Cody Williams: Joe Burrow or Zach Wilson?
NBA teams grab wing prospects in the lottery like they're high-end quarterback prospects. Garbage Time Ghim thinks Cody Williams will be another wing prospect to go in the lottery.
If the title of the piece pulled you in, don’t freak out. I’m not going to compare Cody Williams to either quarterback. I don’t see Cody as an NFL quarterback, and I don’t think he’ll ever be running a team offensively as a number one option. The point that I need to make before we get into Cody’s game is that I think NBA teams look at wing prospects like NFL teams view quarterback prospects.
In almost every NFL draft, you’re going to see quarterbacks at the top of the draft, and usually, multiple will get taken before the end of the first round. Just looking at this upcoming class, people are expecting the Top 5 of the draft to be mostly quarterbacks. There are even some experts who believe the first four picks of the draft could be quarterbacks. Some order of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy could all hear their names called by one of the top 5 teams making their picks.
As enticing as those names sound, if history has taught us anything, it’s very likely that half of those names will fail and bust. This isn’t a harsh criticism of their games; it’s more of a reflection of what we’ve seen from quarterbacks taken at the top of drafts. In the last five years, we’ve seen some incredible quarterbacks taken in the first round, including guys like Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, CJ Stroud, and Kyler Murray. On the other end of the spectrum, we’ve also seen guys like Zack Wilson, Daniel Jones, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett, and Sam Darnold flame out. Of course, the structures of the two drafts are different, with the NBA draft having a lottery system, but it’s important to note the correlation between quarterbacks and wings.
Just in the last four draft classes, look at the list of wings taken in the lottery I’ve listed below:
2020: Anthony Edwards, Lamelo Ball, Patrick Williams, Isaac Okoro, Deni Avdija, Devin Vassell, Aaron Nesmith. Seven were taken in the lottery.
2021: Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, Scottie Barnes, Josh Giddey, Jonathan Kuminga, Franz Wagner, Ziaire Williams, Chris Duarte, Moses Moody. Nine were taken in the lottery.
2022: Keegan Murray, Bennedict Mathurin, Shaedon Sharpe, Dyson Daniels, Jeremy Sochan, Ousmane Dieng, Jalen Williams, Ochai Agbaji. Eight were taken in the lottery.
2023: Brandon Miller, Amen Thomspson, Ausar Thompson, Anthony Black, Bilal Coulibaly, Jett Howard, Gradey Dick. Seven were taken in the lottery.
If you take a look at this list, you can understand why teams are taking shots on wings in the lottery. At the same time, you can see that taking a toolsy wing with a lottery pick can also be a huge risk. I’m sure the Memphis Grizzlies wish they could get a mulligan on the Ziaire Williams pick they made in 2021, or the Cavs may have gone in a different direction in 2020 instead of Isaac Okoro. Shouts to Okoro, though; he’s played well this season. The point is that NBA teams love wings that can do stuff with the ball. Even if they’re not great at doing things with the ball in college, teams will continue to bet on them to figure it out one day and are unafraid of using a lottery pick to find out.
This is where Cody Williams enters the conversation. In a class where there really is no consensus at the top of the class, the trend will not end here. Teams will continue to place huge bets on wings in the lottery, and Cody Williams may be the best bet. My intention is not to say that Cody Williams is Cade Cunningham, Anthony Edwards, or Brandon Miller. I’m also not saying that he will be Patrick Williams, Chris Duarte, or Devin Vassell. I think he might be in-between, and in a class where people can’t figure out who to put at the top of their boards, I’m making the point that Cody has enough in his game to warrant being in the conversation at the top.
Corey Tulaba and I were at the 2021 NBA Draft in person. It was actually the first time we had ever met live and not on a webcam. As incredible as it was to finally meet my podcasting partner, being in the building for some of the picks made was equally as amazing. I remember hearing the shock in the building when the Thunder took Josh Giddey with the sixth overall pick. There were definitely some whispers before the draft that the Thunder were interested, but it was still shocking when it happened. As shocked as we were with that pick, it was nothing compared to the disbelief we felt when the Grizzlies took Ziaire Williams with the tenth pick. Looking back at how loaded that class was with high-end NBA talent, it’s still incredible to think back to those picks.
As shocking as that experience was for us to experience, the truth of the matter is we were the fools. This is the way of the NBA. As I showed with the list of players taken in the last four draft classes, wings are going at a wild rate in premium picks, and there’s no reason to believe that that’s going to change. So here’s the question: With the freshman season that Cody Williams just had, why is he going to go to the lottery?
Offensive tools:
When you look at the baseline shooting splits, nothing there will alarm you. In his one season at Colorado, he shot 55.2/41.5/71.4; not bad! But it's not as nice when you start to look at the context of those numbers. Let’s start with the jumper from outside. If you take the 41.5% from three at face value, that sounds pretty damn good. Is there a bigger accomplishment in sports than shooting over 40% from three? It’s incredible to think about how differently we view shooters that shoot above 40%. Now, as nice as that sounds, we have to look at the volume. During the season, Williams averaged 0.7 makes per 1.7 attempts per game. That’s not insane volume.
If you look at the totals, it comes out to 41 three-point attempts all season, and he only made 17 of them. When you look at the raw totals and per-game numbers, those numbers highlight the context behind the 41.5%. Just as a comparison, the volume is different if you look at the three-point shooting numbers for guys like Jared McCain and Kyshawn George, who also had great shooting years as freshmen. McCain, like Cody, shot it at 41.5% from three on the season, but he took 195 of them and made 81. Kyshawn shot it at 40.8% from the outside but took 130 of them and made 53.
These numbers aren’t being presented to you to make the claim that he’s not a good shooter. It’s not as if there’s a guarantee that if he took 100 more threes, he’d be shooting in the low 30s. The truth of the matter is he’s probably somewhere in the middle.
As we get deeper into Cody’s offensive game, it’s important to note that the volume is so low in many areas of his game because of the injuries he dealt with and the limited number of games he played. Cody only played 24 games on the season, and of those games, he started 18 of them. Cody dealt with a myriad of injuries throughout the season. He had an orbital fracture, a wrist injury, and an ankle injury before the Pac-12 tournament.
It doesn’t matter who you are; those are tough injuries to come back from, and to his credit, he did come back from all of them and was able to close out the season in the NCAA tournament with his team. If you turn on the tape, you’ll also notice how the injuries messed with his game. Something I’ve seen a lot of online is the discourse around him not being aggressive enough as a player. Although he definitely doesn’t come off as an alpha, even in person, I think the injuries had an effect on some of that as well. With the type of injuries he had, it’s not hard to see why he may have been hesitant at times to be as aggressive as he could be.
But let’s get into what he did on the floor. I think the first thing that needs to be noted is his touch. The main reason why I believe in Williams as a shooter is his touch. Mechanically, when it comes to his jump shot, there are some things that I think he needs to work out; the first and most glaring thing is his base. I think he’s just way too narrow most of the time. I also noticed that when he shoots off the catch, there’s a big dip in his shot that I think messes with him.
Where I’m encouraged, though, is at the top. I think things look clean there, and with some tweaks, he could become a good shooter. But going back to the touch, it’s really good. Watching him warm up before their game against UCLA in February, I was on the floor with them, and he was just making everything from the inside and outside. He has great touch on his floaters and hook shots, and even with some of his mechanical flaws on his outside jumper, he still makes a good chunk of them because of his touch.
If you watch the compilation below of some of his floaters and hook shots, you can see what I’m talking about. He does a great job of using his length, size, and anticipation to finish over guys. No one will be shocked when I say this, but Cody needs to bulk up. Although he’s already gained a good amount of mass in his one season at Colorado, he still has a way to go before he’s fully ready for the physicality of the NBA.
He’s very narrow as a person, as he’s super slim in his legs and hips, but the encouraging thing is that he has a good set of shoulders. From the time that I saw him in Portland for the Nike Hoop summit last year till now, he’s added a good amount of mass, and that alone makes me optimistic about how much more mass he can put on in the future. I don’t think he’ll ever be as jacked as his brother, but the genetics are there for him to be plenty strong.
Now, with the lack of strength, he isn’t always able to finish through guys. To his credit, he had a good number of tough drives to the lane where he embraced contact and finished through it, but he’s just not strong enough to do it all the time. For what he lacks in strength, he makes up for in touch with nice hook shots over smaller defenders and floaters over bigs. Another wrinkle to his finishing is his cutting ability.
Playing in an offense with guys like KJ Simpson, Eddie Lampkin Jr. and Tristan Da Silva means a lot of ball movement and connectivity on the floor. Pairing those guys with Cody Williams meant a ton of easy layups at the rim. Cody really did a great job of playing off of the main ball handlers for Colorado and showed selflessness to continue to put himself into motion, even if it didn’t lead to a direct opportunity for himself. Cody’s finishing numbers at the rim this season were awesome. He shot 73.6% at the rim this season, and 43.6% of those makes were assisted. Shouts to him for his cutting, but also credit to his teammates for finding him.
As I mentioned earlier, Cody did a great job exploiting mismatches when a small would get switched on to him or just straight-up assigned to him. The video above has a ton of examples of him taking down smaller defenders into the post or mid-post and finishing with touch on nice running hooks or mid-range push shots. Cody will struggle to do that against guys his size until he gains more strength, but it’s another area where he gets to show off his nice touch.
An area of growth for Cody is going to be his handle. The best way to describe his handle right now is to say it’s loose. When he’s dribbling in traffic, and he’s sped up, it almost feels like he’s reaching over and fighting to keep the ball in front of himself. One of his biggest weaknesses is when he goes to his spin move. There have been some nice highlights where he goes to the spin and takes it to the rim, but I don’t know if that move will be as effective for him on the next level with how loose his handle is whenever he makes that move.
I also think there’s a good amount of stiffness that he needs to work through to help him in that area. Adding more flexibility will make him look less awkward with the dribble. A tighter handle and added strength could help him create more separation.
When Cody gets a screen and can get going downhill, he looks great. With super long strides, going down a runway will always look good. Straight up in iso possessions, though, it’s hard for him to create a ton of space because of the lack of a tight handle and stiffness. You’ll see that the handle insecurity comes in many times against stronger perimeter defenders, and he’ll turn his back and start posting up.
I think Cody can become a strong ball-handler, but at this point in his development, he’s not ready to be a primary or even secondary ball-handler in an effective NBA offense. Pairing all of this with the fact that he had more turnovers than assists this season also kind of drives that point home. I think Cody has more passing juice and feel than he was able to show, but we’ll also have to see how that develops moving forward.
So, where is the intrigue if he’s not an elite passer and struggles to create for himself? The intrigue with Cody is in what he can do right now: his shooting upside, size upside, and activity off-ball. That list of abilities may not excite many people, but let's again put all of this in context. If Cody continues to bulk up, the outside shooting gets better, and he tightens up the handle, what does that look like? Could you talk yourself into Jaylen Brown? If I were an NBA front office executive, the ultimate pie-in-the-sky outcome I’d be hoping for if I took Cody in the top 10 would be Jaylen Brown.
Now, let’s be realistic here: it’s doubtful that Cody Williams will become Jaylen Brown, but you’re hoping for that type of player if you take him in the Top 5. Ultimately, when we look at his offensive outlook, you’re getting a 6’8” wing that can handle it a little bit, is awesome at finishing at the rim, and could potentially become a good shooter.
Let’s talk defense:
I have real concerns with Cody as a defender, but also I’m not freaking out because I think a lot of my concerns with him are fixable. Also, before I get into my critiques, it’s important to note a couple of things:
He has great wing size, length, and a frame upon which to build.
He tries hard, and he cares about defending.
He was hurt a lot.
I know a lot of this sounds familiar, but I want to be completely fair to Cody. I know we already talked about the injuries, but I had to mention them again because they impacted him on both ends.
I said he has great size and length, but the strength must come in. Watching the tape and seeing how he can just get moved at times will be a point of emphasis. One of the most interesting games to watch was when Colorado went up against USC in February. This was before his ankle injury, and it was exciting to see him matched up against guys like Isaiah Collier and Kobe Johnson. In the compilation I added below, you’ll see some good possessions where he’s using his length and size to make Collier’s life difficult, but then you’ll also see some possessions where Collier used his speed and strength to go by or through Cody. This is important to emphasize because you’ll see a lot of this in his film. You might find two or three not-so-nice possessions for every nice possession.
Some of the bigger warts on this side of the ball are rooted in his being pretty stiff. You see him standing upright on a lot of possessions; he doesn’t do the best job of sliding his feet or getting into a stance. Cody really struggles with his screen navigation, as he can just get blown up and trapped in some screens. I also think he needs to work on his close-out technique. There was a good chunk of close-outs where he took bad angles or came out flat, didn’t force a shooter to a side, and just got blown right by.
When he’s guarding guys in iso situations, he can be caught flat-footed a lot, and I think he lacks some instincts. When you watch some of the elite perimeter defenders, they’ll have moments or possessions where they’re reading their man and beating them to a spot. With Cody, it always feels like he’s reactive and not proactive. It feels like he gets caught a half-second late and doesn’t offer much of an obstacle in stopping his man from getting to the rim. Although he did struggle to stay in front of some smaller, faster guards, it is important to note that there were moments when he made up for the lack of footspeed and anticipation by using his length to recover and block some shots.
This is where I’m at with Cody on the defensive side of the ball, and maybe this applies to his overall scouting report. There is a good foundation of god-given size and tools to work with. The type of defender he becomes will depend on the work he puts into this side of the ball and the coaching staff that gets him. Even with his holes on define, I’m not claiming that he’s a bad defender; my point is that he can be a really good and impactful one if he cleans things up. I just don’t believe he’s there yet.
Before we wrap, I want to highlight some of the concerns draft analysts from Bleacher Report and The Ringer had for Zach Wilson before my beloved New York Jets took him with the second overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Looking back at how his career has gone, something that needs to be mentioned is that the Jets didn’t exactly put him in a position to succeed. For a guy who struggled with timing in the pocket and accuracy, it probably didn’t help that he never had a consistent or good offensive line in front of him. Wilson came into the league with some real strengths and potential. Unfortunately, things didn’t work out for him in NY, and not all of it was his fault.
With his size, skill, and pedigree, there’s almost no chance Cody Williams will not be taken in the lottery in the 2024 NBA draft. Like Zach Wilson, there’s real talent and a world where you can develop Cody into an impactful wing on both ends of the floor. Like Zach Wilson, don’t be shocked if he ends up going in the top three in this upcoming class. Considering the overall tone of my piece, some of you may be confused about whether or not Cody is worth taking in the Top 10. My answer is simple: stay the course and take bets on wings. The Bears took Justin Fields in the Top 15 just a few years ago and are now back at number one, ready to take Caleb Williams and start over. You can either end up back in the Top 10 in a couple of years, doing the same thing all over again—or you could hit a home run and end up with an incredibly talented wing.