Big Board V.1 Round Table Reactions | The Lotto
The team is back again to take a look at the composite rankings for the 2022 NBA Draft Big Board. Today, we take a look at players that found their way into the lottery.
Welcome back Draft Maniacs to another heated discussion.
If this is your first time here, welcome and we love you. On Tuesday, the No Ceilings crew officially released the first 2022 NBA Draft Big Board. Each member of our squad was told to make their very own “Top 30.” After that, our team of data scientists (kidding) put together a Composite board to make one glorious Big Board. Yesterday, our round table discussion focused on players slotted from 30-15. Today…we dive into the good stuff. Today is all about…
Below features each one of our team members giving their thoughts about players that ended up finding their names in the lottery. It was a heated process and one that already has a number of members on our team foaming at the mouth to update their boards already (psychos).
Let’s take a look at what our team has to say.
1. Who Are You Higher On Compared to the 2022 Composite Big Board? (1-14)
Alex (Draft Film School): There were a handful of lottery guys that I had two spots higher on my board vs composite: Caleb Houstan, Kendall Brown, Jean Montero, and Kennedy Chandler. Not sure there is a specific part of each of their games that I am higher on but just guys who I overall am fascinated by when I watch them play.
Nathan Grubel: I had Nikola Jovic 10th on the first edition of my board and despite not-so-great returns so far overseas, I still believe in what’s already on tape. A 6’10” playmaking forward who can shoot and brings the NASTY on both ends, I’ll hold onto my stock until he’s out of games to bounce back.
Albert Ghim: Jaden Hardy is a guy that I still think could fight his way back into the top 3 discussion. He’s had a really rough start to his time with the G-League Ignite but he’s got some wild skills that few guys have. I’m still a big time believer.
Tyler Rucker: My board was pretty much perfect, so I don’t really know what to say. Okay, I’m kidding. Hmmm…Let me go to war for my guy real quick. I had Jaden Hardy 4th overall and he ended up 6th on the composite. I understand the public “hesitation” about Hardy’s start to the year in the G-League…but this should have been expected. Hardy was facing a massive jump in competition and that G-League Ignite roster isn’t constructed as “ideal” as last year. I’m still a big believer and he’s already starting to show some notable improvements in important areas. I’ve bought a home and already started renovations on Hardy street. I’m not going anywhere.
Corey Tulaba: The top 14 on the composite board doesn’t stray too far from the path on many of the guys, but I have Kennedy Chandler four spots higher than the consensus ranking. I get that he’s a smallish guard but the feel for the game and pace that Chandler can dictate is a notch above the other point guards in the class. There is going to be a team that feels they need a point guard on draft night and with no clear cut leader at that spot it could lead to Chandler building hype as a top 10 guy.
Evan Wheeler: I guess solely based on the fact that we’ve got him ranked third overall on our composite big board, and I’ve got him number one overall on my personal board, I have to choose Jabari Smith Jr. I’m fully in on the Auburn freshman sensation and have not been more impressed by any other prospect in the early evaluation period than him.
Tyler Metcalf: There wasn’t a whole lot of disparity between my lottery and the consolidated rankings but it looks like I’m higher on Bryce McGowens than most. I think McGowens has some pretty special offensive potential and once he fills out more could be a lethal scorer. The big test for him will be how he fares against more physical Big Ten play, but I’m excited to find out if he can hold his own.
Nick Agar-Johnson: He’s had a rough go of it so far this year for Mega Bemax, but I’m still all in on Nikola Jovic. I think that his passing chops at his size are seriously special, and I think that his shooting touch is much better than his current numbers would suggest. This might be a case of me sticking a bit too close to my prior evaluation, but I have yet to be convinced that the next member of the Nik revolution is not a lottery pick.
2. Who Are You LOWER On Compared to the 2022 Composite Big Board?
Alex (Draft Film School): Jaden Hardy was a divisive prospect coming into the season and he remains that a handful of games into the season. I have him 11th while composite has him 6th. While he has gotten better since the first few games with Ignite, I still have concerns about his athleticism and him just being an inefficient scorer at the next level.
Nathan Grubel: A lot of our staff has kept AJ Griffin in the lottery conversation but I have him outside my top 20. He’s one of the most talented wings in this draft class when he’s healthy, but he’s had plenty of concerns medically and there seems to be a reason why he’s frequently playing limited minutes for Duke. Rumblings of poor understanding and basketball IQ have me concerned about his status in the 2022 class; he could be someone who benefits from coming back to school another year.
Albert Ghim: Jalen Duren is the guy for me. I understand that the physical tools are insane and I also know that he’s playing on a rough Memphis team. I still have concerns about his role on offense in the NBA.
Tyler Rucker: You know…I’m probably going to catch a lot of s**t for this…but I’m started to get a little “uncomfortable” about Jalen Duren. Look, I get it. The flashes are just flat out awesome. He’s built like the hulk and he has some terrifying explosiveness. But I am just starting to wonder if the rest of the tools solidify a potential Top-6 pick. I’ll be anxious to watch him throughout the year, but I had him 9th on my personal board and I’m still iffy about him being that “high.”
Corey Tulaba: The biggest disparity by the numbers would be Keegan Murray. Murray came in at 13 on the composite board whereas I had him at 17. I’m content with Murray at 13 though, my eval is more of a cautious wait and see approach as he enters conference play.
Evan Wheeler: I honestly think the crew here did an overall really good job of slotting these guys ranked 1-14, so it’s tough for me to say who exactly I’m lower on. I wonder if Keegan Murray can sustain his current level of just insane production and stay in the lottery discussion. He’s also just someone I need to watch more. The entire OTE experience is a little confusing to me and as much as I love Jean Montero, it sort of concerns me what real value you can give to the number he’s producing because of the competition he’s regularly facing.
Tyler Metcalf: To say I’m struggling to figure out what to do with the Overtime Elite games would be putting it lightly. I’m by far the most skeptical of Jean Montero among the group because these games don’t look like real basketball. I promise this isn’t some “get off my lawn” segment, but these OTE games are the actualization of highlight culture. Montero is incredibly skilled and I’m more than open to significantly changing my ranking of him. For now, though, I’m staying skeptical but optimistic.
Nick Agar-Johnson: I’m even lower on Jaden Hardy than Alex–I convinced myself to keep in the lottery, but only barely. He’s done little to allay my concerns about him being an inefficient volume shooter. While his passing has been decent and better than I expected, his propensity to toss up questionable shots has been about as bad as I’d feared. I doubt that I’ll be as low on him as I am right now all season long (especially since his shooting numbers are all but guaranteed to go up), but I was worried about him coming into the season and I’m even more worried now.
3. What is the biggest surprise in your opinion with the Composite Board?
Alex (Draft Film School): I was a little surprised that Keegan Murray was this high on the composite board. Look, I get it, the numbers he is putting up so far are absurd. But he also hasn’t played anyone outside of Virginia at the time of the Board release (and he wasn’t incredible in that Virginia game). I still like Murray in the 15-20 range but I am just pumping the brakes a bit until I see more of him in Big Ten play as the main guy for Iowa.
Nathan Grubel: Kendall Brown seems to be a consensus top 10 guy for No Ceilings, and while I had him in one of the highest spots on the team, it seems like a stronger stance to take than I initially expected. He’s been one of the most efficient freshmen in the country, possessing great versatility as a jumbo playmaker with blossoming outside touch. Will he maintain this level of play over the course of the season?
Albert Ghim: Benedict Mathurin at 13 is the only one that really sticks out to me. I think Mathurin is going to be a very good player, I don’t know if he’ll ever be a great player. I’d rather have a Strawther, Christie, or Jaquez Jr. in the 20’s than take Mathurin in the lottery.
Tyler Rucker: I thought I was going to be an outcast with my love for Kendall Brown (had him 7th) and it shocked me that so many members of the No Ceilings team felt similar. I’m also pleasantly surprised that the squad still believes in AJ Griffin. There’s too much talent there and I still believe he’s loading like it’s the start up screen for NBA 2K17. Unleash the monster already.
Corey Tulaba: I don’t passionately disagree with the ranking (though I had him lower on my board) but I was surprised that Brown came in at 8. Brown has been super impressive with godly percentages, but I still need to see him show a deeper bag before I can definitively rank him that high. I get why the squad is super high on him (Rucker did an excellent job detailing it with his Prospect video) but going from 29 on the $DRFT IPO to 8 so quickly is quite the rise for the beast from Baylor.
Evan Wheeler: I’m going to mirror Albert’s thoughts here and also go with Benedict Mathurin. He’s currently playing sensational right now and I want to buy in on him, but I also don’t know if he’s a great player just yet or has that sort of potential so to say at the NBA level.
Tyler Metcalf: I’m not sure why, because I’m still very high on him and as a collective we’re not very reactionary, but Caleb Houstan still being ranked that high by all of us surprised me. Houstan has had a shaky start, but his tools, basketball IQ, and shooting history are far too impressive for his production to remain this low all season. It was a pleasant surprise, but a surprise nonetheless.
Nick Agar-Johnson: I’m a bit surprised that Kennedy Chandler ended up at #14, especially given that neither TyTy Washington or JD Davison made it into the lottery. To be clear, I had Chandler at #18 and I think that he has a very good chance to be a lottery pick; I guess I’m just surprised that he was the only one of the three SEC point guards to end up in our projected lottery.
4. Who missed out and has the chance to play their way into the Lottery?
Alex (Draft Film School): I mentioned Ousmane Dieng having potential to drop out of the Top 30…and I also think he has the potential to jump up into the lottery next time around. This is what you get with teenagers playing in the NBL. They could fall like RJ Hampton, or rise like LaMelo Ball. If Dieng can show primary ball-handler/creator ability in the NBL that will shoot him up draft boards. Pair that with some better shooting and he’ll be closer to a Top 10 guy given his size and age.
Nathan Grubel: I could go a few directions with an answer here given Bennedict Mathurin and TyTy Washington are firmly on my radar moving forward, but I’m also going to say Jonny Davis. I featured him in this week’s Morning Dunk after going back and watching his games against Houston and most recently against Marquette. His mature approach to scoring the basketball and overall efficiency as a 6’5” guard have me wanting more from a sophomore who’s already averaging over 20 PPG.
Albert Ghim: Ty Ty Washington is one of my favorite players in this class. I think he’s going to see more of the ball as the season progresses and teams are going to fall in love with his wide array of skills. I could also see Max Christie having a strong season and finding himself in the Lottery discussion.
Tyler Rucker: I just wrote a chaotic piece about him yesterday for No Ceilings, so I’m going to put everyone on notice now. GET ON THE TREVOR KEELS TRAIN. Personally I had Keels at 14th on my board and I already feel as if I should have had him higher. A 6’5”, 221 pound freshman who plays like a demonic presence, Keels is going to have plenty of fans in Front Offices, especially if he puts together a nice stretch of shooting performances.
Corey Tulaba: JD Davison came in at 21 on our board and I think his superhuman athleticism could be enough to get him a lottery grade. Davison showed out against the Zags in front of a ton of executives and if he builds off that momentum it’ll be hard to keep him out of the top 14.
Evan Wheeler: I sort of feel I piled on him a little when we talked about the prospects currently ranked outside the lottery in our first roundtable, but I think Peyton Watson can eventually get back into the lottery conversation. He’s another guy that I want to believe in the upside and potential, I just need to see the flashes of it at some sort of consistent rate going forward.
Tyler Metcalf: It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Johnny Davis had a lottery grade come tournament time. I was tempted to put him almost that high for this version, but I just want to see this high level of play continue a little longer. His start couldn’t have been any better, and I’ve been in on him since last year, but he still needs to prove this hot start isn’t an anomaly.
Nick Agar-Johnson: I said that Ochai Agbaji could play his way into the lottery in the 15-30 section of this roundtable, so I’ll go with TyTy Washington here. I’m higher on TyTy than any point guard not named Jaden Ivey in this class–TyTy is #10 on my personal board–and I think/hope that he will get more and more opportunities with the ball in his hands as the season progresses.
5. Who could potentially fall out of the Lottery?
Alex (Draft Film School): I can see Kennedy Chandler dropping a few spots just given concerns with his size. We saw those struggles against Villanova and UNC earlier in the year so if those pop up again during SEC play, I can see people growing wary of keeping him in the lottery.
Nathan Grubel: Are we SURE Keegan Murray is this good? His numbers made me fall out of my chair when I did some research before I mentioned him in my column, but he’s feasted on lower level competition and hasn’t quite lived up to those same expectations in tougher games against Illinois and Virginia. He’s strongly in the first-round conversation, but it wouldn’t shock me if he fell out of the lottery along with the consensus answer of Chandler here.
Albert Ghim: Kennedy Chandler might dip like Sharife Cooper dipped last season. I’m not saying it’s going to happen but there’s a possibility it does. I think the lack of size is going to hurt his stock big time as teams get more of his tape.
Tyler Rucker: I need to get this off my chest, everybody in here saying Bennedict Mathurin…I’m keeping receipts. The clear answer here is AJ Griffin. The Duke freshman came into the year with some serious hype and evaluators were foaming at the mouth to see him on the court. After a preseason knee injury, Griffin has struggled to get consistent minutes with the Blue Devils this year. He’s going to need to flip a switch at some point or else he’s going to keep trending down Draft boards.
Corey Tulaba: I’m personally a believer but it may be AJ Griffin. Griffin’s stock has absolutely tanked on most outlets and while we’ve taken the tentative approach with the talented wing at No Ceilings, there’s no guarantee that Griffin sees a huge minutes and usage increase given the depth of the Duke roster. Griffin may ultimately wow in workouts, and restore some of the hype closer to the draft, but I’m sure my teammates will need to see more out of him in conference play if he’s to keep his spot in the top 14.
Evan Wheeler: For me it’s probably either AJ Griffin or Bennedict Mathurin, the latter for the reasons I mentioned above, but with Griffin I do think the injury concerns will scare some NBA teams and as Corey pointed out, the lack of consistent minutes could hurt his stock as well.
Tyler Metcalf: I love Kennedy Chandler, but it’s probably him. He’s a smaller point guard and if he struggles with the size and athleticism of SEC defenders, a lot of people will be turned off. The talent is there, but the question is whether he can adapt to and thrive against opponents closer to NBA talent.
Nick Agar-Johnson: I’ve already talked about being surprised about Kennedy Chandler cracking the lottery, so I’ll go a different route here. Much though I am a Keegan Murray believer (and I am definitely a Keegan Murray believer), I think that the ridiculous highs of his early season stats will take a bit of a step back in conference play and will result in him being closer to the 15-20 range on draft night.