A Secret Third Thing for Ace Bailey
Almost every discussion surrounding Ace Bailey and the 2025 NBA Draft is whether he's a star or a bust... but what if there were other options?
The further into the 2025 NBA Draft season that we’ve gotten, the fewer certainties there are. The ones that remain, such as Cooper Flagg going first overall, have even seen their projected destinations turned on their heads by the zany lottery. The supposed certainties that never came to pass, such as many draftable prospects electing to return to their respective schools, have thrown out many of what people “knew” about this draft class in the preseason.
One thing that is still certain is that everyone who is even mildly involved in the draft has an opinion about Ace Bailey. After a surprising college choice at Rutgers to team up with fellow five-star Dylan Harper, Bailey had an up-and-down season with the Scarlet Knights. The team, despite some lofty preseason Top 25 rankings, failed to make the NCAA tournament, which amplified the spotlight on Bailey’s single college season.
Bailey came into Rutgers with sky-high expectations for his game, and it’s an open argument on whether he delivered enough to warrant them. While Bailey was among the top three on the team in points, rebounds, steals, and blocks, there were real concerns about his shot selection and game management. His passing issues, alongside his defensive quibbles, sparked a polarizing debate amongst draftniks and fans alike.
There are two major camps for Ace Bailey, with few willing to listen to the other side’s arguments. One side sees Bailey’s star traits, such as his athleticism and shot-making, and views him as a future potential All-NBA player at the league’s most coveted position. The other focuses on Bailey’s inefficiencies, advanced statistical metrics, and worrisome habits to reason that his ceiling is nigh-impossible to reach and the likelier outcomes of his game could be bust territory.
The answer to what Ace Bailey will be in the NBA is still being written. There’s the massive elephant in the room of Bailey’s control over his career, but there’s a secret third thing to consider with Bailey: what if, instead of being a star or a bust, Bailey is something else? What does Bailey’s game look like if he, as is technically most likely when considering every possible universe, neither reaches his ceiling nor crashes into his floor?
Let’s find out!
Just Boom or Bust?
By now, there have been thousands of worthy words written on Ace Bailey and his potential in the NBA. It’s worth revisiting both sides of the argument, however, as Bailey has been a consensus Top 5 prospect for much of the cycle in many modern media circles. That’s inflamed both the Bailey parties, as they see it as either a validation of their beliefs or an affront to the science and art behind drafting NBA players.
The star side for Bailey has some clear things to point to. For one, he’s got the physical attributes that are ideally suited for a wing player in the NBA. While he may not have the exact Kevin Durant measurements that many were hoping for, he’s still 6’9” in shoes and has a wingspan of over 7’0”. That, alongside his long strides and a 34.5” vertical, makes Bailey one of the more dangerous leapers in the entire draft class. He’s a terror from anywhere on the court to uncork a dunk that few other humans can do.
Bailey also uses that same athleticism to make a significant impact as a defensive playmaker. Bailey had a 1.7% steals percentage and 4.1% blocks percentage, both of which are solid statistical indicators as a wing, and each should translate to the NBA level. While his steals were mainly in the flow of the game, Bailey does have the rare length to be able to swat the occasional deep look and disrupt drives from players his size.
Outside of his marvelous athleticism, Bailey’s other star indicator is his ability to self-create tough buckets in the halfcourt. While some decry his shooting due to his 36.4% success rate on dribble two-pointers, per Synergy, Bailey demonstrated the necessary footwork, release point, and tough shot-making to remain a threat to get his team a bucket over multiple defenders or when the clock was winding down.
That same shot-making, however, is where the criticisms from the other side begin. Bailey was content to settle for these tougher mid-range jumpers instead of using his incredible speed to get to the rim more often. The fact that Bailey attempted 3.7 pull-up twos, per Synergy, compared to just 3.4 attempts at the rim per game, is a real, concerning indicator for Bailey if slotted into a starring role.
Another issue critics point to with Bailey’s game is his limited passing ability. Bailey was a better passer than his 1.2 assists per game and 0.57 assist-to-turnover ratio would suggest, but not by much. He was rarely looking to make plays for his teammates, got tunnel vision on his drives and jumpers, while not showing the proper touch or reading of the floor with his passes themselves. Sure, Bailey only had an 11.0% turnover percentage, but that just further highlights how little impact he had passing-wise at Rutgers this past season.
With some of Bailey’s strengths doubling as his foibles in the eyes of the beholder, most people on either side of the argument would say there’s no room for in-between. Either Ace Bailey will hit and be a star-level wing that could compete for All-NBA spots sooner rather than later, or he’ll flame out of the modern NBA due to his bad habits and lack of positive impact outside of his inefficient scoring package.
Viewing him through such a reductive lens, despite his confident comments about his future stardom at the draft combine, leaves out the likeliest outcomes for Bailey: that he falls somewhere in the murky middle. That may be both boring and nebulous, but the floor and ceiling of prospects is only a part of the calculus front offices have to draft players. Drafting for a player’s projected ceiling leads to disappointment when they don’t reach it; drafting for a player’s projected floor leaves valuable contributors on the board.
Instead, it’s worth considering what Ace Bailey’s roles outside of star and bust are. There are two that stick out more than others, given Bailey’s production, athleticism, and fits at the top of the draft, and both have their utility in winning basketball games. The archetypes are, in my made-up pseudoterms, volume scoring wing and 3-and-D wing. Both are, in my mind, more likely than Bailey becoming a star or crashing out of the league.
Secret Third Thing #1: Volume Wing
The idea of a “volume wing” is neither new nor novel. As long as basketball has been played, there have been players on the wing who’ve had a heavy offensive load to carry. As the push for efficient offense has increased, however, the high-volume wing players of yore have lost their past star protections and seen their status on a team lose luster.
In today’s NBA, that archetype is both evolving and disappearing. Last season, of the Top 50 players in shot attempts per game, only 13 were true wing players. Of those thirteen who took more than fifteen attempts per game, I’d immediately take Jayson Tatum, Franz Wagner, Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Jaylen Brown, Kawhi Leonard, Jalen Williams, and Trey Murphy III out of my “volume wing” archetype due to their defensive strengths or passing pizzazz. That leaves Paolo Banchero, Brandon Ingram, Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, and RJ Barrett as potential “volume wings” in today’s NBA landscape.
It’s a fascinating group to consider, with some similarities but notable differences as well, particularly about this archetype. Both Banchero and Ingram have made All-Star teams with their high-volume play, although arguments can be made that each is a good enough passer to outweigh their focus on shooting. Both players also have clear frame advantages to their game, as Banchero is closer to a “volume big” than a wing, while Ingram’s wingspan cures many of his potential ills. Such are the pitfalls of vague categories like “volume wing” that I’ve invented.
The other players on the list, in Miller, Bridges, and Barrett, might be closer analogs for what a Secret Third Thing could look like for Bailey. Notably, all three players had better assist percentages on higher usage than Bailey, while having comparable turnover percentages in their draft years. It’s not a perfect comparison to these players, but I see enough similarities to see this as a potential outcome for Bailey.
All of Barrett, Miller, and Bridges rely on their athleticism and size to create their shots in the halfcourt. They all, like Bailey, have an advanced dribble package to create for themselves, while also having great vertical pop to throw down some thunderous dunks. Bridges, in particular, while being a bit shorter than Bailey, has a similar height-to-wingspan ratio and made some eerily similar plays in college to Bailey.
With how Miles Bridges’s career has gone, it’s hard to chart it as a success from a purely basketball perspective. I cannot ignore his deplorable off-court behavior, which may taint my perspective, despite my best efforts. However, even from a purely basketball perspective, Bridges has real issues as a player. He has never contributed to winning basketball with his volume shooting ways, has stagnated as a wing defender, and has had a negative Net Rating while on the floor. Granted, the team was worse with him off, but there isn’t much evidence that Bridges has been a winning basketball player in his NBA career.
Brandon Miller is too early in his career to make a real determination on what he can be, but, ironically, he plays on the same team as Bridges. Miller’s length and shot-making are his strongest suits, but he’ll need to continue to improve his defense and passing to escape this increasingly detrimental label. A wrist injury didn’t help his developmental trajectory, but as Chet Holmgren and Cade Cunningham have shown, early injuries don’t have to derail development entirely.
I view this as the likeliest outcome for Bailey’s career if he doesn’t hit his star outcomes, as he’s already played in a high-volume mold his entire career. Some of the habits he’s developed have been woven into his basketball DNA, which makes it harder to adjust the entire way he approaches the game. That doesn’t mean, however, that there isn’t another pathway that’s more middle-of-the-road than Bailey’s polar opposites outcomes.
Secret Third Thing #2: 3-and-D Wing
One of the most popular archetypes in the modern basketball lexicon, aside from the heliocentric star or unicorn, is the 3-and-D wing. Fitting a type of player who can be around anywhere from 6’4” to 6’10”, 3-and-D players are some of the most valuable players on the floor at any time. Being both a reliable perimeter defender and a dead-eye shooter from distance gives teams extra flexibility in lineups. It hits on two of the most necessary parts of modern basketball lineups.
Given its importance, the label is both thrown around with excitement, but is also treated as if it were readily available. There are only a limited number of wing players who can guard the wide variety of wing archetypes on the floor while also spacing properly. If every team had as many players as they claimed were 3-and-D players, there wouldn’t be as much value placed on the role. Instead, two-way players of this nature are in high demand and can make a significant impact on every team.
That demand magnifies the importance of this being one of Ace Bailey’s secret third outcomes. It may seem like a step down for Bailey to become a “role player” in some eyes, but consider how many players you would consider stars in the NBA yourself. It’s a fraction of the total player base in the league, which doesn’t include worthy G League players or those who are excelling internationally and could potentially play in the NBA. Not being a star is neither a bad outcome nor any reason that Bailey couldn’t make eight or nine figures in his career on title-winning teams.
The only thing keeping Bailey from becoming a 3-and-D wing will be his mentality; it’s certainly not a lack of ability. Bailey shot 135 threes this year, canning them at a modest 34.8% clip, but it’s clear when watching him that he has stupendous shooting capabilities. With a high, quick release point, the ability to fire even when off-balance, and an utter disregard for contests, it’s hard to build a better wing jump shooter in a lab than Ace Bailey.
Bailey will need to hit these shots at a higher clip once he reaches the NBA, but there’s some hope that his volume at Rutgers affected his perspective as a shooter. Bailey shot a meager 24.4% on his dribble jumper three-pointers, according to Synergy, while hitting 38.7% of his 93 catch-and-shoot threes, which he attempted at a rate of 3.1 attempts per game. That would certainly be good enough at the next level, although it is a bit of a smaller sample to truly project Bailey as an elite catch-and-shoot player.
The defensive side has been scrutinized almost as profoundly as Bailey's passing, which has always struck me as a bit odd. While he does make mistakes as an off-ball defender and has a higher center of gravity, Bailey will have just turned 19 heading into his rookie season in the NBA. It’s common knowledge that most freshmen are inconsistent defenders who take a few years to develop into consistent NBA-level defenders, but all of the traits are there for Bailey to become one.
Outside of his steals and blocks, Bailey has solid defensive fundamentals that are bolstered by his great size on the wing. He’s improved at his closeouts, staying down enough to let his length do the damage, while still having the vertical leaping to contest even seven-footers. Bailey also does a good job staying attached to wings of various sizes on the perimeter, even if he does rely on his athletic gifts to help him catch up on drives. Per Synergy, Bailey held opponents to a “Very Good” ranking on shots at the rim and jumpers, most of which either came on drives or spot-up opportunities.
Hitting three-pointers on one end and contesting them on the other is the purest distillation of what a 3-and-D wing needs to do. The fact that Bailey could step onto an NBA court tomorrow and do that with ease makes him an attractive draft prospect even without his star ceiling. Based on his positives, there’s a certain player comparison that is looking more and more possible by the day for Bailey: Andrew Wiggins.
Wiggins and Bailey have a lot in common: comparable physical measureables, similar athletic profiles as leapers and athletes, a propensity for taking and making tough mid-range jumpers, and, at times, an over-reliance on jumpers. Both were consensus top prospects who had good, not great, freshman seasons, which fell short of their pre-draft projections. Even the stylistic similarities and unique mannerisms are there in their games.
Wiggins started his career in Minnesota as a volume wing, which didn’t lead to much success for the team outside of when Jimmy Butler was there; however, he experienced a career renaissance in Golden State. Wiggins’s role on the court was streamlined into a high-level 3-and-D wing player, and in my eyes, it wasn’t a coincidence that he was both part of a title-winning team and earned his only All-Star selection by becoming elite in this role.
To me, this is one of the higher-end but likelier outcomes that Bailey could have as a draft prospect. He could do the same things that Wiggins did for the early 2020s Warriors: guard the best player on the wing, stripe open spot-up triples from beyond the arc, and have the space to attack an already-bent defense as a tertiary creator. It may not be as flashy a role as a future star, but it’s one that Bailey could star in on his way to contending for titles with his future team.
Dreams of the Lottery Teams
What that future team is, however, could be a heavy determinant on what type of outcome Bailey will have at the next level. It’s always true for players that context matters, but the immediate developmental context for drafted players can significantly impact their entire career trajectory. Enough touches in one spot versus a pigeonhole role at another can be the difference between not getting a second contract.
This year’s NBA Draft lottery was one of the zanier in memory, which has thrown a wrench in the draft projections for Ace Bailey. The ascent of the Mavericks, Spurs, and 76ers sent shockwaves through most mock drafts, which had had Bailey as the third pick for most of the season. Now, there’s more doubt than before about Bailey, along with some real possibilities that he slips farther than any would have pegged preseason.
Let’s start with the Philadelphia 76ers. They remain one of the likelier spots for Bailey to get drafted, even if it’s shakier than one might expect. The 76ers are caught in a vicegrip of health due to Joel Embiid: if he were able to get healthy again, they’d be contenders, but betting on Embiid to be healthy enough to contend for a full season cannot be trusted anymore. That leaves them in a position where they may try to tow the line of contention and build up their young core.
Shouldn’t that leave Bailey as a premier option for the 76ers? Not exactly. The team wouldn’t mind fitting him next to an aging Paul George to form a switchable, undersized frontcourt. Bailey would also have the dream scenario of getting to play with his favorite player of all time and learn from a former MVP-contending wing. Whether Bailey would receive enough touches to have a significant impact on the outcome, however, may be the issue. With George, Embiid, and Tyrese Maxey on the team, it may come down to how much Daryl Morey believes that Bailey can be a 3-and-D wing in his rookie and sophomore seasons—which could lead the team to choose a player like V.J. Edgecombe or Kon Knueppel instead.
The Charlotte Hornets are also a murky fit with Bailey, given the fact that they already have two similar players in Brandon Miller and Miles Bridges. It’s hard to visualize a lineup with all three in it that can properly guard wings and forwards, much less get enough shots to support all three of their diets. That makes it unlikely that the Hornets take Bailey even if he falls to them at four, even if they view him as a potential 3-and-D wing.
The first team that I feel would snatch Ace Bailey up, regardless of the outcome they saw for him, is the Utah Jazz. The Jazz are in the middle of a torrid rebuild, having furiously bottomed out in the Western Conference. The team has drafted a ton of young talent in their frontcourt and in the backcourt, but outside of Cody Williams, hasn’t had a promising young wing on their roster.
Enter Ace Bailey. Utah is one of the few teams that may give Bailey the full chance to be a star player early by giving him a longer leash and a veritable shot diet. Even if they don’t, the Jazz are in desperate need of a player who can help their 24th-ranked offensive efficiency. Bailey may not be able to fix the league-worst defensive efficiency on his own, but he could be part of an eventual solution for the team.
After the Jazz, if they were to go in another direction, we’d enter territory where teams would have to consider Bailey simply on a positive value basis. The Wizards, Pelicans, and Nets have varying degrees of need or opportunity to offer Bailey, but all three teams were hoping that their lottery luck was different. They’d all at least heavily consider Bailey if he were to slip to them at #6, #7, or #8, and I would be surprised if all three said no.
All three of these teams are deep enough in their respective rebuilds that Bailey has an outside shot to become a star, but is more likely to slot into either a volume wing role or into a 3-and-D archetype. I don’t have a favorite or preferred destination for Bailey, as all of the lottery offers a lot of potential outcomes for his career. Still, the 76ers, Jazz, and Nets offer him the broadest swath of outcomes, in my opinion.
A Secret Fourth Thing?
Despite the chatter across the interwebs that Ace Bailey can only be a bust or a star, the truth is much broader. There are far more possible outcomes for Bailey than just reaching his ceiling or falling to his floor. Bailey’s divisiveness as a draft prospect may lead to his draft stock volatility, but his career in the NBA is just being written.
I’d consider it a lower outcome for Bailey were he to fall into the volume wing archetype simply. It may look pretty on paper and get him certain highlight packages across YouTube, but it’s proven harder than ever before to be a winning basketball player when your strongest suit is volume scoring. Bailey does have some striking similarities to other notable volume forwards of the past, but that doesn’t mean his most likely career outcome is this role.
It’s equally likely that Bailey’s secret third option could be a 3-and-D forward. That archetype, where Bailey gets to use his shooting to scorch teams and his athleticism to lock players up, is a surefire recipe for a winning basketball player. Bailey would not only be a direct determinant of his team’s success, but would also have a long NBA career in the bag.
It may not seem likely that Ace Bailey is a secret third thing compared to his polar opposite outcomes, but disregarding these possibilities does him and his total game a disservice. Bailey is in charge of where his career will go other than his starting city, which means it’s up to him to rise as high as he can, but either secret third thing would still be a positive outcome for his career and make him more than worth a Top 5 pick to an NBA team.
I like ace in a more simplified role that doesn’t expose his lack of functional on ball athleticism due to his stiffness and bad handle. He’ll be able to catch and shoot, attack a close out into a 1-2 dribble pull up, and not have to playmake or make decisions in the PNR. On defense, he should be fine since he’s 6’9 with good length, and an above average athlete. He’s got potential on that end, motor needs to be more consistent but he can move his feet and i like the rim protection flashes. Off the ball, he should be able to cut all he likes, since I feel as if his athleticism is explosive when used without the ball, or when he’s in a catch and rip situation (he really showed his athleticism when he did this, dunking on defenders multiple times) not having to create an advantage. If he’s given power early in his career (really don’t hope this happens) and converts his looks on middling efficiency while contributing nothing as a playmaker and minimal as on ball slasher……. That’s not good at all. Even if he’s put into a high usage role down the line, he’ll have to improve his handle, passing, and finishing (not really a big weakness but this’ll make scoring easier) in order to maximize his desired outcome. Either way, he should provide an impact early in his career. The 3p volume should go up.