A Scout’s Eyes: Walter Clayton Jr.’s First Round Case

Walter Clayton Jr., one of the top players in the SEC and a Wooden Award Late Midseason Top 20 watch list member, is solidifying his draft stock with a stellar senior season. Is WCJ a first rounder?

Walter Clayton Jr. shining as a Power Four athlete isn't much of a surprise for many. The 6’3” guard was a dual-sport, three-star recruit with offers from major programs like Florida, Georgia, and Notre Dame. The surprise for most, especially now, is those offers were for football, not basketball!

With basketball as his first love, Clayton Jr. would focus exclusively on it for his last two years of high school. This would lead to him committing to Iona and legendary head coach, Rick Pitino. Across his two seasons at Iona, Clayton Jr. averaged 12 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.4 APG, and 1.8 stocks per game on 40.6% three-point shooting en route to winning the 2023 Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) Player of the Year.

After Pitino’s departure to St. John’s, Clayton Jr. entered the portal with a reunion with Pitino considered the most likely outcome. Instead, the Florida native committed to the University of Florida where he has been a vital member of Todd Golden’s squad for nearly two full seasons. This season, as a senior, Clayton Jr. is leading one of the most talented teams in the country and a national title contender with averages of 17.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 4.3 APG, and 1.8 stocks per game while shooting 36.3% shooting from three.

Despite his tremendous success in the Southeastern Conference (SEC), the toughest conference in the country over the past few seasons, Clayton Jr. hasn't quite received the expected consensus first round buzz. That needs to change. I present to you Walter Clayton Jr.’s first round case.

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Exhibit A: A Translatable, High-Level NBA Skill

For whatever reason, it seems like Walter Clayton Jr. doesn't get mentioned enough amongst the top-tier shooting prospects in this class. He’s a lethal shooter whose three-point shooting and floor spacing will allow him to be an immediate contributor for any NBA team.

A career 37.9% (5.5 3PA) three-point shooter, Clayton Jr. is launching a career-high 7.6 attempts from beyond the arc this season and connecting at a 36.3% clip—including eight games with four or more made threes. The Florida star owns compact and repeatable mechanics, a quick release, deep NBA range, and real three-point shooting versatility.

Furthering his marksman case, Clayton Jr. is torching the nets in areas and actions where he’s expected to receive his NBA attempts. Via Synergy, he’s knocking down 42.9% of his transition threes (35 3PA), 43.5% of his spot-up threes (46 3PA), and 36.4% of his handoff threes (22 3PA).

His catch-and-shoot numbers are superb (41.5% on 65 3PA) and align with the play-finishing, ancillary guard role that he can thrive in on an NBA floor. Playing alongside primary creators, Clayton Jr. should receive more open looks than he’s accustomed to and that’s big trouble for defenses (44% on 25 unguarded 3PA this season, 56.6% on 53 unguarded 3PA last season).

Exhibit B: Dynamic Mix of Pure Shooting, Tough Shot-making, and Ball Skills

Clayton Jr. is equipped with a dynamic mix of pure shooting (career 37.9% three-point clip and 88% free throw mark, including leading the nation in free-throw shooting at 95.3% in 2023), tough shot-making and ball skills that allow him to be a viable scoring and shot creation threat across all four levels.

From drifting and fading jumpers to contested pull-ups to floaters and contact rim finishes (63.5% FG at the rim), Clayton Jr. consistently showcases the concentration, touch, and scoring instincts of a tough shot-maker. One of my favorite stats that signal his alignment of pure shooting and tough shot-making is his tremendous 40% mark on contested catch-and-shoot threes (40 3PA).

Exhibit C: Reliable Pick-and-Roll Production

Whether it’s as a primary or secondary ball-handler/initiator, all NBA guards must be able to comfortably operate pick-and-rolls for scoring and playmaking opportunities. Ranking in the 74th percentile in points per possession as the pick-and-roll handler (via Synergy), Clayton Jr. is a quality ball-screen operator who wins with his craft, strength, creative handle, burst, and multi-level shotmaking.

His 31.1% mark (61 3PA) on threes as the pick-and-roll handler is a slight blemish on an overall stellar shooting resume, which is why I’m not worried too much about the low percentage there. Opposing teams would be foolish to go under screens and not respect his shooting prowess.

Although Clayton Jr. is more fearsome as a scorer in pick-and-rolls, he is still a quality playmaker that’s offered glimpses of some advanced passing reads. He’s more sure to make simple reads and leverage his scoring gravity for drop-offs and kickouts to teammates.

Exhibit D: Defensive Playmaking

With any offensively oriented/titled prospect, it’s about doing enough defensively to stay on the floor and Clayton Jr. can certainly do that thanks to his defensive playmaking (career 1.8 stocks per game).

He does a solid job of leveraging his physicality, quick hands, and adequate length to get stops and be disruptive both on and off the ball. While he might not ever develop into a plus defender, the tools and production are there to envision at least a net neutral defender with some upside.

Closing Argument

In a game that highly covets three-point shooting and floor spacing, Walter Clayton Jr. is one of the most dangerous shooters and shotmakers in the class (40.6% 3P shooter on 3.9 3PA at Iona, 36.4% 3P shooter on 7.3 3PA at Florida). His floor presents a sharpshooting ancillary guard with ball skills that teams can trust to attack closeouts and run second-side pick-and-rolls while holding his own as a defensive playmaker.

Clayton Jr. is somewhere on the spectrum of the archetype that includes players like Seth Curry, Isaiah Joe, and Jared McCain. Based on his floor, production, and valuable spectrum of outcomes, Walter Clayton Jr. has a compelling first round resume that could become an open-and-shut case by Draft Day.