2025-26 Big 12 Conference Preview
The No Ceilings team continues their annual tradition of Conference Previews, today with the Big 12.
The start of the college basketball season is right around the corner, as the NBA season begins tonight. While some of the top overseas prospects have already started their seasons internationally, the NCAA players are working through their exhibition games before the 2025-26 season officially begins.
Before that, though, we’re diving deep into the 2026 NBA Draft class with our traditional conference preview roundtables. Without further ado, here is our third conference roundtable on the Big 12.
Enjoy, No Ceilings family!
1. Ignore “consensus” boards and Twitter groupthink. Who is the best NBA prospect in this conference?
Rucker: (In Fight Club tone…) His name is Darryn Peterson. The hype is real folks. Sit back and enjoy the ride. Peterson has the two-way versatility to be a very bad man this year on the court. The bigger question is who will step up alongside him to make Kansas a legit threat once again…
Maxwell: Darryn Peterson. I love the defense. There aren’t a lot of guards with that type of ground coverage, pop off the floor, and reactive foot speed. Then offensively, sheesh. Super tricky movement patterns, comfortability pulling up, and an ever-improving ability to read the floor. There are some finer details that could stand to improve, like his takeoff point on drives and poise against double teams. But I think all in all, he’s a two-way force cut out for the modern game.
Jam: Darryn Peterson. He’s not just the best prospect in the Big 12, he’s the best and most complete prospect in the country. Peterson is close as it gets to a prototypical lead guard prospect. Size, strength, ball skills, three-level scoring, tough shotmaking, playmaking ability, and defensive upside. It’s this beautiful marriage of dynamic physical tools and an advanced skillset that gives him both a high floor and ceiling, which is exactly what you want and the top of the draft.
Metcalf: Darryn Peterson.
Stephen: Is there an echo in here? It’s Darryn Peterson with a bullet.
Corey: It’s Darryn Peterson for me and there’s actually a pretty wide gap, even with AJ Dyabantsa in the conference. Peterson is the goods. He’s a truly special guard prospect—one of the best that we’ve seen in the last 20 years. He scores at all three levels, he makes his teammates better, and he guards his ass off. The complete package.
Jacob: I mean, come on. It’s Darryn Peterson, and it’s not relatively close. He’s possibly the best guard prospect of the decade, being the favorite to go one in June. Physically, he checks all the boxes for a guard prospect. Equipped with a wiry frame and quick-twitch athleticism, Peterson manipulates the space around him with ease. Sharp playmaking instincts complement his dominant three-level scoring. Among some of the most impressive point-of-attack defense I’ve ever seen from a guard prospect. On top of the polished skill set, Peterson just has it. The swagger, the intensity, the mentality. Likely not a reality where another Big 12 prospect passes him.
Rowan: It’s clearly Kansas’s Darryn Peterson for me, given he’s one of three players in serious consideration for the top spot this year. Peterson’s athletic profile is one of the best in recent memory from a guard prospect, but it’s completely functional to the success of his game. He’s a polished scorer from every spot on the floor, skillfully creates for himself and others at will, and has a knack for raising his game in the biggest moments. While there’s some case to be made for AJ Dybantsa, Peterson is my clear-cut choice in the Big 12.
Nathan: This answer isn’t even close. Darryn Peterson is not only the best prospect in the Big 12, but he’s one of the best prospects in the country. A 6’5” guard who can operate on the ball, connect on contested pull-up jumpers, and finish at the basket with ease by just gliding past everyone? Not to mention everything I continue to hear about Peterson is he’s a relentless worker and someone who is as determined to show up on defense as he is offense. Peterson has scary upside as a modern guard, so I’ll have my eyes on him all season long.
Nick: Yeah, it’s Darryn Peterson. I’m not the only person who has him at the top of my board for the 2026 NBA Draft; since I do, it’s pretty obvious that he’d be the top pick for me in whatever conference the team he chose to play for this season happened to be heading into the 2025-26 college basketball season.
2. Admittedly, one of the most satisfying parts of analyzing the draft is being able to look back and say, “Psh, about time you guys took notice of him. I’ve been hyping him up for ages.” Who is the prospect that you are irrationally high on?
Rucker: Man…I think Arizona incoming freshman Dwayne Aristode absolutely rocks. This is one of my guys I’m going to bat for, and I’m extremely proud that my co-host Tyler Metcalf has bought in as well. The more I’ve watched Aristode, the more I fall in love. He’s listed at 6’8”, 220 and he plays bigger than that. There’s explosiveness and bad intentions when he gets downhill. Then you see he’s got legit floor spacing upside with a consistent good looking shot from beyond the arc. Aristode checks a lot of boxes rather quickly. While plenty are looking at some other big-name freshman at Arizona, I think Aristode is going to get everyone’s attention rather quickly. The tools are legit.
Maxwell: I gotta go with my guy Joshua Jefferson out of Iowa State on this one. I think there’s a real chance that the 6’8” forward ends up being the primary hub of the Cyclone’s offense this season. He’s an unreal passer on the move. Defensively, he’s got everything you could ask for—a pro frame, elite instincts off the ball, and strong fundamentals. He needs to find an area of the floor where he can score consistently, preferably behind the arc. But I think this is the year everyone finally realizes, “oh wow, this giant dude is an intellectual juggernaut.”
Jam: LeJuan Watts. He consistently popped alongside Cedric Coward at both Eastern Washington and Washington State before breaking out last season in Coward’s unfortunate injury absence At 6’6”, his versatile and connective skillset on both ends of the floor is appealing on the NBA level and will be a significant boost to Texas Tech’s chase for the national championship. Despite needing and hoping to see more three-point volume (42% 3P mark on 1.9 3PA), I’m invested in Watt’s 3-and-D, swiss army knife profile. I have Watts with a late first round grade to enter the season.
Metcalf: I’ve been hyping him up all summer so it’d be weird to go with anyone other than Dwayne Aristode. I buy the shot long term, am really encouraged with some of his passing stuff, and am absolutely in love with his defense. He has all the tools to be the best wing defender in this class. His two-way versatility combined with his physical tools give me a lot of OG Anunoby vibes. He’s the exact type of wing that we constantly see pop up on every championship caliber team for the last 25 years.
Stephen: I have to go with Shon Abaev here. I understand that he may not be everything I hope (and think) he can but. BUT, if he is, Abaev could be a jumbo creator who can make shots at every level. I’m a sucker for players who are 6’8” who play with the sort of feel Shon has. He slithers his way to his spots with relative ease, and has a bevy of moves he can go to to get you some points. He finds teammates at a good level. Don’t ask me about his defensive film–because it’s not great. BUT if he can learn to buy in a little more and use his natural gifts, he can be a solid contributor on that end as well. If it all clicks (stop me if you’ve heard that before), Abaev has crazy upside.
Corey: I’m a Shon Abaev guy. He first popped up on my radar during the 2024 Basketball Without Borders and then again when I saw him at a Under Armour Elite 24 practice. Everywhere he’s been, he’s been about a bucket, and at 6’8” with the way that he shoots and scores the ball, he’s bound to turn some heads. The cool part about his game is that he’s also a pretty adept playmaker who is capable of spraying the ball all over the floor. I’m not wild about his defense, but I’d be more concerned if he was 6’3” instead of 6’8”. Cincinnati has some dudes, but Abaev looks poised to be THE dude for the Bearcats. Honorable mention to Tounde Yessefou who we’ve been hyping up for a while.
Jacob: There’s a surplus of guys I considered here, but ultimately landed on Brayden Burries. A lot of people have been jumping ship as of late. Look, I get the scare. He’s old for a freshman and may be caught between guard roles. I refuse to give up. For most of his career, he’s been a high-functioning offensive player. Burries’ ability to penetrate the paint and play off two feet is rare for a guard his age. He’s got one of the smoothest jumpers in the class, and it extends way beyond the three-point line. At the rim, Burries embraces and absorbs contact, converting tough finishes. He’ll also use his length and coordination to slither past a defender downhill. The defensive game needs polishing up, especially off-ball. But, like on offense, he isn’t afraid to get physical and get in a guy’s grill. There’s a good chance Arizona’s two best players this year are freshmen.
Rowan: I was certainly not the first No Ceilings member to be in on Cincinnati’s Shon Abaev, but I’m glad I won’t be the last one in the draft community at large. There aren’t many more polished freshman scorers in the nation, given Abaev’s slick ball-handling, consistent mid-range pull-up game, and his dogged drive to get to his spots. It may take a few games before he has a breakout game, but when he does, don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Nathan: I’m dangerously high on Arizona’s Koa Peat, and I’m not backing down now. A mismatch forward at 6’7” and over 230 pounds, Peat has that grown man strength that you can’t teach at his age. He bulldozes through smaller opponents, and has the type of footwork and mid-range game that can throw bigger forwards off balance. Peat has passing chops on the move, and his instincts as a defensive playmaker and help defender are solid. I do want to see Peat make some sort of stride as a jump shooter from beyond the arc. He needs to answer some questions about how he holds up on the perimeter against guards with the ball in their hands, as well as centers down low. Still, there’s a world where Peat becomes a five-tool player in the NBA that can support teams in several ways, similar to the newest member of the Toronto Raptors in Collin Murray-Boyles. Peat is a winner and uber competitor, I’ll bet on him preseason as one of the better prospects in the 2026 class.
Nick: I’ve been really high on Tounde Yessoufou since his shining performance at Hoop Summit, and I’m not about to step away from that hype now. He’s already built like an NBA player, and he attacks the basket with force in a way that few players can match. Defensively, he’s a menace at the point of attack; he also easily disrupts plays in the passing lanes and jumpstarts transition opportunities at an elite level. He’ll need to show a bit more as a shooter to climb as high in everyone else’s estimations as he is in mine, but I’m all-in on him continuing Baylor’s long line of Top 10 guards in recent drafts.
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3. Unfortunately, there are two sides to that coin, and they do not have equal probabilities. Which prospect do you like but think has the most likely chance of failing to meet expectations?
Rucker: This question is always tough, especially with a conference that features so many exciting prospects. When it comes to failing to meet expectations, I’m going to go with Houston freshman Chris Cenac Jr. Now…this is not saying I don’t like Cenac, because man are the flashes fun. But, this could be a situational thing in which Cenac doesn’t post the numbers some might be “dreaming of” when it comes to a preseason lottery big man. Cenac has some instances in which he looks like one of the most talented players in this class. But the consistency is going to need to come around. Houston does a fantastic job of holding their players accountable and developing them the right way. If Cenac buys into playing their style, I think it could do him wonders for his NBA potential. But if he does that, it might not be as “sexy” to some when it comes to the production and hype. The film will tell a bigger story for Cenac this year.
Maxwell: There’s a scene in the movie Role Models where Augie is asked if he likes to drink Coke, and he says, “I like the idea of it more than I actually like it.” That’s where I’m at with Chris Cenac Jr. He’s big, he can move, and he’s got touch. That’s awesome! But the more film I watch, the more concerned I get about his subpar ball skills, physicality, and inconsistency on defense. I’m not entirely sure what his one, go-to NBA-level skill is, and that’s always scary. Plus, Houston just has so much talent that they don’t need him to hit, which means he might not get to play through his issues this year.
Jam: I’ll join the line on Chris Cenac here. I just believe the top five to ten expectations are a little premature at this stage because of his potential adjustment period to a different initial role with Houston and a lack of ideal usage. There is no denying Cenac’s immense upside though. The tools and evolving skillset form the foundation of a stretch five rim protector with ball skills and shotmaking upside.
Metcalf: Koa Peat is going to give me a headache all year. His tools rock and all he’s really ever done is win. I still just don’t get it though. Theoretically, Peat is an awesome role player who could grow into an Aaron Gordon-esque player with his athleticism, defense, rebounding, and connective passing. Unfortunately, Peat’s jumper feels a long ways off, his passing reads are inconsistent, his defense is inconsistent at best, and I worry about how his physicality will translate as he continues moving up levels. Now, with his defense, it did look significantly better in a more structured setting with Team USA than it did in high school. I’m still clinging to that hope that we see it take a major jump with Arizona, but if it doesn’t, then I’m really going to struggle with him.
Stephen: I hate that I have arrived at this conclusion, but I think it’s Joseph Tugler–who many have in their “Best Returners” category. In a lot of ways, “JoJo” is my kind of player. He’s physically there in terms of being able to handle the rigors of the NBA. He’s also a highly intelligent defender. However, I don’t know what he does on offense in the NBA. He isn’t a high volume or versatile passer, and is a low-volume/low-efficiency shooter. The NBA hasn’t treated this type of player kindly, with Houston alum, Jarace Walker, serving as a prime example. “Small Ball Five” has quietly fallen out of favor with the “Double Big” resurgence. This sort of caps what players like Tugler can be at the next level.
Corey: I’m in wait and see mode with Chris Cenac. I love the physical tools and some of the skills at a listed 6’11”. I buy the shooting and actually think he’s a crafty passer. The rest of his game is a little raw though. His turnovers stem from trying to do too much as a shot creator, he’s switchable but doesn’t consistently protect the rim despite his length, and he struggles to finish at the rim in the halfcourt. Those are all pretty requisite big men skills. The cool thing about his season as a prospect though is that we’ll probably know early on which direction it’s going to go. If he is playing consistent minutes for a loaded Houston squad that is seeking a championship then things should be going really well! If his minutes are sporadic then we’ll know he’s probably more of a long term prospect. With all that said, there’s a lot to like and I’m hoping we see him ball out.
Jacob: Don’t get me wrong, Chris Cenac Jr has some absurd untapped potential. The size, length, and mobility are tantalizing. The flashes of on-ball scoring and shooting genuinely wow me. The question remains: can Cenac put it all together? Entering a culture like Houston should be beneficial for him, but with so many established veterans on the roster, his production will take a backseast. He’s entering a grueling Big 12, where his lack of physicality can be exposed. The measurables and fluidity to switch across positions are there, he consistently lapses and fails to show intensity. There’s a clear path for Cenac to be a first round pick, but there’s also a path he’s short of expectations.
Rowan: The freshman big man crop isn’t the best it’s been in recent years, which sadly may be a part of what leads Houston’s Chris Cenac Jr. to fall below some expectations. There will be a significant learning curve on defense for Cenac Jr. under Kelvin Sampson, given that the coach is reluctant to give many of his young players extensive minutes. That, plus his offensive warts and tendency to float on the perimeter, could lead to a season all too similar to Kel’el Ware’s nightmare freshman campaign at Oregon.
Nathan: I haven’t understood the NBA case for JoJo Tugler dating back to last season, and I can’t envision myself coming around to it this cycle either. He’s one of the most important players for Houston, as he fits Kelvin Sampson’s identity as a coach perfectly. Versatile defender, long as hell, and is an absolute pain-in-the-rear to try and score over. He pounds the glass on both ends of the floor, and plays with a chip on his shoulder. But what can he do offensively besides dunk? Can he drive in traffic? Is he a post scorer at the next level? We have no sense of the type of passer that he can be or threat to score outside of five feet. I bought the Jonathan Mogbo case when he was a fast riser, but Mogbo had more skill with the ball and shooting priors than Tugler, and even he will struggle to find minutes with the Toronto Raptors moving forward. I hope I’m wrong and Tugler blow us all out of the water, but I’m skeptical of his case as a prospect.
Nick: I do really like Chris Cenac Jr. as a long term prospect, but I’m not sure that he’ll be able to live up to expectations in his first college season. While I think playing for Kelvin Sampson will be fantastic for his outlook going forward, I think that he’ll have a lot to learn in Year One. He has the talent to go out and succeed right away, but I think that he’s more likely to be a top pick in the 2027 NBA Draft than he is to be one in this year’s class.
4. The shiny new thing is always the most enticing to go after, but there is always a ton of value in older prospects. Based on their previous college seasons, which returning player are you most excited to watch and has the best NBA potential?
Rucker: Texas Tech guard Christian Anderson is going to be the pick here for me. Anderson is thin-framed but plays the game with some fascinating multi-level scoring ability. There’s just some natural ability as a guard and he’s coming off a fantastic summer with some impressive play during FIBA competition. Anderson has the goods to take a legit leap for the Red Raiders this year and he’s going to have a talented squad running alongside him. He should be a fun one to watch progress throughout the year.
Maxwell: I’m really excited to see JoJo Tugler’s continued development. On defense he is “The Everything Deterrent.” Smaller guys can’t beat him on the perimeter, he blocks everything around the basket, and he can get into passing lanes. He’s elite on that side of the ball. Still, he’s a super raw offensive player with subpar ball skills and a missing jump shot. Because he’s so great defensively, though, you can’t write him off. I’m fascinated to see if he can add to his offensive game this year with some turnover in Houston’s front court.
Jam: Christian Anderson. He’s poised to leverage his stellar summer and experience on the Germany’s FIBA U19 World Cup and EuroBasket teams into another monster leap. Already a gifted shooter and skilled shot creator, the early returns on the playmaking growth appear to be very real and if that’s the case, look out. Everything is there for Anderson to solidify at least first round status while leading Texas Tech’s title hopes.
Metcalf: Emanuel Sharp rocks. I’d be pretty surprised if he got drafted, simply because of his size and age, but he’s so good. Even though he is a little smaller than you’d hope for, he’s really strong and an excellent defender. If the shot continues to be lethal along with his defense, I think he’ll surprise a lot of people.
Stephen: LeJuan Watts is sort of playing in the shadows of what Cedric Coward was able to accomplish in an injury-riddled season. Watts transferring from Washington State to Texas Tech puts him on a team that has very competent guard play, and strong production from its frontcourt. LeJuan is a fairly versatile player that could be featured in various roles with the Red Raiders–including as an on-ball or off-ball threat. At 6’6” and 225 pounds, Watts fits the sort of player NBA teams will likely value. It’s just up to evaluators to catch up!
Corey: Man, this is such a loaded prospect conference and I want to choose like ten guys. My honorable mention is going to be Cam Carr at Baylor. I liked him a lot coming out of Link and it just didn’t work out at Tennessee, but maybe a change of scenery puts him back on the radar. My actual choice is going to be Emmanuel Sharp from Houston. When Albert and I broke down film with Jamal Shead a couple of years ago, I asked him who was the next pro out of Houston and he told me it was Sharp. While he didn’t end up entering the draft last season he did put up a big season where he shot the ever loving cover off the ball and put up some monster advanced stats. Houston dudes are coached up to play the right way, compete their tails off, are in great physical shape, and know how to play a role. I believe there’s a spot in the league for Emmanuel Sharp.
Jacob: I’m all in on the Flory Bidunga jump this year, especially with Hunter Dickinson and KJ Adams off the team. Standing at 6’10”, 235lbs, Flory is a physical and athletic specimen. He plays with a relentless energy, finishes with authority, gets off the ground quick, and uses his boulder shoulders to his advantage. In his few games last season, he acted as an energy, above-the-rim threat. Now, in an elevated role, we’ll see his entire game. Darryn Peterson will be his PNR partner, meaning he’ll get the exact passes he needs to get to the rim. He’ll have to showcase growth as a short roll passer, finding open guys on cuts or the perimeter off his dives to the rim.
Rowan: If you were asking me, which you are, I thought that Texas Tech’s JT Toppin was a first round draft prospect last season. Few players in the country were as relentless on the glass, driving to the rim, or contesting shots as Toppin was for the Red Raiders. While it was the 2025 draft class’s loss not to have Toppin in it, the 2026 class will benefit from an even more mature and polished version of last year’s Big 12 Player of the Year.
Nathan: You heard it here first: Christian Anderson is a lottery-level guard prospect in the 2026 NBA Draft. Dating back to high school, Anderson was a lethal shooter both on and off the ball. Despite having some questions due to his thin frame, Anderson converted incredibly well around the basket and was rated by Synergy as one of the best players in terms of efficiency in EYBL play. As a freshman at Texas Tech, Anderson commanded reps early on as a starter and/or closer, and really had some nice moments. This past summer in FIBA play, Anderson answered questions regarding whether he has the ball-handling and passing chops to play point guard full-time, and he was an awesome on-ball defender in pick-and-roll sets. Anderson has continued to grow and fill out his frame, while retaining all of the elements that made him a pro-level guard prospect in the first place. Look for Anderson to have a big year in Lubbock and cement his case as a 2026 prospect.
Nick: Like Rowan, I also am going with JT Toppin here. He’s bounced in and out of the first round on my board for a couple of seasons now, and I fully expect him to come back and once again maul the glass and dunk over the rest of the Big 12 for another award-filled season.
5. Whether it’s Anthony Edwards dropping 37 points against Michigan State, or Austin Rivers ripping the heart out of UNC fans, or De’Aaron Fox vs. Lonzo Ball, fans are provided with mesmerizing matchups and performances every season. Which matchup, whether team vs. team, player vs. player, or player vs. team, are you most looking forward to watching?
Rucker: Just clear your calendars on January 31st. You have a date with the couch. Kansas vs BYU. Darryn Peterson vs AJ Dybantsa.
Maxwell: It’s Peterson vs. Dybantsa. Two projected top three picks. Let’s not get cute with it.
Jam: February 21st, Cincinnati and Kansas. Shon Abaev, a top 10 prospect on my board, leads Cincinnati into the “Phog” against the presumptive first overall selection, Darryn Peterson. I fully expect both to embrace the matchup. A potential big man matchup between Moustapha Thiam and Flory Bidunga brings plenty of intrigue as well.
Metcalf: AJ vs Darryn. Anytime those two face off in the coming years it’ll be appointment viewing.
Stephen: January 31st. Darryn Peterson vs. AJ Dybantsa. Two perimeter players. One a former #1 recruit. The other? The recruit that upended him. Revenge game? Game with the most Draft implications? Do I need to ask more questions?!
Corey: The last time that Darryn Peterson and AJ Dybantsa lined up across from one another they combined for 109 points…in a 36 minute high school game. Darryn hung 61 on Utah Prep and AJ went off for 48. I’d very much like to see another duel of that caliber.
Jacob: I’ll piggyback what everyone else is saying and go with Kansas vs BYU on January 31st. I consider both teams in the same tier, however the spotlight will be on AJ Dybantsa vs Darryn Peterson. Every duel between the two has been pure entertainment, and I don’t expect that to change on the collegiate level.
Rowan: Texas Tech has set itself up a nice non-conference schedule, but its first big test against Illinois might be the most intriguing for me. The Fighting Illini are built around a deep veteran core of European studs, which makes them one of the best teams the Red Raiders will face all year. It’ll be telling how well JT Toppin and Christian Anderson Jr. can match up against players of similar skill to them, as that could inform how they play once they get to March Madness.
Nathan: I’ll be in person for both Kansas vs. Duke and Texas Tech vs. Duke in Madison Square Garden early in the season. It’ll be a great test to see both Darryn Peterson and Christian Anderson go up against a defender that can scale down the lineup like Dame Sarr. Caydon Boozer on the Blue Devils has defensive potential as well given his frame and strength profile. Both guards will have every chance to make their own highlight plays, and set up teammates for critical looks in games I expect to be close contests.
Nick: Kansas vs. Duke. The #1 player on my board in Darryn Peterson facing off against the #2 player on my board in Cam Boozer. I can’t wait to dive in to that one.