Cedric Coward: The Noise Is Valid
Stephen dives into the game of Cedric Coward--the name steamrolling his way up big boards.
It feels like nearly every draft class has a “mystery” player that gets a ton of hype as the draft cycle nears an end.
Remember the way Shaedon Sharpe skyrocketed up boards? To kick off the 2022 NBA Draft cycle, Shaedon wasn’t considered to rank within the consensus Top 30. This was made evident in the 2022 $DRFT Initial Player Offerings report. By the time that cycle close, Shaedon had seen his stock rise to consensus Top 10. His situation at Kentucky with then-coach John Calipari was peculiar, as Sharpe graduated early to play for Kentucky. There were questions about redshirting, then it felt almost surprising that Sharpe would be eligible to enter the 2022 NBA Draft. Sharpe ultimately entered the pre-draft process while maintaining his college eligibility—he then stayed in the draft, and was selected by the Portland Trail Blazers with the seventh pick. That’s not the typical trajectory for a Top 10 pick, but the raw talent Shaedon possessed was enough for teams to feel comfortable with taking him high in the draft without any production at the college level.
What about Tidjane Salaun last year? Salaun was a player who had crazy measurables and did have hype entering the 2024 NBA Draft Class. He began that cycle as a consensus Top 25 prospect in the 2024 $DRFT Initial Player Offerings. His stock hovered around mid-lottery all season, largely due to the fact that his production did not line up with the potential. Salaun measured in around 6’10” in shoes with a wingspan close to 7’2”, but he only had shooting splits of 41/32/75 in international play, with relatively low defensive metrics for where he would ultimately be drafted. The jury is still out on how Salaun will develop, but he had one of the rougher rookie seasons in the class while playing for the Charlotte Hornets—who selected him with the sixth pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. The mystery of potential won out over the production.
Whether it’s Jalen Williams or Payton Watson in the 2022 NBA Draft class, Ziaire Williams in the 2021 NBA Draft class, James Wiseman in the 2020 NBA Draft class, or Darius Garland —who only played five games for Vanderbilt—in the 2019 NBA Draft class, NBA teams are routinely presented at least one player that requires some squinting when reviewing their profile. The trajectory may be unorthodox, but that doesn’t mean that the reward won’t outweigh the “risk”.
This year, there are some players that fit well within this “conundrum” category. Carter Bryant of Arizona is one such player, who was highly regarded coming out of high school, received a modest role at Arizona, but now is teetering around a consensus Top 10 ranking. Hansen Yang—the big man who played for Qingdao in the CBA—is coming off the heels of a solid combine performance. Possessing great size, nice feel for passing, and a potential deep ball, Yang has introduced his own amount of intrigue now that we’ve seen him perform well against his peers. However, they are not the hottest names that fit this bill.
This year, teams will have to wrestle with this question: “How high is too high for Cedric Coward?”
***For those desiring more background on Cedric Coward, my Draft Sicko cohost—Maxwell Baumbach—featured Coward in his No Stone Unturned series to start the season, giving great analysis on his journey.
The Crunch
For those familiar with how I like to do my scouting piece, you’ll know that I like to break down a prospect’s numbers to do a few things. 1) I like to establish a baseline for the readers to help them understand, statistically, the strengths and weaknesses of my featured prospect. 2) I also like to use these baselines to show how that player compares to their peers, as well as other notable players who have gone on to have success in the NBA.
Below is Cedric’s baseline:
Minutes Percentage - 14.5
BPM - 8.8
Offensive Rating - 131.3
Usage Percentage - 22.3
Effective Field Goal Percentage - 65.6
True Shooting Percentage - 70.0
Offensive Rebounding Percentage - 7.0
Defensive Rebounding Percentage - 17.2
Assist Percentage - 20.6
Turnover Percentage - 16.5
Assist : Turnover- 1.7
Block Percentage - 5.3
Steals Percentage - 1.4
Free Throw Rate - 50.8
Dunks - 1/1 (100.0%)
Two Point Percentage - 71.0 (22/31)
Three Point Percentage - 40.0 (12/30)
Right off the rip, I want to establish that the reason Coward’s Minutes Percentage is so low, is due to injury. After playing in just six games, Cedric suffered a torn labrum. That injury required surgery, with a recovery window of 4-6 months. That effectively ended his lone season with Washington State.
Despite having a low Minutes Percentage, Coward graded out favorably in essentially every field. It might be a bit optimistic to assume that if he played the rest of the year the way that he began it that he would have continued to produce the way that he did. However, it is worth noting that no other college player had a similar season to Cedric, in terms of production across the board.
The closest player comparison to Coward’s all-around production was Duke’s Kon Knueppel:
When compared Kon—who is getting buzz in the Top 3-to-7 range among most reputable draft outlets—Cedric gives him a run for his money in a number of areas. Coward is almost +3 in Offensive Rebound Percentage. He is almost +7 in Defensive Rebounding Percentage. He is around +16 in Free Throw Rate. He is almost +5 in Block Percentage.
Even in the areas where Kon is graded higher than Cedric, it is relatively marginal. What stands out to me is that Cedric has a higher Assist Percentage than Kon, though he hasn’t been used in as much of an on-ball role. Also, Coward’s Effective Field Goal Percentage and True Shooting Percentage are in line with those of hyper-efficient big men, though he took 8.5 three-point attempts per 100 possessions.
Knueppel also put these numbers up playing with the presumed #1 pick in this draft, Cooper Flagg, and a potential lottery pick in Khaman Maluach.
I tried to run Cedric’s numbers against the entire BartTorvik database in such a way that I did not cook the books. It’s hard to do so for Cedric. For one, there is not a player in the database who recorded a Block Percentage of 5 while shooting at least 40% from deep. Once you start searching for players that have an Offensive Rebound Percentage of at least 5, a Defensive Rebound Percentage of at least 15, a Block Percentage of at least 5, and a 71% Two-Point Percentage, you quickly get into the big men.
Once I plugged in a BPM of at least 8, an Assist Percentage of at least 20, a Two Point Percentage of at least 70, and a Three Point Percentage of at least 40, the only name that populated was Lonzo Ball.
That’s not Cedric’s player type, either. It is interesting, though, that he shows some parallels in a highly intelligent, two-way player, who was more ball-dominant than Coward is right now.
A potential regression to the mean in some of these categories may have happened, but the interesting thing with Coward is that he was doing things that were historically unique. Some may consider that a bad thing, but the NBA is a league that specializes in uniqueness.
The Dive
This is where things get really fun. The numbers can be used to argue both sides of the Cedric Coward argument—if there is another side? However, the film is where things seem to be a little bit more concrete. We’ll dive into the film Coward put up this season, but we’ll also look at the film prior to this year to see how real some areas of his game are—and have been.
The Offense
This season, Cedric Coward ranked in the 97th percentile in Points Per Possession (PPP) offensively on 1.161 PPP. This came on only 87 credited offensive possessions. What makes that grade so interesting, is that Coward graded out in the 96th percentile at Eastern Washington—scoring 1.140 PPP. That was on 429 credited possessions. Sure, the conference at Eastern Washington wasn’t the best, but he did score 16 points against Ole Miss, 21 points against Cincinnati, and 14 points against Stanford that season. Even going back to his first season with Eastern Washington, Cedric ranked in the 99th percentile on 204 credited possessions.
In other words, Coward has been a very good and efficient scorer his entire time playing Division I basketball.
Shooting
Cedric Coward (#0 in white) shot 40% this season on 8.5 threes per 100 possessions. What really matters for shooting prospects is how much attention they attract. Another way to put that is: Do they shoot the ball enough that volume commands respect from the defense? The answer with Coward is a quick “yes.”
In this clip, where Cedric matched up against his old team, we have Eastern Washington defending in a zone.
How many times have we seen NBA teams freeze this year during the playoffs, and not be able to hit open jumpers?
The dialogue here is quite simple. Coward is lined up on the right wing, the ball swings along the perimeter, Cedric is open when he catches the ball, and then he hits it. This season, Cedric ranked in the 83rd percentile while shooting over 46% from deep. Sure, that was on just 13 attempts due to injury, so how much can we trust it?
It turns out that Cedric was a great shooter at Eastern Washington as well. In this clip against Cincinnati, we see Coward kick the ball to the right corner. As his teammate rips through and drives baseline, Cedric maintains his position on the strong-side wing. As the defense collapses, the ball is moved to the top of the key, then immediately to the corner opposite of our guy.
The ball continues to move from the left corner, then rotates all the way along the perimeter. The ball eventually ends up back in the hands of an open Cedric Coward. Cedric rises and cashes in the deep ball.
On even more open attempts from deep (43) than he had this season, Coward connected on over 51% of open threes. The year before that—on just 17 possessions—Coward shot over 35% on such looks. That graded out as “Good” according to Synergy.
Cedric has a great ability to know what area of the court to occupy. In this clip against Northern Colorado, we see a great example of that.
As the ball is brought up the court, it is quickly moved to the right wing. The ball-handler drives right, which attracts the attention of the helpside defense. A screen is set under the basket, which forces the help to close out to the rim. This gives Cedric the entire left side of the court.
Coward could have driven to the basket, but opts to put himself in position for his teammate to make the easiest possible pass: straight ahead for a corner three. The ball is delivered cleanly to Cedric, who cashes in the pot up three.
Coward ranked in the 90th percentile on all spot-ups this season.
That is a significant jump from last season, but he did grade out in the 63rd percentile on spot-up possessions—which graded out as “Good,” per Synergy.
In this clip against Northern Arizona, Coward shows the same sort of relocation ability that makes him such a tough cover. This play starts with Cedric operating on a post-up (more on that in a bit). As his defender maneuvers out in front of him, Coward slips behind him and darts out to the opposite corner. The ball is skipped out to him in the corner. Cedric catches, launches, and hits the jumper.
In his two seasons at Eastern Washington, Coward hit 36.0% and 36.8%, respectively, on his spot-up plays.
Post-Ups
One of the more interesting aspects of Cedric Coward’s shot diet (21.2% of his play types) has been his post-up game. At the NBA Draft Combine, Cedric measure in a little over 6’5”, but his wingspan was over 7’2”! With his insane length, Coward can easily finish with tough angles around aggressive defenders.
We see that in this clip against Iowa this season. Coward is defended by Payton Sandfort (#20 in yellow). Our guy passes the ball out to the wing to start this clip off. He immediately seals Payton behind him, and gets the ball back. Once he gets the ball, Cedric dislodges Sandfort with a power dribble. Following that move, Cedric spins baseline and finishes over the top of his defender. Two easy points.
Washington State relied on Coward’s post game in some consistent scenarios in his short run with the team—particularly on Baseline Out of Bounds plays (BLOBS) or Sideline Out of Bounds plays (SLOBS). In this clip against Northern Colorado, Cedric gets the ball in a BLOB set. He takes a quick moment to feel out his defender, working him to the middle of the lane. As his man (and the help) works to close off the center of the paint, Coward suddenly shifts toward the baseline.
Cedric sells a quick head fake to get both defenders off their feet to block the shot. He then counters, again, going under the rim for the reverse. That extra bit of savvy keeps the reach of the defense at bay—both the fake and then the use of the rim for an extra bit of protection.
This year, Cedric ranked in the 90th percentile scoring out of post-ups, and in the 37th percentile in the amount of his total shots coming from post-ups. Those numbers are good, but actually a tad bit lower than his second season with Eastern Washington, where he was in the 97th and 66th percentile in those fields, respectively.
Here is a clip from last season, with Coward proving his post-up skills against SEC-level competition in Ole Miss. This clip is against Allen Flanigan—who was listed at close to 6’7” and 215 pounds at the 2024 Portsmouth Invitational Tournament.
Cedric gathers the ball and then faces Flanigan up in the mid-post. You can see a similar approach here, as he backs his defender toward the paint. Coward spins baseline and sells an up-fake. Here, he doesn’t go under the rim to finish with a reverse. Even in the midst of the trees, Coward finishes a tough look with three defenders in his vicinity.
You may be wondering: Why is this important? Do we really expect Cedric Coward to get shots off from here in the NBA?
My initial thought is “maybe?” However, even if Coward doesn’t get many shots like this in the league, the footwork can still be appreciated and could lead to development in other aspects of his game. Also, the wherewithal to know how defenses will respond to his actions shows a strong bit of processing and feel for the game.
Passing
Cedric does not operate as a lead initiator at this point in his career, and one could argue that he was working his way into being comfortable in that role prior to injury. Despite the perceived weakness, Coward showed solid improvement in this decision-making, albeit in a small sample size.
For a player like Cedric, the biggest thing for him to be able to do in the NBA is just make the right plays. In this clip against Idaho, Coward gets the ball swung to him on the left wing. His teammate, LaJaun Watts (#4 in white), seals his defender while establishing position on the left block. Coward makes a well-timed and placed entry pass—where only Watts can get the ball. Watts gathers and converts the paint touch. This may appear to be simple or routine, but entry passes get blown up all of the time. It’s not only that, but again, it shows a level of connectivity Cedric has to go along with great shooting.
If that doesn’t tickle your fancy enough, let’s add a splash of fun. In this clip, we see Washington State looking to push the break, with Northern Colorado getting back on defense. As the ball is advanced, our guy gets the ball swung to him on the left wing. What stands out here is how Coward maintains his eyes and head up in order to find an open teammate. Putting his back to his defender gives him a little more room to protect the ball, and it forces his man to commit to him.
His actions also grab the attention of help defenders in the middle, as they are expecting this high-volume scorer to make a play to the lane. This allows Dane Erikstrup (#32 in white) to veer out to the opposite wing, where he has an open shot if he gets the ball. Cedric delivers a beautiful pass to Erikstrup—who catches the pass in stride and puts up the deep ball.
Still not enough, eh? How about this?
With one of the best perimeters in college basketball—Christian Davis (#5 in red)—picking him up, we see something many want to see more of with our guy: creating off the bounce. This clip begins with the ball at the top of the key. Ethan Price (#3 in white) pump fakes a three-pointer and drives into the paint. This results in the defense converging on the ball. Price kicks the ball back out to Coward.
Cedric sees Davis closing out on him aggressively. He responds by driving to his left and toward the lane. This cause his defender—as well as the help—to apply pressure to Coward. Cedric hops to the paint, which engages a third defender. While this is happening, Erikstrup slinks out to the strong-side corner. Coward kicks the ball out to his open teammate, who cashes in the open three.
The trajectory in his playmaking was going wonderfully, with his Assist-to-Turnover (ATO) ratio improving from 0.78 to 1.41. The improvement in this regard really helped to solidify the connective role he could play early on in the NBA.
The Defense
What makes Cedric such an intriguing project isn’t just him being a good floor spacer with some upside to become better on that end. Coward has utilized his 7’2”+ wingspan and 8’10” standing reach to be an impactful defender.
Cedric Coward possesses quick hands to go along with his length. Going back to the game he had earlier this year, we get a chance to see how quickly Coward can strike an unsuspecting ball-handler. This clip begins with Cedric’s man getting the ball on the left wing. As his man faces up and looks for an open teammate, he makes a fatal mistake: he keeps the ball low and in front of him. This false sense of security results in Cedric swiping the ball up in the air and stealing the ball.
Quick feet, keen eyes, fast hands: they all add up to a versatile defensive playmaker. In this clip against Portland State, we start with the ball at the top of the key. The offense works into a pick-and-roll set, with Cedric’s man running baseline to the weak corner. As the ball reaches the left wing, the ball handler picks up his dribble and kicks the ball out to the top of the key. The ball works its way to the right wing, which moves Coward out, halfway between the block and the right corner.
The ball-handler sees our guy playing halfway between two offensive players, in large part due to the mismatch in size in the paint. The ball-handler attempts to move the ball to the right corner. It’s actually not a bad idea, as this would force Cedric out to the corner, and a cleaner entry pass for the size mismatch in the paint. The pass is made.
Cedric puts his length to great use, shooting the pass like a defensive back, intercepting the pass.
A few things worth noting right about now. 1) Cedric tied for the ninth-largest hands at the NBA Draft Combine—tying with big men like Danny Wolf, Asa Newell, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Johni Broome, Yaxel Lendeborg, and Alex Condon. 2) Coward posted a Steal Percentage of 1.4—and recorded Steal Percentages of 1.6 and 2.1 the previous two years, respectively.
Going back to the Eastern Washington game, there is a clip that shows how Cedric can maintain his positioning on defense. After some shenanigans, the ball starts out on the top of the key, and in the hands of Cedric’s assignment. A screen is set to our guy’s left, which he slips under and recovers seamlessly. This slippage of the screen—getting skinny—makes him a hard target for screeners to obliterate.
Once Cedric gets back in front of his man, his man attempts to dislodge Coward. No avail. Another dislodge attempt is followed by a spin, a pro hop, and a layup. Because Coward plays with his off-hand up, and because he kept his feet moving, Coward was able to maintain his position and play the shot perfectly. Because Cedric was never out of the play, he is able to reject the layup off the glass and close out the possession.
There are multiple areas of the floor that Cedric will have to cover on defense. Sure, fronting a ball-handler looking to go through his chest is important, but Cedric will have to cover ground as a perimeter defender. He’ll need to chase shooters along the perimeter. He’ll need to make closeouts. He’ll need to do something…just like this clip shows.
Going back to the Iowa game, Cedric is lined up against Payton Sandfort. The ball starts off on the top of the key, with Coward defending Sandfort in the right corner. After a quick screen, the ball is moved to the left wing. Iowa runs a double drag screen set here for Sandfort, which means our guy is going to have to fight to contest his assignment.
Just like in the previous clip against Eastern Washington, Coward snakes his way past two screens and is able to regain his ground. Not only does Cedric regain his position, but he is actually able to block Sandfort’s shot! What stands out on his contest is obviously his reach, but he doesn’t foul the shooter. Plus, he gives the desired amount of landing space to prevent possible injury and/or free throws.
Last defensive clip, I promise. I really wanted to showcase this clip for a few reasons. One, it’s a fun “get you out of your seat” play. Two, it shows his commitment to stay in a possession—even if he is “outmatched” or outnumbers. Lastly, it’s a great visualization of Cedric’s athleticism.
In this clip against Idaho, Idaho actually has a numerical advantage against Washington State—a three-on-two break. The ball is moved to the right wing by the 6’9”, 245-pound Kyson Rose (#34 in black). This opens the lane for Rose, as the strong side defender has to close out or give up an open three. The defender closes out, giving Rose the lane he wants. What should be a “gimmie” pair of points turns into Cedric rotating over, getting in front of Rose’s launch pad, flying in the air perfectly vertical, and a ridiculous rejection by Coward.
Cedric’s 38.5-inch max vertical leap graded out ninth in the NBA Draft Combine—tying with consensus Top 5 pick V.J. Edgecombe. In terms of block history, Cedric recorded a Block Percentage of 5.3. This actually topped his previous two seasons of 3.7 and 3.2 (both still very good), respectively.
Curtains
So, what do we do with all of this information? Truth be told, I don’t know.
I’m conflicted.
Cedric Coward has shown a continuous upward trajectory that consists of increased production with increased levels of competition. His player type is one of the most coveted in the NBA. There are concerns surrounding his handle, but I feel they are overstated. Even if Coward isn’t an on-ball maestro yet, he isn’t the type of person you would bet against developing a good enough one. Every NBA team would love to have a 6’6” wing that has good size and athleticism, who connects on the majority of their jumpers, and can defend at a good clip. Literally every team.
His production this season could only be compared to Kon Knueppel—who is garnering real buzz as a potential #3 pick overall, and likely won’t fall outside the Top 7 or 8. I have Cedric 12th on my board right now, in a tier that extends up to #8. This isn’t just catching up with the crowd. This is film-based, intel-based analysis on a player who had a fair amount of questions centered on whether or not he would want to return to college.
With the noise surrounding Cedric Coward’s draft stock, the draft community is coming to grips with the idea that he will likely be drafted. We’re having to dive into his tape and the intel on him again, trying to measure how valid the noise might be. There are no certainties when it comes to evaluation, but Coward is as valid a lottery-level talent as there is in this class.
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