2025 NBA Draft Lottery Preview: Portland Trail Blazers

Nathan Grubel and Nick Agar-Johnson continue the lottery previews for the 2025 NBA Draft with the Portland Trail Blazers and the 11th overall pick.

Nick: The Portland Trail Blazers may have fallen short of the play-in, but they were still one of the most pleasant surprises in the NBA this season. That seemed pretty unlikely in mid-January when they fell to 13-28 at the halfway point of the season, one year after finishing in the Western Conference basement at 21-61.

However, from that point onward, Portland was one of the toughest teams to beat in the league. They ripped off a four-game winning streak after the halfway point, dropped a game to the Oklahoma City Thunder, and then won another six in a row. Their defense sparked the turnaround, led by Toumani Camara and Deni Avdija, with key contributions and flashes from rookie big man Donovan Clingan. That defensive unit kept them in the hunt for a play-in spot until very late in the season.

The Portland Trail Blazers will enter the 2025 NBA Draft on the heels of one of the more positive developmental seasons of any of the lottery teams. Now, they have the 11th pick and are in a great position going forward. They have starter-caliber players at every position and one of the youngest rosters in the league; Jerami Grant is the only player on the roster over 30, and he very well might be on the move before next season starts. Maybe even before this pick is made.

Nathan, I’m curious about your thoughts here. Portland has a ton of depth, so they might be in a good position to take the prospect they think has the highest upside, regardless of position. On the other hand, they fell just short of the play-in last season and are clearly on an upward trajectory that a bust could torpedo. That could make them more willing to try to just get on base instead of swinging for the fences. Which players would you be looking at if you were in the Portland front office?

Nathan: You hit the nail on the head as far as Portland’s defensive identity. Some of the most successful rebuilds over the last few seasons have come from a young squad finding their voice in the league, so to speak, based on core strengths. The Trail Blazers have invested heavily in versatile defenders who can cover multiple positions and help fill gaps in certain coverages. Deni Avdija was one of the best acquisitions we’ve been in a pre-draft trade in recent memory, and of course, Toumani Camara will be in for a massive pay day in time.

With all of that being said, offense is still as important in today’s game as ever. It’s crucial to have multiple perimeter ball-handlers who can put the ball in the bucket and convert on three-point shots. A player who can spend time on the wing, shoot, and not compromise much of the team’s defensive/transition-oriented identity would be a preferred selection in the late lottery. To your point, Nick, if that player also has massive upside down the road in tandem with the short-term value that only adds to what the Trail Blazers are looking to accomplish over the next two seasons, that’s icing on the cake.

I would expect the hype-machine trio of Noa Essengue, Carter Bryant, and Cedric Coward to all be in play for Portland, depending on who is available at the pick. In Essengue’s case, he’s the type of long-term swing that could pay dividends down the road if his jump shot comes around. He’s comfortable operating in transition, can make reads on the break, and has the length to defend in space just like the team’s other core building blocks.

Bryant’s positioning inside the lottery is a bit more theoretical than I care to project as high as this point in the draft cycle. Still, his combination of physical tools, defensive ability, and spot-up shooting could be too much for a team to pass on as high as 6th overall. He doesn’t have the profile of a creative wing who excels at doing a ton off the dribble, nor has he gotten the chance to experiment in pick-and-roll offense in college. Still, there’s no guarantee a rookie is cracking the Trail Blazers’ rotation anyway, given the depth you outlined earlier. Bryant could spend time, as could Essengue, with the Rip City Remix and gain valuable experience on the ball.

Coward intrigues me a great deal in this spot, given his size, length, and shooting ability. There are plenty of concerns about Coward, similar to Bryant, in that he hasn’t spent a ton of time on the ball himself, but there are some moments on tape where he makes slick reads off the bounce and doesn’t let the ball stick in his hands for too long. His three-point shooting tracks back to his days in high school and up through the collegiate ranks, which is all the more reason to buy into an athletic wing with massive hands, a 7’2” wingspan, and enough physicality to step in and earn minutes as early as next season.

Which of those prospects intrigues you the most for Portland, and are there any other perimeter-oriented players you’d want to consider?

Nick: First of all, I like all three of the players that you brought up for Portland. Essengue and Coward stand out to me in particular as indicative of where the Trail Blazers think they are right now in terms of their rebuild. Essengue’s mix of tools and transition play gives him a pretty solid baseline, but he would be the pick if the Trail Blazers were looking for a real upside play. Coward would be closer to the “getting on base” notion that I mentioned above, instead of being a swing for the fences. He might not have as high of a ceiling as Essengue, but I believe that Coward’s ceiling (particularly in terms of his on-ball equity) is much higher than some people might think. Bryant might be a middle-path option between Essengue and Coward; he’s also the most likely of the three to be off the board by the time the 11th pick comes around.

It’s interesting to me that you went with three forwards with perimeter-oriented games, but also players with real enough size to play in the frontcourt. My thoughts are trending in that direction as well, which seems odd to me given how critical Toumani Camara and Deni Avdija are to the team, and how unlikely they are to be supplanted. I guess it’s some combination of belief in Scoot Henderson and belief that Anfernee Simons won’t be traded any time soon. Still, I am curious about the fact that both of our first instincts were versatile forwards instead of help in the guard room. Given the Donovan Clingan/DeAndre Ayton/Robert Williams III of it all, I’m not surprised at all that neither of us brought up any pure bigs–especially since Khaman Maluach and Derik Queen are all but guaranteed to go before the 11th pick.

That being said, there is one guard who I want to bring up as a possibility for the Trail Blazers. You gave me three names, so I’ll give you three in return. Let’s start with the other wing/forward types I’d be considering if I were looking at this draft from Portland’s perspective.

The first player is a long-time No Ceilings favorite, and his versatility makes it easy to project him as a fit for pretty much any team. I’m going with Nique Clifford as an option here. He’s closer to being a wing than a forward, but the leap he took on the offensive end this year pairs very well with his elite defense. As you talked about with Clifford in the wing edition of your excellent “So You Think You Can Be an NBA Role Player” series, his all-around skill set makes him a good bet to scale up to NBA play, and his sensational rebounding helps offset the size part of the forward equation for him.

The second player had a polarizing season, so it’s hard to tell where his draft stock is at the moment, but I would also seriously consider Liam McNeeley for Portland. Our own Albert Ghim wrote an excellent article about him for No Ceilings earlier this week, and as Albert noted, context will be critical for McNeeley to reach his full potential.

That said, I really like what that context would look like for him in Portland. With McNeeley creating second-side offense, playing a role in a defensive scheme but not being leaned on, and having more space to take threes on a team that loves shooting (top half of the league in three-point attempts) but doesn’t always hit them (Portland ranked 26th in three-point percentage last year), McNeeley will have his weaknesses covered for while being given room to shine.

The third player is the one whom I’m most curious to hear your thoughts about, because he’s pretty different from the five wing/forward types we’ve discussed for Portland. I can’t shake the feeling that Egor Demin would be an awesome fit for the Portland Trail Blazers. While his shooting numbers at BYU were pretty poor, his form and the degree of difficulty on his attempts make me more optimistic about his shot than the numbers would indicate. Demin’s playmaking is truly special, and his size alone makes it easier to fit him in alongside other guards. He could work wonders as the primary playmaker in lineups with Simons and Shaedon Sharpe to get them involved, and he could also work as a second-side playmaker and off-ball cutter with Scoot Henderson running the show. While Portland’s shooting woes and Demin’s potential issues there aren’t the best mix, I think that Portland’s defensive context would get the best out of Demin on that side of the ball, and they could draw up some fascinating plays with the ball in Demin’s hands and a bunch of do-everything wings and forwards around him.

So, Nathan, what do you think? Am I coming out of left field with the Demin suggestion, or do you think that might work? Is there anyone else who might be around with the 11th pick who could be a fit for them?

Nathan: Egor Demin is a fascinating suggestion by you, Nick, for Portland’s consideration. I do think that, in a number of ways, his fit could make sense in terms of connecting the dots between the other scorers on the Trail Blazers. He’s a player who projects more as a supporting wing rather than a do-it-all guard, which can make some sense because Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe are predominantly on the ball. Deni Avdija also soaked up more usage last season as a point forward, especially in transition.

Demin has the tools to surprise some people, and everything I’ve heard and read about him suggests he’s a smart kid who understands what he needs to work on to get where he wants to go. That type of player projects to be coachable, and the Trail Blazers took meaningful steps forward this season with Chauncey Billups getting the most out of his guys once it felt like they all bought into the team’s identity.

That being said, Demin doesn’t quite feel like he is the exact type of player the team would look for to continue building out that identity. I could be entirely wrong (wouldn’t be the first time), but the staff may want to inject another young talent who offers a change-of-speed pitch, if you will, off the bench. Demin can play in several lineup constructions; as he fills out his body, there’s some low-hanging fruit on the defensive side of the ball that could come to light as he develops chemistry with his new teammates.

So, Nick, you aren’t crazy for suggesting Demin as a wildcard for Portland. He’s generated very real lottery buzz, which we’ve all heard at No Ceilings, and could even be off the board by the time the Trail Blazers make a selection.

Before we wrap this up, though, I do want to mention the possibility of the Trail Blazers exploring any option on the table that could lead to a trade-down scenario, if it meant shuffling some of the team’s current payroll off the books. Toumani Camara will be due for an extension, something likely in the realm of $20-plus million per year given what he’s meant to the team’s perimeter defense. That’s not to mention Camara’s offensive game has continued to grow each of the last two seasons. In addition to Camara, Sharpe will also be due for an extension, which could become fairly pricey depending on how he views himself as a player.

All of a sudden, there could be a lot of money on the books for a team that hasn’t quite yet made the playoffs, though I would expect Portland to be firmly in that mix next season, even in a loaded Western Conference. There isn’t a particular trade scenario in front of me that stands out, but if there were any way to move off a larger deal like Jerami Grant in exchange for trading down from the 11th pick, I’m sure the Blazers front office would have to listen. DeAndre Ayton will be on an expiring contract, so maybe that’s all Portland looks to deal with outside of a potential Anfernee Simons scenario. However, it wouldn’t entirely shock me if we saw the Trail Blazers move out of the lottery to seek value and other financial relief if the right opportunity presents itself.

We talked about a wide range of prospects, but one thing is for certain: Portland is building a very legitimate threat to contend for a playoff spot in the Western Conference. This front office has made some excellent decisions, particularly in drafting Donovan Clingan and acquiring a player like Avdija. Getting players like Avdija and Camara the way they did was the exact type of strategy any contending team is known to have when it comes to building quality depth. I have complete trust in Joe Cronin and Mike Schmitz to make the best moves possible to put Billups and his players in a position to succeed and grow long term.