2024 Olympic Basketball Group Stage Takeaways

The 2024 Paris Summer Olympics have been a blast and a real testament to how much worldwide talent there is. Here are some of the biggest takeaways from the group stage and predictions going forward.

International basketball is always a fun experience, especially at the Olympics. It allows us to see these incredible players in a different setting, with different teammates, playing a different style, and playing for the passion and pride of their country, not just a paycheck. The world has arguably never been as flush with talent as it is currently, and that has been on full display at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics. We still have plenty left, but now that the group stage has concluded, here are my biggest takeaways so far from the Olympics.

USA Basketball is Just Fine

With the rise of dominant individual international players, one of the common media tropes has been to ask if USA basketball is falling behind the rest of the world. When you’re Goliath, you have to keep an eye out for David. What these Olympics are showing us, outside of the 3x3 competition, is that USA basketball is doing just fine. The men’s team cruised through their group by winning all three games with a point differential of +64, which was the highest of any team. This USA roster is arguably the most talented team, top-to-bottom, that they’ve ever sent to the Olympics.

What makes this team so special is that any single player on the roster can take over at any point. They aren’t entirely reliant on one or two players; instead, they are a team laden with superstars who are now playing like role players rather than a heliocentric offensive engine. Since each player is always playing with four other NBA stars at all times, they don’t have to exert as much energy to singular offensive creation like we’re used to seeing from them. Instead, they’re redistributing that energy to doing the little things like constantly playing lockdown defense, cutting, rebounding, and off-ball movement. It’s a great reminder that when these guys aren’t tasked with having to do everything on offense, they are, in fact, pretty damn good defenders and all-around players.

Leading the charge for this team is LeBron James as he averaged 14.3 points, 7.3 assists, and 6.7 rebounds in group play. The constant discourse around James’s production at his age is exhausting and overplayed. These Olympics may be the most grateful and appreciative of his sustainability, though. If not for his historic resiliency and health, 2012 would’ve been the last time we got to watch James dominate a major tournament wearing a USA jersey, which would have been an absolute shame. What makes this special is that James isn’t just on the team, but he’s one of the driving forces of the team.

Another main driving force for this team is arguably the best (and potentially soon to be most decorated) USA basketball player ever, Kevin Durant. Things were looking a little shaky as Durant missed their showcase games with a calf injury. Thankfully, Durant hit the ground running the second the Olympics officially started. Durant has been coming off the bench, but that hasn’t diminished his influence as he’s averaging 16 points, 2.0 assists, and 2.7 rebounds on 63.6/71.4/90.9 shooting splits. Durant is also six points away from passing Lisa Leslie for the most Olympic points in USA history. With a gold medal, he will also become the most decorated USA men’s player of all time by tying Carmelo Anthony’s medal total (three golds and one bronze) and passing him with a total of four gold medals.

In most cases, having two players of James and Durant’s age be the focal point would be concerning for the longevity of the team. Well, this is USA basketball, so the cupboards aren’t exactly bare. While this team is led by seasoned veterans, some of the most impressive performances have come from the younger players like Anthony Edwards, Devin Booker, and Bam Adebayo. Edwards has been coming off the bench averaging 16.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.7 assists while shooting 70.6% from two and 53.8% from three. We’re seeing a very similar continued development in Edwards’s game as we saw from him in the last FIBA World Cup. He continues to pop on defense, has improved as a cutter and passer, and constantly gets to whatever spot he wants. Similarly, we’ve seen Booker do a fantastic job of scaling down his offensive role while really turning up the defense and offensive efficiency. Finally, Adebayo has had one of the most impressive all-around showings. His numbers aren’t outlandish, but his presence and impact are always felt. The biggest development has been the continued expansion of his shooting range as he’s taking a few threes per game and how much he’s playing with another big on the floor. Both of these should get Heat fans pretty excited about some of the lineups we could see from them next year.

Going this far in and not even mentioning Anthony Davis yet disgusts me just as much as it has you, don’t worry. That just speaks to how dominant this team has been, though. Davis has been fantastic on both ends of the floor, and he’s been one of the most dominant defenders in the tournament. When he’s played with Adebayo, their defensive versatility together has been devastating.

The riches on this team are outlandish as is evident by the fact I haven’t even mentioned a handful of elite NBA players. Tyrese Haliburton seems to be the odd man out in most of these rotation decisions. Derrick White and Jrue Holiday have been exactly who they always are. Jayson Tatum is hopefully finding his rhythm with back-to-back starts after getting a DNP in game one. Finally, there’s Steph Curry and Joel Embiid who have both been a far shout from the players we’re used to seeing. That’s the special part about this team, though, is that they can have two former MVPs playing at a fraction of their capabilities and it doesn’t really matter.

The Joys of a Different Context

Context is everything. With prospects, we’ve seen a bad landing spot totally derail a career while good ones have accelerated development. International play can result in a lot of the same things as we get to see these guys in a different context.

At one end of the spectrum, we have superstars who are yet again carrying their less talented team. The two biggest names in this realm are Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo. The context of their play (being the best player on their team) isn’t different. What is different is their surrounding teammates. Jokic is in a better spot as Serbia has a bit more talent with players like Bogdan Bogdanovic, Nikola Jovic, Vasilije Micic, and a few other deep cuts that college fans would recognize (Filip Petrusev and Uros Plavsic). As we saw in the USA game, though, Jokic is the end all be all for this team and drastically elevates the game of everyone around him. Unlike Jokic, Antetokounmpo isn’t surrounded by as many recognizable names with Nick Calathes and Georgios Papagiannis likely being the most recognizable ones, and those are deep cuts for most fans. Antetokounmpo led Greece in the group stage in scoring and rebounds and is second in assists. He also ranked first, eighth, and 18th, respectively, in the entire tournament. Helping Greece qualify for the Olympics in the first place was a major feat. Coming away with a win in a group with Canada, Spain, and Australia was surprising. Advancing to the knockout stage with that one win and the most favorable point differential is exactly why Antetokounmpo is still in the conversation for best player in the world.

Seeing superstars carry their home nation is incredible. What’s also always really enjoyable is seeing the NBA role players who are elevated into a more prolific role with their international team and take a big step forward. The two biggest winners in this realm were Josh Giddey and Dyson Daniels. What makes both of these players even more interesting is that we’ll be seeing both in a new NBA context next season as well, and they have been fantastic so far.

Coming into the league, Giddey was billed as a jumbo point guard with great positional size. With the Oklahoma City Thunder, he never really got to grow in this role simply because of team construction and the names ahead of him in the pecking order. A lot was made of him getting traded to the Chicago Bulls straight up for Alex Caruso, but if he’s used at all like he is being used with Australia, Bulls fans should be very excited. With Australia, Giddey has been on-ball far more than he ever was with the Thunder. This has reminded us of how fantastic a playmaker he is and how effortlessly he can get to the rim.

Daniels has also thrived and looks to be a fascinating fit with the Atlanta Hawks. The big thing with Daniels on this Australia team compared to his time with the New Orleans Pelicans is that we’re simply getting to see him play. Daniels’s defense has been devastatingly good. On offense, he’s playing mostly off-ball and has shown some confidence shooting from outside, an ability to attack the rim, good off-ball movement, and impressive playmaking. If Daniels can carry over this level of play, he could be a terrific fit next to Trae Young.

O Canada

This is the best team Canada has ever had, and yet I still find myself worried about them. I freely admit that that’s a ridiculous thing to say about a team that just went 3-0 with a +20-point differential against Australia, Greece, and Spain. Let’s start with the good, though, because it’s more fun and far outweighs the bad.

Holy shit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is good.

I know this isn’t a revelation, but he is easily one of the most enjoyable players in the world to watch. The way that he gets to his spots is exceptionally rare. Few players have his level of footwork, strength, balance, and craft. When he drives, he gets so low that his knees nearly hit the floor. This allows him to change speeds and directions in ways that few players can keep up with. He does all of that while also being a menace on the defensive end, where he’s, at times, their third or fourth-best perimeter defender. That’s insane, and a major testament to how much perimeter talent is on this team.

Being able to start Gilgeous-Alexander with Luguentz Dort, RJ Barrett, and Dillon Brooks gives Canada one of the most impressive perimeter defenses and rotations in the tournament. That glut of talent has forced fantastic players like Jamal Murray, Andrew Nembhard, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to the bench. On paper, that’s why this team is so exciting and fun. It’s also where I start to get concerned about them, though.

If you noticed, I have yet to mention a big. Well, that’s because the centers on Canada are Dwight Powell, Kelly Olynyk, and Khem Birch—not exactly the names you’d expect to be paired with the perimeter talent we just ran through. Canada’s lack of size gave them issues in the group stage at times, and it could pose a real problem in their next game against France, who kind of has the opposite concern with only competent bigs and a lack of perimeter players.

This lack of size means that the margin for error for the perimeter players is essentially nonexistent. Overall, the starters, mainly Gilgeous-Alexander and Barrett, were very good. It’s the bench (Murray, Nembhard, and Alexander-Walker) that’s been the concern. Thankfully, Nembhard came up huge in their last nail-biter of a game against Spain with 18 points. Before that, though, he was averaging just 3.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 2.5 turnovers while shooting 2-7 overall and 1-3 from three. Meanwhile, Murray is averaging 5.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 2.0 turnovers while shooting 33.3% overall and 10% from three. Additionally, Alexander-Walker has scored one point and secured three rebounds. All of those numbers came in their last game against Spain. Alexander-Walker has yet to make a shot (0-8) or record an assist, steal, or block. We know that those three players are so much better than those numbers suggest, but if Canada is going to make a medal run, they need to show up soon.

Sacre Bleu

This French team has unfortunately been the biggest disappointment of the entire tournament and are experiencing the opposite of the concerns that I voiced with Canada. France is going with the twin tower starting lineup with both Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert. Overall, both of those guys have played really well. Gobert has been pretty rough on offense as he still can’t catch anything and trips over himself, but his defense has been very good. With Wembanyama, it’s tough to find any gripes. He’s scoring efficiently, rebounding at a high rate, moving the ball, playing with passion, and averaging 4.7 stocks per game. There have been long stretches where he’s singlehandedly taken over and shifted the momentum of the game. The only issue with these two players is when they sit them at the same time. Big-time no-no.

The concern with this team is that no one outside of Wembanyama can consistently create a quality look or knock down shots. Nicolas Batum and Frank Ntilikina have shot it fine, but they are both exclusively spot-up shooters who are relatively easy to defend. Bilal Coulibaly’s usage is nonexistent, and Guerschon Yabusele is going through a cold streak. That kind of just leaves Evan Fournier. Unfortunately for France, Fournier’s offense has been a struggle as he’s shooting 32.1% on 9.4 attempts overall, and 35.7% on 4.7 attempts from three.

There isn’t anyone on this French team who can consistently create quality looks for themselves or for others except for their 7’4” 20-year-old power forward. Wembanyama is more than capable of taking over games on his own, but with the teams that are left, he has to get some help if France hopes to medal. For a team that has the most exciting young player in the world and a history of great basketball, this team has been shockingly disappointing.

Franz, So Hot Right Now

Saying that a player who just signed a $224-million contract is good isn’t exactly a hot take. Franz Wagner is playing like that contract could be a bargain, though. Wagner still isn’t shooting great from outside; with the way that he’s playing, though, it doesn’t really matter. Wagner is playing like the game is incredibly slow and easy for him right now. His two-way impact was one of the biggest reasons that Germany won the last FIBA World Cup and why they’re looking like the second-best team in the tournament.

On defense, Wagner can defend anyone. He’s switching nearly everything, moving his feet, rotating from the weak side, and being an absolute menace on the ball. Offensively, Wagner looks like he’s leveled up. His playmaking is crisp and confident. When he runs the pick-and-roll, he is constantly putting defenders in hell and making the right decision. The way his rim pressure has improved over the years is astounding. Few players, especially at his size, move like he does when he gets downhill. He does such a fantastic job of mixing up his speed, stride length, finishing angles, and direction that he’s becoming nearly impossible to defend inside the arc. A lot was made after his contract about his shooting struggles. It would be great if he turns into a terrific shooter. Even if he doesn’t, though, Wagner is showing us that he thrives in every other facet of the game.

The Beauty of South Sudan

There has been plenty of really good reporting and story telling on this team that I suggest you go seek out, but it felt wrong not to at least mention South Sudan. South Sudan is the youngest country in the world and this team was funded mostly by former NBA wing Luol Deng. South Sudan unfortunately got eliminated after a loss to Serbia where Serbia had 25 more free throw attempts. That’s a tough margin, but it shouldn’t detract from how cool of a story this team is. Full of fringe NBA players and pros from overseas and being essentially privately funded, it’s incredible that this team even qualified. Hopefully, they’re able to get funding going forward and we don’t see a similar issue as we saw with the Nigerian team from a few years ago. Regardless, they were one of the best stories of these Olympics.

Predictions

Now that we’re in the knockout stage, might as well make some predictions. The first quarter-final matchup is Germany vs Greece. It’s tough to put anything past Antetokounmpo, but I think Germany will walk away with this one. They will then face Canada who will send the host country France packing. On the other side of the bracket, I think Jokic proves to be too much and powers Serbia past a feisty Australia team. Serbia will then get a rematch against the USA who will roll over Brazil.

In the semi-finals, USA yet again pulls away from Serbia. Jokic will keep it close in the first half, but the overwhelming talent, size, and athleticism of the USA team will be too much in the second half. The USA will then move on to face Germany in the finals after Germany barely gets past Canada. Canada’s lack of size and inconsistencies off the bench prove to be too much as Wagner outduels Gilgeous-Alexander.

In the medal games, Canada wins the bronze medal after beating Serbia. It will be close and Jokic will put up monster numbers, but Canada’s guards will finally have a big game off the bench. That leaves the USA going home with the gold medal over Germany in a double-digit win. The USA will be eager to avenge their loss from the FIBA World Cup and will pull away in the second half behind big performances from James, Durant, and Davis.