Breakout Candidate: Paul McNeil | 2026 NBA Draft

The 2026 NBA Draft is bound to have a ton of breakout prospects among the returning collegiate players. One of the leading candidates is North Carolina State's sophomore shooting guard Paul McNeil.

Every draft cycle, a handful of players break free from the shadows and force their way into the spotlight. The fascination is typically with the one-and-done prospects, but we’re seeing the stigma associated with returning to school rapidly deteriorate as more prospects return to school to refine their games. While the top names often dominate early conversations, it’s the breakout candidates that can redefine the class. The 2026 NBA Draft could have a steep drop-off at the top with freshmen. Thankfully, there’s an abundance of returning players who are primed for a breakout. One of the top breakout candidates for the 2026 NBA Draft is North Carolina State sophomore Paul McNeil.

The 6’5”, 180-pound sophomore shooting guard had a terrific end to his freshman season. On the surface, McNeil’s numbers are underwhelming as he averaged just 4.2 points, 1.3 rebounds, 0.8 assists, and 8.6 minutes per game last year. However, over his last eight games, McNeil scored in double digits in four of the six games where he played at least 10 minutes. There are plenty of improvements that McNeil will have needed to make over the summer, but he could be in store for a big year in Will Wade’s offense.

Last season, when McNeil did play, he was primarily used as a spot-up shooter (40.2% of his possessions per Synergy). He wasn’t overwhelming, but he did rank in the 54th percentile in points per possession (PPP) and shot 36.7% from three in these situations. While McNeil wasn’t a lights-out shooter, he was competent. What stood out the most, though, was how adept he was at finding open spaces on the perimeter. It may seem simple, but the way that McNeil relocated, drifted to improve passing lanes, and found open pockets was second nature. It was the instincts of a seasoned off-ball scorer.

Moving like that on the perimeter makes life tremendously easier for ball-handlers, but also for McNeil. It’s a big reason that he attempted a gaudy 13.1 threes per 100 possessions because he was constantly finding ways to get open in his limited minutes. On top of that, McNeil wasn’t shy about launching with a hand in his face or while in motion. Even though McNeil’s raw percentages aren’t overwhelming, the volume and variety are highly encouraging.

McNeil isn’t just a spot-up shooter, though, as he’s a really versatile off-ball scorer and creator. His off-ball movement creates better looks when spotting up, but it also puts him in tremendous situations to act as a second-side creator. McNeil can run off screens, attack close outs, offensive rebound, and run second side pick-and-rolls. McNeil isn’t a primary creator, but there are tremendously encouraging signs of him growing into a legitimate second-side creator.

Obviously, given McNeil’s paltry minute share of just 16.7% last season, his numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt. In the opportunities that he did have, though, his numbers closely mirrored those of Kon Knueppel as they were the only freshmen from true high major conferences with usage rates of at least 20, true shooting percentage of at least 58, at least 10 three-point attempts per 100 possessions, and an assist rate of at least 15. The difference, though, is that Knuppel had a minute share of 76.2%. Additionally, if we lower the true shooting percentage threshold to 55, the list adds Tre Johnson and Tahaad Pettiford. Those are some fantastic names for McNeil to be included with.

While McNeil’s numbers may be a bit misleading given the sample size, his tape backs up a lot of it. McNeil’s off-ball movement, combined with his shooting gravity, regularly draws long closeouts. If defenders turn off for a second or get caught ball-watching, McNeil is likely going to make them pay. McNeil does a great job of attacking his defender’s high foot, which forces them to flip their hips and go into recovery mode. From here, McNeil showed some fun rim pressure with his physicality and change of pace dribbling, some flashy step back pull-up jumpers, and some nice playmaking reads. McNeil only took 22 pull-up jumpers last year, but he ranked in the 98^th percentile and shot 46.2% from three and 55.6% from two. Those numbers are bound to fall, but as we can see below, McNeil can generate a lot of really clean looks from off-ball scoring situations.

While there’s a lot of fun intrigue with McNeil’s scoring versatility and off-ball creation, there are also limitations. The most glaring is some of McNeil’s physical limitations. McNeil still has a slender frame, so even though there are some fun examples of him putting defenders in jail and finishing through contact, he’ll still need to get a lot stronger for those to truly become effective tools for him in the long run. Additionally, McNeil isn’t the most explosive athlete. His lack of a great first step, along with his role, was a big reason he only had three shots at the rim in the halfcourt last year.

The other concern is just the lack of polish McNeil showed last year. The flashes were fun, but there were also stretches where he rushed things and lacked composure in traffic. The foundation of his handle is encouraging, but it can get loose at times. When help defenders stepped to him, his decision-making would get rushed. A lot of this can be improved with time, strength development, and reps, though.

This is the area of McNeil’s game that I’m most excited to see next season. NBA-level shooting guards have to be able to do more than just knock down threes and be a play finisher. If McNeil can demonstrate more composure in traffic, settle for fewer bad floaters, get to the rim more frequently, and showcase improved playmaking reads, he could quickly ascend as one of the most intriguing shooting guards in the class.

What gives McNeil’s case as a breakout candidate even more credence is what he does on the defensive end. He isn’t perfect, but it’s tough not to love, or at least be excited about, McNeil’s defensive tape as a freshman. He showed a really high compete level, tremendous awareness, and positional versatility. What popped the most with McNeil’s defense is how attentive he was away from the ball. McNeil constantly made the proper rotation, closed out under control, communicated switches, tagged and recovered, and played great ball denial. His defensive playmaking numbers are mediocre, but McNeil’s off-ball defensive value arises from him being a step ahead and taking away opportunities before they arise.

McNeil also has some awesome on-ball defensive capabilities, but it’s also where the biggest causes for concern arise. McNeil can get really sloppy with his fundamentals as he’s too eager to rise out of his stance and cross his feet to chase and recover. The work rate and want to are all there, but too often does he abandon the little things, which exposes him to adept on-ball creators and good screeners. If McNeil can buy in and consistently execute the little things with his fundamentals, he has all the tools to be an outstanding defender.

North Carolina State made a ton of changes to their roster and coaching staff for this year, but the return of Paul McNeil should be huge for them, too. Despite having incredibly limited opportunities as a freshman, McNeil consistently produced encouraging numbers and film. With his combination of ball skills, scoring versatility, and defense, McNeil could emerge as one of the more exciting shooting guard prospects for the 2026 NBA Draft.