Dalton Knecht: Bringing it All Together
Dalton Knecht: Bringing it All Together
From relative unknown to future NBA player, Dalton Knecht's game has moved him from "Point A" to knocking on the NBA's door.
Bringing it All Together
No matter what part of history you look at, humanity has long been fascinated with tales of ordinary folk caught up in remarkable circumstances. Even if the ending to whatever sort of literature is being used isn’t what one may deem happy, people are captivated by ordinary people overcoming all odds to achieve the impossible. Whether it is “David vs. Goliath” written about 2,500 years ago, or the legend of “Spiderman” written about 60 years ago, these tales resonate with people because they have qualities that are relatable, faults that are understandable, and accolades that are desirable.
A person at face value is enough to draw someone in, but their story is what compels someone to stay. That’s probably a little dramatic when talking about a basketball prospect but then again, maybe it’s adequately appropriate.
Before the season even kicked off, my colleague, cohost, and friend, Maxwell Baumbach, identified Dalton Knecht as a prospect to keep an eye on for his “No Stone Unturned 2023: The Wings, Part 3” column.
When writing about Dalton, Maxwell included excerpts from the interview he had with him—covering his football history, how he was five-foot-nothing in high school, the light recruitment process, and then going the JUCO route.
At Northeastern Junior College in Colorado, Dalton grew into a potent offensive monster. He then made the leap from JUCO to Division I hoops, where it took him two seasons at Northern Colorado to transition from role player to being a dominant scorer again.
Knecht made the decision to commit to play for coach Rick Barnes to improve his strength and defensive abilities—and he did just that.
The Crunch
The multiple leaps Knecht has made throughout his playing days to date are the stuff of legend. Now listed at 6’6” and 213 pounds, Dalton has grown his game in parallel with his physical growth and level of opponent. Looking at his production now, we’ll establish his baseline.
Minutes Percentage - 76.6
BPM - 9.9
Offensive Rating - 114.5
Usage Percentage - 29.8
Effective Field Goal Percentage - 53.8
True Shooting Percentage - 57.7
Offensive Rebounding Percentage - 2.8
Defensive Rebounding Percentage - 14.3
Assist Percentage - 13.4
Turnover Percentage - 10.6
Assist:Turnover- 1.1
Block Percentage - 2.4
Steals Percentage - 1.3
Free Throw Rate - 35.4
Dunks - 29
Two Point Percentage - 49.9 (171/343)
Three Point Percentage - 37.9 (93/234)
What those who have monitored Dalton for a while, the numbers even tell the story of the improved strength Knecht has had over the past two seasons. Playing with Tennessee this season, Dalton saw a +10 in his free throw rate, +63 in two-point attempts, +8 in attempted dunks, +81 in free throws attempted, and +5 in total blocks. This was against SEC athletes. His scoring prowess didn’t dip either, as he led the Volunteers in scoring by more than 350 total points.
Now, let’s look at how he stacked up against his peers:
This filter only applied two metrics: Minutes Percentage of at least 75% and BPM of at least 8.0. That narrowed the field down to just 34 players—and it’s quite the “who’s who”. Let’s see how else Dalton stands out:
This list consists of players who are widely regarded as first round prospects. What stands out here is that Dalton’s steal and block percentages have him in tow with Devin Carter—a bulldog of a defender, while his dunk numbers have him in a grouping with DaRon Holmes II—who comically has more than Knecht and Carter combined.
All three players have crazy production and a serious, NBA-level skill they provide for any organization. Production, usage, shooting efficiency, and defensive metrics all help Dalton stand out among his contemporaries. How does he look compared to those who have gone before him?
This is a collection of players who have been drafted by NBA teams that met the following criteria:
Minutes Percentage - 76.6
BPM - 9.9
Block Percentage - 2.4
Steals Percentage - 1.3
Dunks - 29
Three Point Percentage - 37.9 (93/234)
This was the same criteria applied to Dalton and current draft prospects, so the same logic also applies to Dalton Knecht and DaRon Holmes II. With this class being perceived as a weaker one, landing a player who has put up some similar metrics as Ja Morant, Keegan Murray, David Roddy, Mike Muscala, and Frank Kaminsky would be encouraging.
Obviously, Dalton doesn’t compare to any of those players positionally, but he produces and is an NBA-sized wing with scoring efficiency and has proved himself against several leaps in the level of competition he has faced. That’s why he is largely considered a lottery-level talent—if not higher.
The analytical check seems to say one thing, but now let’s see what the film has to say.
The Dive
To put into context how much Knecht has grown as a complete offensive weapon over the years, let’s take a look at how his total offensive efficiency has grown in tandem through each year—dating back to Synergy’s data of Dalton’s 2020 season with Northeastern Junior College:
2020-2021 | Northeastern Junior College : 87th Percentile (Excellent)
2021-2022 | Northern Colorado : 71st Percentile (Very Good)
2022-2023 | Northern Colorado : 90th Percentile (Excellent)
2023-2024 | Tennessee : 88th Percentile (Excellent)
In evaluating how a prospect can scale up in competition, it has to be nice to have dots to…connect! This general analysis of overall offense is a good data point to look at, but it doesn’t speak to the entire story. Take a look at the leap he made in overall defense from last season to this year:
2022-2023 | Northern Colorado : 22nd Percentile (Below Average)
2023-2024 | Tennessee : 94th Percentile (Excellent)
Defensive metrics can be very tricky to navigate; those metrics often speak more to how competent the team is instead of an individual player. Still, there has to be some credit given to Dalton for this leap. His defensive contributions at least served their intended purpose—to be more positive than a determent.
The Offense
The splits that we see between Knecht’s transition and halfcourt numbers are encouraging, as he graded out in the 70th percentile (Very Good) and in the 87th percentile (Excellent), respectively. Last season, Dalton was credited with 605 possessions, while he has been credited with 732 with the Volunteers. Coach Barnes trusting Dalton that much on a team full of upperclassmen speaks volumes to the trust between the two.
Attacking
The drives that are going to be used are solely those drives that resulted in And-1s. On the year, Dalton registered 15 And-1s, which is the same that he put up against the opponents he faced at Northern Colorado. He also did a good job of attacking the defense on either side of the floor, as his splits were roughly 51/45 in terms of which side of the court he preferred.
Against St. Peter’s, we see what makes Dalton a threat in transition. He gets the ball following a rebound, and pushes the break. There’s nothing fancy going on here—Dalton dribbles to his left, maintains it left following a slight hesitation, and hits the gas. Knecht shields the ball from Roy Clark (#4) and Corey Washington (#3), and converts the left-handed layup while drawing contact. Clark gives up two and sends a solid free-throw shooter to the line.
The threat that Dalton can give the defense with a live dribble is fairly unique compared to other wings in this draft class. Justin Edwards (#1) has declared for the 2024 NBA Draft, and was once thought of as a major player within the freshman crop. He picks up Dalton as he comes across halfcourt.
Because Dalton is versatile enough with the ball in his hands—while also being comfortable attacking either side of the defense—the defense has to be prepared to defend Knecht driving to the left, as he is dribbling with his left hand. There is also the threat of the Pick and Roll action looming (Dalton ranks in the 67th Percentile in Pick and Rolls; Very Good), with Jonas Aidoo (#0) positioning himself to Dalton’s left.
Edwards fights over the top of Aidoo’s screen. This is a show of respect for Dalton’s ability to attack left, as well as his ability to hit the deep ball off of the live dribble (He ranked in the 40th Percentile in dribble jumpers; average).
With Justin fighting over the top, our guy crosses to his right and accelerates. Knecht flies by the arm tackle from Rob Dillingham (#0) and finishes with his right over and through Aaron Bradshaw (#2). The senior takes the three freshmen to school.
In this matchup against Illinois, Dalton demonstrates some of his halfcourt prowess. Coming off of a cross screen, our guy gets in position on the left block and gets the ball. Defended by Terrence Shannon Jr.(#0), Knecht backs his man down with a few power dribbles.
Knecht picks up his dribble, goes to an up-and-under, and converts another right-handed layup with contact. This is an example of how well Dalton plays with some level of physicality.
Shooting
It would have been easy to start with the shooting for the film dive. But, after looking after at Knecht’s ability to make plays off the bounce, the shooting output seems to be even more impressive.
Dalton is going to be classified as a shooter—despite the fact that there is footage suggesting he is capable of more. There are worse things that he could be called, though—especially when he is a heck of a shooter. Knecht ranked in the 79th percentile (Very Good) on all jumpers, and ranked in the 88th percentile (Excellent) on catch-and-shoot looks.
In Tennessee’s final game of the year against Purdue, Dalton gets a very simple but important bucket here. The Vols get the ball across the court and get into their offense. Santiago Vescovi (#25) swings the ball to Zakai Zeigler (#5), who then kicks it to Knecht. Looking at this play, it seems incredibly likely that Dalton is going to shoot before he catches it. And it’s apparent as to why.
As Zeigler catches the ball, Fletcher Loyer (#2) communicates to Braden Smith (#3) to switch assignments. Dalton recognizes the switch—as does Zakai—and Zakai hits our guy immediately. There isn’t a crazy amount of time to get the shot off, but Knecht doesn’t need much. Easy three points.
Off ball movement is very important for shooters. That isn’t a revelation, but it’s true nonetheless. New addition to the transfer portal, Sam Walters (#24), has the pleasure of containing one of the most potent collegiate perimeter threats, and gets taken to class.
Sam is on Dalton, and Dalton is away from the action that is being run Jahmai Mashack (#15) and Josiah-Jordan James (#30). Knecht has obviously been around the block, and pulls the wool over the freshman’s eyes. In the midst of the action being ran, Dalton looks as if he is making a baseline sprint to the right corner.
Jonas Aidoo does an amazing job of looking disinterested in the play happening away from him, all the while he is setting up a flair screen for our guy. As Walter is trying to stick with Knecht, our guy plants his foot and makes a sharp to back to the left wing.
This subtle sell of where he is going is savvy and leads to an easy three points.
Knecht’s sense of knowing where to be and when to be there seems to be on display at all times. Here’s another example of that against South Carolina.
Tennessee gets into a quick handoff and then into a drag screen at the top of the key. Once Dalton gets past the two screens set for him, he goes on the attack—drawing the attention of Josh Gray (#33) and Ta’Lon Cooper (#55). Dalton sees the defense collapse on him and kicks the ball to Zakai. Zakai drives to the paint to capitalize on the out-of-position defense. Gray and Cooper focus their attention onto Zeigler, which allows Knecht to slip to the right corner that Zakai previously occupied.
Zeigler spins away from the defense and sees a wide-open Dalton Knecht all alone for a three. Our guy shot 46.7% on open catch-and-shoot looks, which was in the 83rd percentile (Excellent).
Knecht is a high IQ player, and has a keen sense of knowing the best way to present himself open to his teammates. It’s remarkable to see the trust his coaching staff and teammates have in him regardless of the situation.
Knecht had 19 games on the season where he scored over 20 points, and eight games where he scored over 30. This game against North Carolina was his first game he scored over 30, with 37 points on the night. He shot 4-of-8 from deep, and this shot was one of the more impressive attempts.
During the baseline inbound play, Dalton has a screen set for him to catch the ball in the same-side corner. Zeigler hits Knecht in the corner, and he lets it fly. The amount of confidence our guy has in his shot is apparent. The screen set for Dalton wasn’t spectacular, but it did give some slight separation. Seth Trimble (#7) fights hard to get back into the play and gives a great contest. Despite the effort, Knecht is able to do something that he has done 218 times at the D-1 level: hit the three.
The Defense
With shooters that are going pro, the immediate thing people want to know is how well they can defend. Historically speaking—and this is putting it lightly—defense wasn’t really a positive for Dalton Knecht. As discussed in the discussion he had with Maxwell, he was very aware of this and wanted to improve the defense and his strength. These improvements would take him from “just another college scorer” to real NBA prospect. That is what we have seen.
Again, defensive metrics aren’t perfect. No metrics are. Even if his numbers are indicative of the team’s success, he played a major part in that success.
The defensive metrics are as follows:
Spot Ups- 90th Percentile (Excellent)
Pick and Roll Ball Handler- 74th Percentile (Very Good)
Isolation- 65th Percentile (Very Good)
In this game against South Carolina, Dalton does a good job of keeping himself in the play the entire time. The Gamecocks do a good job of moving the ball around the perimeter and getting into a pick-and-roll. Dalton’s assignment, Zachary Davis (#12), is in the corner, which puts him in a help role.
Meanwhile, Ta’Lon Cooper and Collin Murray-Boyles (#30) are running the action. Their defenders, Vescovi and Aidoo switch, which gives South Carolina the advantage with CMB posting on Santiago. Dalton sees this and helps off his assignment—a 25% three-point shooter—to help deny a clean entry pass from Cooper.
Cooper then has to get the ball to Davis. Knecht goes from helping on the block to closing out on his man. Dalton chops his feet and contests the shot enough to bother it. This rotation doesn’t produce a stat, but denying the mismatch in the paint by helping off a below-average shooter was the correct move made by Dalton.
For a player who is an offensive dynamo, Knecht has made a mini-evolution into a smart defender. The prior clip showed a keen understanding of the scouting report of his opponents, but this seemingly simple play absolutely stands out in a similar manner.
Under Coach Nate Oats, Alabama has been routinely praised for their offensive philosophy. Anytime their team crosses the court, defenses have to be prepared for anything at any portion of the shot clock.
Mark Sears (#1) brings the ball across halfcourt and runs a quick pick and roll with Grant Nelson (#2). Sears drives left, and hits Aaron Estrada (55). Estrada then moves to ball to Rylan Griffen (#3), who is Knecht’s assignment. What Dalton does in response to his man can easily go unnoticed.
Griffen is a skilled shooter, shooting just under 40% from deep on 10.8 three pointers per 100 possessions. Dalton is aware that Rylan has a quicky trigger and jumps to contest the shot before it’s in motion.
It’s easy to count jumping prior to the shot being released as a bad play, but against this matchup it’s smart. Tennessee realizes that Griffen is a marksman who has only driven on approximately 15% of his total possessions. It’s more likely that he would have shot the three—and very likely that shot goes in.
The negative connotations that are associated with the “good team defender” tag come to light in this clip from Dalton’s game against Texas A&M. Wade Taylor IV (#4) is covered by Vescovi at the beginning of this clip, but runs a quick action to force the defense to switch. This gets Knecht onto Taylor.
Wade gets Dalton at the top of the key, with a ton of space to attack the paint if/once he can get the step on the defender. After two moves, Taylor hits the gas against our guy, who tries to keep up. Knecht isn’t bereft of athleticism—he’s a legit athlete—but Wade is as quick as a hiccup. Dalton just can’t lift quickly enough in a state of recovery against speedy guards.
Matched up against Tennessee, we get to see how Knecht looks against Tramon Mark (#12). Now Mark scored over 16 points per game on the season, posting splits of 48/36/80. The Vols held Tramon to 12 points on 40% shooting from the floor—33% from deep. Our guy, Dalton, did a solid job of contributing to the rough shooting night for Mark.
In this clip, Tramon gets the ball on the right wing and looks to take Dalton off of the bounce. Makhi Mitchell (#15) sets a ghost screen on Knecht and then runs to the rim. Dalton does a good job of not trying to fight the screen before it gets there. As Tramon drives left, he decelerates and pulls back from his attack.
Knecht stays with Mark, and gets back into a solid defensive position. Tramon looks to find a new angle to attack, drives left, and pulls up for the middy at the left elbow. Dalton stays with his man and is able to impact the shot. Mark misses long to account for the great contest from Knecht.
To be a “good team defender” on the wing, a player has to be able to defend someone who can do some creation. Dalton being able to hang with Mark helps in the belief that he can do that.
Mark taking Dalton in isolation is one thing, but seeing how Knecht can handle some pick-and-roll or handoff actions can do wonders in his perceptions on that end. Let’s look at this matchup against LSU.
Knecht starts this possession off by guarding the LSU big man, Will Baker (#15). LSU’s guard, Mike Williams (#2) dribbles through a few screens, which results in Dalton being matched up on him. Williams kicks the ball to Tyrell Ward (#15), who drives and draws in the defense. Ward gets the ball back to Williams and gets into a fun action to evaluate Dalton’s defense.
His original assignment, Baker, comes up from the left block to the free-throw line. Mike gets Will the ball, who gets into a handoff stance—where he simultaneously hands the ball to Williams and screens Knecht.
Feeling as if there is enough separation, Williams receives the handoff and gets into his shooting motion. Mike is a 37% three-point shooter, so Dalton knows he has to fight to contest the shot. Our guy goes under the screen, establishes a good jumping foundation, and uses his length to block the shot.
The other side of Dalton’s defensive coin is shown here against Saint Peter’s during March Madness. Now, let’s pretend his assignment isn’t Brent Bland (#1). Instead, let’s assume Bland is a league-average NBA shooter (he’s a 30% shooter from deep, if you’re curious). With the stage set, let’s watch the footage.
The clip starts with Latrell Reid (#0) with the ball on the left wing. Reid swings it to Roy Clarke (#4), who then dribbles towards Dalton’s assignment, Bland.
The ball is handed off, which obstructs Knecht’s path to his man. He is forced under the action, giving Bland plenty of space to get his shot off. One could argue this play could have been switched, but it wasn’t. One could argue that giving this shot up to Brent isn’t a bad outcome—he just made the shot.
Those all seem logical at face value, but projecting his future NBA assignments leave plays like this room for more scrutiny.
Curtains
It seems a little humorous that there really needs to be a “sell” for a player like Dalton. He’s coming off a career-high in points per game, with just under 22. He posted splits of 46/40/77. He’s proven that he can elevate his productivity and efficiency with each leap in the level of competition.
Beyond being offensively gifted, Knecht has shown the propensity to improve on the other side of the ball. In just one season, Dalton added functional strength and made major strides on the defensive side of the ball. This newfound strength also aided his offensive versatility in terms of finishing, driving, and rebounding.
It wouldn’t be wild to project that Dalton should have been a Top 5 pick when the dust settles in this year’s draft. He isn’t the sexiest choice of the names in circulation, as he is a super senior. He also isn’t the prototypical high flyer, or a dominant ball-handler. But Knecht is a proven commodity. There are data points that suggest that his trajectory will continue to rise, in spite of the “progress isn’t always linear” draft community tag.
Dalton built upon his strengths at Tennessee and improved on his weaknesses. With the draft on the horizon, Knecht has brought it all together at the right moment.
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Thanks for your detailed work. I will read it thoroughly later in the day. But ever since I started watching Dalton I became all-in. I had a bias because of his age but realized his improvement made it irrelevant especially in a mediocre draft. What really sold me is in his last game how easily he drove by his defenders, not settling for a long shot. That will translate to the NBA and I believe makes him a top 5 pick, hopefully for the Thunder who will have to trade up for him. My appreciation again. Chuck