2023-24 Big Ten Conference Preview
2023-24 Big Ten Conference Preview
The No Ceilings crew continues their Conference Preview round tables for the 2023-24 season with the Big Ten.
The college basketball season is just around the corner, and the NBA season is off to a roaring start. While many of the rookies from the 2023 NBA Draft are making headlines, the 2023-2024 NCAA season will show prospect evaluators who might be joining this year’s rookies in determining the NBA’s future.
Before the college season gets underway, we simply had to gather the No Ceilings collective for a roundtable and discuss some of the top prospects and players who might be primed to break out and establish themselves on the draft scene. Today, we continue our conference previews with the Big Ten.
1. Ignore “consensus” boards and Twitter groupthink. Who is the best NBA prospect in this conference?
Corey: I’ve been driving the Scotty Middleton bandwagon for the last two years, so no need to slow down now. 6’7” wings that have knocked down over 40% of their threes, can get funky in the midrange, and defend their ass off don’t grow on trees. For a full breakdown on his game, you can check out the preseason article I wrote about Scotty here: https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/scotty-middleton-deserves-your-attention
Metcalf: Middleton for me as well. He has elite defensive potential, is a reliable spot-up shooter, and showed impressive on-ball creation growth throughout last year. Top 10 for me entering the season.
Rowan: I wouldn’t call it a banner year for top-tier NBA draft prospects in the Big Ten, but Xavier Booker might have as much upside as any big man in the country. Few players are as bouncy, mobile, and anticipatory as Booker, and while he won’t be the Spartans’ centerpiece, there’ll be plenty of chances for him to strut his stuff in front of NBA scouts.
Evan: I agree with Rowan that this is an underwhelming year for the conference, in terms of NBA-ready talent. I’m going to go with the majority though and choose Scotty Middleton as well. The Ohio State freshman wing has one of the safest floors in this class. He’s a 3-and-D wing who has Top 5 potential if his shotmaking and creation ability continue to blossom.
Maxwell: I am also a Middleton man.
Stephen: Scotty Middleton. See Corey’s comments.
Albert: The answer is Scotty Middleton, but there is a world where Mackenzie Mgbako ends up on top by the end of the year. I wouldn’t put any money on it, but also I might put down a little. I just love Mackenzie’s shot-making ability, and anything is possible over the course of the season. Obviously, there’s so much to love about Middleton, but if everything hits for Mackenzie, he could be awesome.
Rucker: Ohio State freshman Scotty Middleton will be a name that can throw a thor-like hammer to big boards early in the year. Middleton has good size and can light it up in a hurry. He’s a versatile offensive weapon that has the chance to explode out of the gate.
Nick: Scotty Middleton seems to be the consensus pick here, and I can’t say that I disagree. His shooting touch and defense are special, and he could be one of the best prospects in this class if he continues to develop as an on-ball creator.
2. Admittedly, one of the most satisfying parts of analyzing the draft is being able to look back and say “psh, about time you guys took notice of him. I’ve been hyping him up for ages.” Who is the prospect that you are irrationally high on?
Corey: I think Illinois freshman Amani Hansberry is going to be a popular riser in draft circles this year. Hansberry is a super high feel/skill 6’8” forward with plus length. Hansberry wasn’t really in bad shape in high school, but he also wasn’t in good shape. That has seemingly changed this off-season as he looks to be in the best shape of his life. The added speed and athleticism should bring a new dimension to his game on both ends. Hansberry just always seems to make the right decision and gets it done on both ends. He is the kind of player that coaches trust and love having on the floor.
Metcalf: Please let it be a Roddy Gayle breakout year. Please let it be a Roddy Gayle breakout year. Please let it be a Roddy Gayle breakout year. Please let it be a Roddy Gayle breakout year. Please let it be a Roddy Gayle breakout year.
Rowan: Kevin Williard’s Maryland recruiting class is impressive in depth, but also in star power, as DeShawn Harris-Smith has a chance to skyrocket up draft boards once the ball tips. He’s a lanky, patient scorer who uses great angles to score; he has a high motor on both ends, and he should establish himself as the top Terrapin with his alpha dog mentality.
Evan: Trey Kaufman-Renn. Everything for Purdue goes through Zach Edey, however, I’m far more intrigued by the pro potential of several of his Boilermaker teammates this season. On top of that list would be Kaufman-Renn. The 6’9” forward has an enticing skillset, showcasing the ability to operate as an offensive hub out of the post, rim runner, or in the pick-and-pop game. His footwork, passing chops, and touch should catch the eye of evaluators as he takes on a bigger role this year. TKR will have to showcase a leap defensively and an improved efficiency from the three-point line on a higher shooting volume, to really solidify himself as a legitimate prospect for the 2024 class.
Maxwell: Tarris Reed. I love the man. He’s built like a defensive end, he’s tough as nails, and he still moves pretty well! In high school, he displayed exciting flashes as a passer and knocked down threes on a consistent basis. If that comes along, we could be looking at a first round pick.
Stephen: I cannot believe that Coen Carr of Michigan State hasn’t been getting a ton of love this preseason. My dude is a FREAK athlete, and he showed that he can shoot in his most recent film. Carr is firmly in my first round of players coming into the season, and I think, given the playing time, he could wind up being the unheralded freshman who makes a strong case to be a one-and-done player.
Albert: Keisei Tominaga, remember the name. I don’t know if he ever even makes the league, but what a fire-breathing dragon this guy is. Go look up his numbers towards the tail end of last season, you might need a shower after. Not sure about NBA upside, but very sure about the party-time upside. This dude is so much fun to watch.
Rucker: Really intrigued to see what Xavier Booker does at Michigan State early on. There are plenty of bigs getting attention in the 2024 class but Booker could be the wildcard to keep a close eye on early. The 6’11”, 220-pound freshman is a freak of nature, possessing a rumored 7’4” wingspan. Booker glides over the court and has times on tape in which he tries to physically harm the rim. If the tools can click early on, Booker will have NBA scouts drooling.
Nick: I’ve had plenty of reasons to sell my stock over the past couple of seasons, but I can’t get over my fascination with the kind of player that Coleman Hawkins could become. Sure, he falls in love with his shot too much at times, but 6’10” guys who can pass like him don’t grow on trees. If his shot takes a step forward this year–or if he takes a step back from letting it fly so often–he could make this prediction look brilliant instead of extremely foolish.
3. Unfortunately, there are two sides to that coin, and they do not have equal probabilities. Which prospect do you like but think has the most likely chance of failing to meet expectations?
Corey: Kel’el Ware is very talented. I’m completely willing to give him a clean slate and prove that he just needs a change of scenery to break out. BUT…I need to see some fire early on or I’m out. Being capable of knocking down pick-and-pop threes is cool but I’d much rather just see him focus on being the first guy down the floor on both ends, cleaning up the garbage, setting good screens, and diving hard to the rim. Just keep it simple and get after it!
Metcalf: Please let it be a Roddy Gayle breakout year. Please let it be a Roddy Gayle breakout year. Please let it be a Roddy Gayle breakout year. Please let it be a Roddy Gayle breakout year. Please let it be a Roddy Gayle breakout year.
Rowan: Call me Fox Mulder or Dana Scully, but I want to believe in Kel’el Ware this season. So far, he hasn’t tapped into those flashes to hit a vein of consistency. He’ll have all the room in the world to work in the paint for Mike Woodson’s Hoosiers, but the same effort and intensity issues that dogged him at Oregon could undo another golden opportunity for Ware.
Evan: It’s Mackenzie Mgbako for me. I definitely could see him living up to the hype for the Hoosiers in his freshman season, but personally, I just don’t buy it. This was a kid some people were trying to sell as a possible number one pick over the summer. He’s not anywhere close to that discussion in reality. The raw talent is extremely evident, but I think it might take Mgbako more than a year to put all the pieces to his game together.
Maxwell: It blows my mind that we’re still doing the Terrence Shannon thing. I guess he was a more willing shooter last year, and there’s no doubting his physical profile. But his inconsistency, especially for an older player, has become maddening. There need to be serious improvements to his jumper and off-hand for him to be a Top 60 guy for me.
Stephen: Kel’el Ware. Is this low-hanging fruit here? Ware was slated to be a lottery-level talent coming into last season and wound up as just a rotational big for the Oregon Ducks. Ware has very big shoes to fill for Indiana, while also looking to recapture the hearts of scouts. Indy might not have been the best choice for a floor-spacing big man–especially one that had such a let-down of a season.
Rucker: Hate to be the buzzkill here, but the choice for me is also going to be Indiana sophomore Kel’el Ware. The intrigue is understandable. Ware is a 7’0” big man with the potential to be a floor-spacing threat paired with some intriguing rim-protecting ability. But when motor questions come into the picture, it’s always going to be a red flag in my book. After a disappointing freshman year at Oregon, Ware finds himself at Indiana with prestigious head coach Mike Woodson. We will find out quickly if Ware is going to prove a lot of us wrong.
Albert: I’m just going to take this opportunity to talk about Amani Hansberry from the Fighting Illini. This dude is tough as nails, has awesome footwork in the pain, has a nice mid-range jumper, and will one day become a defensive weapon. He’s got great ball skills for a guy his size and will be a terror on the boards as well. I think he’s going to be awesome, I just don’t know if it’ll be right away for Illinois.
Nick: The range between the high-end and low-end outcomes for Kel’el Ware this season might be the widest for any prospect in this draft class. He could easily make last season at Oregon look like an aberration and work his way into the lottery, but another passive season from him could torpedo his stock entirely. I don’t think his season will end up at either end of that spectrum, but I would lean more toward disappointment than his most ardent believers.
4. The shiny new thing is always the most enticing to go after, but there is always a ton of value in older prospects. Based on their previous college seasons, which returning player are you most excited to watch and has the best NBA potential?
Corey: I think Wisconsin’s Connor Essegian has some really intriguing funk to his game. Essegian has an intriguing offensive toolbox that I can’t wait to see honed. As a freshman, Essegian shot over 35% from deep, 85% from the line, and 56% at the rim – the only other frosh who hit those scoring percentage thresholds was Brandon Miller. He’s a guy that can really sneak up on the draft community this year.
Metcalf: This has got to be Zach Edey. I know his game isn’t the sexiest ever, but all he does is produce at an insanely high level. He likely won’t be a dominant NBA force, but at this point, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t have a solid NBA career. Almost any statistical query you run, Edey will show up in it. He scores, rebounds, and defends. Oh, and he also never gets in foul trouble.
Rowan: The Illini are full of returning players with varying levels of draft intrigue, but Coleman Hawkins stands out due to his versatility. He can operate as an offensive hub out of the post, has the foot speed to switch on defense, can finish in the paint or defend the rim, and still could evolve into a short-range shooter, making him a malleable piece that NBA teams will clamor for soon if they aren’t already.
Evan: I’m really excited to see what kind of growth Wisconsin’s Connor Essegian makes this season. The sophomore guard is a pure bucket, and one of the smoothest shooters in the entire conference. Per Synergy, Essegian finished in the 64th percentile in points per shot rank on jump shots during his freshman year. He’s a lethal off-ball threat who excels shooting off of movement and punctuates it with his ability as a cutter. Essegian’s moxie, toughness, and offensive upside should land him on more draft boards, in due time.
Maxwell: I was always a Coleman Hawkins skeptic, but he was impressive at the NBA Combine. I know it’s a small sample, but seeing how well he moves defensively and how effective he could still be in a reduced role was encouraging. If he’s a bit more composed and the shot takes a step forward, there’s a first round path for him.
Stephen: I kept a close eye on AJ Storr last season, and I am very intrigued to see how he fits with Wisconsin. He’s had a great Summer with the Bohemian national team, and I think those vibes carry over to a strong Badge squad. I think he’s got a real shot to be drafted, as he is blessed with very good shooting, a fun transition game, and more skills that could be unleashed with more burn.
Albert: Give me the Big Maple, Zach Edey. I don’t even know if that’s his nickname, but we’re just trying stuff this year. Edey is a giant who moves really well for his size. We know he’s going to produce a ton and will always defend. These are good things, things that you need to be successful.
Rucker: Ohio State sophomore Roddy Gayle Jr. will have my attention early on. I’m a big fan of his game and believe that he’s been a bit slept on to start the year. At 6’4”, 210 pounds, Gayle checks the boxes from a physical standpoint. After a pair of impressive performances to end the year in the Big Ten tournament, time will tell if Gayle can carry that momentum over into his sophomore season. If it does, Gayle and Scotty Middelton could form a dangerous combination for the Buckeyes.
Nick: I’m looking forward to watching Zach Edey continue to dominate all challengers at the college level. He’s a walking mismatch at the college level, and he has the skills to find a long-term NBA fit in the right situation as someone who can come off the bench and punish teams who dare to go to small-ball lineups.
5. Whether it’s Anthony Edwards dropping 37 points against Michigan State or Austin Rivers ripping the heart out of UNC fans, or De’Aaron Fox vs. Lonzo Ball, fans are provided with mesmerizing matchups and performances every season. Which matchup, whether team vs. team, player vs. player, or player vs. team, are you most looking forward to?
Corey: There may not be five louder gyms in the country than when Jersey Mike’s is rocking Piscataway. Having the opportunity to watch how prospects respond to that environment in person is always something I value as an evaluator. The Big Ten always has a lot of big time prospects and getting to see all of them up close is one of my favorite aspects of the draft cycle.
Metcalf: I’m going to hate watch this game so hard and pray for a tie, but Ohio State vs Michigan State could be tremendously fun.
Rowan: Indiana vs. Kansas should be an informative game for a lot of guys on both sides, but both Mackenzie Mgbako and Kel’el Ware might not have a better opportunity to impress scouts against a well-coached, veteran-laden team like the Jayhawks.
Evan: Wisconsin vs. Marquette on December 2nd and Ohio State vs. UCLA in the CBS Sports Classic on December 16th, are both marquee games that check all the boxes for scouting purposes.
Maxwell: In conference, Purdue vs. Michigan State. MSU’s bigs vs. Edey should be fun, and the Braeden Smtih vs. AJ Hoggard matchup is pure, unadulterated nastiness. Maybe Myles Colvin and Coen Carr will get into the mix! It could be fun!
Stephen: Alabama travels to play the Ohio State Buckeyes on November 14th. Bama isn’t loaded with preseason talent at the top of their roster, but they have a number of interesting prospects. This could be a statement game for Scotty Middleton.
Albert: This conference isn’t going to be that exciting. Not a hot take, just a fact. Give me Kansas vs. Indiana, or Purdue vs. Michigan State. I’m sure one of those games will be good.
Rucker: Ohio State vs Indiana on January 6th will be circled on my calendar. Scotty Middleton and Roddy Gayle Jr. going up against Mackenzie Mgbako. Yep, you have my attention.
Nick: Ohio State vs. Indiana. Scotty Middleton vs. Mackenzie Mgbako is going to be my favorite matchup in this conference, and there’s intrigue beyond those two with Roddy Gayle Jr., Kel’el Ware, and Malik Reneau also in the mix.