Auto-Eligible Outliers in the 2026 NBA Draft
These 2026 NBA Draft prospects have proven themselves to be outliers in college. Will their specialty skills give them a chance to stick at the next level?
This is a tough part of the scouting cycle for me.
The freshmen don’t feel so fresh anymore. The other day, I looked at my schedule and thought, “I don’t have it in me to watch another BYU game.” The upperclassmen begin to feel stale. Alex Karaban has been in my life for so many years at this point. On top of the monotony of the daily grind, I worry about how the feeling of overexposure could be influencing my evaluations. Am I getting too caught up in the little things with Caleb Wilson instead of appreciating what he’s great at? Am I being too hard on Mikel Brown?
When I find myself in this rut, which happens almost every year, I turn to two places. The first is the NBA, as I remain steadfast in my belief that it’s important to “keep the bar high” when scouting. By taking a little bit of a break from the top college prospects, I can reassess them later with a fresh lens after devoting a greater portion of my time to the league I am eventually projecting these guys to play in. I always keep a steady diet of NBA games, but it’s extra fun around this time of year. The trade deadline creates new opportunities for some players who weren’t getting them before, and it’s also fun to see how prominent players who were moved fare in their new cities. The second place should come as no surprise to my fellow Draft Sickos…THE MARGINS.
When I get tired of looking at the same players over and over again, watching someone I’ve seen little or none of is a refreshing sensation. Still, I don’t have heaps and heaps of free time. I need to be selective. So, I set up some criteria.
-With the NIL landscape being what it is, I anticipate fewer underclassmen declaring once again. As a result, I wanted to focus on players who are auto-eligible for the 2026 NBA Draft.
-I also wanted the players to be, well, good. So, I set a baseline minimum BPM of 5.0, as very few older prospects find success when they don’t hit that mark in their pre-draft season.
-Lastly, I needed a hook. I didn’t want to watch a bunch of guys who are just…worse versions of replacement level dudes. I wanted guys who are special at something. So, I focused on players who are having at least a Top 5 season in an advanced statistical category among seniors with BPM above 5.0.
With that being said, it’s time that I present to you…the Auto-Eligible Outliers of the 2026 NBA Draft.
Kashie Natt, 6’3”, 190 Pounds, Sam Houston State
Special Stat: 4.7 STL%
Kashie Natt is a pest on defense. He’s the basketball equivalent of an itch you just can’t scratch; his presence is constantly looming and annoying you. At 190 pounds, he has a solid frame for a guard, which makes him tough to get through at the point of attack. His hands are absolutely absurd. He does an incredible job of poking into the handles of his opponents at the point-of-attack, even when they aren’t being particularly sloppy with their dribble. Off-ball, his motor, speed, and instincts are sublime. He’s quick to recognize rotations, and he covers ground so quickly that he’s often able to get to passes in situations where opponents don’t even fathom that he could possibly make a play on the ball. If the rock isn’t thrown with intent and anticipation, Natt is going to pick it off. Because he thinks the game so quickly, he also nabs a bunch of takeaways in gray areas, like when the opposing team gets a little careless before bringing the ball up the floor or when a big man doesn’t anticipate a swipe after grabbing a defensive rebound. Natt is one of the best contributors to the possession battle you can find in the college basketball world.
Is there anything else here?
Oh yeah. Natt is also an outrageous shot blocker for a guard, tallying a 2.9 BLK% on the year. His help instincts around the basket are top-notch, and he absolutely soars before emphatically rejecting opponents. Natt also rebounds more like a power forward than a guard. The offense is a bit of a mixed bag. The good news is that his speed and bounce enable him to finish above the rim, with his 10 dunks so far this season being a good mark for a guard. Natt gets to the rim often and draws a ton of fouls (.543 FTr). He’s also hit 41.8% of his threes on the year. Still, I have some skepticism. Natt’s offensive process leaves something to be desired. He only has a 15.2 AST%, which is dicey for a mid-major upperclassman guard. He misses reads downhill only to force tough rim attempts (49% at the rim). Natt can also force passes through impossibly tight windows, leading to turnovers.
Conclusion
I absolutely love Kashie Natt’s brand of basketball. He’s truly a top-tier defensive prospect. The question, to me at least, is whether or not he has enough juice on offense. He’s behind the curve as a processor on that side of the ball. While I love his percentage from deep and foul drawing, he’s a low-volume three-point shooter, and his touch around the basket is shaky. If he doesn’t work out, the reasons why will feel obvious in hindsight, as Natt is an iffy offensive player as an upperclassman in a mid-major league. But I can’t stop thinking about the overlap between someone like Natt and Craig Porter Jr. Porter was a far more polished offensive orchestrator at the same point in his journey, but punched way above their weight on defense and on the glass while being able to hit enough threes to remain viable off-ball players. Of all the players I studied for this exercise, Natt is the one who’s surged the highest up my board. I definitely think he’s worth the two-way contract swing given the value this type of guard has in the modern NBA.
Ugonna Onyenso, 7’0”, 245 Pounds, Virginia
Special Stat: 15.9 BLK%
Ugonna Onyenso has the best block rate in the senior class. He’s long been a “block everything” type of dude, as his career block rate sits at 14.2%. The athletic traits you’d expect from this type of player are here. He has long arms, he’s quick, and he gets off the floor really well. But as I’ve dug into Onyenso’s tape this season, the biggest thing that’s impressed me has been his discipline. He’s shown far more polish with the angles he’s taken in drop coverage instead of turboing around before leaping for rejections. Onyenso also does an awesome job of staying grounded against pump fakes. I was surprised how often players tried to bait him off his feet, only for him to stay on the floor before rejecting them moments later. His hand-eye coordination and hand speed are top-notch, too. He tracks the ball down in a hurry and does it without compromising his verticality or recklessly swiping down onto a player’s body. Because of this poised approach, Onyenso rarely fouls, averaging only 4.1 fouls per 100 possessions. For context, here’s how he stacks up against other notable rim protectors during their pre-draft seasons:
Walker Kessler: 19.1 BLK%, 5.7 FP100
Jaren Jackson Jr.: 14.3 BLK%, 8.6 FP100
Mo Bamba: 13.1 BLK%, 5.0 FP100
Dereck Lively II: 12.7 BLK%, 8.0 FP100
Isaiah Jackson: 12.7 BLK%, 8.3 FP100
I’m not the biggest “foul aversion is the most important thing” guy in the world. Generally, it’s to be expected that if a guy creates a lot of events on defense, he’s going to foul sometimes. If you make an omelet, you’re going to break a few eggs. But Onyenso is the rare big man who can tally a ton of rejections while presenting little in the way of foul-trouble tradeoff. This ability to patrol the paint, block everything, and avoid sending opponents into the line is far from normal.
Is there anything else here?
Onyenso is also a great play finisher, which shouldn’t come as a surprise given his physical gifts. He’s made 71.1% of his halfcourt rim attempts on the year, per Synergy. He can get up for lobs on the roll or clean up from the dunker spot.
There have been two new, enticing wrinkles to Onyeno’s game this season. The first is that he’s been a very “low mistake” player. While his 5.3 AST% is rather anemic and genuinely concerning in an era where big men are being asked to do more with the ball than ever before, he’s still managed to keep his assist-to-turnover mark positive on the year because he doesn’t bite off more than he can chew. If it’s not easy and simple, he’s not going to mess around with it. He’s also started to shoot it a little bit. His 70.3% mark at the charity stripe is solid, and now, Onyenso will let the long ball fly when given time and room. He’s yet to find consistency from deep, but he’s hit six pick-and-pop threes this year, and they don’t look too bad!
Conclusion
I think Ugonna Onyenso deserves more attention. I get the reservations. He’s a senior. He’s on his third school. He comes off the bench and only plays 18.1 MPG. Onyenso is also a limited playmaker and a poor rebounder, the latter of which is frustrating given his tools. But at the end of the day, I know he’s great at something, and I also believe that his physical traits are good enough that he can continue to be great at it in the pros. Plus, he’s really figured out how to thrive in a low-maintenance capacity on offense. I also like that he’s starting to shoot a little bit, as it gives him another dimension to his offensive game. Onyenso’s lack of ball skills and suboptimal performance on the glass, at his age, mean he’s unlikely to develop into a high-value player at the next level. That said, “break glass in case of emergency big men” are found on rosters throughout the league. If I’m going to have to throw one in, give me the elite rim protector and elite play finisher who knows what he is. I think there’s a world where he plays multiple years in the NBA.
Anthony Roy, 6’5”, 205 Pounds, Oklahoma State
Special Stat: 42.3% from three on 14.7 attempts per 100 possessions
NBA teams love guys who can hit threes on high volume. Anthony Roy is one of those guys. He’s a nuclear-level threat from deep. What immediately stands out about Roy relative to most marksmen is that he’s actually got some juice to him on the ball. He’s got slick footwork and a mesmerizing dribble game that he can use to generate space for himself on the perimeter. Once he has that space, oh boy. Roy has made 43.8% of his threes as a pick-and-roll ball-handler and 45.5% of his threes in isolation this season, per Synergy. He also brings heaps of gravity off-ball, as he’s hit 46.7% of his catch-and-shoot threes on the year per Synergy. Roy can move into his shot or spot up from deep behind the NBA line. What’s more, this isn’t anything new for Roy. Throughout his four D-I seasons, he’s a career 42.4% shooter from distance on 14.8 attempts per 100 possessions, mirroring the results he’s produced this season for the Cowboys. Roy isn’t just having an outlier shooting season—he’s a proven sniper who also has the ability to create his own shots.
Is there anything else here?
While the real sell here is Roy’s shooting, he has some athleticism that helps him in other areas. His footwork and speed aid him in breaking down and dusting defenders. He gets to the rim far more often than most premier shooters, with 31.8% of his halfcourt shots coming at the basket, per Synergy. He’s also not averse to contact, tallying a .360 Free Throw Rate on the year. Still, he’s been a subpar finisher this year. Roy also doesn’t see the floor particularly well, with a 7.8 AST% that’s underwhelming for a wing with a 25.1 USG% and a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. His effort on defense is passive, both on and off the ball.
Conclusion
My main concern with Anthony Roy on the basketball court is that his game doesn’t have a lot of insulation. When the shot isn’t going in, he currently doesn’t provide much value. Then, there’s the fact that his college career has been a bit of a journey. Roy will turn 25 during his rookie season, and he’s made stops at six different schools. There have been some off-court issues along the way, which teams may find concerning. But, at the end of the day, a three-point shot is worth three points, and there aren’t many people on earth who can take or make as many of them as Anthony Roy. I think a two-way contract is reasonable if a team thinks they can get him to adapt his play style a little bit.
Zach Cleveland, 6’7”, 220 Pounds, Liberty
Special Stat: 36.4 AST%
Liberty’s Zach Cleveland is an outstanding playmaking hub. The Flames love to put him in the mid-range, be it the elbow, nail, or baseline, and let him make reads while the offense flows around him. From there, he does a great job of finding openings as they arise and immediately hitting his teammates for high percentage looks. But what really stands out on tape is Cleveland’s level of execution. There’s not a pass in the book he can’t throw, and he tends to throw them perfectly. Whether he’s making a whip from the low block to a shooter in the weakside corner or perfectly leading a cutter to the rim with a needle-threading bounce pass, it feels like he’s always throwing the ball through the perfect window with pinpoint precision. His 7.1 APG to only 2.9 TOV demonstrates that he’s not just capable of racking up assists, but that he can do it while limiting his mistakes.
Is there anything else here?
Cleveland brings a lot to the table on defense. He’s not the quickest or bounciest, but he’s long, strong, fluid, and physical. His point-of-attack footwork is rock solid, enabling him to slide and contain the ball effectively. He’s also a good stock producer (2.5 STL%, 4.8 BLK%). Cleveland’s feel and timing help know when it makes sense to dig in on the ball or jump into a passing lane. He also collects blocks through his rotational awareness and ability to swallow up opponents. He’s a great defensive rebounder (25.0 DRB%), which dovetails nicely with his playmaking skill in transition and early offense. I do worry about his offensive translation. Cleveland is an okay athlete by NBA standards, but not an exceptional one. Most of his buckets come on the block, so he’ll need to make serious adjustments to his play style. He’s also a career 11.1% three-point shooter on low volume, and he’s only made 47.7% of his free throws this year, so he’s unlikely to space the floor.
Conclusion
Zach Cleveland is a really cool player. That said, I am dubious that he can parlay his college success to the NBA level. Because he’s not a high-wire athlete or a floor spacer, it’s hard to imagine where his scoring gravity will come from to set up his playmaking at the next level. It’s also unlikely that a team will be eager to have the offense gravitate around him like it does at Liberty, especially early in his pro tenure. He’s going to need to adjust how he plays the game on offense. Still, he’s a 6’7” dude with a ridiculous level of feel who produces on the defensive end. I think he’s a worthwhile E-10 flier, and a team can see if there’s anything they can do to get his jump shot workable. It’s unlikely, but most E-10 players are unlikely to pan out to a serious degree. You have to bet on something with those contracts, and you could do a whole lot worse than an outlier processor with a pro frame.
Tobe Awaka, 6’8”, 250 Pounds, Arizona
Special Stat: 21.6 ORB%
Certain NBA teams have started to put more weight back into offensive rebounding, as it’s a way to generate extra possessions and high-efficiency looks. Because of that, I wanted to examine this class’s top offensive rebounder. Arizona’s Tobe Awaka owns the glass, and he’s not interested in subletting the space. The physical traits are there, as he’s both strong and springy. The mental side is there, too. Awaka plays hard, always sprinting down the floor to clean up any potential misses in transition. His attention to detail is great. He’s always trying to find ways to establish inside position when defenders aren’t yet engaged in the rebounding process. His timing is exquisite as well. It feels like he always jumps at precisely the right time to high point the ball. Basically, Awaka has a myriad of ways to win on the glass. He can out-athlete, out-work, and out-think opponents on the boards.
Is there anything else here?
Awaka brings some value on the defensive end. His strength can create problems for smaller players when he guards on an island. His straight-line speed is impressive, and it’s genuinely terrifying when he comes flying at shooters on hard closeouts. He’s been able to block a good number of threes because of that burst and bounce (3.4 BLK%). His tools make him tough to score against around the basket, too. He’s also elite at ending possessions thanks to his 26.8 DRB%. Still, his size has some drawbacks, as he doesn’t shift directions very easily, and he can be heavy-footed. Offensively, he’s pretty limited. He’s best using his power to get buckets inside. Still, he’s not a super-efficient finisher, and he’s short by NBA big standards. He doesn’t have much in the way of ball skills, and he’s a subpar free-throw shooter who rarely takes threes, further diminishing his utility.
Conclusion
Tobe Awaka has been an awesome college player. Unfortunately, his NBA case is tough to make. The “energy power forward” has started to fade from existence, though the league’s emphasis on pace and rebounding could potentially change that. Simply put, it’s hard to play guys who aren’t center-sized and don’t have wing skills, and that’s where Awaka falls. I do feel like he’s a good bet to wreak havoc in the G League, where teams can get away with playing smaller big men. In my opinion, his best path is to continue to round out his offensive skill set there and hope to pop down the line. He’s an Exhibit-10/Summer League type of guy for me.
Unfortunately, there will be no Quick Hits this week, as I was primarily focused on the NBA and the players above, who I hadn’t seen much of before, and that took up most of my tape time. But…
This column still isn’t over! No Ceilings+ subscribers get an additional bonus section every week! This week, I wrote about Cameron Carr! There is no better way to support the work that we do at No Ceilings than by subscribing to NC+. I believe our track record of consistent, thoughtful work over the past four years speaks for itself. It’s only $8/month or $80/year, so please consider supporting the work that we do. You’ll get our pre-season draft guide, access to our Discord, this extra section of my column each week, bonus columns from our entire team, live scouting reports, and MUCH MORE!
