A Scout’s Take: New Place, New Role, and an Evolving Rodney Rice
USC guard Rodney Rice is evolving his game under Eric Musselman while boosting his NBA draft stock and USC's season aspirations.
Courtesy of the Premier Youth Basketball League (PYBL), I remember my first time watching Rodney Rice hoop. The PYBL, founded in 2014 by James Parker Jr. and Tarren Parker, is a competitive middle school league that attracts much of the top local talent here in the DMV and offers a tremendous platform for players to test themselves while being recruited by high school coaches.
The PYBL has featured names familiar to both NBA draft and college basketball fans. A few notable names include Derik Queen, Cam Whitmore, Jarace Walker, Donnie Freeman, Trevor Keels, and Judah Mintz.
Rice’s effortless shooting, advanced shotmaking, and workman-like approach instantly caught my attention. Paired with the fact that I would soon find out about his basketball bloodlines, I was quickly sold on his long-term upside and marked him as a “must track.” Rodney’s father, Rodney Rice Sr., played collegiate basketball at Boston College and Richmond. He ranks second in career three-point percentage (42.4%) and most threes made in a single season (85) for the Spiders.
After starting his high school career at Bullis School (Potomac, MD), Rice Jr. would shine for powerhouse DeMatha Catholic (Hyattsville, MD) and Team Durant (EYBL circuit) en route to earning four-star status and committing to Virginia Tech. A preseason broken ankle, followed by a fractured hand suffered in practice shortly after his return, stymied his NBA flashes and brief VT tenure.
His decision to return home as a Maryland Terrapin proved to be a fruitful one. Rice was an integral member of Maryland’s Sweet 16 team alongside fellow PYBL alum and eventual NBA lottery pick, Derik Queen. He finished third on the team in scoring (13.8 PPG) and second in assists, which seemingly set him up to take another leap forward this season in a familiar environment until Kevin Willard departed Maryland for Villanova.
Rice hit the transfer portal with significant interest from Villanova, Tennessee, Auburn, and Gonzaga before committing to the University of Southern California (USC). The results have been spectacular thus far as he adjusts to a new home, role, and responsibilities. Across six games, the 6’5” guard is averaging 20.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, six assists, and 1.4 steals (1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks) on 41.1/38.5/74.4 shooting splits.
What’s clicking for Rodney Rice, and how is he evolving as an NBA prospect under Eric Musselman’s NBA style offense?
Shooting is the Separator
Rodney Rice’s early projection of potential NBA skills has come to fruition. He’s a real-deal NBA three-point shooter and a multiple-level shotmaker that opposing teams must account for. Maybe it’s been the injuries (currently dealing with a shoulder injury suffered in the Maui Invitational) or the one-year collegiate sample size. Still, Rice has felt like a forgotten high-level shooter and shotmaker despite his reputation in the 2022 high school class.
After shooting 37.4% from three (5.9 3PA) at Maryland, he’s once again conducting string music. Through six games with USC, Rice is shooting 38.5% from the three-point line while increasing his volume (6.5 3PA) and overall usage (20.9% to 28.4%).
Nearly every time he shoots, it looks and feels like the ball is going in. He owns compact, repeatable mechanics, a quick release, great lift, deep range, and plenty of confidence.
The shooting situation doesn’t matter either. From standstill and movement attempts to pull-ups and catch-and-shoots, he’s able to comfortably maintain his mechanics alongside a remarkable ability to get balanced and his shoulders square to the rim.
With Maryland, Rice displayed his off-ball gravity and prowess around Derik Queen’s offensive hub skillset, and Ja’Kobi Gillespie proved to be one of the better lead guards in the country. Connecting on 40.4% of his unguarded catch-and-shoot threes (52 total 3PA) in the halfcourt and 36.4% of his 30 three-point attempts off screens furthers Rice’s off-ball value.
With USC, Rice is the team’s engine and has the freedom to explore his offense, especially out of pick-and-rolls, completely. His possessions as the pick-and-roll handler have jumped from 17.4% to 41% amid creative, advanced, multi-level shotmaking.
Rice has a feel for manipulating ball screens to set up re-screen attacks and snaking ball screens into his signature pull-up game or rim attempts. Building on last season’s small sample size, where Rice drained 46.2% of his 13 pick-and-roll threes, he’s hitting them at a 50% clip this season on 14 attempts.
If he wants to develop into a three-level scorer, his rim-finishing must reach another level. A limited athlete and below-the-rim finisher, Rice will need to rely upon touch and scoring angles in the paint to compensate against NBA trees. Things could be trending in the right direction, though. Rice only shot 33.3% at the rim in the halfcourt last season (no dunks) and is up to 54.5% on 11 attempts so far (no dunks).
Lead Guard Growth
Rodney Rice’s growth as a lead guard/point guard is quietly one of the best stories in the Big Ten and all of college basketball. It’s a new role for him on the collegiate level, and it’s mostly been a seamless transition (6.0 APG to 1.8 TO). In half of his games played, he’s collected at least eight assists, including a career-best 10 assists while recording the second triple-double in program history in a win over Illinois State (21 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists).
There’s always been a foundation of smart passing, but now, with more responsibility and opportunity, Rice is making more advanced reads and decisions both more frequently and with greater creativity. He’s capable of reading the backline of defenses, dishing slick pocket passes, throwing skip passes with both hands, and delivering wrap dimes in traffic.
Even if NBA teams don’t view him as a full-time lead guard/point guard, Rice’s experience with USC will allow him further to add NBA value and versatility to his offensive game. On the floor, Rice is establishing himself as a connective playmaker that can be trusted to operate ball screens and attack closeouts.
Closing Thoughts
A new place and new role at USC under Coach Musselman has unlocked Rodney Rice’s game. He’s an NBA-level shooter and shotmaker with basketball bloodlines who’s evolving his playmaking, floor game, and offensive versatility.
While he continues to make strides as a defender that can functionalize a projectable 6’5” frame for stops and event creation, his progression into a more well-rounded offensive player can help compensate for some of his defensive deficiencies.
If Rice can maintain a similar production and development path once he returns from his shoulder injury, USC has a real Big Ten Player of the Year candidate and top 60 caliber NBA prospect on their hands. Rice’s continued evolution is being televised right in front of our eyes, and it’s time for the draft community to tune in.
Quick Cuts
Chad Baker-Mazara remains a polarizing prospect due to his age (25) and concerns about on-court maturity. Despite those concerns, he’s putting up career-best numbers and is stepping up to lead the undefeated Trojans in Rice’s absence. His positional size, plus length, shooting, and defensive playmaking all point to an NBA-ready 3-and-D fit on the margins.
Alabama’s versatile 6’8 freshman, Amari Allen, is emerging as their X-factor and a legit potential one-and-done candidate. Allen’s profile matches the NBA’s emphasis on shoot-pass-dribble wings with defensive tools. 20 points, 11 rebounds (4 offensive), four assists, and one block in a victory against Clemson this week.
Freshman Derek Dixon came up clutch for UNC in a thrilling win over Kentucky by calmly knocking down a step back three with under a minute left to put UNC ahead 64-62, then hitting the game-winner with about 17 seconds left via a contested off-hand finish. UNC will need Dixon’s shooting and playmaking to complement its exceptional big man tandem of Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar. If Dixon wasn’t on your radar, he should be now and is poised to deliver more big moments for UNC.
GW’s Garrett Johnson appears to be all the way back from his injuries and setbacks. Equipped with an NBA frame at 6'8”, Johnson is a laser shooter that’s averaging 15.3 points, five rebounds, 1.3 assists, and drilling 40% of his threes (5.7 3PA).