It isn’t a soft landing for the ball, so the misses come high and far off of the rim. Now, he did take nearly 13 attempts from deep per 100 possessions, so maybe “volume” isn’t the most correct terminology, but Foster needs to rep out his shot for there to be any substantial confidence in him being able to shoot at a high level.

Strength and Frame

Zac Foster is going to have to make some strides in the strength department. Though he is listed at favorable dimensions, he does look more slight of frame on the tape. That strength component shows on the film and in the numbers; 36.9% of Foster’s shots came at the rim—which ranked in the 41st percentile. In terms of converting those shots, Zac ranked in just the 4th percentile in at-rim efficiency. In the halfcourt, he only converted 33.3% of his shots at the rim. This resulted in him having a free-throw rate of just 26.2. Some of this may just be comfort level. The film on Foster did, sometimes, show a player who would stop and survey—which allows the defense time to reset and brace themselves for any would-be angles of attack from the ball-handler. But what would cause this comfort level: processing and reacting, or lack of confidence in his strength? Something else entirely? It’s hard to know definitively, but the circumstantial evidence suggests it has something to do with Zac’s strength.

What to Expect

This is a bit of me “calling my shot,” so to speak, with Zac Foster. The biggest thing to factor into whatever calculus you choose is the ACL injury he suffered about eight months ago. There is no way to really know what level of play Foster will be able to display, but reports state that he hasn’t had any setbacks—and that he is “doing well.” Zac being well will make him an interesting Sophomore guard to monitor throughout the season. His athletic—almost instinct-driven—skillset should serve him well as he works on his body and the game slows down for him.

One interesting player who produced to a similar level as Zac Foster did last season was Caleb Love during his freshman season at UNC. Both had similar levels of efficiency from inside and outside the three-point line. Caleb Love had better turnover numbers and forced more turnovers from steals at a better rate. Foster, on the other hand, showed to be stronger on the glass and had a better Assist-to-Turnover Ratio. What’s interesting about Zac drawing close to Caleb Love is that Caleb was a slow build to becoming an intriguing NBA talent. Foster has an opportunity to do the same thing at the same rate—if not sooner. For this alone, Zac Foster has to be close to being listed as a second round talent.

Sidi Gueye | Big | Sophomore | Santa Clara

Closing out this piece is a prospect who may be an even bigger “calling my shot” play than Zac Foster: the now-Santa Clara Bronco Sidi Gueye. Gueye—from Senegal—came to Santa Clara after spending his freshman season with the Arizona Wildcats. A cool fact about Sidi is that he’s only played basketball since age 12, so less than seven years. Coming from Senegal, he played for Real Madrid prior to playing in the States. In perhaps Gueye’s biggest moment of exposure before college, he averaged 17.3 PPG, 8.7 RPG, and 1.7 BPG in the Adidas Next Gen U18 EuroLeague Finals. This led to him being selected to the All-Tournament team. This led Sidi to do something that many prominent international prospects do: commit to Arizona. In his lone season with the team, he played in 26 games. Though he played in a good number of games, it came while averaging 3.5 MPG—90 total minutes. In that time, Gueye averaged 1.3 PPG, 0.8 RPG, and 0.3 BPG.

What’s Working

Shot Blocking

In those 90 minutes Sidi Gueye played, he logged 10 blocks, per Synergy. For you math wizards out there—back me up here—that comes out to one block every nine minutes on the floor. Per 40 lovers, eat your heart out. Gueye’s tape shows a player who has awesome anticipatory skills and good fluidity. Having a reported 7’4” (+6) wingspan helps Sidi provide intriguing rim-protection ability, as he can high-point the ball or flip his hips in recovery and send shots off of the backboard. Even when you have the volume turned down on your film study, you can see Sidi directing traffic on the backline of the defense—showing awesome drop coverage instincts. Perhaps one of my favorite things that I’ve seen in his shot-blocking is that he can do it with either hand. Gueye’'s Block Percentage of 9.1 puts him in the same territory of players such as Flory Bidunga and above Tarris Reed Jr.—players who are considered prominent defensive-minded college big men.

Rim Running

I feel like I’ve pointed this out a couple of times at this point, but I want to (again) acknowledge that all of these projections and metrics are coming on a very small sample. That said, it’s still encouraging to see how natural Sidi Gueye looked as a rim-running play finisher in his limited playing time. Of all his shots, 77.8% were at the rim. This ranked in the 90th percentile in at-rim frequency. He converted 78.6% of those shots, which placed him in the 98th percentile in at-rim efficiency. Gueye has shown a couple of flashes of finishing around the rim with craft and touch, but he gets off the floor quickly. He looks to have good catching ability, which helps Sidi to be a credible lob threat. He has a motor that shows up on drives, as well as rebounding. His stride on cuts gives him advantages to establish position against the defense—which marries nicely with his quick, vertical ability.

What Needs Work

Decision-Making

There is certainly going to be opportunity to showcase more and better decision-making for Sidi Gueye, but the early flashes do show that he could stand to make strides in this area. Big men are asked to do more than ever with the ball and, if bigs cannot be trusted to have the offense extend through them, then their role will be restricted. To be fair to Sidi, he did post an Assist-to-Turnover Ratio of 1.0. That said, he did have an Assist Percentage of just 9.2, to a Turnover Percentage of just 20.1. The tape does show flashes of decent passes but, even on some credited assists, Gueye does show some potential struggles to find his teammates in stride and on target. For passes that are directly in front of him, or on some scripted reads, Gueye can do well. But there weren’t many times when he passed out of pressure, which obviously can alter the production for him. Some of that could be credited to inconsistent minutes and volatile lineups that he was rolled out with. If he takes on a larger role with Santa Clara, those tolerable takes could dwindle.

What to Expect

This season for Sidi Gueye is going to be interesting on a few levels. For one, the Broncos have another opportunity to bring in another former Wildcat prospect to see how good they can be. It’s also interesting because Gueye was a clear international prospect who just didn’t get a lot of runway due to playing on a team with championship aspirations. Santa Clara had some success with a player in Bukky Oboye, who has since transferred, so can they find a way to reshape their big man rotation with a completely new player? The Broncos are always a team that finds a way to be captivating.

When looking at how Gueye produced last season, he drew a strong parallel with a very fun name that makes Sidi a player to monitor: the 2022 season version of DaRon Holmes II. Both players had a similar Assist-to-Turnover Ratio, shot-blocking production, and offensive rebounding. DaRon was obviously a much more utilized scoring option in a significant role, but Gueye did show a high level of efficiency on his two-pointers and took better care of the ball. The biggest explanation for Sidi getting so close to a player like Holmes II is limited minutes, but it’s worth stating that his limited minutes could have gone in the other direction. With it being a possibility that Sidi Gueye could be on the level of DaRon Holmes II, he has to be in second round territory to start the season…at a minimum. The start of the season is the time to be bold and call your shots—so why not do it for a player like Gueye?

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Passed on the First Round on Purpose

Historically, the conventional wisdom was that if you got a first round grade, you stayed in the draft. In recent years, as NIL has evolved, that’s turned into a Top 20 grade. This year, though, we saw multiple guys decide that even that Top 20 area wasn’t enticing enough to keep them from returning to college. Obviously, these players had wide ranges of rankings depending on what team you talk to, but it would’ve been surprising if they didn’t all go in the first round. Whether it was Motiejus Krivas returning to Arizona, Thomas Haugh heading back to Florida, Brylon Mullins running it back with UConn, or Billy Richmond III reuniting with Arkansas, the first round depth of the 2026 NBA Draft took a hit. So, why did they return? The simple answer is that the NIL payment was more, or at least enough, to outbid their projected first round contract. When combined with the upside of improving their stock in what’s been considered a more wide-open draft class and pretty minimal downside, it’s a tough argument to beat. All four of these players could easily be one of the best returning players in college basketball. If they improve on a few key aspects of their game too, they could also be some of the most valuable prospects in the 2027 NBA Draft.

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Motiejus Krivas – Arizona

Motiejus Krivas was one of the biggest surprise returners for me this season. After Arizona had a dominant season and Final Four run, I fully expected Krivas to stay in the 2026 NBA Draft, especially given the shallowness of the true centers. As positional skill and versatility continue to be in demand in the NBA, there’s still a ton of value when centers can just be elite at center-type stuff. That’s exactly what Krivas did last year.

Aside from being an insanely massive human being, Krivas was truly fantastic at doing traditional big man things. He was a force on the boards on both ends of the floor, a tremendous rim protector, a reliable defensive anchor, a foul-drawing machine, and an efficient scorer. It would have been awesome if Krivas was a dynamic shooter and shot creator, but he proved that he didn’t need to be. By being elite at multiple big man-specific skills, Krivas showcased that he already has an extremely high baseline as a pro.

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The coming 2026-2027 season has drawn some skepticism from both draft fans and analysts alike. You’ll hear things along the lines of “I mean, sure, there will be NBA players come out of this class, but it’s not very good.”

When I hear sentiments such as that, it makes me feel some sort of amalgam of frustrated and sad, but—mostly—motivated. Comments like that gas me up to find players who can shine and thrive. Not to say that I’m right and everyone else is wrong, but it’s worth remembering that thousands of basketball players are about to play a full season of basketball.

I get what people mean when they call a class “weak” or “not very good.” They mean there’s no Cooper Flagg or Victor Wembanyama standing at the top of it, already announcing himself as a generational talent.

Fair enough.

But in 2024, I—along with the rest of you—was told that class wasn’t any good either. And I’m pretty sure I just watched Stephon Castle play a significant role on a team that went to the NBA Finals. Which isn’t to say there weren’t good players in that class all along; it was just that they hadn’t been found yet.

So, what’s my point here?

What we’re going to do here and in the following piece is highlight 15 players I’m leaning on to help shape the depth and quality of the 2027 NBA Draft. What I’m not going to do is pick at the top of the board. Top freshmen prospects will be covered elsewhere within No Ceilings, whether that’s here on the website or across our podcasts. Even the top returning prospects in this class won’t be covered here. To show there are plenty of prospects worth getting excited about, I want to focus on players who are primed to make “The Leap” into the consciousness of the greater basketball community (maybe not for all of you Sickos out there).

Five prospects will be evaluated here, five will be covered in the second part, and five in the finale.

Let’s dive in!

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Pryce Sandfort | Wing/Forward | Senior | Nebraska

Many know Pryce Sandfort as the younger brother of now-NBA player Payton Sandfort, but Pryce has been one of the most productive, ascending talents in the college basketball landscape. Coming out of high school, Sandfort was a fringe-Top 100 recruit and committed to play for the Iowa Hawkeyes—the same school as his brother. He spent two years with Iowa, playing a modest role before transferring to the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Last year, Pryce experienced a significant leap in his own right—going from 8.8 PPG on 49/40/64 shooting splits as a sophomore, to 18.1 PPG on 48/42/86. With his role and usage the highest they’ve ever been, Sandfort led Nebraska to a 28-7 record—a seven-game improvement for the team.

What’s Working

Floor Spacing

Much like his older brother, Pryce Sandfort has carved out a true niche as a floor-spacer. Sandfort has been a 40%-or-better shooter from distance in each of the past two years, and his 15.9 attempts per 100 possessions helped him get recognized as a premier marksman. In terms of shooting gravity, Pryce is elite. He shot almost 42% from deep on high volume, shot nearly 86% from the free-throw line, and shot 40% on his far two-pointers. The shooting motion figures to translate well. Sandfort mobilizes it well—gathering the ball on handoffs and screen actions, and shooting off platform. The release is quick and high, and he can make it rain whether he is guarded tightly or not. That floor spacing will be his primary skill to get him real looks in the NBA, but that isn’t all he brings to the table.

Decision-Making

Being a laser from deep is a fine skill to hang one’s hat on, but if that’s all you can do, you’re going to be relegated to a significantly smaller role. This is especially true if a player cannot be trusted to make decisions with the ball in their hands. Pryce has proven to be a solid ball-mover in his own right. What’s interesting is that he isn’t an offensive hub—or someone who is going to generate for the entire team—but he does make passes while attacking the basket more than one might assume based on his shooting ability. Sandfort keeps his head up and looks for opportunities to find his guys on the move. His assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.1 was quite good relative to the other players in the 2026 NBA Draft cycle (ranked 57th among players with a Minutes Percentage of at least 40). This bodes well for Sandfort when he does make the jump to the NBA, as he will have to make those quick decisions upon the catch.

At-Rim Finishing

Look, to acknowledge this right off the rip, Sandfort doesn’t get the lion’s share of his shot attempts at the rim. In fact, per Synergy, 15% of his shots are at the rim. BUT! Pryce has converted 70.3% of his 101 attempts from there. When you have this sort of variance in terms of efficiency, like always, you have to take it to the film. Sandfort plays aggressively once he looks to attack inside the three-point line. What helps him is that Pryce doesn’t look to do a whole lot of “east-to-west” movement; he is much more interested in making decisive lines to the rim. He’s not averse to contact, either, as Sandfort recorded 10 And-Ones last year—six of which came on drives to the basket. With Pryce returning, this is one aspect of his game that I will be keeping tabs on, as it could unlock the rest of his offensive repertoire.

What Needs Work

Defensive Playmaking

Pryce Sandfort isn’t going to be confused for a disruptor on the defensive end. And, ultimately, that’s probably going to be just fine in the long run for his role. Still, any sort of step forward in this area would make him that much more desirable. When factoring his size and functional position, Sandfort’s 1.1 Block Percentage and 1.8 Steal Percentage are slightly below average, historically speaking. He doesn’t have the sort of twitch or pop to recover if he loses his line or positioning on defense, so Pryce has to win on defense by doing his work early—toggling between man-ball-rim and being fundamentally sound. Based on his film and his metrics last year, Sandfort actually projects as a neutral-level defender. With low defensive playmaking numbers, this projection is largely based on his impact on the overall team defense with Nebraska. Any meaningful strides in the playmaking department only increase his value on that end of the floor.

Rebounding

With the increase in playing time, it was good to see Sandfort average two more rebounds per game in his first season as a full-time starter. To be fair, Sandfort isn’t necessarily a “bad” or “poor” rebounder in totality, but he isn’t “plus” or “above average” in that regard, either. In terms of offensive rebounding, he doesn’t grade favorably—but much of that has to do with his role on the offensive end. When dissecting his finishing preference, most of his shots come from the perimeter (he actually grades out in the 100th Percentile in perimeter finishing). This would explain why his numbers would be a little lower on the offensive glass. On the defensive end, he does leave a little to be desired. His 14.2 Defensive Rebounding Percentage sits at about average. This takes me to a similar thought process for his rebounding as I had for Sandfort’s defensive playmaking: any meaningful improvements only make him that much more desirable.

What to Expect

With another offseason to work on his body and game, there are plenty of ways this season could go for Pryce Sandfort. The obvious expectation is for him to continue to be one of the best shooting prospects in the class. Even in the lower outcomes for Pryce, his combination of high volume and accuracy is going to get him his fair share of looks in the NBA. What makes him more than just another shooter is his feel for the game; it places him into another level of prospect. Think of it like this: this past draft—featuring a loaded class—Richie Saunders, Isaiah Evans, and Meleek Thomas were priority second round picks. In fact, they were selected 32nd, 33rd, and 34th overall, respectively.

Speaking to the “working on his body” piece, this could be major for the rebounding—and even Pryce’s increase in at-rim frequency. It remains to be seen whether 1) Sandfort has, in fact, made these improvements, and 2) whether those improvements would help him improve his defensive playmaking. It’s an easy assumption that improved strength and, perhaps, strides in foot-speed, agility, and quickness would allow him to be a quality team defender. To that, I would expect Sandfort to at least hover around that neutral-level defensive projection.

All of this leads me to have Pryce as a pretty safe first round player. I’m not going to pretend to understand the rules around someone being able to return to college basketball, but it would appear that Sandfort would have the ability to play another year of college basketball if he wanted to. Sandfort’s junior season had parallels to how Corey Kispert and Reggie Bullock performed in college—heck, his offensive efficiency even got close to Suns-era Mikal Bridges and Kon Knueppel. When considering that, there is a level of safety in Pryce being a successful NBA player—which should place him around the Top 20 at a minimum.

Silas Demary Jr. | Guard | Senior | UConn

A common thread you readers will probably catch on to here is that the players featured in this series were quite productive, but that production went under the radar relative to those who were often featured in mock drafts and big boards. Silas Demary Jr. at UConn was one such player. In his first season with the Huskies, Silas actually saw the number of his shot attempts and minutes go down under Coach Hurley. This was likely an expectation coming from a school that hasn’t really gotten the most out of their talent—and Demary had talent. He was a consensus Top 75 prospect in his class coming out of North Carolina. Despite the slight drop in shot attempts and minutes, Silas averaged 10.1 PPG, 5.9 APG, and 4.5 RPG—on splits of 45/39/80. His production played a significant role in UConn reaching the National Championship game.

What’s Working

Advantage Creation

One of the best aspects of Silas’s game is how consistent he has been in terms of generating offense for his team. His Assist Percentage of 35.8 ranked 24th among all 2026 season prospects and holds up well against all played seasons since 2008. Demary spent 60.9% of his offensive possessions (including turnovers and assists) operating out of the pick-and-roll. That ranked in the 95th percentile in terms of time spent in that play type—and he ranked in the 67th percentile in points-per-possession there, too. Demary is incredibly comfortable advancing the ball deeper into the heart of the defense. He keeps his head up and his handle alive—with an understanding of where his escape routes are. While he hasn’t been the most efficient at the basket (more on that in a bit), Silas did put up more than 40% of his shots in the heart of the paint. His ability to be a pressure point for the offense is a desirable trait to have at his position—especially when considering what else he can do on the offensive end.

Floor-Spacing

If there is a thing I can be an absolute sucker for, it’s continuous improvement in a prospect. Over the past three seasons, Silas Demary Jr. has improved his three-point percentage from 30.3%, to 37.4%, to 38.5% last season in Storrs. For someone in his position, Silas did a solid job of connecting on his off-the-dribble threes last year. He gets into his shot quickly and does a good job of organizing his feet. While the shot has a tendency to be a bit of a line drive, it falls softly and has fallen at an above-average efficiency. Though the volume isn’t that of someone like the aforementioned Pryce Sandfort, he has been an 80% shooter from the free-throw line over the past two seasons. He also shot just under 40% on his long two-pointers last season. These touch indicators—on top of his year-over-year increased efficiency—should provide some confidence in Demary being a reliable floor spacer on top of his creation.

Defensive Prowess

Guards in the NBA have taken on a unique role and responsibility if they aren’t the source of offensive generation. If their offensive burden isn’t a primary option, NBA guards have a few paths to be helpful—but the most meaningful is being able to space the floor and make good decisions on offense. On the other end of the floor, they have to be capable of applying intense pressure to force turnovers. Silas Demary Jr. has the tools to thrive in that role. His impact on the defensive end is exemplified by his 4.8 DPPM ranking—which grades out high historically. Demary has the strength and quickness to fight through screens and stay in the play. That strength also allows him to maintain his line defensively. His athleticism affords him the ability to force events on defense—whether that’s getting off the floor to challenge shots or swiping and intercepting the ball to create easy looks for his team (his Steal Rate of 3.4 grades out above average compared to BartTorvik’s database).

What Needs Work

Decision-Making

It may seem strange to compliment Silas on his ability to pressure the defense and create opportunities, but then call his decision-making into question. As great as the Assist Percentage was for Demary, though, the Turnover Percentage was quite high. Now, sure, there is a “cost of doing business” when a playmaker has the ball in their hands at a high rate. The thing with Silas was that he wasn’t a player with an incredibly high usage last season—his Usage Percentage came in at 22.5. That’s compared to a Turnover Percentage of 21.3. Silas isn’t much of an “east-west” creator, as he favors straight-line drives to advance the ball. So, when he does attempt to improvise a bit, this is where he is more prone to make mistakes. Making improvements in this area will give NBA teams more confidence in Silas running different lineups.

Rebounding

Quite the nit to pick with a guard, isn’t it? Seriously, there aren’t many considerably weak areas to Silas’s game, but improved rebounding is something I want to see. There isn’t the typical “small guard” excuse that exists with Demary as there is with other positional peers. Even if he isn’t truly 6’4”, Silas is strong and athletic. Some of the reasoning for his numbers could be architectural: something that’s dictated by Coach Hurley. The big men and frontcourt players typically come down with the lion’s share of the rebounding, which makes sense. Therefore, this could be something he leans on more in the NBA, as he isn’t particularly a poor rebounder. Silas is just capable of doing more in that regard.

What to Expect

Again, I’m not going to pretend like I fully understand what is and isn’t happening with college eligibility at this point. But should Silas Demary Jr. opt to be more traditional in his path to the NBA, there is a strong probability that he could be drafted this season. His numbers last year did compare favorably to some former NBA players—as well as some prominent collegiate standouts. While Brad Wanamaker isn’t the NBA player kids grow up wanting to be, he did make a path to the league—and Silas has some defensive similarities to him. What helps Demary is that he was clearly a better offensive option than Wanamaker while maintaining similar defensive impact. To speak to his feel, Demary was in similar creation territory to Bennett Stirtz in the 2025 NBA Draft cycle. He even paralleled Mason Falslev out of Utah State—a draft community sweetheart—this year on defense and in shooting efficiency. If he can show more reliable decision-making while pressuring the defense, NBA teams should be more inclined to take him in a similar spot to where Bruce Thornton was taken in the 2026 NBA Draft.

Kayden Mingo | Guard | Sophomore | Baylor

Speaking of the 2026 NBA Draft, that class was clearly recognized for the quality of the prospects at the top. To me, though, the identity of the class came from the depth of guards—particularly the freshmen guards. While at Penn State, Kayden Mingo had a productive season in his own right, but it wasn’t quite at the level of his peers. Kayden started all 28 games he played for the Nittany Lions—averaging 13.7 PPG, 4.3 APG, 3.5 RPG, and 2.1 SPG. This came on 48/24/71 shooting splits. After his freshman season, Mingo took to the transfer portal to play with his brother, Dylan Mingo, at Baylor for his sophomore campaign.

What’s Working

Advantage Creation

Kayden Mingo plays with a ton of poise while handling the rock. There is a certain “aura” (as the kids say) he has while bringing the ball up the floor and assessing where his line of approach is going to be. His pacing allows him to essentially set up the defense where he wants them to be, and then explode past them. It’s kind of like a running back setting up their blocks. Kayden is able to pressure the basket, which gives him the option to finish at the rim (more on that in a second), or allows him to find an open teammate. His Turnover Percentage of 15.3 is pretty good compared to his 26.4 Usage Percentage. His processing is quick and is perfectly encapsulated by his 2.1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Mingo is able to find his teammates on the move, and can make seemingly every pass a guard needs to make. There is more that goes into advantage creation than simply the passing component—which we will get into next.

Interior Finishing

What makes Kayden such a dynamic player is that he can get to the cup, and he can finish once he gets there. As a player listed at 6’3” and 195 pounds, Mingo ranked in the 62nd percentile in terms of at-rim attempts. When he got to the rim, he finished at just under 63%—which ranked in the 71st percentile in at-rim finishing. While he could stand to get a little tougher, Mingo has a bevy of moves he can go to in the paint. He has good length and pacing to be able to gather the ball on those Donovan Mitchell-esque, high rip-overs. His Euro is fluid and comes naturally, allowing him to shield the ball away from the defense. He also has those random moments of suddenness that allow him to pirouette and contort around would-be rim protectors. And—again—even though he isn’t super thick, Kayden is more than capable of absorbing a bump when attacking the rim.

Defensive Playmaking

One of the tricky things when it comes to evaluating guards is figuring out how much they can contribute to teams. Oftentimes, it comes from just having a ton of usage on offense. For Kayden, being an impactful defender is another path to success. Mingo has solid length for his reported 6’3” size. He also has a reported 6’6” wingspan. His quickness on offense also shows up on the defensive end; he paces himself well, waiting for the right moment to make a play on the ball. Even when looking at how he handles being attacked by drives, Mingo has shown consistent moments of fundamentally sound footwork and vertical play. There is a sound blend of knowing where to be on defense and how to get there—as well as someone who can force transition opportunities. This is exemplified by his 63 stocks (steals + blocks) generated, compared to his 53 fouls committed. His Steal Percentage of 3.8 placed him 53rd among all college players with a Minutes Percentage of at least 40. This two-way ability should come in handy while some of his areas of improvement round into shape.

What Needs Work

Shooting

There is no dancing around it: Kayden Mingo’s jumper is the biggest area of his game he has to figure out. That’s not me taking an easy way out—or picking low-hanging fruit—but it’s the most glaring weak area. Looking at the numbers, Kayden shot under 25% from three, which grades out slightly below average. Even his volume of 5.7 attempts per 100 possessions is in that same bucket of slightly below average. For those who value free throw percentage, he barely cleared 70%—which also falls in the slightly below average range. When guarded, he only shot 15% from deep. When he shot off the bounce, he barely cleared 26% beyond the arc. One of the biggest things that stands out with Mingo’s shot is that the base can be pretty inconsistent. Starting with the foot placement, he has a tendency for one of his feet to be significantly further ahead than the other. This affects his balance, which leads to the trajectory of the shot going off. Beyond the placement, he also flares his feet outward—away from each other, even. If this had a chance of drawing a shooting foul, I wouldn’t like it, but I would understand it. However, he does this even when there is no defender closing out on him. This untamed footwork also impacts the mobility of the shot. If there is some glimmer of hope for the jumper to take a step in the right direction, it’s that he shot over 45% on his far twos—which is quite high.

Frame and Strength

Look, I know I’ve made the case that being a little slight hasn’t gotten the better of Kayden where it matters. Just to speak to how good he is at essentially everything else, though: if he can improve in this area, Mingo can be a real problem. I mean that in a very good way. With as much time as he spends in the teeth of the defense, he could stand to have some added strength to attract and finish through contact. To put this idea into context, Mingo ranks in the 81st percentile in how I track interior scoring profiles. This is juxtaposed against him ranking 1,067th in Free Throw Rate. His lack of strength also shows up in the rebounding numbers. Even though he is a 1 positionally, most of his shots came near the basket. Keeping that in mind, his offensive rebounding numbers were lackluster. Even among players his height or smaller, Mingo ranked 332nd. On the defensive glass, he only ranked 118th. Should he improve in terms of strength, Kayden could really shore up his ability to be a three-level scorer from the inside—as well as in his rebounding.

What to Expect

Of course, there are several outcomes that exist with Kayden Mingo and his translation to the NBA. Not only do we have the areas of improvement he must, well, improve upon to weigh, but now we have an entire new school, scheme, and cast of teammates that make things a little tricky to factor into his projection. That being said, Baylor landing Kayden—who was a Top 40 RSCI recruit last season—should imply that Coach Scott Drew will lay a hefty amount of responsibility on Kayden Mingo’s shoulders. When comparing Kayden to past NBA players, there aren’t a ton of tight matches at the top. BUT, there is one name that rises to the top that is intriguing: De’Aaron Fox. Both have similar frames, similar burst, and a tendency to apply rim pressure. In Fox’s lone season with Kentucky, he showed a stronger Free Throw Rate and defensive playmaking than Mingo, but Mingo was a better finisher inside the three-point line. Their rebounding and three-point shooting parallel each other. Fox serves as an example of how Kayden could thrive in the NBA at, perhaps, his highest ceiling. Fox grew to be a career 33% three-point shooter in the league—and a multi-time All-Star and All-NBA player. When looking beyond the obvious names within this coming draft class, a player like Kayden Mingo should be in consideration for being a Top 20 player based on what we have seen, and could see moving forward.

Adlan Elamin | Forward | Sophomore | Cincinnati

If there is such a thing as an unheralded, under-the-radar prospect, Adlan Elamin is that idea personified. Coming out of high school, Elamin was a three-star (or four-star, depending on the outlet) prospect out of Virginia. He won a state championship and led his team to multiple high-winning seasons. With his success, he was recruited by Iowa, Penn State, and VCU. His commitment to Utah State resulted in him starting in 28 of the 35 games he played for the Aggies. Utah State went 29-7 with Adlan averaging 6.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 0.9 APG, 0.7 SPG, and 0.5 BPG. After a Round of 32 loss in March Madness, Elamin hit the transfer portal—ultimately committing to play for the Cincinnati Bearcats.

What’s Working

Finishing

To start, Elamin isn’t a perfect finisher, but he was still highly efficient around the basket in spite of that imperfection. His reported 6’9” frame comes in handy when he is operating around the cup. He can finish above the rim—regardless of whether he’s in transition or in the halfcourt. Adlan showed some ability to work his way into the paint off the bounce, finishing in crafty ways. There were multiple occasions in which he used his body to shield off defenders and used his reach to protect the ball while converting his shot. Elamin has awesome instincts for when to attack the rim, and which angle to attack it from. This is what allows Adlan to be an above-the-rim finisher on lobs in the halfcourt.

Defensive Playmaking

The length and athleticism of Adlan Elamin have their place on offense, but his natural tools and abilities flashed more on the defensive end of the floor. Last season, he was one of only 29 freshmen who recorded a Steal Percentage and a Block Percentage of at least 2.0 with a Minutes Percentage of at least 40. Adlan is a major disruptor. His length and stride allow him to be a force on the weak side as a rim protector. He’s proven able to defend up against some players who some would assume would give him problems physically. There is an elastic quality to how Elamin defends that keeps him in plays—that allows him to recover at a high level to send shots in reverse. He has active hands and sound timing for poke-outs and digs as ball handlers look to attack him. It also helps that Elamin has a reported 7’ wingspan.

What Needs Work

Connectivity

For the things that Adlan Elamin is good at, there are some significant areas of his game he needs to clean up. Perhaps one of the easier areas he could make strides in is his connectivity. Elamin’s Assist Percentage of just 8.0 isn’t great, but some of that could just be due to him being designated as a play finisher. When putting on the film, there are moments when Adlan surprises as a ball-mover. He is better as a stationary passer, but he’s proven capable of taking a few dribbles and dishing the ball to a teammate in scoring position. Where he struggles is when he’s trying to create out in the open floor. The handle has gotten away from him a few times. Other times, Elamin turns the ball over due to traveling. If he can make more controlled and structured reads, Adlan can be more consistent than a player who just shows flashes of playmaking.

Shooting

Elamin is another player who can stand to improve as a shooter. He shot just over 30% from deep—which was below average. He did this on 7.7 attempts per 100 possessions, which is pretty modest volume. When you look at his long two-point percentage, he only shot 35.3%—also below average. Adlan’s shooting motion isn’t terrible, but there are parts of his mechanics that need cleaning up. The shot is kind of “flicky” and out in front of his space. It’s good to see that his jumper doesn’t take a lot of time to get off, but that rigidity could be the aspect of his shot that’s impacting his efficiency. He’s also really only a threat off the catch, as that’s where he’s most comfortable letting it fly. Adlan missed all nine of his off-the-dribble shots last season, per Synergy.

What to Expect

I’ll start by saying that I am aware I only included two categories under the “What’s Working” part of Adlan Elamin’s writeup. That’s because there’s a huge “boom/bust” dynamic that exists with him—almost a fork in the road. Elamin had a very low usage (just over 16) with Utah State, and plenty of areas to improve. The good news is that there was just enough to believe in. We touched on the flashes of passing skill, but he also shot 42.4% on his open three-pointers. He also shot 83% on his free throws. Mix in that his threes per 100 were decently encouraging, and there could be a shooter in waiting with Adlan. There is also some historical context that gives hope for Elamin. His freshman season has some similarities to that of Franz Wagner. Franz had more of a scoring punch and was a better rebounder, but Adlan was more efficient and showed a higher assist-to-turnover ratio. The good news is that Elamin has a ton of tools and showed versatility on both ends. He has to go out there and realize his potential. Even some of the “lesser” comps for Elamin are talented collegiate prospects who could still have a path to playing NBA basketball. This will likely result in me having Elamin as a second round player—with the understanding that this range would more than likely result in him returning.

Julius Halaifonua | Big | Junior | Oklahoma State

Rounding out this group of prospects is now-Oklahoma State Cowboy big man Julius Halaifonua. One of my favorite recent trends in roster-building has been the resurgence of value in drafting bigs. It turns out that screening, rebounding, and anchoring a defense are all still important to the game of basketball. Who knew? It’s because of this that I find Halaifonua so interesting. Halaifonua, a New Zealand native, conquered basketball in New Zealand and Australia before making the leap to the U.S. He was recognized as one of the best big men in the 2025 class prior to reclassifying to the 2024 class. He spent his freshman season with the Georgetown Hoyas, where he appeared in just six games. Halaifonua returned to the team for his sophomore season and played a significantly larger role. Julius averaged 9.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.3 APG, and 0.7 BPG while playing nearly 20 minutes per contest. He went from not starting a single game to starting in 28 of the 32 games he played with the Hoyas. After his season was over, Julius entered the transfer portal and committed to play for Oklahoma State and a revamped roster.

What’s Working

Play Finishing

Halaifonua is a player who can make the most of a shot opportunity around the basket. There is an ease to his movement and surprising quickness in his footwork that allows him to pile on points in a hurry. He has counters on the block—up-and-unders, jump hooks, step-throughs—you name it. His touch in the midst of the trees is one of the primary reasons why he led Georgetown in points-per-possession. Listed at 7’ and 260 pounds, Julius is light on his feet but also strong. He’s adept at carving out space in the paint and can maintain his man on his hip—allowing him to establish position and stack up points. To put numbers to the words, last season Halaifonua ranked in the 65th percentile as the roll man on pick-and-roll plays, the 90th percentile on cuts, and the 78th percentile on post-ups. His reliability as a play finisher gives Julius an immediate role on the offensive end.

Passing

I touched on some of the things big men have to do in order to succeed within today’s game: finish, rebound, and protect the rim. However, big men must also be able to process and make good decisions as passers—at least, if they want to see significant playing time. This is an area where Halaifonua thrives. His work in DHO sets is encouraging. Of course, he can hand the ball off and use his size to pave driving lanes for other ball-handlers, but he can also reject the handoff and find cutters with a slick bounce pass. When he’s backing his man down, Julius does an awesome job of keeping his head up and finding shooters to kick the ball out to. He can also get into his post moves, maneuver toward the rim, and find others cutting to the basket. His decision-making profile shows a player who posted a 1.7 assist-to-turnover ratio. On a modest 20.6 Usage Percentage, he only had an 11.0 Turnover Percentage. This sort of baseline at a school that isn’t in the limelight allowed Halaifonua’s game to go a little under-the-radar.

What Needs Work

Defensive Consistency

Back to the things big men have to do at the next level (finish, rebound, and protect the basket): Julius needs to become more consistent in this area of his game. To put it bluntly, he fouls a lot. There are parts of his defensive profile to be excited about, but he has to be able to stay on the floor for any of it to truly matter. He’s strong, and he knows it—he has the enforcer mindset, similar to that of Matas Vokietaitis. He’ll put his chest into someone, and he’ll look to “steer” his man into disadvantageous positions, but he’ll bite on pump fakes. He’ll hook and hold down would-be rebounders. He’ll reach, swing, and hip-check drivers if he’s out of position. Now, there’s a school of thought that says: “don’t allow easy baskets.” BUT, if Julius wants to be a “three-down back” as a big man, he has to work on his positioning and hone in on those cheap fouls that limit him and his team.

What to Expect

Like Adlan Elamin, I really only have two areas under the “What’s Working” section of Halaifonua’s writeup—but I also have just one area under the “What Needs Work” portion. That’s because, for his position and playstyle, things are a little more straightforward. Reports online suggest that Julius doesn’t have a substantial plus-wingspan, which is a little disheartening at face value. That shows up in some of the rebounding and shot-blocking numbers.

What is encouraging is that Halaifonua still has sound metrics (albeit not earth-shattering) despite not having those breathtaking tools. There are some touch indicators with Julius that suggest he could space the floor. Sure, he only connected on just over 27% of his threes on low volume, but he’s also a decent free-throw shooter—and he connected on 44.4% of his long twos, which is a very respectable hit rate. Taking all of his game into consideration, Halaifonua should be in my second round range in this class at a minimum. He draws interesting parallels to other high-level collegiate prospects in terms of his output, but he also paralleled what Evan Mobley did in his lone season at USC. I know Julius is not Evan Mobley; I get that. BUT, Julius did show a higher assist-to-turnover ratio and drew similar assist output, offensive rebounding, and reliability as a two-point scorer.

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The 2026 Lethal Shooter Showcase once again brought together a plethora of top talent here in the DMV for a day of hoops, fellowship, life lessons, and honoring some of the legends of the past and present from the area. The showcase, held at Alexandria City High School’s Minnie Howard Campus, featured structured stations (3-on-3, shooting, ball handling), scrimmages, and group sessions led by an accomplished collection of high-level trainers, coaches, and former players who are committed to pouring into the next generation.

Organized by Chris “Lethal Shooter” Matthews and Brian Inge, it has quickly become a must-attend event on the summer scouting schedule. Last year’s MVP was Arkansas’s Jordan Smith Jr.. who is poised for a fantastic freshman campaign and is one of the front runners for the first pick of the 2027 NBA Draft. Who were the top standouts from this year’s showcase?

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Brandon Woodard | 2027 | Wing | 6’8” | Bishop McNamara (MD)

Brandon Woodard earned co-MVP honors with an electric performance that highlighted his explosive tools, projectable positional size, and upside. For anyone new to the Brandon Woodard Show, the four-star wing is an effortless NBA-caliber athlete who will have defenders making business decisions at the rim.

Woodard, long and audacious with quick twitch, threw down dunk after dunk in the halfcourt and transition, both as a play finisher and ball-handler during the scrimmages. His performance was highlighted by a 360 one-hand slam and a two-hand oop slam where his head was level with the rim. Across both the scrimmages and stations, he flashed enticing ball-handling and multiple-level shotmaking. Woodard hit a few pullup jumpers, with my favorite coming on a deep three in front of the opposing bench where both sides had some competitive, but playful words for each other.

Woodard’s pairing of breathtaking athleticism and an evolving skillset is a dream for evaluators. As he continues to find consistency and advance his game, the sky is the limit.

Jamaal McKnight Jr. | 2027 | Guard | 6’0 | Iowa Prep United (IA)

Sharing co-MVP with his Team Durant teammate, Jamaal McKnight Jr. dazzled from beginning to end. Though a shorter guard, I wouldn’t necessarily classify him as “small.” He’s stout, compact, and strong with an understanding of how to leverage physicality, speed, and ball skills to beat defenders for scoring and playmaking opportunities.

McKnight Jr. got anywhere that he wanted on the floor and scored on all three levels with pull-ups, snaking scores, and shifty slashes into tough rim finishes. There was no doubt that he was focused on being aggressive and showcasing his scoring arsenal. However, there were still glimpses of his playmaking ability on drop-offs, spray outs, and a well-placed lob assist to Woodard for an oop slam in transition. During the shooting station, McKnight Jr. asked a great question about faceup footwork on perimeter catches that excited the coaches.

Transferring from Long Island Lutheran (NY), he’ll play his senior season at Iowa Prep United and recently narrowed his college choices down to seven schools: Boise State, Butler, California, Pepperdine, SMU, UNLV, and Virginia Tech.

Junior Mancho | 2027 | Big | 6’9” | Mount Carmel (MD)

Junior Mancho thrived doing the crucial things for bigs: play with physicality, run the floor, finish at the rim, protect the rim, and rebound. He even mixed in a catch-and-shoot three from the top of the key and a couple of jump hooks in the lane.

Mancho’s ability to defend in space continues to be appealing. Utilizing his mobility, length, and quick hands, Mancho got stops in the pick-and-roll, including a deflection and steal in the pocket. The tools and energy are there for Mancho to be a valuable big on the collegiate level, especially defensively, as his skillset refines.

Corey Dixon | Guard | 2027 | Bishop O’Connell (VA)

Every time I watch Corey Dixon, he just oozes confidence and gets better and better. Dixon’s outing here only adds to my growing belief in his game and transition to the collegiate level.

Both the on-ball and off-ball work were exciting. With the ball, Dixon was aggressive and creative getting downhill, whether it was all the way to the rim or getting to a controlled pull-up middy. Additionally, he got to his tween pull-ups and stepback jumpers with ease. Off the ball, Dixon showed his clean and effortless mechanics to knock down catch-and-shoot jumpers alongside a perfectly timed backdoor cut for a layup.

Considering Dixon’s NBA bloodlines, advanced skillset, and development trajectory, the four-star guard could be an immediate collegiate producer for multiple seasons.

Isaiah Carpenter | 2027 | Wing | 6’6” | The St. James Academy (VA)

Isaiah Carpenter is a long and athletic wing with a growing 3-and-D skillset. Carpenter is more of a shotmaker than a shooter, but he confidently knocked down shots and didn’t appear to let misses bother him. He shined on direct line slashes in the halfcourt and as a transition play finisher, where he had the play of the day: a vicious poster dunk that erupted the gym.

Carpenter was recently offered by St. Bonaventure this past July and would be an excellent fit there.

Daylen “Bam” Bolding | 2027 | Guard | 5’10” | Archbishop Carroll (DC)

Bam Bolding was absolutely a tough matchup for defenders and often seemed one step ahead. The dynamic and shifty guard mixed terrifying speed and quickness with ball skills and multiple-level shotmaking. He routinely created paint touches on his own in the halfcourt and transition for scoring and playmaking chances. Bolding is coming off a breakout junior season, and he appears poised for a stellar senior season.

Jahmai Drayton | 2027 | Big | 6’10” | The St. James Academy (VA)

The mix of size, length, fluidity, and mobility that Jahmai Drayton brings to the floor is impressive. Drayton impacted games at the rim in his usual play finishing/shot blocking role. From the stations to the group conversations, he took coaching and constructive criticism well. Drayton is another toolsy big man with upside to believe in.

Majok Aguek | Big | 2028 | 7’0” | Georgetown Prep (MD)

It was an up-and-down day for Majok Aguek as he missed some easy chances at the rim and had trouble with the physicality of matchups getting into his thin frame. However, the tools remain so intriguing and impactful.

Aguek never quit when things didn’t go his way; he stayed engaged and competed. Aguek is long, rangy, and mobile, and he showed terrific shot blocking timing on the ball and on the weakside. He continued to show his glimpses of touch and on-ball coordination at the various stations as well. Aguek is raw and toolsy with an ability to impact winning, especially defensively. Look for him to take another step forward this season.

Honorable Mentions

• Jordan Hunter

• Tristan Franklin

• Kye Gray

• Jacoby Briscoe

• Dave Mbuyamba

• Jahlil Waheed

• Brandon Brooks

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I’ve wanted to return to my “How to Evaluate by Position” series because, honestly, the way I look at guards keeps evolving. The 2026 NBA Draft class gave me a lot to wrestle with. Kingston Flemings, Darius Acuff Jr., Mikel Brown Jr., Labaron Philon Jr., Christian Anderson, Darryn Peterson, and Sergio De Larrea all played very different games, shouldered different loads, and solved problems in their own ways. It’s the offseason between scouting periods, so now is as good a time as any to hit the refresh button on my own philosophy.

The biggest thing I’ve realized while studying the guard position over this last cycle is that you have to understand a player’s role on the floor—and prioritize that context—to unpack who he is fully.

More than anything else, guards can offer clarity: clarity about how an offense is supposed to function, how the players around them fit together, and what everyone is being asked to do.

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I’ve been guilty in the past of rushing to judgment and not considering all the layers a guard is responsible for before diving into what he looks like on paper. Two guards might put up similar stats while carrying totally different creation loads for their respective teams. One could be attacking after someone else has already displaced the defense; another might be responsible for creating that initial advantage at the top. Another guard might be working in a system that gives him much more freedom to operate in carefully designed ball-screen situations. Then there are guards, especially in college basketball, who are stuck trying to organize a crowded floor and bail out late-clock possessions.

If I evaluate them based only on their box-score stats, I completely miss the reality behind the numbers and potentially misunderstand the role they’re headed for in the NBA.

So moving forward, I want to start with their role. What was the player really asked to do, and what did he have to work with? What did the offense make easier, and what did he have to figure out for himself? Context doesn’t excuse poor decisions or bad play, but it definitely changes what success and failure mean.

What does this actually look like on the floor? A common place to start is breaking through the initial layer of the defense and creating an advantage by driving downhill. But something I’ve had to wrestle with personally, especially after the 2026 cycle, is that not all paint touches are created equal. I used to give guards a ton of credit for simply getting into the lane. Now I’ve come to understand—or at least prioritize—that touching the paint and actually putting pressure on the rim are two different things because defenses don’t react to them in the same way.

What did the defense have to give up? Did the rim protector step up? Did the low man leave the corner? Did the drive produce an open pass, or did the guard have to settle for a tough shot because no help was drawn? Sometimes a guard crosses the free-throw line and… nothing really changes for the defense.

Philon and Flemings are great examples for different reasons. Philon got downhill with force, played through contact, and made defenders react. It wasn’t just about getting into the paint—it was about keeping the rest of the floor available after the first defender recovered or the rim wasn’t there. Don’t just track where the drive ends; watch what the defense actually does.

With Flemings, it looked a bit different in practice but came from a similar idea. Flemings played all year at Houston with pace, but “playing fast” isn’t the same as rushing. He sped up the action for everyone but often stayed under control himself. His burst created openings, but his balance, ball security, and willingness to keep reading the floor prevented the possession from turning into chaos. Raw speed looks impressive at face value, but if you’re arriving at the next problem faster without SOLVING it, then you aren’t helping as a guard.

On the flip side, Acuff’s tough shot-making was eye-opening at Arkansas. There’s real value in a guard who can bail out a broken play. NBA teams need that because sets break down all the time against the quality of defense and personnel on the court. Sometimes, though, a tough shot masks what went wrong earlier. Did he miss an easier read? Did he hold the ball too long? Sometimes the highlight make is actually covering up a process that can still be improved.

This line of thinking has led me to separate the ability to survive a broken possession from the skill it takes to keep the play from breaking down in the first place. Both matter, but I’ve most certainly underrated the second one.

Following that same creation logic, ball-handling has only reinforced for me that it’s a functional skill rather than a “flashy” one. Look, I love a creative handle like anyone else. After watching this class, though, I care even less about the number of moves and more about whether the handle actually accomplishes something. Does it shift the defender, open a new angle, or buy that extra split second to read the floor? If it doesn’t, what do the fancy combination dribbles actually mean if the possession is still dead and the guard is operating from a standstill?

Downhill pressure, pace, and ball-handling can all help create an advantage. Shooting can change whether that advantage is available in the first place.

Watching two of my favorite guards in this past class, Anderson and Brown, enhanced how I view the importance of shooting gravity and how it forces defenses to react before a play like pick-and-roll even takes shape.

Shooting percentages only tell part of the story; what matters is how the defense reacts before the shot even goes up.

Brown’s pull-up made bigs step out and forced defenders over screens, opening the lane before he even turned the corner. His shooting and playmaking worked together, each amplifying the other. Anderson’s range and volume forced defenders to stay glued to him and shifted where help could come from, even when he didn’t touch the ball. That made me pay more attention to their “gravity”—all the little ways a shooter changes the coverage.

Perhaps the most fascinating player to bring into this conversation after focusing mostly on lead guards is Peterson. He made me rethink the relationship between scoring and control over the offense. Those two things aren’t the same, but they aren’t completely separate, either. A guy can score a ton without really creating for others, but sometimes a scorer bends the defense so much that he’s already doing some of the playmaking work before delivering a single pass. Growth as an offensive player comes from recognizing when your own threat has already done enough and when it’s time to make the simple play.

Passing is different from playmaking. We intertwine the two all the time—myself especially—but passing is only one part of the larger process. Passing is the delivery; playmaking is the work that makes the delivery valuable. Now, when I see a great pass, I try to rewind and ask: what forced the help? Did the guard read the floor? Did the pass actually create something, or did it just move the problem elsewhere?

Preserving an advantage is just as important as creating one, and that’s something I’ve needed to recognize more. Not every possession needs more creation—sometimes the defense is already scrambling, and the guard just needs to keep it that way. One extra dribble lets everyone recover. Waiting for the perfect assist can close the window. Sometimes a quick swing or attacking a closeout matters more than trying to finish the play yourself. The right decision can look ordinary and still be the most important part of the possession.

Finishing and defense bring us into some of the more “uncomfortable” aspects of evaluating guards.

Finishing has gotten a bit complicated for me to evaluate personally, but I’ve taken notes on where I want to keep focusing, especially with guards. Beating the first defender is just the start of the play. The NBA has real length all over the floor, whether it’s the big staying vertical, the low man coming over to tag the roller, or help arriving from the side. The corners may already be covered. Now the guard needs options—everyone’s favorite buzzword lately. Can he change angles, use either hand, stop on two feet, get to a floater, finish before the rim protector is set, draw contact, or keep the pass alive while taking a hit?

For smaller guards, there’s less margin for error. That doesn’t mean you give up on them or write them off because of how tall they are or how much they weigh. Their shooting ability, as I went through above, might just be that much more important in warping the floor. Their handle needs to create cleaner separation. Their reads might need to come faster.

Off-ball play is another part of fitting in regardless of size or stature, and it’s something I’ve certainly paid more attention to over the last few draft cycles. Most young guards aren’t walking into the league and running every possession themselves. Some barely touch the ball in meaningful ways early in their careers. So what do they offer when the ball isn’t in their hands? Can the guard relocate, cut, attack a closeout, screen, make quick decisions, and stay involved?

That’s why, when we evaluate guards, the best long-term outcome isn’t always “full-time point guard.” Sometimes it’s being able to create enough, shoot enough, and make quick decisions well enough to play next to someone better. That might sound like lowering the ceiling, but think about where we are with current NBA lineup construction and offensive responsibilities.

Look around the league at all these teams with wing- or forward-sized initiators. We’re in an era where a team’s best advantage creator isn’t always a guard. With that in mind, how can those guards play off bigger creators and better capitalize on the advantages being created for them? I’m not saying you should take a guard who is mostly a play finisher incredibly high in the draft. However, a player who is excellent at those supporting skills could be the best contextual fit for a team that already has its primary creator and needs help elsewhere.

Then we get into defense, where the tradeoffs are often the toughest. I don’t expect every guard to be a stopper, but he has to be able to stay on the floor. Effort matters, but it’s not everything. Balance, angles, absorbing contact, and screen navigation all matter. With smaller guards especially, how much does the team have to adjust around them to provide protection? Can he hide on a lower-usage player? Does he need a bigger guard next to him? Will teams keep running the same action over and over again to hunt him? There’s no one answer, but the offense has to be good enough to make that tradeoff worth it.

One last thing I’ve learned: don’t fall in love with the best-case version of a prospect and forget about what actually gets him on the floor. Every guard needs to improve, but how many things need to get better at once? A guy who mainly needs to become a steadier catch-and-shoot threat is in a different spot from someone who needs to overhaul his shooting, finishing, processing, and defense all at once. If the shot isn’t respected, the driving lanes shrink. If the finishing doesn’t translate, help defenders stay home. If the defense can’t keep him on the floor, the offense might never get enough reps to grow.

Focus on the minimum version of the player. What already works? What gets him a job while the rest develops? What still matters if his biggest swing skill never shows up? Can he help a second unit, play alongside another creator, and stay on the floor when teams start hunting for weaknesses?

That’s where the 2026 class left me. I’m not looking for one body type, stat line, or style of guard play. I’m trying to understand how the pieces fit together: the handle needs to create a real angle, the shot needs to change the coverage, the drive needs to force a real reaction, and the guard has to spot that reaction before the opening disappears. The offense should still have something valuable happening when the ball leaves his hands. On defense, he can’t need so much protection that his offensive value gets buried beneath all the adjustments.

Some guards do all this quietly. Others hit tough shots and turn broken plays into points. Some create the first advantage, while others are best at keeping it alive. The 2026 class reminded me not to assume any one style is automatically worth more than the others.

In the end, my job is to figure out what the guard is really doing, why the defense is reacting, and what still works when the game gets tougher. I’m still learning, but that’s the lesson I’ll bring into the next class—and I hope it helps someone else working through the same questions.

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Every draft class has a handful of guys who walk into situations where they have massive shoes to fill. That’s the name of the game, though, when you go to big programs with NBA aspirations. The unfortunate part for this year’s freshmen, though, is that they’re replacing what could be a legendary freshman class from the 2026 NBA Draft. Kansas lost Darryn Peterson, BYU lost AJ Dybantsa, Duke lost Cameron Boozer, and Arkansas lost Darius Acuff Jr. It isn’t fair, but the freshmen who are filling those shoes are inevitably, even if it’s subconsciously, going to be compared to them. While this class is wide open, Tyran Stokes, Jordan Smith Jr., Bruce Branch III, and Cameron Williams are filling big shoes and are consistently talked about towards the top of the 2027 NBA Draft. Here’s how I currently view their games, how I think they’ll impact their teams, and where I’m willing to put them today.

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Tyran Stokes – Kansas

It had been a long time since Kansas landed top recruits, and now they’ve done it in back-to-back years with Darryn Peterson (#2) and Tyran Stokes (#1). Peterson and Stokes are vastly different players, so the one-for-one replacement isn’t applicable, but their role as the focal point of the team is. What they also share, though, is that they are arguably the most talented players in their class. On paper, Stokes should be the no-brainer top overall prospect for the 2027 NBA Draft. Listed at 6’8” and 230 pounds, Stokes has the combination of power, size, and skill that nearly every NBA front office looks for in their wings and forwards. Stokes can be disruptive on defense, a bull around the rim, a dynamic shooter, and a versatile playmaker. It’s a blend of capabilities that few players his age possess.

Unfortunately, Stokes is very hot and cold, both on and off the court. His off-the-court issues have been well documented, but even on the court his game has a lot of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde to it. While Stokes has almost always put up superb numbers, his execution, work rate, and fundamentals haven’t always been there. I think Stokes has by far been at his best in Team USA settings. Even when he isn’t putting up gaudy numbers, he’s executing his role, doing the little things, clapping up teammates, and staying consistently engaged. In high school and AAU settings, though, Stokes tended to put up better numbers but had some of the most frustrating film you’ll find from someone with his talent. It was way too common for Stokes to have games where he was totally disengaged on defense, never boxed out on rebounds, had some of the worst body language you’ll see, and had an incredibly questionable shot selection.

The question with Stokes coming into this year has nothing to do with his talent, but more so which version are we going to get. Sometimes, all it takes is a new setting and a new voice to unlock the best in a player. Hopefully, Bill Self and the Kansas staff will be able to do that with Stokes this year. If they can, then Kansas is going to have one of the most dynamic wings in the country who is a versatile three-level scorer, brilliant passer, and disruptive defender. If we get the Team USA version of Tyran Stokes, he’s likely going to be a Top 3, if not first overall, pick.

On the Record: Stokes should go first overall, but I worry there’s just as good of odds that he doesn’t go Top 3.

Jordan Smith Jr. – Arkansas

Any guard that is going to a John Calipari-coached team is going to face steep expectations, and Jordan Smith Jr. is no exception. What Darius Acuff Jr. did for Arkansas last season was insane. While Smith could impact winning at a similar level, it’s crucial to understand that he’ll do it in a vastly different style. Smith isn’t the shifty, dynamic scoring/playmaking point guard that most of Calipari’s guards tend to be. Instead, Smith finds his success through his athleticism/physicality, defense, malleability, and steadily growing offensive game. Think more Cason Wallace and less Darius Acuff.

As a senior at Paul IV, Smith won basically everything there was to win, from Gatorade National Player of the Year to Naismith Player of the Year to USA Today Player of the Year along with myriad other accolades. Whenever Smith is on the court, you feel his impact. That includes last summer when he was playing with AJ Dybantsa, Mikel Brown, and Cameron Boozer on Team USA, where Smith had numerous stretches where he looked like the best player on the court. In that setting, Smith did a brilliant job of scaling down his game and impacting winning through his defense and secondary creation. At Paul IV, Smith was the driving engine of the offense, where he was the primary scorer, playmaker, and creator. That versatility in terms of impacting winning is why Smith could be the first guard off the board in the 2027 NBA Draft.

The biggest leap that Smith made in his senior year was as a shooter. He still has a lot of work to do, and it’ll likely be his swing skill this year, but there were very encouraging signs from his volume and shot versatility. Smith tends to shoot a line drive ball, though, which does bring his touch into question, especially with his mediocre free throw percentage. Where Smith was at his best, though, was attacking the rim. He does a great job playing off of two feet, finishing through contact, knocking down tough midrange jumpers when his drives get cut off, and using his scoring gravity to find open teammates. Highlighting the shot as the improvement area is always the easiest, but there are other areas I’d love to see Smith take a big leap in this year. The first is with his at-rim finishing. He’s good around the rim, but the vast majority of his finishes are power-based, and he plays off two feet a lot. Neither of these are bad things, but I’d love to see some more versatility with finesse finishes, finishing craft, and playing off one foot with deceleration, Eurosteps, etc. incorporated into his game. Also, his playmaking needs to take a substantial leap. He’s a very good passer and does a great job keeping his dribble alive through contact. However, a lot of his playmaking stems from him countering rotations and using his scoring gravity. This is fine for a two-guard or combo guard, but at his size, Smith will likely need to ultimately lean into more of the point guard role. If he can speed up his processing and manipulate defenders in situations other than out of his drives, it’ll make his translation significantly more exciting.

Smith likely won’t be the type of point guard that Acuff was, where you throw him the ball and ask him to go create magic. Instead, Smith is the type of player who can fit effortlessly in any setting he’s thrown into, do whatever’s asked of him, and make life easier for those around him. If Smith was a few inches taller, he’d likely be most people’s top prospect entering the year.

On the Record: Smith is my top prospect, and if he was a few inches taller, I think he’d be almost unanimous right now.

Bruce Branch III – BYU

When it comes to filling the shoes of a predecessor, no one may be in a more unfair position than Bruce Branch III. Branch is a very intriguing wing, but he is a vastly different player than AJ Dybantsa. If BYU fans are hoping that Branch will be able to step in and take on a similar role that Dybantsa had, they’re going to be disappointed. That’s not meant as a denigration of Branch; it just isn’t who he is as a player.

Where Branch struggled the most last season was with his on-ball creation. His handle is just alright, and his athleticism/explosiveness leaves a lot to be desired in terms of on-ball creation. He doesn’t have much wiggle and struggles to get to the rim or create space. Far too many of his drives result in midrange turnarounds. If he’s doing that against high school defenders, he’s undoubtedly going to struggle against college ones. This is where proper expectations and scouting a player for who they are rather than who you want them to be come into play, though, because I really like a lot of Branch’s game.

As a 3-and-D wing, Branch has a ton of upside. He has a promising shooting stroke, especially when his shoulders are squared up. He also moves well without the ball, is very effective on the boards, and is a highly intelligent passer. He’s the type of player that can be put in motion and given the leeway to make myriad decisions. Where I get really excited about his game, though, is on defense. He needs to get a little stronger, but his awareness, fundamentals, and physicality are fantastic. He does such a good job of sitting down in his stance, sliding his feet, defending with his chest, and staying disciplined on shot fakes. Branch is not the heir apparent to the Dybantsa role. However, with his high feel, off-ball scoring, connective passing, and defense, Branch offers a lot in the Moses Moody/Devin Vassell vein.

On the Record: Branch has Top 10 upside, but if his handle and shooting consistency don’t take a leap, he may be closer to the 20s.

Cameron Williams – Duke

Duke’s run on bringing in talented forwards continues with Cameron Williams. Unfortunately for Williams, he’s following two of the most dominant freshmen seasons we’ve ever seen from Cooper Flagg and Cameron Boozer in back-to-back seasons. I don’t think that we’re in store for a threepeat. While Flagg and Boozer were incredibly polished for their age, Williams is much more of an upside bet.

Listed at 7’0” and 215 pounds, Williams has a skill set that is easy to get excited about. He’s a legitimate spot-up shooter who can provide unique floor spacing. He’s also shown some fun flashes of an above-the-rim finisher out of rolls and in transition. On top of that, there are a few more levels that can be unlocked with Williams’s passing. He’s someone who can be a zone buster from the middle of the floor with his shooting and passing. With a bit of experience and coaching, he could provide a massive impact out of the short roll as well. Williams really struggles to create anything for himself as his handle needs a ton of work, but if he can sharpen his passing consistency, it’d unlock some crucial aspects of his game.

Where I get the most excited for Williams, though, is on defense. He has a lot of work to do still. I’m not trying to paint a fraudulent picture because his lower body strength, box outs, and rebounding need meaningful work. However, I’m optimistic about his foundation as a defender, especially off the ball. Williams does a good job of patrolling the baseline and protecting the rim in help situations. He keeps his head on a swivel, is active on rotations, and does a good job swatting shots. There are plenty of examples of him sitting down in a stance and sliding his feet in space as well. As he gets stronger and the game slows down for him, Williams could see a massive leap in his defensive impact.

There’s a very real world where Williams has a tremendous season that makes him a Top 10 pick, but it also wouldn’t shock me if we see him back in Durham for his sophomore season. Flagg and Boozer have set expectations high at that position, but that’s not the type of player Williams is (you may want to look at Joaquim Boumtje-Boumtje if you’re eager to throw out Boozer comps). Williams has a ton of upside, but the question is how quickly it will be unlocked. There’s nothing wrong with it taking an extra year, and two years of Williams and Boumtje-Boumtje should get Blue Devil fans excited.

On the Record: There’s a lot (you could even say all) of basketball left to be played, but I’m not sold on the notion that Williams is a one-and-done.

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Welcome to the Ahead of the Curve series! This series is designed to identify prospects, by conference, who evaluators, decision-makers, and fans should be tracking as potential risers and sleepers this cycle.

To qualify, I’m focusing on those that are projected to be second round picks and undrafted free agents (UDFA) to begin the 2026-2027 season. I’ll make the pitch for each prospect accompanied by three questions to monitor. Without further ado, let’s get you ahead of the curve on five guard prospects out of the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC).

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Acaden Lewis | Sophomore | 6’2” | 180 pounds | Miami

2025-2026 Stats: 12.2 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 5.3 APG, 1.9 SPG in 30.6 MPG (33 G)

2025-2026 Shooting Splits: 45.6/27/58.3

The Pitch

One of the most unique guards in the entire country. Acaden Lewis plays with a mesmerizing herky-jerky style that keeps defenders off balance and guessing what he’ll do next. His playing style is reminiscent of guards like LaMelo Ball, Mikel Brown Jr., and Brandon Jennings.

He’s incredibly creative and tricky with a live dribble while being deceptively strong, allowing him to create point touches on his own, manipulate pick-and-rolls, and access his scoring spots despite lacking ideal athleticism. The multiple-level pull-up and stepback/sidestep game are absolutely lethal when he’s clicking. There aren’t many other collegiate guards that can match Lewis’s high-level blend of footwork, craft, touch, tough shotmaking, and ambidexterity at and around the rim (60.2% FG at the rim in the halfcourt via Synergy).

The driving force of Lewis’s profile is his advanced pick-and-roll operation and overall playmaking ability (176 assists to set the Villanova freshman record). He’s a dangerous shotmaker across three levels that can read defenses, play in the pocket, and deliver live dribble dimes with either hand in addition to his connective hit ahead and skip passes.

With expected high usage under a quickly rising star head coach in Jai Lucas, Lewis is in position to build on his Villanova freshman campaign and be a pivotal piece for a Miami team that has its sights set on a deep NCAA Tournament run.

Three Questions to Monitor

1. Is he too streaky of a three-point shooter? After connecting on just 27% of his threes (3.0 3PA), there is understandable concern and a need to produce a quality season from distance. I believe in his shooting long-term; there is too much touch and shotmaking ability not to.

2. Will his decision-making progress? At times, Lewis can be too risky with his decision-making from attempting to fit too many tough passes in tight spaces, questionable shot selection, and essentially trying to hit a home run when only a base hit is needed.

3. Can he hold up defensively? Lewis isn’t blessed with overwhelming defensive tools, but his marriage of anticipation skills and quick hands allows him to impact games as a defensive playmaker (1.9 SPG, Villanova freshman record 63 total steals).

Zac Foster | Sophomore | 6’4” | 190 pounds | 6’9” wingspan | Clemson

2025-2026 Stats: 6.9 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.5 APG, 0.4 SPG in 18.6 MPG (12 G)

2025-2026 Shooting Splits: 31/27.7/81.8

The Pitch

Zac Foster is a dynamic four-star recruit from a basketball family (his brother Marcus played at Xavier and his mother Sheri is in the Loyola Marymount University Hall of Fame) who unfortunately had his freshman season cut short after 12 games due to a season-ending ACL tear.

Even in a limited sample, his tantalizing combination of physical tools and versatility shined. When Clemson visited Georgetown last season, I was able to get an in-person viewing of one of his better performances: 11 points, two rebounds, four assists, and one steal across 19 minutes off the bench. As a bigger guard, Foster is able to get downhill and to his spots with physicality, craft, and burst, then have the athleticism to finish above the rim and the shotmaking talent to be a scoring threat on multiple levels. His flashes of playmaking and feel are very real areas to mine that will significantly alter both his floor and ceiling.

Considering it can take multiple years for players to find their comfort and trust in their bodies/game after ACL injuries, I might be a season too early on Foster’s emergence. Regardless, he’s a long-term prospect with two-way upside that evaluators should be tracking. Get your stock now.

Three Questions to Monitor

1. Can he stay healthy?

2. How long will it take for him to regain his form? Foster isn’t playing on Clemson’s current exhibition tour in Italy and rightfully appears to be eased into the season.

3. Can he develop into a full-time point guard or is he destined to be more of an ancillary guard who can alleviate some of the point guard load?

Rowan Brumbaugh | Senior | 6’4” | 185 pounds | Southern Methodist University

2025-2026 Stats: 19.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.6 SPG in 36 MPG (33 G)

2025-2026 Shooting Splits: 45.2/36/80.4

The Pitch

Over the past couple of seasons at Tulane, Rowan Brumbaugh has steadily developed into one of the best point guards outside of the Power Four conferences after short stints with Texas and Georgetown. He returns to the Power Four this season to be the floor general and engine for the SMU Mustangs.

Brumbaugh is a wonderful pick-and-roll handler who opposing teams must account for as both a scorer and playmaker. He possesses a feel for manipulating ball screens with pace, flips, and rescreens while using his eyes to move and freeze defenses. Brumbaugh can reliably play in the pocket, whip skip passes, and get to his pull-up game. The value isn’t just on the ball. Draining 44.4% of his unguarded catch-and-shoot threes (54 3PA via Synergy), Brumbaugh brings the steady off-ball shooting and floor spacing to play alongside a primary creator.

I would be shocked if Brumbaugh isn’t a leading name for the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament (PIT) and doesn’t earn an invite to the NBA Combine. His pathway to the NBA is likely in a backup or third guard role.

Three Questions to Monitor

1. Can he consistently finish amongst NBA trees? Brumbaugh is a below-the-rim finisher without much vertical pop. He must show that he can find consistent success against the NBA-caliber size and athleticism that ACC will deploy.

2. Are the athletic concerns too limiting on both ends of the floor?

3. Will there be a readjustment period back to Power Four basketball or will he hit the ground running?

Aiden Tobiason | Junior | 6’5” | 200 pounds | 7’0.75 wingspan | Syracuse

2025-2026 Stats: 15.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.2 BPG in 35.3 MPG (32 G)

2025-2026 Shooting Splits: 48.0/33.8/80.0

The Pitch

Aiden Tobiason enters his first season with Syracuse after a breakout sophomore campaign as a member of the Temple Owls and a standout G League Elite camp where his combination of a shoot-dribble-pass skillset and defensive tools piqued the interest of NBA evaluators.

The Wilmington, Delaware native isn’t the most bursty or explosive of athletes, but he’s able to get to his spots with craft and footwork, featuring a go-to hesitation, crossover, and stepback move. The midrange is where we mostly see his intriguing self-creation flashes and tough shotmaking ability upside.

Tobiason is converting at a 65% clip at the rim in the halfcourt on 100 attempts. That ridiculous plus wingspan is leveraged for extension finishes with both hands alongside touch and capable above-the-rim athleticism when there is a runway. I love the fearlessness that he will attack with. Although lean, Tobiason rarely shies away from contact at the rim and will often initiate it.

The off-ball work is marvelous and my favorite part of his game. He’s a tremendous cutter that understands timing, how to set defenders up before darting to the rim, and just always feels like he’s moving. Knocking down 35.5% of his catch-and-shoot threes (via Synergy), including movement shooting flashes, Tobiason should warrant closeouts and is more than capable of attacking them for scoring and playmaking chances.

His pairing of outstanding length and activity fuels his defensive appeal. There is a 3-and-D floor with upside as Tobiason continues to add strength and develop his game.

Three Questions to Monitor

1. How good of a three-point shooter is he? Logging more minutes and higher usage, Tobiason’s three-point percentage dropped from 41.2% (1.9 3P) to 33.8% (4.3 3PA). I’m ultimately buying him as a viable floor spacer because of his touch and shotmaking, but another year of evidence should ease the concerns of most evaluators.

2. Could his playmaking become a reliable ancillary skill? Tobiason needs one and has shown flashes as a connective and pick-and-roll handler playmaker.

3. What’s the NBA role? The role likely is 3-and-D guard/wing, but there could be real on-ball juice as a secondary handler.

Ben Hammond | Junior | 5’11” | 170 pounds | Virginia Tech

2025-2026 Stats: 13.2 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 3.2 APG, 2 SPG in 31.4 MPG (32 G)

2025-2026 Shooting Splits: 43.8/43.1/86.5

The Pitch

Ben Hammond is the type of small guard that absolutely understands the assignment: control the game offensively while being a disruptive defensive pest at the point of attack and in passing lanes (finishing second in the ACC in SPG).

Thanks to a blend of speed, quickness, and shifty handle, he’s able to create paint touches on his own in the halfcourt plus be a ridiculous blur in transition for scoring and playmaking opportunities. When working ball screens, Hammond can split them with ease or effectively snake them (despite his smaller stature) to get all the way to the rim for tough finishes, stop and pops in the midrange or beyond the arc, and find his teammates via lobs, drop-offs, and spray-outs. Because of his shooting prowess, Hammond forces defenders to either push up to prevent open threes or drop to avoid getting blown by, forcing the defense into scramble rotations.

There might not be a better two-way guard in the ACC than Ben Hammond. Projected to be a full-season starter for the first time in college, Hammond is bound to firmly entrench himself on the NBA radar.

Three Questions to Monitor

1. How real is the three-point shooting? Across his two seasons, Hammond is a 44.9% career three-point shooter on 2.2 3PA (138 total 3PA).

2. Is he too small?

3. Is there an elite skill or collection of compensating skills for his lack of size? Maybe it’s the shooting or the shooting paired with his speed/quickness, ball skills, playmaking, and defense.

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