2023-24 Big 12 Conference Preview

The No Ceilings crew continues their Conference Preview round tables for the 2023-24 season with the Big 12.

Nov 01, 2023

The college basketball season is just around the corner, and the NBA season is off to a roaring start. While many of the rookies from the 2023 NBA Draft are making headlines, the 2023-2024 NCAA season will show prospect evaluators who might be joining this year’s rookies in determining the NBA’s future.

Before the college season gets underway, we simply had to gather the No Ceilings collective for a roundtable and discuss some of the top prospects and players who might be primed to break out and establish themselves on the draft scene. Today, we continue our conference previews with the Big 12.

1. Ignore “consensus” boards and Twitter groupthink. Who is the best NBA prospect in this conference?

Stephen: Ja’Kobe Walter has been surprisingly low on a lot of boards, but he has many fans at No Ceilings–myself included. This class has gotten a lot of 2020 Draft Class-type love, but many of the hits from that class have been in the spotlight this summer. Walter could have a similar trajectory at Baylor, as he has great size, athleticism, and a deep bag. Baylor has done well with players like Ja’Kobe–and he might be the best they’ve brought in.

Maxwell: I’m a big fan of Ja’Kobe Walter. He’s long with a good body and a deep scoring bag. When he got cooking during GEICO Nationals, it was breathtaking. Additionally, he takes great care of the ball and can whip some eyebrow-raising passes. He’s got loads of poise, swagger, and skill. His size should help him on defense, too. There’s a lot to love on both ends of the floor.

Rucker: There’s a BAD man waiting to be unleashed at Baylor this year. It’s going to be Ja’Kobe Walter. When you go back and watch Ja’Kobe’s high school film, you find yourself intrigued by his potential. If you dive a little deeper to watch his previous EYBL film…you might fall in love with the offensive weaponry. Baylor is going to have a talented backcourt with plenty of mouths to feed. But it wouldn’t shock me if Walter becomes a force for the Bears this year and starts cementing himself as a Top-5 pick in 2024. Walter has also shown that he has the tools to be a disruptive force defensively.

Corey: Ja’Kobe Walter rips. He’s a three-level scorer who can play on or off the ball, defend, and has shown intriguing playmaking flashes. He doesn’t have quite the aggressive green light mentality that Keyonte George had, but he has very similar tools. Walter has the potential to become a mainstay in the Top 5 convo this year.

Metcalf: Ja’Kobe Walter. Get used to the name because you’re going to be hearing it a lot from us. That is unless you’ve been listening all summer and are already annoyed by it. If that’s the case, then apologies, thank you for the support, and I’m also not really that sorry. Walter is an incredible talent who is going to surprise a lot of people this season.

Nick: Not to be boring, but I have to go with Ja’Kobe Walter here as well. He has the potential to be a real difference-maker on both ends of the floor, and he still has a ton of upside to explore on the offensive end.

Rowan: There are some other exciting players on Kansas, Iowa State, and even Baylor, but none are that close to Ja’Kobe Walter as a pro prospect.

Albert: Ja’Kobe Walter. He’s going to be sick, just trust us.

Stephen: Ja’Kobe Walter has been surprisingly low on a lot of boards, but he has many fans at No Ceilings–myself included. This class has gotten a lot of 2020 Draft Class-type love, but many of the hits from that class have been in the spotlight this summer. Walter could have a similar trajectory at Baylor, as he has great size, athleticism, and a deep bag. Baylor has done well with players like Ja’Kobe–and he might be the best they’ve brought in.

Evan: It’s hard to argue with the consensus here; Ja’Kobe Walter is the choice. His two-way potential is tantalizing. I expect Milos Uzan to give him a real run for his money for this spot, but ultimately Walter will be a contender to be a top-five selection by the year’s end.

2. Admittedly, one of the most satisfying parts of analyzing the draft is being able to look back and say “psh, about time you guys took notice of him. I’ve been hyping him up for ages.” Who is the prospect that you are irrationally high on?

Stephen: Nae’Qwan Tomlin’s story is a remarkable one, and I think the best is yet to come for him. He is an interesting frontcourt player who might be able to play all three positions depending on the team he gets selected by. I thought he was draftable last season, and he could be the featured player for Kansas State this year.

Maxwell: Iowa State’s Omaha Biliew. He’s not the deepest sleeper or anything like that, but I think his ceiling is quite a bit higher than it gets credit for. He’s so mobile, explosive, and active. He’s tough and he competes. His track record as a shooter isn’t great, but I think the shot looks clean enough that it’ll get there. He’s going to cover multiple positions, make winning plays, and implement his will through physicality. Once he gets to shooting consistently, and I think he will, he’s going to look like what NBA teams want out of a forward.

Rucker: Iowa State’s Omaha Biliew is the choice for me as well. Omaha was trending as a name that could be popular in preseason lottery rankings on big boards. After an up-and-down FIBA display this Summer, that stock has cooled a bit. I’m going off the eye test and what I saw in person in Portland at the Nike Hoop Summit. Omaha was a relentless worker and should be determined to hit the ground running this year for Iowa State. It wouldn’t surprise me if he quickly reminds everyone why he’s such an intriguing prospect.

Corey: Omaha Biliew. Biliew has an NBA-ready frame and has the tools to become the kind of power wing that teams covet. Omaha has a relentless motor and is going to be able to guard damn near every position. The jumper is a work in progress but I don’t think it’s a weakness. He’s willing to shoot it if he has a little space and has even shown some flashes of letting it fly off the bounce. And the kid is an absolute worker. Post-scrimmage at the Nike Hoop Summit, Biliew stayed on the court for about an hour to get shots up. It was seemingly a contest between him and Carter Bryant as to who would be the last to leave the court. Hard not to buy in on a guy with his work ethic, character, and tools.

Metcalf: I’m sure he’s someone else’s answer for a later question, but Milos Uzan is my answer here. This is going to be an annoying platitude, but he just knows how to play. He constantly stands out when he’s on the court and operates the offense with an immense level of comfortability. There’s a real chance he plays his way into first round consideration come draft time.

Nick: I’m fully on the Terrance Arceneaux train, and I hope that he can have a more consistent season after his minutes and offensive success swung wildly last season. What was consistent, though, was his defense–Arceneaux was one of the best defensive wings in college basketball last season, and he could quickly shoot up draft boards if he irons out some of the kinks in his offensive game.

Rowan: With so many returning players to the college ranks, Terrance Areceneaux has somewhat slipped through the cracks. That does a disservice to his game, as he’s a great wing athlete, a dogged defender who can match up against multiple positions, and has shown enough flashes with his jumper to hint at being a quintessential “3-and-D” wing at the next level.

Albert: Give me Kerr Kriisa, please. SIKE. It has to be Elmarko Jackson for me. I like how he just glides into the lane whenever he wants. I really like the pace and savvy he plays with in the mid-range and I’d like to see him continue to expand his range. I think he’s an okay shooter, so we’ll see how that goes. He’s a pretty good passer already, but some more finetuning in that department will help as well. Elmarko is a great name, you should get points for that.

Evan: Houston’s Emanuel Sharp. In the wake of Marcus Sasser’s departure to the NBA, I believe there’s a real opportunity for Sharp to take over as the Cougars top scoring option. The redshirt sophomore is a smooth shotmaker who competes on the defensive end of the floor. If he’s able to rise to the occasion in a more featured role for Kelvin Sampson’s crew this season—Sharp has a chance to dramatically improve his draft stock in 2024.

3. Unfortunately, there are two sides to that coin, and they do not have equal probabilities. Which prospect do you like but think has the most likely chance of failing to meet expectations?

Maxwell: Dillon Mitchell is a name I still see on a lot of boards, and I’m not there yet. I get it—he’s hyper-athletic, he plays hard, and he can defend multiple positions. Offensively, I need to see something. So few guys can live in the NBA with such an interior shot diet, and even fewer (if any) are Mitchell’s height. He’s never shown a consistent jump shot, and he’s not much of a passer or ball handler. I just don’t see how he has a path to compete offensively in the NBA in the near future.

Rucker: Houston Cougars sophomore Terrance Arceneaux is trending as a popular pick to have a breakout year. Personally, I’m more in wait-and-see mode when it comes to the talented wing. Terrance is going to have plenty of opportunity to put forth a big year for the Cougars this year. I’m just not there yet, but time will tell if I start to run to the ticket booth to buy my spot in the fan club.

Corey: I’m with Rucker, it’s Arceneaux for me. I think Arceneaux can really defend and that is a valuable skill, but I think his offense is way behind. Last season it felt like the game was too fast and he looked like he had to force anything he did on the offensive side of the ball. With better and stronger athletes Arceneaux couldn’t rely on his physical tools to get himself to the rim, as defenders just don’t respect the jumper yet. Here’s hoping the game has slowed down for him and the jumper is coming along because he has intriguing raw tools that just need to be honed.

Metcalf: I just want to emphasize that the question states “prospect that you like,” but Omaha Biliew is my answer here. I love Biliew’s game and potential and fully expect him to be in the NBA one day. However, for some reason, teams are constantly trying to play him as a big instead of on the wing. I am begging for that to stop happening. Based on what I’ve heard, that seems to be the case this season as well.

Nick: I understood the hype around Arthur Kaluma heading into last season, but I have to admit that I wasn’t totally sold. After another up-and-down season at Creighton, Kaluma transferred to Kansas State in the offseason. The change in environment could help him put everything together, but I’m in wait-and-see mode with him for now.

Rowan: There are few games where Miro Little doesn’t sneak his way into my draft notes due to his steady mix of scoring and orchestrating the offense. He’s still young and has a lot of talent that could earn some draft looks, but he’s already facing an uphill battle in Baylor’s rotation. RayJ Dennis, Ja’Kobe Walter, Langston Love, and Jayden Nunn will all compete with Little for minutes and there may not be an easy path for him to show scouts just what he can do at the college level.

Albert: Is this the year for Arthur Kaluma? I have no idea, but could a new setting help? Kaluma was a big name heading into last season and he mostly disappointed and transferred to Kansas State. I’ve always liked his game and thought he’d put it together, but here we are again. I hope this is the year for him, but I’m not confident about anything.

Evan: I’m in total alignment with Stephen here, I also will go with Elmarko Jackson. I’ve seen the McDonald’s All-American mocked in the Top 10, and I’m concerned he won’t live up to those expectations. He’s an inefficient shooter, lacks positional size, and has poor decision-making as a playmaker. Additionally, having to play behind veterans like Kevin McCullar and DaJuan Harris may not allow him the ability to showcase his talent fully in the first place. I’m skeptical Jackson is a one-and-done prospect, let alone a lottery talent in this year’s draft class.

Stephen: I feel like a broken record with the players that I am selecting this season, but Elmarko Jackson is a player that concerns me in relation to the spots that I am seeing him mocked at. How in-demand is his player type in today’s NBA? How sure are we that he is going to get to flash all of his skills at Kansas alongside DuJuan Harris? I have my suspicions, but he can certainly make me look foolish for having early reservations.

4. The shiny new thing is always the most enticing to go after, but there is always a ton of value in older prospects. Based on their previous college seasons, which returning player are you most excited to watch and has the best NBA potential?

Maxwell: I think Nae’Qwan Tomlin might be that guy. He looked great in his first Division I season despite his relative inexperience for a player his age. His mobility, agility, and budding offensive skill set make him so intriguing. I think his passing is a little more creative than he gets credit for. He’s another guy where the shot looks better than the percentages. With another year under his belt, he could really assert himself on draft boards.

Rucker: I’m foaming at the mouth to see what Oklahoma Sooners sophomore guard Milos Uzan can do this year. Throughout the offseason, Uzan’s film has been some of my favorite film to watch when looking for players who can take a serious step forward. The Sooners will have a talented backcourt with Milos and transfer Javian McCollum. Uzan has the size and feel for the game that teams will look for. He should become a very popular name in NBA draft circles with a strong start to the year.

Corey: Shoutout to my guy Kevin McCullar but I’m going to pivot and go with Ja’Vier Francis from Houston. The former Montverde prospect didn’t play a ton of minutes last year, but when he did they were almost always impactful. His advanced statistical profile has been absolutely nutty the last two seasons with a career 15.5 BLK%, 21.1 DRB%, and 9.7 BPM. He doesn’t shoot it at all which is an issue in the modern NBA, but he’s super efficient around the rim and draws a ton of fouls. Francis doesn't have star potential but he’s one of my favorite sneaky role player bets in this class.

Metcalf: KJ Adams and Kevin McCullar stole a piece of my heart a long time ago that I’m never getting back. I’m not sure what Adams is in the NBA, but his passing, motor, rebounding, defense, and play-finishing will get him there eventually. McCullar has been one of the best defenders in college basketball for what feels like a decade now. He’ll find his way on a roster one way or another, but if the shot takes a meaningful leap this year, he could be a first round pick.

Nick: It took me longer than some of my colleagues to catch on to Nae’Qwan Tomlin, but I’m in on him now. He will have more room to expand his game on offense with Markquis Nowell and Keyonate Johnson off to the NBA, and Tomlin’s rapid development as a prospect could go up to another level as the main guy for Kansas State this season.

Rowan: As another player who I had a draft grade on last year, it’s easy to run back my positive evaluation on Nae’Qwan Tomlin heading into the 2024 season. He’s got the makings of a stretch-four due to his ball-handling, fluid movement, and crafty finishing, all of which he’ll now get to flex in a different role compared to his supporting casting next to Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson.

Albert: Give me all the Jalen Bridges stock, I’m all in. It’s always dangerous to bet on guys that ended the previous season on fire, but I just love what I saw from Bridges. I think he has NBA-wing size, he shot it better towards the end of last season and he just looks the part to me. Talking to Bridges recently, he noted that he spent a lot of time working on improving his ball-handling and decision-making. He also worked on his off-the dribble shooting, especially in the mid-range. When I asked him what part of his game he thought people were sleeping on, this is what he had to say, “I think my basketball IQ is slept on. I know how to space and cut to not only create opportunities for myself, but also to draw help and create shots for my teammates.”

Evan: I alluded to it a little in my first answer, but I’m all-in on Oklahoma sophomore Milos Uzan as well. There’s not much I can add that both Metcalf and Rucker haven’t said already. However, I’ll just say that I think he’s got a real shot to win the Big 12 Player of the Year award this season, on top of being the best pro prospect in the conference. He enters the year in the lottery on my personal draft board. Buy stock now if you haven’t already.

Stephen: I think Jalen Bridges is going to make people pay for where they ranked him last season–including me. He was on a heater toward the end of last season, and his film was a ton of fun. His jumper improved, he is a stout defender, and he doesn’t need the ball to be impactful. Players like him are always in demand in the NBA.

5. Whether it’s Anthony Edwards dropping 37 points against Michigan State or Austin Rivers ripping the heart out of UNC fans, or De’Aaron Fox vs. Lonzo Ball, fans are provided with mesmerizing matchups and performances every season. Which matchup, whether team vs. team, player vs. player, or player vs. team, are you most looking forward to?

Maxwell: Kansas vs. Baylor. Dajuan Harris, Elmarko Jackson, and Nicholas Timberlake vs. RayJ Dennis, JaKobe Walter, and Jayden Nunn. Jaylen Bridges vs. Kevin McCullar. Hunter Dickinson vs. Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua. Those are all fun, exciting matchups. Plus, so many of these players are super competitive. It’s going to be a blast.

Rucker: Kansas vs Baylor for me as well. Elmarko Jackson and Kevin McCullar going up against a talented Baylor backcourt and Ja’Kobe Walter? Enough said.

Corey: Baylor Vs Kansas. I can’t wait to see how Walter handles a defender like Kevin McCullar. And I have a fair amount of Elmarko Jackson stock. Lots to watch for in this one.

Metcalf: Baylor vs Oklahoma. The guard matchups between Uzan, Walter, Javian McCollum, Miro Little, Jayden Nunn, RayJ Dennis, and Langston Love (that’s a lot of Baylor guys) is going to be a delight.

Nick: Kansas vs. Baylor. The backcourt matchup between Elmarko Jackson and Dajuan Harris against Ja’Kobe Walter will be fascinating to see, and how those three perform will be exciting enough before we even get into the other potential NBA players in this contest.

Rowan: While it doesn’t come in conference play, the Kansas vs UCONN matchup will put a spotlight on how Kevin McCullar and Elmarko Jackson can matchup with Stephon Castle. Another great matchup is Baylor’s battalion of guards going up against a deep Iowa State Cyclones squad led by Omaha Billew.

Albert: I just want to see a big Ja’Kobe Walter game against anybody in the conference. I want him to go off for over 30 points and have all the different youtube channels creating compilations of his game immediately after. So my answer is Baylor vs. Anyone University.

Evan: Give me Oklahoma’s two meetings against Providence on December 5th and North Carolina in the Jumpman Invitational on December 20th. Milos Uzan getting a chance to take on fellow first round guard prospects, Garwey Dual and Elliot Cadeau, are must-see matchups.

Stephen: Baylor vs. Duke on December 20th is going to be packed with NBA Scouts. The matchups on both of these teams are littered with NBA talent. Matchups like this serve as separators for a lot of scouts when prospects are tightly grouped. Expect this matchup to be referenced a ton, even after it’s over.

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