2024-25 Big Ten Conference Preview
The No Ceilings crew continues their NCAA Conference Preview round tables for the 2024-25 season with the Big Ten.
The college season is right about to kick into gear, and the NBA season has just gotten underway. While many of the rookies from the 2024 NBA Draft are starting to find their way, the 2024-2025 NCAA season will show prospect evaluators who might be the next young stars determining the NBA’s future.
Before the college season gets underway, we’ve gathered the No Ceilings collective for a roundtable to discuss some of the top prospects and players who might be primed to break out and establish themselves on the draft scene. Today, we continue those conference previews with the Big Ten.
1. Ignore “consensus” boards and Twitter groupthink. Who is the best NBA prospect in this conference?
Austin: The margin between Rutgers teammates Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper is so thin that, since Bailey seems to be the popular choice, I’ll give a little love to Harper here. The 6’6” guard has a strong frame that allows him to drive and score at the rim through contact and against bigger defenders. He’s an improving shooter and while he isn’t the athlete that Bailey is, Harper can absolutely still move. I see a lot of Cade Cunningham in this guy.
Metcalf: We can clutch pearls over his shot selection, but this is easily Ace Bailey for me. Shot selection isn’t created equal for all players and what Bailey can do at his size in terms of scoring is really special. Don’t let the improvement areas mask the already impressive skill set and immense potential.
Rowan: Can I cheat and put two? Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey are poised to elevate Rutgers basketball from a notoriety and talent perspective this year, and both are in the top five on my draft board. While Bailey has a higher ceiling as a shot-making wing player, Harper fits into the type of stocky lead guard with size that every rebuilding team could use to jumpstart their offense. The two are close to neck-and-neck on my big board and would’ve been serious contenders to go first in last year’s draft, so until I’m told otherwise and disciplined, I’ll cheat a bit and put both of the Rutgers freshman phenoms here.
Jam: Ace Bailey with his teammate Dylan Harper a close second. There is just too much in Bailey’s favor—ideal wing size, movement and ball skills, special shot-making ability, and legitimate two-way superstar upside.
Nick: Ace Bailey is at the top of the list for me. He’s the clear #2 prospect on my board, and I wouldn’t be as surprised as some if he ends the year as the top prospect in this class. His shot-making ability at his size is incredibly rare, and he has the defensive chops to be a game-changer on that end as well. Bailey’s Rutgers teammate Dylan Harper is a remarkable prospect as well, but I have to give the nod to Bailey here.
Rucker: I’m going with Ace Bailey here but his teammate Dylan Harper is a heck of a talent as well. Bailey has the highest potential of anyone in this hyped draft class. The Rutgers freshman is listed at around 6’10” and will leave you shaking your head in disbelief with some of the things he can do on a basketball court. There’s still plenty of “seasoning” that is needed, but Bailey has some terrifyingly fun potential. If the game continues to develop, Bailey should have plenty of NBA Front Offices foaming at the mouth.
Corey: Having to make such a tough choice between two extremely talented prospects is why NBA front office executives make the big bucks. Luckily I don’t work for a front office and it’s only October, so this decision doesn’t carry a ton of weight. But at the moment I slightly favor Dylan Harper to Ace Bailey. There is no denying the value in a near 6’10” effortless scorer on the wing, but Harper’s combination of size, skill, feel, and two-way consistency offers just as much appeal. NBA teams should feel confident in Harper’s ability to operate as a primary ball handler, capable of going and getting a bucket and making high level decisions for his teammates.Harper has had a hell of a spring and summer on the high school all-star circuit and if he can shoot the ball consistently from range during his freshman season at Rutgers, he’ll look like a dude you can build an offense around.
2. Admittedly, one of the most satisfying parts of analyzing the draft is being able to look back and say “psh, about time you guys took notice of him. I’ve been hyping him up for ages.” Who is the prospect that you are irrationally high on?
Austin: Buckeye sophomore Aaron Bradshaw is my pick here. The long, athletic big man is in for a breakout year at Ohio State, where he transferred after an injury-riddled freshman year with Kentucky. He finishes through contact, can rebound the heck out of the ball, and maintains good consistency and nice touch in the paint. Bradshaw moves well for 7’1” and 215 pounds, and adding some muscle over the next year will be crucial for him to get to compete at the NBA level.
Metcalf: Kasparas Jakucionis was one of the most impressive players at Hoop Summit and is easily one of the guys I’m most excited to watch this year. High feel, good shot maker, smart defender, and quality passer. Jakucionis has all the tools to be a Top 10 pick and one of the best point guards in this draft.
Rowan: As Metcalf showed already, I’m certainly not the only one to have Kasparas Jakucionis in my Top 10 at this stage in the evaluation process, but after thinking about it, even that seems a bit low. Jakucionis has an excellent feel for directing an offense, can quickly get downhill, and elevates well to finish above his weight grade at the rim. Combined with solid defensive instincts and an evolving shooting profile, there’s not much to dislike with Jakucionis, and there's still a lot of upside left untouched. In a free-flowing five-out system at Illinois, even though he’s a freshman, I’m expecting Jakucionis to put the country on notice and breakout as one of the most exciting guard prospects in an already-loaded draft class.
Jam: We’ll see how playing time shakes out, but Ohio State freshman John Mobley might be the best shooter and playmaker both in the Big Ten and perhaps the entire draft class. Despite being a bit undersized at 6’1” and 175 pounds, he’s still a lethal shooter and shot-maker, with unlimited range and dynamic ball skills, who has an advanced feel for operating pick-and-rolls. He deserves more first round conversation heading into the season.
Nick: I held on to my Aaron Bradshaw stock 2024 prospect-wise for a while last season—maybe longer than I should have—and I’m interested to see what he looks like in a new environment for Ohio State. Other than putting on weight, the physical tools are all there for him to be the kind of rim-running, pick-and-roll finishing, shot-blocking interior menace that any NBA team could use; if he shows out in the first few weeks for the Buckeyes, he could climb boards quickly.
Rucker: I’m going to go with a little big of a swing here. Maryland freshman big man Derik Queen is one that I’m keeping a close eye on to start the year. Queen spent last season playing for a well-known Monteverde high school squad alongside Cooper Flagg (Duke), Asa Newell (Georgia), Liam McNeeley (UConn), and others. He’s a beast in the paint, listed at 6’10” and 246 pounds. Queen also has an eye-opening feel to his game, as well as some playmaking ability that will get you on the edge of your seat in a hurry. It’s going to be interesting to see how the rotation works at Maryland early on…but Queen could make some noise in the NBA Draft space rather quickly.
Corey: Shoutout to John Mobley Jr and his absolute strap but I have to roll with Derik Queen. I have had the opportunity to watch Queen a number of times in person in multiple settings and every time I see him play I ask myself if he was the best player on the floor. He certainly carries some concerns with regards to his frame and defense, but I’m willing to see how he develops in those areas, because dudes this height that can score and play make as effectively as he can don’t grow on trees.
3. Unfortunately, there are two sides to that coin, and they do not have equal probabilities. Which prospect do you like but think has the most likely chance of failing to meet expectations?
Austin: I like watching Kanaan Carlyle play, but I think it’s because he reminds me of when I try to play 2K. He suffers from being too ball-dominant at times, and that gets highlighted when his efficiency comes and goes, as it did throughout his freshman year. He shows flashes of being an impactful, athletic defender on the other end, but I don’t know. I’m just not sold yet.
Metcalf: I just don’t see it with Will Riley for this season. Riley had a meteoric rise in his recruiting ranking at the end of the season and there is plenty to be intrigued with in the long run, but I’m not totally sold that he’s a 2025 prospect. Riley is incredibly skinny, and the game still looks really fast for him. It wouldn’t shock me if he struggles with the physicality of Big Ten play and then returns as one of the better sophomores next year.
Rowan: Count me in on the Will Riley worry train. Riley caught fire this spring and summer due to some great offensive play at multiple levels, but after classing up to play for Brad Underwood this season, I’m a bit more sheepish about his chances to be one-and-done. Riley remains rail thin, which hurts his ability to defend on the perimeter and use his physicality to get easy shots. His shot diet right now is messy and bloated, full of tough turnarounds and forced looks from deep, which could get him benched or lead to extended droughts for the Illini. There are worlds where Riley makes me look stupid and proves these worries invalid, but there are also a lot of futures where the tough looks don’t fall as often, and the rest of Riley’s game, or lack thereof, is put under the microscope more than it has before.
Jam: I love Will Riley’s combo of size, shot-making, shooting touch, and playmaking upside. However, I’m still joining the list of those holding off on jumping on board the Riley train for now. There are significant concerns around his thin frame, shot selection, and defensive capabilities that he’ll need to answer first.
Nick: I was all in on Aday Mara heading into last season. This season, I’m struggling to not go all the way in the other direction. His size and passing gifts are real enough for me to hold onto a sliver of hope, but he was a mess last season and I’m worried that he’ll be a mess again this year. I’m holding out hope, and I’m willing to buy back in quickly, but I’m more willing to bet that he’ll be a longer-term project than being a 2025 prospect.
Rucker: UCLA freshman Trent Perry for me. I like Perry and the tools, but I’m just not sure I’m quite there on the idea of him being a one-and-done prospect. Perry has a good foundation in what you’re looking for in a young guard. He’s much stockier than his listed weight might suggest, and he can be a composure out there on the floor. But I think we see a lot of young guards take some time to find their groove. Perry is going to have to be a pretty standout shooter out of the gate to make some serious noise for this draft class. It could happen, but I’m just seeing a potential sophomore leap candidate here.
Corey: I think that Kylan Boswell is a very good college basketball player but I’m not sure he’s a very good NBA prospect. Heading into his junior season Boswell is still just nineteen years old, which does bode well for having a bit more runway to make a leap than your typical junior, but as a sub 6’3” guard, I just don’t see the scoring efficiency and dynamic physical tools that shorter guards need to play with to succeed at the next level.
4. The shiny new thing is always the most enticing to go after, but there is always a ton of value in older prospects. Based on their previous college seasons, which returning player are you most excited to watch and has the best NBA potential?
Austin: Indiana’s Mackenzie Mgbako had a pretty inefficient freshman year overall, but he straightened himself at times, and I’m excited to see how a summer of development treats him. He’s a well-coordinated athlete who has the potential to provide real versatility on defense, and if we see a more mature, disciplined player in Mgbako this year, he might be a mid-first round pick.
Metcalf: Mackenzie Mgbako started to figure some things out at the end of the season. It’s always tough when guys are billed as shooters and then struggle to knock down shots. Mgbako has good positional size, and if he can take a step forward defensively, with his offensive creation, and shoot it like he did in the past, he could be in for a very fun season.
Rowan: He might not have been the flashiest player last year, but Kwame Evans’s choice to return to Oregon could pay major dividends for him and the Ducks this year. With a clear offensive first option in Jackson Shelstad, Evans will be an efficient play-finisher on offense while breaking down bent defenses with his passing chops. While his shooting is still coming along, there’s not much on the defensive end that Evans can’t do. He’s a terror in the passing lanes, contests, and seals off the rim well and is one of the more mobile big men his size. Another year of development should put Evans comfortably into first-round conversations and be the first returner off the board.
Jam: I thought Myles Colvin could have made a real splash for Purdue last season, but the consistent opportunity to do so just didn’t materialize (8.6 minutes per game across 31 games). He appears to be in line for a significant jump in minutes and build off a freshman campaign highlighted by terrific two-way wing flashes and legit three-point shooting (41.4% from three on 58 attempts). I’m excited to see Colvin handle more usage and emerge as a sophomore.
Nick: I adored the flashes I saw from Kwame Evans Jr. last season, and I’m looking forward to seeing what he has in store for Year Two. He’s already an exceptional defensive playmaker and a solid connecting offensive piece—if he can take a step forward as a jump shooter, he’ll be a clear lottery pick; given that he shot 80% from the free-throw line last year, there’s reason to believe that he has the touch to at least be an adequate floor spacer.
Rucker: Kanaan Carlyle is a name that is at the top of my list this year when it comes to returners I’m keeping an eye on. Carlyle spent last year at Stanford and was putting together some impressive performances throughout the year as a freshman. During a seven-game span last year, Carlyle averaged 18.9 points per game while shooting 50% from three on 4.9 attempts per game. After cooling off a bit to end the year, Carlyle decided to transfer to Indiana for the upcoming season. He’s going to be a name to watch closely, as the 6’3” sophomore can light it up in the scoring column. If the rest of the game takes a leap, Carlyle could make some noise again in NBA circles.
Corey: I’m most excited to see if Myles Colvin earns the minutes to play his way into the draft convo this season. Colvin is a silky smooth two guard with a beautiful jumper and some bounce. I dig Colvin’s ability to both create his own shot and play off the ball and serve as a genuine floor spacer. Purdue is in a bit of a transition period moving on from Zach Edey, but Colvin can help the Boilermakers Wade their way into a new era as a terrific backcourt mate to Braden Smith.
5. Whether it’s Anthony Edwards dropping 37 points against Michigan State, or Austin Rivers ripping the heart out of UNC fans, or De’Aaron Fox vs. Lonzo Ball, fans are provided with mesmerizing matchups and performances every season. Which matchup, whether team vs. team, player vs. player, or player vs. team, are you most looking forward to watching?
Austin: Give me Ohio State at Maryland on December 4th. Let’s see how the two best centers in this conference (OSU’s Aaron Bradshaw and Maryland’s Derik Queen) match up.
Metcalf: Rutgers vs Oregon on February 16th. Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper matched up against Jackson Shelstad and Kwame Evans—sign me up. This should be a very good test to see how Bailey matches up against a big-time defender with NBA size with Evans. It should be a fun one.
Rowan: It’s tempting to choose a Rutgers game, given their star freshman duo, but I’ll go a bit off the beaten path for my pick. Illinois hasn’t played USC since 2012, but there’s no better time to get a matchup between these two teams. Eric Musselman rebuilt the Trojans from scratch this season, snagging some of my favorite transfers like Saint Thomas, Wesley Yates III, and Kevin Patton Jr. The Fighting Illini also rebuilt their roster, bringing in Kasparas Jakucionis, Will Riley, Kylan Boswell, Carey Booth, and a handful of others. I don’t know who will start or even play from these deep rosters, but I trust that I’ll be on the couch watching this one.
Jam: Rutgers at Maryland on February 9th. This game could feature two Top 3 picks (Bailey and Harper) battling a lottery pick in Maryland’s Derik Queen. Keep an eye out for additional Terp prospects like Rodney Rice, Deshawn Harris-Smith, Tafara Gapare, and Ja’Kobi Gillespie in this one as well.
Nick: I’m with Jam here; it’s Rutgers-Maryland for me. I’m looking forward to seeing the Rutgers stars face off against one of my favorite prospects to watch in the class in Derik Queen.
Rucker: Rutgers vs. Illinois on February 5th. Prospects galore. There’s a world in which that game features three players who could go in the Top 5. Yeah. Insane. Also, don’t you love predictions like that in October?
Corey: Rutgers has been one of my home scouting locations over the years so I’m always amped to see some live hoops in Piscataway. I can’t wait for my Lithuanian brethren Kasaparas Jakucionis and the Illini to come to Jersey to line up across from the dynamic duo of Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey.