Collin Murray-Boyles is Begging For Us To Buy In
Collin Murray-Boyles has all the tools to be one of the gems to come out of the 2024 NBA Draft.
Every year, there’s always at least one prospect who is entirely baffling. You can’t quite put your finger on what is so captivating about their game, but you know that they are an NBA player in some form or fashion. For me, that player (potentially) in the 2024 NBA Draft class is the freshman from South Carolina, Collin Murray-Boyles.
The reactions and evaluations of Murray-Boyles are about as wide-ranging as you could imagine. One of the things I’ve struggled with the most is simply trying to figure out who he is in the NBA. At 6’7” and 231 pounds, Murray-Boyles has a game that feels like it was plucked from history and put back in the wrong spot on the timeline. He plays like an old-school power forward (aside from some of the fascinating ball skill stuff that we’ll get to), but he has the size of a modern wing.
Typically, a few statistical queries tend to help when looking for comparisons, but even after combing Barttorvik, I came away perplexed. Murray-Boyles’s production has been astronomical this year despite his limited minutes. When we look at players from a true high major conference who have an offensive rebounding rate of at least 10, a defensive rebounding rate of at least 15, an assist rate of at least 15, a block rate of at least 3, and a steal rate of at least 2, the resulting list consists of just Murray-Boyles, Oso Ighodaro, and Johni Broome. Those are two of the most productive upperclassmen in the country, and Ighodaro is typically in or near the first round of most mock drafts you’ll find.
What’s so interesting about that grouping is that Murray-Boyles is putting up similar numbers to two guys who are the leaders of two of the best teams in the country. Not only are they upperclassmen, but they are focal points of the offense. Murray-Boyles is producing similar results despite being a freshman. What’s even more fascinating is the freshmen since 2008 to hit those same marks. Using the same criteria as before, but limiting it to just freshmen, we get a list of Murray-Boyles, Zion Williamson, Blake Griffin, Dedric Lawson, and Day’Ron Sharpe. Now do you understand why I’m struggling with comps?
As a point of order, my main uses for comparisons are to figure out potential roles, paths to success, and proof of concept; not to find a one-for-one doppelganger. When I look at the players who have produced like Murray-Boyles has been, I come away equal parts excited and concerned. The optimistic view is that he’s producing in a similar vein to some of the most fascinating college players of all time who have gone on to have solid NBA careers. Unfortunately, there are some real red flags that come with that.
For starters, Murray-Boyles plays like a center but is the size of most wings. Of that previous list, Murray-Boyles’s game most closely resembles that of Sharpe, but Sharpe has a meaningful size advantage. Even when we look at Williamson and Griffin, they found most of their success because they were two of the most extraordinary outlier athletes in college basketball (and NBA for that matter) history. Murray-Boyles is a very good athlete, but he isn’t on their level. Even though there are some very real red flags and hurdles in the way for Murray-Boyles to succeed in the NBA, I continue to come away incredibly impressed with his all-around game.
One of the brightest spots of Murray-Boyles’s game is his interior scoring. So far this season, 81.8% of his shots have come at the rim (94th percentile in frequency) and he is scoring 1.34 points per shot (84th percentile) while shooting 67%, per Synergy. He’s a monster on the offensive glass, is fantastic at cutting (81st percentile) and finding open pockets, can finish out of the roll, and has the versatility to finish with finesse or power with either hand.
If Murray-Boyles solely relied on overpowering defenders, his at-rim scoring translation would be really concerning. At 6’7”, the opportunities to consistently do that will be minimal. Overall, though, he has the tools to be a frustrating mismatch. He has the strength to overpower smaller defenders, but he also has the speed to torch larger defenders. Here, Murray-Boyles sets a cross screen that his defender shows on by just half a step. This creates just a little extra space that the defender has to recover. As Murray-Boyles receives the pass, Trevon Brazile lazily recovers. Murray-Boyles shows off his decisive decision-making and quick first step as he immediately rips through to create the baseline drive and dunk.
While Murray-Boyles’s at-rim scoring is versatile and dynamic, his shooting is the exact opposite. Before I dive into my thoughts, watch the below 55-second video that contains all of his jumpers this season.
That’s it; that’s all eight of the jumpers, per Synergy, that Murray-Boyles has taken this year. Shooting 12.5% (1-8) on jumpers is alarming in its own right but having only 5.8% of your shot attempts (8-of-137) be a jumper is highly concerning. Plenty of players end up developing a reliable jumper in the NBA, and given his at-rim scoring touch, I wouldn’t rule it out. Even his form isn’t that bad. There are certainly things to be fixed and ironed out, but I wouldn’t classify it as broken. However, aside from a gut feeling, there aren’t many indicators that point towards him being a reliable shooter.
So far, Murray-Boyles is shooting just 65.1% on free throws. Additionally, he doesn’t have a track record of being a reliable shooter. Over the 12 games at Wasatch Academy on Synergy, Murray Boyles shot just 63.2% on free throws, took 21 total jumpers, and shot only 38.1% on those jumpers. In his 18 games for Upward Stars 17U, he shot 51% from the line, took 32 jumpers, and shot 40.6% on those jumpers. Again, unfortunately, there isn’t much in Murray-Boyles’s game that suggests that he’s going to grow into a reliable shooter.
While the bulk of players with similar indicators never develop a consistent jumper, it isn’t entirely unheard of. Both Griffin and Julius Randle, who Murray-Boyles shares a statistical and stylistic profile with, were far from reliable shooters coming into the league. While at Oklahoma, Griffin shot just 19% on 21 jumpers (out of 273 field goal attempts) as a freshman and 46.4% on 28 jumpers (out of 435 field goal attempts) as a sophomore. He also failed to break 65% from the line in either season. In his freshman season at Kentucky, Randle did shoot 70.5% from the line, better but still not great, but he only shot 20.4% on the 54 jump shots that he took (out of 389 field goal attempts). Both Griffin and Randle are clearly outliers when it comes to shooting development in this archetype of player. However, even without a bona fide jumper, we’ve seen players like Jeremy Sochan, Thaddeus Young, Kyle Anderson, and many more find ways to carve out a long career. Murray-Boyles has a tremendous amount of work to do on his jumper, which he’ll have to do to make it, but he at least has a few players that he can point to as examples of how to grow.
If Murray-Boyles only brought offensive rebounding and at-rim finishing to the table on offense, there would be a lot less intrigue with his game. Thankfully, he continues to prove that he’s a phenomenal passer. Murray-Boyles is just one of 20 players who are at least 6’7” from a true high major conference this season that has an assist rate over 17; there is only one other freshman, shoutout Kyshawn George.
What’s even more impressive is that Murray-Boyles has a turnover rate under 15%. Not only would he be the only freshman to hit those marks this season, but he’d join Robbie Hummel as the only freshman to do it since 2008. There’s a lot of noise there, but the crux is that Murray-Boyles is already a productive playmaker who isn’t careless with the ball.
Murray-Boyles likely won’t be a point forward in the future, but that doesn’t diminish the impact that his passing can have on an offense. He has a great understanding of floor spacing, angles, and is a threat as a passer out of a myriad of situations. Whether he’s finding a cutter, kicking out of the post, or creating out of the short roll, Murray-Boyles’s passing is exactly what teams demand from their forwards in the NBA.
Murray-Boyles’s offensive translation to the NBA may be a clunky one that takes some time, but his defense will likely be his route to minutes. Murray-Boyles can get a bit jumpy at times, but overall, there is very little to question about his defense. His combination of strength, size, and agility is exactly what we see from the league’s premier defenders. He can battle in the post, help from the weak side, and switch on the perimeter.
From a metrics standpoint, he currently has a steal rate of 2.6, a block rate of 3.7, and a defensive box-plus-minus of 3.9, all of which are very encouraging, especially for a freshman. Additionally, when Murray-Boyles is on the court, South Carolina’s defensive rating is 96.5, which ranks 24th. When he’s off the court, it drops to 101.4 (95th). As we can see, Murray-Boyles impacts every inch of the court on defense when he’s on the floor. There are very few players built like him who do the things on the defensive end that he does night in and night out.
When we look at the 2024 NBA Draft class, there are a miniscule number of prospects who possess the defensive tools and upside that Murray-Boyles has. He has the rare ability to effortlessly flow between assignments, act as a defensive playmaker, and consistently execute his off-ball responsibilities. On top of that, he is a dominant rebounder on both ends who consistently finishes around the rim. Murray-Boyles will likely need to develop a jump shot of some kind, but his already-established skills should be more than enough to garner some serious intrigue come draft day.
I like the write up. I just recently started diving into CMB and I love him as a prospect and think he has the highest ceiling of anyone in the draft. He seems to be good to great at all the metrics I like except shooting. Given his size and age I can see a perennial all star player or even MVP candidate should he develop a good jump shot (big if). Topic is the only other player I see a >10% outcome of perennial all star.