2025 NBA Draft Lottery Preview: Dallas Mavericks

Tyler Metcalf and Jam Hines break down how lucky the Dallas Mavericks got in the lottery and why Cooper Flagg is the obvious choice with the first pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.

Metcalf: We’ll dive into some specifics and whatnot in a minute, but this is the clearest outcome in the entire draft. This pick should and will be Cooper Flagg, right? Please say right.

Jam: No doubt. If they could, that Dallas draft card for Flagg would have been sent immediately after the lottery. He’s one of the best two-way wing prospects in the last decade with a generational level type of work ethic. Flagg’s fit and impact on the Mavs is still kind of shocking to think about, considering their improbable leap to the first pick.

Metcalf: Alright, cool. Article over, that was easy. Ah, not quite. Flagg will be the pick, but I’m curious how you feel about Flagg’s fit. I think they could be insane on defense with him, Lively, and Davis. That’s an insane amount of length, athleticism, and defensive playmaking. I’m more curious how they’ll use him on offense. Obviously, the Irving injury throws a wrench into things. If he were healthy, Flagg would likely be used more as an off-ball guy. However, they have a pretty massive hole in their offensive creation right now. Could you see Flagg taking on more of a pseudo-point guard type of role this year, given how good of a passer he is and how much his on-ball creation improved last year?

Jam: Oh yes, absolutely. Getting the opportunity to handle the ball more with Irving out should ultimately prove beneficial to both Flagg’s development and Dallas’s championship ceiling (both short and long term). Being a primary handler and decision-maker was always the plan and path for Flagg. Irving’s absence allows him to tap into that aspect of his game sooner, learn/grow from his mistakes, and eventually become a legit primary handling option alongside Irving faster. We saw him progress all season as the primary handler and decision-maker for Duke while essentially sharing some of the point guard responsibilities with Kon Knueppel and Tyrese Proctor. His passing/playmaking for others is arguably his most underrated skill. From initiating offense to operating pick-and-rolls and smart connective passing, there is a ton to love about Flagg’s baseline playmaking and upside. Are you as bullish on Flagg’s passing and ability to share point guard duties?

Metcalf: For sure. I think his passing is criminally underrated. He does such an incredible job of getting paint touches, collapsing the defense, and making really intelligent reads. He typically just takes what the defense gives him, but he adds some flair every now and then, too, with no looks. I thought all year that he showcased a ton of versatility with dump-offs, kick-outs, and lobs that should translate very quickly. I don’t think I want him initiating everything all the time, but he could be incredibly valuable as a secondary creator pretty early.

It’s still insane to me that the Mavs got bailed out with the lottery, but it’s really important to remember that Flagg will still be a rookie who doesn’t turn 19 until the end of December. What are the realistic or reasonable expectations that we should be putting on him?

Jam: I think a reasonable expectation for Flagg this season is to produce a Rookie of the Year caliber season while being a significant member of a Mavericks core that’s competing for the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised to see him make significant in-season jumps in his development as he learns and grows from his mistakes, just like at Duke. There will be ups and downs, of course, but at season's end, I think we’ll look back at his rookie campaign and feel ecstatic about his progression into a perennial All-NBA two-way wing for the next decade plus. Are my expectations too high? Maybe too low?

Metcalf: I’m always a little more forgiving with rookies because that transition is so difficult. However, I think he should be a clear-cut contributor to a playoff team. He’s going to an incredible spot to mainly start with just doing the little things we typically see from role players and then build on those throughout the season to expand his game.

There’s a reason that I’ve called Flagg the best college prospect I’ve seen since Anthony Davis. While he doesn’t need to be an All-Star in his first year, I do think that they should make the playoffs next year, thanks to some of his contributions, not in spite of them. We both agree that Flagg is the obvious pick. However, this front office has recently proven that they’re fine with bucking expectations. I don’t think it’s even worth discussing another prospect at this spot, but are there any trades out there that’d make you even slightly consider moving the pick? We don’t need to dive into the nuances and exact value of the trade, but if you were offered Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Brown, etc., would you think about it?

Jam: If Giannis were a few years younger (31 years old), I would really consider it and likely push for it—depending on the pieces, of course. Other than that, I’m not messing with this gift from the basketball gods. Flagg presents a rare opportunity to select a two-way wing with a high floor and high upside in a situation where he doesn’t need to do too much, just be himself. He’s someone the Mavs believe can help extend their win-now championship window and be a long-term franchise player. Is there anyone out there who would make you consider moving the pick?

Metcalf: The only ones would be proven younger players, and none of those are even close to being available, so I won’t even bother throwing out names. I agree, though; given fit, team building, talent, and state of the fandom, Flagg is the easy choice here. The draft always has a factor of uncertainty, but Cooper Flagg threads that rare intersection of current talent, upside, and safe floor. Mavs fans went through a lot this year, but they should be incredibly excited about Cooper Flagg.