A Scout’s Take: Plotting Magoon Gwath’s Potential Lottery Rise

Could the San Diego State star emerge in a 2026 big man class that's in flux to start the season?

Led by Darryn Peterson (Kansas), Cam Boozer (Duke), A.J. Dybantsa (BYU), Mikel Brown Jr. (Louisville), and Nate Ament (Tennessee), the pre-season rightful consensus is that the top of the 2026 class has the potential to be special. However, the rest of the lottery picture, especially for bigs, is a bit more cloudy.

Dating back over the past six draft classes (2020-2025), there has been at least one big man selected in the lottery. In that span, each class had at least two bigs selected in the lottery except for 2021 (Evan Mobley). Last cycle, we saw three bigs taken there in Murray-Boyles, Maluach, and Queen.

With no clear-cut leader to begin the year, the race to join the next group of lottery-bound bigs will be fluid and fascinating. The common top contenders are Chris Cenac Jr., Jayden Quaintance, Caleb Wilson, Alex Condon, and Henri Veesaar. But what about San Diego State’s Magoon Gwath?

The 7-foot, 210-pound redshirt sophomore out of Euless, Texas, arguably has a ceiling that’s comparable to any big man in the projected class. Gwath’s NBA buzz slowly started to build during his true freshman season as a member of San Diego’s scout team while recovering from summer ankle surgery. That buzz grew and materialized in his breakout last season, when Gwath won both the Mountain West Freshman of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year with averages of 8.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.4 SPG, and 2.6 BPG (#1 in the MWC, #7 in the NCAA) across 26 games started.

Gwath’s draft stock is volatile in very early mocks/boards: No Ceilings (18th), ESPN (54th); both Bleacher Report and The Athletic ranked him outside their public Top 60s. With that expected wide range, he’s back at San Diego State to build off his standout season after reportedly turning down transfer opportunities in the portal from Michigan and Kentucky among others. Why does Gwath’s game pique the interest of NBA evaluators, and where can he improve in order to facilitate a rise into the lottery?

Top of the Class Trait

In the NBA, defense is often what gets you on the floor quickly as a young player, and thankfully for Gwath, it’s his calling card. Any conversations about the best defensive bigs in the class MUST include him.

Gwath’s ability to leverage his outstanding mix of size, length (unofficial wingspan reportedly in the 7’3” range), movement skills, and timing makes him one of the top-tier shot blockers and rim protectors in the class. He set the school’s single-season freshman blocks record (68) while his 14.5% block percentage finished second in the country behind only Malcolm Wilson’s 15.7% mark (Queen’s University of Charlotte).

He’s an excellent weak-side rim-protector with impressive instincts and the ground coverage to swallow up and alter shots at and around the rim. It’s not just in the paint where Gwath affects shots, though. He often showcases his length and fluidity to block/alter shots when closing to contest jumpers and when defending out in space. Gwath will need to clean up his propensity to fall for shot fakes, but he’s at least shown impressive recovery tools and hasn't fouled a ton either (1.9 fouls per game in 24.9 MPG).

Figuring out Gwath’s ideal NBA defensive deployment and level of defensive versatility will be pivotal. Head coach Brian Dutcher’s methods could provide somewhat of a blueprint. Last season, Dutcher primarily utilized Gwath as a roamer and menacing lurker from the four/power forward spot while pairing him alongside the 6’10”, 230-pound Jared Coleman-Jones at the five/center.

I’m expecting more of Gwath roaming at the four in double big lineups this season, especially considering his obvious need to continue adding strength to enhance his battle against opposing bigs in the paint. With Coleman-Jones graduating, there are questions about who will receive the majority of the center minutes. This could provide an opportunity for Gwath to play more five, put together solid film defending against physical bigs, and explore his potential scheme versatility. He’s already shown some enticing flashes in ball screen coverage, both as a drop and switch defender.

To round out his fascinating defensive profile, rebounding is a low-hanging fruit that he must grab this season. 3.4 defensive rebounds per game and 5.2 RPG in total just won't cut it. There are going to be stretches on both the collegiate and NBA levels where Gwath will be the lone big on the floor and needs to be relied upon to be the primary rebounder.

Some of the lack of volume rebounding can be attributed to still needing adequate strength to effectively hold box outs and positioning, but Gwath is still equipped with the size, length, and mobility to become a more impactful glass cleaner. To close the season, he pulled down double-digit rebounds in three out of his last nine games, including a career-high 13 rebounds against Nevada.

Modern Big Framework

Stretch bigs with functional handles like Gwath offer tremendous offensive value because of their ability to space the floor, attack closeouts, and keep the offense flowing. At 7’0”, he shot 37.8% from distance on 1.7 attempts per game (45 3PA total) alongside his evolving ball skills, which have upside in dribble handoff, short-roll, and grab-and-go situations.

Shooting is the foundational base for his offensive game, operating mostly from spot-ups and closeout attacks. Gwath is a comfortable three-point shooter with a high release and hints of movement shooting. Per Synergy, Gwath drained 46.7% of his spot-up threes (30 3PA) and 41.2% of his unguarded catch-and-shoot threes. He’ll have a real case as the best shooting big in the class, but in order to cement confidence in evaluators, it’ll be essential this season to replicate similar shooting numbers in conjunction with an uptick in volume.

Gwath employs his size, length, and fluidity to win near the basket, converting 65.2% of his rim attempts in the halfcourt. However, there are still some concerns about his play finishing against physicality and how formidable he’ll be as an NBA lob threat. The strength theme comes into play here again, of course, but also Gwath’s lack of ideal vertical pop and explosion. His implementation of physical tools and touch as compensators for that lack of vertical pop and explosion at and around the rim should be monitored.

Closing Thoughts

Magoon Gwath offers a dynamic combination of rim protection (2.6 BPG), three-point shooting (37.8% on 1.7 3PA per game), and functional ball skills that NBA teams yearn for in their bigs. Producing another convincing three-point shooting season with an increase in volume and becoming a more impactful rebounder (5.2 RPG) are key areas that should raise both his floor and ceiling. If Gwath can stay healthy (ankle surgery as a freshman, knee surgery this past off-season), there might not be a better rim-protecting stretch big option in the class—an archetype that absolutely warrants lottery conversation and value every cycle.

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