Detroit Pistons 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Preview
Rowan and Albert take a stab (or seven) at what the Pistons could do after they lagged in the lottery standings once again.
Rowan: No, you aren’t stuck in a Groundhog Day situation: the Detroit Pistons are again picking at #5. Despite having some of the worst lottery odds over the past few seasons, the Pistons have again been crunched by the ping-pong ball numbers and have slipped in the lottery standings for the third straight year.
If you believe the preseason spiel, it wasn’t supposed to be this way for Detroit. With the hiring of Monty Williams and the return of a healthy Cade Cunningham, the team was eager to exit their lottery woes. Instead, despite Cunningham turning in a healthy season, the Pistons again finished with the worst record in the league and little to show. The team ranked 25th in defensive rating and 27th in offensive rating, two putrid marks reflecting how disjointed the team was on both ends of the floor, exemplified by setting the consecutive loss record for the NBA.
Jaden Ivey started the year on the bench and never blossomed or got into a rhythm. Ausar Thompson screamed out of the gates, looking like a future defensive wing, but soon rode the pine due to his shooting struggles. Jalen Duren improved his counting stats but had some defensive issues, while the veteran cadre of Isaiah Stewart, James Wiseman, and Bojan Bogdanovic didn’t do much to help. Marcus Sasser had some positive minutes, but neither he nor Killian Hayes could do enough to elevate the backcourt.
The one bright spot for the team was Cunningham, who looked like a true young star trapped on a mediocre team. He upped his efficiency from two- and three-point range got to the free-throw line more often, had a better-than-2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio, and showed the type of leadership the Pistons need to escape their purgatory. While he wasn’t perfect and did miss a few games, it’s clear that Cade should be the piece that Detroit builds around.
Where are you with the Pistons, Albert? Are there other players you think played well enough to factor into plans for the team? And what types of players might the Pistons want to target to build their ideal roster around Cunningham?
Albert: The roster could use some work. As much as we may want to get into the roster, I feel like the conversation should start with Monty Williams and the front office of the Pistons. Troy Weaver was let go recently with a new regime led by the Alaskan Assassin (Trajan Langdon); who knows what that might lead to? Monty Williams is getting paid over 13 million per season, and there are real question marks about whether or not he’s the answer as the coach with this young and volatile roster. People had some real questions about him and how he chose to utilize Jaden Ivey last season, amongst a plethora of confusing decisions. Is there a world where Langdon and the front office look to make a change at Head Coach? We shall see.
The team had the worst record in the league last season and ended up with the fifth pick in the draft as a prize for all of their losses. At this point, I don’t think it would be a stretch to say that there are no “untouchables” on this roster besides Cade Cunningham.
I know that might be spicy for some, considering the presence of Ausar Thompson, Jalen Duren, and Jaden Ivey, but I don’t think it’s that crazy. Who knows how the new regime feels about the young guns and their vision for rebuilding this roster?
That said, the Pistons can build a contender with some of the aforementioned young pieces. Guys like Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson are easy fits next to Cade. They both bring a ton of value without needing the ball much. Ausar was able to flash a ton of defensive ability and connectivity on offense. The shooting continues to be an area of improvement for him, as his 48.2/18.6/59.7 splits indicate. As unsightly as those numbers are, Ausar will not be relied upon to take many shots and will be given the time to develop that area of his game. Duren is a beast on the boards, as he had a 33.0% defensive rebound percentage and will always be a threat as a pick-and-roll roller. Ivey is still a bit of a question mark, but I don’t hate the fit. I still believe that having another ball-handler and driver of the ball, like Ivey, next to a guy like Cade makes sense.
I know you mentioned Sasser in passing, Rowan, but Marcus Sasser is awesome—a ferocious competitor who brings so much intensity to both sides of the floor. Sasser is a solid backup guard option for now, but if the Ivey experiment never pans out, Sasser could be a great option next to Cade due to his off-ball abilities and what he brings on the defensive end of the floor. That being said, this roster should be open to it all. I know I just went on a whole rant about the upside of this team, but the harsh reality is that this team was terrible, and they should be looking at every spot besides Cade for improvement. The strategy heading into this draft is simple: draft good players and worry about fit later. I did you no favors with my answer, but the fifth pick is still toward the top of the draft, and there will be tons of good players available. If you had to narrow down your board to five guys, what would your board look like for the Pistons?
Rowan: You did me a favor by cutting through the noise to address the elephant in the room: no one other than Cade Cunningham has done enough to justify being a cornerstone moving forward. All of Ivey, Sasser, Thompson, and Duren, to name a few, have their strengths, but a fallacy that bad NBA teams sometimes play into is that they don’t recognize when to cut their losses and reinvigorate their rosters. I think all four players, as mentioned earlier, can have great NBA careers; it just may not be in Detroit.
Given Detroit’s lack of entrenched players, it’s both easier and harder to narrow down what they could need. Does the Pistons board go for truly “best player available,” or are they a bit more judicious about which positions may be harder to fill around Cade? Although I like several young Pistons, my personal Pistons board will overlap due to the talented players that the team could bring in.
From a pure talent perspective, the top of my Detroit-based board is Donovan Clingan. While he’s gotten some Top 3 buzz, there aren’t clean fits for him after Washington and Atlanta, who, by most accounts, seem locked in on Alex Sarr or Zaccharie Risacher. That leaves Clingan as a potential steal lower than many pundits are prognosticating him to land.
Before you speak, I know what you’ll say, but what about Jalen Duren? Well, Duren is a good lob threat and a monster athlete, but he was a mediocre defender with some limitations in terms of size. Clingan is a behemoth by the bucket, swamping opposing drivers with his size and reach while also serving as a sneakily skilled big man on offense. This pick would necessitate a trade for Duren, as both are natural centers, but that could free up both him and Clingan to reach their ceilings.
Clingan is a borderline elite but risky prospect by the tape and the numbers. Per BartTorvik, across all freshmen and sophomores this year, Clingan put up some impressive advanced stats: #1 in BPM, #3 in block percentage, 11th in defensive rebounding percentage, 13th in turnover percentage, 17th in defensive rebounding percentage, and 24th in True Shooting Percentage. Those are all amazing marks that crystalize the vision for what Clingan can be at the NBA level.
Next to a skilled creator like Cade Cunningham, Clingan could focus on a few areas and dominate those early on in his NBA career. He’d be responsible for scoring in the paint on one end and shutting it down on the other, which he’s prepared to do. The biggest concern for Clingan is minutes, given he only played 22.5 minutes per game, but his injury issues seem a bit overblown compared to the promise of his skills.
If the Pistons don’t want to double up on centers, then why not at guard? This class may not have a more natural complementary guard prospect than Reed Sheppard, which isn’t a backhanded diss. Sheppard had some astronomical advanced stats and played out of his gourd on both ends of the floor to cap one of the most surprising one-and-done seasons in recent memory.
In hindsight, we shouldn’t have been too surprised. Sheppard is a smart player who’s played both guard spots and competes doggedly on defense. He probably won’t shoot over 50% from deep in the NBA, but defenses must respect his shot. That opens up his driving and kicking, important attributes for any secondary creator in the NBA. Playing next to Cade Cunningham would take the pressure off of each of them to be the sole creator on this Detroit team.
In the realm of offensively gifted players, what about Dalton Knecht? He’d be third on my Pistons-specific board as he fills a need for them and lets them take one more roll of the dice with their other crop of prospects. Despite the talents of Ivey, Thompson, Duren, and Sasser, the weakest overall aspect in that group is shooting from deep, no matter how good Sasser may be from out there.
So why not select a 6’7” shooter with a plus wingspan, good athleticism, and a flamethrower for an arm who shot 38.3% on 569 (!) threes over the last three seasons? Knecht will likely be a career role player, but having the right role players around Cunningham and the company might just be what unlocks the latent potential of each Detroit young player. Imagining the Pistons with just a foot or two more space due to Knecht’s external gravity is a pipe dream waiting to be unscrewed.
If Detroit prefers to gamble on a higher upside wing than Knecht, they may want to go for Matas Buzelis from the Ignite. Buzelis has the pedigree of a top prospect to go alongside his great length, height, and athleticism, but he didn’t have a banner year in the G League. He was stuck on a team with non-shooters while being expected to stripe from deep, only to have a tough shooting season and muddy his high school reputation as a three-point marksman.
Even if Buzelis doesn’t shoot particularly well, he still has much to offer to an NBA franchise. He’s a heady and strong defender, able to switch on the perimeter or contest shots at the rim. He’s also a downhill athlete who has the size to finish over others in transition. If the shot ever comes around, Buzelis could be the same sort of missing puzzle piece to the Pistons that makes every other one of their moves fall into place.
The last member of my abbreviated Pistons big board is Cody Williams. Williams played a great low volume in the first half of the season, showing his brilliance in bursts during Colorado’s sprint out of the gates. He never quite got right from an ankle injury, which isn’t his fault, but that led to his diminishing stock in the eyes of other draft evaluators.
Williams is still 6’8” in shoes with a 7’1” wingspan and vertical and horizontal pop. He’ll only fill out his thin frame, which should help him absorb contact, but he’s a dangerous shooter from deep and has the length to finish over would-be defenders. It may take a few years for him to develop the rest of his game, but Williams is the sort of high-risk, high-reward swing that Monty Williams and Trajan Langdon may need to hit on to ensure future success in Detroit.
Of those five players, who intrigues you most for the Pistons? Are there any players you struggle to see fit well in the Motor City on this Detroit team or the next? And are there any other players you’d have on your personal Pistons pentacle big board?
Albert: I love all the guys that you mentioned, especially Clingan and Knecht. Both guys make a ton of sense with this roster and would add dimensions that this team doesn’t have. I have a couple of other guys in mind, but Clingan is such an interesting prospect. I love what you said about the role that he’d be asked to play early on. Asking him to come in and just be a behemoth down low on both ends of the floor is interesting enough, but honestly, if that’s all that he had, then you’d much rather go with a guy like Zach Edey. Clingan is the better prospect and is viewed with much more upside because of what he may offer on offense with his playmaking and shooting ability.
In pre-draft workouts, Clingan has been showing off more of that outside jumper to teams to get them to believe in a world where he can knock down a good amount of them in the future. I wouldn’t bet all my Underdog Fantasy money on him one day becoming a dead-eye outside shooter. Still, if it is something that he can eventually add to his game, his ceiling is obviously up in a different stratosphere. It’s also important to highlight the passing with Clingan. Some may believe that stationary passing is becoming a bit of an overrated ability, but I still believe there’s value to that type of passing. Having a big who can catch from the nail and find cutters and shooters on the perimeter seems valuable to teams like the Nuggets, who have Nikola Jokic diming guys up from a standstill position. Even the Knicks found a lot of value in having a big player like Isaiah Hartenstein, who could make passes to cutters inside. Clingan is not as dynamic of a passer as Jokic is, but he has good vision, and you know he’ll be lethal in DHO actions like the Heat run with Bam Adebayo.
I hate the idea of a Clingan and Duren frontcourt pairing, but maybe Detroit could transition Duren into a role off of the bench, and he could come in and just rebound like a madman. Knecht is a really fun option because he brings something to the table that the Pistons desperately need: outside shooting. Knecht is not only a knockdown shooter but can really fill it up from anywhere on the floor. Some of the off-the-dribble stuff he showed off in his one season at Tennessee was insane and may even remind you of Devin Booker. I do not believe Knecht will be a Booker-level scorer, but he has remnants of Booker’s game in his arsenal and could become even more dangerous on the pro level as a scorer. Just imagine how much more fun this team becomes just by adding a guy like Knecht. I’d have no problem with the Pistons going with Knecht at #5.
The two other guys that I think are at least worth mentioning are Stephon Castle and Zaccharie Risacher. I’m not including them because I necessarily think they should be the pick for the Pistons, but they have to be discussed—especially Risacher. There is a world where he might fall to five, and if he does, he’d be a home run pick for the Pistons. Risacher would be an easy pick for the Pistons because of what he can already do and what he could one day become. His baseline floor is so high and would offer a ton of things that the Pistons need, like shooting and wing defense. Risacher has been a really effective shooter in France off the catch, is dynamic in transition, and would be a good connector as a passer on the wing. Risacher could fit in easily with the young stars they already have, as he doesn’t need the ball to impact the game. Risacher is also already an effective defender with great size. Risacher is one of this class's best off-ball and team defenders, showing great awareness and instincts on that end of the floor. Imagine a Cade, Ausar, Risacher, Duren, and Ivey lineup and how fun that group would be. I’m not saying they’d be very good, but the speed, playmaking, and defensive versatility of a lineup like that could be a ton of fun. Ausar and Risacher could become a terrifying defensive duo on the wing.
The Castle pick could be a little bit more difficult to see, but trust me, it’s not the craziest idea. Patience and belief would be at the core of even entertaining the idea of grabbing a guy like Castle. For Stehpon Castle to make sense on this roster, there are some things you must believe will happen for it to make sense. First, you have to believe that he will continue to develop as a shooter. I understand the numbers don’t look pretty when you look at his shooting splits of 47.2/26.7/75.5 this season. None of those numbers will blow you away, but context is always ridiculously important. Castle joined a veteran-laden UCONN team that gave Cam Spencer and Tristen Newton the keys to running the team. Castle was asked to play a role, fit in, and be a team player on both ends of the floor. Castle did exactly what he was asked to do and won a national championship this season. All that stuff is good. Now combine that with what we saw from him in high school, when he was a play-making, do-it-all wing. Castle may not have shot it great from outside in college, but just from the mechanics of his shot, there’s no reason to believe that he can’t improve.
Just imagine a tough, versatile wing with great size and underrated play-making ability—a winner who knows how to play a role but also has the upside to help run a team. He’s a guy who one day could be an above-average shooter from outside and could help Cade with play-making duties and lock down guys on the defensive end. How does that not sound intriguing? Some of you may wonder, well, what happens to Ivey and Sasser? As I mentioned earlier, everything has to be on the table at this point in the team’s development. If the new regime believes they have their answer with Ivey and others, they must make the best decision for the team's future. If they believe a guy like Castle could play next to Ivey, Sasser, and Ausar, they can also go that route. All of this should be entertained because of the type of talent Castle has. It may be hard to see it based on his one season in UConn, but the potential is there, and grabbing a dynamic wing like him who could really accentuate the abilities of Cade has to be explored.
Rowan: You brought up a lot of great points not only on the guys I brought up but also on both Risacher and Castle. You’re right on Clingan, since if he was just a big body who could do center things, he may not be worth the pick. Instead, the latent passing abilities you mentioned and the promise of potential shooting down the line make it a high-floor and ceiling pick. A center who can guard the rim and space the floor for Cade Cunningham is a dream come true.
For the same reason that a shooting version of Clingan would be so valuable, the shooting touch that Dalton Knecht brings would also be a major boon to Detroit, as you mentioned. The shot creation work you mentioned also keeps this pick from being a purely role-playing selection, as Knecht will only have more room to work at the next level. He also has great functional athleticism like Booker, in that he doesn’t jump out of the gym, but his vertical and horizontal speeds are solid.
I didn’t include Risacher initially because of how much buzz he’s gotten from the top four teams; if he starts to slide on draft night, though, those slides should stop in Detroit. His marksmanship from deep and defensive playmaking are all great complementary skills in the present, while he has the requisite size and shot-making chops to maybe grow into a star. Risacher is one of the few players that makes sense to cover the weaknesses of both Thompson and Duren while forming one of the most promising young frontcourts in the entire league.
As a Castle fan, I also see the vision with this pick, even if it’s a bit more controversial. Castle’s just a jumper away from being a true do-it-all player at 6’6”, which every team in the league could use. His secondary playmaking could soon be good enough to bend defenses after Cunningham attacks them, elevating all of Detroit’s gameplan elements. He also would take the weight off of Cade’s plate to be a primary defender, freeing him up to do more of what he does best.
As you mentioned, this move wouldn’t come in a vacuum. It would result from the Pistons cutting bait on Ivey, Sasser, or both, which is a tough pill to swallow for any team with young players they love. However, with a new regime, Detroit is uniquely positioned to target exactly who they want in this draft without telegraphing that move to the rest of the league. In some ways, that means that the 2024 NBA Draft runs through the Pistons, making their selection much more consequential.