2025 NBA Draft Lottery Preview: Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers ended up with the #3 overall pick after a miserable season and a wild lottery; Nathan Grubel and Nick Agar-Johnson discuss some options for Philadelphia in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Nathan: The Philadelphia 76ers organization is in an intriguing spot, sitting at #3 overall in the 2025 NBA Draft. At one point, Daryl Morey and Co. were in a frenzy on lottery night with the possibility the pick wouldn’t even be theirs to make, given prior protections that could’ve conveyed it to the Oklahoma City Thunder (imagine THAT team with another lottery pick…SHEESH).
But the selection is Philadelphia’s to make, and now the majority of branches on the draft tree are tied to what the 76ers will do with the pick. There are as many as four, five, or six different players that could be options at three, BUT… we had some fascinating news spill through the rumor mill, Nick. It has been widely reported by trustworthy news sources at multiple outlets that the 76ers have engaged the San Antonio Spurs about the potential of trading up to #2 overall.
Whether this rumor actually has legs to it in terms of actually happening remains to be seen. I would imagine a hypothetical deal without any players/salaries involved would look something along the lines of the swapped picks, along with Philadelphia including an additional first round pick (Clippers 2028 swap or a 2030 first owned by the 76ers), along with another second round pick as added compensation. Presumably, all signs would point to Dylan Harper being the target of such a trade.
Nick, do you think it would be worth the 76ers trading up to the second spot in exchange for additional draft capital and/or assets? And do you think Harper fits what the 76ers are building towards in terms of contending both now and in the future?
Nick: This was a fascinating news dump for sure, Nathan, and a really interesting way to start off the draft talk for the 76ers. I will say this: I have been up front all year long about my belief in Dylan Harper. Our own Tyler Rucker wrote earlier this season about how Harper is not your typical consolation prize, and I couldn’t agree more. I think that there’s a significant gap between Harper and the players being discussed with the third overall pick; quite frankly, I think that gap might be wider than the gap between Harper and Cooper Flagg.
Harper’s numbers around the rim are preposterous. Even for a Rutgers team with terrible spacing and no offensive threats besides Harper and Ace Bailey, Harper still finished a ridiculous 67.6% of his shots around the basket on healthy volume–numbers that wouldn’t look out of place for a rim-running big man, much less a guard who was the main driver of his team’s offense and would have cleared 20 PPG if not for his decision to play through a mid-season illness.
As with all such discussions, I do need to throw in the obvious caveat that the value of the trade depends on the assets going back in return. Yes, it would clearly not be worth it for the 76ers to make the trade if San Antonio insisted on the package being Tyrese Maxey and #3 for #2, Keldon Johnson, and Harrison Barnes. If the trade package looks like the first round pick, swap, and an extra second as you suggested above, though, I would absolutely pull the trigger if I were in the 76ers front office. Harper and Maxey would make a devastating backcourt pairing, and Harper is big enough that Philadelphia could try out some three-guard Maxey/McCain/Harper lineups and blitz their opponents off the floor. Between my extremely strong belief in Harper, my belief in his potential fit with the Sixers, and my questions about how Philly would make it work with the potential options at #3, I would be very aggressive with trying to find a trade-up scenario that works.
While I think trading up would be a win for the 76ers, barring an insane ask from the Spurs, we should discuss some of the potential options for them at #3, assuming they stay there. Ace Bailey was the #3 pick on most boards for most of the draft cycle; I still have him there personally, even if my evangelism for his cause has dimmed slightly. However, I don’t think that his greatest strengths mesh well with the 76ers–not to say that they should avoid drafting him if he’s BPA on their board (as he would be on mine), but the 76ers don’t need shot-making and superstar potential as much as the average team with the #3 overall pick. The two other players who would be my primary targets for Philly would be V.J. Edgecombe and Kon Knueppel. For Edgecombe, the argument would be rooted in his superlative defense and complementary skills offensively. For Knueppel, he would bring value as a shooting and playmaking threat for a team that finished 27th in three-point percentage last year and could use secondary playmakers alongside either Maxey or McCain.
This is your squad, Nathan, so I’m really curious to hear your thoughts here. Would you be in favor of trading up for Harper (assuming a reasonable framework of the deal)? Would you be looking at Bailey, Edgecombe, or Knueppel if they stay at #3, or are there other prospects you would be keying in on if you were in Daryl Morey’s position?
Nathan: I would be in the same camp as you, Nick, as far as a potential trade-up scenario. If a deal could be found that kept Jared McCain in Philadelphia, I would be all for going after Dylan Harper because, as you said, this team doesn’t quite have another player like him on the roster. However, he could also fit around those other guards in McCain and Tyrese Maxey. Maxey pressures the rim like Harper, but he hasn’t quite broken through his ceiling as a pick-and-roll playmaker. McCain has shown great passing flashes on the move along with his top-tier movement shooting ability, but he doesn’t provide that aggressive downhill nature like Harper does. So getting a player that can blend these backcourt combinations together could ensure the 76ers have at least two above-average ball-handlers/scorers on the floor at all times, which we’ve seen enough of in the playoffs from every squad that has gone deep in this postseason.
If that trade can’t come to fruition, my opinion on the primary target for the 76ers at that third spot likely differs quite a bit from consensus.
As you mentioned, Nick, Ace Bailey has been the guy right behind both Harper and Cooper Flagg for the majority of the draft process. Every single scout, coach, or media personality with close ties to the game that I’ve talked to has said great things about Bailey as a player, while also acknowledging there could be some growing pains with his transition to the NBA. Billed as a scoring forward, Bailey’s tough shot-making was impressive to witness in person this year at Rutgers. However, even going back to his high school splits, I wouldn’t profile him as an elite shooter. Bailey has built his game around catching, turning, and facing up his opponent, rather than making quick decisions to either get the shot off or move off the ball. I actually think Bailey is a better passer than given credit for when he sees the read, but a lot of what Bailey does isn’t quite as quick as it needs to be when it comes to the flow of an NBA game. That being said, Bailey can also make shots off the bounce that few other wings can, so there’s tangible upside to build on with him if a team is patient and puts enough developmental resources into rounding out the rest of Bailey’s game from a ball-handling and decision-making standpoint. Those improvements only come with enough on-court reps, so if Philadelphia were to draft him, the organization would have to be patient working through growing pains with him—especially given the fact that he’s never been a pure catch-and-shoot player like McCain, or guys in this class like Kon Knueppel and Tre Johnson.
What if the 76ers take Bailey with star expectations, and things do in fact go sideways during his rookie season? Philadelphia has the chance to make noise in a depleted Eastern Conference, especially given the depth Daryl Morey and Co. have acquired over the last 12 months. If Bailey cannot adapt to more of an off-ball role, struggles with turning the ball over, and can’t quite match up physically on defense, is this a situation where the fanbase turns on him, given the lingering bad feelings engendered by other recent draft choices by the 76ers? Also, how does Bailey respond to having to work through a new role, one that he may feel he’s above in terms of his overall talent level? I’m not trying to cast aspersions on Bailey’s potential fit in Philly, but there is a real downside if things don’t quite click together for him early on. To me, Bailey is much better suited to go to a team with less pressure out of the gate, where he can get his shots up while also having the runway to grow as an on-ball player and defender. This isn’t our Utah Jazz preview piece, but that to me is the perfect destination for him.
So now we get to where I’m at as far as the top options are concerned. Personally, I’m convinced Philadelphia takes VJ Edgecombe if they stay with the third pick. Edgecombe provides a blend of upside and certainty in terms of early-career projection as far as a particular strength is concerned. There are questions to ask about Edgecombe defensively in terms of how many positions he can effectively guard in the NBA, but his disruptive nature will create plays on the break no matter where he’s playing and who he’s playing alongside. He has as high of a motor as there is in this draft. If he’s primarily guarding other backcourt options, he could put together some impressive performances that vault him into conversations as one of the best young defenders in the league. Offensively, he’s become a strong enough catch-and-shoot option to envision him playing off of Maxey, McCain, Joel Embiid, and Paul George—not to mention that he’ll create enough of his own looks in transition and can cut to the rim. There’s been a lot of talk about his ball handling in traffic, but when he has just one man to beat up top, boy can he get to the rim and finish in a hurry.
I’ve rambled a ton, and I haven’t answered your question, Nick! What would I do with the third pick if I were Philly? I would take Knueppel pretty decidedly.
A lot of analysts and scouts who would argue against this pick would say that Knueppel doesn’t have the same upside as some of the other names in this range. He’s not a dominant athlete on the wing, and therefore has a certain ceiling capped based on optimal two-way output. To that I would say that Knueppel projects better than one would think on both ends of the floor.
I saw Kneuppel and Duke play Illinois at Madison Square Garden during the regular season, and yes, there were absolutely times I saw Kon get blown by without having the top-tier mobility to recover defensively. That will likely happen in the NBA too if he’s on an island against a speedster on the perimeter. But there were also possessions I watched on film where Knueppel held his ground, beat players to spots, and cut them off using his size and physicality. Knueppel is a freaking tough dude. He’s willing to put some muscle into someone defensively, and it helps him box out and even secure some boards to push out in transition. His awareness and ability to process and read the floor defensively give him a chance to at least hold up on that side of the ball, along with his size at 6’6” and nearly 220 pounds.
Offensively, Knueppel is one of the best shooters in this draft class. I would have him ahead of Johnson if he had better results off the dribble from deep this past season, but the track record is much more positive in that regard if you factor in pre-college stats. Still, coming off movement, working off other screen actions, and even coming to a stop around the free-throw line, Knueppel can make any other jump shot you can think of right now at an NBA level. He’s able to use some crafty footwork to finish at the rim, and has the secondary passing vision to work a ball-screen action and dissect an opposing defense. There really aren’t too many holes in his game from a skill perspective, and hearing him in interviews, he sounds exactly like the type of worker and player I would want in my organization. There’s a question of fit with Knueppel in terms of playing alongside both Maxey and McCain defensively, but I just can’t quit the idea of bringing in another dribble, pass, and shoot option after everything we’ve seen the last few years in the playoffs who knows how to play the game, possesses positional size, and has the type of mentality to add to a team and make those around him better.
But enough from me, Nick; give me your thoughts on how you would approach drafting at three if you were the GM of the 76ers. Do any of those players entice you enough, or is there another option we haven’t even mentioned that piques your interest, like Khaman Maluach, Derik Queen, or Collin Murray-Boyles?
Nick: It’s honestly very difficult for me to figure out what I would do here; the 76ers already got a big win by simply keeping their pick, and jumping up to #3 is obviously huge, but it leaves them in a much weirder spot than they would be if they’d ended up with either of the picks around them.
I’ll answer your last question up top, though: if I were the GM of the 76ers, I would probably go with V.J. Edgecombe if they kept the pick. It’s a close thing between him and Ace Bailey, and I do feel weird about going away from the player I have as the best player available here. Sure, I might think that Ace Bailey provides the best combination of present value and future upside after Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper are off the board. He might be the player I believe in the third-most of any prospect in this class, but will he get the touches he needs to grow into that kind of player in Philly? If he has to lean in more to his defense because he won’t get the ball much on offense, will he be as valuable for the 76ers as someone who I think has less upside, but whose pathway to minutes and development is easier to see with Edgecombe? I still struggle with this, but I think that my internal logic here isn’t too off the mark for me to be able to make sense of it; I would choose Ace Bailey for the majority of teams picking at #3, but I think I would take Edgecombe for Philly specifically. Knueppel would be the third player on my consideration list for the Sixers; I totally get your reasoning and think it makes sense, but I’m more concerned about his defense than you are. Those would be the three main prospects in consideration for me; while I’m a big believer in Queen, I would have all three of Edgecombe, Bailey, and Knueppel ahead of him for the Sixers.
That leads me to one last question for you. We talked earlier about the prospect of trading up, and we both agreed that picking up Dylan Harper without surrendering a crazy package would be a huge win for the 76ers. However, what about potentially trading down? Neither of us is a fan of the fit of Ace Bailey with the Sixers, but there are plenty of teams with different needs who might be willing to give up some major assets to swing on Bailey with the third overall pick. The most obvious trading partner in my mind would be Utah; while we’ve yet to see how Austin Ainge will run things for the Jazz, they are in desperate need of a superstar. Bailey could be that guy for them, and as you mentioned, Utah might be the perfect situation for him. Philly trading back to #5 would guarantee that one of Edgecombe or Knueppel would still be on the board. I’m guessing that the Jazz would probably want to hold onto their more immediate picks, given the current state of the team, but Utah does have Phoenix’s 2031 first round pick, which might be valuable enough that the Jazz could give up their own 2030 or 2031 first round pick. They also have #21, #43, and #53 in this draft if they are willing to give up more readily available draft capital to move up and snag Bailey. The Nets might also make sense as a trade partner, but moving back to #8 would be a bigger drop for the Sixers and would require more to sweeten the deal. Luckily, the Nets have a treasure trove of draft assets, including #19, #26, and #27 in this year’s draft, to make a trade work.
Ultimately, the 76ers are in a great spot here. While I think the decisions would be easier for them at any other spot in the Top 4, they also essentially control the flow of the start of the draft–they’re trading up for the consensus #2 pick and shaking things up, trading back and acquiring more assets, or making the pick at #3 that will signal either a chalk start to the draft or a slightly spicier affair.
Bring us home, Nathan–what do you think about trading back scenarios or any other monkey wrenches that the 76ers could throw into the proceedings once the 2025 NBA Draft begins?
Nathan: The three teams that have been most discussed with the 76ers as far as trade-down scenarios are concerned are the Utah Jazz, New Orleans Pelicans, and Brooklyn Nets. With the Jazz, like you mentioned, it makes a ton of sense for the target there to be Ace Bailey. Utah has the future picks to get a deal done, and there would almost have to be the inclusion of 21 on top of another future first like you said to bring the deal home given Philly isn’t in a position to take back salary from the Jazz due to the desire to re-sign both Quentin Grimes and Guerschon Yabusele.
However, the Pelicans do have some players worth discussing in trade regarding a move-back scenario in Herb Jones and potentially Trey Murphy III. A trade for Jones is pretty simple, with the deal being the #3 pick, Kelly Oubre, and Andre Drummond going to the Pelicans for the #7 pick and Jones. The money is clean, and the 76ers would get a defensive-minded wing on a cheap contract who has also become a much-improved catch-and-shoot threat since he’s entered the NBA. New Orleans needs a shake-up to the roster, and is reportedly open to discussing trades. If the buzz is real that Bailey is a prime target for New Orleans’s new front office, both teams could benefit from this move.
Murphy as a target would be fascinating, albeit a little complicated. Essentially, a sign-and-trade would have to be executed after the start of the free agency period, which means the delayed signings of the players who would be selected on draft night, so the “rights” to the players selected at each pick would also go into the deal. It sounds rough, but hear me out. A trade could look something like a sign-and-trade for Quentin Grimes at a new figure that’s right in line with Trey Murphy’s current contract, the #3 pick, the Clippers swap in 2029, and Philly’s 2031 unprotected first round selection in exchange for Murphy and #7. In this scenario, New Orleans gets a replacement right away for Murphy in Grimes, a higher first round selection in this draft, and two other future picks to use however the organization sees fit. Philadelphia would lose capital in a potential post-Joel Embiid era by that point, but would have brought in one of the best young shooting wings in the league and another lottery talent to help bolster the depth.
The Murphy scenario is a pipe dream, but the Jones deal could be on the table. I wouldn’t rule out a deal that involves the Pelicans. Brooklyn is likely the easiest trade partner to envision, as a deal could be built exclusively on draft picks. The #3 pick from Philadelphia would go out in exchange for #8, #19, and whichever first round pick the Nets would look to send out in 2027, most likely the New York Knicks selection that Brooklyn has. Philadelphia would get two extra selections, and the Nets could go after either Bailey or VJ Edgecombe to build with for the future.
A dark horse scenario: I wouldn’t completely rule out the Charlotte Hornets moving up one spot to select Edgecombe if that’s the team’s most ideal target. The Hornets have a number of firsts to play with that could go back to Philadelphia, and the cost wouldn’t be too steep as if Philadelphia was dead set on one of Bailey or Edgecombe, they could still get one of those players at #4 OR entertain the idea of another prospect they didn’t see as much value in taking at the third spot.
All of that jargon, and I didn’t even mention who the 76ers could target trading down! Sorry, I’ve just been looking for an outlet to talk Sixers draft!
All of Tre Johnson, Kon Knueppel, and Collin Murray-Boyles would be on the board for Philadelphia for different reasons. Kon, as I laid out earlier, provides a shooter in a big enough body to hopefully hold up enough on defense. Johnson is a lights-out movement shooter who could play off nearly any combination of players for the 76ers, with upside built into him becoming a more dynamic playmaker. Johnson measured well at the combine, standing at 6’6” in shoes with a 6’10” wingspan, so one would hope he could unlock some defensive ability with more coaching and development.
Murray-Boyles is one of three players in this lottery range who I could envision actually improving Philly’s perimeter defense tomorrow. Cooper Flagg would be long gone, and Carter Bryant might be a bit rich for the 76ers to look at, depending on how far the team traded down. CMB is also a risky proposition given his lack of shooting entering the league, but I’m a sucker for every other aspect of his game. He’s a legit ball handler at a bruising 6’7” and nearly 235 pounds. Murray-Boyles is excellent at keeping his dribble alive, processing defenses in real time, and getting into the lane for buckets at the rim or fouls drawn. He has the kind of passing savvy to keep the ball moving, find cutters and shooters, and can even make those types of plays out of doubles in the post. Defensively, he’s quick enough on the perimeter to hold his own against bigger wings, while having the length and strength to recover and even contest shots from drivers and other bigs at the basket. Few players, as I mentioned, offer that kind of versatility on defense that can swing a high-leverage matchup, and there’s enough there for the 76ers to work with offensively to make sure he fits within certain lineup constructions. High-feel players are required to win playoff games, and if Philly is set to contend next year, Murray-Boyles has a path to actually providing postseason value early on in his career.
I’ll end with this. If the 76ers wanted to target a big man in this draft, Khaman Maluach makes a ton of sense to me in a trade-down scenario, or even at #3 if the front office was enamored with his long-term potential and deemed him the best talent available. Maluach is massive at 7’2” with a 7’6” wingspan. He has the type of frame that will allow him to add healthy bulk without compromising more of his mobility, meaning he’ll get stronger boxing out other bigs and working in the post, two areas that have been critiqued pretty heavily during his freshman year at Duke. What’s most intriguing with Maluach is the work he’s putting in to become a better ball-handler and perimeter shooter. Maluach is already an elite finishing prospect on lobs and cuts, and he acts as a true rim deterrent. Those things will get him on the floor to earn reps and improve in other areas. If he adds a three-point shot, or even just a free-throw area jumper, to his arsenal, he could have the type of two-way upside the 76ers should be looking for in this draft. He’s been playing organized basketball for less than five years, meaning he has a runway of development ahead of him. Embiid is still the focal point of the franchise, so Maluach would have time to grow and adjust to the league without having a ton of pressure as a starting center out of the gate.
If I were in the scouting room for the 76ers, I’d be banging the table most for Knueppel, Murray-Boyles, and Maluach, depending on where the pick ultimately fell. I do still like Bailey as a prospect; if those around me were confident in him as a worker and fit with the rest of the guys on the roster, he’d gladly be in the conversation, too. Philadelphia can go a number of ways on draft night, but this is a group that can win the Eastern Conference. Drafting high is generally reserved for teams that don’t have the luxury to discuss the proposition of a 16-game player versus an 82-game player. Philadelphia could thread the needle between both if it plays its cards right.