2026 NBA Draft Lottery Preview: Golden State Warriors
The No Ceilings team continues their 2026 NBA Draft Lottery Preview series, with Nick Agar-Johnson and Tyler Rucker taking on the team with the #11 pick, the Golden State Warriors.
Nick: The Golden State Warriors appear to be on the precipice of a turning point in franchise history. While the rumors about Steve Kerr leaving were apparently greatly exaggerated, given that he signed another extension with the franchise, it’s hard to ignore that the team's franchise icons are getting up there in years. Steph Curry missed more games than he had since the disastrous 2019-20 season, Jimmy Butler missed more than half the year, and the Jonathan Kuminga saga ended in ignominious fashion. Some of the younger players stepped up, but the team still had one of the league’s oldest rotations. The #11 pick will certainly help in that regard, as the team begins to contemplate the impossible question of how to transition from the Steph Curry era.
Filling in Curry’s shoes would be an impossible task for anyone, but the 2026 NBA Draft has an incredibly deep guard class, and a number of them could make sense as the team's next era begins. Several NBA-ready players could step in right away and help keep the flame going for a couple more seasons, with Curry’s mega-extension expiring at the end of the 2026-27 season. Given that Kerr is sticking around for a bit longer, they may be looking to pick up an older prospect who can come in and contribute right away–just as Will Richard did this past season.
What do you think, Rucker? Which players stand out to you as potential targets for the Warriors with the #11 pick here?
Rucker: Warriors fans have to feel like they are in the ultimate “endgame” section of the timeline. Look, I’ve followed this team as close as any over the years. Make no mistake: this might be one of the most fascinating selections of any team in the first round. Golden State has GOT to hit on this pick. You have an incredible dilemma that you must accurately conquer for this draft.
Are you making this pick to chase one last ride into the sunset? Or are you making this selection for the franchise's future? At first, that question might seem a little ridiculous, but you could argue they are two DRASTICALLY different paths that could shape the entire direction of your Big Board rankings if you’re within that front office.
Personally, I consider any pick 10-14 as the “Danger Zone.” You’ll see a team often think that a player in this range might have as much upside as prospects going fourth or fifth. So this is where you might still swing for the fences. But while you’re doing that, you could also be missing out on some of the highest floor prospects in the class. That’s the line in the sand that you have to dance with. Do you chase the ceiling or accept the floor?
Golden State at 11, like some other teams in this range, could be pleasantly surprised with the names on the board. As you hinted, Nick, we’re going to get some run on the guards. But the fact is, with this class, the guard class is so deep that Golden State could still have a heck of a piece on the board.
Personally, my dream for Golden State would be Arizona freshman Brayden Burries. He’s a playoff-series prospect. A guy that you need on the floor at the end of games because of his ability to make winning plays, even when he’s not scoring. If you need a game to sell you on Burries? Try the road game against BYU at the end of January, in which I thought he was the best player on the floor (yes, I know what I said).
If Burries is gone, plenty will wonder if the Warriors could go in another direction for an earlier contributor. Some options could be Yaxel Lendeborg (Michigan), Hannes Steinbach (Washington), Labaron Philon (Alabama), or the ultimate “let’s get nuts” pick… Aday Mara (Michigan). Obviously, those names would still need to be on the board…
But Nick, there’s one name I’m very intrigued with for the Warriors. That would be Baylor junior Cameron Carr, who I think would fit that system like a glove.
What do you think? Any of those names intrigue you the most? Any others you think deserve some spotlight?
Nick: I’m going to start with Yaxel Lendeborg here because I think he would be a hand-in-glove fit for Golden State. Some might be less inclined to bring Lendeborg on board due to his age, but that might matter less for the Warriors than other teams; he’ll be ready to play a major role on both ends of the floor pretty quickly, he has the passing touch to fit right in with the motion offense and constant ball movement of the system, and he’ll be able to learn from the old guard for the Warriors to start his career and then hit restricted free agency just in time for the Warriors to ink him for his full prime.
Burries would be a very different style of player from Lendeborg, but I think he would also make a ton of sense as more of a bridge to the future than a plug-and-play option right away. His development over the course of the season at Arizona was very encouraging, and he has the scoring punch to be more of an offensive engine than Lendeborg. As you already know from our discussion of the Miami Heat a couple of days ago, I’m also very high on Labaron Philon, and I think he could be a huge pickup for Golden State if he ends up at the end of the run of elite guards in this draft class.
Steinbach could also make a lot of sense for them; adding one of the best rebounders in the class to a team that ranked in the bottom 10 on the glass last season could work wonders, especially given Steinbach’s shooting potential and the long-term lack of big man depth for the team beyond the aging Al Horford and perennially injured Kristaps Porzingis. I like the idea of the Carr fit; he was one of the breakout players of this past college season, and his remarkable athleticism, two-way play, and shooting touch could all work wonders for the Warriors. I’m a bit more skeptical about Mara, but I could see him fit with the Warriors much more than with the other teams in this range.
I think those are the main names to focus on for the Warriors, but I’m going to throw out one more wildcard for them here: what about Jayden Quaintance? He’s very much a high-risk, high-reward type of pick given his injury history and limited offensive game, but Quaintance could be one of the best defensive centers in the league if he can put it all together and stay on the court. I would certainly be worried about going in that direction, given how badly the Warriors need this pick to work out in both the short term and the long term. However, players with Quaintance’s high-end outcomes are rarely available at #11, and pairing him with Draymond Green on defense is a terrifying prospect. I could also see the Warriors taking a look at Karim Lopez, given his athletic tools and versatile off-ball game.
Back to you, Rucker; any thoughts on Quaintance or Lopez? Any other players that you would want to mention?
Rucker: NICK! Dropping the Jayden Quaintance curveball. See, that’s where things can get really fun if you’re an NBA Draft fan. If you’re a Warriors fan, the thought of Quaintance might give you some James Wiseman PTSD. But let’s cook for a minute…
If Golden State is looking at the 11th pick as a potential future franchise piece, you won’t find a juicier swing than Quaintance. He’s one of the youngest prospects in this class, and big-man defensive talents like him don’t come around often. The elephant in the room? The health. Quaintance suddenly returned from an ACL injury at the end of his freshman season, much sooner than we might have expected, and in his first game, looked like a potential Top 5 pick. The rest of the film from this year? Well, that’s another story.
He’s become one of the ultimate “jokers in the deck” of any NBA Draft class. Saying this would be a “swing for the fences” somehow feels like an understatement. But if the health is cleared, Golden State could get crazy and say simply: why not?
Lopez is another bit of a swing in my opinion. The film is a tricky evaluation. I thought he looked rusty in the first half of the year before he really found his groove as the NBL season progressed. After seeing the shot in person at the NBA Draft combine, I left with even more questions than before. If Golden State went that route, I think it would have to be as a down-the-road swing. They’d be taking Lopez for what they can mold him into.
Another name we need to discuss: Tennessee freshman forward Nate Ament. Look, I might not be the highest person here at No Ceilings on Ament…but this is the wheelhouse where he starts to get into serious conversation. If he’s on the board, Golden State could be looking at a lengthy, stretched-out forward with intriguing upside. Ament had a tricky year on film. In the first half of the season, he looked like a player who was struggling to find his way. Then there was a stretch of games in the SEC where he looked like you would sprint to the podium to draft him. After an injury popped up, we never got to see that same player who was teased to us again. In so many words, Ament is still a polarizing prospect. At the 11th pick, though, he could present an idea to teams of serious upside and value to be found.
Nick, we’ve given Warriors fans a lot of options. Anyone else we are missing? If the Warriors want to go the route of finding an early-impact option, what do you think is the best fit?
Nick: I think we’ve touched on the key prospects who might be in contention here for the Warriors. I think that Lendeborg is their best bet for an early-impact option overall, with Philon also in the mix as a bit of a bridge guard who can play with Steph Curry to start, as he focuses on defense before potentially expanding his offensive role down the road.
I’m with you in the Ament skeptic camp, but I also agree that he needs to be brought up here for Golden State. His size and wing-tilted skill set could make him a mismatch nightmare if he continues to bulk up and find more consistency with his shooting.
Ultimately, the player the Warriors select at #11 will be quite indicative of how they see themselves at this point in their franchise history. There’s every reason to believe that they will continue to go all-in on the Curry era until the wheels fall off, given that Steve Kerr inked another extension after plenty of buzz that he wouldn’t return (not to mention what looked a lot like an on-court farewell between Curry, Green, and Kerr at the end of their play-in loss). They may well try to split the difference between a ready-now player and a future piece—just as they did in the infamous Wiseman “two timelines” era that you mentioned earlier. Whatever the case may be, the Warriors are in a prime position to pounce on any prospect who drops further than expected. What they choose to do with that opportunity will tell the basketball world quite a bit about how they see the state of the league—and how they see themselves.