2025 NBA Draft Lottery Preview: Washington Wizards
The Washington Wizards are in a fascinating spot in the 2025 NBA Draft. Tyler Metcalf and Jam Hines break down their potential options with the #6 pick, as well as the #18 pick.
Metcalf: I love the approach that the Wizards took in last year’s draft of taking the biggest upside swings they could on guys they believed in. They have two more Top 20 picks in this year’s draft. Do you expect them to take a similar approach? Do you think that’s the right approach?
Jam: I completely agree. The early returns from last year’s class have been fantastic, and I expect Will Dawkins and company to keep the same approach. According to Dawkins, the team is still in the phase one “deconstruction” part of the rebuild, but they are right at the corner of phase two, “laying the foundation.” With those two Top 20 picks, swinging for upside on both still makes a ton of sense. Splitting the difference with a high-floor player that fits should be really appealing as well. A Nique Clifford type immediately popped in my mind for one of those picks. Am I off here? What do you think their approach should be?
Metcalf: I love that phrasing of “deconstruction” because it’s so true. I really struggle with the approach because at some point, you have to have competent basketball players or else you’ll never take that step forward. We see it with teams all the time where they exclusively take upside swings and then get caught in this endless cycle of failure. Regardless of what they do at #18, which will largely depend on how the board falls, they still have to be homerun swinging with the sixth pick.
I’m encouraged by the early returns of some of their young players, but none of them have proven to me yet that they are a guaranteed foundational piece. So, even though the fit may be a little clunky with some of this year’s prospects, I don’t think anyone on the roster would prohibit me from taking someone. At that spot, the biggest realistic home run swings to me are Tre Johnson, V.J. Edgecombe, and Jeremiah Fears. What are your thoughts on those guys, and is there anyone else that you’d be excited about at that spot?
Jam: The progression of that young core was indeed encouraging to watch all season long. Alongside what was quietly a very good Jordan Poole year that saw him continue to grow in multiple areas of the game, particularly as a playmaker and leader, there is some real hope and excitement here in the DMV as the team builds. Even with that, I agree that fit shouldn't matter, and all of Johnson, Edgecombe, and Fears would be incredible swings that all have floors that I would be comfortable with.
Johnson and Poole would be a really dynamic shotmaking/shooting combination alongside Bub’s versatility and Bilal’s and Sarr’s two-way ability. I like Johnson’s defensive tools as well. At 6’6” with a 6’10” wingspan, he’s long, rangy, and will compete. Edgecombe brings that instant electric athleticism and two-way upside from the guard spot that the Wiz need. Edgecombe, Bilal, and Sarr would be an excellent young defensive trio to build around. Lastly, Fears has the tools and skill set to be a terrific lead guard in the NBA for the next decade. The upside is there to be a franchise type of player at that spot, perhaps the first with those expectations here since John Wall. The mid/low outcome might not be as high as Johnson or Edgecombe, but I could see him as an impactful bench spark on a playoff team, even if everything doesn't quite hit. What would your order be? I’m Edgecombe, Johnson, Fears here.
Metcalf: I’m Johnson, Edgecombe, Fears for the Wizards. I have Johnson in a tier ahead of those guys anyway, so that’d be a pretty easy swing for me. I love Edgecombe’s tools and intangibles, but I do think the offense still needs a lot of work. There are encouraging signs, but I do worry about what context he goes into. I like his fit with a team like Charlotte a lot more because his creation responsibilities will be way less than they might be with the Wizards. Fears is one of the more fun upside swings in this range, and I love his potential, but the size and shooting concerns alongside Carrington could get messy pretty quickly.
With Johnson, though, I think he’d give them an incredibly dynamic scoring punch as a pure shooting guard. He’d add value as a spot-up shooter, but also add an infusion of second-side creation. He’s really good in motion, can attack closeouts, can run a pick-and-roll, and is a way better passer than people care to admit. I’m glad you brought up his defense as well. His measurements were fantastic, and when he isn’t asked to create everything on offense, I do think the defense will improve. I thought there were encouraging signs this year, just no consistency. Is there any other wild card that we’re missing? I personally wouldn’t go this direction, but could you see a Derik Queen or Khaman Maluach swing here?
Jam: While I ultimately don't see the Wizards going with Queen or Maluach either, I think both have a compelling case that the Wizards front office must consider. Maluach has one of the highest upsides in the class, plus the tools to be an impactful play finishing-shot blocking big in the league for a long time. A Maluach-Sarr-Coulibaly defensive frontcourt would give the team the ingredients of a top-tier defensive team. Queen next to Sarr is among my favorite fits/pairings for a prospect. Queen gets to play alongside another skilled big in Sarr that can potentially help space the floor while having the ability to help compensate for some of Queen’s defensive limitations. I’m sure the Wizards would love to grab Queen at 18 or move up slightly for him if the cost made sense. Both picks should offer more insight into the team’s direction and philosophy.
Metcalf: The only other route I think that could make some sense is a sneaky trade-up scenario. I’m not sure that it’s the best move given that this team just needs talent, but if they have a severe drop-off in their evaluations between their Top 5 guys and whoever may be there at #6, it could be an interesting move. This would also require Charlotte or Utah to have different evaluations on the top guys, but they’re both in a similar boat of just needing talent. If Charlotte has a different evaluation and has six players they’d be more than happy with, I think it’d make a lot of sense for Washington to package #6 and #18 to move up to #4. At that spot, they could grab one of Ace Bailey, Tre Johnson, or V.J. Edgecombe, none of whom I’m confident will be there at #6. I think this is the most unlikely outcome for the Wizards, but it is an interesting scenario to consider. Even if they don’t/can’t move up, I think they’re in a really good position to add more versatile, exciting, young talent to their roster.
um... you like johnson's defensive tools? he is among the worst and least enthusiastic defender in the entire draft class. Johnson has 1.6 steals per 100 possessions. That's stunningly low. A pundit recently wrote "Here’s the quick rundown: Shooting guards have fared horribly in recent drafts, with only about 10% of SGs picked in the first round becoming a plus in impact metrics.
The four shooting guards who stand out from recent drafts are Jalen Suggs, Dyson Daniels, Christian Braun, and Brandin Podziemski .What do those four have in common? They are all positive defenders." Johnson is not. He's only 19 so i suppose it could change with the right enviroment (which washington probably isnt but its possible). The point is that the only guard who is a plus defender is Edgecrombe. Kon is not bad ..sort of neutral. Taking high scoring and high usage shooting guards is a bad draft gamble history shows. Even dylan harper has some glaring defensive holes. Fears, too, compounded by his having to get much stronger. Id say washington should just take the best player regardless of position. They pretty much need everything anyway. I also think Johnson might well drop draft night.
Nice summary of the draft options for Wizards, and I do prefer Edgecombe, Johnson and Fears as Jamaill. I do agree that Johnson is still work taking b/c his defense measurements are there. I hope that Dawkins and company can figure out if he has the want-to attitude to be a plus defender. In the right situation (say with Smart's perspective and the examples of Bilal and Sarr to inspire), Johnson could surprise on that end. Lastly, can Jam and Metcalf tell me what you think of Noa Essengue? I wouldn't mind if this was a wildcard pick at 6 if Edgecombe and Johnson were off the board. I realize that I have recency bias in ranking him in top 5, but he - he does speak French!