Devin Carter: The Next All-Defensive Guard?
Stephen compares Providence's Devin Carter to other defensive-minded guards to be named to All-Defensive Teams...and a few that haven't.
Prelude: Comparison is a Vehicle to Joy
Theodore Roosevelt once said: “Comparison is the thief of joy.” It’s true; when you look at someone who has more than you, what joy you have could be sapped quickly. Before we go too far down a rabbit hole of therapy, I do want to point out that if done properly, comparison can be a vehicle to a joyful destination. This can be especially true in evaluating prospects.
Player comps aren’t for everyone. Scouts can look silly when they say that DeShawn Stevenson’s pro comparison is Michael Jordan. There seems to be a general understanding that comps aren’t a “one-for-one” mechanism, but those who don’t agree with a comparison will immediately state that there is no way that Player A can become Player B. This type of thought process has led to draft outlets—such as No Ceilings—to list “prospect chemistry.” You’ve probably seen The Ringer’s draft material list “shades of.” It’s all just a way for evaluators to say that this player reminds them of another player—probably an NBA player.
I find this to be a useful exercise. What I find to be beneficial about comparison isn’t the players that are compared, but the role a player could carve out in the league. Determining a path to playing time makes the projection a little bit easier, as well as figuring out their value compared to the rest of their draft class.
In this draft class—one that is being billed as “The Role Player Draft Class”—it’s imperative to find out how the incoming crop of players can contribute in a meaningful way. This brings us to the featured prospect, Devin Carter. Carter is thought of as being the ultimate role player within this class. He plays defense at a high level with seemingly unlimited energy. He has an NBA-ready body, has developed into a good shooter on high volume, and he has the bloodline factor that NBA teams seem to really value.
This piece won’t be a typical scouting report piece that you’ve seen me pump out during the year. What I want to do here is compare (yes, compare!) Devin Carter to other role players in the league. This won’t just be any comparison, but I want to primarily compare him to guards that have been named to All-Defensive teams. These are the ultimate role players of the NBA, so it just seems fitting to compare this class's ultimate role player to them. We may get into a couple of other talented, defensive-minded guards if you’re lucky.
Let’s go!
Jrue Holiday
Jrue came into the league as a player who many hoped could become a lead playmaker, but he was valuable as a defender. In his lone year at UCLA, Jrue recorded 55 steals and 18 blocks playing just over 27 minutes per game. Jrue was instantly one of the NBA’s youngest players when Philadelphia drafted him 17th overall in the loaded 2009 NBA Draft. From Philly, Holiday played for New Orleans and Milwaukee—where he would be a major player for their championship run. Now with the Boston Celtics, Jrue has been a pivotal player for another team with championship aspirations.
When evaluating the “tale of the tape” between Jrue and Devin, it’s interesting to see the similarities and differences. Jrue had a smaller role as a freshman, but had some areas where he was more potent. His athleticism and length gave him the ability to be a bit quicker in passing lanes and on the ball, which bears out in the steal percentages. It’s worth pointing out the offensive rebounding percentage advantage Jrue has on Devin. Despite being a little more stout as a prospect, Jrue’s length and athleticism allowed him to be more active on the offensive glass. The fact that Devin took over 220 threes while Jrue only had 88 probably gives Jrue a proximity advantage, as well.
The listed height and weight from these two’s draft season lean to Jrue Holiday. It’s very interesting to see that Devin has more than one inch on Jrue’s wingspan despite being measured one inch shorter. These metrics explain why both players were able to have such an impact on both sides of the ball for their respective universities.
One advantage that Carter does have for his draft year is the jumper. Devin is +7 on his threes on Jrue, albeit as an older prospect with a couple of college seasons. Comparing Devin’s freshman year to Jrue’s, Jrue is +4 from deep. Since entering the NBA, Holiday has only had two seasons where he shot under 35% from deep in the NBA—averaging over 37% for his career.
Carter coming into the league as a fantastic rebounder is something that speaks to his hustle, mentality, and physicality. He has the frame and ancillary skills to succeed in the NBA. What may separate him from achieving the same level of success as Holiday is the passing. As a teenager, Jrue put up roughly the same assist percentage as Devin just did while turning the ball over at a higher rate.
As a freshman, Devin did post an assist percentage of 19.0—a respectable rate but still short of what Jrue accomplished. Jrue only had one season in the NBA where he averaged less than four assists per game, and that was as a rookie. Carter makes good decisions with the ball, but there are some limitations he has as a lead creator.
Defensively, there is a real chance that Devin can wreak the same sort of havoc that we’ve seen Jrue inflict on the league. Jrue has been named to six All-Defensive teams, posting career steal averages of 1.4 steals per game, and 0.5 blocks per game. At UCLA, Jrue held all opponents to 32% from three, and just 32.6% on their twos. This season, Carter held opponents to 32.2% on threes and 38.1% on their twos.
Projection
Devin does not have the same level of feel with the ball in his hands that Jrue does. The potential to be a prominent ball-handler doesn’t look like it will be in the cards, but Carter will be able to be trusted as a connective playmaker based on his ability to see the court and what we’ve seen from him at Providence. The defensive impact could be on par with what Jrue has done in the pros. The height is a little hampered, but the wingspan and keen awareness are similar to what Holiday did at UCLA.
Marcus Smart
It’s always nice to do any sort of comparison to Marcus Smart. Being reminded of how talented of an offensive force he was at Oklahoma State never gets old. During his sophomore season, Smart averaged 18 PPG, while dishing out just under 5 APG. Marcus was a consensus All-American, two-time All-Big 12, Big 12 Rookie of the Year, and Big 12 Player of the Year. The level of intensity he brought on both sides of the ball led to him being drafted #6 overall by the Boston Celtics in the 2014 NBA Draft.
As a sophomore, Marcus was able to do a lot of what he’s been known for in the NBA. His 5.0 steal rate is flat-out ridiculous. That steal rate beats what Devin has done by a sizeable margin, while he also posted a more impactful assist rate and free throw rate. Devin did shoot better from distance, topping Marcus by almost 8%. Smart is another college guard who out-rebounded Carter on the offensive glass, but, again, Carter attempted almost 60 more three-pointers than Marcus. The usage, adjusted defensive rating, turnover percentage, and free-throw percentage are nearly identical.
The biggest thing that allowed Marcus to see the NBA court on Day One was his strength. You can see that draft-year Smart outweighed draft-year Devin by almost 35 pounds. His weight has led to Marcus being able to defend a multitude of positions in the NBA, as well as allowing Smart to average 3.5 RPG. Carter had smart beat in listed height by a quarter inch, but Smart has an inch longer wingspan. Smart’s +7-inch wingspan is ridiculous, and it has led to him doing things that most sub-6’4” guards can only dream of.
Smart being drafted as a sophomore makes the comparison to Carter a little closer, but Carter’s leap in shooting this season still needs to be scaled back to more closely compare his shooting to Smart. As a sophomore, Carter only shot 29.9% from deep—identical to Smart’s draft year. It could be possible that Carter mimics what Marcus has done in the league, as he is a career 32.3% shooter from deep.
Smart has had moments where he has been the lead playmaker for his teams, although that is not his best skill. A career 4.6 assist per game player, Marcus combines some passing feel with low turnover numbers—a career 1.9 turnover per game guy. This could bear itself out for Devin. Depending on where he is drafted, it could be possible that Carter sees a good portion of orchestrating.
There may be no better sub-6’4” defender over the past 10 seasons than Marcus Smart. Smart has averaged 1.6 steals per game, and 0.4 blocks per game for his career. He has been named to three All-NBA teams, and was also the recipient of the 2021-2022 Defensive Player of the Year award. The ridiculous steal and block percentages certainly bore themselves out in the pros for Smart, so maybe Carter can have the same translation? Smart’s accolade of DPOY is an outlier of outlier outcomes, as he was the first guard to earn the award since Gary Payton in the 1995-1996 season. The NBA is considered a game of inches, which means that the wingspan margin Smart has over Devin could mean the difference of multiple All-Defensive teams, or perhaps one.
Projection
It’s unlikely that we will see Devin Carter replicate the same decorated career as Marcus Smart. It could be another 15 seasons before a guard is able to be recognized in the same manner. The strength that Smart was able to come into the league with is understated but not unimportant. It’s the length and strength of Smart that allowed him to defend the starting point guard in one game, and then match up against the opposing four in the next one. It may be even more unlikely that Devin is able to have the same level of playmaking thrusted upon him.
That being said, Carter can still be a difference-maker in terms of versatility. Though having a shorter wingspan than Smart, Devin still sports a +6-inch reach, which will give him the ability to slide up and down the lineup to a respectable range. Carter is very strong positionally, and he may add some more mass to help his scalability. Even though Carter and Smart had identical sophomore shooting seasons, going into the pros after a near-38% shooting season could give Devin the confidence to be a more reliable marksman.
Derrick White
It may be apparent to some but if you haven’t noticed, we have been working our way down my unofficial ranking of All-Defensive guards. Carter has his work cut out to be the next Jrue Holiday or Marcus Smart, but we are starting to get to the player comparisons that are more possible outcomes. That’s not to say that becoming Derrick White is an easy path. On the contrary, it’s a major compliment to anyone to be the next Derrick White.
White had a bit longer of a path than any player we’ve discussed to this point. He spent three years playing for the University of Colorado-Colorado Springs, and then red-shirted a year before making the leap to D-I basketball for Colorado proper. Playing for the Buffaloes, White would earn PAC-12 All-Defensive honors, while also being named to the All-PAC-12 First Team.
Derrick had more of an offensive impact for his Colorado squad, but he also had another year of playing experience compared to Carter. Nevertheless, White showed more natural playmaking ability while also having a beautiful jumper. Derrick White recorded a 36.5 inch vertical at his combine, while Devin wowed everyone with a 42 inch vert. While having the leaping advantage, White was able to post a block percentage of 4.8 to Devin’s 2.8. Derrick’s more natural offensive aptitude bore out in his +6.1 advantage in their free throw rates.
Carter was able to best White in defensive rebounding percentage, turnover percentage, and adjusted defensive rating.
When looking at measurements, Derrick has a +1 inch advantage in listed height, but Devin is +3/4 of an inch regarding wingspan. It’s also worth noting that Carter is coming into the NBA with a little bit more girth, having weighed in more than three pounds than Derrick did at the NBA combine.
One thing that should stand out by now is—even though guards aren’t typically thought of as rebounders—how important it is for all positions to have been good rebounders pre-NBA.
Derrick recorded a higher three-point percentage than Devin, but Carter attempted around 80 more long balls than White. As a passer, White tallied almost 30 more assists and 8 fewer turnovers than Devin did. That ability to organize an offense while being an impactful defender led to White being a late first round draft pick by the Spurs. His shooting in Colorado continued to the pros, as White has become a career 36.3% shooter from deep. The playmaking has been an important and often understated aspect of his game, as he is a 4.1 assist per game player.
On defense, it’s remarkable that White has been a career 0.8 steals per game and 0.9 blocks per game guard. The blocks have long been a trademark for the defensive specialist, but it’s wild to think he has never more than 1.0 steals per game. On top of that, he’s only hit that number twice. That “lack” of numerical production doesn’t minimize his defensive significance.
Derrick White has never allowed a two point percentage higher than 49.2%, except his rookie season. He’s also never allowed a three-point percentage more than 35% outside of the season he was traded from San Antonio to Boston (he allowed 36.9% that year). Devin’s footwork may be able to facilitate similar success on defense. Carter recorded better lane, shuttle, and 3/4 sprint times than what Derrick put up in his combine. With the quicker feet, a stronger frame, and a longer reach, it’s possible that Carter can replicate numbers close to White.
Derrick White has been close to a 46/40/90 guy in the NBA for seven NBA seasons. While being an efficient offensive player, he has been named to two All-Defensive teams.
Projection
The Derrick White outcome for Devin Carter may be possible on defense, but it may be difficult to be as efficient on offense. The possibility of being a career 4+ assist per game player may also be difficult for him to obtain. What is more likely is the 3.5 rebounds per game, as well as the steal outputs. Being more strong and athletic compared to Derrick may give Carter the ability to hold perimeter players to low three-point shooting, as well as stifle other players in the paint.
Alex Caruso
Alex Caruso is the lone undrafted player to grace this article. Despite being an RSCI Top 100 recruit, Alex had to fight his way into the NBA after a four-year college career at Texas A&M. It may surprise some, but Caruso didn’t light up the college landscape with the Aggies. During his four years with the team, Alex averaged 8.0 PPG, 4.7 APG, and 3.7 RPG. The offensive numbers were sort of pedestrian, but Caruso also averaged 2.0 steals and 0.4 blocks per game. Even with good defense, Alex was recognized with just one SEC All-Defensive team.
The “tale of the tape” between Caruso and Carter is interesting. Even as an upperclassman, Alex was not utilized in a high manner. I wasn’t scouting during this time, but I believe that his usage was likely something that led to him being undrafted. Caruso was used more as a facilitator for his team—something that has been common among the comparisons thus far. Alex’s higher steal and offensive rebounding percentages stand out, and could be due to the height differential. Devin laps Alex in terms of defensive rebounding, and Carter turned the ball over less frequently.
Devin’s free throw rate stands out here, as Caruso is -8.2 in that metric. Alex is thought of for his athleticism—and rightfully so—but Carter recorded 26 dunks in his junior season, while Alex 16 as a senior.
Alex Caruso—an NBA champion—was not invited to the NBA Combine. No, these measurements are from his Portsmouth Invitational Tournament stint. Caruso has a +2.25 inch advantage in listed height, but Carter’s +6 wingspan gives him an almost +3 inch advantage over Alex. Carter is also five pounds heavier than what Caruso weighed in at in Portsmouth. We do not have the strength and agility numbers to analyze.
Alex had to make year-by-year improvements as a shooter to make it in the league. He went from being a 26.5% three-point shooter as a freshman to being a 36.8% shooter as a senior. His growth as a shooter has led to Caruso being a career 38.0% from deep in the NBA. His percentages have waxed and waned, as Caruso has experienced three seasons shooting below 35% from deep.
Alex has also had career averages of 2.9 rebounds and assists per game. Caruso has taken on a number of roles for his teams—from being a relied upon role player, to being an every night starter. Because he has made improvements as a shooter while also showing some playmaking in days in college, Alex has become one of the better specialists in the NBA today.
Caruso has been one of the more highly regarded defenders over the past four seasons. This NBA Champion has been named to two consecutive NBA All-Defensive teams, and has been on Defensive Player of the Year ballots as well. Despite not having an imposing wingspan, Alex possesses positional height at the one, and has become strong enough to guard other perimeter players as well.
Projection
Comparing Caruso’s growth as a shooter and what Devin has done over three seasons is very encouraging. In Devin’s junior season, he graded slightly above what we saw from Alex in his junior year—even being +6% as a free throw shooter. What could parallel nicely is the shooting in the NBA. We saw this earlier—Caruso has averaged a respectable three-point percentage over several seasons, but has had some below-average years. That same fate could be Devin’s based on how much work he has had to put into his jumper.
The defensive output from Carter could be similar, if not greater than what Alex has done. This past season, Caruso was named to the All-Defensive Second Team while allowing 40.9% from three, and 54.7% on twos. The year before (which was another All-Defensive season for Alex), he allowed 56% on twos and 36.6% on threes. He did tie for sixth place in steals per game this season, and was 18th the season before that. His reputation as a versatile defender has carried him a long way in his career, and we could see Carter have that same sort of imprint on the league.
Jalen Suggs
Jalen Suggs was a one-and-done at Gonzaga and a player who garnered some #1 overall pick consideration for the 2021 NBA Draft. People waxed poetic about his winning nature and the fact that he was a quarterback in high school. He was a consensus Top 10 player in the nation coming into Spokane, and he was seen as physically ready for higher levels of basketball. He won three gold medals with Team USA. He was even named to the Bob Cousy Award Watch List.
This freshman phenom averaged 14.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.9 SPG, and 0.3 BPG while posting splits of 50/34/75. The shooting was a major divergence point for many talent evaluators, despite the fact that he had a solid free-throw percentage and his three-point percentage wasn’t that bad. That Bulldog team made it to the finals, but would ultimately lose. Suggs finished his lone college season winning WCC All-Freshman, 2020-2021 WCC Rookie of the Year, and being named a consensus All-American.
While having a lower minutes percentage compared to Devin Carter, Jalen posted very similar numbers during his freshman season. The only categories that are what I would deem noteworthy are the offensive and defensive rebounding, block, and three point percentages. All of these areas are tilted to Devin Carter. The rest are pretty much neck-and-neck.
Freshman Suggs was a better shooter than freshman Suggs, though, by about 5%. He was also a better free throw shooter by about 7%. Preparing this article reminded me of how frustrating it was that Jalen Suggs (and Cade Cunningham) declined to participate in the NBA combine. This isn’t an argument against or for what players want to do, it’s just helpful when comparing players. Going solely on the 2021 NBA Draft profile listed on the NBA league site, Suggs was listed at 6’4” and 205 pounds. The profile also lists Suggs’s wingspan at 6’6”. If these measurements were indeed accurate (the height is not specified as “without shoes” or with them), Suggs may be taller by almost two inches but would have a -2-inch wingspan. Being a former football player, it would make sense that Jalen would be about 10 pounds heavier.
Much like Alex Caruso, Suggs has had to make year-by-year improvements from beyond the arc. Jalen only shot an abysmal 21.4% from three during his rookie season. He followed that up with a 32.7% season, and then 39.7% this year. His consistency from the free-throw line was a big precursor to his three-point growth, as he was a 75% free-throw shooter in college, which is what he’s averaged in the NBA. Jalen has also averaged 3.2 rebounds and assists per game.
The defensive translation Jalen had to the NBA started well, and improved more and more every year. Suggs has been a career 1.3 steals per game and 0.5 blocks per game over three years. Jalen allowed a two-point percentage of 43.7% on twos and 34.5% on threes during his rookie season. Those numbers actually went up over the next two years, which is sort of surprising considering he was named to the All-Defensive Second Team this past season. He does hold a major responsibility on Orlando, who just finished as one of the best defensive teams this season.
Projection
It’s odd to say that an early career (yes, I know there is more ball ahead of Jalen) Jalen Suggs seems like a safe projection for Devin Carter. Despite not being as decorated, and likely to not go as high as Suggs, Carter becoming a player to be featured alongside two major offensive hubs while being a defensive nightmare could certainly be in the cards. We haven’t seen enough of Jalen to know if he is truly a near-40% shooter from distance, but a +7% leap could be more of a spike than a plateau. Carter could post an outlier season or two, while being an average (or slightly below average) shooter in the NBA. Making an All-Defensive team by year three isn’t impossible, but it isn’t normal either—particularly for a guard. Devin might need a few more seasons to be as involved in a rotation and earn that reputation, but this, of course, is team-dependent; consider Lu Dort’s output-to-recognition ratio, for example.
Patrick Beverley
It’s very unlikely that anyone would want to be compared to Patrick Beverley nowadays, but it’s worth including him due to his decorated defensive career. What’s wild about Patrick’s ascent to being one of the peskiest defenders in the NBA is that he wasn’t all that impactful on defense at Arkansas. Sure, he wasn’t bad on that end, but Patrick was more known for his daring offensive shot selection than being a lock-down guy. During his two seasons with the Razorbacks, Beverley averaged 13.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.5 SPG, and 0.4 BPG. He also averaged splits of about 42/38/73. He won the SEC Rookie of the Year as a freshman, while also obviously being named to the SEC All-Freshman team. That’s the only accolade he earned in college. He was drafted by the Lakers 42nd overall in the loaded 2009 NBA Draft following his sophomore season.
Looking at how these advanced metrics compare, the defensive numbers slant to Devin pretty easily. Even the usage rate is over a +8, with Carter holding a distinct lead. Carter rebounded at a higher level, and proved to be a better processor. Beverley did have a higher free-throw rate, but shot free throws at a -10% clip. We don’t have official combine measurements for Patrick, nor could I find his Portsmouth Invitational measurements.
Patrick was listed at 6’1” and 180 pounds. While I was not able to find official measurements, Beverley is believed to have a wingspan as large as 6’8”, according to the NBA’s league site. Those numbers would make sense based on his defensive output. This would put Carter at a listed height greater than one inch, a listed weight greater than 10 pounds, and a wingspan advantage of a quarter-inch.
After spending some time in Europe winning EuroCup MVPs and being named to All-Star games, Beverley made his NBA debut with the Houston Rockets in the 2012-2013 season. In his 12 seasons in the NBA, Pat Bev has averaged 1.1 steals per game and 0.5 blocks per game. Coming into the league as a proven three-point shooter, Pat has averaged a career three-point percentage of 37.1%. Beyond his shooting and defensive numbers, Beverley has averaged 4.1 rebounds per game and 3.4 assists per game.
It’s been several seasons since Patrick has been named to an All-Defensive team, but he did make an All-Defensive Second Team in his second NBA season. He went on to make two more defensive teams and would be on later halves of Defensive Player of the Year ballots. His 3-and-D archetype has been coveted by many teams up into this past season.
Projection
I would be shocked if Devin Carter couldn’t pull off a similar level of production that Pat Bev has been able to pull off in the NBA. That’s not to say that what Patrick did was easy, but it’s more saying that I believe in Devin that much. Beverley’s shooting translated well to the NBA despite poor free-throw shooting numbers. He’s experienced three straight seasons of being below 35% from three, but that could be due to decreasing athleticism at his age (now 35). He did have nine consecutive years shooting at least 35% from distance to begin his career. Devin should be able to replicate the rebounding, steals, and block output—and possibly around 3 APG as he continues to develop as a player. His measurables should afford him the same opportunity to be named to some all-defensive teams, too.
De’Anthony Melton
Melton is the first of a few players that we’re going to look at who have yet to be named to an All-Defensive team in the NBA. Even without that accolade, Melton has been a good pro for six seasons. It may surprise many to know that Melton was actually a one-and-done prospect coming out of USC. That was without being an RSCI Top 100 prospect too. He didn’t receive any accolades in college, either. For the Trojans, De’Anthony averaged 8.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.9 SPG, and 1.0 BPG. His splits weren’t special, as he averaged 43.7 FG%, 28.4 3P%, and 70.6 FT%. These numbers weren’t extravagant, but they were enough for him to be selected with the 46th overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft.
Melton posted similar assist numbers as a freshman to what we just saw from Carter this season, but did turn the ball over more—which is to be expected. Melton’s athleticism allowed him to post a higher block and steals percentage compared to Carter, as well as a higher free throw rate. Carter has grown into a more reliable shooter from the line and beyond the arc. Melton had the advantage on the offensive glass, while Devin was much better on the defensive boards.
Looking at the freshman shooting numbers from Carter, they are strikingly similar to that of the one-and-done De’Anthony. Melton was +0.03% from deep, and was +1.8% from the free throw line. He lapped first-year Devin Carter in steals and blocks percentage, but Carter was +8 on free throw rate.
The combine measurements between these two were almost dead-even, with De’Anthony having a quarter-inch wingspan advantage. That extra length was put to great use at USC, and had NBA teams interested in what he could bring as a point-of-attack defender in the league. As close as these two were in measurements, Carter was miles ahead in the agility and strength measurements. Devin was +0.85 seconds on the lane agility drill, +0.43 seconds on the shuttle drill, and +0.36 seconds on the three-quarter sprint. Carter also bested Melton by over five inches on the vertical jump.
De’Anthony’s shooting problems did carry over for his first two seasons in the league, going for 29.4% from deep during that span. From his third season to how he shot this year, Melton has shot 38.3% over four seasons. That growth as a shooter has allowed him to carve out a role on offense, to allow his defense to be worth having on the floor. De’Anthony has averaged 3.7 rebounds per game, and 2.8 assists per game over the course of six NBA seasons as well. Melton has been relied upon to have some offensive sets run through him—not to be a complete offensive hub, but as a player who can be trusted to make good reads.
Melton has averaged 1.4 steals per game, and 0.5 blocks per game while playing for three different teams. Surprisingly, De’Anthony has played for some good defensive teams but has allowed higher field goal percentages than one might expect. This past season, Melton allowed opponents to convert on 45.9% of their twos, and 43% on their threes. The year before he allowed 48.8% and and 38.8% on twos and threes, respectively. Melton has only had one season in which he held his opponents under 35% from three, and that was his second season in Memphis. To his credit, De’Anthony has had three seasons where he held opponents under 45% on twos.
Projection
Melton has developed a reputation as a 3-and-D player and has grown into a desired NBA veteran. While his counting stats and allowed field goal percentages conflict to some extent, Melton has shown the ability to stifle his opponents and be a solid point-of-attack defender. His commitment to improve as a shooter has given him some staying power as an undersized guard. While his career has been one worthy of respect, I expect Devin Carter to be able to do more. Considering that Carter tested better athletically, and that the film shows a Tasmanian devil, I would anticipate Devin being a more impactful defender. De’Anthony is another encouraging prospect to examine to see his growth as a shooter, and I believe that Devin can be a positive three-point shooter in the NBA. Melton is still young (25) and may be named to an All-Defensive team at some point, and I would expect Carter (22 years old) to be named to an All-Defensive team as well.
Jevon Carter
Jevon Carter isn’t a household name, but he has carved out a sustainable role in the NBA due to his gritty defense and improved jumper. Carter was a four-year player for West Virginia, not taking long to establish himself as one of the best defenders in college hoops. Jevon averaged 2.3 steals per game in those four seasons, and he was named to three Big 12 All-Defensive teams. He was also named the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year twice. During his senior season, Carter also averaged 6.6 assists per game, and 4.6 rebounds per game. As a sophomore, Carter hit 30.6% of his threes, but he improved to 39.3% in his senior year. The nasty defense and more polished offense led to Jevon being drafted 32nd overall in the absolutely loaded 2018 NBA Draft. This was one spot ahead of Jalen Brunson.
Jevon—with one more season of playing experience—definitely has the edge in playmaking. West Virginia was going to live or die by Jevon on both sides of the ball. Even with a much higher percentage, Jevon only had a worse turnover percentage by 0.7%. Jevon also was more of a ball hawk, having the steal percentage advantage by almost 2%. With similar usage, Devin has been the better rebounder and shot blocker—with a higher free throw rate. Jevon Carter has been the better shooter—even as a junior.
Jevon shot 38.9% from three in his junior season, which was a plus 8% improvement. Jevon’s assist percentage that year was 20.5—lower than what we saw from Devin this year at Providence.
Per the combine measurements, Devin is +2 inches in listed height and is +4 inches in wingspan. Interestingly enough, Jevon weighed in over three pounds heavier. The reach and height advantage would explain why Devin was able to record higher block and rebounding numbers. Jevon’s sturdy build allows him to be a little more physical on the point of attack, and makes him difficult to get through.
Devin’s standout agility measurements all beat what Jevon was able to do during his combine. Devin was 0.41 seconds faster on the lane agility drill, 0.15 seconds faster on the shuttle run, and 0.31 seconds faster on the three-quarter sprint. He also posted a 42-inch max vert compared to Jevon’s 36.5. Those numbers also bear themselves out on the film, where you can see Devin recover on skips or get up to grab contested rebounds.
Jevon Carter’s time in the NBA has seen him play about 16 minutes per game over the course of six seasons. In that time, he has averaged 5.3 points per game, 1.7 rebounds per game, and 1.6 assists per game. He has averaged splits of about 40/38/80. The majority of his shots have come from deep (3.0 of 4.9 field goal attempts have been threes). His first season and latest season are the only ones in which he shot less than 35% from three.
On defense, Jevon has career averages of 0.6 steals and 0.3 blocks per game. Perhaps the best part of Jevons college game was his steals percentage. His first three years in the pros all saw him post a steal rate of at least 2. The last three have had averages of 1.3, 1.7, and 1.8. It just proves a long-believed theory that playing in the NBA under the size of 6’4” is hard—especially for a sustained period of time. This season, he only allowed a three-point percentage of 31.1%. He’s actually never allowed his opponents to shoot over 35% since his rookie season, where he allowed 45%.
Projection
What Jevon Carter has been able to do in the NBA is remarkable for a player of his size. The NBA is considered a game of inches, so to come into the league at a size deficit—as a defensive-minded prospect—and stick the way that he has is why he is included on this list. He’s never been named to an all-defensive, but he has been trusted by five organizations to play a Three-and-D role to fill out a roster. That may not be the most ringing endorsement, but the league needs players like Jevon to sustain general managers’ resumes and team success.
That being said, I would be somewhat disappointed if Devin Carter ended up being “another Jevon Carter”. I believe being a little longer and taller goes a long way—as we have seen with some other guards of his stature. It’s what allows him to rebound and defend the way he does. I believe in his playmaking to translate at least to the same degree as what Jevon has done, if not more. I would love to see him continue to develop as a shooter—much in the same way we’ve seen Jevon grow.
Miles McBride
Miles McBride of the New York Knicks will be the last player who we compare to Devin Carter. McBride follows Jevon Carter on this list—which is fitting, as he followed Jevon Carter as a guard at West Virginia. Miles spent two seasons playing for the Mountaineers, averaging 12.6 PPG, 3.3 APG, 3.1 RPG, 1.5 SPG, and 0.4 BPG during that span. McBride was not a top recruit, but he was still named to the Big 12 All-Freshman team, and then to the 2020-2021 All-Big 12 team. His transition from a reliable bench guard into lead guard went swimmingly, and resulted in him being selected with the 36th overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft.
In his draft year, McBride had a smaller usage percentage, but was a better shooter and a better playmaker than Carter. Devin was able to outrebound Miles by a substantial margin, a higher block percentage, and a higher free throw rate. Miles was a better shooter in terms of percentage, but Carter shot over 100 more during his junior season.
Comparing combine measurements, Devin measured one-and-one-quarter inch taller, but Miles weighed in heavier and had a half-inch advantage in reach. That longer reach allowed Miles to post ridiculous steal percentages. Devin’s strength and agility drills beat Miles’—like he has done against everyone else—but McBride’s 38.5 inch vertical jump is one of the closest that we’ve seen in this study. Even still, Carter posted a plus 0.45 second lane agility drill, a plus 0.23 second shuttle drill, and a plus 0.23 second 3/4 sprint.
McBride barely played as a rookie for the New York Knicks—averaging just over 9 MPG in 40 games played. He also only shot 25% from deep. He averaged about two more minutes per game during his second season, and improved to being a 29.9% shooter on 2.1 attempts per outing. This season, Miles played almost 20 MPG—averaging over 8 PPG while shooting 41% on his threes. The signs of him being a shooter existed in his college film, but he was eased into being a reliable rotational guard. While his shooting has improved, McBride has maintained a rebounding average around one per game, while his assists per game have taken incremental strides.
Defensively, Miles has never eclipsed a steal per game, and he has only averaged 0.1 blocks per game. While toting a longer wingspan, Miles has done well being a perimeter defender in his more limited role. McBride has held opponents to 33.8%, 31.7%, and 29.2% on their three-point attempts over his three-year career (listed from most current and descending). On their twos, however, he has allowed 47.4%, 52.1%, and 48.6%. His strength and length allow him to be a stout point-of-attack defender, but it isn’t impossible to get past or shoot over the top. These contrasting percentages sort of encapsulate how difficult it is for sub-6’4” guards to be more complete defenders at the pro level.
Projection
Devin Carter should have a more immediate and impactful start to his NBA career than what we’ve seen from Miles McBride—which is an utter compliment to Carter, because McBride is going to be a good NBA player for quite a while. Miles was not recognized with a defensive accolade in college, but neither was Devin. Miles has held his matchups to lower percentages than some of the more recognized players on this list, as well. That being said, the draft buzz surrounding Carter will help him establish that reputation from year one. That level of acclaim and projected output should help Devin in a way we haven’t seen from McBride. It could be more likely that Carter goes to a team that is more friendly with developmental minutes than what we have seen from New York. Carter’s growth as a shooter should, at least, mirror what we’ve seen from Miles. I mean this in the most respectful manner, but it would be a bit of a disappointment if Carter was not able to surpass what McBride has done during his young career.
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