2024-25 Youth Movement NBA Rookie Preview
Our own Nathan Grubel begins Youth Movement NBA with a look at this season's rookie class, including awards predictions and long-term prospects to monitor.
We’re so close to the 2024-25 NBA season.
After an entire offseason of exciting moves, draft day drama, and plenty of those fun workout reports of every player being in the best shape of their lives, it’s time to get back to work.
For us at No Ceilings, that means balancing evaluating the current NBA landscape with the next group of players to come in the NBA Draft.
Luckily, my coverage here for Youth Movement NBA helps to bridge the gap between the present and the future.
What lessons can we take away from players who are succeeding very early on in their careers? Conversely, why are some struggling to break out? Are they in poor situations to develop? Were certain prospects mis-evaluated? How can we apply those lessons in scouting moving forward?
There’s plenty to be had in those areas, which will be the real “meat and potatoes” of what Youth Movement NBA is all about.
For now, let’s enjoy the preseason festivites and have some fun predicting everyone’s favorite topics in regards to the rookie class: awards!
Figuring out which players are actually going to end up on ballots at the end of the season is much easier said than done. A number of factors can impact a rookie’s performance, nor is an absence from any ballot an indicator of career success.
In order to best determine who could realistically end up in the Rookie of the Year race and land on an All-Rookie squad, let’s take a look at results from the last five years and see if there are some commonalities to be had between nominees.
(Tyler Rucker and Tyler Metcalf conducted a similar exercise this summer on the No Ceilings podcast; I highly suggest giving it a listen as you’re reading my thoughts on the subject!)
Last Five NBA Rookie of the Year Winners
2020: Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies (2nd Overall Pick)
2021: LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets (3rd Overall Pick)
2022: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors (4th Overall Pick)
2023: Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic (1st Overall Pick)
2024: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (1st Overall Pick)
Looking at each winner, there are some pretty distinct commonalities to take away from each starting with archetype/usage within the offense.
It’s no surprise that the Rookie of the Year Award ties heavily to production/opportunity (more on those in a bit), but the core of that premise ties to how much responsibility each player can shoulder as early as possible.
In the players listed, each one of them is either the fulcrum of their respective team’s offense, or have the capabilities to make decisions off the dribble and create opportunities for others.
Ja Morant and LaMelo Ball are outliers in this statistical category compared to the other three, but all five commanded AST% over 17 with positive AST/TO ratios. NBA offenses are about timing and anticipation. There’s very little room for error when trying to execute against the toughest and most athletic defenders in the world.
Morant and Ball are both natural point guards who can not only read the floor but can also deliver touch passes through narrow windows. They command the ball on a string and possess some of the best handles across the NBA.
When it comes to Scottie Barnes, Paolo Banchero, and Victor Wembanyama, all three can take their men off the dribble, draw double teams, and make the next read or score through and over opposing defenders.
All of these points sound elementary to the common observer, but to be able to command usage rates over 25 as rookies (except for Barnes) and deliver positive results is truly the outlier production that warrants consideration for Rookie of the Year.
Speaking more broadly in terms of production, each player not only had the opportunity and runway to produce on bad teams looking for top offensive options, but they also took advantage and stood out amongst their teammates across multiple stats.
Morant led his team in scoring and assists, Banchero led his respective unit in scoring, while Ball led his team in assists. Barnes was fifth on his team in scoring, second in rebounding, third in assists, and second in blocks!
And Wembanyama said hold my beer to everyone else’s accomplishments by leading the San Antonio Spurs in points, rebounds, steals, and blocks while finishing third on the team in assists!
Granted, these are a handful of the best players in the league who were drafted high for a reason, but that’s the type of bar that a Rookie of the Year winner hopes to live up to.
Two more quick points I’d like to make on commonalities, one being positional size. Outside of Morant, each of the other four players came in physically ready to challenge others at their respective positions.
In terms of height and length, nearly all of the last five ROTY winners are considered “plus size” and possess very helpful phsycial tools. Even in Morant’s case, his speed, acceleration, and deceleration are among the best in the business giving him clear gifts to work with.
Lastly, it’s important to remember team success does NOT dictate who wins and loses this award. In a few previous races, a team’s standing in a playoff race has most certainly benefited the award winner (Barnes absolutely took advantage of Toronto’s fifth place finish in the East compared to Cade Cunningham and Evan Mobley’s respective records), but there are enough examples of winners on poor teams like four of the five noted here.
Now that the commanalities between winners are out of the way, which of this year’s rookies actually stand a chance at winning the Rookie of the Year Award?
Top Candidates
Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies (9th Overall Pick)
Zach Edey is in excellent position to not only have a great rookie season, but play a role in impacting a team looking to contend in the Western Conference.
The Memphis Grizzlies had a gaping hole at center before drafting the 7’4” big man out of Purdue, and while there’s a strong possibility Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke will get their fair share of minutes at the 5, Edey’s strengths (literally, the dude is a mountain) could really bolster the frontline.
Ja Morant is at his best when he’s had a partner to pair who sets hard screens, rolls, and provides offensive rebounding to clean up contested misses. Edey provides all of those qualities, even if his pick-and-roll game wasn’t utilized at volume in terms of him getting all the way to the basket rather than sealing and posting for an entry pass. While he will surely get post touches, Edey can catch lobs and dunk it home with the best of them, which should help Morant keep racking up his assist totals for years to come.
Not only will his screen game help Morant, but shooters like Desmond Bane, Jake LaRavia, GG Jackson (when healthy), and Jackson Jr. will also benefit from being able to come off actions to run into open shots after Edey deals some powerful blows.
There are defensive questions abound with Edey, but he meets all of the listed criteria above in terms of being able to produce quickly when given the opportunity. Biggest factor to his case will be health, as he already had a questionable Summer League stint only playing in two games.
Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets (3rd Overall Pick)
If Zach Edey runs into some bad injury luck, Reed Sheppard would be the next player in line to take advantage.
There’s a real case to be made against a player like Sheppard in terms of opportunity. The Houston Rockets are a legitimate 10 deep, and given the fact Sheppard doesn’t project to be in the starting lineup or garnering minutes as a sixth man early on, he has an uphill battle to win an award such as Rookie of the Year, given the leash he will have to earn from head coach Ime Udoka.
But honestly, that may not matter because Sheppard might be that damn good.
In four games in Las Vegas Summer League, Sheppard averaged 20 PPG and dished out 5.3 APG in the process. While he didn’t shoot the ball as efficiently as we saw at Kentucky and caught the turnover bug as games went on, Sheppard’s play was dazzling to watch on tape.
With his ability to get into the teeth of the defense, make the right reads, and command the offense, Sheppard started quieting doubters quickly in terms of whether he was ready to shoulder more burden as a lead guard rather than opting to operate away from the ball as a smaller shooting guard.
With a well-rounded offensive game that’s complemented by defensive insticts that allow him to make plays and help the Rockets push out in transition, Sheppard will fit like a glove playing off adept passing talents like Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson.
Houston needs more shooting in its lineups to make a playoff push, so it will be hard for this team to ignore a player who had one of the greatest shooting seasons we’ve ever seen in college last year.
And if Sheppard gets the opportunity to lead offenses off the bench while getting clean looks from all over the floor playing alongside starters in different lineups, he could make a strong push to contend for Rookie of the Year.
Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks (1st Overall Pick)
Although many scouts questioned whether Zaccharie Risacher was worth the top pick by the Atlanta Hawks in the 2024 draft, he showed signs of being able to slot right in on the wing during his Summer League minutes.
Risacher wasn’t particularly efficient, but he had moments where he was able to provide value away from the ball in a complementary role—which is what will be expected of him out of the gate in Atlanta.
Not only did he prove he could make both open and contested shots, but Risacher also showed some defensive chops similar to what he was able to demonstrate overseas in France.
The Hawks don’t have too many other players on the roster who are plus-sized on the wing, can reliably hit outside shots both spotting up and on the move, and defend multiple positions. Risacher is not only a building block for the future next to Jalen Johnson, but there’s a world where he becomes one of the favorite kick-out targets of Trae Young right off the rip.
If Risacher is fed offensive opportunities both as a shooter and as a transition scorer/facilitator, coupled with some moments defensively, it could really help his case in terms of getting on awards ballots. Not to mention there’s a chance the Hawks could rise up the standings in the Eastern Conference, only helping Risacher’s case as a contender for Rookie of the Year.
Carlton Carrington, Washington Wizards (14th Overall Pick)
This one is going to require a little imagination, but hear me out.
Bub Carrington didn’t have it easy playing in Summer League alongside inexperienced peers and players who likely won’t be mainstays in the NBA this upcoming season. Couple that along with the fact he’s coming in to play a position that historically isn’t kind to rookies, and he has an uphill battle of his own to even produce at an All-Rookie level.
Oh, I didn’t even mention the fact that there are two veteran gaurds ahead of him on the Washington Wizards roster in Malcolm Brodgon and Jordan Poole.
Wait, where was I going with this one? Oh yeah, ALWAYS HAVE OPTIMISM!
Yes, the challenges are there for Carrington. But even though he bit off more than he could chew in Las Vegas, Carrington still found ways to put the ball in the basket and get to the line more than I expected.
Carrington is a bigger guard in terms of height at 6’5” but possesses a skinny frame that will require some bulking up before he can really hit his stride as a driver. But that didn’t stop Carrington from playing aggressive and finding spots to create paint touches in Vegas.
An experienced ball handler who ran 357 pick-and-roll possessions in college last season at Pitt and excelled as a scorer and distributor, Carrington’s pull-up jumper and ability to make defenders pay in ball screen actions is something the Wizards could use more of, especially if someone like Brogdon finds himself on the trade block sooner rather than later.
If Carrington can find ways to hold his own defensively and play longer stretches in the middle of both Poole and Bilal Coulibaly, I could totally see his combination of first-step burst and pull-up shooting becoming a dynamic weapon for Washington.
Should he find the right opportunity to produce, Carrington is capable of putting up numbers just like he did for the Panthers. And truthfully, I don’t think there should be much stopping Bub from getting some shine in what appears to be a tank-filled season in the nation’s capital.
Rob Dillingham, Minnesota Timberwolves (8th Overall Pick)
If you are a guard who can produce early on at volume and shoot the cover off the ball, you have a shot at the Rookie of the Year Award.
Just like Bub Carrington and Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham comes in with expectations to eventually contribute in a big way for his respective team. The Minnesota Timberwolves traded future assets to get all the way up to select Dillingham at #8 overall, meaning that this move wasn’t just made for down the road.
Dillingham is stepping into an excellent situation for both his short and long-term development. Having a mentor in Mike Conley who can show him the ropes is valuable in itself, but Dillingham will be surrounded by talented personnel who can make up for some of his weaknesses.
It’s no secret Dillingham will be hunted down and targeted on defense, but with guys like Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards, and oh yea the STIFLE TOWER Rudy Gobert to back him up, there’s much less pressure on Dillingham to be a dynamo defender at the point of attack.
Pivoting to how he can impact the game offensively, this Timberwolves team could use another guy alongside Edwards who is adept at creating his own shot. One of the most electrifying bucket-getters in all of college basketball last year, that’s Dillingham’s calling card: deep off-the-dribble threes and hitting contested floaters/layups off of crafty paint touches.
Physically, Dillingham is coming into the NBA at a disadvantage from a raw strength standpoint, but he has that waterbug quickness when it comes to creating separation in short spurts. That, and his handle might already be one of the best the league has to offer.
It may take Dillingham time to find his stride as an efficient scorer (it may not even happen this season), BUT if it does, his case as a spark plug contributing on a top contender in the West could mount as the season progresses to a point where it’s impossible to ignore him on the ballot.
Longer Shot Candidates
Ron Holland, Detroit Pistons (5th Overall Pick)
Ron Holland could end up being one of the most fun rookies to watch while also building a Rookie of the Year case based solely on raw production.
Holland was by no means efficient for the G League Ignite last year, but he was the best per-minute scorer the team had to offer by a mile, both in transition and as a shot-maker in the halfcourt.
Lacking a reliable jump shot to operate away from the basketball, I’ll be very curious how the Detroit Pistons balance multiple non-shooters on the team. Holland and fellow wing Ausar Thompson could be the best defenders Detroit has to offer, but playing both together severely hampers spacing while also providing no clear role for either to operate within.
Thompson found success as a screener, cutter, and garbage scorer for the Pistons last season. If he’s in that spot, where does Holland fit in?
Conversely, if Holland has to be staggered in certain lineups to balance out shooting effectiveness around Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, how much opportunity will he have to post the exciting highlight plays we all know he’s capable of?
A lot will ride on his ability to hit jump shots and make sound, quick decisions on both sides of the ball, but Holland’s motor, toughness, and athleticism could put him in position to succeed quicker than some anticipate.
Kel’el Ware, Miami Heat (15th Overall Pick)
Kel’el Ware absolutely dominated Summer League in a way I’m not sure anyone was expecting.
Across both the California Classic and Las Vegas Summer Leagues, Ware averaged 18.3 PPG, 8.4 RPG, and 1.9 BPG. His two-way performance helped the Miami Heat win the Las Vegas Summer League title, and was quite the boon for a team that’s been hunting for years for a quality backup big.
Having Bam Adebayo at the center spot is a luxury for any club looking to contend for a title, but there are certain matchups where it’s also nice to have a 7-footer who can protect the rim, finish lobs, and offer some size and length in the post.
While Adebayo has continuously moved his game out more to the elbows and above the break, Ware is best operating in different areas of the floor while allowing Miami to play different styles of defense in comparison to when Adebayo is on the floor.
Truthfully, I’m intrigued to see if both Ware and Adebayo can share the floor together with Ware’s determination to take outside shots and Bam’s improvements as a mid-range jump shooter (he even knocked down a respectable amount of threes last season).
But that curiousity aside, Ware could prove to be so good on a per-mintue basis for a playoff contender that he catapults himself into the Rookie of the Year race.
Centers generally don’t assert themselves in major ways as rookie contributors historically (more on that later), but Ware is talented enough to be one of those exceptions.
Terrence Shannon Jr., Minnesota Timberwolves (27th Overall Pick)
One of my favorite dark horse picks to both make noise as a rookie and possibly thrust his name into the Rookie of the Year race, Terrence Shannon Jr. comes into the NBA as an athletic wing scorer who possesses the physical talent to guard multiple positions out of the gate.
Keeping his evaluation on the court, Shannon Jr. wasn’t always the most consistent player during his college career. There were nights he would shoot well from the floor, or pile up defensive turnovers, or act as a one-man wrecking crew in terms of both scoring and playmaking. But the next night, he could fall short in all of those areas and just serve as an inefficient wing who didn’t deserve high-volume responsibilities.
Then, his last season at Illinois happened. Shannon Jr. scored 23 PPG while posting a slash line of 47.5/36.2/80.1 overall. The true focal point of the team’s offense, Shannon Jr. had a season possessed in which he just rarely could be stopped from imposing his will as a scorer.
A confident driver, and more sure of himself as a shooter, Shannon Jr. picked his spots well and consistently found gaps in the defense where he could create opportunities at the basket or pull up for easy looks inside the arc. When the ball swung back around to him for spot-up shots, he knocked them down at a great clip (11.2 3PA per 100 possessions).
Coming into the NBA as an established offensive wing, Shannon Jr. will certainly have to earn minutes alongside fellow rookie Rob Dillingham for the Minnesota Timberwolves. But injuries and other events can pile up quickly in the league, leading to spots for rookies to prove themselves.
Shannon Jr. proved he was ready at Summer League, and as long as he stays ready for his shot in the regular season, he could become a part of the Timberwolves’ bench rotation leading to larger minutes as the season goes on.
And if that becomes the case, Shannon Jr. can score in bunches and put up numbers worthy of climbing into a Rookie of the Year race.
2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year Award Prediction: Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies
Last Five All-Rookie Team Selections
2020 First Team
Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies (2nd Overall Pick) Lotto Non-Frosh G
Kendrick Nunn, Miami Heat (Undrafted) Non-Frosh G
Brandon Clarke, Memphis Grizzlies (21st Overall Pick) Non-Frosh F
Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans (1st Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh F
Eric Paschall, Golden State Warriors (41st Overall Pick) Non-Frosh F
2020 Second Team
Tyler Herro, Miami Heat (13th Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh G
Terence Davis II, Toronto Raptors (Undrafted) Non-Frosh G
Rui Hachimura, Washington Wizards (9th Overall Pick) Lotto Non-Frosh F
PJ Washington, Charlotte Hornets (12th Overall Pick) Lotto Non-Frosh F
Coby White, Chicago Bulls (7th Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh G
2021 First Team
LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets (3rd Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh (One Year Removed) G
Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves (1st Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh W
Tyrese Haliburton, Sacramento Kings (12th Overall Pick) Lotto Non-Frosh G
Jae’sean Tate, Houston Rockets (Undrafted) Non-Frosh W
Saddiq Bey, Detroit Pistons (19th Overall Pick) Non-Frosh W
2021 Second Team
Desmond Bane, Memphis Grizzlies (30th Overall Pick) Non-Frosh G
Isaac Okoro, Cleveland Cavaliers (5th Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh W
Immanuel Quickley, New York Knicks (25th Overall Pick) Non-Frosh G
Isaiah Stewart, Detroit Pistons (16th Overall Pick) Frosh F
Patrick Williams, Chicago Bulls (4th Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh F
2022 First Team
Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors (4th Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh F
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons (1st Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh G
Jalen Green, Houston Rockets (2nd Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh (One Year Removed) W
Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers (3rd Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh F
Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic (8th Overall Pick) Lotto Non-Frosh F
2022 Second Team
Ayo Dosunmu, Chicago Bulls (38th Overall Pick) Non-Frosh G
Chris Duarte, Indiana Pacers (13th Overall Pick) Lotto Non-Frosh W
Josh Giddey, Oklahoma City Thunder (6th Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh (One Year Removed) G
Bones Hyland, Denver Nuggets (26th Overall Pick) Non-Frosh G
Herb Jones, New Orleans Pelicans (35th Overall Pick) Non-Frosh W
2023 First Team
Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic (1st Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh F
Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz (22nd Overall Pick) Non-Frosh C
Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers (6th Overall Pick) Lotto Non-Frosh W
Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings (4th Overall Pick) Lotto Non-Frosh W
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder (12th Overall Pick) Lotto Non-Frosh W
2023 Second Team
Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons (13th Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh C
Tari Eason, Houston Rockets (17th Overall Pick) Non-Frosh F
Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons (5th Overall Pick) Lotto Non-Frosh G
Jabari Smith, Houston Rockets (3rd Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh F
Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio Spurs (9th Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh F
2024 First Team
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (1st Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh (One Year Removed) C
Brandin Podziemski, Golden State Warriors (19th Overall Pick) Non-Frosh G
Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets (2nd Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh W
Jaime Jaquez, Miami Heat (18th Overall Pick) Non-Frosh W
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder (2nd Overall Pick Prior Year) Lotto Frosh C
2024 Second Team
Keyonte George, Utah Jazz (16th Overall Pick) Frosh G
GG Jackson, Memphis Grizzlies (45th Overall Pick) Frosh F
Dereck Lively, Dallas Mavericks (12th Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh C
Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets (4th Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh (One Year Removed) G
Cason Wallace, Oklahoma City Thunder (10th Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh G
A few key, important factors here worth pointing out when going over these selections:
50 Total Players
25 of 50 Freshmen or One Year Removed Equivalent
30 of 50 Lottery Picks
7 of 50 Second Round or Undrafted Players
18 of 50 Guards
12 of 50 Wings
15 of 50 Forwards
5 of 50 Centers
All 5 No. 1 picks made the last five All-Rookie First Teams; Only 3 times has the No. 1 pick not made an All-Rookie 1st Team in the last 20 years (Markelle Fultz, Anthony Bennett, Greg Oden)
2024-25 All-Rookie First Team Predictions
Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies (9th Overall Pick) Lotto Non-Frosh C
Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets (3rd Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh G
Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks (1st Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh (One Year Removed) W
Matas Buzelis, Chicago Bulls (11th Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh (One Year Removed) F
Carlton Carrington, Washington Wizards (14th Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh G
Health permitting, there’s an incredibly strong argument for both Zach Edey and Reed Sheppard to end up on the All-Rookie First Team at the end of the season. Both as I wrote above have opportunities in front of them to complement talented cores with meaningful two-way depth. Not to mention veterans around and in front of them to learn from.
I’m also going to buy into the Bub Carrington rookie breakout close to the trade deadline. His skill as a shot maker both on and off the ball will get him opportunities not every guard has in this class. Plenty of shots to be had given where the Washington Wizards expect to finish in the standings.
And as noted, it’s incredibly rare for a #1 overall pick to NOT end up on the All-Rookie First Team, so given historical precedent I’m inclined to believe he will have opportunities to develop chemistry with Trae Young and Jalen Johnson sooner rather than later as a transition outlet and wing shot maker.
That leaves one spot up for grabs to a player I haven’t yet expounded upon but believe in earlier than later: Matas Buzelis.
Buzelis is in a fascinating position with the Chicago Bulls. This team is quietly deep with NBA-level talent despite not having the most glowing reputation coming into this year. For good reason, too.
Chicago’s 2025 first-round pick is Top 10 protected this season, meaning that in order to keep it and have a chance at securing a prospect from seemingly a stellar class, this team has to find a way to turn the tide away from mediocrity and a low seed in the Play-In Tournament.
So how exactly will that happen? Well, there are a number of veterans who could be on the move even if Chicago has been reluctant to move off talent in the past (or, in the case of Zach LaVine, if they can’t find a bidder).
Upon clearing out some experienced players more suited for a win-now situation, younger players will be handed the keys such as newly acquired Josh Giddey, Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu, and somewhat of a “prove it” campaign for fresh off an extension Patrick Williams.
Here’s where Matas Buzelis comes in. What Buzelis brings to the table is different from those perimeter-oriented guards and forwards. Buzelis is an athletic finisher who plays with an edge around the basket. He can dunk over guys even if he isn’t the most physically imposing player on the court.
Buzelis also plays hard in transition, is a better mid-range scorer than given credit for, and had arguably one of the better defensive campaigns for Ignite last season as a secondary rim protector and shot blocker.
The Bulls need someone committed to getting easy buckets, rebounding, running the floor, and playing complementary defense. Buzelis is best suited as a lottery pick to do all of those things, meaning there’s a real pathwway for him to get minutes possibly sooner than even I am anticipating.
With the chance to put together a two-way stretch and produce, Buzelis has in my mind as good a chance as any to get the nod as an All-Rookie First Team performer so long as he isn’t buried on the team’s depth chart for too long.
2024-25 All-Rookie Second Team Predictions
Devin Carter, Sacramento Kings (13th Overall Pick) Lotto Non-Frosh G
Kel’el Ware, Miami Heat (15th Overall Pick) Non-Frosh
Ron Holland, Detroit Pistons (5th Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh
Rob Dillingham, Minnesota Timberwolves (8th Overall Pick) Lotto Frosh
Terrence Shannon Jr., Minnesota Timberwolves (27th Overall Pick) Non-Frosh
I’ve already spoken about a number of the players who earned nods on my All-Rookie Second Team predictions, but as with the first group, there’s one spot for a player I haven’t discussed yet.
Despite coming into the season off an injury that prevented him from partaking in Summer League action, Devin Carter has a real shot at getting significant minutes out the gate when he’s healthy.
The Sacramento Kings have as solid of a starting unit (including potential 6MOY candidate Malik Monk) as there is in the NBA. But after that, the quality bench depth has been lacking for some time now.
Former lottery pick Davion Mitchell was supposed to be the answer to solidify the second unit backcourt but never quite broke out the same way he did at Baylor in a championship run.
In steps Carter, who fits a similar mold as Mitchell: a shorter guard who can step in as a combo and is known for playing hellacious defense as a playmaker.
Where I prefer Carter over Mitchell is not necessarily his shooting ability, but Carter’s ability to impact a game on the glass and create extra possessions has me excited.
Carter put up a rebounding season at Providence that would’ve made Santa Clara standout Brandin Podziemski blush. Carter’s advanced stats were off the charts, especially when factoring in just how much two-way burden he carried for the Friars.
Now, he gets to step in without the pressure of being a go-to scoring threat. Carter can focus on defending in the backcourt, crashing the glass, pushing the ball in transition, and just fighting his absolute ass off as he loves to do on the court.
Role players who have proven they’re capable of more at lower levels are the REAL role players in the NBA. I may have a piece coming at some point expanding on that topic, but I truly believe those are the types of players NBA teams want on their bench when the going gets tough. Those who can scale up and down to whatever the team needs to win, that’s who I want more so than somemone who has the “potential” to be more without the proven capabilities and versatility.
Carter has a skillset that translates to the NBA and what the Kings want to do. He can help address weaknesses of the Kings last season which were shot blocking and rebounding outside of Domantas Sabonis. And he’s experienced and willing to do whatever it takes to win. That’s why he’s my last pick to make an All-Rookie squad.
Long Term Favorites
Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs
This section is more of my place to wax poetic about a few players who I’m not sold will have the opportunities or games to make a strong impact during their rookie seasons, yet I still buy all the way into their long-term potential.
No better person to start with than a guy who I would’ve taken with a Top 3 pick in last year’s draft: Stephon Castle.
Castle certainly has his weaknesses that will hold him back early on, including his perimeter shooting. But what he does have to give him a fighting chance is in his demeanor and physicality.
The way Castle defends doesn’t easily show up on the stat sheet. He’s not out there constantly gambling and looking to make a play on the ball. Castle is an old-school brick wall who takes pride in shutting down the opposing ball handler. Guys can’t easily go through or over him, so they have to either pass the ball away or get funneled into a direction he wants them to go.
And if that’s the case, good luck dribbling into the same vicinity as Victor Wembanyama.
I’m bought in to how Castle can defend, rebound, and even score some timely buckets in his rookie year. But if a backcourt player can’t consistently knock down perimeter shots, it gets really hard to have them on the floor for extended stretches especially if they view themselves as a point guard.
The good news is Castle looked much more comfortable shooting both spotting up and off the dribble towards the end of his championship season at UConn. And though the results weren’t extraordinary, he made a few buckets in Summer League that peaked my interest.
I know who Castle is and what he stands for, and that player will go a long way alongside an MVP-caliber talent like Wembanyama. The future is bright, even if he’s going to endure some growing pains early on.
Donovan Clingan, Portland Trail Blazers
Donovan Clingan is as talented of a big man prospect as we’ve had in the draft over the last few years (aside from the alien who is Wemby). So by no means do I think his skill set or what he can’t do as well out of the gate is what could hold him back this season.
The big man depth chart for the Portland Trail Blazers is just too damn long.
Deandre Ayton, Robert Williams, and Duop Reath are all NBA-caliber centers who deserve minutes on a team with little to no expectations. Given Clingan is the new man on the block, he either has to be a supreme favorite to get leash early, or he has to really outperform all three in training camp.
Clingan has the makings of an All-Defense level center down the road, but offensively he’s a few steps behind all three of those guys if the motor is running hot.
Ayton can face up and score from the free throw line or at the elbows. Williams is one of the best vertical spacers at the center position when healthy. And Reath had some moments last year where he not only was an effective roller, but also could space and hit threes from above the break.
There was some buzz pre-draft that Clingan has been working on his outside shot, but without a proven post-up game or perimeter shot, it’s tough to imagine he’s going to get significant minutes without one or multiple of the other options moved.
Now I do fully expect Portland to make some decisions before the deadline, but relying on other moves to be made in order to earn a consistent spot in the rotation isn’t something I’m willing to put money on in regards to Clingan having a season that lands him on an All-Rookie Team.
But mark my words, once the Trail Blazers sort out the depth chart, Clingan can become a reliable anchor in the frontcourt who produces in ways that are condusive to winning.
Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George, Washington Wizards
Both Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George were mainstays on draft boards at a certain point last draft cycle, with Sarr obviously keeping a top spot for most if not the entire run. George came onto the scene later after some impressive performances at Miami, but scouts I spoke to fairly early on had both firmly on their radars.
Now Sarr and George find themselves in an interesting spot with a nice mix of young talent and veterans in Washington.
Bub Carrington, Sarr, George, and Bilal Coulibaly represent a multi-positional grouping of players who can all dribble, pass, and shoot to some degree. That’s the type of modern NBA we live in, not to mention all four have qualities in which they’re expected to grow into real contributors on the defensive end as well.
Unfortunately, I’m not sure either of Sarr or George are going to have the kind of impact early on to garner the interest of awards voters barring unforeseen offensive breakouts.
In Sarr’s case, his performance from a shot making standpoint at Suummer League was the last thing any Wizards fan wanted to see. I’m not one to say the struggles from the floor were massive reason to panic, certainly nothing to warrant “bust” comments when Sarr hasn’t even taken the floor for a regular season game.
But the results were a stark reminder that Sarr doesn’t have any on-ball creativity yet to reliably set himself up on offense. He’s going to rely heavily on guards and wings to create for him, which requires chemistry and coaching that simply takes time to develop.
He will more surely have some highlights where he skies for lobs and may even knock down a few pick-and-pop jumpers, but I woudn’t expect Sarr to walk into 15-17 PPG in his rookie year. And although I do think his ability to move his feet and protect the rim defensively can alter a game from day one, these awards tend to favor those who can put the ball in the basket and produce at a certain level offensively.
Meanwhile, I’m not as concerned about George’s offense in the way I am about Sarr. George can shoot that rock, and he did so at Miami.
Where I take pause in George during his initial season is he isn’t known for being an explosive driver and finisher off the bounce. George is a creative passer and can make the next read to keep the ball moving, but I’ll be very curious to see how quickly both his ball handling and live-dribble decision making can develop within Washington’s system.
If his role is reduced more to that of a spot-up shooter, that’s not as endearing for a rookie given that the adjustment to the NBA line can be difficult and sometimes unforgiving. Generally, the average percentage from distance for rookies sits around 31-32% which is below league average. So relying on a rookie to consistently hit from deep in order to provide value isn’t always the safest bet to make.
That being said, both have the talent to become strong NBA contributors in due time. Big wings who can make plays for others and score from distance are exactly the types of guys NBA teams want to invest in, while 7-footers who move well and can both block shots and shoot from deep don’t exactly populate every team in the league.
Both were great picks to make even if the early returns aren’t as productive as fans might hope for them to be.
Jonathan Mogbo, Toronto Raptors
Last but not least, I was fully expecting the Toronto Raptors to take a swing on someone like Jonathan Mogbo.
A franchise that has been known for drafting players with length, quickness, and decision-making instincts at the wing and forward positions had to have a soft spot for Mogbo.
One of the most fascinating prospects from last cycle, Mogbo put up quite the statistical profile for San Franciso, boasting insane rebounding and assist rates while also producing well in the defensive playmaking departments.
Mogbo covers a ton of ground, knows how to play, and has the type of motor that just doesn’t shut off. Raptors fans should be incredibly excited to watch this young man continue to develop.
Another situation in which I’m not sure on how the depth chart is going to shake out, Mogbo is likely going to spend a good chunk of his season in the G League. But when he does get the opportunity to play some minutes with the Raptors, he fits the team’s up-and-down style of play to a tee.
What I’m most curious about with Mogbo is how the team views his future development from a positional standpoint. Will Toronto view him as a bigger wing who can initiate so long as the jump shot comes around? Or if he’s unable to reliably space the floor, can the Raptors find a home for him as a small-ball center, and is he actually capable of excelling in that role?
Either way, Mogbo is the type of swing I’d love to take in the second round if I were in a front office, and leave it to the Toronto Raptors to make the pick.
G League Top Performer Watch
Dillon Jones and Ajay Mitchell, Oklahoma City Thunder
This group of players also has my interest piqued for a different reason. While each of these guys are talented enough to break out in their respective teams’ rotations (and may very well do so), they’re also playing on squads looking to contend and even go deep into the postseason.
With that being the case, these situations aren’t always going to allow for rookies to get consistent reps. Depth charts are loaded with veterans solidifying their spots around the stars to build chemistry needed to win in April, May, and June.
Therefore, I’m not expecting Dillon Jones or Ajay Mitchell to earn quality minutes for the Thunder this season, but I expect big things from them with the OKC Blue.
I’ll be writing throughout the year on the G League and lessons we can take away from development/performances, and I fully expect Jones and Mitchell to both be topics of conversation.
Jones is a do-it-all wing who showcased his versatility he displayed for years at Weber State with the Thunder in Summer League. Able to rebound, ruun pick-and-roll offense, and score both on and off ball, Jones brings a competitive energy coupled with great court awareness and decision making. His balance on both sides of the ball should scale well in the G League, and I’m curious to see how he develops heading into next season.
Mitchell on the other had is a dynamic scoring guard who also did a little bit of everything in Summer League. Known as an electric driver who can create paint touches seemingly at will, Mitchell also knocked down some solid jumpers and willingly defended at the point of attack this summer. A former UC Santa Barbara standout, Mitchell’s numbers in the G League may raise some eyebrows throughout the year.
Tristan da Silva, Orlando Magic
Word from media day is that the Orlando Magic veterans know how good Tristan da Silva is and how he could really impact this team’s future.
It wouldn’t shock me to see the talented forward find a home in Orlando’s rotation this season, but for a club looking to contend in the playoffs with other young guys in sophomores Anthony Black and Jett Howard looking to get extended run, the rotation may very well be a little too crowded for da Silva to break out.
Moving forward, though, his offensive stretch in Summer League was a sign of things to come. A patient scorer, sound decision maker, and capable multi-positional defender, da Silva has the tools to impact the game at the pro level as a dribble, pass, and shoot big wing.
Jaylon Tyson, Cleveland Cavaliers
Another dribble, pass, and shoot wing who found himself on the right side of Summer League, Jaylon Tyson’s game is made to impact exactly what the Cleveland Cavaliers have been looking for the past few seasons.
With Isaac Okoro extended as well as Max Strus and Caris LeVert still in the mix for the playoff-contending Cavaliers, it will be tough for Tyson to earn minutes over any of those established veterans.
But his blend of all three of the listed offensive skills above may be better than any of them can present in one shot quite frankly. Okoro is a stronger defender, LeVert has more experience as a playmaker at the NBA level, and Strus is one of the best corner spot-up shooters in the league. But blending all three of those together, and I’m not sure any of the three can present the full package like Tyson could in the near future.
There’s plenty to work on with Tyson in terms of strengthening his body and becoming a more powerful player, but his skilled handle, craft off the bounce, and decision making could find minutes in Cleveland.
Jared McCain, Philadelphia 76ers
Jared McCain may prove to be another one of those shrewd draft picks by Daryl Morey when it’s all said and done.
A freshman standout at Duke University, Jared McCain’s presence as a shot maker was at times intoxicating for college basketball fans to take in when the lights were brightest.
His ability to knock in shots from every angle off the dribble earned him a near-lottery slot in the draft, and for good reason. While he’s not the most explosive guard as a below-the-rim finisher, McCain is strong and knows how to use his body to create separation without having a lighting-quick first step.
Playoff teams always could use more shooting, so it’s not inconceivable that McCain could play some minutes this year for the Philadelphia 76ers. But to suggest that he has a spot waiting for him on a team that legitimately goes 11 deep when factoring in both the vets in front of him as well as fellow youngster Ricky Council IV, and I can’t see McCain getting consistent minutes outside of the G League.
But the Delware Blue Coats is a team that’s found great success in the G League playoffs, so ultimately it’s not the worst spot for his development should he spend time there. And if he does, expect some large scoring outbursts to follow suit.
Dalton Knecht, Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers fans always expect every player signed to be the best thing since sliced bread. And I get it, expectations in a star-driven city are high.
But even if Dalton Knecht doesn’t find a home playing extended minutes alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, that doesn’t mean he was a poor draft pick to make.
Frankly, there may not be as many dynamic shooters as good as Knecht as we think. He’s even earned high praise from that of new head coach JJ Redick.
Whether he’s able to utilize his skill as a movement shooter in an offense looking for some new wrinkles or not, he won’t just be riding the bench all year long. Redick was on record on Zach Lowe’s podcast that they view the G League as “an extension of the franchise” given the team’s proximity. So Knecht will be closely monitored for a greater opportunity playing for the South Bay Lakers.
And even though a player like him is bound to go through shooting slumps and growing pains, Knecht has a place in the NBA whether it’s this coming season or next.
Baylor Scheierman, Boston Celtics
Baylor Scheierman’s role as a skilled shooter is currently occupied in the Boston Celtics’ rotation by Sam Hauser, but that doesn’t mean he wans’t the right pick by the front office in June.
Matter of fact, the more scouts you talked to before the draft, the more who were sold on Scheierman proving to be a steal if he were taken late in the first round.
A player who can do a little bit of everything offensively, Scheierman’s confidence may be his greatest attribute. The distances at which that man pulled up from three at Creighton occasionally left my jaw on the floor, and he’d nail those those shots and celebrate like he owned the other team.
Truthfully, that’s the type of belief in oneself that’s required to succeed in the postseason of any team sport. Scheierman has that in him, and isn’t afraid to put everything on the line to get the win, even if some of the shots he takes are probably ill-advised “no, no, no, YES!” looks.
But I love me some irrational confidence,and Scheierman has it in spades. Whether he’s balling out for the Maine Celtics or finding a role up in Boston, Scheierman was a great pick-up and will have a home in the NBA for years to come.
There are plenty more rookies I could write words about now, but why spoil the entire class now? Trust me, there’s PLENTY more to come from me. But if there’s anything to be taken away from this piece, remember that context MATTERS in a player’s development early on.
Guys who are in the right spots to succeed both short and long term are the ones who we will be discussing well past my Youth Movement NBA columns. And even though that’s the case, don’t always be quick to write off guys who start their careers in the G League!