A Scout’s Eyes: The Spectrum of Outcomes | Envisioning Low and Median for the Top 2025 Bigs (Part One)

In part one of two, Jam envisions the low and median outcomes for four of the top bigs in the 2025 class.

Visualizing NBA comparisons and outcomes is an important aspect of the evaluation process to consider. It’s a chance to offer a visual representation of the potential projection and impact of prospects while getting creative and further thinking critically about the process. While the ceiling is always important to understand and visualize, it must be balanced with a realistic look at floor/low and median outcomes. With a really intriguing group of bigs in this class, let’s envision some of those critical low and medium outcomes.

Khaman Maluach | Freshman | Duke | 7’0.75” | 7’6.75” wingspan | 253 pounds

2024-25 Stats: 8.6 PPG | 6.6 RPG (2.7 off) | 0.5 APG | 1.3 BPG | 0.2 SPG

Khaman Maluach arguably has the highest ceiling of any big in the class. Still fairly new to basketball, he’s equipped with a tremendous blend of physical tools, movement skills, and enticing touch flashes. There is a clear NBA-ready role for him as a play-finishing and shot-blocking big while he works to reach his two-way defensive anchor potential.

At Duke, Maluach steadily progressed and played some of his best basketball in the latter portion of the season. His development with more experience is an encouraging sign because patience will still be needed with him. He’s still a project that will require real care in his development plan, but he has the ability to still impact games on both ends because of his functional physical tools in a simplified role.

Low Outcome: Christian Koloko

If Maluach’s shooting never hits, Koloko makes a ton of sense as a long and rangy play finishing big who blocks shots and has some defensive versatility. Koloko is still trying to find his footing after the promising start to his career with the Raptors was halted due to his medical situation, but he was looking like a long-term rotation piece.

Median Outcome: Mark Williams with real shooting touch

With comparable measurables to Maluach (7’2” with a 7’6” wingspan), Williams fits the same play-finishing shot-blocking role and has thrived early in his career (when healthy) despite some similar concerns to Maluach from the lack of explosive vertical pop, goaltending issues, and defensive positioning/technique troubles. There was some hope that Williams could explore shooting some open threes or strictly corner threes because of some touch indicators (soft touch flashes around the rim, 72% free-throw mark, and mechanics), but nothing has come to fruition.

Thomas Sorber | Freshman | Georgetown | 6’9.25” | 7’6 wingspan | 263 pounds

2024-25 Stats: 14.5 PPG | 8.5 RPG (2.7 off) | 2.4 APG | 2.0 BPG | 1.5 SPG

Although Thomas Sorber’s season was cut short due to injury, his two-way talent, feel, and toughness were undeniable. For many, he’s a top two big in the class because of his offensive potential, defensive playmaking, and scheme versatility. A return to Georgetown for his sophomore season seemed like it could cement him in the lottery or Top 10, but he’s a guaranteed first rounder this year and likely still will be a lottery pick regardless.

Low Outcome: Gorgui Dieng

Dieng entered the NBA as a defensively tilted big with some scheme versatility and an underrated offensive skill set. Despite only making one three in college (1/3 3PA), he developed into a solid shooter across his ten NBA seasons (35.5% on 552 3PA) and was a serviceable role player for the majority of his career.

Median Outcome: Wendell Carter with more impactful defense

The Sorber-Carter offensive similarities are there. Both skilled bigs with similar physical tools that understand how to blend power and finesse offensively to effectively operate from the post areas and the perimeter. While Carter isn't a knockdown three-point shooter (31% career), he is a capable one. With Sorber, he projects to be a capable shooter as well due to his touch indicators and fluid mechanics.

Derik Queen | Freshman | Maryland | 6’9.25” | 7’0.50” wingspan | 248 pounds

2024-25 Stats: 16.5 PPG | 9.0 RPG (2.3 off) | 1.9 APG | 1.1 BPG | 1.1 SPG

Derik Queen is easily one of the most offensively gifted bigs in the class. He’s a supremely talented passer with feel, ball skills, self-creation ability, and shot-making upside. While there are some limitations defensively, his basketball IQ and quick hands show up consistently as a defensive playmaker. The Alperen Sengun high level comp blend is appropriate with a couple of low and medium outcome players on that spectrum to consider as well.

Low Outcome: Trevion Williams with more offensive upside

The former Purdue star thrived as a playmaking offensive hub by leveraging his feel, vision, ball skills, and power. Sharing many of the same core skills, Queen offers a versatile skill set with more offensive creativity and versatility as a shot-creator and shot-maker.

Median Outcome: Mid-career Boris Diaw with more offensive upside

Diaw’s successful 14-year career was rooted in his ability to leverage his basketball IQ, ball skills, size, and shot-making ability to shine as a versatile offensive player without a consistent three-point shot. This is a model within Queen’s skill set, whether it’s as a primary or secondary offensive option.

Joan Beringer | KK Cedevita Olimpija (Croatia) | 6’11 | 7’3 wingspan

2024-25 Stats: 4.9 PPG | 4.6 RPG | 0.5 APG | 1.3 BPG | 0.4 SPG

Joan Beringer is another project in the class, but he’s loaded with explosive athleticism and NBA positional tools. He’s the third-youngest player in the class and has only been playing basketball for roughly four years after switching from soccer. Although Beringer is still growing with the game, he brings value as a play finisher shot blocker and rebounder while offering potential defensive scheme versatility because of his dynamic tools and high motor.

Low Outcome: Yves Missi

Despite being raw, Missi started and impacted games on both ends by leveraging his physical tools and motor. Beringer likely won't be starting games as a rookie but should be able to add value in the same ways early in his career.

Median Outcome: Javale McGee

McGee’s outstanding physical traits translated to a clear NBA role, but it took a bit for him to settle in and become a consistent contributor. I wouldn't be surprised to see Beringer take a similar route if the team fit isn't right, particularly finding his way on his second contract or team.