A Scout’s Eyes: The Re-emergence of Earl Timberlake
Timberlake is the frontrunner to win both the America East Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year awards. Will his game translate to the NBA?
Earl Timberlake’s path to becoming one of the more unique and versatile players in college basketball hasn’t been linear. The DMV native is a former four-star prospect that ranked 30th in the 2020 class on the RSCI with an exceptional basketball pedigree that includes playing at the storied DeMatha Catholic High School (Hyattsville, MD) in the country’s toughest high school conference (Washington Catholic Athletic Conference) and for national AAU powerhouse Team Durant.
After committing to Miami, Timberlake entered his freshman season with first round buzz and showcased glimpses of his two-way potential (9.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.4 APG, 2.3 stocks) while being limited to just seven games (three starts) due to shoulder and ankle injuries.
Timberlake would leave Miami after one season for a year at Memphis before establishing himself at Bryant across the past three seasons as their engine and a headline NBA prospect in the America East Conference.
He’s stuffed the stat sheet each season at Bryant and has saved his best for last, with averages of 16.3 points, 8.5 rebounds (2.8 offensive), 4.6 assists (2.8 turnovers per game), and 2.4 stocks per game while shooting 48.6% from the field. What’s been working for him, and could it translate to the NBA?
What works offensively…
Timberlake thrives as a downhill attacker that finishes at and around the rim—67.5% of his attempts are at the rim. He melds what can be an overpowering combination of physicality and ball skills to navigate ball screens as a slasher and operate in the low and mid posts for both scoring and playmaking opportunities. It won't be to the extent he does at the collegiate level, but he’ll still be able to capitalize on switches by shorter/less physical defenders as a pro.
The drop in his rim-finishing numbers from last season to this season (68.2% to 57.4%) is somewhat concerning, but does make some sense. At the rim, Timberlake is a solid athlete with some quick-twitch athleticism but has inconsistent touch. He understands how to utilize his footwork and both hands to find finishes angles. Timberlake still projects to be a reliable finisher, especially in more of a pure play finisher role, but the numbers are still worth monitoring.
Perhaps the versatile wing’s top and most valuable NBA skill is his playmaking. In his final campaign, Timberlake is dishing out a career-best 4.6 APG. His vision and playmaking feel has long been a foundational piece of his game, as he’s capable of finding teammates off a live dribble or when stationary out of the post to cutters in the half-court and leading the break as a decision-maker.
He isn’t best suited to be a primary initiator and ball screen operator like he is at Bryant, and that’s more than fine. NBA teams will need him to attack closeouts, handle second side pick-and-rolls, and be a connective passer. All of those qualities are within his skillset.
Expected to be more of a play finisher than play creator, Timberlake’s diligent cutting and aggressive offensive rebounding (2.8 per game) are two areas where he can add value as an off-ball threat. As Bryant’s hub, Timberlake doesn't always get to showcase his cutting prowess. There is more to extract there as a play finisher and playmaker.
Defense is the way!
Timberlake’s defense will be his key to playing time on an NBA floor. Dating back to his roots, the heralded wing was known as a competitive and physical defender who was all but guaranteed to give an opponent’s best players fits. This is a mentality that I believe he can—and will—need to be more consistently engaged with to make his mark.
Equipped with positional size, Timberlake leverages his strength, length, and athleticism to defend multiple positions and shine as a defensive playmaker (2.4 stocks per game). Additionally, he’s capable of switching one through four and making an impact as a point of attack defender.
His history as a rebounding wing that will aggressively snag rebounds in and out of his area (career 7.1 RPG, 5.2 defensive) will not only help bigs clean the glass and end possessions, but also serve as another linchpin to Timberlake’s versatility as a grab-and-go scoring and playmaking threat.
Wait, what about the shooting?
It’s time to address the elephant in the room—Timberlake’s shooting. His 23.2% career mark from three on low volume/desire to shoot them (56 career attempts, 0.5 3PA/G, 111 games played) and funky mechanics are major red flags. Understandably, it’s likely the top reason why he’s outside of consensus Top 60 boards and, as of now, projected to be an undrafted free agent.
Looking at the other side of the coin, there is room to be optimistic about Timberlake potentially developing into a capable three-point shooter that can at least make enough of his open attempts to keep defenses honest. This season, Timberlake is either setting or on pace to set career-high shooting numbers in a few notable areas. He’s shooting at his best clip from deep (37.5%, 0.9 3PA/G, 16 total attempts) and at the free throw line (72% FT, 5.5 FTA/G), and he’s on pace to surpass his career high of 20 total three-point attempts, which he set two seasons ago.
Recently, he buried four of his six attempts against Maine. It’s absolutely a small sample size, but his tangible improvement in production and attempts shouldn’t be ignored.
Going back to the mechanics, he could be a bit of a project there. However, Timberlake’s mechanics were a bit smoother and more projectable on the grassroots level and even at Miami, so I’m hopeful an NBA shooting coach can help restore something close to it.
Could another role or archetype fit?
If Timberlake doesn't shoot it well enough to fit a 3-and-D role, is there another path to NBA success? Although it might take some creativity and buy-in for all parties, there is an established avenue forward…
Welcome to the Gary Payton Jr./Bruce Brown spectrum of outcomes.
GPJ II and Bruce Brown are both versatile, defensive-oriented perimeter players with ball skills and playmaking feel that come with frightening three-point shooting concerns. Both adjusted from being high-usage players and play initiators in college to their current NBA roles, which heavily feature them as play finishers, screen setters, short rollers, and dunk spot operators alongside their defensive versatility.
Timberlake possesses a similar skill set to GPII and Bruce Brown, which could aid him in adjusting and shining in that archetype/role. However, there are some differences to keep in mind. Brown and GPII had better shooting indicators and are probably an athletic tier ahead, while Timberlake is two inches taller. For additional context, Timberlake’s counting numbers compared to GPII and Bruce Brown’s final collegiate seasons and career NBA numbers are below:
Earl Timberlake (Bryant, 2024-2025)
16.3 points, 8.5 rebounds (2.8 offensive), 4.6 assists, 2.4 stocks and 37.5% from three (0.9 3PA/G)
Gary Payton II (Oregon State, 2015-2016)
16.0 points, 7.8 rebounds (2.4 offensive) , 5.0 assists , 3.0 stocks and 31.4% from three (2.2 3PA/G)
NBA Career: 5.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.0 stocks per game and 32.7% from three (1.3 3PA/G)
Bruce Brown (Miami, 2017-2018)
11.4 points, 7.1 rebounds (1.3 offensive), 4.0 assists, 2.1 stocks and 26.7% from three (3.2 3PA/G)
NBA Career: 8.9 points, 4.2 rebounds (1.1 offensive), 1.4 stocks and 33.6% from three (1.8 3PA/G)
Outlook
Earl Timberlake’s versatile skillset and NBA-ready frame should afford him the opportunity to navigate two paths to making an NBA team: 1) in a traditional 3-and-D wing role, or 2) a hybrid 3-and-D wing role akin to Gary Payton Jr. or Bruce Brown. NBA teams must decide which path of development is optimal and what resources to utilize, considering that both avenues will require patience and a committed development plan for an older prospect.
The pre-draft process should provide stages for Timberlake to shine with both the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament and G League Elite Camp likely in his future. Timberlake warrants Exhibit 10 contract interest and should no doubt be on an NBA roster during Summer League.
Buzzer Beaters
Bryant’s Rafael Pinzon and Barry Evans are two prospects to track. At 6’6”, Pinzon is a shooter (46.2% from three) and shot maker with positional size. Evans is a long and rangy wing (6’8”) scorer with defensive tools.
If Isaiah Evans declares for the draft to receive feedback, I wonder if a team would give him a first round guarantee. I certainly would—positional size, NBA shooting talent, microwave scoring, and defensive upside. Every time he steps on the floor, his talent and infectious energy are apparent. He’s bound to have some big moments come March and the always-anticipated games against UNC, and if I had to guess, the NIL and lottery pick lure will ultimately get him to return.