2024-25 Youth Movement NBA Junior Preview
Our own Nathan Grubel wraps up his 2024-25 Youth Movement NBA preview series with a look at top and under-the-radar juniors, including Paolo Banchero, Jalen Williams, and more.
We’re ALMOST there!!
By this time next week, I’ll have actual games to discuss regarding those in the Youth Movement NBA database.
For now, it’s time to finish up the 2024-25 preview series with the junior class in the NBA.
There’s plenty of promise from the 2022 draft, a quietly strong class of both star-level players and those who will play key roles on teams for years to come.
But which players have taken meaningful steps forward? And who are some guys who have yet to make their full mark on the league?
There’s plenty in both camps, and some players who did get their chance to “arrive” last season and could be due for more minutes and opportunities within the rotation.
Enough to talk about now, but I’m the most excited to chronicle this class over the course of the year for No Ceilings.
The main reason is that this will be the lifeblood of the Youth Movement NBA mission. What players from the 2022 draft class have become starter-level players or the equivalent in terms of minutes? Which haven’t lived up to expectations? And most importantly: can we answer the question of WHY in both categories?
So many lessons and teaching moments to unpack, a number of which we will discover together over the lifespan of Youth Movement NBA. I promised that this will be something in which we as a basketball community grow together through, and I meant it.
Let’s finish up the preview series now, starting with one of the top players in his class who could see a significant rise in both his profile and his team’s overall success!
* Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference, Synergy Sports, Dunks and Threes, and Oddsshark*
Paolo Banchero: Darkhorse MVP Candidate?
At some point, what’s the fun in creating content if you don’t get a little aggressive with the analysis, right?
Paolo Banchero as a dark horse MVP candidate is about as aggressive as it gets. Truthfully, someone may read that question and immediately turn to another publication because of how crazy it sounds out loud.
But there could be a legitimate argument here, and it’s one worth diving into—especially if you’re a sports bettor who enjoys a fun longshot wager here and there.
Across most US sportsbooks, you can find Banchero’s odds to win MVP anywhere from +12000 to +15000. For those who don’t frequently wager, this would mean that the payout on such a bet would be 120:1 all the way to 150:1, depending on where your number falls in that range.
Sounds like quite the risky wager right? It makes me ponder a few questions. Why are the odds that long on a player like Banchero? Have other players in his position from a career perspective won the award before? And what did those seasons look like for those players and their respective teams?
In NBA history, five players have won the NBA’s MVP Award in their third season in the league.
That collective would happen to be:
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Milwaukee Bucks (1972)
Dave Cowens, Boston Celtics (1973)
Bob McAdoo, Buffalo Braves (1975)
Moses Malone, Houston Rockets (1979)
Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls (2011)
Essentially, four of the five winners achieved this feat in the 1970’s leaving Derrick Rose as the lone winner over the last 45 years since Moses Malone.
Some average numbers to put into perspective the types of seasons they had individually:
Average PPG: 27.9
Average RPG: 13.7
Average APG: 4.1
Average TS%: 56.1%
By individual counting stats, all five players had seasons that statistically separated themselves from the pack—not just in terms of efficiency but volume. All featured scorers who found other ways to contribute and be effective on the floor.
Now compare Paolo Banchero’s season last year to where these winners finished in the same categories:
21.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 4.6 APG, 54.6 TS%
Not too far off from those other candidates correct? It’s one thing for a well-seasoned vet to reach those marks at a later point in their career en route to an All-Star berth or greater, but for Banchero to have hit those numbers in just his second NBA season is what puts him on a trajectory to do incredible things in his career.
Now let’s take a look at the records of those teams to set a benchmark of how well each finished in the league:
1971-72 Milwaukee Bucks: 63-19
1972-73 Boston Celtics: 68-14
1974-75 Buffalo Braves: 49-33
1978-79 Houston Rockets: 47-35
2010-11 Chicago Bulls: 62-20
Average Wins: 58
That’s quite the bar for any NBA team to hit, especially when there are a number of strong contenders to get there over Banchero’s Orlando Magic (namely the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder).
Where Banchero would have some help is in the narrative behind such a remarkable season IF the Magic were to pull it off.
Winning 58-60 games would assuredly put this team in position for one of the top seeds, if not the top seed, in the Eastern Conference. Banchero’s numbers would have to be in the ranges of those prior winners before him.
Banchero’s narrative could be that as it stands, there isn’t much overwhelming star power around him to take away from the type of high-usage role that could compound into awards consideration.
Franz Wagner just signed a maximum rookie extension this past offseason, and he’s no slouch on the offensive side of the ball. A legitimate secondary option, Wagner has some strides to still take as a perimeter scorer and shooter. But nonetheless, he’s the type of bigger forward who can handle the ball, make decisions, and also play the type of defense that can switch and cover a lot of ground to support his teammates.
Looking at the rest of the roster, there are complementary pieces and role players in place to support the case of having one of the league’s top defensive units. Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter, Jonathan Isaac, and newly-added Kentavious Caldwell-Pope all take locking down their positions and playing help defense very seriously.
Throw in offensive support off the bench like Cole Anthony, Anthony Black, Jett Howard, and Mo Wagner, and there are some interesting lineup combinations to be found well past the obvious starting unit.
Depth, defense, and improved floor spacing should catapult the Magic into the conversation for a top six seed in the East. If the shooting around Banchero takes a step forward both in terms of attempts and makes to a league average or slightly better level, then that conversation could shift to top four, not just among the best six.
I get it—the East is top heavy with the Philadelphia 76ers, Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, Milwaukee Bucks, and Indiana Pacers. But crazier things have happened than a young team with a budding superstar taking a massive leap forward.
I’m not saying all of this to tell someone to think about putting money on something that’s happened only five other times in NBA history. Nor am I going to pick Banchero as my MVP in the preseason. Rather, I’m building a coherent case for Banchero’s promising short-term future to prepare readers and enthusiasts for the type of breakout that’s right around the corner.
Some would argue that he rated near the bottom quarter of the league in true shooting, and didn’t separate himself nearly enough in terms of advanced metrics to make the type of leap I’m pondering on paper here.
But what if Banchero throws up an improved stat line in relation to his talent along the lines of 25 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 5 APG, and closes in on that 58% true shooting mark while the Magic go on to shatter expectations and win 57-58 games in a competitive Eastern Conference?
To that, I would say few players at 6’10” with his strength can handle the ball like a guard, make plays for others on the move, and score over and through nearly any one-on-one matchup across the league. Banchero is a special, special offensive talent who even improved as a secondary rim protector and backline defender last year.
I have zero doubts about the type of offensive flamethrower Banchero has proven he’s on his way to becoming. Taking steps forward as a three-point shooter, both in terms of attempts and makes, and continuing defensive improvement next to some of the best personnel on that side of the ball in the league would be the icing on the cake.
The Magic are deep, talented, and hungry to win a lot of games this upcoming season. And Banchero might just be in position to capitalize the most in terms of accolades if he can continue to build on such a promising young career.
Jalen Williams: From Mid-Major Star to NBA Star
Having made sure I got your attention in the last section of this preview, let’s move to some other talking points that don’t require as much imagination.
Jalen Williams has already seen his star shine brighter than some may have ever anticipated before he was drafted.
For those who aren’t as familiar, Williams played three seasons of college ball at Santa Clara in the WCC. After his first two years were fairly forgettable from a prospect standpoint statistically, Williams burst onto the scene in a big way as a junior.
Talented scouts were singing his praises behind the scenes before 2021-22, but once he was finished with what would be his last year in school, Williams left no doubts on the table that he was in consideration for a first-round pick.
In all, Williams averaged 18.0 PPG, 4.4 RPG, and 4.2 APG. A well-rounded stat line with efficient marks to boot, as he put up a slash line of 51.3/39.6/80.9 with enough volume to support the fact that he could grow into more in the NBA.
The Oklahoma City Thunder ended up getting Williams in the lottery of the 2022 draft, and it will go down as one of the better lottery tandems in league history as Chet Holmgren was taken with the second overall pick.
Able to handle the ball, play out of pick-and-roll, slash to the basket, and hit tough shots off the bounce, there were little weaknesses in his offensive game outside of some questions regarding his finishing in traffic and nitpicks with the number of threes attempted in college.
During his junior season, Williams only attempted 5.2 threes per 100 possessions. Even in the league, Williams attempted that very same number during his sophomore campaign.
While his shot diet is far from just threes and layups, Williams has maintained and even improved his efficiency as a wing scorer. He hunts for open looks both with and without the ball, and rarely settles for a large number of poor shots within any specific game.
Williams can create looks for himself as a ball-handler but is also adept at cutting to the basket and playing off others in transition. Williams isn’t the type of player who is concerned about how many chances he has to create chaos at the top of the key. Williams takes his shots any way he can get them, and is always hungry to do whatever it takes to get the team a win.
He rebounds aggressively on both ends, finds the open man, and has become a versatile defensive ace due to his impressive 7’2” wingspan and strong build. Williams has scaled up and down the lineup during his short time with the Thunder, playing lead guard on one series of possessions and then transitioning to an off-ball forward the next.
It’s easy to write off more experienced players in college who don’t easily pass the eye test, even if the counting numbers jump off the page. But Williams is a prime example of taking the time to do your due diligence as a scout. Watch the tape, check in on every conference at the mid-major and low-major levels, and grade prospects accordingly based on what they CAN do, rather than nitpicking and trying to build negative cases around what doesn’t seem like an obvious strength.
Now in position to continue taking steps forward on arguably the most talented team in the NBA, Williams has the scoring talent to perform well as a second option, but also is willing to take a back seat and let others shine in their roles.
And when it’s his time to rise up and deliver, Williams has all the tools and talent to do so. He already ranked in the 95th percentile in terms of Estimated Plus-Minus per Dunks and Threes, and the 83rd percentile in terms of Total Offense per Synergy Sports, so there’s little reason for me to doubt that Williams won’t be an All-Star this coming season even in a loaded Western Conference.
He’s that good, and only in position to get that much better.
Top Junior Check-Ins
Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings
Having put up the best shooting season from range in NBA rookie history, Keegan Murray didn’t slow down from distance in his sophomore season.
Even though he didn’t take an overwhelming leap forward, Murray still had a solid season as a big wing shooter, hitting 35.8% on 9.6 three-point attempts per 100 possessions.
Overall, Murray managed to improve in some key areas for his long-term development, including rebounding, assist, steal, and block rates.
Becoming a more dependable scorer at volume similar to the role he played at Iowa may not have to be in the cards for him to contribute toward the success of the Sacramento Kings, given how much offensive firepower is already on the team. But helping to create and end more possessions is just as effective as being on the floor solely to make shots.
Murray is the type of wing who can make everyone’s lives around him easier. Now that the Kings have De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, AND DeMar DeRozan to drive and kick out from the paint, Murray should see an uptick in attempts and has proven he’s a reliable scorer when left open. Given that he made 42.2% of his unguarded catch-and-shoot looks last season, there’s even more reason to think those types of shots will keep coming his way given the attention everywhere else.
Finding his rhythm as an on-ball defender, defensive playmaker in passing lanes,and as a sound decision-maker who can keep the ball moving within a high-tempo offense are all areas I’ll be watching to keep seeing improvements. I know Murray can shoot, but becoming an even more well-rounded player is well within his grasp.
Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers
Did any other player put himself on the map in the playoffs more than Andrew Nembhard did in the Eastern Conference Semifinals and Finals?
Last year in the playoffs, Nembhard averaged 14.9 PPG, 5.5 APG, and 3.3 RPG on 56.0/483/76.9 shooting splits. For ANY player, those are absurdly efficient numbers.
Many players are not able to live up to expectations in the playoffs and fold under pressure. Efficiencies dip, and opportunities erode as a team gets closer to the NBA Finals.
Nembhard didn’t shy away from anything, however. In fact, he only got BETTER from series to series.
Already on the radar of sharp evaluators, Nembhard has played a key role for the Indiana Pacers for two seasons now as a secondary guard and reliable perimeter defender.
While he may have bit off a bit more he could chew defensively in the playoffs trying to guard the other teams’ best plus-sized wing options, Nembhard was still effective on that end while stepping up as a key isolation shot maker offensively.
Between pulling up from the mid-range, hitting spot-up threes, and converting tough looks at the basket, Nembhard’s success was defined as three-level scoring capability. It’s one thing to consider a player a three-level scorer, but to watch someone actually prove it on the biggest stages is an entirely different animal.
Now having earned an extension from Indiana, Nembhard should continue to slot right in as the team’s starting guard next to Tyrese Haliburton.
He’s the perfect complementary backcourt mate alongside someone like Haliburton as an efficient combo who can run pick-and-rolls, finish plays, and cover ground defensively that Hali can’t.
Shaedon Sharpe, Portland Trail Blazers
There are some massive fans of Shaedon Sharpe’s game across the NBA, and for good reason.
The third-year wing will be looking to capitalize on new opportunities coming off a season that was injury-riddled.
Still so young, Sharpe’s speed and verticality put him in a category of elite athletes in the league. Given that he’s become more comfortable handling the ball and creating for himself and others in tight windows, Sharpe now needs to focus on hunting for higher-quality opportunites, not just creating to prove he can capitalize on one-on-one looks.
His efficiency across the board took a hit in the time he played during his sophomore year. With more volume came a signficant regression in field goal percentage, a slight dip below league average from distance, and more turnovers, Sharpe still has a ways to go in terms of establishing himself as a top-shelf primary or secondary offensive option.
If Sharpe can become a more cognicent offensive player, however, the ceiling catapults sky high for a 6’6” wing who can dunk over anyone.
Locking back in defensively, particularly away from the ball, and getting more comfortable embracing a role off the ball offensively could help get him back on track and trending upward. There’s still so much promise in what his game could provide to the Portland Trail Blazers during a rocky rebuild. I’ll be curious to see how he plays off of Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons with another year under his belt.
Look for the addition of Deni Avdija to also help alleviate some volume concerns, as he also can get the ball to Sharpe in spots that best suit his strengths.
Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets
Jabari Smith didn’t quite break out in the way that his sophomore Summer League play might’ve suggested, but that doesn’t mean he had a poor second season.
In fact, he was actually able to establish a baseline for his production moving forward.
Smith proved more as a reliable spot-up shooter in his second season, continued to fight and contribute on the glass, and showed some improvements as a defensive weapon for the Rockets.
While his metrics don’t necessarily jump off the page, I watched enough games where Smith took on aggressive matchups defensively and either held his own or put himself and his team in position to make a play on the ball.
And when he had it going from a shot making standpoint, it was easy to remember why he was such a highly regarded draft prospect out of Auburn.
Even though there’s a two-way case to be made for Smith, there’s still plenty of room to grow as a dribble pull-up scorer and passer offensively. Finding ways to improve as a primary rim protector could allow Houston to experiment with more lineups featuring Smith at the center spot.
There are avenues of development for Smith to walk down this season and beyond, but I feel very comfortable with his evaluation as one of the more underrated young forwards in the league.
Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
It’s easy to forget that Jalen Duren came into the NBA as one of its youngest players sometimes when you look at how he carries himself on the floor.
Physically gifted as a big man, few centers can run further and jump higher than Duren. His combination of abilities to vertically space and catch lobs, protect the rim, and feast on the glass gives him a reliable role as a rim-running big who actually fits that definition to a tee.
Far from a plodder on the court, Duren has the tools to produce in a big way for the Detroit Pistons. And in some regards, he has. He’s on pace to develop into the best glass cleaner the franchise has seen since Andre Drummond (he likely already is). He’s the type of finisher who can only further benefit from extended reps with dynamic guards like Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey.
I have few concerns about Duren’s offensive role as a finisher and second-chance machine. He’s already established himself enough in those areas.
Where there’s a ton of opportunity for Duren to see continued growth is in his underrated passing game.
As a short-roll playmaker and passer out of double teams, Duren has shown flashes of being another cog that can make the Pistons’ offense go. I’m very interested to see how those flashes can manifest themselves more often.
Defensively, Duren has not proven he can become more than a drop big in different pick-and-roll coverages, and that’s ok. Not every big has the ability to switch across matchups like a Bam Adebayo. But being more attentive away from the basketball is what I want to see most from Duren on defense.
If his motor runs hot every game he plays, Duren has the natural talent to put up some impressive box scores. Translating that productioin into wins is what he and the other young members of the Pistons core will be figuring out this year.
Tari Eason, Houston Rockets
I’ve admitted before that I felt I missed on Tari Eason during the draft process.
The questions I had about him as a two-way forward haven’t fully been answered, but it certainly led me to re-evaluate my process in terms of better valuing production, especially to the level of what Eason did on a per-minute basis at LSU.
Now, having come into the NBA in a similar capacity for the Houston Rockets, Eason has continued to put together some eye-popping highlights and moments where one should absolutely question if he could produce in a starting role elsewhere in the league.
That answer is a resounding yes, and is likely a target on other team’s boards of players they’d hope to one day trade for if an opportunity presented itself.
Sure, there are absolutely times I watch Eason and can’t figure out why he makes some of the decisions he does. But as a riverboat gambler defensively and absolute workhorse on offense creating extra possesions on the glass, Eason just generates easy offense both in the halfcourt and in transition.
Having players do that with the size, strength, athleticism he possesses shouldn’t be understated. The NBA as a whole has moved to more positionless basketball, and Eason embodies that style of play given how he can handle the ball, rip off drives, and create for others in the process.
So long as he can stay healthy, Eason should have an interesting season ahead of him for the Rockets.
Mark Williams, Charlotte Hornets
Having lost parts of two seasons to injuries or time spent in the G League, Mark Williams hasn’t quite been able to deliver on his lottery-level promise with the Charlotte Hornets as the future center of the organization.
In the minutes he’s been able to play, though, Williams has produced when called upon.
Per 36 minutes, Williams averaged 17 PPG and 13 RPG last season as a double-double machine. An athletic 7’2” center who can rebound, block shots, and finish well above the rim, Williams has a defined role on the court with what he already does well.
Where I’ll be excited to see his continued development is in what he can do away from the basket, both operating in dribble handoffs with playmakers like LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller, as well as spacing the floor above the break as a three-point shooter.
Williams was able to shoot the ball from distance in the G League, and while he hasn’t quite gotten the chance to show off some shooting chops in the NBA, that part of his game could unlock some exciting elements for the Hornets’ offense.
More space for Ball and Miller to drive only creates more kickout opportunities for a fast-paced offense like Charlotte—not to mention Miles Bridges can also benefit from an open lane to finish with ferocity.
Staying on the court with a clean bill of health is the biggest priority for Williams in his third season, but with continued growth offensively he should continue to develop as one of the more promising young bigs in the association.
Christian Braun, Denver Nuggets
After a surprising rookie campaign in which he found himself playing key minutes in the NBA Finals, Christian Braun solidified his spot in the Denber rotation last season.
As a two-way wing, Braun is primarily on the floor for his defensive intensity and competitiveness. Braun doesn’t back down from anyone, and it shows in his play. From denying opponents the ball, to walling off drivers, and even hitting the glass for defensive rebounds, Braun is as nasty of a perimeter defender as they come.
Offensively, he’s been a tertiary creator similar to the type of role he played in college at Kansas, and has scored off the ball too. If he ever figures out how to shoot above league average from deep, his game takes a step forward in a massive way.
For now, Braun is expected to slot into the starting lineup after the departure of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and deliver on his defensive promise. I don’t love the spacing with Braun on the floor for extended minutes, but at least he’s a timely cutter who can redirect the ball and keep things moving.
Even despite some of his limitations as a scorer/shooter, Braun is one of my favorite players to watch across the league. Few have as much swagger defensively as he does.
Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons
I can’t say there was much noticeable improvement in Jaden Ivey from his rookie to sophomore season, but in fairness to him he didn’t exactly have a ton of room to spread his wings offensively under the coaching of Monty Williams.
Now that JB Bickerstaff is in the mix as head coach, perhaps we see more of Ivey as a breakout type of player offensively. During the preseason, he’s been off to a scorching hot start from an efficiency standpoint, and seems to have made some excellent changes to quicken his release mechanics making him a more confident shooter from distance.
That’s always been a massive question mark with Ivey. Even more so than his spot-up shooting from deep, could Ivey become the type of pull-up scorer to make defenses think twice if he’s going to change gears and stop on a dime in open space to knock down a jumper? He’s looking like more of a threat to capitalize on those opportunities, which should help him mix and match his drives and still put plenty of pressure on the rim to support on-ball perimeter scorers like Cade Cunningham and Tobias Harris.
As he’s developed physically, there should be improvements coming defensively in his favor as well. He’s always had length that has helped him rotate and play passing lanes in coverages to force steals. But improved screen navigation and the ability to fight and press up on opposing ball handlers to push them off spots should provide much needed help at the point of attack defensively for Detroit.
I still believe there’s plenty more for Ivey to provide on both sides of the ball, and hopefully changes in the coaching staff and front office can help him capitalize on expanded growth and role within the team.
Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio Spurs
This isn’t the first time I’ve said this (and won’t be the last), but some players you REALLY have to dig into the tape in order to appreciate their impact.
Jeremy Sochan isn’t someone who will pop in a ton of box score-related studies, but his early career has been very interesting to watch with the San Antonio Spurs.
Having been a starter from essentially the beginning with Coach Pop, it’s not every day you see a rookie get that kind of role with a veteran coach who believes in experience.
That’s because Sochan’s utility as a defender was the type of skill set needed to break that mold for Pop’s usual starting lineups. Sochan’s mobility, length, and motor help him guard multiple positions on the floor, scaling both up and down defensively. Given that the Spurs have struggled on that side of the ball in the post-Kawhi Leonard and Tim Duncan era, it helped to have a support system like Sochan in place to at least bother the other teams’ best scorers.
Now, with the Tower of Terror in the middle in Victor Wembanyama, Sochan gets to play even more of a free safety role as someone who can capitalize on mistakes made by opposing players who think twice (and even three times) about challenging Wemby in the lane.
Sochan has great vision to play passing lanes and time key plays on the ball. His transition offense in terms of handling, finishing, and dishing helps to generate easy points for a team that hasn’t been able to create clean offense in the halfcourt for years.
And even though “Point Sochan” didn’t quite work out last year, I wasn’t one to argue with him getting the opportunity to start his second season. Those reps allowed him to explore the studio space as an on-ball scorer, which has manifested some already in this preseason.
A consistent rebounder, defender, and team player, Sochan does a little bit of everything to help his team succeed. Still so incredibly young, let’s see if the jack-of-all trades can develop even more reliable offensive skills.
Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
Arguably the most fascinating player to monitor in the entire junior class, Bennedict Mathurin is in one heck of a spot with the Indiana Pacers.
Drafted to develop into a future scoring standout for Indiana, the Pacers ended up finding success without him on the floor as he spent most of last season sidelined due to injury. Andrew Nembhard stepped up in a big way, Tyrese Haliburton put up an All-NBA level offensive season, Aaron Nesmith emerged as one of the better “3-and-D” wings in the league, and the team traded for another All-NBA caliber player in Pascal Siakam.
Simply put, there are enough guys with the re-signing of Obi Toppin to put the ball in the basket, meaning Mathurin’s developments in other areas of the game become more crucial for his future success with the Pacers.
Can Mathurin take steps forward as a wing defender? Is his off-ball offensive game ready to see an uptick in efficiency in terms of catch-and-shoot looks? Can he steady his handle to get downhill more often like he did during his rookie year, draw fouls, and pass out of collapsed defensive situations?
We know Mathurin can put the ball in the basket. But the Pacers have a lot of offensive firepower with even more in the wings as Ben Sheppard and Jarace Walker look to get more minutes within the rotation. Is Mathurin a trade chip in a move to consolidate and solidify the Pacers as contenders in the East? Or does he remind Indiana of how talented he is and regain his rightful role within the team’s offensive hierarchy?
Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz
Speaking of potential trade chips, it appears from multiple sources that Walker Kessler has been on the block for the Utah Jazz for quite a few months now.
It’s generally not a great sign when a player finds himself in Summer League heading into a third season after not playing at all going into his sophomore campaign. Kessler drifted to the bench during his second season in favor of John Collins starting at the center spot.
The writing has been on the wall that Kessler may not be a long-term answer for the Jazz, and honestly, I’m struggling to figure out why.
He was an extra piece in the Rudy Gobert trade who probably wasn’t expected to have the type of rookie year that he did, in which he finished third in Rookie of the Year voting.
But he was one of the NBA’s best shot blockers in that season, with high efficiency as a finisher and rebounder.
Kessler isn’t the most versatile defensive big man, but the way in which he can swallow up drivers in drop coverage isn’t something every big man can do quite as well as he can.
There’s value in Kessler as a long-term play, reminiscent of Brook Lopez if he can figure out how to space the floor, even if it’s not in Utah. Whether he stays with the Jazz or is moved at some point this season, there’s still room for him to improve and re-establish himself with the other young, emerging bigs across the NBA.
The “We’ve Arrived” Juniors
Keon Ellis, Sacramento Kings
Truthfully, I didn’t expect Keon Ellis to break out in the NBA in the ways he has.
Having now become a full-time starter for the Sacramento Kings, Ellis paid his G League dues and put in the work to improve in all facets of his game.
A “Switchblade” guard as coined by Chuck over at Chucking Darts, Ellis has the type of two-way game in the backcourt to wreak havoc, create turnovers, and play the brand of offense that every NBA team loves: generate paint touches on a whim and bomb threes at an efficient rate.
I’m ready to see Ellis take on more difficult matchups on the perimeter next to De’Aaron Fox and track how well he can continue to scale as an effective scorer with more volume. But earning a starting role in the league is far from easy, and it’s worth monitoring this archetype of player moving forward.
Nikola Jovic, Miami Heat
Nikola Jovic fills a massive area of need for the Miami Heat: a young player with size, athleticism, and the fearlessness to jack up shots from deep.
Kevin Love has played a stretch-forward role for Miami the last few seasons, but he no longer possesses the type of starter upside that Jovic does. Able to move his feet well enough to bother different matchups defensively while having the shooting touch from deep to keep defenses honest and space around the Jimmy Butler or Tyler Herro pick-and-rolls with Bam Adebayo, Jovic’s youth and ability have helped to balance out an older roster and breathe life into the offense.
Head coach Erik Spoelstra has always made the most with what he’s had, but getting a prospect who at one point was considered a lottery talent had to have put a smile on his face snagging him near the end of the first round.
With more volume and opportunity, Jovic should continue to produce in Miami and bring stability to the power forward position.
Vince Williams Jr., Memphis Grizzlies
Long time No Ceilings favorite Vince Williams Jr. has burst onto the scene in the NBA, becoming a valued rotational asset for the Memphis Grizzlies due to his growth not only on defense, but as a shooter.
Last season, Williams shot 35% from deep on four attempts per, which is exactly the type of threat needed to open up driving lanes for others. Having the ability to also find guys on the move, leak out in transition, and cover multiple positions defensively only adds to how valuable he is as a true two-way wing.
Those touches with him handling and finding guys from a playmaking perspective are what I want to monitor more of in the league. Those possessions were there on tape in college for Williams, but the fact he’s been able to make a difference for the Grizzlies in that regard is a fascinating wrinkle in his development.
It’s one thing to be able to space from the corners and hold your own defensively with positional size/length. Those two things will take you very, very far in the NBA and make you a lot of money. But when you fall into the dribble/pass/shoot archetype on the wing? That skill set opens a new set of doors for any young player.
Jaylin Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
While he’s not going to pop out of box scores like some other players mentioned in this class, Jaylin Williams’s impact can absolutely be felt off the bench on the tape.
A backup big who offers some mobility in different defensive coverages, Williams is starting to become a more capable defender past what he’s been known for: drawing an obscene amount of charges dating back to his days at Arkansas.
Able to help block shots and body up other post-up big men, Williams is solid enough to earn minutes on that side of the ball. Offensively, he’s still working on spacing the floor and attacking matchups off the dribble who come out too far respecting his jump shot.
The Oklahoma City Thunder haven’t had a ton of frontcourt support in recent years, so his ability to come right out of college and play positive minutes was certainly beneficial to the team. Now, with Chet Holmgren firmly in the mix along with new signee Isaiah Hartenstein, it will be interesting to see what happens to all of Williams’ minutes moving forward.
If he becomes someone who is available in trade, it might not be the worst of ideas for a teama in need of a big man to look at evaluating his case for the position.
Jaden Hardy, Dallas Mavericks
Could we have a Jaden Hardy breakout on our hands?
The third-year guard has shown flashes for the Dallas Mavericks in the past, but he played some really solid minutes for Dallas during last year’s extended playoff run and has carried that confidence over to the preseason.
Hardy has always been a crafty scoring guard, but he’s starting to put together more of his handle and passing ability on the move. While he still needs to work on getting downhill and drawing more fouls, these developments help to round out his scoring arsenal past spot-up shooting.
One way for Hardy to get minutes in Dallas is to moonlight as a backup point guard in spots where both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving need rest. That’s the type of role that Dallas expects Hardy to take hold of, and having nine assists the other night in a game against the Memphis Grizzlies is a nice start to build off of to prove he’s capable of that type of role.
Jabari Walker, Portland Trail Blazers
The Portland Trail Blazers have only added to the frontcourt in recent years, but that didn’t stop Jabari Walker from getting starting opportunities during his second season.
Toumani Camara’s emergence didn’t help his case as the first young forward off the bench to start this year, but I’ve still been impressed with how he’s grown since his days at Colorado.
There were some moments of shooting prowess and face-up scoring punch during his days in Boulder, but Walker has become much more confident in his perimeter game in the NBA. Couple that confidence with where he already was as a mismatch post-up scorer and rebounder, and there’s some real value to be found in Walker’s game.
A versatile defender who can box out opposing matchups, rotate, and help protect the rim with his length, Walker has a role in the league moving forward, whether it’s in Portland or somewhere else. Not many young players have his skill set, and if I were in charge of a team, he’d be on a list somewhere in terms of young talents to keep an eye on.
Max Christie, Los Angeles Lakers
Fresh off a four-year, $32 million extension, Max Christie will be looked to in terms of filling an offensive void for the Los Angeles Lakers.
It’s no secret the Lakers weren’t the most efficient offensive team last season, nor did they attempt threes at a rate that would make new head coach JJ Redick comfortable about the direction of the squad on that side of the ball.
That’s where a player like Christie can come in, who is very comfortable with hunting his own shot from the corners, working off handoffs, or catching on the move coming off screens. He’s the type of off-ball player who doesn’t take too much away from those who deserve the lion’s share of playmaking reps, while making their lives easier in turn.
Not only can he knock down open shots, but Christie has the tools to step up defensively as well. He moves his feet well on the perimeter, and anticipates ball and player movement to deny and wall off opposing opportunities. Active on that end, Christie’s defensive chops date back to his days at Michigan State where his tape popped and helped him get drafted despite mixed results offensively from an efficiency standpoint.
I’m not only intrigued by Christie’s willingness to cut towards the basket and finish through contact, but he’s shown signs in Summer League and in the preseason of being able to create some of his own offense off the dribble. A 6’6” wing with length who can shoot over defenders, having the ability to generate his own looks around the free throw line and even stepping back behind the arc could really propel him forward in the Lakers’ rotation.
It will be interesting to see if some more of his offense can skew in the direction of what he was able to manufacture vs. everything being created for him.
Scotty Pippen Jr., Memphis Grizzlies
Veteran draft analysts likely remember making a case for Scotty Pippen Jr. as a backup point guard at some point during the 2022 draft cycle.
For those who advocated on his behalf, pat yourselves on the back, as Pippen Jr. just got a guaranteed contract from the Memphis Grizzlies for the last roster spot.
And honestly, it’s well deserved. Pippen Jr. held his own both scoring and distributing at different points last season on the Hospital Grizzlies, and during his time in the G League with the Memphis Hustle he’s also produced to great lengths on efficient splits.
A quick guard in short spaces, Pippen Jr. knows how to get to spots, create angles, and knock down enough pull-up jumpers to force defenders’ hands and pull them further away from the basket so he can get a step and generate paint touches.
Pippen Jr. has the passing chops to not only make reads but push the right buttons and get others involved when the matchups dictate it. It’s one thing to see an open man and move the ball, but it’s another for great point guards to actually recognize where the ball needs to go in order to produce effective scoring.
When Derrick Rose retired, there was no other choice to replace him in the short term but Pippen Jr. and I hope he holds onto this opportunity and continues to develop into one of the better bench options in the league.
Malaki Branham and Julian Champagnie, San Antonio Spurs
Both Malaki Branham and Julian Champagnie saw opportunities last season to step into different lineups and do what they do best: shoot that rock!
While both ended up producing in different ways, Champagnie was the one who started more games because of the fact he at least has the type of frame to hold up a bit better than Branham defensively. Despite having the ability to handle and run pick-and-roll offense, Branham has found himself without significant minutes at times because of how poor he’s been defensively.
Champagnie has improved as an off-the-dribble shot maker for sure, but he’s much more established in who he is and will be as a player. Still a valuable rotational piece for the San Antonio Spurs as the team continues to fill out its bench around Victor Wembanyama and the rest of the starters. Branham has more upside long term, but will he be able to tap into it on this roster?
Chris Paul came to the Spurs this season to help develop Wemby and the others around him. Tre Jones is still on the team for the time being. New draft pick Stephon Castle sees himself as a lead guard and is the favorite to replace Paul in the starting lineup long term. Where does that leave a player like Branham in the pecking order?
If he can become serviceable defensively, Branham has a shot to get minutes as a backup lead guard. Even in a more significant role on another team, he would still have to take major steps forward as a defender to start alongside another backcourt player. I’ll be looking to see where he lands on that side of the ball this year.
Under The Radar Juniors
Dominick Barlow, Atlanta Hawks
I’ve long been a fan of Dominick Barlow’s game, having called him “Baby Nikola Vucevic” on multiple occasions.
Just because he’s no longer with the San Antonio Spurs doesn’t mean his NBA journey is over. Now with the Atlanta Hawks, there’s still a chance he could crack some minutes in that rotation due to the fact none of their bigs can both hold their own on the glass and provide pick-and-pop shooting like Barlow could.
His numbers from deep aren’t anything to write home about at the moment, but he came into the league so young out of Overtime Elite. Having developed more physically and put on the necessary weight to play the center position, Barlow has continued to work on his jumper and has become respectable on long twos.
There’s some value added there in his ability to post smaller players and crash the glass. But if he can get to the point where he’s setting high ball screens and spacing from three, Barlow becomes a very interesting piece for Atlanta or another team that can stick around long-term.
MarJon Beauchamp, Milwaukee Bucks
I had much higher hopes for MarJon Beauchamp coming out of the G League Ignite, primarily because he’s someone who has overcome personal hardships to achieve his dream of playing in the NBA.
And he’s gotten some opportunities to really lock down a rotational spot with the Milwaukee Bucks. I can’t say he’s capitalized much on those chances, but he’s still on the roster in somewhat of a “prove it” year for his NBA candidacy.
A spot-up wing who has also displayed the ability to defend multiple spots on the perimeter, Beauchamp never quite took to developing as a player who can get his own shot after being run off his spots. He can knock down unguarded looks from the corners and wings, but if defenses close out hard on him he hasn’t quite proven he can do what’s required on the next move/read.
If Beauchamp can continue to provide defensive utility while taking steps forward as an offensive player, then he’ll get more chances as an athletic wing. But this is the year to show that he’s been working as hard in the lab as anyone else.
Jake LaRavia, Memphis Grizzlies
Jake LaRavia’s NBA case has always been predicated on not just shooting the rock, but shooting it well on extended volume.
He hasn’t quite proven he’s there in that regard yet, but LaRavia took some steps in that direction last season converting on 34% of 9.5 attempts from three per 100 possessions.
That’s a starting point for where the Memphis Grizzlies would like him to be for sure. But without the ability to finish at a level indicative of his size/build (only 44.2% on twos last year), he REALLY has to shoot it well to provide value.
Defensively, he’s been a mixed bag since his days at Wake Forest, where he was much more effective as a roamer and defensive playmaker. Another year in the weight room should help him fight against more on-ball matchups this season, but again, it’s all going to come back to whether he can be a flamethrower on offense or not.