Adrian Wooley's Mammoth Upside

6'4" guard Adrian Wooley surprised the basketball world at Kennesaw State. Now, at Louisville, he's primed to take the draft world by storm. Maxwell makes the case for Wooley as a first-round pick.

I spend a lot of time with my daughter. Specifically, I spend a lot of time in the car with her. I’m the one who takes her to and from school. Because we don’t want to raise an “iPad Kid,” we do a lot of talking on our drives. She’s a curious kid. One day, we got on the topic of dinosaurs. She asked why they weren’t alive anymore, and I explained the prevailing theory that they got wiped out by a giant meteor. Folks, when your four-year-old daughter asks, “and even the BABIES got killed by the giant meteor?”, it’s not a fun way to start the morning.

This led to one of her new favorite topics of discussion: animals that went extinct. The one that’s really captured her imagination is the woolly mammoth. She’s fascinated by why they didn’t survive, whereas other animals that look like them (elephants, rhinoceroses) have managed to reach this point in history. A free zoo by our house has both a statue and a skeleton of a mastodon, a relative of the woolly mammoth. But to her, they’re all the same. If it’s big, had tusks, and isn’t alive anymore, it’s a woolly mammoth. Once a day, she’ll ask if I can show her a picture of a woolly mammoth on my phone. They’re a big part of her life right now.

All this thinking and talking about woolly mammoths keeps taking my basketball-rotten brain to one place, and that’s Adrian Wooley’s mammoth upside.

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Who is Adrian Wooley?

If you’re late to the party on Adrian Wooley, fear not, as basically everybody else was late, too. The 6’4” guard balled out at Paul Bryant High School and for Alabama Fusion on the EYBL circuit. Still, he didn’t generate heaps of attention, as he was labeled a three-star recruit and ranked 308th in 247Sports’ Class of 2024 composite rankings. Wooley had a slew of mid-major offers, and he chose to attend Kennesaw State. He made an immediate impact for the Owls. Wooley first generated mainstream traction with a 10-point, seven-assist outing in an upset win over a Rutgers squad that featured two future top-five picks in Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey. As the season progressed, his production never slowed down. By the time March rolled around, Wooley was widely regarded as one of the best mid-major prospects in the country. He won the Conference USA Rookie of the Year Award and was one of the few freshmen in the country to make an All-Conference First-Team. He hit the transfer portal and committed to Louisville, which has put together what I consider to be the most loaded backcourt in the country.

Shooting

If you’re going to be an on-ball perimeter player at the NBA level, you need to be able to keep the defense honest with your jump shot. Adrian Wooley does that and then some. To start, he’s great at the basics. The lefty drilled 42.7% of his 103 catch-and-shoot three-point attempts this past season, per Synergy. What’s more, 64 of those shots were guarded, so it’s not like he was getting the easiest looks in the world. Plus, he displayed some enticing movement prowess. Wooley does a great job of relocating to maximize his openings. He’s also able to run pretty hard into his looks before slamming on the brakes and going up with an impressive level of balance in his base. As a result, Wooley went 5-for-13 on transition threes and 8-for-20 on handoff triples.

What intrigues me most about Wooley’s shooting arsenal, though, is the star stuff. He’s an electric on-ball shot-maker, and that’s a big upside differentiator for him relative to other guard prospects. Wooley went 42% from long range on three pull-up three-point attempts per game, per Synergy. We’re not just talking about a guy who can take a wide-open triple when a defender sags under a ball screen. Wooley is a genuine, lethal self-creator behind the arc. He’s able to play low with the ball, string together multiple dribble moves, and quickly shift directions while covering large swaths of ground with his lunges. Few are better at shaking defenders and generating separation than Wooley. And just like on his movement shots, he does this all while maintaining a strong level of balance. In totality, this makes him an exceptionally difficult cover who will provide top-notch spacing.

Interior Scoring

Still, there is no shortage of guards who can make impressive shots behind the arc. Again, though, Wooley is different. In this case, it’s because he presents a much bigger threat as an interior scorer than those who can typically match his shot-making ability. There are three factors I want to focus on—that Wooley likes to get downhill, that he has the tools to get downhill effectively at the next level, and that he’s pretty good at the rim.

The first is simple. Wooley actually wants to apply pressure to the rim. Per Synergy, 43.6% of Wooley’s halfcourt shots came at the basket. He’s not a guy who falls in love with tough pull-ups, or a dude who wants to do the pretty stuff. He wants to get the best shot possible. There’s not much junk in his shot diet. Wooley took 176 halfcourt twos last season, of which 146 came at the rim. Only 21 were mid-range pull-ups, and he did a masterful job of avoiding floaters, launching only eight of them. He also took one hook shot, if you were curious as to what was missing, and he made it.

When talking draft scouting, though, the most important question is always scalability—whether or not what a player does in college will work at the next level. When it comes to Wooley’s rim pressure and finishing, I’m optimistic. For starters, Wooley has a good frame, as he’s listed at 6’4” and 200 pounds. Staying with the physical side of things, he takes big, long strides to the rim, and he has a good first step. He also changes speeds well, which maximizes his burst and explosiveness. Then, there’s his physicality. Wooley holds his line well on drives; he has real bounce off one foot, and he’s fearless of contact at the basket. His breakdown dribble game is effective, enabling him to get by his man on a consistent basis, whether he has a ball screen or if he’s cooking in isolation. These traits led to him registering a .416 free-throw rate, and given that he went 76.9% at the line, that further bolsters his overall efficiency. Plus, he’s not just a guy who throws his body into people trying to draw fouls. To get to the last point, Wooley is effective inside, going 56.2% on his halfcourt rim attempts. That’s a solid number overall, but when you factor in the volume and foul-drawing components, it’s spectacular. Wooley’s intelligent shot diet, physical tools, driving craft, and touch all bode extremely well for his pro prospects.

The big swing area in this department (and it’s going to come up again later) is Wooley’s lack of ambidexterity. He is far, far more comfortable going left and playing with his left hand. Per Synergy, Wooley drove left 75 times and drove right only 30 times. And even when he does go right, it feels like he’s trying to find a way to go back left. Even when opponents really sit on his left side, he can remain forceful trying to go that direction, leading to needlessly difficult attempts and blocked shots inside. The other issue here is that Wooley doesn’t always seem to read the defense beyond his man. He’ll leave his defender in the dust, only to not account for the glut of traffic behind him, leading to a forced, difficult look inside. By thinking beyond his man more consistently, Wooley should find greater success.

Playmaking

There are ups and downs to Adrian Wooley’s playmaking game, but I’m far more intrigued than I am concerned. For starters, Wooley registered a 23.4 AST%, a rock-solid mark for a freshman combo guard of his size. His aforementioned handle, speed, and physicality help him consistently create advantages. Once he’s on the go, he does a great job of picking up the low-hanging fruit. He’s adept at punishing help from the strongside corner with a left-handed, live dribble pass. When it’s just him and the rim protector, he operates with a sharp sense of fluidity, taking the layup when it’s there or making the slick, last-second drop-off pass to the big man to get his teammate an easy two points. There’s not a lot of nonsense here, either. The tape didn’t show many moments of Wooley trying to thread impossibly small needles or getting too cute with his deliveries. He’s trying to make the right play out there. In short, he’s going to collapse defenses, and when he does, he knows how to read help and make simple decisions well.

Still, there’s work to be done. Wooley will need to reduce his turnovers to maximize his potential. Last year, he averaged 3.6 APG to 3.3 TOV, and his 18.3 TOV% is higher than you’d like to see in a player you’d hope to get serious on-ball equity out of. The ambidexterity issue I’d touched on during the interior scoring section is a real issue here, too. Wooley gets panicky when he has to go right, especially against double teams and aggressive ball screen coverages. His command over the ball could be better, as his handle can sometimes get wide, leading to strips and lost balls. He can also pick up his dribble at inopportune times, allowing his defender to swarm him while he has to quickly make a difficult decision. Lastly, Wooley needs to anticipate help in passing lanes better when he goes more off-script with his reads.

As I said, though, I’m generally optimistic on this front. Wooley will always have the traits that lead to advantage creation, and he has the scoring gravity to command defensive attention everywhere on the floor. He’s already doing the simple things well. And while his turnover rate was poor, he did manage to reduce it throughout the season. He’s already shown that he’s capable; he just needs to be more consistent. He needs more reps, and I believe that he’s talented enough to earn them. As time goes on, I anticipate that the game will continue to slow down for him and his results will improve.

Defense

Going into this exercise, I felt pretty “blah” about Adrian Wooley as a defender. It’s not something he’s known for, and statistically, he doesn’t really pop on paper. His 0.9 DBPM is far from something to write home about, his 2.4 STL% is good but not great given his level of competition, and his 0.3 BLK% was quite concerning. After digging into the tape, though, I actually think he’s really solid on this end of the ball.

Wooley holds up well on an island, whether it’s guarding an isolation possession or an opponent trying to attack him from a spot-up. Wooley’s balance is a strong suit here, just like on the base of his jump shot and with his offensive directional changes. He can get low and mirror his opponent’s footwork without being too dramatic in his response, enabling him to keep the ball under control consistently. His rugged, physical approach shows up on this end, too. He’ll attack with his first step, and he doesn’t like to cede ground to his man. Wooley is far more likely to bump into his opponent with his chest and knock them backward than he is to play too far back and allow them to get closer to the basket. His hard-nosed approach makes his man uncomfortable, leading to bad shots, dribble pickups, and turnovers.

Wooley could stand to be more consistent when guarding in ball screens, though. A lot of it has to do with the fact that he can be more reactive than proactive in these settings. He’ll get clipped by screens, fail to stay connected, and have to play his man from behind. He didn’t look to step over the screen and body up his man, even when he was on a high-level shooter. Other times, he won’t anticipate the screen properly and come out of his stance in an effort to chase his way back into the play. It could be a symptom of schematic tactics or communication woes that aren’t his fault, but it felt like Wooley played further back and less physically in this setting than when he was in isolation.

Despite his mundane defensive playmaking numbers, I was encouraged by how Wooley guarded within a team construct. He visibly talks and points a lot on film, which is always a great sign. He’s consistently engaged in the action, which allows him to be on time with rotations and as a helper. He picked up a lot of his steals simply by paying attention and being in the right place at the right time. That may sound like a backhanded compliment, but it’s not—it shows his maturity, restraint, and commitment fundamentals. He covers ground well, which will be important in the ball-movement-heavy NBA. Wooley also seemed to know the scouting report well, sticking closer to off-ball shooters like Taelon Peter from Liberty while sagging off players who provided less of a threat from beyond the arc. I don’t think the raw stock numbers tell the full story here. In total, I view Wooley as a capable point-of-attack defender with the physical tools required of a modern guard at the NBA level who also knows how to play away from the ball.

Context

When scouting a prospect, it’s important to ask a few questions about the context in which they played. What was a player asked to do, and how well did he do it? What will he be asked to do at the next level, and how did he do in those settings? How often did his team run NBA-style actions? What wasn’t he asked to do that he could excel at doing in a different environment?

Sometimes, we can get a really clear contextual read on a player. Brandon Miller at Alabama is a great example of this. They played an up-tempo game and took a lot of threes, more similar to an NBA style than to an archaic, throwback, post-up-oriented system you sometimes see at the college level. Plus, he got to play with the ball in his hands a lot more than other wing-sized players at other schools. As a result, Miller’s projection was pretty straightforward. He was obviously a good shooter and a rock-solid decision-maker, but he struggled inside the arc due to his subpar physicality and issues playing through contact. Defensively, he wasn’t the best lateral mover, but he was solid within a team concept. And surprise, surprise, the Brandon Miller we’ve seen in the NBA looks quite a bit like the one we’ve seen in college.

Other times, it’s not so simple. Sharife Cooper generated a ton of buzz after averaging over 20 points and eight assists per game at Auburn back during the 2020-2021 season. Like Miller, he got to play on the ball a lot relative to his position. While his 51.9 AST% and .560 FTr raised eyebrows, there were scalability concerns. At 6’1” and a listed 180 pounds, Sharife Cooper was small by NBA standards.

Additionally, he went 22.8% from deep and shot 45.1% at the rim in his small, 12-game college sample. If Cooper wasn’t a knockdown guy, and he had poor traits and production as a finisher, and he wasn’t much of a defender, what equity would any of his strengths carry at the NBA level? Front offices were skeptical. Cooper slid into the second round, and he still hasn’t managed to find an NBA spot.

Context can be your best friend or your worst enemy. Sometimes, it paints a clear picture. Other times, it makes you look better than you really are. Conversely, a bad context can disguise a player’s gifts. Some players are given the benefit of the doubt, while others have to climb their way out of the hole created by suboptimal surroundings. When it comes to Adrian Wooley’s context at Louisville, it’s quite precarious.

The Cardinals’ backcourt is outrageous. I won’t spend too much time waxing poetic about each player, but we’ve got to know what we’re working with here. There’s highly touted freshman Mikel Brown Jr., a projected top ten pick and playmaking wizard. There’s Ryan Conwell, a 6’4” powerhouse with one of the best sharpshooting portfolios in college basketball. There’s Isaac McKneeley, another 6’4” marksman with some playmaking sauce in his back pocket. Then, there are guard skills present in the frontcourt. Kasean Pryor and Aly Khalifa had a 17.7 AST% and 32.6 AST%, respectively, during their last seasons.

This could go in any number of directions. If you’re looking at it purely selfishly, from an “Adrian Wooley draft stock maximization” standpoint, it’s a dicey predicament. If Mikel Brown is eating up the on-ball reps, he’s flanked by more proven shooters than Wooley, and the secondary playmaking is farmed out predominantly to frontcourt players, suddenly, Wooley’s usage opportunities will be squeezed. Conversely, I tend to think that playing alongside other talented players both makes players look better and helps them actually become better. There’s also an argument to be made that this blend of on-and-off-ball play could allow Wooley to show NBA teams exactly how he could be best weaponized at the next level.

But I say all this to say—in this context, I won’t be living and dying by counting numbers. It will be about identifying how Wooley is adapting, playing off his teammates, exploiting the opportunities he gets, and what type of effort he is bringing off the ball on both ends of the floor. And if Wooley’s stock does take a dip this year because he doesn’t drop 20 PPG or whatever, he could make for an excellent “buy low” candidate the following season.

Conclusion

If you want to take a cautious approach with Adrian Wooley, I get it. He only played two games against Top 50 opposition last year and faced a single high-major program during his freshman year at Kennesaw State. He turned the ball over a lot. He’s left-hand dominant. His stock rates left a lot to be desired for a mid-major player. He’s entering a situation where he’s one of the youngest and least proven players on the roster, and there’s heaps of depth at his position. If that’s too many things for you to worry about, I understand.

Personally, I’m far more excited than worried. Adrian Wooley has all the traits I look for in a modern guard. At 6’4” and 200 pounds, he has legitimate positional size. But it’s not just that he has it, it’s that he knows how to use it and moves like an NBA player. He’s a polished marksman, both off the catch and off the dribble. Defenses have to respect him, and players have a hard time staying in front of Adrian Wooley. He’s shifty, he’s got great balance, and my goodness is he tough. He can get to his spots through craft or by sheer determination. He’s a threat to score at the rim. He makes simple decisions really well. Defensively, his determination and physicality should enable him to guard the positional spectrum far better than most guards. His off-ball instincts and ground coverage are on point.

While you can go through the details of his game with a fine-tooth comb and pick nits within the intricacies of his process, I think it’s every bit as important to zoom out sometimes. And when you look at the big picture with Adrian Wooley, there aren’t a lot of boxes he doesn’t check. Size, speed, shooting, finishing, on-and-off-ball equity, defensive skill set, it’s all here. Adrian Wooley is what I want in a modern guard, and the traits he’s shown so far point to mammoth upside. While he’s on radars, I don’t think we’ve fully appreciated what his exact skills and production mean in the modern league. Championship-winning rosters are dotted with multi-faceted, athletic, high-skill, high-feel, high-motor players like Adrian Wooley. For those reasons, he’ll enter the season as a lottery pick on my draft board.

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