Coleman Hawkins is Bringing More of the Good
Illinois senior Coleman Hawkins has played his best ball this season, and it's time to take notice. PLUS: The Mid-Major Game of the Week and Quick Hits!
I’m a man of routine. I get up at the same time every day. I have a regimented workout routine and years of documents tracking my progress. My breakfast is almost always the same thing—two breakfast sandwiches (toast, two whole eggs, two egg whites, cheddar cheese), a piece of fruit, and a protein shake. I meal prep my lunches and dinners, which minimizes the amount of time I have to spend cooking, but also makes it so that I don’t have to think about what I’m going to eat for each meal. I plot out the majority of my film watching schedule a week in advance. I love a streamlined process, I love efficiency, and I love consistency.
In years past, that made Coleman Hawkins a difficult evaluation for me. The 6’10” Illinois senior was one of the most up-and-down prospects in the sport. On the right day, you could catch a Fighting Illini game and think, “wow, this is the perfect modern four.” Size, skill, and defense, all on display. On other nights, he’d be erratic and perform far below an NBA level. Sometimes, it was 17 points, five rebounds, four assists, two blocks, and a steal against a good Penn State team. Others, it was six points on 1-5 shooting with five turnovers against a Monmouth team that went 7-26. As a guy who craves consistency, I found it maddening.
This year, Coleman Hawkins limped out of the gate, both figuratively and literally. His performances were poor, but he was also dealing with tendinitis in his knee. To be honest, I was ready to write him off. Then, Hawkins turned the corner in a big way. Not only has he been more productive, he’s also been more consistent. And this consistent version of him…sheesh!
Coleman Hawkins since 12/9/23:
20 GP, 33.0 MPG, 15.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.9 APG, 1.7 TOV, 2.0 SPG, 1.1 BPG
48.3/42.6/79.2
A 6’10” guy doing all of that? Sign me up. Over this stretch, Hawkins has only been held below 10 points on three occasions. Additionally, his turnovers have only outweighed his assists three times. In the past, his scoring output and decision-making were roller coasters. It was impossible to know what you’d get from him on a night-to-night basis. That’s no longer the case. Coleman Hawkins has been bringing more of the good, and it’s time that more people start taking notice of that. Let’s get into the nuts and bolts of his game, and why Hawkins’s newfound consistency makes him so appealing!
Shooting
Coleman Hawkins has taken significant strides as a three-point shooter this season. In past years, Hawkins had displayed a willingness to shoot the ball, and while he was never a good shooter, he wasn’t a terrible one for a 6’10” guy, either. During his first three college seasons, he made 28.1% of his triples on 6.5 attempts per 100 possessions. This year, he’s averaging a career-high in both volume (8.8 attempts per 100 possessions) and percentage (39.3%).
Hawkins is at his best off the catch. Per Synergy, he’s converted 39.8% of his catch-and-shoot threes this season. What’s more, Hawkins isn’t one of those “fake floor spacers” who hugs the college line. Instead, he often positions himself from NBA distance. While he gets overambitious in this respect at times, it’s assuring to see that level of confidence, especially now that he’s getting better results. In the past, he’d oscillated between too passive and too aggressive from behind the arc, but now, he’s found a great balance. Additionally, Hawkins has gone 8-for-19 on transition triples this year, showing that he doesn’t need to be completely stationary to connect.
Two small details stood out that could lead to even better results. I’d like to see a higher release point and more impactful screening from Hawkins. Often times, his follow through will be more out in front of his body than over his head. If you drew a line parallel to the floor that came off the top of his head, you’re looking at about a 35-degree angle. This low apex may be why he prefers to shoot from further behind the line—it’s an easier shot to block and contest. Additionally, Hawkings making more contact on screens could go a long way. He’s an effective slip and ghost shooter right now, thanks to his agility and shot prep footwork. But when he’s supposed to be physical on a screen, he can leave something to be desired. This minimizes the advantage that the ball handler is attempting to create. By getting his ball handler more open, he’ll get himself more open, too. If he does that, he will become an even more versatile screener. Which brings us to his playmaking!
Playmaking
Coleman Hawkins can do some really cool stuff as a passer. Since we were just talking about screening, the obvious first thing to mention is going to be his upside as a short-roll option. He does a great job of reading the floor from the top of the key. The basics and easy swings are there, but he’s more advanced than most. Whether it’s recognizing a cutter darting to the rim or making the simple swing pass to punish a rotation in a 4-on-3 setting, Hawkins can do it. What’s more, he’s better at putting it on the deck than most his size. When he does go downhill, he keeps his eyes up for openings. These are some of Hawkins’s most intriguing moments. He’ll use his eyes to look off his feeds or throw a dazzling, unexpected pass type to thread needles, like the bounce pass to the corner in the clips below.
Hawkins isn’t without his faults. He’ll occasionally bite off more than he can chew here, too. Sometimes he’ll get too flashy as a passer, or his handle will come loose during one of his dribble combinations. He’s far less comfortable driving right than he is left. But the important thing here is the progression. Hawkins’s 19.6 USG% is a career-high, and his 14.0 TOV% is his best mark during the three seasons in which he’s played over 10 MPG. He’s always posted good assist rates for a 6’10” guy, but now he’s reduced his mistakes and cut his TOV% by nearly seven percentage points. Hawkins’s 2.8 APG to 1.8 TOV is one of the statistics that makes him most appealing to me.
While Hawkins will likely never have the offense run through him on a consistent basis at the NBA level, the ability to take care of the ball is imperative, even at the big spots. I ran some numbers on the NBA website. During this current season, 46 players standing 6’10” or taller have played 20 MPG or more. Of those 46 players, only seven had a negative assist-to-turnover ratio.
Andre Drummond
Walker Kessler
Nick Richards
Rudy Gobert
Myles Turner
Victor Wembanyama
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Having a negative assist-to-turnover ratio clearly isn’t curtains for an NBA big, as there are some awesome players on this list. That said, the guys on that list who I would really want on my team are all outstanding defenders. Generally, if you’re going to struggle with playmaking on a good team, you’re going to have to be fantastic somewhere else. Having feel and skill as a decision-maker is of great importance, even for taller players. Hawkins being in a position to check those boxes will help him immensely, especially in a world where NBA teams are moving off of less productive younger players at a rapid pace.
Finishing Issues
My biggest criticism of Hawkins’s offensively is that he’s been a poor finisher this season. His 52.1% at the rim in the halfcourt is a red flag number for someone his size. He has a hard time playing through contact. When he runs into opposing bodies, he’s often forced to settle for subpar, below-the-rim angles at the cup. His touch doesn’t stay with him when he’s bumped off his spot. Too often, he’ll miss an inside look and then get upset that he didn’t get a whistle. The good news is that Hawkins has actually been better here in the past, making 69% of his halfcourt rim attempts as a sophomore and 74.4% of them as a junior. He’ll still need to get stronger to deal with NBA bodies at the next level, but it’s not a lost cause.
Defense
Coleman Hawkins brings significant value on the defensive end. Let’s start with the on-ball stuff. He’s a fluid mover for someone his size, allowing him to stay in front of smaller players on the perimeter. He does a good job of staying in his stance and sliding as opposed to turning and chasing. From there, he gets off the floor with ease to reject opponents at the rim. While he can struggle against bigger bodies on the block, Hawkins has put on some size and held position better this year. I feel better about him as a “fours and under” defender than I would about him on a traditional five man, but broadly speaking, few NBA players will make him seriously uncomfortable.
There’s a lot to like off-ball, especially when it comes to ball screen coverages. In drop coverage, he has the speed to get back to his man on pick-and-pops. He knows how to use his length and positioning to stifle penetration and prevent ball handlers from getting inside the paint. Hawkins also does a good job of racking up steals in ball screens, either by using his quick hands to poke the ball loose or by baiting opponents into throwing bad passes. While Illinois often has him in drop, the fact that he is a nimble mover who guards smaller opponents well gives me little worries about him in coverages that require more agility, such as switching, showing, or hedging and recovering. At times, Hawkins can get lost against more complex offensive sets, but like other elements of his game, he’s shown greater consistency in that respect.
Much of what makes Hawkins an interesting offensive player shows up on the defensive end—he has size, but he also has perimeter skills and a strong level of feel. Hawkins knack for reading the ball handler understanding how offenses flow make him an impactful off-ball defender. On the ball, his long arms and nimble feet make him difficult to shake. Hawkins’ 3.1 STL% and 2.9 BLK% are strong marks. Additionally, he has the best DRtg of any Illinois player this season.
Positional Fit
A tricky part of Hawkins’s game to evaluate is his rebounding. On paper, it’s alarming. Over the past three seasons, he has a DREB% of 14.3 and an OREB% of 5.3. Those are numbers more typically associated with forward prospects than bigs. Even in that respect, they’re underwhelming. There’s an optimistic argument to be made here, as Illinois’s starting five does feature four other players who punch above their weight on the glass. But Hawkins’s limitations as a rebounder, his issues with physicality inside, and his mundane shot blocking numbers for someone who gets to play the five a lot do raise real questions about his positional versatility.
To be clear, I’m totally cool with, “Coleman Hawkins, jumbo four.” But the fact that he’s unlikely to anchor NBA defenses or control the boards makes the idea of him as a five man in smaller lineups harder to accept. If a team wants to role with him in that concept, they’ll likely need to have other plus-weakside rim protectors and rebounds on the floor with him. I just don’t see him making the multiple adjustments needed to play the five consistently on his rookie contract. Still, I think the idea of him as a jumbo four has tremendous appeal, and I’m not too bothered by this.
Projection
Once you get to a certain range of the draft, “sure things” become fewer and farther between. You have to bet on something. Am I positive that Coleman Hawkins will have a long, successful NBA career? I’m not. I wish I felt more confident in his rebounding. His strength wouldn’t be as concerning if he was entering the league at a younger age. The ghosts of inconsistencies past loom large. It could be tough for him to carve out a consistent rotation spot if he’s up and down from a production standpoint.
But if I’m going to bet on someone, I’d like to bet on someone like Coleman Hawkins. He’s 6’10” with real ball skills. He’s been knocking down threes from the NBA line all year. Defensively, he does a great job in space and can provide some weakside rim protection. There are shades of guys like Dario Saric, Santi Aldama, Jalen Smith, and Duop Reath in his game. While that may not be the sexiest list in the world, those are all guys on track to have long NBA careers. That’s because players with a real level of on-ball juice and/or shooting at Hawkins’ size are tough to come by. There’s a rarity to his skill set. At worst, these guys can eat innings. At best, they give you a unique stylistic advantage.
I understand the drawbacks. But at a certain point, it’s tough to look past what Coleman Hawkins has produced this season. He’s brought more of the good, which is what scouts have wanted to see from him for a long time. I’d love him in the second round. Still, I wouldn’t write him off in the first round. It might not be likely, but a strong finish to the season and an impressive pre-draft process could get him there.
Mid-Major Game of the Week
This week’s Mid-Major Game of the Week saw the Bradley Braves topple the Southern Illinois Salukis, 86-67.
The biggest name to note here is Bradley’s Malevy Leons, who’s had fans in Sicko Circles for some time. He finished the game with 16 points, six rebounds, six blocks (!!!), and one assist.
Defense has long been the sell for the 6’9” graduate, and this game was a great example as to why. He’s outstanding within a team concept. His arms appear comically long, and he’s extremely sharp as a help defender. He recognizes openings at warp speed and gets in position to prevent the opposing offense from getting anything easily. Five of his six blocks came around the basket as a helper. He can also use his length to get into passing lanes and opposing handles. It feels like you can’t do anything on the court without him showing up and ruining it. Few players in college hoops are this disruptive. His 2.9 STL% and 4.6 BLK% speak to that. He’s likely in line for his second Missouri Valley Conference Defensive Player of the Year award.
Offensively, Leons plays a simple game. He takes spot-up jumpers, occasionally posts up to use his length to his advantage, and cuts when there are openings. He’s a career 36% three-point shooter on moderate volume (6.7 attempts per 100 possessions. His 1-for-3 outing from deep against the Salukis was standard stuff from him. He can be a bit more passive than I’d like behind the arc. Leons moves off the ball, with his timing and bounce off one foot serving him well when he cuts.
Leons still has his limitations. He has little in the way of ball skills. He’s an upright driver with an iffy first step. Over the course of his Division I career, he’s posted 126 assists to 130 turnovers. He’s not that quick or strong, which could limit his on-ball defensive equity at the next level. He can be sort of knock-kneed in his stance. Stronger Southern Illinois players managed to push him back with their physicality, and quicker guards got by him a few times. Additionally, he may have less athletic upside given that he’ll turn 25 by the start of his first NBA season.
In spite of his drawbacks, I imagine some front office will offer Leons an Exhibit-10 contract. The team defense is special, so if an organization thinks he can at least space the floor well enough, it would make sense to kick the tires on him. A guy like Nate Mensah was much older than his peers last year, but the fact that he can anchor a defense got him a foot in the door, and he turned that into a two-way contract. Given that 3-and-D forwards are in demand, it’s tough to imagine that Leons won’t get serious looks. Strong outings at events like the Portsmouth Invitational could also launch him into an immediate two-way.
On the Southern Illinois side of the coin, I was locked onto Xavier Johnson. I wrote about the 6’1” graduate in my Spreadsheet Sleepers column earlier this season. He’s a stat sheet stuffer with obscene range and some physical strength. His averages of 21.9 PPG, 6.1 APG, 4.1 RPG, and 1.5 SPG are sure to raise eyebrows. Add in his scoring efficiency (58.0 TS%) and a low turnover rate (15.2%), and it’s clear that he has more of an NBA chance than most mid-major guards.
Johnson had a tough one against Bradley. Foul trouble landed him on the bench toward the end of the first half. He ended the night with nine points on 3-8 shooting, three points, three assists, and three turnovers. There were some rough moments, like a Leons rejection from behind in the first half and a bricked three in the second. Still, the tape showed some encouraging moments. He routinely created advantages, they just didn’t pay off. His speed, footwork, and use of fakes got him to his spots. He made good passes that didn’t end up being assists and he showed some impressive fluidity as a decision maker. Even his turnovers weren’t anything terrible. While Leons did strip him at one point, the other two were the result of a bobbled pass and slipping on the court, not decision-making blunders. It wasn’t a good results night, but the processes were generally solid.
This will be the last edition of the Mid-Major Game of the Week. Once conference tournament play begins, it’s tough to get the schedule/polling done in a convenient fashion. Still, fear not! The Prospect Overview column itself isn’t going anywhere, and I’ll make sure to get some Mid-Major guys in the Quick Hits section every week!
Quick Hits
-Dalton Knecht had another bonkers outing last week, dropping 39 points on an Auburn team with some reputable defenders. He’s an electric scorer. His 41.4% from deep on high volume and high difficulty against a tough schedule is elite stuff. Inside the arc, he’s got a mid-range bag and he can finish above the rim. The knocks on Knecht are his age, passing, and defense. Age is a little tricky, though, as Knecht was a late bloomer who only stopped growing a few years ago. His 23 years old is different than a lot of other guys that same age, in my book. Additionally, he’s actually been better at passing and defending this year against better competition. Plus, he’s 6’6” with a strong body, it’s not like he’s behind the curve physically. I don’t think he’s going to be a significant negative on that end. I’m more than content buying up stock from any skeptics.
-I’ve been slower to move Hunter Sallis up my board, but at a certain point, he’s clearly just better at basketball than a lot of other guys. He’s in an odd spot positionally, as he doesn’t have true wing size or true NBA guard skills. Generally, I tend to avoid those types of players. That said, Sallis’s upward trajectory has been outrageous. A year ago, he wasn’t a threat to score at all. Now, he’s averaging 18.3 PPG on 50.4/42.8/79.1 splits on a good ACC team. He’s good off the catch from long range, but he’s also drained 43.6% of his pull-up threes and 52.4% of his pull-up twos. If teams chase him off the line, he’ll be more than willing to put someone on a poster. While I’m not wild about his playmaking for others, his assist-to-turnover ratio has improved in conference play. At the end of the day, he’s clearly good at basketball and he seems to be improving more with each passing second. I don’t have him in my first round just yet, but I reserve the right to change my opinion on that.
-After a brief slump, Melvin Ajinca has gotten back on track. The 6’8” 19-year-old French prospect is playing for Saint-Quentin in his nation’s top domestic league. The sell with him is simple—he’s a tall sharpshooter who can connect off movement with a quick pop time. He’s launching 5.7 threes per game in 24.1 MPG, and he’s converting 37.3% of them. While the percentage isn’t extraordinarily high, the volume, degree of difficulty, and the fact that he’s doing this in a pro league make it intriguing. He’s far from a bad athlete, but the rest of his game needs work. Ajinca doesn’t have much passing vision, rarely looks to go downhill, and his defense needs a lot of work. Still, he’s a worthwhile second round pick, whether it’s as a draft-and-stash or a developmental project. Movement shooters with that size aren’t easy to come by.
-I never fully bought into the Grant Nelson thing. That said, the 6’10” athletic center has made some real strides. His jump shot remains theoretical, and he does have some bad defensive lapses. But he’s shown more poise as a decision-maker, and it’s hard not to get excited when he rolls hard to the rim. Leaning more into his slashing has been huge for him. Prior to conference play, he was jacking 4.6 threes per game and only converting 26.7% of them, leading to a 58.0 TS%. While his offensive role may be smaller now, he’s reduced his three-point attempts to 2.0 per game in conference, and his TS% has risen to 65.7%. If Nelson does become a shooter, that would be great. But right now, he’s most effective using his bounce and power to bring gravity around the basket. I still think he gets a two-way.
-I should probably talk about RJ Davis since he dropped 42 points last week. Davis did it all. He used his sudden first step to get inside the arc. His nasty blend of speed and deceleration generated him space in the mid-range. Davis also drained seven threes, thanks to his logo range, quick release off the dribble, and movement shooting ability. So many of his buckets came from running around off-ball actions, which is good! It means that he’s not a guy who is going to want/need to have the ball in his hands all the time at the next level. The NBA questions are common ones for small guards— does he have enough playmaking, can he hold his own on defense, and is he up to the task physically? I’m not certain. But outings like that will make him a clear favorite for a G League Elite Camp invite. That will give him a huge chance to make his case.
-Princeton’s Xaivian Lee is simply a hoot to watch. He’s got a slick handle, he can live-dribble pass with both hands, and he’s displayed impressive shot-making chops. The 6’3” sophomore also avoids a common pitfall of many young guards with on-ball talent in that he’s more than willing to work without the ball in his hands. His physicality holds him back a hair on defense right now, but he’s got good instincts, speed, and he can fly for blocks. Most mid-major guards don’t have what he’s bringing to the table, and he’s a real NBA prospect.
-Shoutout to No Stone Unturned prospect BJ Freeman! The offense has never been in doubt for me. He’s posting 20.2 PPG on 41.5/37.1/83.2 splits. Still, he’s got some playmaking juice to him, and he’s averaging 4.2 APG. The biggest thing, though, is that he’s improved defensively. He’s more active on the glass, his motor is running higher, and he’s making more plays off the ball. Freeman’s rebound, steal, and block numbers have all ticked up this year. If he can continue to round out his game, he could be all over draft radars during his senior year.
-Don’t sleep on Rasheer Fleming, either. The 6’9” sophomore had some outstanding moments in Temple’s game against VCU back on the 25th. He’s got a strong body, but he’s supremely comfortable when switched down, and he blocked two different perimeter jumpers in that game. Not a lot of guys have his combination of closeout polish, ground coverage, and rim protection. The offensive game is still a work in progress, but his gorgeous high-release jumper gives me real optimism.