2023 NBA Draft Lottery Team Preview: San Antonio Spurs
2023 NBA Draft Lottery Team Preview: San Antonio Spurs
The 2023 NBA Draft is almost here! Today, we take a look at the options for the San Antonio Spurs and how they can build around Victor Wembanyama!
Nathan: The San Antonio Spurs had all the luck in the room on lottery night, as the organization walked away with the #1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. Going into this season, everyone around the league was aware of who would be the prize in this year’s edition of the race to the bottom: Victor Wembanyama.
And with the power of choosing Wembanyama with the top selection also comes great responsibility in the NBA’s next superstar prospect suiting up for the franchise. Building around Wembanyama, and empowering him to be the best version of himself, will be top priorities for the Spurs this offseason and beyond.
The good news for San Antonio is the team has multiple methods to make the situation around Wembanyama as good as any rebuild could be. With anywhere between $30-46 million in potential cap space, and a bunch of young players with value of their own both around Wembanyama and potentially in trades to bring back veteran pieces, there’s no reason for San Antonio fans to have any sort of panic, especially with trusted executives and Gregg Popovich at the helm. The questions now turn to what exactly the Spurs do in the short term to accentuate Wembanyama’s development in the short term.
My easy answer for that would be to find an established point guard that can not only play off Victor but also get him the ball in the spots where he operates best. Having a veteran who knows the ins and outs of passing in pick-and-roll sets, that can work handoffs, and space the floor as a “break glass in case of emergency” around Wembanyama and the other wings/forwards in the lineup would go a long way in making sure he’s in position to succeed early on.
Fred VanVleet is the name that comes up the most in conversation because the Spurs have the cap room to offer him a contract worth his while, along with the opportunity to usher in a high-profile talent while also playing for one of the league’s most successful franchises and systems in history under Pop. While VanVleet wouldn’t be contending for a championship next year, he does already have a ring with the Toronto Raptors and could see this as a chance to stand out as a leader, not just as a player.
Other options on the table could include throwing an offer sheet at restricted free agent Austin Reaves, as well as looking the way of a mid-level free agent such as Gabe Vincent while also retaining Tre Jones on a fair deal. No matter which direction the Spurs could go, any of these names would go a long way in providing a proper dance partner for Wemby while also helping take pressure off young wings like Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, and Jeremy Sochan.
While we could certainly add to the conversation on the acquisition front as far as possibly finding another tenured center to pair with Zach Collins in the frontcourt around Wembanyama, there’s one more possibility on the guard front that has had fans buzzing for the last few weeks now: trading back into the 1st round for a chance to take a young floor general to pair with Wembanyama for the long term. Maxwell, IF you were to go for the route of youth vs. experience on the PG front, who would be your favorites to pair with Wemby and slot into the starting lineup of the future?
Maxwell: I love the veteran options you lined out. Reaves would be super intriguing in that he would be a stabilizer who can fill a multitude of roles. He has good size for his position. When he’s hot, he can take over a game. If you need him to slide into more of a backseat, he can do that as well. At 25, he’s a closer timeline fit than VanVleet, who seems like more of a target for the contending teams.
Before we get into other targets, let’s savor the flavor with Victor for a moment. He’s obviously the crown jewel of this draft class. Still, because we are little piggies who love slop (shoutout to TrillBroDude), we can’t help but skip over him to talk gossip. What’s happening with the second pick?! Is Zion on the move?! Let’s give Victor the focus of our attention for a minute.
The Spurs are getting a 7’5” player who is a force on both ends of the court. Playing in the French LNB league, he won MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, led the league in scoring, and took his team to the finals. That is an obscene resume for someone who won’t turn 20 until January. He averaged 20.9 PPG on 46.8/27.2/81.8 splits, 10.3 RPG, 2.4 APG, and 3.0 BPG. Those would be home run, number one pick stats at the college level for someone his size, let alone someone doing it in a legitimate pro league. In the last year, he’s cleaned up his balance and handle. His increased physicality enable him to get to the free throw line with much greater frequency. He deters rim attempts, and when players do test him at the rim, they only score 45.6% of the time in the halfcourt. He’ll protect the rim, swat shots, and force turnovers with his preposterous length. The Spurs are getting a ridiculous talent here, who will raise both their floor and ceiling immensely going forward.
Let’s talk trade ups, though. One target that I’m highly interested in is Cason Wallace. With Victor Wembanyama and Jeremy Sochan as defensive building blocks, the Spurs are already looking formidable on the back line. Add in Wallace, and now you’ve got a ready-made playmaker in the backcourt. His 3.7 STL% and 1.6 BLK% are eerily similar to the numbers Alex Caruso put up as a senior. With Wallace, there’s also some real, understated scoring upside. He was shooting 41.9% from deep prior to his back injury, knocked down a tremendous 44.8% of his pull-up twos, and is one of the better rim pressure/finishing guards in this class. At Kentucky, he also showed a level of maturity and an ability to play off his teammates when they were getting hot. He’s tailor-made for a complimentary offensive role, but his numbers suggest that he may be able to assume more of a leading role. I want guys next to Wembanyama who are content playing off the ball, but it’s important to still have dudes that can turn it up and get going. Wallace is one of those guys. He takes great care of the ball, too, and turnovers tend to be something that inhibits young teams from winning. Wallace has been sliding down boards a bit, and if they can sneak into the later part of the first to grab him, I’d be all over it. He seems to meet the ideal target— someone who brings valuable, but is gettable without having to part with too much in return.
Nathan: Looking to take Cason Wallace in a trade-in scenario makes a ton of sense for all of the reasons you outlined. This team has the makings of a defensive powerhouse with Victor Wembanyama, Jeremy Sochan, Keldon Johnson, and Devin Vassell. Adding arguably the best point-of-attack defensive guard in this class at the head of the snake would provide the type of foundation Popovich has had during his championship runs, which is essentially a brick wall no matter where opposing ball handlers turn.
Where I get a tad concerned with Wallace is just how reliable his outside jumper is going to be from a utility standpoint. You did a great job in finding ways to outline how underrated he was on the ball at Kentucky, between his pull-up shooting inside the arc as well as how he managed to get to the rim unassisted as a steady rate for crafty finishing opportunities. But playing with Wembanyama, who still isn’t a volume spacer from three, as well as streaky and/or non-shooters such as Johnson and Sochan, shrinks the floor a tad and limits effective spacing. Throw in the fact that the Spurs could look to start a more traditional big next to Wembanyama, such as Zach Collins, and those same issues still apply.
Therefore, I’m looking for a guard that can knock in a high percentage of shots off the catch and off movement, which is why Kobe Bufkin comes to mind. Not that Wallace can’t do these things, but Bufkin was excellent at relocating and hitting shots from all over the floor for Michigan last season. Another guard who can slice his way to the basket, finish a high percentage at the rim, and create out of pick-and-roll sets for himself as well as his teammates, Bufkin’s do-it-all game at PG seems like the type of gamble I’d love to make if I were in charge in San Antonio. Not to mention, you aren’t sacrificing much of anything defensively with Bufkin as the lead guard defender.
A case can be made for Jalen Hood-Schifino as well in terms of higher upside swing, as a 6’6” combo guard who can also score out of pick-and-roll, thrive in mid-range situations, and defend either position in the backcourt is appealing as a long-term play next to Wembanyama. I’m a bit more skeptical of JHS figuring out how to run the show right out of the gate as a decision maker, not to mention he needs to clean up his turnovers and bring that same intensity on defense as he did in high school on a consistent basis. But a team that has time to be patient like the Spurs could see enough with him that can be cleaned up in due time (and I believe in Hood-Schifino’s long-term potential) and see him as a greater play to maximize positional size and length around Wembanyama.
Do either of those guards tickle your fancy in a trade-in scenario Maxwell? And of course, now is the perfect time to “Draft Deeper” and discuss second-round options as well!
Maxwell: Out of JHS and Bufkin, I’m a little more drawn to Kobe Bufkin in this scenario. He gives that defensive playmaking element that drew me to Wallace. While he’s quite a bit smaller than JHS by any metric, he does bring more of an athletic punch to the table as well. Hood-Schifino has always been more of a perimeter-oriented, mid-range pull-up shooter type. With Bufkin, he’s going to get downhill more and he’s a fantastic cutter. The man knows how to contort around the basket to get himself clean looks and he’s an outstanding finisher. With Wembanyama playing away from the basket on a consistent basis, having Bufkin as an additional rim pressure force is quite appealing.
Let’s talk second round targets, though. The Spurs pick 33rd and 44th. A few guys tickle my fancy at 33. How do we feel about Trayce Jackson-Davis here? He’s a bit undersized for a 5 and he can’t shoot, but with Wembanyama at his side, those concerns become less pronounced. He has NBA strength and he can really fly for lobs and blocks (2.9/game, 9 BLK%). Plus, with his passing (4.0 APG, 24.8 AST%), there’s some gnarly high low, handoff, and 4-5 ball screen potential with those two. He might be a bit redundant next to Sochan, who is similar but a far more nimble defender, but he could bring tremendous value in the second.
Julian Strawther is another guy I’d consider there. He hit 43.7% of his catch-and-shoot threes. The dude is a legit floor spacer with size who competes hard on the glass, which is an area where the Spurs struggled last year. He’s shown a deadly floater when chased off the line the last two seasons. Plus, when he played alongside a similar archetype player as Wembanyama in Chet Holmgren, he did a phenomenal job of cutting. He ranked in Synergy’s 87th percentile as a cutter that season. Strawther knows how to fill gaps and play without the ball.
At 44, there are two others I’m drawn to. The first is Mouhamed Gueye from Washington State. With a 7’3.5” wingspan, Gueye has center size but a forward’s athleticism and movement patterns. He’ll need to get stronger, but he played a lot tougher as a sophomore, gobbling up 3.4 offensive rebounds per game. Despite getting slapped with the “raw” label a lot, he still had an assist rate of 14% and did a great job of orchestrating offense as the season progressed. His jump shot is interesting (27.7% over two college seasons), and if that comes along, he’ll be a steal. But even if it does, he could still make it work as an energy big man. His defense needs a lot of work on a fundamental level, but given his relative inexperience (only four years of organized basketball under his belt), there’s more room for optimism than in most cases. He’s a bit theoretical, but after interviewing him, I’m buying the person. He loves the game and wants to get better.
Seth Lundy is my other favorite target here. At 6’4” with a 6’10” wingspan and sturdy frame, he has the physical profile of an NBA wing. He can shoot like one, too, hitting 40% of his threes on high volume this past season. Lundy hit some tough ones at the NBA Combine, too, and seemed more than comfortable with the NBA line. At Penn State, he often took the toughest defensive assignment on the floor. He’ll wall off drives and keep opponents out of the paint. He’s not much of an off-ball playmaker, and offensively, he doesn’t offer much in terms of his creation. But as a plug-and-play wing who competes like his life depends on it, I love him in the second round.
Nathan, take us home here— who do you like for the Spurs in the second?
Nathan: The second round of the 2023 NBA Draft has become fascinating for a number of reasons, given the types of talent available as well as some names projected to fall into the late first/early second territory on draft night.
I’ll start by giving you some praise for the names you picked as they all make sense in their own way. Trayce Jackson-Davis is the type of big I would imagine the Spurs would love to have come off the bench because he gives the team something that’s not currently on the roster: a post-up game!
With TJD, the way he can operate out of the low post from a scoring and playmaking perspective off double teams could be what this team’s second unit needs to make the most of spot-up shooters and cutters. Zach Collins and Charles Bassey are threats to post, but offer more value as mobile roll men who can catch lobs and finish on dump offs. Not that Jackson-Davis can’t do those things as well, but he’s built to operate on the left block and go to work. Depending on the matchups, San Antonio could insert Jackson-Davis as a different type of target offensively who can also provide stellar rim protection and transition offense given his ability to grab and go.
Outside of a big man like him, you also mentioned Mo Gueye as a possibility, and I’d entertain that as well. Given that San Antonio’s timeline is open to long-term patience, selecting Gueye with a second round pick and giving him time to figure his game out in the G League could reap some awesome rewards down the line as a utility defender and face-up scoring machine. Your favorite wrinkle in his game, live-dribble passing, could also develop into more than a flash which would mesh well with the current personnel on the team.
As for Julian Strawther and Seth Lundy, they’re both music to my ears. There’s more upside to tap into for sure with Strawther as a guy who may have a little more on-ball juice than what he consistently got to show at Gonzaga, but either can space out with deep range, cut, move, and defend their position well enough to hang on the floor for stretches in NBA games. Either one has value as a rotational player.
I’d like to add two names into the mix here that depending on how far they fall could be within striking distance here: Amari Bailey and...GG Jackson!
Look, Jackson has gone through an unbelievable fall in the public eye given where his draft stock started preseason. That being said though, even though there are some concerns with his game, at some point, you have to take a swing on a 6’9” pull-up shooter with the handle to make guys miss, footwork, and athleticism to add to his positional versatility. Should he reach his ceiling as a jumbo creator on the wing, Jackson could be a major steal on draft night as we look back on 2023.
Bailey, on the other hand, has undergone a bit of a climb back up boards given his play late in the season for UCLA and at the NBA Draft Combine. He’s not the bounciest or quickest guard on the floor, but Bailey has great size for the point guard position, a steady command in pick-and-roll offense, and was an underrated defender all year for a team that finished amongst the best squads in the nation. With more time to refine his jumper, Bailey could end up returning starter’s value or serve as a rock-solid sixth man on a decent team. If the Spurs are unable to trade up for any of the names we mentioned earlier, or would rather sign a vet using projected open cap space, bringing in someone like Bailey to learn from said option and even someone like Tre Jones could turn out to be a smart move looking back.
No matter the direction this team goes on draft night, the Spurs need to add depth at PG, skilled size, and consistent perimeter shooting, be it in the draft or in free agency. With an experienced leadership council and scouting department, I’d expect San Antonio to be back in the mix in the Western Conference sooner rather than later.