A Scout’s Eyes: Stefan Todorovic | A Sharpshooter Hiding in the Margins
Pepperdine star wing Stefan Todorovic has been on a ridiculous scorcher this season and deserves your attention!
Like most U.S.-based evaluators, Stefan Todorovic first popped up on my radar during his prep career. The Belgrade, Serbia native moved to the States in 2020, where he attended Prolific Prep (Napa, CA), a prominent basketball program with a rich tradition. Before arriving in the States, Todorovic was a standout for Serbia’s U19 Partizan NIS in the U19 ABA League, with averages of 18.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game.
While at Prolific Prep, Todorovic would become a three-star prospect with a shooter’s reputation, earn an invitation to the 2020 Nike Hoop Summit (which was canceled due to Covid), and commit to Southern Methodist University (SMU).
After two seasons at SMU and one at San Francisco, he’s found his footing at Pepperdine as a senior. Listed at 6’8”, the Serbian sharpshooter is averaging 19.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.2 assists with outstanding 49.3/41.2/89.3 shooting splits. The potential is being realized for Todorovic this season.
An NBA Ready Shooter and Tough Shotmaker with Off-Ball Translation
Renowned NBA Player Development coach Phil Beckner preaches that “shooting is the separator.” There is no doubt that it can be the separator for Todorovic. The 6’8 wing is torching the nets this season. Just take a look at his numbers via Synergy:
41.2% 3P on 5.7 attempts per game
44.4% 3P on 72 catch-and-shoot attempts
43.2% 3P on 44 guarded catch-and-shoot attempts
46.4% 3P on 28 unguarded catch-and-shoot attempts
36.8% 3P on 38 spot-up attempts
36.4% career 3P shooter on 286 total attempts
Todorovic brings an element of both pure shooting and tough shotmaking ability. He’s a confident shooter that’s capable of knocking down standstill, movement, and catch-and-shoot threes alongside pull-up three flashes (45.5% on 11 pick-and-roll handler attempts). He shoots it with a high and quick release, allowing him to shoot over contested closeouts and smaller defenders without much interference. This really comes into play in his pull-up game where he loves to fire off after a dribble or two as well from hang dribbles.
While he isn’t a real dynamic isolation scorer nor really flies around off-ball screens, Todorovic understands how to navigate and set up off-ball screens to get free for scoring attempts from deep and in the mid-range. At his size, his utilization of sound footwork, misdirections, and quick nudges to operate them are impressive. Because of his screen navigation, shooting, and on-ball craft, Todorovic will be a weapon in the halfcourt, particularly within a structured offense.
Pepperdine’s emphasis on off-ball screening and movement in their offense has allowed Todorovic to display glimpses of the effective cutting that will be necessary when operating off the ball. His timing and willingness have been notable; I just want to see more of that, particularly within the flow/read-and react-situations instead of called sets and actions.
Like any other must for a shooter, Todorovic is comfortable attacking closeouts to make decisions as a scorer and playmaker. He’d rather get to the pull-up than all the way to the rim. When he does get to the rim, whether it’s on closeout attacks or primary self-creation, he’s a below-the-rim finisher (just two dunks) with serviceable craft and touch-finishing at a 67.2% clip at the rim on 61 attempts).
I’m not quite sure just yet where I firmly stand on his secondary playmaking upside, but his feel and functional ball skills give him appeal as a connective passer and someone who can attack bent defenses.
Is There Defensive Value or at Least a Net Neutral Path?
Being a limited athlete who’s neither very quick laterally nor vertically explosive does indeed make Todorovic’s defensive translation a bit of an uphill battle.
He will be someone that opposing NBA teams will look to target in isolation and hunt switches against. However, what Todorovic does possess and must continue to leverage defensively to combat and/or provide value is his blend of size, length, feel, and an improved effort.
Putting more plays on film where he’s leveraging those traits for positive results, like the one below against Gonzaga, will be critical. He does an excellent job of playing two by stepping up in help to cut off Nemhard’s drive, then utilizing his length to still play the strong side corner passing lane for the steal leading to the assist.
The 1.1 stocks per game mark (17 total steals to one block) isn’t this eye-popping number, but it at least points to some defensive playmaking and activity to further Todorovic’s case as a potentially serviceable defender at 6’8”. He’s collected at least one steal over his last six games, including multiple steals in three of those games.
Rebounding is another avenue for Todorovic to add defensive value. His 5.5 rebounds per game clip (4.8 defensive) doesn’t project him to be a volume rebounder, but his willingness to consistently get on the glass both in and out of his area and at his size, he can aid teams—especially when going small.
Outlook
Todorovic is a shoot-pass-dribble wing with NBA positional size that’s flirting with the acclaimed 50/40/90 club (50% FG, 40% 3P, 90% FT) through his 17 games played so far.
With this breakout season coming as a senior under career-high usage (26.2%), there is understandably both hesitation and excitement from evaluators to buy in on this type of prospect.
I’m buying his shooter’s reputation and production. Todorovic should be monitored closely for the rest of the season and deserves heavy consideration for the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament, where he’ll have the opportunity to impress NBA evaluators with his coveted marriage of size, three-point shooting, and tough shot—all key ingredients of an NBA rotation player.
He’s a potential move on the margins that would be worth making on an Ex-10 and/or two-way deal. If his numbers maintain, there should be a real conversation about Todorovic in the Top 60.
Buzzer Beaters
Pepperdine freshman guard Jaxon Olvera should be tracked as a long-term NBA prospect. At 6’5 with ball skills, multi-level shotmaking, passing upside, and a ton of confidence, there is a compelling foundation to work with.
Cooper Flagg’s fantastic performance against SMU (24 points, 11 rebounds, three assists, and three stocks) tightened his stranglehold on the top spot. It’s reasonable to believe that Flagg’s floor is as a disruptive two-way wing that innately makes winning plays while averaging 16 to 20 points per game.
Speaking of over-thinking……Johni Broome is one of the prospects that I’m most scared of missing out on and am having a difficult time placing on my board. His production and improving shooting touch cannot and should not be denied. He’s also a transfer-up success story from Morehead State that I always love. It’s Broome’s lack of ideal athleticism and big man size without a reliable (though capable) jumper that still has me concerned. Everything else screams impactful rotational big.