Buying the Dip with Nolan Traore
In the preseason, Nolan Traore was a top prospect. What happened to his 2025 NBA Draft stock and why is Rowan Kent, after rewatching his film, convinced that he's still a first round draft prospect?
While the word “stock” may be especially charged given the state of the world, from an NBA scouting perspective, it’s all the rage. Now that most of the games have finished, the time for prospects and their draft stocks to rise and fall is nigh. Workouts, tournaments, combines, interviews, and even social media conversations could have a tangible impact on where they end up.
The idea of “draft stock” has become ubiquitous in scouting communities for any sport. Heck, No Ceilings’s own Corey Tulaba has explored this concept wonderfully as a fun exercise in understanding the volatility of player perception and how fast public opinion can change and alter a prospect's stock. Still, it’s worth considering the root of the concept from a scouting context, especially with players who see dramatic swings.
The idea that a player can skyrocket up a draft board or tumble out of contention rests upon trusting a shorter sample. For college prospects, thirty to forty games could drastically change their fortunes. The same could happen for players in overseas leagues, where the number of games can fluctuate wildly. Thus, during the season, a player’s draft stock can have a massive swing that looks like a market correction after the season, when the other pieces come into play.
One of those other pieces is reevaluation. No matter how much I try to remain impartial, scouting basketball prospects is influenced by emotions. Even those devoted to statistics have beliefs and agendas behind their methodologies. Their statistical queries and the metrics they use have some emotional influence over what’s considered important or not to those making the metrics.
While reevaluating some of the key players in the 2025 NBA Draft class, I’ve tried to take emotions out of some of my earlier takes and apply a proper critical eye to their games. In doing so, I’ve decided to buy the dip, as an investor would say, in Nolan Traore. What that means for Traore, his draft stock, and why I’m doing it comes from recognizing the changing tides of the draft stock market and looking at what niche he’ll fit into at the next level compared to the rest of the slowly-dwindling cast of this year’s class.
Stairs Up, Elevator Down
It’s worth turning the calendar back a year to gauge Nolan Traore's draft stock. Last spring was a triumph for Traore, who was building off a wildly successful stint with INSEP to start playing with Saint-Quentin in LNG Pro A. Traore was a monster during INSEP’s run in the Adidas Next Generation Tournament, showing off his signature prospect skills to a growing audience.
Traore’s appeal is clear as a prospect: he’s a fast, strong point guard who can easily get to the rim and run an offense. Traore’s physical advantages stem from his speed, which stands out even amongst pro leagues with players a decade his senior, but they also include his quick reflexes. When baked into his methodical decision-making at a breakneck pace of play, Traore looked like he could do much of what NBA teams look for in modern point guards.
He had a slightly slow start for Saint-Quentin, which was what almost every draft analyst expected. The jump from ANGT to a professional league is seismic regarding physicality, pace, and processing… or so it should have been. Instead, per Synergy, after scoring in the single digits in his first four games, Traore poured in double figures in four of his next five. Those included a pair of 25-point games, alongside great assist numbers in those later contests.
After the season, instead of taking a lucrative college offer and joining players like Egor Demin and Kasparas Jakucionis, Traore stayed loyal to Saint-Quentin. The reasoning behind his decision made sense then and now: he’d asserted himself as a starting point guard for the team already, had a chance to ingratiate himself in the system for an offseason, and would be playing in a well-respected professional league. The table was set for Traore’s stock, which had soared into Top 7 conversations for us and other outlets, to ride high to next year’s lottery.
Instead, Traore had what many considered a stagnant season at best and a troubling season at worst. Diamond-handed draft pundits who’d lauded Traore in the offseason quickly sold his stock off as guards like Jase Richardson Jr. and Jeremiah Fears had standout freshmen seasons. At this point in the year, after being a fixture in lottery conversations, Nolan Traore is fighting to remain in first round draft consideration.
At least that’s what it looks like right now. Traore has dropped into the low twenties for me on the Ouija Board at certain points throughout the year. After reevaluating him, I feel more confident that he will be on my draft board in the teens. Despite his struggles, based on his season’s tape and stats, I feel like Traore’s stock should be an easy lock as a first round draft pick, and soon the tides will turn publicly too, as more people start to look back on his season overall.
The Stock Split
So what led to Nolan Traore’s major stock sell-off this season? A lack of growth, or rather, a lack of notable growth straight off the box score. In nine games for Saint-Quentin last season, per Synergy, as a seventeen-year-old, Traore averaged 12.3 points per game, 5.8 assists per game with a 1.79 assist-to-turnover ratio, with shooting splits of 43.9% from two, 30.0% from three, and 72.2% from the free-throw line. This year, as Saint-Quentin’s starting point guard across 37 games, Traore “only” averaged 11.5 points per game, 4.6 assists per game with a 1.69 assist-to-turnover ratio, with shooting splits of 45.8% from two, 28.5% from three, and 73.8% from the foul line.
The lack of growth seems clear if you solely scout the box score, which is more acceptable given the difficulty in watching Saint-Quentin’s games versus Oklahoma State’s. Despite an offseason to prepare, Nolan Traore was virtually the same player: an average floor general who could spread the ball around with some turnover and efficiency issues. With the jumps from some other guards, the drop from Traore makes sense when you compare his seasons.
There were certainly some areas where I’d have loved to see Nolan Traore grow, but he did not this season. Traore's biggest swing skill is his shooting touch. You must hit shots off the catch and the dribble to be a successful NBA guard. You can be an acceptable guard and maybe even a starter if you can do one exceptionally well, but a lack of floor spacing can tank a stock faster than a bad earnings call.
Simply put, Nolan Traore is still a streaky shooter at best and a middling shooter at worst. Giving him these labels is harsh when he’s early in his developmental trajectory. Still, the numbers are clear across ANGT and two seasons on LNB Pro A. Per Synergy, across two seasons at Saint-Quentin, Traore has shot 48/167 on three-pointers, or just 28.7% from beyond the arc. That percentage won’t cut it against NBA defenses hungry to exploit weaknesses to stymie an offense.
His pull-up game hurts Traore the most as a shooter right now. In two seasons, Traore has shot just 19/70, or 27.1%, on pull-up two-pointers and 27/112, or 24.1%, on pull-up threes. These frigid numbers are the biggest thing holding back Nolan Traore’s draft stock, as they represent fundamental weaknesses to overcome in his game. His lack of a consistent pull-up diminishes his effectiveness as a driver and pick-and-roll operator due to how defenses can play him.
The main issues with Traore’s pull-up shooting now center around shot selection. All too often, Traore would take a leaning, fading shot in the midrange, sometimes off of just one foot, without getting his base squared and set. Those not only led to ugly misses but were also the types of looks that any defense would live with. On his threes, Traore fell too much in love with his step-back and rushed his release while off balance. While it may have happened in a blur, the mechanics of Traore’s pull-up threes were not fluid and didn’t lead him to great results.
Alongside his pull-up, Traore again struggled as a defender. It’s unfair to fault a teenager for his defensive lapses in a solid professional league, but the NBA doesn’t draft on fairness. Traore also carried a considerable offensive load as the team’s point guard. Still, I’m not willing to give him the same pass that I give other players who dominate the ball for an offense simply because, although Traore was Saint-Quentin’s point guard, he didn’t have a sky-high usage.
Traore had a handful of issues that hampered his effectiveness when guarding on-ball. He was too keen to open his hips on drives, which left him in the turnstile too often. He had real issues fighting over on-ball screens, which put his defense into rotation. Traore also played too much reactionary defense without trying to dictate his position, which left him at the mercy of stepbacks and stuttered drives to the hoop.
Nolan Traore’s off-ball defense was better, but that only means it was inconsistent over consistently mediocre. Every great closeout and contest that Traore had came from his insane reflexes, not from his reading of the play and proper positioning. He was caught up ball-watching a handful of times and had to recover, which led to reckless-yet-useful contests. While those worked, it’s not a reliable plan for Traore’s developmental future to be a reactive off-ball defender over a methodical one.
Given his great reflexes and speed, I hope Traore can turn his defensive tendencies around. That doesn’t mean, however, that I expect it to happen overnight or even before his rookie season in the NBA, which will lead to frustrating lapses. If a team is willing to bet on Traore’s creation, they’ll swallow that pill, but it’s also a bummer not to see as much growth in that sector as teams would want.
Even as I type out the understandable qualms that led to Traore’s tanking draft stock, I feel the need for an important caveat: Nolan Traore is still quite young. He’s still eighteen years old while playing against former lottery picks and professionals in the peak of their athleticism. Traore is just a few months older than Jeremiah Fears and a full year younger than Jase Richardson Jr., meaning his stagnation needs more context.
To focus only on the bad, Nolan Traore explains his slipping stock, but misses the point. Given his young age, it’s still impressive how productive Traore has been in LNB Pro A. Despite his warts, he’s been a starting point guard who has helped his team climb up to a tie for seventh in the league. That, plus the standout aspects of his game, made me much more bullish on Traore’s stock during my reevaluation.
Patience Paying Dividends
It takes a lot for a young player to break into any professional league, NBA included. The players who start as rookies are already on a path that sets them apart from most other prospects in the league. The same is true for leagues like LNB Pro A, which makes the fact that Nolan Traore stepped in midseason last year and put a vice grip on the point guard position all the more impressive.
Traore’s done so by being an effective ball-handler in the halfcourt and transition. Despite his youth, Traore is clearly one of the fastest north-south players in the league, which shows in all his basket attacks. There’s little that defenses can do to stop him in the halfcourt once he gets a head of steam and nothing that they can do in transition when he puts his mind to getting to the rim.
At the rim, Traore can throw in some wildly acrobatic finishes in the mix with his wide-open lay-ins from his speed. While Traore only has three dunks on the season, which is a bit concerning from an explosiveness perspective, his tape and lay-up stats tell a different story. Per Synergy, Traore has shot 57.2% on lay-ups this season, with more impressive numbers in transition and the pick and roll.
Traore is shooting a crisp 64.9% on two-pointers in transition this season and even a robust 7/10 on transition threes. Watching him blast past other players when he grabs a rebound and goes coast-to-coast is breathtaking and also looks quite repeatable at the NBA level. Traore also has the wherewithal to adjust his tempo during the break to set up his teammates for easy dishes inside or wide-open three-pointers out on the perimeter.
While most NBA players are highly efficient in transition, it’s notable that Traore is so young and already so competent at reading the floor at full speed. He’s a step faster than everyone, but can also place passes perfectly to shooters and drivers in transition. Traore also showed a willingness to push the ball early to maximize valuable transition opportunities. His overall work in this phase of the game should make him one of the league’s best transition point guards in a short time.
Transition isn’t even where Traore’s at his best; that’s the screen-and-roll game. Since his time with the youth FIBA French national teams and INSEP, Traore has been refining his pick-and-roll prowess. In his second season with Saint-Quentin, he’s sharpened his passing and pace to a sterling point that other teams can’t hope to match or defend.
It’s picking poisons and venoms when trying to flummox Traore as a pick-and-roll ball-handler. His burst makes it easy to get into the lane, but he rarely makes the wrong decision between rising for a lay-up or dishing to a teammate. If the drive is cut off, Traore can extend the play by opening his roller for an easy bucket or spraying the ball to an open shooter. While he has just a “Good” rating on Synergy in this role, I think Traore is far ahead of schedule in this department, given his youth and tape.
Although it’s not as widespread as it once was, all NBA teams still use many pick-and-roll concepts in their offenses. Having a player like Traore to plug in would be a boon, given he’s already so good at that particular type of offense. Since he can turbo-charge a team in transition that wants to push the pace, there’s little standing in the way of Traore having a significant role on an NBA team willing to work through his mistakes.
The 2025 NBA draft class has several pro-ready talents, but with the commitments to college basketball teams, it is starting to thin out slowly. Thus, teams will pay attention when a player like Nolan Traore has some clear offensive skills that are league-ready. That should lead to a rise in his stock, which, while not as high as it was preseason, should be commensurate with his present-day value and the great dividends he could pay in the future.
A Blue Chip Stock?
Before the season started, Nolan Traore was viewed as a potential top prospect in the 2025 NBA draft class. I was one of those who viewed him as such, placing him in the top five of my Ouija Board. Despite his fall down the draft boards, it’s worth considering where Traore could improve to reach those heights that made me and many others think of him as a potential blue chip prospect.
The first part comes from Traore’s shooting outlook. As I’ve already detailed, Traore has some major kinks to work out in his shooting. His dreams of being an NBA star fall squarely on how quickly and steadily he can improve as a jump shooter. Luckily, despite his pull-up problems, there is an area of shooting that does appear to be a solid starting spot for Traore: his spot-up shooting.
After taking just nine catch-and-shoot three-pointers last season, per Synergy, Traore upped his volume and his accuracy. Traore has taken 46 catch-and-shoot threes this season and canned them at a robust 39.1% clip. The sample size is too small to declare that he’s a good spot-up shooter, but watching him take his time on his form and get clean looks to drop offers a glimpse into what Traore can become if he improves as a shooter.
On defense, the crux of Traore’s improvements will come from becoming a competent on-ball defender and sharpening what he’s good at off the ball. Staying in front of guards is a tough ask for anyone, but Traore is plus-sized as a point guard and has shifty quickness horizontally on the basketball court. He’s also already shown his special reflexes on both ends, mostly how he generates his steals.
Any NBA team that drafts Traore will know that the defense is a major work-in-progress at the start, but they’ll hopefully be taking the long view in letting him improve. While he lacks the leaping ability that would make him a great guard athlete, his speed, quickness, and height make him a good athlete at guard. That’s enough for good coaching, improved conditioning, and a strengthening of his frame to help improve his defense.
The last bit is more nitpicky regarding Traore’s playmaking, given that it’s a strength, but it’s worth mentioning. If Traore is to reach his ceiling, he will have to become an elite creator for others. That means bending the defense to his will more often and not giving the ball away on as many possessions.
With the caveat that he’s young, Traore had a 20.4% turnover percentage last year and a 19.2% turnover percentage this year. While neither of those is a red flag, it does represent an area of growth for him. The biggest way he can reduce turnovers is to stop forcing the issue. Traore is great at playing within the flow of an offense, whether in transition or the halfcourt, but can get stuck trying to force a pass into a window that’s already closed.
From a developmental perspective, this isn’t even that stark of an error. I’d much rather see Traore making these reads instead of missing them entirely. He can go from being a great playmaker to an exceptional one if he improves his decision-making after his first read is covered. I’ve already seen some hints that that’s happening with the skip passes that Traore made this season, but continuing on the patient playmaking path will pay off for him and his NBA future.
If Nolan Traore were to shore up one of his weaknesses, whether defense or shooting, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say that his star ceiling is back on the table. He’d still have some kinks to work out of his game, but a fully-realized offensive guard with plus speed or a two-way guard that can create for others is a tantalizing option for an NBA team.
To reach that ceiling, Traore must land in the right context immediately. It’ll do him or his team no good to have him languish in a bench role or play off another lead ball-handler. No, to see the most from Nolan Traore’s future, a team must put the ball in his hands and let him play through the volatility. It’ll lead to some ugly initial offense, but the beauty of his screen navigation and dime finding will turn the tide quicker than most.
Although it’s a rare role for a player not drafted in the lottery, Traore can only succeed if a swath of possessions is allowed. His spot-up shooting is potentially a boon for an offense, but his speed and decision-making are much more important than what he can do with the ball out of his hands. That development will be necessary too, as Traore likely lacks the overall athleticism to become a heliocentric superstar, but his on-ball production is paramount to his NBA success.
Several teams are still looking for a lead guard who could be a good fit for Nolan Traore. The Brooklyn Nets should be embracing a full tank with their picks back in place and will be eager to find a replacement point guard of the future instead of D’Angelo Russell. While Bub Carrington played well for the Washington Wizards, he has the shooting chops to fit next to Traore in a versatile backcourt. New Orleans and Sacramento have bigger needs, but could also use a developing floor general who could one day jumpstart their offenses.
Wherever Nolan Traore ends up, it will be lower than his preseason draft stock. That’s just the nature of the draft stock market, but I’ll happily buy whatever stock is left with Traore. He’s shown too much at such a young age for a single season in a difficult league to affect my perception. Although his draft stock may have suffered, landing in a better situation where he can maximize his talents may ultimately be a blessing in disguise for Traore if he can properly develop his game. Then, it’ll be a one-way ticket to the moon with Nolan Traore’s stock as an NBA player and potential future star—just like so many thought it would be a year earlier.