Arthur Kaluma is on the Cusp

Arthur Kaluma has been on NBA radars for a long time, and he's quietly made the improvements that evaluators have hoped to see from him before the 2025 NBA Draft.

Sometimes, the timeline you have in your head isn’t always the one that plays out in reality.

Take Quentin Grimes, for instance. Using the RSCI metric, he was the 8th ranked recruit in the 2018 high school class. Hyped up as an intriguing “big guard” prospect, the idea was that he was going to go to Kansas, kick people’s teeth in, and jet to the NBA after a single college season. He did indeed only spend one season at Kansas, but it wasn’t for the reason people expected. His freshman year was seen as a letdown. He scored an inefficient 8.4 points per game, barely broke even from an assist-to-turnover standpoint, and was often the scapegoat for a team that bowed out in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. At year’s end, he transferred to Houston, and this was in an era before seemingly every player swapped jerseys every off-season. Transferring was rare and stigmatized at the time.

But Quentin Grimes still got to the NBA, and he’s going to be there for a long time. He didn’t meet expectations in college immediately. Still, he continued to evolve and improve. By the time his junior year wrapped up, he’d become a dribble-pass-shoot wing who could guard a few positions and bomb threes. He ended up hearing his name called at the end of the first round during the 2021 NBA Draft, and he’s had a great start to his pro career.

Arthur Kaluma was on the cusp. He is now, but he was before, too. For those who don’t remember, Kaluma’s close to the 2021-2022 college season was one of the best in the country. During conference and NCAA tournament play, he averaged 15.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG, and 1.8 APG for an injury-riddled Creighton squad. Throw in a big 6’7” frame, a willingness to shoot, and an aggressive downhill playstyle, and Kaluma was an intriguing “ball of clay” prospect. Sure, his defense was inconsistent, his jumper would come and go, and his passing left a lot to be desired. But raw production, athletic traits, and aggressive downhill mentality made evaluators excited. In our inaugural 2023 NBA Draft board, we ranked Kaluma as the 14th best prospect in that class. We here at No Ceilings, and the scouting world as a whole, was expecting a leap from Kaluma.

It didn’t happen. At least, it didn’t then. To be fair, Kaluma got better. As a sophomore, he hit a greater percentage of his threes and reduced his turnovers. But he wasn’t fitting the world’s idea of his timeline. As a result, he was written off. When our 2024 pre-season boards came due, he didn’t make the top 60. Kaluma transferred to Kansas State, where he saw another uptick from deep, but he still struggled with turnovers. This year, he began the season firmly under the radar, this time with the Texas Longhorns. But quietly, beneath the surface…things changed. While he may have been out-of-sight, out-of-mind to an extent, Kaluma made many of the improvements that evaluators had been hoping to see in past years. Once again, Arthur Kaluma is on the cusp. And given his current projection, he could be one of the best value propositions in the 2025 NBA Draft. Before we get into it, though, I’d encourage you to check out my interview with Arthur Kaluma! You can watch it on YouTube here or listen to it on our podcast feed here.

Shooting

At one point in time, Arthur Kaluma was an, “if he shoots it” guy. As a freshman, he made only 26.5% of his threes and 67.1% of his free throws, which is far from ideal. However, he’s improved from long range every single season. His percentage has climbed from 26.5% to 31.1% to 34.5% to 35.9% over the years. From both an efficiency and volume (5.9 attempts per 100 possessions), Kaluma grades out at a rock-solid level for a forward prospect. He improved his numbers at the charity stripe every season, too, having converted 78.4% of his free throws this past season.

I feel pretty good about how Kaluma’s shot could scale up to the next level. While a majority of his threes were standstill spot up shots, they weren’t the easiest looks in the world, either. Per Synergy, 50 of his 81 three-point attempts were classified as guarded, and he only saw a marginal dip in efficiency when going against closeouts. He keeps his mechanics consistent, gets enough elevation, and has a high enough release to shoot over the hands of oncoming defenders. There’s a little bit of dynamism in here, too. Kaluma can move into his shot while running in transition, back pedaling after setting a screen, or even pull-up off the dribble if a defender gives him space off the dribble.

Attacking the Basket

Okay, so shooting isn’t the main sell with Kaluma. It’s imperative that he be a solid shooter at the next level in order to find both opportunity and success, to be fair. But the reason I started with his shooting is because if he can be an average shooter, that will open up the best element of his game, which is his ability to attack the basket. Let’s start with the pure data. Per Synergy, 42.5% of Arthur Kaluma’s halfcourt shots were taken at the rim, and he made 65.4% of them. All the more impressive, according to BartTorvik, only 35.7% of Kaluma’s shots at the basket were assisted. In total, we have a forward who can create his own looks downhill, get to the rim at will, and finish at a high level.

In scouting, the question is always, “can this scale up to the NBA?” I’m optimistic when it comes to Kaluma’s finishing because the sheer number of ways he has to get to the basket. When he has a straight line to the basket, he takes big, long strides to the rim and can get up well off of one foot. When operating from a spot up, he has an excellent pump fake that routinely gets defenders to leave their feet. But even against shorter closeouts, his dribble combinations and shake allow him to beat defenders. His use of misdirection, shoulder fakes, and stutter moves often get opponents off balance before he even puts the ball on the deck. If he’s matched up against a smaller player, he can simply plow right through them. Simply put, he has a lot of ways to win. And when he gets to the basket, his powerful frame, bounce, and coordination allow him to routinely finish through contact. Kaluma’s diverse downhill portfolio is one of the best and most underrated in this class.

Playmaking

In past years, my biggest gripe with Kaluma was his ball control issues. He always felt a little too sped up, leading to charges, errant passes, and drives into heavy traffic. This year, Kaluma played a much more refined game. His 12.6 TOV% was a career low, and grades out well relative to long-term NBA players in their pre-draft season. His assist-to-turnover mark does too, and he posted a positive ratio there (1.8 to 1.6) for the first time in his career. He’s playing a more poised brand of basketball. Kaluma has done a better job of exercising command over his dribble. He’ll read help defenders on his way downhill and make the correct, simple pass. He can reliably find the roller out of a ball screen. Best of all, he’s had his best flashes to date, occasionally wiring the rock through a tight window in a way that would’ve been unfathomable a few years ago.

Kaluma still has his rough spots. There are times where his body comes unglued when he tries to do too much barreling into the paint. He’ll occasionally force a tough pass. But he’s come a remarkably long way this past season. For a long time, he was woefully behind the curve on the playmaking front, and I think there’s been too much anchoring to the player he was then as opposed to the player he is now. Do I wish he was further along as a creator given his age? Absolutely. But the fact that he doesn’t have a single statistical red flag on this front, and he generally grades out in the middle of the pack relative to long-term NBA forwards with regard to playmaking metrics needs more recognition.

Defense

The other area where Kaluma has taken tremendous strides is on defense. For a long time, Kaluma was the frustrating, “guy who has the tools to be a good defender.” This year, he was legitimately a good defender! The biggest improvements came off the ball. He posted career highs in both steal rate (1.9%) and block rate (3.4%), and both numbers are in-line with what you’d want from an NBA prospect. His growth as a back-line defender is particularly intriguing. He does a great job patrolling the low man spot and protecting the rim. He routinely gets into help position in a timely manner while using length and strength to wall up and block shots. While making plays is only part of the defensive equation, the fact that he doesn’t let opponents get anything easy inside shouldn’t go overlooked.

Kaluma is a handful to deal with on the ball, too. Standing 6’7” with a 7’0.5” wingspan and a 222-pound frame, he’s physically up to the task of the NBA and can guard a variety of positions. Smaller players have an exceedingly difficult time getting to their spots against him. Still, he has prototypical wing-stopper size. Against similarly sized players, he moves his feet and uses his chest well to contain the ball and prevent opponents from getting inside. He brings a level of versatility to the table that’s tough to come by. Per Synergy, Kaluma guarded 25 isolation possessions this season, and he only surrendered 10 total points on those play types. When he was on an island, he limited opponents to 4-for-16 shooting while forcing six turnovers and only fouling three times. He’s not a guy you want to see in front of you.

Conclusion

I understand having a degree of hesitation about Arthur Kaluma. He’s an older prospect and he’s sort of a jack-of-all-trades. He’ll need to continue to develop as a shooter and on-ball decision maker in order to maximalize his value. But at a certain point on the board, I feel he becomes one of the better value propositions in the draft. He’s an NBA-ready athlete. His shooting profile is rock-solid. His growth as both a shooter and decision maker are a testament to his work ethic and demonstrate a track record of improvement. Defensively, he’s become an engaged, productive off-ball defender who can lock down a variety of players at the point of attack. When a dude is 6’7”, 222-pounds, and has a 7’0.5”, those things matter. Teams want guys who are built like that and do a lot of things well. If nothing else, he’s a guy you don’t have to worry about getting physically chewed up and spit out. Between his physical traits, athleticism, and well-rounded production, he should be able to survive. And if he can continue to turn the dial as a passer and shooter, he could be the type of forward who hangs around the league for a long time. Arthur Kaluma is on the cusp. And to me, he’s a much better bet to make on the margins than a lot of other prospects who tend to be ranked in his vicinity.