Charting the Waters: Get to Know Players Testing the NBA Draft Process
Stephen breaks down each Early Entrant collegiate player who is going through the pre-draft process while maintaining their college eligibility!
Come On In; The Water’s Fine…
With college basketball games well behind us, we are now in the sweet spot of the season. No more work. No more analysis. No more film. Absolutely no second-guessing ourselves…
Not!
In a lot of ways, this part of the draft cycle is the most difficult for me. There are a ton of players who stopped playing games well before others. We’ve seen the stock of players like Walter Clayton Jr. rise a ton—strongly influenced by what we saw during March Madness. We’ve seen players like Bogoljub Markovic see his stock rise due to a strong outing at Hoop Summit. Cedric Coward has been a “draft underground” name for months and months, and now prominent outlets (including us) are proclaiming him as a possible Top 20 name.
Now that players are conducting pre-draft workouts, it’s only a matter of time before we see another seemingly “out-of-nowhere” name gain traction.
My job here isn’t to make any of that any better. In fact, I’m wrestling daily with how I feel about some of these names. One of the latest events has me contemplating how I feel about a specific group of prospects.
Once we get the prospects who are testing the draft waters, my stomach aches a bit. For one, I go through my Big Board and copy/paste players who are not entering the draft from one spreadsheet to another. Then, I am surprised by a few names that are opting to go get pre-draft feedback. Those players in particular give me pause. I immediately have questions. “What feedback are they getting?” or more importantly, “What am I missing?” Now I get to burn through film again.
What I want to do here is sort the collegiate players who are simply testing the waters. We’re going to break them off into tiers, and expound on them a bit. We won’t delay any longer—let’s dive in!
Tier One: Potential First Round Talent
Players: Carter Bryant, Boogie Fland, Tahaad Pettiford, Thomas Sorber, Yaxel Lendeborg, Cedric Coward
Carter Bryant | Freshman | Forward | Arizona | 6’8” | 220 | 19
Carter Bryant is a player who came into the season with a considerable amount of hype. An RSCI Top 20 prospect, Bryant committed to Arizona—a team that notoriously plays many players in their rotation. Bryant was just seventh in minutes per game under coach Tommy Lloyd. Despite a modest role, Bryant showed himself to be a menace on defense—posting a Block Percentage of 5.8, and a Steal Percentage of 2.8. He made all 17 of his dunks and shot over 37% from deep on 8.4 attempts per 100 possessions. The problem is that we didn’t see as much of Bryant as we wanted, and he only had a Usage Percentage of just 16%. In this class, I don’t see how he isn’t a lottery-level talent; if he is simply testing the waters, though, perhaps his camp isn’t getting the assurance they’re looking for as of now. That said, I’d be shocked to see him withdraw at this stage.
Boogie Fland | Freshman | Guard | Arkansas | 6’2” | 174 | 19
Like Carter Bryant, Boogie Fland came into the year with plenty of notoriety. In fact, he ranked 17th in RSCI, over Bryant. Boogie’s situation makes it a little easier to digest him maintaining his college eligibility. His Arkansas team took a long time to congeal, and he missed significant time due to an injury to his right thumb. Boogie did a great job showing that he can do a lot on the ball. Posting an Assist-to-Turnover (A:TO) ratio of 3.7 showed his tremendous patience and processing. His point-of-attack defense was praised routinely throughout the year. Fland did struggle a great deal finishing at the rim—ranking in just the third Percentile at the rim. The shooting was okay. He shot just 34% on his threes—but he ranked in the 97th Percentile in catch-and-shoot jumpers. Boogie is this year’s version of the prospect whose (potential) single season of college ball needs to be taken with a grain of salt, and weighed differently in conjunction with his high school/AAU tape.
Tahaad Pettiford | Freshman | Guard | Auburn | 6” | 175 | 20
Unlike the previous names, Tahaad Pettiford was not in the RSCI Top 20. He did come in with some buzz, though, and found his way to be trusted on Bruce Pearl’s senior-laden team. He did a great job of balancing leaning on some of the more established players while still showcasing his potent scoring ability. Arguably possessing the best handles in this class, Tahaad ranked in the 85th percentile in dribble jumpers, hitting over 35% on his threes off of the bounce. While there is work that needs to be done as a passer to reach his ultimate ceiling, Pettiford showed off some slick feeds and ranked in the 78th Percentile in pick and roll plays that included passes. That is identical to his scoring out of pick-and-roll sets. For all the good things he does, Tahaad is small—listed at 6”, and ranked in just the 26th Percentile scoring at the rim. As much as I love Tahaad (I have him 17th on my board), I can understand some of the hesitation NBA teams could have with him. His defense and rebounding numbers aren’t great, either. The feedback is going to be interesting. He may be asked to get stronger, but NBA teams can probably help in that area more so than any university could. We’ll see how teams value his offense and how high he feels he should go.
Thomas Sorber | Freshman | Big | Georgetown | 6’10” | 255 | 19
Thomas Sorber finds himself in a bit of a positional battle within this class. Derick Queen and Khaman Maluach are considered to be the best big men. Outside of them, Danny Wolf is considered Sorber’s biggest competition for the next best big prospect. After a solid year for the Hoyas, Thomas produced enough to be considered as a Top 20 pick. As a big man, he posted an Offensive Rebound Percentage of 9.5 and a Defensive Rebound Percentage of 21.9. He also recorded a Block Percentage of 7.6—almost a full percent higher than Khaman Maluach. There is also similar potential to Maluach in that Thomas could stretch his shot to three-point range. Sorber is listed at 6’10” and doesn’t have elite, quick-twitch athleticism. He is, however, very strong, and shows some upside with his footwork. Sorber could have teetering value based on positional depth that could have him outside of a Top 20 range—which could be deemed unacceptable based on his talent and upside.
Yaxel Lendeborg | Senior | Forward | UAB | 6’9” | 240 | 22
Yaxel Lendeborg seems to be one of the more curious cases as the draft moves closer. For the majority of the cycle, Yaxel has felt like a sure-fire first round talent. Now, Lendeborg has announced his declaration for the draft while maintaining his eligibility, as well as transferring to Michigan. That feels like a signal that his status isn’t as clear-cut as many thought it would be. On the year, “Yax” showed a solid up-tick in his three point shooting—upping his percentage to over 36%. That shooting does a ton for his game, which is built upon a fun blend of strength and feel. Yax rebounds very well—which is a skill that can be indicative for NBA success. Along with the rebounding, Lendeborg logged a 2:0 A:TO, which matches the level of decision-making seen on film. Playing for UAB, Lendeborg played in unique defensive positions, which could give pause to his NBA projection. Lendeborg has been getting a fair amount of second round projections from some reputable draft publications, which may be reflective of conversations being had. Worst case, Lendeborg transfers up to Michigan and works with the staff that did wonders with Danny Wolf—who declared for the draft, outright.
Cedric Coward | Senior | Wing | Washington State | 6’6” | 206 | 21
I briefly touched on him earlier, but Cedric Coward has been on the draft radar all season. While that has been the case, his draft stock itself seemingly has been a powder keg waiting until the latter portions of the cycle to explode. What makes Cedric’s situation so interesting is that he played just six games this season. In those games, he failed to score in double figures just twice—but he scored over 20 points in three of those games. After transferring up from Eastern Washington, Coward scored over 17 PPG and shot 40% from deep on 8.5 attempts per 100 possessions. Beyond the shooting, Cedric showed great strength and athleticism. His free-throw rate was over 50, he was in the 88th percentile at the rim, and he had a True Shooting Percentage of 70! Defensively, Cedric has the requisite strength and instincts to be a trustworthy, two-way player. His self-creation is a work in progress, and it’s impossible to know if that would have improved over the season. I always say that the draft is all about noise. The time you make it is vitally important. Should Cedric have the sort of workouts and combine performance many are anticipating, he could absolutely stay in the draft and go in the Top 20.
Tier Two: Likely To Be Drafted If They Stay
Players: Karter Knox, Alex Condon, Otega Oweh, Miles Byrd, RJ Luis Jr., Darrion Williams, Jamir Watkins, Milos Uzan
Karter Knox | Freshman | Wing | Arkansas | 6’6” | 220 | 20
At face value, the numbers for Karter Knox may appear to be pedestrian. After you contextualize his season, you could see why NBA teams could value his upside. Know didn’t start his first game until nearly the end of December. From there, Karter’s minutes fluctuated. Even still, Karter improved game by game and finished his freshman season shooting 35% from deep. He also finished in the 96th percentile at the rim, and held his own on defense. Where the questions lie is his small role and low usage—can he scale up in competition? Can he be given more? What does that look like? Spending the majority of the year as a play finisher, NBA teams may want to know if he can be trusted to make good decisions with the ball. Efficiency is important, but Karter will need to prove that he is worth a professional defense’s time to aggressively close out on him. For a player who has proved himself reliable in one of (if not the) most athletic conferences in college basketball, Knox will need to show a more complete game in the combine to get the most out of his draft stock.
Alex Condon | Sophomore | Big | Florida | 6’11” | 230 | 20
Remember when I mentioned that when a prospect makes noise is important? Alex Condon’s noise faded throughout March Madness. Now this was, in part, due to an ankle injury he suffered against Maryland, but Alex did get outplayed by a few of his Florida teammates. Still, when you take a step back, Condon’s year was very impressive. For a big man, it’s important to do “big man things”. Condon posted an Offensive Rebounding Percentage of 12.5 and a Defensive Rebounding Percentage of 19.3. Aside from competing on the glass, Alex showed very good defensive footwork, blocking shots and showing sound closeout technique. On offense, Condon flourished in Florida’s NBA-esque style of play, working from the perimeter and elbows. Condon could stand to get stronger in order to hold up in a league growing in size and physicality. His jumper is growing, but still not of the utmost reliability. Having time to rest his ankle, Alex could definitely restore his stock that once sat in first round range.
Otega Oweh | Junior | Wing | Kentucky | 6’4” | 215 | 22
If you value athleticism, physicality, and defense, then you must be an Otega Oweh fan. Transferring in from Oklahoma, Otega continued to show off his defensive prowess. Under coach Mark Pope, Oweh had a Block Percentage of 2.1, and a Steal Percentage of 3.1. He is also a very strong rebounder. On offense, he recorded his second consecutive season shooting over 35% from deep. While his percentage dipped a little this year, he tripled his three pointers attempted off the bounce. Because he isn’t the biggest player in terms of height, there could be some projectability problems within the NBA. Listed at 6’4”, Oweh isn’t the strongest playmaker. His handle is fine, but nothing beyond that, and his processing for others isn’t at the requisite level to have the ball a ton in the league. He does draw a ton of contact and finishes above the rim better than some players who are significantly taller. There are some through-lines he shares with some of the better gadget players in the NBA, but that typically doesn’t result in going in the first round. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oweh play the long game—making a decision close to the buzzer to see if he can sneak his way into the First Round.
Miles Byrd | Junior | Wing | San Diego State | 6’7” | 190 | 20
You would be hard-pressed to find another player in this group who had the highs and lows Miles Byrd had this draft cycle. Miles started the season off with a bang, looking very much the part of the mid-major darling among his peers. In his first 15 games of the year, Byrd shot almost 39% from deep on 6.2 attempts per game. His last 15? He shot just over 20% from deep on 5.5 attempts per game. That’s ultimately the swing skill with Miles, as he showed a ton of promise on defense. He was one of only 26 players in college basketball with a Steal and Block Percentage over 4. Within that group, he was the only one who made more than 10 three-pointers (he made more than 50). Aside from that, Byrd converted seven dunks in the halfcourt and showed some solid improvements as a decision-maker. His wishy-washy shooting this season wasn’t great, but he also ranked just in the 41st Percentile at the rim. Being slight of frame, NBA teams would really have to value his very stout defense to take him this season. It’s clear he is an athlete, but the consistency has to get there.
RJ Luis Jr. | Junior | Wing/Forward | St. John’s | 6’7” | 215 | 22
I’m not going to mince words here: The end of the season for RJ Luis may have been the most difficult to watch—not because he was hurt, but because his coach benched him during March Madness as St. John’s was eliminated. That resulted in RJ entering the transfer portal while testing the draft waters. Still, Luis had a strong season. The reigning Big East Player of the Year showed a solid knack for scoring, registering over 18 PPG under coach Rick Pitino. Luis’s offense is old-school—operating and scoring in the mid-range. He was in the 84th percentile in players taking their shots from mid-range, and in the 52nd percentile actually scoring from there. RJ can poke and prod his way to the rim, as indicated by him logging 13 halfcourt dunks, and him ranking in the 60th percentile in players taking their shots at the rim. Defensively, RJ showed a lot of promise defending multiple positions. Where RJ could stand to get better is growing as a playmaker and shooting from deep. For a player of his usage, (27.6), he only had an Assist Percentage of 12.3. He also only shot 33.6% from deep, and only 34.7% on unguarded catch and shoot looks from range. RJ could stay in the draft, but I think his range is mid-to-late second round. While that’s still very much within draftable range, I could see him taking another year in college to improve on what should be a higher salary.
Darrion Williams | Junior | Forward | Texas Tech | 6’6” | 225 | 22
With JT Toppin transferring to Texas Tech, Darrion Williams had a great opportunity to improve as a player and a draft prospect. With Toppin getting plenty of paint touches, Williams did a good job of operating as an amplifier for the betterment of his teammates. Darrion had an ATO of 1.9, while recording an Offensive Rebound Percentage of 6.3 and a Defensive Rebounding Percentage of 14.8. Defensively, Darrion shows some versatility—guarding spot-ups and post-ups as his top two play types he defended. While Williams showed some solid strength, he only had two dunks on the year, indicative of his good-but-not-great athleticism. Like RJ Luis Jr., Williams hasn’t been a deadeye from deep, shooting just 34% from deep. That percentage was on a career best 8.3 threes per 100 possessions, showing a real effort to become an outside threat. With the way this class has shaped up, Williams is likely draftable—but is it worth giving up a college bag and an opportunity to improve? We’ll have to wait and see how his combine goes to have a better feel.
Jamir Watkins | Senior (R.S.) | Wing/Forward | Florida State | 6’6” | 212 | 24
Has there been a quieter prospect having a better season than Jamir Watkins? The obvious knock against him is going to be the three-point percentage, which was just a hair over 32%. In the two prior seasons, Watkins was just around 34%. While the jumper wasn’t there, pretty much everything else was. Jamir was able to rank in the 58th Percentile at the rim, with a Free Throw Rate of 59. Processing-wise, he was serviceable but nothing to write home about. Jamir showed his strength on the boards and on defense. He logged a Steal and Block Percentage over 2, and a Defensive Rebounding Percentage of 16.9. For a player of his dimensions and role, the shot is really the thing holding him back from being a clear-cut draftable player. His connectivity and defense will go a long way for him, but a strong combine will be the difference maker. Like Darrion Williams, Jamir may opt to go back to school if he is a late second round player.
Milos Uzan | Junior | Guard | Houston | 6’4” | 190 | 22
Coming in on the heels of a fantastic year, Milos Uzan appears to have broken through the glass ceiling he’s had over the past couple of seasons. After being a key cog in Houston’s machine, Milos showed a huge leap in areas such as three-point percentage (+13.2%), A:TO (+0.9), and at-rim finishing (+6.0%). Milos has long shown the ability to do some creation on the ball, but leapt from the 19th Percentile in catch-and-shoot looks to the 97th Percentile under coach Kelvin Sampson. This growth as a floor-spacing threat really paves out a clear path as an NBA role player. His frame is one that can be easier on the eyes compared to some other smaller guards; teams will be more comfortable with his measurables. Uzan’s rebounding and defensive metrics project decently for his position. Now that he has shown a propensity to hit deep shots, Uzan could see himself go almost anywhere in the second round. Given that he has been invited to the NBA Draft Combine, Milos is almost playing with house money. If he feels ready for the league, there is a path. If he wants to get another NIL bag and develop further, that could be huge in improving his stock.
Tier Three: Could Be Drafted; Likely Called Immediately After The Draft
Players: Isaiah Evans, Chad Baker-Mazara, Joson Sanon, John Blackwell, Jaland Lowe, Nate Bittle, PJ Haggerty, Bruce Thornton
Isaiah Evans | Freshman | Wing | Duke | 6’6” | 180 | 19
I really considered Isaiah Evans in the tier above, but I’m not so certain NBA teams would go with him despite being a Freshman. There is also a part of me that thinks he wouldn’t go as a second rounder, which is why he is simply testing the predraft process. Playing on a team with four guys who are likely going to be drafted, Evans carved out a role as a reliable floor spacer. Isaiah shot over 41% from deep on an insane 18.1 attempts per 100 possessions. Outside of that, Evans couldn’t/didn’t really do much else. His rebounding and defensive playmaking were both subpar. He was in the 55th Percentile in at-rim scoring, but was just in the 4th Percentile in players taking shots at the rim. His playmaking was very limited due to role, but his Assist Percentage was just 6.4. It’s easy to fall in love with the potential of a player like Evans. He will need to get stronger, like the majority of freshmen. I am a fan of him going to the combine to test and show what he can do outside of a crowded Duke roster. Evans could be the type of player that could, worst case, be a top returning name in next year’s draft.
Chad Baker-Mazara | Senior (R.S.) | Wing | Auburn | 6’7” | 190 | 25
The elder statesman of the players testing the waters, Chad Baker-Mazara (CBM), hilariously, could play another season of college ball for USC. Chad played a pivotal role for the Tigers this season, scoring over 12 PPG and starting 34 of the 38 games he played. As has been the case his entire college career, CBM was a phenomenal shooter. Baker-Mazara was over 38% from deep on 9.2 attempts per 100 possessions. Chad also showed some connective ability that could give some comfort in his ability to make the right play. What won’t show on the stat sheet is his erratic nature. Baker-Mazara is a very demonstrative player, known to get into some extracurricular activities on the court. That fire fueled a ton of production. Despite being slimmer than some may like, CBM had a Steal and Block Percentage of at least 2.5, and his rebounding was solid as well. Those improvements may just come with a deep understanding of collegiate gameplay and officiating, but the production is clearly there. Chad has plenty on both sides he can offer a team, but physicality and temperament could impact his stock.
Joson Sanon | Freshman | Wing | Arizona State | 6’4” | 194 | 19
Joson Sanon came into the season ranked 23rd in the RSCI Top 100. His season did not go according to that ranking, which led to him transferring to St. John’s as a measure to help build his stock for next year—should he return. The one things that went well for Sanon was him being a very good shooter. Joson shot almost 37% from deep on 9.1 attempts per 100. He ranked in the 87th percentile in open jumpers off the catch, and in the 82nd percentile in shots off the bounce. The rest of his game needs some work. His size seemed to hamper his game with ASU, as he ranked under the 10th Percentile in both percentage of shots taken at the rim and finishing at the rim. His rebounding numbers were slightly below average. His defensive playmaking was poor. He also struggled to set up others. At his size, teams need to know they’re getting either an elite shooter, super-connector, or a defensive ace. The shot is really the only aspect of his game that seems like it could translate as of now. Still, Sanon is very young and has that shot working for him. I would bet on him returning to play for coach Rick Pitino and developing his body and game a bit more.
John Blackwell | Sophomore | Guard/Wing | Wisconsin | 6’4” | 203 | 20
John Blackwell is the name where we really start getting into the fun range! What makes John an appealing player is his tremendous athleticism, strength, and defensive effort. In a small role last year as a freshman, John shot over 45% on 6.4 threes per 100. This year, that percentage fell to under 33%. Contextualizing that number, Blackwell shot only 11 threes off the bounce in his first season. That number exploded to 57 this season! He still hit his open threes (37.1%; 63rd percentile). Similar to Joson Sanon, Blackwell isn’t the ideal size for an off-guard. He is a sound decision-maker, but not a primary creator. He is fine getting to the rim and finishing, but not elite. His defense has been solid this year, but not otherworldly. John is pretty good in a number of areas—including rebounding and drawing contact—but seems to lack a foundational, NBA skill. Still, the NBA loves toughness and athleticism, and that is what makes Blackwell an intriguing name to watch as a potential “this year” guy.
Jaland Lowe | Sophomore | Guard | Pittsburgh | 6’3” | 175 | 20
Jaland Lowe had some believers in him this season, and he came into the year ranked 65th in the $DRFT IPO. Lowe had a decent season overall. The thing that he leans on being an organizer on offense. On a Usage Percentage just under 30, Lowe had an Assist Percentage of 31.1 and ranked in the 58th percentile in scoring in pick-and-roll sets. On defense, Jaland was impactful in creating havoc in passing lanes and swiping the ball from his man. Lowe recorded almost as many steals (54) as the number of fouls he committed (65). What he struggled with was his shooting. Jaland was in the 22nd percentile on his threes and in the 14th percentile in the midrange. For a player of his height, shooting will be something that Lowe has to improve on, and most NBA prospects do improve over time. The question that comes is: Will an NBA team be patient enough to wait for that to develop? Also, is his size/strength enough for him to find minutes? Time will tell, but the combine will help provide answers.
Nate Bittle | Senior | Big | Oregon | 7” | 240 | 22
Is Nate Bittle a prospect that the draft community is overlooking as an NBA talent? Bittle was a Top 20 RSCI player in the 2021 class, and he is coming off his best year as a collegiate athlete. Scoring over 51% from the floor on over 10 attempts per game, Bittle does a lot of “big man things” well. Rebounding? He’s solid on the offensive glass, and very good on the defensive side. Blocking shots? He had an 8.3 Block Percentage—averaging over 2 BPG. Nate ranked in the 65th percentile at the rim, and he had 22 dunks in the halfcourt. He’s also shot over 33% from deep over his past three seasons at Oregon. Nate isn’t the strongest or most fleet-footed big in this class, but he is solid in both of those areas, and he is consistent. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wound up on an NBA team at some point. If he isn’t going to get drafted this year, though, I could see him returning to college and earning a bigger bag, and also developing more.
PJ Haggerty | Sophomore (R.S.) | Guard | Memphis | 6’3” | 191 | 21
For the second season in a row—and on two separate teams—PJ Haggerty has averaged over 21 PPG. Though considered a smaller guard, PJ has shown the ability to score in a variety of ways. Ranked inside the Top 70 of a few reputable outlets, Haggerty really grew as a shooter, ranking in the 77th Percentile on catch and shoot opportunities, and hitting over 42% of his open looks. That paired nicely with PJ’s ability to convert at the bucket and hit the occasional middy. A player who draws a lot of contact, Haggerty got to the free throw line often—averaging 7.8 free throw attempts per game. PJ was also a pesky defender, ripping the ball from his man, shooting gaps in passing lanes, and taking away breathing room. PJ hasn’t shown elite vision on the ball, but the argument could be made that his teams relied on his scoring. Again, with a player of his size, can he overcome the normal “small guard” knocks on defense and physicality? He’ll have time to improve in those areas over time. I’m interested to see how he performs in the combine, and to see if he plays the long game with potential returners.
Bruce Thornton | Junior | Guard | Ohio State | 6’2” | 215 | 21
Bruce Thornton is of the “your favorite point guard’s favorite point guard” variety. Built very well for the NBA game, Bruce is not shy at all mixing it up in the paint, ranking in the 97th percentile in shots inside 17 feet and posting a Free-Throw Rate over 41. Thornton is the consummate floor general—organizing his teammates and passing them open. This year, Thornton had an A:TO of 3.1 on a Usage Percentage of just 22. His ability to sling the ball and avoid turnovers (Turnover Percentage of just 10.8) could be enough to land him on an NBA team. His defense and rebounding seem to be teetering on the successful thresholds on film and in the analytics. What has helped Thornton have a real shot is…his shot. Bruce connected on over 42% from outside on 7.0 threes per 100 possessions. Thornton is on the shorter side, but his frame and toughness make it a possibility for him to do something in the league at some point. Like the rest of this group, it’s going to come down to his desire to make the league over working on his game in college for, potentially, more money.
Update: How in the world did he not get invited to any of the combines??
Tier Four: Get The Feedback—Come Back And Dominate
Players: Nick Martinelli, MacKenzie Mgbako, Silas Demary Jr., Yanic Konan Niederhauser, Devon Pryor, Kobe Knox, Rueben Chinyelu, Jerry Deng, Money Williams, Josh Hubbard, Brenen Lorient, Jaden Bradley, Devin McGlockton, Tobi Lawal
Nick Martinelli | Junior | Forward | Northwestern | 6’7” | 220 | 21
Nick Martinelli is a funky player—and I love funk. Nick is good at several things, but not a master of any as of now. He shot just over 33% from deep and isn’t a prolific facilitator. Martinelli hustles a ton, which is endearing to his team and fans. This shows in his solid rebounding numbers, and his efficiency scoring off movement and post-ups. He would do well to test his skill in a combine/workout setting, get NBA feedback, and return to a strong Wildcat team to improve.
Mackenzie Mgbako | Sophomore | Forward | Indiana | 6’8” | 215 | 20
Coming in at 55 on the $DRFT Initial Player Offerings prior to the season, Mackenzie Mgbako was thought to be one of the better shooting prospects within this class. After a solid start, Mgbako shot under 33% from deep on 10.3 attempts per 100. Mackenzie has a strong frame, which helped him finish at the rim, but he only ranked in the 28th percentile in at-rim attempts. Mgbako has the tools to be a successful defender, but his effort and impact waxed and waned each game. Not only that, but his ability to be a connector wasn’t consistent, either. Still, Mackenzie is strong and has the tools to crash the boards, disrupt on defense, and has the ability to improve as a shooter. Should he withdraw, Mgbako has the chance to get much better at Texas A&M—the school he transferred to in the portal.
Silas Demary Jr. | Sophomore | Guard | Georgia | 6’3” | 192 | 21
Silas Demary Jr. is one of those players where, when you see him move, you’d expect higher-end output. He was a very good shooter at Georgia this year, shooting over 37% from deep on 8.7 attempts per 100. He was also a solid defender, using his quickness, processing, and coordination to disrupt passing lanes and ball handlers. While Demary Jr. had that going for him, he hasn’t shown the requisite orchestrating skills necessary to be a lead guard, nor is he a crazy athlete to project as a gadget-y off-ball player at the next level. Transferring to UConn in conjunction with testing the waters is a smart play, as coach Dan Hurley could put him in position to succeed.
Yanic Konan Niederhauser | Junior | Big | Penn State | 7” | 250 | 22
Being tilted to one side of the floor now, Yanic Konan Niederhauser is the one player (I feel) in this tier that could come back to bite me. He has great size. He registered a 10.2 Block Percentage. He logged an Offensive Rebound Percentage of 10.1, and a Defensive Rebound Percentage of 19.9. He moves well. He’s just so raw on offense. That’s actually kind of a good thing, considering he averaged over 12 PPG. I like the idea of him getting feedback, and roughing up players who are likely to be drafted. Again, I wouldn’t be surprised if he outperformed this tier in the G League Combine.
Devon Pryor | Sophomore | Wing | Texas | 6’7” | 185 | 20
Devon Pryor is an interesting and intriguing proposition as a “water tester” prospect. If you’re looking for production, you won’t find much from Devon. This season, he only averaged 12 MPG. There are flashes, though. Pryor is a solid athlete who competes on the glass and on defense. You could see that he wanted to show off some offensive skill, but Texas was a mess. I like the move to Oregon in the portal for him, and I like the idea of him showing more in a combine setting than he got to show with the Longhorns. Keep in mind, Pryor finished in the 97th percentile at the rim, and got there often (67th percentile in at-rim attempts) in limited minutes. This could certainly be an “allow me to introduce myself” moment.
Kobe Knox | Junior (R.S.) | Guard/Wing | USF | 6’5” | 195 | 22
Kobe Knox still has plenty of potential as a 22-year-old transferring to South Carolina. He is a bit of a “score first, pass to teammates later”. Even though he is more of a scorer, he does take great care of the ball. His passes are more of the “next man over” variety—not able to bend the defense. At USF, Kobe was in a connector role, having a Usage Percentage of just 17.1. Knox has good athleticism for his size, and is able to rise above defenders. This past year, he had 22 dunks—eight coming in the halfcourt. That athleticism shows more on defense, where he 46 stocks (steals+blocks) to 53 fouls committed. He hasn’t replicated the shooting season he had as a Freshman at Grand Canyon, where he shot 41% from deep. That number was just over 33% this year. Kobe will need to refine a few areas of his game, but there is talent there.
Rueben Chinyelu | Sophomore | Big | Florida | 6’11” | 255 | 21
You may remember Rueben Chinyelu from Florida’s run in March Madness—one of a few players who made up Florida’s frontcourt. While there hasn’t been much discussion on Chinyelu as a this-year guy, there are some things to like about him as a pro. In just 19MPG, Rueben was about 60% on the floor, ranking in the 85th percentile in scoring at the rim. He had 27 dunks in total, with 17 coming in the halfcourt. Outside of the paint, Chinyelu doesn’t offer a ton of touch. His decision-making is a little underwhelming, having an A:TO of just 0.7 in a system that facilitates looks from bigs to perimeter players. He is nasty on the glass, and he has some rim protection. Chinyelu has plenty of time to improve, and I like the thought of him getting feedback and improving with another year under coach Todd Golden.
Jerry Deng | Sophomore | Forward | Florida State | 6’8” | 220 | 20
Florida State had a tumultuous season, which resulted in Leonard Hamilton resigning at the end of it. Jerry Deng had an interesting year despite the chaos. For a player of his size, hitting 37% of his threes on 14.2 attempts per 100 possessions is an attention-getter. Deng was in the 86th percentile on jump shots, and in the 82nd percentile in the number of shots made being jump shots. His defense was okay, but still plenty of room to grow there. There wasn’t much ball movement coming from him, nor aggressiveness in attacking the basket. Already committed to North Carolina State should he return, Jerry has a chance to get precious advice from NBA officials and build upon a solid foundation.
Money Williams | Sophomore | Guard | Montana | 6’4” | 200 | 19
Not much has come from the Money Williams corner of the draft world this season, but there are some interesting aspects to his game. Money has a good handle and can get to his spots well enough. His change-of-pace dribble allows him to snake his way inside the lane. Williams has a tendency to make difficult passes, but still had an Assist Percentage of 22. He isn’t afraid of contact, but is still impacted by it. His shot is decent, but he hasn’t gotten his threes to go in a ton despite launching 10.4 per 100 possessions. His toughness and shiftiness are more visible on defense, where he can get up into his man. He can, however, get lost on more dynamic offensive sets and designs. Money has a chance to measure himself against better competition and get measurable goals from NBA execs, which I think will be huge for his development.
Josh Hubbard | Sophomore | Guard | Mississippi State | 5’11” | 180 | 20
One of the players that will be heavily dissected due to his frame, Josh Hubbard had a good freshman year, but didn’t show the type of growth some hoped for this season. His Assist Percentage (18.2) isn’t the highest, but he did register an A:TO of 2.5, which speaks to the good decision-making you see on film. His rebounding wasn’t great—even for a smaller guard. He didn’t get to the rim a ton (14th percentile of shots taken at the rim), nor did he convert his shots at the rim often enough (30th percentile scoring at the rim). For a player of his size, he’ll need to connect on his threes more (34.5%), but he did take 16.0 per 100 possessions. Despite his flaws, there is something to be said about a guard who can organize an offense and make the right play. Josh can test his skills against a good crop of players this year and set himself up for a strong Junior year.
Brenen Lorient | Junior | Forward/Big | North Texas | 6’9” | 215 | 21
Listed as a forward, Brenen Lorient spent a good amount of time at the “Five” for North Texas—which tilts the evaluation a bit. Lorient shot around 50% from deep, but on low volume (1.7 threes per 100). The shot is a bit funky—possessing some unnecessary moving parts up top—but he also hits his free throws decently well, and he ranked in the 89th Percentile in the mid range. His handle isn’t developed enough to trust him operating out in space. On defense, Brenan can be a disruptor. He had a strong Steal Percentage (2.3) and a solid Block Percentage (5.9). Playing for a smaller major school, I like Lorient’s decision to play at West Virginia next season—should he withdraw from the draft after the combine.
Jaden Bradley | Junior | Guard | Arizona | 6’3” | 185 | 21
Jaden Bradley has been on NBA radars after a promising freshman season at Arizona. After a lateral year under coach Tommy Lloyd, Bradley became a full-time starter this past year. Bradley’s defense has maintained its potency, as his Steal Percentage was just under 3.0—a career best. Jaden’s decision-making also took a step in the right direction, registering an ATO of 2.0. Jaden has never been afraid of contact, but he hasn’t always been able to finish through it. His at-rim finishing ranked in the 53rd Percentile—another career best. Despite these improvements, Bradley still isn’t handling the ball a ton—nor is he showing the outside shooting, rebounding, or positional versatility we all hoped he would. Testing the waters makes some sense, but I feel like Bradley would really benefit from a stronger offensive role and an increase in either strength or efficiency.
Devin McGlockton | Junior (R.S.) | Forward | Vanderbilt | 6’7” | 230 | 22
Devin McGlockton, another member of the “funky bunch” for me in this group, did a lot of good things for a surprising Vanderbilt squad this season. Devin spent a bunch of time doing tough work in the paint, ranking in the 76th percentile at shots at the rim, and in the 91st percentile in scoring at the rim. His rebounding was ridiculous, gobbling up boards with his crazy reach and good bounce. Those same traits helped him defensively too, McGlockton registered a Block Percentage of 5.0 and a Steal Percentage of 1.7. While he had some exciting moments, Devin did foul a lot—61 stocks to 99 fouls committed. His shooting from deep has also tailed off each year, with a consistent uptick in volume. He is also exclusively a finisher, not a connector right now. McGlockton is likely to impress on defense in a combine setting, and I would love to see him make a concerted effort to grow either as a shooter or decision maker in one more collegiate season.
Tobi Lawal | Junior | Forward | Virginia Tech | 6’8” | 200 | 22
Wrapping up this tier is the intriguing Tobi Lawal. In his first year as a full-time starter, Lawal put up 12 PPG and 7 RPG with the Hokies. A great bit of Tobi’s time on offense was spent as a spot-up shooter—he spent twice as much time spotting up as he did anything else on offense. He was efficient in doing so, ranking in the 69th (nice) Percentile, while shooting over 41% from deep. Aside from shooting, Lawal converted a good bit of his shots at the rim, ranking in the 91st Percentile there. He was also able to get there a good bit too. Where he struggles is with his handling and connectivity. He had a monster year on the glass, with an Offensive Rebound Percentage of 10.8 and a Defensive Rebound Percentage of 22.0. He had moments on defense where he looked fine, but Tobi would get lost on more creative looks (probably due to adjusting to a new role). Like McGlockton earlier, I think Lawal could boost his stock in the combine and put together a good season at Virginia Tech.
Tier Five: Let Sit
Players: Jaron Pierre Jr., Melvin Council Jr., Treysen Eaglestaff, Elijah Fisher, Camron McDowell, Tae Davis, Tayton Conerway, Dominick Harris, Brandon Walker, Chris Howell, Raysean Seamster, Quincy Ballard, Kebba Njie, Omar Rowe, AK Okereke
Jaron Pierre Jr. | Senior (R.S.) | Guard/Wing | Jacksonville State | 6’6” | 208 | 23
Jaron Pierre Jr. experienced his best year in college last year. The question comes: is it skill or just being older in a low-major college? A 38% shooter last season, Pierre Jr. had one of the highest Usage Percentage in college at 30.6. He also showed more courage in throwing more difficult passes, and had a decent A:TO at 1.3. He doesn’t finish the best inside, nor is he a strong defender. He’s in the portal also, and I would expect him to transfer up to prove himself.
Melvin Council Jr. | Junior | Guard | St. Bonaventure | 6’4” | 180 | 23
If there has been one trait a player has to have when playing for St. Bonaventure, it’s defensive excellence. That is where Melvin Council Jr. thrives. Melvin had 85 stocks on the year, against just 55 fouls committed. His quick hands and tough nature are where the appeal lies. On offense, Council Jr. has really grown in his facilitation. His strength and athleticism allowed him to finish at the rim, but he has a ways to go as a shooter (29.9% on 6.5 threes per 100 possessions). Melvin has traits, but he still needs some more polish.
Treysen Eaglestaff | Junior | Guard/Wing | North Dakota | 6’6” | 190 | 21
Treysen Eaglestaff didn’t quite have buzz this year, but there was some humming. Treysen has been a career 37.1% shooter from deep, and he is taking more shots off the bounce to expand his game. The problems come in his game due to his small frame. He isn’t very active on rebounds. He fouls more on defense than he makes the right play. He struggles with contact holistically, though he has made improvements. Eaglestaff also isn’t a strong playmaker for a high-usage guy. His decision to transfer to West Virginia makes sense to get stronger and play against higher levels of competition.
Elijah Fisher | Junior | Forward | Pacific | 6’7” | 210 | 21
Another funky prospect here is Elijah Fisher. His frame suggests a more flashy game, but Elijah is a grinder. He has a tendency to operate in the mid-post and inside. He ranked in the 70th percentile in shots at the rim, but only scored in the 47th percentile on such shots. He’s not really strong enough to make a living on that shot diet. He only made 32 of 102 jumpers on the year, which isn’t ideal for his position. Fisher is a decent rebounder, but not overwhelming. His defense is passable at best. Elijah really needs to build upon his propensity to operate in the paint with more efficiency, but also needs to rework his jumper.
Camron McDowell | Junior (R.S.) | Guard/Wing | NW Oklahoma State | 6’6” | 185 | 22
Here is an interesting player! After stints at the University of Georgia and Jacksonville State, Camron McDowell has emerged as a tantalizing future bet. Playing at Northwest Oklahoma State this past season, Camron averaged over 27 PPG and shot 39% from deep. A lefty, McDowell has shown a polished approach in his scoring, ranking in the 91st percentile as a pick-and-roll operator, in the 92nd percentile on spot-ups, and in the 92nd percentile on handoffs. Defensively, Camron did well in Division II, so he’ll draw a lot of interest in a workout setting. Worst case, he will make himself more marketable in the transfer portal. A serious name to monitor.
Tae Davis | Junior | Forward | Notre Dame | 6’9” | 215 | 21
Tae Davis showed some real flashes at Notre Dame this past season. The Irish used him in motion looks to allow Davis to get shots at the rim, but he was just in the 35th Percentile scoring in the paint. Tae operated inside and outside, but shot just over 30% on low volume. His handle and ability to get into some tough shots allowed him to draw fouls at a solid rate or 56.1. Tae didn’t do much on the defensive side that would get anyone overly excited, and he was just okay on the boards. Davis is moving to Oklahoma, should he return, and he might be able to flourish in the Jalon Moore role if he can add some touch.
Tayton Conerway | Senior (R.S.) | Guard | Troy | 6’3” | 186 | 23
One of the most risk/reward passers in college basketball, Tayton Conerway posted an Assist Percentage of 36.7. That ranked 18th among players with a Minutes Percentage of at least 50. He also had a Turnover Percentage of 20. Beyond his playmaking, Conerway couldn’t shoot—and hasn’t been able to in his two seasons with Troy. He is a very pesky defender, playing up into his man, closing off driving lanes and forcing difficult passes. He is doing other connective things, in terms of rebounding and converting inside the arc. Tayton has committed to Indiana in the portal, which should give him the ability to grow as a shooter and sharpen his playmaking under new coach Darian DeVries.
Dominick Harris | Senior (R.S.) | Guard | Troy | 6’3” | 188 | 23
Last season was a tough one for Dominick Harris. He only played in 11 games with only 7.4 MPG, and he probably wants to remind people why there was some excitement about him transferring to UCLA. Harris has dealt with injuries before, but he simply just didn’t play for coach Mick Cronin after this past January. UCLA has been a place where highly ranked recruits and transfers aren’t guaranteed to play, so I get why Dominick wants to show off how he shot 44.7% from deep on 12.8 attempts per 100 possessions last year at Loyola Marymount. Even in that season, though, Dominick struggled to do anything outside of shooting. Time is running out for his college career, so I can support this move to test, then come and build on feedback.
Brandon Walker | Junior | Forward/Big | Montana State | 6’7” | 250 | 20
Get the feedback when you can. Brandon Walker still has plenty of college basketball ahead of him, so getting specific areas to improve makes some sense. Walker plays like the classic collegiate, undersized big, with a modern twist. On just 4.3 attempts per 100, Brandon connected on almost 40% of his threes. The shot looks okay, but he needs space to get it off. He’s grown into a pretty solid passer from the frontcourt, too. He is able to close out possession on the defensive boards, but he struggles to make much more of a defensive impact beyond that. Walker needs to cut up a bit and increase his athleticism in any way he can for a realistic shot at the NBA.
Chris Howell | Junior (R.S.) | Guard/Wing | UCSD | 6’6” | 195 | 22
Even if you aren’t a “Draft Sicko” exactly, you may have saw Chris Howell play against Michigan—which was, in a lot of ways, a good encapsulation of the Chris Howell experience. Chris can do several things on the court well, but defense is really the only thing he does well. He recorded a Steal Percentage of 4.3 and a 1.1 Block Percentage. His decision-making has been fine (2.7 ATO), but on very low usage (12.5). Small roles have been the real hang-up with Howell establishing himself on draft radars, but a strong performance in team workouts and a good outing with his new team, New Mexico, could do wonders for him.
Raysean Seamster | Junior | Wing/Forward | UT Arlington | 6’8” | 200 | 21
In his first year of Division I basketball, Raysean Seamster put up 11.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG, and 1.2 APG. Seamster showed a lot of defensive versatility, utilizing his length and footwork to wreak havoc as a shot blocker and in swiping the ball away. Raysean is very comfortable banging his way to the rim and finishing with contact. There isn’t much there as a shooter or connector, however. With a lack of touch or meaningful feel, this could serve as a bit of an introduction period for Raysean, who still needs significant developmental time.
Quincy Ballard | Senior (5th Year) | Big | Wichita State | 6’11” | 251 | 23
Quincy Ballard is actually a fairly decent big man prospect in the sense that he only does the “big man things” well. This past season, Ballard had an Offensive Rebound Percentage of 11.8 and a Defensive Rebound Percentage of 23.3. His shot blocking was good—not great—recording a Block Percentage of 7.3. His hands can betray him at times, but he does show some lob-threat ability. He isn’t a great connective big, which hurts him as the NBA relies on bigs to have the offense flow through them. There’s also no shooting touch. Testing can be a “Hail Mary” sometimes, which is why I can respect this move for Quincy.
Kebba Njie | Junior | Big | Notre Dame | 6’10” | 254 | 20
Kebba Njie is an interesting developmental big man. The flaws are apparent: he isn’t very strong on defense. He is not a player the offense can flow through. However, he does rebound well. He finishes around the basket. Also, on low volume, he turned into a 36.8% shooter from deep. There is a lot of work to do for Kebba—including getting stronger—but he does some interesting things that could flesh out into consistent productivity and versatility on both ends.
Omar Rowe | Senior (R.S.) | Wing | Morehouse | 6’6” | 185 | 24
Omar Rowe might be the mystery man in this group of players. Playing for Morehouse College—a Division II school—Rowe only averaged just over 8 PPG. Omar showed to be a very good shooter, hitting over 40% on catch and shoot looks—over 46% when left open. Beyond shooting, Rowe isn’t the best playmaker, rebounder, or defender. Still, Rowe showed flashes of finishing on limited looks and some good athleticism. With more questions than answers to his game, this could be an audition for a number of places for Rowe.
AK Okereke | Junior | Forward | Cornell | 6’7” | 241 | 22
AK Okereke wraps up this piece and is the last funky player. AK plays outside the lane on offense, and his connective playmaking is leaned on a ton. Okereke ranked in the 99th percentile in total offense including assists this year, and his film shows great touch on his passes and slick eye manipulation. He is efficient in the paint as well. On defense, AK shows strength, length, and anticipation to force turnovers at a good clip. Not much of a shooter, Okereke has some likable qualities to his game, but his translation to the pros is shaky. I think he may be one of the players I’m most excited about coming back and getting better next season at Vanderbilt—his new home, thanks to the portal.
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