A Scout’s Take: Henri Veesaar is Cementing His First Round Status
North Carolina's Henri Veesaar is producing like a top big and first round lock in the 2026 NBA Draft class. What about Veesaar's profile is cementing his first round grade? How high could he rise?
Henri Veesaar’s emergence for North Carolina (UNC) alongside superstar freshman Caleb Wilson has been the exact type of return to frontcourt dominance that UNC fans have missed. His breakthrough began last season at Arizona while filling in for the injured Motiejus Krivas, who only played eight games due to a foot injury (9.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.3 APG and 1.1 BPG in 20.8 MPG). Adding in several strong games late in the season, including in the NCAA tournament, Veesaar propelled himself into one of the highest-ranked bigs in the transfer portal and an ideal match for UNC’s ideal play style.
Veesaar rode last season’s momentum into arguably the perfect environment in Chapel Hill for his game to grow and be showcased on a high level. The Estonian native and former member of the renowned Real Madrid Basketball Youth Academy is putting up 16.6 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.1 BPG, and 0.5 SPG on 65.2/50.0/64.2 shooting splits.
Not only has his emergence provided a jolt to UNC, but it’s done the same to the often maligned quality and depth of the 2026 big man class, especially for true centers/5s. What about Veesaar’s profile that’s allowing him to thrive this season and cement his first round stock with a potential lottery rise in the cards?
Offensive Profile
For Veesaar, it starts with his coveted pairing of size (7’0” and 225 pounds) and shooting. Those touch flashes and shooting priors are coming together exceptionally so far this season, with him sizzling the nets at 50% clip from three on 2.4 3PA per game (34 total 3PA). He’s building off his 32.7% mark (1.3 3PA, 49 total 3PA) last season and is on pace to set new career three-point shooting highs across the board.
I understand the three-point volume is still fairly small, and the jury is still out on just how good of a shooter he projects to be, but I’m still buying Veesaar at worst being a legitimate NBA floor-spacing big that teams must account for. Veesaar shoots with confidence, owns repeatable mechanics, soft touch, and a high release (37.5% 3P on 16 guarded catch-and-shoot attempts) that have all helped him develop into a viable spot-up and pick-and-pop shooting threat. Furthering his case as a big who can’t be left alone to shoot, he’s connecting 44.7% (47 3PA) of his unguarded catch-and-shoot threes over roughly the last season and a half.
Veesaar provides play finishing as a three-point shooter and also in the more conventional rim finishing sense despite lacking explosive physical tools. To compensate, he leverages a mix of size, length, soft hands, and mobility to find success. Veesaar is converting 75.9% of his rim attempts and ranks fourth in the country in dunks (33) while thriving on drop-offs, rim runs, pick-and-rolls, and offensive rebounds (2.4 offensive rebounds per game). There are still times where his finishing through contact and in traffic leaves more to be desired; however, his increased physicality and aggression at the rim over the years have been fruitful and encouraging for his NBA translation.
The passing feel is a real asset. Although Veesaar won’t be a hub, he offers connective passing with some versatility. Veesaar can find cutters out of stationary positions, run high-low sets, operate in the short roll, and continues to show glimpses of making easy passing reads when attacking closeouts. He’s even shown comfort running 5-4 pick-and-rolls as the ball-handler with multiple lob assists to Caleb Wilson out of it that could be worth exploring a bit more. Veesaar doesn’t really operate dribble hand-offs (DHOs), so evaluating his passing value there will somewhat be more of a projection. Based on his passing feel and functional handle, though, I don’t anticipate any major barriers to him becoming an impactful DHO player.
Defensive Profile
The biggest concerns with Veesaar are on the defensive end because of the challenges that his limited vertical and horizontal athleticism present. NBA teams will attempt to target him and force him to defend in space. As he does offensively, Veesaar must find ways to continuously leverage that mix of size, length, and mobility to produce stops in space, along with providing an adequate shot-blocking presence (1.1 BPG). UNC’s recent game against Florida State (FSU) was another illustration of the battle Veesaar faces. He was blown past by FSU guard Robert McCray V for a big dunk on a switch, then later was able to get stops at the rim on McCray V twice, one on a switch and the other in drop coverage (where he’s best at).
Bigs must rebound the ball, and at 9.4 RPG, Veesaar is dispelling the pre-season rebounding worries and proving to be a reliable glass cleaner. It’s fair to attribute Veesaar’s rebounding uptick to both an increase in minutes and the previously mentioned physicality jump. Ideally, Veesaar is paired alongside an athletic 4-man that can provide ground coverage and defensive playmaking. It allows some of his limitations to be masked as he adds defensive value on the glass and serviceable shot-blocking. There is only one Caleb Wilson, of course; however, the blueprint for the right partner archetype for Veesaar is there.
Closing Thoughts
Veesaar’s avenues to success as both a skilled 7-foot shoot/pass/functional dribbling big and stretch big shot-blocker make him a lock first rounder with the potential to rise into the lottery. Since his lack of ideal explosive athletic tools ultimately limits his rim-protection and anchor ability, Veesaar’s lottery upside is tied to his shooting evaluation. What tier shooter Veesaar falls into amongst NBA bigs and his draft peers will be the key question that I’m looking to answer for him. His skillset and role are ones that every NBA team values. Will they value it in the first round? We’ll see come June.