2025-26 Mid-Major Conferences Preview
The No Ceilings crew wraps up their traditional conference roundtables by previewing some of the top 2026 NBA Draft prospects outside of the premier conferences.
The start of the college basketball season is right around the corner, and the NBA season is now fully underway. While some of the top overseas prospects have already started their seasons internationally, the NCAA players are working through their exhibition games before the 2025-26 season officially begins.
Before that, though, we’re diving deep into the 2026 NBA Draft class with our traditional conference preview roundtables. Without further ado, here is our final roundtable on all of the draft prospects outside of the five premier conferences we’ve covered in the series.
Enjoy, No Ceilings family!
1. Ignore “consensus” boards and Twitter groupthink. Who is the best NBA prospect outside of the top conferences?
Maxwell: I think Tyrone Riley IV is the best long-term mid-major prospect in the country. For starters, he’s an excellent athlete. But what makes that matter is that he’s also a high-motor hustler who we know is willing to embrace a role. He’s a big-time rebounder, capable defender, and sharp cutter. His ball skills and jump shot do need to come along, but he’s been a solid decision-maker thus far, and I think he knows how to play.
Metcalf: Someone is bound to emerge, but the way that the power conferences eat up talent now with the transfer portal, Tyrone Riley IV is the clear choice for me. One of the few guys who decided to stay, and I hope that means we’ll get way more usage and offensive versatility from him this year.
Stephen: Tyrone Riley IV has gained a lot of momentum coming into the season, and rightfully so. As a freshman with the San Francisco Dons, Riley flashed a ton of athleticism and grew more confident with his offense. I would really like to see more of an on-ball role this season, as that would help clarify if his best position is Guard or Wing. Returning to The Bay had to have come with some assurances as to what role he’ll take on. Should he produce at a high level on the ball–and maintain his off-ball and defensive production–we really can’t rule out a lottery range outcome for Tyrone in the 2026 NBA Draft.
Rowan: There were multiple attempts to spring San Diego State’s Magoon Gwath to pastures with greener dollar signs, but Gwath stayed true to the school that recruited him hardest. That’s a major boon for the Aztecs, as Gwath is a fearsome presence in the paint with a lot of room to grow. His hulking frame helps him swallow up rebounds, swat shots away, and finish through contact. That’s not to mention his improving shooting touch and untapped athletic profile, which could lead to even greater heights for Gwath, the team, and his draft stock.
Nick: Magoon Gwath quickly went from a zero-star prospect to a potential draft pick after his stellar redshirt freshman season for San Diego State. He’s returning for another season to solidify his reputation as the rare 7-footer with shooting touch, defensive mobility, and absurd block rates. If he can fill into a bigger usage role offensively and prove his capabilities as a shooter with a steady three-point percentage on higher volume, he could cement a place for himself in the Green Room for the 2026 NBA Draft.
2. Admittedly, one of the most satisfying parts of analyzing the draft is being able to look back and say, “Psh, about time you guys took notice of him. I’ve been hyping him up for ages.” Who is the prospect that you are irrationally high on?
Maxwell: Give me Eian Elmer at Miami Ohio. I got into him after watching him against Michigan last season. He’s long and fluid, which has allowed him to register a ton of stocks. Offensively, he’s made over 40% of his threes in back-to-back seasons. There’s a really clear 3-and-D outline here. But what has me particularly optimistic is that I thought he got considerably better as a ball handler and decision maker last season. He’s got some wiggle and footwork with his handle, and he’s processing the game quicker. I think there’s a real chance he goes from “3-and-D” to “dribble-pass-shoot-and-D,” and if he does, he’s off to the races.
Metcalf: Remember the name Nolan Minessale from St. Thomas. I got to see him in person a few times last year, and he was always the most impressive player on the court, even though he was never the guy I made the trip to see. He’s an awesome defender who has no issues bullying bigger players. On offense, he’s a terrific cutter, great at getting to the rim, and a smart passer. The big question is: what does the shot look like? Last year, it was really slow and robotic, kind of like he was in the process of overhauling it. If there’s any sort of consistency, or even more willingness, his game is going to take a big leap.
Stephen: Max Green at Northwestern. I’m not sure if this “counts” as a mid-major, but if Gonzaga counts, then so do my beloved Wildcats. On top of that, Max is coming from High Point, so he’s essentially a low/mid-major player. Really, I just want a reason to talk about Green–who will be 20 years old should he enter the draft. Max is 6’6” and created a ton of offense off the bounce for High Point as a freshman. He also shot the ever-loving-heck out of the ball, at about 39% on over 10 attempts per 100 possessions. He also posted an Assist Percentage over 20. If I were to tell you that there was a 6’6” wing who shoots almost 40% from deep on high volume, who could create off of the bounce, and will be the same age as Mikel Brown Jr. this season…would you not have that player on your draft board? Me too.
Rowan: His name has floated around international circles for quite some time, but I’m psyched to see Mario Saint-Suprey end up at Gonzaga. He’ll have some learning to do athletically, but his speed, floor game, and flair for the impressive are all parts of what make Saint-Suprey a top-tier point guard prospect. This Zags team is missing some offensive juice on the perimeter now that Khalif Battle has finally graduated from college, and Saint-Suprey should be able to bring that with gusto.
Nick: I can’t claim to be anywhere near the first person to pick up on it, but Tyrone Riley IV had some stellar moments during his freshman year with the San Francisco Dons. His explosiveness and defensive chops are impressive; if he can show more in an expanded role this year, he could quickly go from under the radar to first round pick candidate.
Subscribe to No Ceilings on YouTube:
3. Unfortunately, there are two sides to that coin, and they do not have equal probabilities. Which prospect do you like but think has the most likely chance of failing to meet expectations?
Maxwell: I hate to say it, because I am personally optimistic, but I do worry about Magoon Gwath to an extent. For transparency, I have him as a first round guy. But the combination of his wiry frame, subpar rebounding numbers, and inconsistent passing gives him little room for error if the jumper slips at all. I’d have him as a firm top-twenty guy if I could get assurance on those issues.
Metcalf: I really struggle to understand the Miles Byrd love. I’m hoping he takes the leap this year, but he feels like an idea guy. The defensive playmaking numbers were absurd last year, but that’s also because he jumped at everything. He consistently got in foul trouble and left his teammates out to dry after gambling for steals. Unfortunately, until he can consistently make a jumper, it’s going to be tough for me to buy in.
Stephen: I feel like this dude will get piled on in this section due to how hard it is for a mid-major player to come in with high expectations. That said, I’m picking Miles Byrd. I was a Byrd fan last season, and I had him 21st on my board last May. Upon further review of his film, I have soured on him and his pro outlook. Considering he’ll be 22 coming into this NBA season (should he get drafted), I am not a fan of how thin he is. For a player who shot a ton of threes, he wasn’t very efficient (understand there may have been some injury things going on). Where my larger concerns lie is his defense. For a player who received a ton of his value based on his defense, Byrd gambles a lot. When he hits on those decisions, it looks awesome. When he misses, he puts a ton of pressure on his team to cover for him. Also, with the strength deficit, the way he plays has a low probability of translating up to the league. This really hurts him because he isn’t a tremendous offensive talent.
Rowan: I wanted to like San Diego State’s Miles Byrd, but the more I dug into his game, the more I questioned whether he could fit at the NBA level without major changes. Byrd flirted with declaring last season, but chose to return for another go at being an offensive star for the Aztecs. Although he seems to have put on weight, there’s no guarantee that Byrd’s changes will lead him to be a more efficient shooter, which is the last piece of his prospect puzzle to solve.
Nick: Miles Byrd got off to a hot shooting start during the 2024 portion of the 2024-25 season, and I have to admit that I was really sold, given his excellent defensive profile. Then, he went ice-cold after the calendar turned over, and the holes started to show through. I’m worried about swinging back too far in the other direction with him, but I’m concerned that his offensive game won’t be good enough to earn him playing time at the NBA level if he can’t become a real and consistent shooting threat.
4. The shiny new thing is always the most enticing to go after, but there is always a ton of value in older prospects. Based on their previous college seasons, which returning player are you most excited to watch and who has the best NBA potential?
Maxwell: Just to change it up from my prior answers, I’ll throw out Rafael Castro at George Washington. He’s a Top 60 year to start the year for me, and I think he’s being really overlooked. Castro is an excellent mover for a big man, which allows him to dunk everything on offense and cover ground like a wing on defense. What differentiates him from your standard “he can really move” big guy is his brain. Castro is a super sharp processor of the game who can really pass the ball. He’ll need to get stronger, and I’d like to see him be a more consistent defender in drop coverage. But he had a mammoth breakout campaign last year. He might just be scratching the surface. There simply aren’t that many dudes who are this tall, athletic, and skilled.
Metcalf: Mason Falslev is a bundle of fun—a dynamic shooter, smart playmaker, and sneaky defender. He makes Utah State a must-watch.
Stephen: I’m most excited to watch Rowan Brumbaugh, as his game is very much “We have Bennett Stirtz at home”. Rowan plays with so much gusto–throwing flashy and innovative passes, and putting up shots from the parking lot. He opted to stay at Tulane this season, which gives him comfort with a number of his teammates and some assurance of the sort of offense he will run. There is an equal probability that he is auditioning for higher-major college teams just as much as he is for the NBA this season, but this could be the year that has him high on “Way Too Early” mocks to kick off the 2027 NBA Draft Class Cycle.
Rowan: It may have only been one season, but the writing is on the wall for San Francisco’s Tyrone Riley IV; he’s on a meteoric upward rise. Riley IV’s a great wing athlete with good feel on both ends of the floor. He’s a smooth cutter off-ball, an improving shooter on-ball, and has the physical tools to lock down his opponents before beating them down the floor. I’m a fan of USF’s tournament chances and dark horse potential this year, most of which comes from my faith in Riley IV as a returning NBA prospect.
Nick: I wanted to cheat and say Magoon Gwath again, but I’ll go with Mason Falslev instead. He has a serious scoring arsenal and is a great defensive playmaker to boot. A strong enough season from him could make him the next Utah State prospect to join the NBA after Neemias Queta.
5. Whether it’s Anthony Edwards dropping 37 points against Michigan State, or Austin Rivers ripping the heart out of UNC fans, or De’Aaron Fox vs. Lonzo Ball, fans are provided with mesmerizing matchups and performances every season. Which matchup, whether team vs. team, player vs. player, or player vs. team, are you most looking forward to watching?
Maxwell: I’m going with George Washington vs. South Florida here, which we’ll actually get on the first Saturday of the season! George Washington has the aforementioned Rafael Castro, but they also have 6’8” sniper Garrett Johnson, intriguing guards Jean Aranguren and Christian Jones, and 3-and-D wing Bubu Benjamin. For South Florida, I’m quite fond of 3-and-D bomber Joseph Pinion. I’m also interested in rim-runner Izaiyah Nelson, elite guard defender CJ Brown, and D2 up-transfer Wes Enis. It’s as deep a collection of talent as you’ll find in a mid-major game all season, and we’re getting it early in the year.
Metcalf: San Diego State vs Arizona on December 20th. Both teams should have their concepts and rotations more set after a month of play, and it’ll be a fantastic test for Magoon Gwath and Miles Byrd to show how legit their draft stock is.
Stephen: I have some personal incentive to go with this game, but I cannot wait for Belmont vs. College of Charleston on November 30th! Charleston has Mister Dean, who really had a fun Freshman season at USC Upstate. They also added Colby Duggan. That’s right, the Campbell transfer! Belmont features Sam Orme, who has an underground fan base that is projecting some fun long term upside. They also have Tyler Lundblade returning. Lundblade is a 6’5” wing who shot a blistering 47% from deep on 14 threes per 100 possessions. This matchup is a Draft Sicko’s dream match.
Rowan: It’s hard to call San Diego State a mid-major these days, but I’ll cheat and count it. Their November 24th date against the Michigan Wolverines should be a fabulous, romping battle of the big men for both teams. The trio of Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara, and Morez Johnson Jr. should give Magoon Gwath all he can handle on the inside. At the same time, Miles Byrd will have a good opportunity to showcase his improved scoring against better competition. Sign me up for this clash between my alma mater and SDSU.
Nick: I’m going with San Diego State/Utah State on January 26th. Magoon Gwath and Miles Byrd trying to wall up one of the best scoring threats outside of the major conferences in Mason Falslev should be a good time.