2025 NBA Draft Lottery Preview: Utah Jazz
After a tough season, Utah's lottery luck didn't go as planned. Albert Ghim and Rowan Kent explore who the Jazz could choose in the 2025 NBA Draft with the #5 pick!
Rowan: After a year of bottoming out with the worst record in the entire NBA, the Utah Jazz were “rewarded” with four cruel strokes of fate. Instead of a top pick, the Jazz watched as Dallas, San Antonio, Philadelphia, and Charlotte nabbed the top slots in the 2025 NBA draft. Still, given the top-heavy nature of the class, picking 5th overall is a solid consolation prize. The team also holds the 21st pick and two second-round picks to bolster their young roster. Albert, when looking at this Jazz roster, there are few players they have that would preclude me from drafting a potential future franchise cornerstone. That’s just how it is when you rank 28th in net rating in the NBA and have the worst defensive rating as well. While Isaiah Collier and Kyle Filipowski had good rookie years, either would need a massive developmental jump next year to be a long-time starter for the team. Keyonte George, Brice Sensabaugh, and Taylor Hendricks have also experienced varying degrees of success in the NBA, whether due to injuries or shifting roles. I’m also not convinced that Lauri Markannen or Walker Kessler will be on the next Utah playoff team, which keeps any backcourt, wing, or frontcourt option open for the draft. If any of Cooper Flagg (lol), Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, or VJ Edgecombe fall to #5, I’d expect the Jazz to sprint to the podium. Otherwise, who do you think Utah could target with their lottery pick? Who is at the top of your board for what they need, which may be everything, and who fits best with this team?
Albert: Like most teams picking in the Top 5, when you pull up their roster, the cupboard is pretty bare. Not saying they don’t have some talent on the roster, but there’s not a ton to be excited about, and more importantly, it’s hard to tell what their roster-building philosophy is. There are tons of rumors out there that the Jazz could be looking to leverage some of their young assets to make a big move for a star or two, but until that happens, their roster is what it is. The talisman of the roster has to be Lauri Markkanen, but even he has seen his numbers and health decline over the last two seasons, given the roster around him and his own struggles with injuries. If the guys you mentioned are off the table at the fifth pick, I’d schedule a parade in Utah with barrels of unlimited mixed sodas for the fan base to celebrate the selection of Duke’s Kon Knueppel.
Knueppel is a guy that I think has a real chance of going ahead of this pick, maybe even at three to the Sixers, but if he’s there at five, the Jazz should be thrilled with the quality of prospect they’d be getting. Kon is such an anomaly as a prospect because he’s walking into the league with such a high floor as a player with high feel and elite shooting, but the truth is, his ceiling is ridiculously high as well. If you just pull up his stat sheet, it’s art. The shooting efficiency, considering the volume and context, is ridiculous. Considering the fact that he and Cooper Flagg were the primary ball-handlers for Duke last season, his shooting numbers are special. Kon is also a special passer of the ball who can make high-level reads and competently run your offense if you need him to, as he proved in spurts at Duke. Kon is not an elite defender, but the combination of offensive versatility and size he offers makes him worthy of a Top 5 pick. I’m sure Nick Agar-Johnson would be thrilled with this pick, but Rowan, who would you be entertaining at this spot if those top guys were off the board?
Rowan: I think the Jazz would be similarly psyched if Knueppel were still on the board here. It’s fair to wonder whether Philadelphia or Charlotte will be tempted to take a ready-made offensive weapon like him at three or four, but that also creates a comfortable scenario for Utah. Getting a player like Knueppel, who has shown the ability to play several important offensive roles, would give their backcourt scoring a jolt it hasn’t had since Donovan Mitchell was traded. He’s comfortable operating ball screens, can attack reliably off the catch, and is a terror to defend beyond the arc. Knueppel is also a deft passer who can execute secondary actions immediately in an NBA offense. However, the Utah situation will give him the most time to develop his game at the pace it needs to, without the harsh spotlight of expectations.
For the sake of argument, there are a few other players that I’d heavily consider at this pick, even if Knueppel were still on the board. Tre Johnson is another who comes up due to his offensive package and ceiling, and he offers a similar sell to the Jazz that Knueppel did. Johnson is a prototypically sized shooting guard who carried an even greater offensive load this year at Texas, as he was the clear first option for a team lacking potential pro talent outside of Arthur Kaluma. Johnson was frequently the focus of opponent game plans, but that didn’t stop him from showing off his shot creation and deadeye shooting from deep. There were some fair questions about Johnson’s driving and shot selection, but I’d be hard pressed to believe that Knueppel would have had a markedly better season than Johnson in the same situation. The Jazz have a clear opening for a perimeter scorer and also have the infrastructure for Johnson to improve as a driver and as a passer on his own time.
There’s also an argument for Jeremiah Fears at this slot, even though I’m a bit lower on him than the consensus. Fears wasn’t supposed to be in this position before his reclassification, but he transcended common practice and was one of the more impressive freshman scorers in the country. Fears carried an arguably bigger load than Johnson while playing for Oklahoma, and he still showed off an advanced creation package in the halfcourt. There will be fair questions about his adjustment up to the next level with his defense and playmaking, alongside some real overlap in skillset with Keyonte George, but that’s no reason not to draft Fears. If the Jazz are taking him here, it’s because they believe that he can be the next potential centerpiece for their team, which none of George, Collier, or Sensabaugh have shown the potential for at this juncture.
Outside of guards, I’d be heavily considering Khaman Maluach at this slot. You can say what you want about Walker Kessler’s rim numbers, but it’s just as telling that his name appears in trade conversations and the asking price, while never met, is never large enough to dissuade the possibility of a trade. If he were the Jazz’s center of the future, they’d nip the rumors in the bud and convey that he was an unmovable asset. Instead, Utah could be enthralled by one of the more athletic and versatile two-way centers in the class. Maluach is undoubtedly raw, which aligns with the current timeline for the Jazz, but you can’t teach the size, length, and strength that he plays with on both ends. He’s already a holy terror on defense due to his reach and timing, but the real draw is what Maluach could one day do on the offensive end. He didn’t showcase it as much at Duke due to his role, but Maluach has demonstrated in youth camps and the Basketball Africa League that he has some additional shooting and ball-handling skills to explore. The draw of a potential “unicorn” center who can be an offensive threat and a defensive anchor is just the type of swing the Jazz may need to get a star talent like that in the building. Albert, what are your thoughts on Maluach at this location? Too rich for your blood? And what about the guards mentioned above, outside of Kon? Any favorite fits from the bunch?
Albert: I have Maluach at six on my last Big Board, so I would have no problem with the Jazz taking him at five. After seeing him live at the Nike Hoop Summit last year, it was pretty clear that Maluach was going to be a popular name in this class. The dude is just a giant human being who moves well for his size. During practices the week of the Hoop Summit, we got to see a glimpse of that shooting prowess you mentioned. He’s still a long way from that being a real weapon in his arsenal, but there is hope. Maluach is an intriguing pick for the Jazz because the roster is so uncertain at this point.
Beyond the Kessler rumors, there are also rumors that the team wants to move on from players like Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson. You also have to wonder how Austin Ainge feels about their young guys like Isaiah Collier, Keyonte George, and Cody Williams. The ultimate point I’m trying to make is that you can really make an argument for any of the top guys at this point in the draft because we really don’t know how the front office feels about any of their current players. With that in mind, guys like Tre Johnson and Jeremiah Fears, as you mentioned, should 100% be on the table as options for them. Taking Fears this high might be spicy for some, but the buzz around him going earlier than people think seems to be real. Speaking of buzz, there seems to be some buzz that Ace could potentially fall a little bit and could be available to the Jazz at five. Ace falling to five would be an incredible turn of events for the Jazz. Considering everything we said about their roster, adding a 6’9” wing with the offensive ceiling that he possesses would be incredible.
The way that people have talked about Ace during this cycle has been weird. I’m not trying to say that I think Ace is a bulletproof prospect, but I do think it’s rare to get wings of his size that have the shot-making ability that he possesses. Ultimately, if you’re grabbing Ace with a Top 5 pick, you’re hoping the handle gets tighter and that he becomes a little bit more careful with his shot selection. Ace may not be a freak athlete, but he’s plenty athletic, and he’s shown real flashes on the defensive side as well. The high-end outcome for a guy like that could be a perennial All-Star competing for All-NBA teams. Even with his warts, a guy like that should be a lock to be taken in the top five, if not even higher. If the Jazz were to get Ace at five, he’d easily be the best prospect they’ve grabbed in the draft since Gordon Hayward.
Rowan, what are your thoughts on Ace? If he were to fall to five, would he be your choice for the Jazz?
Rowan: As luck would have it, I’ve had something cooking in the chamber that will be out at No Ceilings this week about Ace Bailey. In short, I agree with everything you’re saying with Ace. In the long run, I think that he not only fits well with whatever this roster becomes for the Jazz, but has the talent to be the type of player that the roster is shaped around. As you mentioned, Albert, it is challenging to find players with Bailey’s height, athleticism, and skill set in the building. Bailey is not a singular wing athlete, but he is a fabulous leaper, is blazing fast in transition, and moves well laterally on defense. I think Bailey has a high-enough floor on defense that he should be able to make an impact on defense for a team that needs a wing stopper.
As far as the offense goes, Utah offers Bailey the most potential positive career outcomes. There are enough touches to go around to give to Bailey that he could develop his ability to carry an offense early in his career. Will Hardy has shown some real craft in his sets on offense, which should help spring Bailey open for easy looks at his favorite spots on the floor. Bailey could also fit into a more minor, but no less important, role for the Jazz if he doesn’t hit his star ceiling. The Jazz were sixth in three-point attempts per game this season at 39.8, but they canned them at a 22nd-ranked 35.0% from deep. Bailey could step in and bomb from deep early, while also working on his perimeter defense as a stopper. That combination of shooting and defense, affectionately called 3-and-D, might be a lower career outcome for Bailey, but it is not less important to winning basketball. It may sound like an insult, but a career arc like Andrew Wiggins’s is one that Ace Bailey can easily achieve, if he can pare down his shot selection and evolve into the type of wing that Wiggins has been in Golden State and Miami.
It’s hard to imagine passing up on Bailey if he were to fall to five, even if a prospect like Kon Knueppel, Khaman Maluach, or Jeremiah Fears is there. All three have great ceilings to their games, but they don’t have the same ceiling that Bailey does. It’s not just about drafting for the ceiling, but it is more critical with a Top 5 pick. For better or worse, the pressure that comes from being a Top 5 pick is measured in stardom and high-level contribution. The three aforementioned players would need to develop more quickly than anticipated to meet the rising criticism they’d face, which Bailey has already encountered in his career at Rutgers. That’s not a reason to draft him, but Bailey’s higher immediate floor as a wing for a team that needs a wing should be considered. There’s no real way to know which way the Jazz will go, as they even claim to be trying to return to the playoffs next season, but they’d be ecstatic to land a talent like Bailey after falling out of the supposed draft range to land a player of his caliber.