Atlanta Hawks 2024 Draft Lottery Preview
We wrap up our Lottery Preview series with the team that has the #1 Pick: The Atlanta Hawks!
Stephen: Ignacio, the Hawks have found their way to having the top pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Going into the lottery with the 10th-best odds and walking away with the #1 overall pick would almost always be a reason for celebration but, as we have heard at an exhausting frequency, this draft class hasn’t been viewed as the sexiest. Since they discovered they would be taking the first player off of the board, the Hawks have been meticulous in their evaluation of a select group of prospects. While I am mostly understanding that Atlanta had no idea they would be within this range, part of me is screaming on the inside that it feels as if they are just now evaluating some of the names that have been atop many boards for several months.
Where Atlanta is in terms of roster construction, and the quality of player that looks to be at the top of the draft sort of matches nicely. The Hawks do not need a #1 player in the way some of the other teams do–as Trae Young is still on the team. Dejounte Murray has fans around the league, and he is viewed as a very desirable player regardless of the fit with Trae. Jalen Johnson is an emerging talent within their organization, and there seem to be players up and down their rotation who will be rotational players on winning teams in the NBA for several years. Quin Snyder’s first season with the Hawks resulted in a 36-46 record, losing six games in a row.
The discussion on their roster has been a little tenuous, Ignacio. Trae is a bit polarizing, as he is an undeniable playmaker, but the on-again-off-again, oscillating seasons as a three-point shooter give reason for people to doubt his ability to shoulder the load as a #1 guy. Not to mention the defense is sort of what it is. He isn’t going to be a stopper, but can he be average on that end? If not, how do you best insulate him? There is also a large contingent of people that doubt Trae stays with the Hawks–that perhaps the addition of Murray was a signal flare that Trae could be expendable for the right price. There are ever-present, never-ending “Trae-for- KAT” conversations that almost have to be brought up once a month. There have been Trae to San Antonio murmurings. Trae to LA (Lakers) has been kicked around. Call me crazy, but Trae could just stay in Atlanta. However, will he and Dejounte both be Hawks next season? Is having two players who are ideally suited to play the same position the best use of 60+ million dollars?
Ignacio, what do you think about where the Hawks are as a team? How do they best utilize the # 1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft?
Ignacio: I think the Hawks are one of the most interesting teams picking at the top of the draft over the last decade. Unlike nearly every other team that has had the number one pick in recent years, they are not a franchise in disarray that’s going into draft night with the necessity of finding a franchise cornerstone—which is great for them considering, like you mentioned, that this class doesn’t offer an obvious franchise-changing player at the top of the draft.
The question, then, is this: How many years away from contention (i.e. getting back to Conference Finals) do the Hawks feel they are? Because the way they’ll approach the draft will change drastically if they think this is a multi-year rebuild around the pieces that they currently have, versus a quick overhaul, where they add a couple of win-now pieces and aim to make some noise in the playoffs next season.
If they accept that this will take longer than one year, and that the right move is to add a player who offers one of the highest ceilings in the class, they should look at Alex Sarr. He’s the number one player on our board with his combination of elite size (measured at 7’0” barefoot with a 7’4” wingspan at the NBA Draft combine), agility, speed, and coordination. Those skills allowed him to make an impact on defense at the NBL, protecting the rim at an elite level and being a capable pick-and-roll switch defender. He’s not only one of the best long-term prospects in this draft, but he also fills a role as a multi-positional defensive anchor from day one, which is especially important for a Hawks squad that finished bottom three in opponent points per game, opponent three-point percentage and opponent field goal percentage. They need help defensively and they need it now.
Sarr, however, is not just a one-way player; he can make stuff happen on the offensive end of the floor. He’s more fluid with the ball for someone his size, which allows him to attack the rim in transition or in limited situations in the halfcourt when he finds a straight line to the rim. Sarr also offers some potential as a floor-spacer, being a willing shooter from beyond the three-point line. All those aspects are in an early stage of development, but Sarr just turned 19 years old last April and is one of the youngest players in the draft; it wouldn’t shock me if those things come around to a point where they become at least respectable offensive weapons for him.
While his perimeter skillset makes him one of the highest-ceiling players in this draft, some of the more traditional aspects of the “big man” skillset are not at a level where he’ll be able to contribute from day one at the NBA. Simply put, Sarr is not an elite pick-and-roll finisher or defensive rebounder, and it will take some time for him to adjust at the NBA level.
If the Hawks feel like a backcourt of Trae and Dejounte, plus Jalen Johnson as a scoring option on the wing is a good enough core to make noise in the playoffs, they might not want to wait two or three years for Sarr to reach his ceiling and look for a rookie big man who is better at the “big man” stuff than Sarr currently is. The question is, is there such a player at the top of the draft?
Stephen: I think there is such a big man, but the question would be this: Is it too much of a reach to take Donovan Clingan with the first pick in this draft? There are several people who do not think so. This draft has recently been dubbed a “Flat Draft” by some, mainly because there isn’t a clear-cut option for the top pick. With all of the uncertainty, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Clingan could go to the Hawks with the first overall pick.
To your point about finding a player that is better at the “big man” stuff, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more capable pivot man. Without shoes, Clingan measured in at 7’1.75” and weighed in at 282 pounds. Donovan is an insane rebounder with a 7’6.75” wingspan. He’s gifted at protecting the rim, setting screens, and finishing around the rim. So, there aren’t many “big man” things that he cannot do. Clingan posted a defensive rebound percentage of 23.4 and an offensive rebounding percentage of 13.8. We know that rebounding typically translates up to the next level. He also recorded a block percentage of 11.4. Block percentages are also pretty scalable between competition levels.
Aside from the traditional skills that are required of big men, Donovan also has a keen court awareness and is capable of having the offense flow through him. He makes good reads, which allowed him to have an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.9. Even though he shot 2-of-8 from three and had a free throw percentage of 53.8%, there is a contingent of people who believe that Clingan could be consistent enough from deep. Knowing all of this, it’s feasible that Clingan could be the player that Atlanta has their eye on.
What if the Hawks don’t want to go the route of a big man? They did just extend Onyeka Okongwu and have Capela on their roster. We’ve already mentioned their guard depth. Is it crazy to think that Atlanta would want to add a wing or a forward, Ignacio?
Ignacio: It’s definitely not, and in fact, over the last few weeks the buzz both in the public sphere and behind closed doors has Atlanta taking Zaccharie Risacher with the top pick in the draft. While the French wing is not the top player on my board, I definitely get the play, especially if the Hawks consider that with Capela and Okongwu they are set up at the center position.
Risacher is not someone who’s going to create for himself or others at a great volume, but that’s hardly a concern on a team where you have Trae Young and Dejounte Murray. Risacher will help Atlanta with his elite floor-spacing (38.7% on three-pointers during the season on 238 attempts), his connective passing, his ability to attack the rim in transition and closeout opportunities, and, especially, with his versatile defense: Risacher is a toolsy and disciplined defender who can cover multiple positions and potentially develop into the type of perimeter stopper that the Hawks desperately need.
While Risacher might not be the player with the highest long-term upside in this draft, he just fits so well, not only with the Hawks but with pretty much every team in the league. There’s not a single roster that wouldn’t get better by adding a 6’9” wing who doesn’t need the ball in his hands to make an impact on both ends of the floor.
Is Risacher the type of player that would’ve gone number one in previous drafts? No, and it’s not that close either. This type of situation, where a team perceives that they might be reaching for the player that they want, generally leads to teams trading down. But doesn’t it feel like in this draft it’s easier said than done?
Stephen: No doubt, Ignacio; not many teams are discussing trading up–at least openly. Most teams want to trade back, or, in Houston’s case, there could be enough cause to trade out of the draft altogether for another player. Even teams that have multiple draft picks may feel that they are better off. Take San Antonio, for instance. They have the fourth and eighth pick in this draft. Wouldn’t they be better off, in your eyes, taking two picks in the Top 10 instead of getting one player? I think so. Does Portland want to trade the #7 and #14 picks for the #1? Is that too far of a tumble down the draft order? I think so.
There also aren’t a ton of teams that have come out saying that they are interested in trading up. Houston has been open to trading out of the third pick for a player. Do the Hawks look to trade in for the third pick in addition to the #1 pick overall? There is a ton of speculation that Trae or Dejounte will be moved. I could see Dejounte being a nice pick-up for Houston and their timeline. The Rockets could sweeten the deal with a number of player and/or picks, including the 44th pick in this year’s draft. Oklahoma City’s Sam Presti has been very vocal about the quality in this year’s draft. There are those who believe OKC could be coveting Donovan Clingan. Could Presti and company use their treasure chest of trade assets to move up and get Clingan? I think the Hawks should be very shrewd about moving out of the #1 pick, personally. Even if this class lacks the apparent and obviously star talent up top, I would prefer to get the player that I evaluate as the best in the class as opposed to missing out on them. I understand that getting the “wrong guy” can get GMs in trouble, but I think it could be worse for an NBA decision-maker to have the opportunity to get the best player in the class and decline that chance. To me, the deal better be too good to refuse to move out of the first pick.
Ignacio, how do you feel about trading out of this pick for Atlanta?
Ignacio: You broke down perfectly why finding a trade partner who wants to move up in the draft will prove to be tricky. In a draft without a surefire superstar at the top, everybody wants to trade down, and rarely does anyone want to trade up; the premium is to have multiple lottery picks, and there’s not that strong of a market for the top pick.
There’s also the possibility of packaging the number one pick with a player that the Hawks might consider redundant (Dejounte? One of Okongwu/Capela?) to get immediate help. This would be an interesting play if you’re trying to get a superstar, but this doesn’t look like an off-season where there will be that many superstars available for trade, or at least not superstars who are an obvious fit with Trae.
Overall, I feel like there are too many obstacles for the Hawks to move this pick without leaving significant value on the table. Targeting a player and making a play to get him while obtaining more assets is always worth considering, but I can’t imagine the Hawks won’t be seeing ghosts whenever they think of trading down from a top three pick.
Even if it seems like it was an eternity ago, the Hawks were an Eastern Conference Finals team just three seasons ago and they have enough pieces to aspire to a better record than the .500 mark they’ve been hovering around since 2021. There are multiple ways in which the Hawks could maximize the value they get from this pick. Whoever they select, that player will be one of the most interesting number one selections ever; this is one of the few drafts that will actually start at number one, and at this point, nothing feels set in stone.