Charlotte Hornets 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Preview
The No Ceilings crew continues their Draft Lottery series, featuring the Charlotte Hornets.
Rowan: Despite playing in a rich region for talented basketball, the Charlotte Hornets haven’t had too much success in their franchise history. They last made the playoffs in the 2015-2016 season, led by Kemba Walker; besides a few stray play-in flirtations, though, the Hornets haven’t done a lot of winning in almost a decade.
It hasn’t been for a lack of effort, however, but few of the efforts have amounted to much winning. The team has drafted good players like Malik Monk, P.J. Washington, LaMelo Ball, Mark Williams, and Brandon Miller, to name a few. However, they haven’t always reaped the benefits of said players. Both Monk and Washington are just now entering their primes, but both needed to leave Charlotte to fully unlock their potential as NBA players.
While it’s rarely just about one guy, the Hornets have been hurt by LaMelo Ball’s injury issues. When Ball is healthy, good things happen, as he’s almost an offense all to himself. He made the NBA All-Star Team in 2022 and often dazzles with his flashy and impactful play. The problem is that recurring ankle issues have sidelined Ball for the past two seasons, as he’s only played 58 games in that timespan.
Brandon Miller did look like another franchise tentpole after he silenced doubters and had a quality rookie campaign, alongside some solid play from Mark Williams on both ends since he was drafted. Still, the Hornets simply have too many holes and too much instability to develop a consistent winning formula and push for the playoffs. They have holes at guard, wing, and big men, which gives them a bit of freedom in who they target in the draft.
Stephen, what do you think the Hornets need to add to their team to get back to the playoffs? Can they do it with LaMelo or have they been too disjointed to count him as a franchise cornerstone? What should they be looking for in the 2024 draft to turn the team around?
Stephen: Lots of great questions to wrap up that breakdown, Rowan, and I’ll do my best to answer them all. To start, the Hornets just need to continue to inject young talent into this team. It seems that their draft picks have been hits as of late, so I don’t think that there is much to worry about with who could be available when Charlotte is on the clock with the #6 pick. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like the player they add will be the reason the Hornets return to the playoffs. However, they could be a valuable contributing piece for a team with some solid pieces already. It feels strange for me to feel so positive about a team that finished 21-61 but again, I am not worried about how Charlotte approaches the draft.
Who they select–especially regarding position–could be interesting. Brandon Miller has clearly proven that he was the right player for them with the second pick last season (we still love Scoot), and he is going to hold down a perimeter position for quite a while. The Hornets continue to rave about Mark Williams, so it appears that they love their pivot position. Nick Richards is a solid backup as well. This is where we get to your question regarding LaMelo, Rowan. I think a team like Charlotte has to count him among their foundational players. Players aren’t lining up to play in the Queen City right now so, for now, Ball is among their big rocks. What I will say is that the Charlotte front office could supplement the ball handling through wings or forwards who can play alongside LaMelo when he is in the lineup while also sharing the load with Miller if/when Ball has to take some time off. The problem is that there aren’t too many players that fit a timeline of growth with those aforementioned skills. But, just because there aren’t many, does not mean that there aren’t any.
There are two players that I think fit for what Charlotte should target that I want to throw your way–one that could complement LaMelo, and then one that could be a direct answer to your question regarding LaMelo’s reliability as a franchise player.
The first name is going to be one we’ve seen on our site as recently as our latest Mock Draft, and that’s UConn’s Stephon Castle. It’s becoming more likely that Castle could be around at pick six, and he is the best player to play with Charlotte’s complement of young players. He is used to playing with other high-usage players, as Tristen Newton had a usage of 26.1% and Donovan Clingan’s was 24.6%. The sole purpose of Stephon committing to the Huskies was to develop winning tendencies. Castle can come in and not upset the apple cart on day one, and can contribute through rebounding, off-ball movement, and stifling defense. This would be music to the ears of Hornets fans, as LaMelo Ball could take on the lesser defensive assignment in the backcourt.
There is also real upside for Stephon to grow into a higher-usage player on this younger team. It’s a contentious topic, but there is a possibility that Castle could become a more dynamic on-ball threat. The range of outcomes in that regard is somewhere between Jared Butler to Khris Middleton. Either way, the Hornets bringing in a competitor—who will bust his hump on defense and on the glass while having a ton of upside on offense—could be the move for their franchise.
Let’s have a little fun with this next one here, Rowan. Let’s say that Charlotte does have some reservations about LaMelo’s ability to maintain his health and no longer wants to invest in him as a franchise player (this is just a mental exercise, so let’s just have fun, okay?). There could be a player that has tremendous upside as one of about a handful of 18-year-olds on Draft Night who will be available with the sixth pick. It’s not Reed Sheppard. It’s not Rob Dillingham. It’s not Devin Carter. Let’s just imagine that ACC product Carlton “Bub” Carrington shocks the world, and is selected over one of those more popular names.
Bub would have some positional size, as he is about 6’5” in shoes with a wingspan of 6’8”. He is one of the best ball handlers in all of the class. He spent 38% of his total possessions (ranked in the 94th percentile in college) operating out of the pick-and-roll. He graded out as “Excellent”, per Synergy. He didn’t shoot the ball well–he shot 32% on catch-and-shoot three-pointers and on dribble jumpers. He did, however, rank in the 85th percentile on his twos, while showing the ability to get to his spots with poise beyond his years.
With his youth, his size, his handle, and production in the most commonly used play type for a guard, Carrington could provide an option for Charlotte to re-up at the point.
What do you think about those names, Rowan? I would also like to hear your thoughts on the questions you threw my way!
Rowan: I think you’re spot on with a lot of your thoughts about the guard play in Charlotte, Stephen. They’ve seen some level of team success with LaMelo Ball at the helm and it’s too early, in my opinion, to re-enter a rebuild without a player who has starred for them. To make up for his lost time, however, the Hornets do need to add some secondary playmaking.
That playmaking could come either at the off-guard spot or in the frontcourt with a rangy forward. As you mentioned, there aren’t too many spots that are locked down in the team’s rotation, which means they can be a bit more flexible than, say, Memphis. That gives them the freedom to not limit themselves to just looking at either guards or wings with their selection.
I like the direction you’re thinking with both Castle and Carrington. Each of them has the size to play next to Ball in a variety of lineups, while both offer complementary skill sets to him. They also both mesh well with Miller, as he can punish opposing teams off the ball while they draw in the defense with their gravity.
I’ll start with Castle, as he’s one of my favorite players in this class. Let’s say that the Hornets end up with the median long-term outcome for Stephon Castle. That’ll look like a two-way starting guard who does most of his work on defense but is a secondary playmaker on offense. Castle both has a great wingspan and some of the best defensive fundamentals in this class, which would help shore up the perimeter defense woes for Charlotte.
While his shooting wouldn’t suck in too much of the defense, Castle’s a great athlete and a heady cutter who could get a bunch of easy buckets off of LaMelo’s dimes. It gets more interesting to imagine him getting back to the downhill driving force that he was in high school, where he served as the primary creator for his team. If that’s the Castle that the Hornets ultimately get, there may not be a better homogenous backcourt combination in the Eastern Conference.
On the topic of Carrington, I think there are worlds where that selection makes sense too. You mention that the Hornets may look to him if they don’t believe in Ball’s availability, but there was enough smoke last year about Charlotte considering Scoot Henderson that you’ve got to believe the team will consider another pure point guard to pair with Ball.
Carrington’s one of the youngest shot-creators in this draft class and still has a lot of room to grow. He improved his finishing as the year went on, but he could stand to be stronger on both ends. He didn’t show off his stuff as a sniper, but his proficiency on two-pointers would be a welcome release valve for the Hornets when the defense collapses around Ball.
I’ll throw out a few more names in similar veins to what you’re suggesting, to spice it up even further. You mentioned Reed Sheppard briefly, but he’d be a dynamite fit with what Charlotte has already. Sheppard was a certified sniper from distance; per Synergy, he shot 51.4% from deep, which graded out as “Excellent” for those possessions. The Hornets ranked just 21st in three-point shooting at 35.5% and Sheppard would give them a shot in the arm with his best skill. Plus, his defensive chops are the same salve for Ball’s lapses to complete the backcourt harmony, as Sheppard had a 4.6% steal percentage and 2.5% block percentage as a freshman.
But let’s get weirder. What if the Hornets want to dig into both size and defense while still banking on a player with untapped upside? Matas Buzelis could surely fit that bill. Sure, he only shot 27.3% from deep, which does limit his total effectiveness on offense, but he’d be the beneficiary of bent defenses and reduced attention compared to his role last year on the G-League Ignite.
Buzelis would be a fascinating complement to Brandon Miller, as he covers well for Miller’s deficiencies. While Miller spreads the floor and creates his own offense, Buzelis is a taller play-finisher. Buzelis is a lanky, cerebral defender who can impact plays all on his own, which Miller can’t quite do at this stage in his career. Pairing these two young forwards together could give Charlotte their 3-4-5 combo for the next half decade at least, which would go a long way toward the continuity necessary for the playoffs.
There are other players like Nikola Topic, Devin Carter, Ron Holland, and Cody Williams who could approximate the impact of the players we’ve already brought up. Do any of those names stick out as someone who could still make sense for Charlotte? What are your thoughts on either Sheppard or Buzelis in the Queen City?
Stephen: I think it’s worth discussing both G League prospects, and I’ll try to do so in a manner that doesn’t keep us here all day. The theory of Matas could make a ton of sense with Charlotte. I like the idea of another bigger wing that brings a lot of tools alongside Brandon Miller. Buzelis routinely brings a lot of Franz Wagner and Hedo Turkoglu comparisons, so pairing a long, playmaking wing that has connective ability with the scoring versatility of Miller could be appetizing. The shot does worry me, but I think there is a shot that Buzelis can give some minutes at the four as he continues to get strong, which would allow his defensive upside, rebounding, off-ball activity, and ball handling to be accentuated.
Ron Holland could be similarly interesting, but in a very different way. Ron is a more fluid athlete than Matas, and is a better perimeter defender. He doesn’t come with the same size, but Holland is about the height Charlotte could like at the two. Ron led the Ignite team in scoring, with many of his points coming by way of transition opportunities. As poor as Matas was from a distance, Holland was slightly worse. Several people apply the “well, no one ever really shot the ball with the Ignite, so maybe he can shoot it” philosophy. That can be a bit of a crazy string to pull, but Ron did shoot almost 74% from the free throw line. He would bring a ton of athletic tools, and the potential to be a stingy defender. An open-court running mate to pair with LaMelo who could be a dynamic defender might be a strong consideration for the Hornets.
Reed Sheppard has a ton of fans, with many believing that he is going to be the ultimate stabilizer. It’s unlikely that he will be a 50% three-point shooter in the NBA, but it is likely that he will be an above-average deep threat. Should he be the dynamic creator that people think he could be, that gives Charlotte someone who can play alongside Ball and could pick up some of the load when he misses games. His defense was what impressed me the most about his lone season at Kentucky. He posted a 2.5 block percentage as a 6’3” guard with a matching wingspan! He also recorded a steals percentage of 4.6. It helps when you have a 42-inch vertical, I suppose, as well as being able to make good cuts.
I want to throw two more names out there, if you could indulge me, Rowan. The first name is another Ignite teammate, Tyler Smith. We had Smith go 32nd in our latest Mock Draft at No Ceilings, but have him ranked 22nd on our Big Board. There are several places and people that rank him in the lottery–some in the Top 10! He is one of the very few Ignite players to actually shoot while playing for them. He is a well-built athlete, who also gives some interesting defensive tools.
The other name is Tidjane Salaun. There is no denying that he is becoming one of the highest risers in this class. Teams can get a little antsy when they are around this range in the draft. I’m reminded of when Patrick Williams started to get a ton of buzz in the 2020 draft. Leading up to draft day, Williams gained momentum and the Bulls fell in love with the Florida State prospect. Salaun has been on a meteoric rise. He has the frame, tools, and energy that gets the people going. The shot hasn’t been reliable, but people like the way it looks when it goes in.
Do any of those two outside-the-box names intrigue you, Rowan?
Rowan: Well, given I’m one of “several people” who have Tyler Smith in the lottery range on my Ouija Board, I’m certainly intrigued!
I really like the stretch four capabilities that Smith could bring to a team. Sure, he needs a lot of defensive seasoning and is a bit of a risk if he can’t shoot well, but he profiles as another great complement to Brandon Miller. It’s a pretty idealized scenario to be catching passes from LaMelo Ball to start your career.
Salaun is someone who is certainly intriguing, but I do worry a bit about how nebulous of a developmental context he may have in Charlotte. Players like JT Thor and James Bouknight, for example, saw their careers stagnate instead of flourish without clear plans to bolster their skills. That could happen with Salaun too, since he’s such a ball of clay.
If he hits, however, he’d be a two-way menace that could solve a lot of problems for the Hornets. In a way, that’s the beauty of Charlotte’s pick this year: there are so many directions that they could go in to improve their team. Whether it’s one of the prospects we mentioned or someone else entirely, with or without LaMelo, it’ll be fascinating to chart how they improve on the Hornets and how they help the Hornets improve as a team.
Thanks guys. Think Castle makes a ton of sense to complement the offensive firepower of Miller + Ball. Adding Tyler Smith into the mix is a super fun thought experiment as well.