Coen Carr Reminds Us That Life is Unfair | The Prospect Overview
Michigan State’s Coen Carr is a human highlight reel. Throw in his skill developments and recent NBA trends, and he could be a 2026 NBA Draft pick!
One of the most vivid memories of my basketball childhood was the 2001 NBA Finals.
I couldn’t stand the Lakers. As someone who grew up in the Chicagoland area, the Kobe Bryant-Michael Jordan comparisons never sat right with me. The idea of someone being compared to the star that made me fall in love with the game was unpalatable, and it made me resent Bryant, even if the comparisons weren’t his own doing.
But the guy I really hated was Shaq. I hated how big, strong, and mobile he was. I hated how he could get wherever he wanted on the floor before dunking all over the opposing team. There was nothing anyone could do to stop him. The 2001 Finals made me an Allen Iverson fan, and in turn, a 76ers fan. Opposite Shaq, Iverson was the ultimate underdog. He was skinny, small, and scrappy. He had to fight tooth and nail to create openings. He was constantly getting knocked to the floor. Even though we had little in common, I saw more of myself in Iverson than I could ever see myself in Shaq. I desperately wanted him to overcome the odds. But unfortunately, as I learned from the Malcolm in the Middle theme song, life is unfair. So was Shaquille O’Neal.
Some players simply have physical gifts that others cannot attain. One of those players is Coen Carr.
Scoring
Michigan State’s Coen Carr is a 6’6”, 230-pound junior. He is an absolute force physically and athletically.
Right now, Carr is most known for his finishing. Notably, he’s known for the highlight reel dunks that he throws down on a game-by-game basis. Last season, Carr threw down 62 dunks, which was the third-most by a 6’6”-and-under underclassman in the BartTorvik era. He already has seven dunks through three games this season. He’s a genuine outlier from a run-jump-power perspective. He’s unbelievable on the open floor. Last season, Carr ranked in the 97th percentile in transition frequency and the 90th percentile in transition frequency.
He’s a blur on the open floor, he’s impossible to contain once he has a head of steam, and he’s a ridiculous vertical athlete. If he’s on a run-out or gets thrown a lob, the other team can call it a day. There’s half-court functionality, too. Carr is a timely cutter and an impactful offensive rebounder. If his man loses him off the ball or doesn’t box him out, Carr is sure to make him pay. Plus, he’s shown a little bit more on the ball this year. When he drives from a spot-up, he gets low to the ground and is nearly impossible to knock off his line. If anyone is getting bumped backwards, it’s the guy trying to stay in front of him. And once he gets to the rim, Carr’s frame enables him to rise through contact with ease. In combination, these traits and abilities led to Carr converting a center-like 68.8% of his halfcourt rim attempts last season, per Synergy.
Carr’s scoring profile has a glaring hole in it, unfortunately. He’s a non-shooter at the moment and would require outlier development to be anything more than that. Through three college seasons, Carr has gone 65.2% at the free-throw line and 5-for-18 from three-point range. Between his subpar percentage at the charity stripe and low volume from long distance, the indicators are not in his favor. The tape isn’t very encouraging, either. His feet and hips aren’t square to the basket. The ball path starts slowly, then accelerates around his face. While I would love for Carr to suddenly become a knockdown guy, the responsible front office approach would be to view Carr’s jump shot as something you’ll probably have to live without, at least throughout the duration of his rookie contract.
Playmaking
Coming into the year, I was skeptical of Coen Carr’s playmaking ability. As a sophomore, he averaged 0.5 APG to 0.9 TOV. His career usage rate of 15.7% and assist rate of 4.6% are something you see far more often from clumsy, untrustworthy big men than 6’6” wings. But context matters. During Carr’s freshman season, Michigan State had heaps of playmaking talent. A.J. Hoggard, Jeremy Fears Jr., Tyson Walker, and Tre Holloman are all super reliable, capable creators. The next season, all but Hoggard remained, and the turnover-averse Jase Richardson entered the equation. It raises the question as to whether Carr’s low assist numbers were the result of capability or circumstance.
We’re early in the year, but so far, I’m leaning toward circumstance. Carr has made some impressive passes this season. For starters, he’s shown a good degree of floor mapping, quickly moving the ball from a standstill to open teammates. But what’s really impressed me is how Carr has been able to wheel and deal a little bit on the go. When Carr drives to the basket, he brings tremendous gravity with him. Defenses know his primary defender is going to have a hard time containing him, and they know that Carr is going to want to rip the rim off the basket. It is of utmost importance that the rim protector be placed in position, as this gravity will create low-hanging fruit for Carr.
The numbers back up what we’ve seen on tape, too. While a three-game sample isn’t exactly large, Carr’s AST% has skyrocketed to 22.3%, and he’s tallied at least two assists in each game so far. If he can continue to keep his eyes up and make simple passes on the go, he’ll see an uptick in assists from that alone. But if we keep seeing him add to his arsenal with creative, well-executed passes in tight spaces, we could be dealing with something even more valuable. I’m really encouraged by the growth we’ve seen in this department.
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Defense
Carr has a path to provide value on the defensive side of things, too. He’s a handful to deal with at the point of attack. Last season, he surrendered only 9 points on 15 isolation possessions tracked by Synergy. For starters, he will rarely lose the bump battle. When Carr throws his body onto an opponent, they often come completely unglued. His physicality can force opponents to pick up their dribbles or lose the ball entirely. If nothing else, his ability to use his chest prevents opponents from getting to their spots. Plus, when he contests shots, his explosiveness and quick time off the floor make him tough to shoot over. Off-ball, he possesses a good level of engagement. He can strip ball handlers with powerful digs. He’s a big-time rim helper. Obviously, his otherworldly bounce enables him to swat shots, but his strength helps him to stay vertical inside and force misses even when he can’t nab a rejection.
Still, there are some things to work on here. As beneficial as Carr’s frame can be in some respects, it doesn’t come without drawbacks. It can be difficult for him to slink around ball screens, and he doesn’t shift directions with the greatest of ease. Additionally, he’s not the most fluid in space. It will be imperative for Carr to balance his strengths with refinement to his flexibility and agility, while also displaying great attention to detail on the court.
Philosophy
I’m going to repeat a sentence that longtime readers of my work will have seen in some form several times before. For most NBA role players, the job is to shoot threes, move the ball, and play defense. That’s what the data tells us. So, why am I so intrigued with Coen Carr? He’s unlikely to shoot threes in a meaningful capacity, we’ve only seen flashes of him moving the ball, and his defense isn’t perfect.
There are a few reasons. The first is that his profile has some similarities to the typical non-shooters who can find NBA success. He can be an impactful rebounder, flaunt his athleticism, boast excellent positional size, and make things happen on defense. If his playmaking growth is legitimate, he’ll have an ideal “everything but the shot” skill set. The other reason, though, dovetails with some recent trends in the NBA.
Teams are picking up opponents earlier defensively. For that reason, there’s an advantage to being able to get down the floor in a hurry. We’ve long known that transition and early offense are an efficient time to score. As defenses scheme to take those opportunities away, I believe there is value in finding A) players who can help you get out and run, and B) players who can stop the other team from getting out and running. This philosophy has led to early regular-season success for the Bulls and Spurs, and Coen Carr fits it like a glove. As I said earlier, he’s a blur on the open floor. He’ll run out in transition on offense and sprint to takeaways at the rim on defense.
I think there could be utility in the halfcourt, too. Michigan State has not opted to utilize Carr as a roller, which is an area where I believe he could thrive, especially if his passing development continues. If he can command any level of respect in a five-out offense, his ability to find holes to cut through could make him a valuable weapon from the weakside of the floor. Plus, if he can catch-and-go with a head of steam, look out. Certain teams (Houston, Detroit) have begun to re-prioritize offensive rebounding in recent years, too, another area where Carr could provide value.
So much of the discussion regarding basketball’s modern evolution fixates on the three-point line. That’s not unwarranted! But it feels like between this NBA season and last, other things are starting to happen, too, and it shouldn’t go unnoticed. We’re seeing more double-big lineups, fewer pick-and-rolls, more pressing, and for some teams, more crashing the glass. While the NBA will always be a copycat league to some extent, the styles feel a bit more diverse this year, and coaches seem to be getting more creative in how they weaponize unconventional talents. I believe that these circumstances, in conjunction, have created a potential runway for Coen Carr, and we’ve seen what this dude can do with a runway. If the passing improvements hold, keep an eye out for him. He’s an unfair athlete who could prove quite valuable given some of the NBA’s recent trends.
Quick Hits
-Aday Mara… my goodness. The 7’3” big man appeared on my pre-season draft board, but he was ranked way too low. The signs were always there. As a Calculator Boy, I always understood the process behind those who ranked him far higher than consensus on pre-season boards. He’s always been a hyper-productive player on a per-minute basis. My concern, though, was how many minutes he could realistically play. Mara looked downright gassed at times when UCLA played him big minutes last year. At Michigan, that appears to be far from an issue. He logged 37 minutes in the Wolverines’ win over Wake Forest, and he was dominant throughout the game. His feel and length allow him to generate clever, unorthodox angles for his on-point passes. Offensively, he’s got a giant catch radius and does a great job of keeping the ball high after grabbing a rebound or a lofty entry pass. Defensively, good luck to anyone trying to finish over him. He’s a chore to generate offense against when he’s in drop coverage. His improved conditioning also helped him to hold his own on an island late in the game. He came back to earth against TCU, but I think he’ll ultimately settle in higher than I anticipated on my board. Simply put, Aday Mara rules, and I apologize for doubting him.
-Baylor’s Cameron Carr has put himself back on the map. The redshirt sophomore was a hot name coming out of high school, but he had a quiet tenure at Tennessee. After an impressive string of exhibition performances coming into the season, he rebuilt his buzz, and he’s kept that momentum going in the regular season. The 6’5” car has always been a smooth mover with well-regarded shooting and playmaking chops. A big knock on him has been that he’s listed at 175 pounds. That is extremely concerning, but my biggest takeaway from his strong performance against Baylor was that he didn’t play skinny. He was active on the glass (grabbing six rebounds) and fearless of contact driving to the rack (drawing five fouls). I’m very excited to see if he can continue to compete with that level of physicality throughout the course of the season.
-Santa Clara’s Elijah Mahi was instrumental in the Broncos’ beatdown win over Xavier last week. The 6’7” senior (who I covered for my No Stone Unturned series this offseason) has a unique blend of size, power, and skill. He can plow his way through smaller defenders or shake bigger ones with his slick dribble combinations. Plus, he’s a super polished passer with good vision who can wire the ball through tight windows. He’s also shown an increased assertiveness from long range this season, which is good to see given his 42.5% mark from deep through two D-I seasons. Crucially, I thought his defensive activity levels were better, too. While I don’t love his lateral footspeed or technique, Mahi’s willingness to give multiple efforts and ability to cover ground have stood out this season. He’s a legitimate dribble-pass-shoot wing with NBA size and strength. Get him on your radar if you haven’t already.
-Iowa State’s Blake Buchanan caught my eye this past week. Let’s get the bad stuff out of the way—the 6’11” junior is a career 51.3% free-throw shooter. That’s not ideal! Still, there’s a lot to like on both ends. Defensively, he’s bouncy and light on his feet, which enabled him to tally three blocks and a steal in the Cyclones’ victory over Mississippi State last week. Plus, as longtime readers of my work know, I cannot resist a big man who can pass, and that’s Blake Buchanan. He can make some really sharp, precise deliveries both from the top of the key and while on the move. His combination of size, agility, and skill has me very intrigued.
-I’m glad I kept some of my Cade Tyson stock. The 6’7” senior at Minnesota is in the midst of a great bounce-back season. Tyson has always been an excellent shooter, going 42.5% from long range and 83.6% from the charity stripe over his college career. But what’s stood out so far at Minnesota is that he looks less like a scorer/shooter and more like a true basketball player. Against Missouri, he was active off the ball, generating two dunks for himself off cuts in the halfcourt. One was a simple baseline cut, the other he set up by going backdoor after leveraging his shooting gravity to shake his defender. He also did a better job of keeping his eyes up on the move. Defensively, he managed to stay square, wall up, use his length, and prevent opposing players from getting anything easy on him. I understand reservations about his athleticism, his poor junior season at North Carolina, and the fact that he’s never been the most well-rounded producer. That said, I do believe he’s taking steps in the right direction.
-South Florida senior Josh Omojafo caught my eye during last week’s game against George Washington. The 6’5” wing was all over the floor on both sides of the ball. He got the ball out of his hands quickly from three, had some big-time finishes above the rim, and made some slick passes on the go. Defensively, his frame held up more than well at the point of attack, and his attentiveness allowed him to make plays off the ball. He ended the game with 33 points, seven rebounds, three assists, three steals, and two blocks. While GW came away with the win, it was hard not to take note of Omojafo. His production at Robert Morris wasn’t anything to write home about, so we’ll have to see if this type of outing can be a consistent thing for him. That said, he looked the part of an athletic, well-rounded wing against a fantastic mid-major opponent, so he could be a sleeper name to know.
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