DaRon Holmes II: More than Meets the Eye
DaRon Holmes II: More than Meets the Eye
As a center, Holmes II has transformed his game and expanded his range on both ends of the floor. Ultimately, what are the possible outcomes for his game at the NBA level?
I’ve written at No Ceilings long enough that it’s time for a rare lore drop about my life that will loosely but entertainingly connect to my article. As a person, I’ve always found a hobby or interest worthy of my hyperfixation, even when I was a child. I would absorb everything I could, leech it dry of all knowledge and interest, and then move on to my next passion.
The laundry list of my past passions before basketball includes Thomas the Tank Engine, dinosaurs, Legos, ninjas, Transformers, video games, Warhammer, ultimate frisbee, rap music, and snowboarding, to name a few. While some have lasted the test of time and patience for me, others are fond relics that I remember with reverence, even if I don’t pursue them with the same zeal that I used to.
Transformers are one of those bygone obsessions. I had numerous toys with transforming functions, watched as many of the cartoons as possible, and “convinced” my parents to take me to each of the original trilogy of Michael Bay explosion-fest films on opening day. While I never ventured into the territory of the super fan, I got as close as I could’ve as a pre-teen.
It’s hard to pin down what drew me to Transformers over other toys. I loved the eclectic science-fiction background of the conflict between good and evil. Each of the respective Transformers had catchy names and looked cool to my untrained eyes. Also, the simple fact that the toys could go from car to figure in a few button pushes was a modern marvel back in the day.
Reflecting on my interest in Transformers, I most appreciate the characters and their hidden talents. The same sort of thing has kept me feverishly invested in basketball for more than a decade, as each prospect's stories and unique skills keep me coming back for more, especially with draft scouting.
That leads me to DaRon Holmes II. As a prospect, he’s been on my radar since last year, when I had him on my pre-No Ceilings first round draft board. On the surface, there’s a lot to like about Holmes II’s game. Still, after delving deeper into his game, I feel more confident about him than I did last year due to his incremental improvements and the new levels he can unlock if he transforms his game at the NBA level.
DaRon Holmes II in his Optimal Prime
At an imposing 6’10” in shoes with a 7’ wingspan, DaRon Holmes stands out amongst the crowds of players in the Atlantic 10 conference. He’s a bit thin at his listed weight of 220 pounds, but that lower weight plays into his lithe athleticism. Holmes II is highly skilled due to his touch on shots and well-coordinated as an athlete, which he shows on quick slips to the rim followed by calamitous dunks rained down on the heads of would-be defenders.
DaRon Holmes II’s stock has been slowly simmering since high school, but he’s consistently improved his game and built himself up as a player. He bounced around at the high school level, attending Montverde for half of his senior year before returning to his home state of Arizona. He chose Dayton over offers from Arizona, Tennessee, LSU, and other traditional basketball schools, blazing his path as a recruit.
As the highest-ranked recruit in Dayton history, Holmes II came to the Flyers under immense pressure to succeed, which he’s done so in each of his three years. Holmes II has led Dayton in scoring and blocked shots each year and, as a junior, was named as both the Atlantic 10’s Conference Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year. He also helped lead Dayton back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since the 2016-2017 season while powering the Flyers to their first win in March Madness since the 2014-2015 campaign.
Holmes II brings an impressive statistical profile when considering big-man prospects. He’s improved his scoring each year, topping out this season at the 20.4 points per game mark that paced the Flyers. Holmes II also averaged 8.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 2.1 blocks, and 0.9 steals per game, filing several gaps for Dayton during the year.
As you dig deeper, Holmes II’s case gets even more robust. While his two-point percentage dipped below 60% this year, he took a career-high 83 three-pointers this year and canned 38.6% of them. When combined with his 71.3% free-throw percentage, which came on 8.8 attempts per game, it shows that the potential that Holmes II showed as a shooter became much more actualized in his junior season.
Last year, Holmes II went through the pre-draft process and ultimately chose to return not only to college but to Dayton instead of transferring to another school. Holmes II wasn’t a consensus first-round prospect, which led him back to school, but that’s not true anymore. He’s currently ranked 27th on the consensus No Ceilings draft board and has broken through on other mainstream boards, solidifying his draft stock.
There’s a lot to love about Holmes II’s game and how it developed in his junior season, but there are other areas where he’ll need to improve further to stick in a consistent NBA role. I’ll dig into both below while also looking at what Holmes II must do to transform from a clear top option in college to a more specialized version of himself at the next level.
Awesome Autobot-like Abilities
DaRon Holmes II is a joy to watch on both ends, as he’s light on his feet and decisive with his moves. He was routinely doubled at Dayton during his three years, but the school put enough shooters around him to give him the airspace to dominate teams inside the arc.
Per Synergy, on a monstrous 226 attempts at the rim, Holmes II shot a sterling 67.3%. That’s a great number that comes from a few key areas: his post acumen, ruthlessness in dunking the ball, and mastery of slipping and rolling to the rim out of Dayton’s pick-and-roll.
Holmes II got 6.0 post touches per game, which he used significantly and efficiently. He shot 47.8% on his post-ups, but combined with his 34.5% free-throw rate on post plays, he was graded out as “Very Good” in Synergy’s PPP rankings. Holmes II has a deep bag of post moves, from quick drop steps and soft hooks to strong seals and bruising drives. Whether over his left or right shoulder, there was little a defensive player could do to stop Holmes II due to his touch and bevy of counters to deploy.
The touch that Holmes II showed on shots throughout his career was always part of the theoretical appeal of his shooting but an underrated aspect of his talented finishing. The best big men bring a blend of finesse and ferocity to their interior scoring, and Holmes II is the next in that line. He’s shouldered a heavy load in his three years at Dayton, which gives a sample size large enough to prove that he’s an adept post-up player.
Although the finesse is fun, we must sink our teeth into the ferocity. DaRon Holmes II is a powerful dunker, using both his long reach and upper body strength to squash down dunks on the heads of anyone who stood in his way. He crushed 73 slams this year. Even though that was a step down from the 89 and 83 dunks he had in past seasons, the forceful finishing package Holmes II has to jam at the rim is a sight to marvel at and behold.
When you watch him move around the court, Holmes II is an NBA athlete, but his spryness on his slams hints at him not just being an average athlete in the center position. There’s both a burst to get downhill, followed by force to finish through contact, which makes Holmes II look like the type of large athlete that NBA teams crave for their modern schemes on both ends of the floor.
It would be moot for Holmes II if he couldn’t fit in as a screener in the pick-and-roll, one of the most commonly utilized offensive concepts in the NBA, but that’s the opposite. Holmes is a great roller to the rim, slipper of screens, and popper out of the pick-and-roll, expanding his future role on offense at the NBA level.
Rolling to the rim, per Synergy, was Holmes II's second-most frequent play type in his junior season. He had a “Very Good” ranking on his dives to the rim, shooting 52.0% on 123 attempts rolling toward the basket. He also showed off his speed and timing to finish lay-ups and dunks.
Holmes II could stand to set some more solid screens to free up the ball handler, but he has a preternatural sense of when to speed toward the basket and when to bounce outside for a shot. He only took 83 threes on the season, but one of the best shots for Holmes was his pick-and-pop shot from deep. Holmes II displayed the quick release and fluid mechanics that have always made him a fascinating shooter and punished defenses whether or not they closed out on him.
Holmes II’s versatility in his screening package already gives him a clear role at the NBA level. It’s hard to counter what he does as a screener because he’s made himself an efficient option inside or outside the arc. When combined with his positives on defense, the outlines of a starting-caliber player quickly emerge.
Holmes II is a strong rebounder on both ends of the floor, again the skill that will win him minutes early in his career. He has a quick second jump on the offensive end and uses his length and strength to chase down boards on defense. Holmes II grabbed at least 1.5 offensive rebounds in his three seasons at Dayton and tightened his grip on the defensive end this year with a 23.7% defensive rebounding percentage.
For a player like Holmes II with prototypical center length but not weight, the desire to get his nose dirty on the boards is a vital swing skill to monitor. In a more spaced-out system, Holmes II could see his rebounding numbers increase due to his disciplined and dogged approach to gobbling up boards.
While rebounding is more of a mundane skill, shot-blocking is not, and DaRon Holmes II has been a nasty swatter at the college level for his whole career. He’s had block percentages of 8.7%, 6.5%, and 7.2% in his career, all of which are stellar numbers that display his talent at rejecting shots. When watching the tape, it’s easy to sit back and chuckle at the disrespectful treatment that Holmes II gives to unwitting lay-up attempts in his vicinity.
I wouldn’t consider Holmes II a defensive anchor for reasons I’ll dive into in the next section, but his reach and timing on shot attempts will serve him well at the next level. Several teams could use his size and secondary shot-blocking to cement their lineups next year, whether off the bench or in a starting five.
With clear skills that will translate quickly to the NBA level, Holmes II is one of the more pro-ready prospects in the 2024 NBA draft. He’ll have a role in some team’s big man rotation, but whether that will start on supporting in a bench role will depend on how much he invests in the finer details of his game.
Decepticon-like Details and Detractions
Despite the positive buzz surrounding DaRon Holmes II as a junior, he needs to tweak a few places in his game to succeed. With so much polish as a screener and interior presence, Holmes II has a clear role, but he could expand on that with some adjustments.
Offensively, Holmes II has a great touch right at the rim and a good shooting stroke from deep but lacks an in-between game to change the pace. He doesn’t necessarily need one right now, but it puts a definite cap on his ceiling as an offensive player.
Holmes II shot only 40.9%, per Synergy, on his 22 mid-range jumpers, which speaks to both his tough efficiency and lack of sample size to make a broader claim. He mostly took contested jumpers when the shot clock was winding down, but there are hints at a suitable post-fade that Holmes II has at his disposal.
There won’t be many, if any, teams that will willingly let Holmes II isolate for a mid-range jumper at the NBA level. Out of the post, however, Holmes II could knock down enough shots to earn some designated post touches in a team’s offense. Another reason for optimism comes from Holmes II’s free-throw percentage, which has improved incrementally from 58.6% to 66.9% to 71.3% as a junior.
A more significant concern in DaRon Holmes II’s game is his proclivity for turnovers. He did muster a positive assist-to-turnover ratio this year, but he’s averaged more than two a game this and last year. When watching Holmes II, there isn’t a clear place where he gets a lot of turnovers, and that’s the problem.
It would be one thing if it were just an issue of poor ball-handling, weakness with the ball in his hands, lackadaisical drives that resulted in charges, or poorly timed or paced passes. The bigger issue is that it’s a concoction of all of the above. Instead, it’s a thorny ask of “don’t turn the ball over as much in general,” which seems more like a systemic issue in Holmes II’s game than a quick fix.
Holmes II has some legitimate gripes on the defensive end outside of his offensive warts. He can generate turnovers, as evidenced by his 1.8% steal percentage this season, but most of Holmes II’s steals come by being tall, not from making the right play. His length, which helps him swat shots, is a major boon for disrupting passing lanes and swarming a ball-handler on a double team.
Outside of steals, Holmes II isn’t a particularly compelling defender. He wouldn’t often guard isolations of perimeter players, but when he does, it’ll be a weakness for the defense. Holmes II doesn’t display the same type of fluid movement on defense that he does on offense, often lunging and lurching on closeouts that bend the defense in all the wrong ways.
It’s an odd dichotomy; while Holmes II is a great mover on offense, he looks less engaged as a defender in space. He won’t be billed as a switchable four by any means, but his issues with perimeter defense keep him from earning a reputation as a stretch four. A stretch five is more in line with what Holmes II can do right now, but the lack of switchability does put a clear ceiling on his game.
Transform and Roll Out: Scaling Up to the NBA
With Holmes II’s floor and ceiling established, it’s worth exploring how he could reasonably expand his game to change the dialogue on his future potential. You can’t teach Holmes II’s height, athleticism, or touch, but he could improve some key areas and see tangibly more prominent roles on a future team.
Let’s start with his passing. Bluntly, Holmes II will never be a Nikola Jokic or Domantas Sabonis, but that’s alright—few players are. Instead, Holmes II will likely be more of a play finisher than a creator. Even still, having the ability to make plays for others will help him see more time on the floor and keep his team in the win column.
Holmes II had a positive assist-to-turnover ratio for the first time in his college career. It was only 1.16, but it looked to solidify his passing flashes throughout his career. Most of Holmes II’s assists came from savvy skips out of the high post, where he flicked passes to shooters in corners and cutters to the rim.
The most useful expansion of Holmes II’s passing abilities would be reducing his lazy turnovers. He’s shown enough touch and velocity to snake skip to open teammates, but he remains a limited ball mover. Holmes II certainly won’t have the same usage at the NBA level, so he’ll need to be more judicious with the ball in his hands.
Another area where Holmes II can succeed is as a spot-up shooter from deep. A good amount of Holmes II’s “spot-up” attempts come from the pick-and-pop, but I’m more concerned about his shooting off the catch without setting screens. Being a 6’10” sniper away from a primary action in an offense is the next evolution of who Holmes II is as a shooter, and you can see the vestiges of his improvements this year.
Holmes II’s three-point shooting is deceiving due to this year's small sample size. It’s hard to draw any tangible conclusions on a player who attempts less than 100 shots of any kind, but when coupled with the fact that Holmes had a combined 26 attempts from deep in his first two years at Dayton, Holmes II’s shooting appears to be the actual swing skill for his future role at the NBA level.
There’s a counter that Holmes II could lean more into to transform his game, but it would require better ball-handling. Due to his long strides and stretchy reach, Holmes II is a dangerous driver of the basketball going downhill. He didn’t deploy his drives often, but a few times a game, Holmes II would pump fake a spot-up three and then crash into the lane for a thunderous slam or slick finish.
If Holmes II can add this move to his arsenal and establish himself as a driving threat, his offensive complexion changes. He could support more on-ball reps, would be an impossible cover as a screener, and would demand more defensive attention than many standard stretch centers.
Holmes II has two crucial defense aspects that could swing his minutes in a playoff series. The first is his pick-and-roll defense, while the second is his general interior defense. The bar for coverage centers to run in a pick-and-roll setting is only rising in the NBA. The only centers that can strictly play drop coverages are the ones that put a cement cap over the rim with their impeccable interior defense.
At Dayton, Holmes II played primarily in a shallow-to-deep drop coverage. He would occasionally hedge or trap a weaker ball-handler. Still, more often than not, Holmes II would drop between the free-throw line and the basket to deter any would-be drivers in the Atlantic 10.
He’s developed into a solid drop defender, but if Holmes II wants to be a consistent starter, he’s got to be more than that. His effort and technique on closeouts make it unlikely that he will become a switchy defender. Outside of his shot-blocking, his play as an interior defender is mainly limited to guarding post players, which he won’t do as often in the NBA.
It leaves Holmes II with a Catch-22 situation regarding improving his pick-and-roll defense: Can he become a switchable defender, or can he develop into a threatening interior presence? Neither seems likely, leaving Holmes II as a flawed but talented defensive center.
Being able to guard the rim and in space are now the requisites of a top-tier center, which leaves Holmes II in a precarious position. None of his defensive issues will keep him from getting drafted, as he’s a great offensive weapon, but his truly transformational skill is his defense.
Prospect in Disguise: Who Holmes Can Be
Like any good Transformer, there’s more than meets the eye with DaRon Holmes II. To the naked eye, Holmes II is a solid center prospect with clear offensive and defensive skills but a lower ceiling than most. Below the surface, however, there’s the potential for him to be more than just a rotational big man and to become more instead.
If Holmes II can make these strides on both sides of the ball, there’s a clear archetype of a good starter on a good team. However, if these issues consistently hamstring him, he could find himself as a spot starter due to his flaws. More likely, Holmes II will grade out as an average to above-average center prospect who can start for several teams but won’t be an actual needle mover in either direction.
In this draft class, there’s clear positional value for a player like Holmes II who can immediately step in and play a role for a team. This is enough for me, amongst others, to rate him as a first round draft prospect, even though he might have a lower ceiling than other centers in this draft, like Alex Sarr and Donovan Clingan.
For my money’s worth, Holmes II will either be one of the better backup centers in the league or a solid starter for a middling team in his rookie year. He has the tools to play major minutes if need be, but he also has the precise skillset to bully bench big men and create advantages for his team with his versatile scoring package.
As a passionate NBA draft fanatic, I’ve seen my share of bigs who can and can’t contribute to a winning team. There are still some holes in his game that he’ll have to stitch up, but based on his skill set, DaRon Holmes II deserves to hear his name in the first round this year and play a consistent role in the NBA.