Cooper Flagg: Number One of Number Ones
Cooper Flagg has all but cemented himself as the top prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft Class. Stephen compares him to other #1 picks from years past! | PLUS: Stephen's Scouting Notes
Early on in this cycle, there was a legitimate conversation involving Cooper Flagg and how much better he was compared to his draft class peers. Rutgers’ Dylan Harper had been giving him a run for his money, which left many analysts and scouts feeling that he and Flagg were in the same tier. Cooper was struggling with his shooting efficiency and hadn’t shown himself to be true offensive threat, while Harper was off to an incredible start as an offensive hub.
To be completely transparent, I was one of those who had Dylan as my top prospect. I thought that Cooper showed real signs of concern with his jumper. He has always been a legitimate defensive prospect, but how much more valuable is the best defensive player over the best offensive one? That question doesn’t really need to be dissected anymore with Flagg’s emergence as the best, most well-rounded prospect of his class.
Having just turned 18, Cooper finds himself in rarified air. He has the best chance of winning college basketball’s player of the year as a freshman since fellow Blue Devil Zion Williamson did in 2019. Zion came into basketball already a celebrity, having a massive following due to his social media presence, physical dimensions, and freakish athleticism. Zion would go on the be the #1 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. There has been no doubt of his talent since arriving in the NBA—only his health and more recently his commitment. Needless to say, Flagg has done well to fill the blown-out shoes that Zion left for him in Durham.
But how has he held up to the top picks of years past?
Offense
What we’re going to do here is something similar to what I did when I wrote about Stephon Castle, Nikola Topic, and Alex Sarr all having strong cases to be the #1 pick in last year’s draft: compare what Cooper has done up until this point to the top (and best) players from recent drafts. This time, I only want to go from 2015-2023. This timeframe will help accomplish a couple of things. For one, it helps to establish recent trends within the game. Two, it gives Zaccharie Risacher a little more time to establish himself as a pro.
Establishing a baseline with those players will also allow us to put into perspective what Flagg has been able to do at this point of his young basketball career. Let’s take a look at a baseline among the prior top picks:
When looking at these numbers, one thing I found interesting is how the top two players on this chart—Wemby and Ant—are actually the two lowest in the Effective Field Goal percentage column. However, as we know, these two are incredibly special based on their unique physical gifts. The other important thing I’d like to remind you all of is that the three-point percentage among these players is relatively low. That fares nicely for Cooper, as he has received criticism on his jumper throughout the year.
Shooting
One of the best performances of Cooper’s (#2 in white) college season so far came against Notre Dame, when he dropped 42 points on 11-of-14 scoring. What stood out most in this game was that Flagg made four of his six three-pointers. Take a look at this shot here, which was more than just a stationary catch-and-shoot.
This play comes as Duke is looking to push the break following a miss from Notre Dame. Kon Knueppel (#7 in white) brings the ball up the floor and looks to apply pressure. Kon hits a nice crossover as the defender engages him. Cooper is actually on the other side of the floor as Knueppel drives to the paint. Flagg cuts from the right wing to the left. It’s hard to tell from the film, but Kon and Cooper appear to have elite chemistry, as Kon picks up his dribble, pivots away from the lane, and makes a clean pass to our guy.
Cooper is able to catch this shot in rhythm and convert the open three. This shot looks clean; the follow-through is high and there is a ton of confidence shown from him that the shot is going in. On the year, Flagg is shooting around 33% from three on over 7 attempts per 100.
In his most recent game, against NC State, Cooper shows his tough shot-making ability. The Wolfpack gave Duke fits throughout most of this game, requiring Flagg to fight through one of his worst first halves of the season. This clip follows NC State having hit a three-pointer, reducing the lead to just one point.
Cooper catches the ball at the top of the key to start this play. Our guy gets into his triple-threat stance, looking for a lane to exploit. Flagg is guarded by Ben Middlebrooks (#34 in red)—a 6’10” combo big man. Cooper realizes he has an advantage here. Flagg gets into a few dribbles, steps back, and sees the room given to him. He gets into his shot and hits an impressive three pointer while drawing the foul.
Pick & Roll Operation
Here’s a look at what makes Cooper such an efficient scorer and what makes him stand out as a potential star in the NBA. Cooper gets the ball on the left wing and is guarded by Arizona’s Henri Veesaar (#13 in white). Flagg knows he has an advantage here, but waits for Khaman Maluach (#9 in blue) to set a screen. With Maluach setting a screen, he brings over his defender, Tobe Awaka (#30 in white).
This is a smart decision by Flagg, as this play involves two bigger post players—both of which Cooper has an advantage over. Should they both attack him, Cooper could hit a wide-open, 7’2” big man barreling to the paint for an easy slam. Something different happens.
Maluach sets a screen to Cooper’s right, and our guy promptly drives to his right. The screen gives Flagg the room to drive right through four defenders and throw down an emphatic dunk. Plays like this illustrate why Flagg has an effective field goal percentage of 53.3%. This efficiency ranks ahead of Wemby, Paolo, Cade, and Ant. That leaves five players ahead of him, most of whom made a living around the basket.
Drawing Contact
Cooper starts this play off just inside the logo and is defended by the stout Otega Oweh (#00 in white). Our guy is screened by Knueppel, which puts Koby Brea (#7) on him following the switch. Brea and Oweh stay with Flagg, but that doesn’t stop his pursuit. He pressures both players as he continues into his shooting motion. With Brea’s arm on his shoulder, Cooper leans into the defenders and converts a shot while drawing the and-one.
It’s plays like this that make it easy to envision the success Flagg can have at the next level. Identifying mismatches is an advanced skill. Identifying mismatches and then punishing the defense while getting to the free throw line is reserved for the elite.
For those that are not aware, free throw rate (FTR) is a metric derived from a very simple equation that shows how frequently a player gets to the free throw line. This is found by dividing that player’s total free throw attempts by their total field goal attempts. Flagg boasts a free throw rate of 48.4. This is above average for previous number-one picks, with only Ben Simmons and Karl-Anthony Towns finishing ahead of what Flagg has done to this point.
When I aggregated these playmaking stats, one thing that I took special note of is how none of these previous top picks had a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. That may seem obvious (or maybe you’ve heard that before), but it wasn’t something I was necessarily looking to prove. It was also interesting to see that, regardless of position, none of these players had an assist percentage in the single digits.
Dynamic Playmaking
This play shows the star power Flagg has with the ball in his hand—even when he is playing a role as a screener. Kon has the ball at the top of the key as this play begins. Cooper—who is listed at 6’9”—comes to set a screen to Kon’s right. Cooper then makes a decisive cut to the free throw line.
Rewind this clip if you have to, because there is a very subtle but effective action happening away from the ball. Over around the right corner, Maluach is setting a screen for Tyrese Proctor (#5 in white), who then sets up camp in the corner.
This is a beautifully executed play, as both defenders commit to Knueppel on the ball. That decision leaves Cooper open at the free throw line. Our guy’s scoring gravity immediately garners the attention of the second line of the defense. As he gathers the ball and faces up, he is quickly double-teamed. The defense stops Flagg’s advance to the rim, but gives him two teammates to pass to. He opts to throw a well-timed lob to the 7’2” Maluach, which is easily finished. Plays like this from Flagg instill confidence in his teammates and demonstrate the trust he can put in them when he passes the ball.
Escape Route Passing
It’s so impressive the level of poise and composure Flagg plays with at his age and experience. Even when a play is breaking down or if the defense is selling out to stop him, our guy feels like he’s never without a way out of trouble. This clip against Pittsburgh shows that.
This play starts with Cooper setting a screen for Proctor and then sealing Jaland Lowe (#15 in blue) behind him. This allows for an entry pass of sorts to be made for Cooper to get the ball on the left wing. Flagg faces up Lowe and then drives right. Flagg hits the defense with a behind-the-back cross to the left. The deny defender, Zack Austin (#55 in blue), gambles off of Proctor to try and pressure Cooper into a mistake.
Our guy feels the pressure mounting as he picks up his dribble in the mid post. Seeing that there are three defenders around him, Cooper pivots to his right and whips a kick-out pass to an open Tyrese Proctor. Proctor gets the pass and drains the open three.
Taking what the defense gives him makes up a steady diet within Cooper’s playmaking. With a usage percentage of 31.6, he only has a turnover percentage of 16.3. His turnover percentage is actually -0.1% below the average of former number one picks, but his usage is higher than all the recent number-one picks—with the exception of Markelle Fultz.
Creation for Others
Scripted looks are fun. Passing to an open teammate for a three is awesome. The ability to improvise and create looks for others requires innate feel, which Cooper has oozing out of his ears.
We start with our guy at the top of the key, waiting for Isaiah Evans (#3 in white) to come off of the double screen. Virginia Tech defends the intended read well, which results in Flagg crossing over to his right and attacking the lane. The action ran for Evans leaves the middle of the paint open as a runway for Cooper. Frantically, the defense tries to recover to form a barricade. Our guy understands what would come of him driving to the paint, and sees the path created for a diving Maluach. Cooper lobs the ball over the wall of defenders meant to stop him, and Khaman finishes the -oop.
Plays like this exemplify why Flagg has an assist-to-turnover rate of 1.5. That number may not seem all that special, but it’s actually 0.4 better than the average of previous top picks. Markelle Fultz is the only previous number one pick to boast a better metric.
Defense
One of the metrics that is typically indicative of a prospect’s translation to the NBA is his rebounding numbers. It doesn’t really matter what position they play, either. Notice how well Fultz, Cade, and Edwards rebound for their positions. Cade is the taller of the three, but they all rebounded well despite being perimeter-oriented players. Of course, the rebound rates for big men are held to a higher regard, and that is shown in the success rate of drafted players.
Aside from rebounding, other defensive metrics are just as important—even for more offensively-tilted players. Karl-Anthony Towns is the self-proclaimed greatest shooting big man of all time, but he is also the best shot-blocking big of the last few number one picks. Zion is a physical force and has been one of the most efficient young players in NBA history, but he also uses his tools to wreak havoc defensively. Oftentimes, tools can outweigh whatever production a player puts up on defense, but you can see that for top picks, there has to be some baseline of defensive output.
Post Defense
Cooper will need to bulk up—and he should—in order for the best version of him to be optimized, but the foundation is clearly there. We get an opportunity to see Flagg defend the block against Kentucky’s senior big man, Andrew Carr (#7 in white).
Carr establishes position against our guy on the right block and looks to take advantage of his experience and strength. Carr backs Cooper up closer to the rim off of a few power dribbles. Carr goes for a quick post spin, faking to his left. Flagg does a good job with a few things here. First, he puts his left hand in position to rip the ball away should Carr continue left and get into his shooting motion. Secondly, Cooper’s defensive footwork allows him to cover the fake left while also maintaining position to defend the counter.
Flagg gets his right hand vertical quickly to contest the impending shot. His length allows him to do so without fouling. Despite not being his strongest self, our guy is able stay in the play. He doesn’t view anything as a mismatch, but rather a chance to prove himself.
Isolation Defense
Here we see our guy against another upperclassman, Matt Cross (#33 in white) of SMU. Cross gets the ball along the left wing and faces Flagg up. Cooper does a great job of defending Cross up tight and forcing him to take him off the bounce. Cross goes right and looks to force Flagg on his heels, driving his shoulder into our guy.
Cross actually creates some separation using that force combine with a hard stop, but look at how Cooper’s length lingers in the thoughts of Matt Cross. Cross rushes his shot into a quick release. There are 16 seconds left on the shot clock, so time wasn’t a factor. It was the tools and prowess of Flagg.
Cooper did get sent backwards a bit, but he competes to get back into a contesting position, challenges the shot, and forces Cross to short-arm the shot—resulting in a miss. Flagg isn’t graded out as a superstar defender per Synergy Sports, but he grades out as a solid one. He only allows 0.908 points per possession—that’s as an 18-year-old against consistently good competition.
Court Awareness
The way Flagg can survey the court on defense is already a special skill he has in his tool bag. Check out this possession against Kansas. The Jayhawks have a steady hand they can turn to in Hunter Dickinson (#1 in blue). Dickinson has a mismatch in the paint, as he is covered by Maliq Brown (#6 in white).
Take a look at where Cooper is on this play. He is in help, guarding KJ Adams (#24 in blue) on the weakside corner. Flagg shows a great understanding of the scouting report here—Dickinson is a mismatch for almost every defender in college basketball when he posts up, while his assignment KJ Adams has only attempted seven three-pointers in four seasons. Clearly, he should help Brown out.
Cooper shows great discipline here not foreshadowing to the ball-handler, Dajuan Harris (#3 in blue), that he’s going to play the entry pass. As soon as Harris goes to make the pass to Dickinson, our guy sprints to intercept it and sparks a fastbreak opportunity.
This instinctive play epitomizes the reason Flagg has a steal percentage of 2.7%. His steal percentage is 0.5% higher than the average number one pick in recent classes. Zion Williamson and Ben Simmons are the only prior top picks to record a higher steal percentage.
Closeout Technique
Even when he isn’t making cross-court defensive plays, Cooper can be an impactful defender. His quickness, athleticism, timing, and instincts allow him to be just as versatile of a defender in open space as he is in close-up situations. Let’s look at this clip against Arizona.
This play is going to start off with the ball along the free-throw line. Cooper is defending Jaden Bradley (#0 in white) in the weakside corner. Arizona has two players in the paint, which will require some help from Flagg if the entry pass is made. His man, Bradley, cuts along the baseline to present himself open in the strongside corner. Notice how Cooper recognizes Bradley making a move to the corner while still reading the eyes of the ball-handler.
Jaden does get the ball and gets into his shot in rhythm, which draws Flagg out from under the basket. Our guy displays stellar closeout technique here. Nice choppy steps as he draws near the shooter. Extends his contesting arms. Jumps to the shooting side of Bradley. Gives the shooter the required landing space.
Cooper times his contest perfectly. If you pause the film correctly, you can see that Bradley gets into his shooting motion when Flagg is just a step past the right block. The amount of ground covered by our guy is quite impressive.
Recovery Tools
The tools Cooper totes around can be just as useful when he is beaten by quick and creative ball-handlers, too. The clip above serves as a great example of this.
Flagg is in deny positioning as we join in on this play. Flagg helps off to agitate the post player in an attempt to cause a turnover or kick the ball out. Boston College’s big man, Chad Venning (#32 in white), kicks the ball out to Flagg’s man, Dion Brown (#1 in white).
Brown looks to take advantage of Cooper being “out of position” by slighting an up-fake, which causes our guy to close out hard on him. Looking to use Flagg’s momentum against him, Brown drives as Cooper’s feet are off the ground and establishes a step on him.
Look at how hard Flagg fights to get back into this play. His closeout on Brown almost serves as a defensive pump fake, as he is ever-so-slightly off the ground, which allows him to regain positioning on Brown’s drive. Maluach does help out on the play—as he should—but Cooper digs deep and extends to block the clutched layup that Brown attempts.
Rotational Contests
We saw a clip earlier where our guy was able to rotate over to make an interception. This time, let’s take a look at how his ability to scout the offense can result in rim protection.
Auburn’s Miles Kelly (#13 in blue) is working a pick-and-roll action with Johni Broome (#4 in blue) on the left wing. Cooper is defending Chris Moore (#5 in blue) in a help position. Once the action begins, Flagg starts to shade over to the strongside block. Kelly—the ball handler—drives to his right, where there is a wide lane for him to exploit.
If you pause the film two seconds in, you’ll see that Cooper puts himself in the perfect spot for help. He can step up to contest Kelly on his drive. He can recover to his man on a dump-off or bounce pass. He can sprint out to Broome if the ball is kicked out for a three. Once he sees Kelly continue his pursuit of the paint, he slides over to his man when he sees his teammate, Brown, is in position to help out on Broome for the kick-out.
Kelly opts to go for a layup, which requires him to rip the ball from his right to his left. Flagg sees all of this unfold while still denying his man a clean passing angle and rotates over to block the lefty layup.
It’s interesting that Cooper Flagg is 0.7% below average compared to past number one picks—especially when you consider he has a block percentage of 4.3%. Only four former top picks—Victor Wembanyama, Zion Williamson, Deandre Ayton, and Karl-Anthony Towns—have higher block percentages. Considering that they’re big men, apart than Zion, Cooper is swatting opponents’ shots at a ridiculous clip.
Curtains
It sounds extremely basic to say this, but Cooper Flagg is very good at basketball. Even the best prospects of all time have their warts. Is it easy to say that he isn’t a great shooter? Yes. But we need to remember that the best prospects are rarely the best shooters. Of all of the past number one picks, two of them shot over 35% from deep: Cade Cunningham and Markelle Fultz. Cade is just now rounding out into a formidable shooter, and Markelle has been one of the craziest “what-ifs” in NBA history.
Even in terms of efficiency, most of the perimeter-oriented number one picks weren’t considered “above average” in terms of effective field goal percentage. Cooper is solid in that metric, but nothing flashy. But when you consider his usage, Flagg is a tremendous decision-maker.
What else can Flagg do? If the answer is essentially “everything”, maybe the three-point percentage isn’t all that damning. Maybe his effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage will be fine.
Some of you might find yourself thinking, “Stephen, who is this article geared towards? We all think Cooper is good!”
Good is one thing, but elite is something different entirely. Elite—truly elite—is much more difficult to declare as a scout. It’s much more difficult to look past metrics and measurements to state that Cooper Flagg may be one of the best players in the NBA once he steps foot on the court. Maybe it is (or has been) just for me. But, I’m willing to bet that if I teetered on the notion of Flagg being among the elite of the elite, then others may have too.
Having just turned 18 in December, the question isn’t “should Cooper Flagg be taken with the first pick in the 2025 NBA Draft?” The question now is “how great can he be among the league’s best?” That, however, will have to be answered in another article.
Stephen’s Scouting Notes
What’s funny about working with my No Ceilings colleagues is that we’re ALL junkies regarding our film dives, and sometimes those film dives overlap. Rather than give you a second helping of Jamichael Stillwell and Amari Williams after Maxwell gave them some love, I’ll just let you know that I’ve loved them too. I almost emptied my notes in both of my pieces last week when I wrote about Collin Murray-Boyles and some recent games I scouted in person, but I do have some names I want to share some notes on:
One player that I don’t wholly know what to make of yet—but I do enjoy watching his film—is UCLA’s Tyler Bilodeau. He is a funky stretch four who plays very hard. In his first season playing for Coach Cronin, Bilodeau is scoring almost 15 PPG and grabbing close to 5 PPG. He has been able to play in various spots on the floor all while shooting about 40% from deep. Only a junior, it’s likely that we will continue to see more of him in college, but there seems to be some sort of a role in the NBA for a player of his efficiency and dimensions.
To take you on an international trip, Mohamed Diawara has shown some intriguing flashes while playing on a talented Cholet team. His three-point percentage has taken a good leap—up 15% from last season to 35%. He hustles every minute he is on the floor. He plays with great energy on defense. What stands out the most to me is the growth he’s demonstrated as a passer. There are a number of people in the league that have shown interest in him after a strong outing in the Young Star game in France, as Diawara finished with 22 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assists. Keep an eye out for more on him!
Alvaro Folgueiras is a name I’ve stumbled upon doing some digging and had on my watch list for a few weeks. He is now firmly in draft discussions among the initiated, having nearly posted a triple-double for Robert Morris against Oakland. Folgueiras is from Spain and played ball for DME Academy in Florida. He can shoot and has a quick release. He’s a competitor on the glass, and even shows some upside as a defender. He likely will be a returner next season, unless he has a monster rise—which, I suppose, wouldn’t be ridiculous. Should he return, I wouldn’t be surprised to see teams line up to lure him away from the Colonials. He’s got real game.
Speaking of real game, Brandon Maclin stood out to me in a very similar manner to that of Folgueiras. Maclin is a 6’5” guard for Radford and has a bag full of game. The handle is real, which he uses to run pick-and-rolls or create separation for himself. He has had some impressive games against Colorado State and Utah. He’s also had rougher games against Clemson, Pittsburgh, and South Carolina. That said, he is a good shooter and creator, with some athletic plays made on defense. What I like most about him as a guard is that, even when the shot isn’t falling, he is crashing the boards and creating for others. I wouldn’t be surprised if a smart college team is able to bring him on in a productive role.
He’s maybe a year or two away, but Owen Freeman from Iowa has shown some solid flashes in his sophomore run with the Hawkeyes. There are some strength and athleticism concerns, for sure, but Freeman does a good job of handling and initiating contact in the paint. He’s shooting around 36% from deep at the time of writing this, which is impressive. He is willing to set screens, but should strive to be more consistent on his footwork and commitment. He plucks seemingly every rebound available to him, which is immensely important. If Freeman can crash the boards, shoot, and block shots the way he does, I’m going to be patient on his development and keep tabs on him for a future bet.
For the sickos out there, here are some of the names that I will be watching soon:
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