Don't Forget About Kevin McCullar Jr.

Kansas's Kevin McCullar Jr. was a hot commodity at the start of the season, but his stock seems to have cooled. That shouldn't be the case.

Sometimes, you forget how good something is when you haven’t gotten to enjoy it in a while. When I’ve gone too long without enjoying a sip of my favorite beer, I’m always blown away by the flavor yet again. When it’s been too long since I’ve wandered around Starved Rock State Park, the beauty of the scenery smacks me right in the face the second I return. When it’s been too long since I’ve watched Tommy Boy, the comedic genius of the film still manages to tickle my comedic sensibilities upon a re-watch. By the way, a lot of people go to college for seven years. They’re called “players who redshirted and then transferred under the previous transfer rules, which required a player to sit out for a year, and then subsequently exercised their extra COVID year of eligibility.”

I say all that to say…I think it’s been too long since some of us have gotten to enjoy Kevin McCullar Jr. He last played basketball on March 9th, before an injury put an end to his final college season at Kansas. Just a few weeks prior, he was the 13th-ranked prospect on Corey Tulaba’s $DRFT Stock Market, which tracks the rankings of players across various draft outlets. By May, McCullar had fallen all the way to 29th.

Maybe McCullar’s injury history got to people. Maybe it’s his age, as he’ll turn 24 during his rookie season. Perhaps it’s a combination of those two things and a lackluster shooting track record. But maybe, just maybe, we forgot how good Kevin McCullar Jr. actually is at the game of basketball. When I dug into the film, I was hit with that, “I can’t bet against this guy” feeling that I got back at the start of the season. Today, we’re going to dive into what McCullar can bring to an NBA team right away and why some of his weaknesses might not be what they seem.

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On-Ball Defense

It’s not easy to score on Kevin McCullar. It doesn’t matter who you are. While he’s not the fastest player in the world, his technique helps him to stifle smaller, quicker opponents. He’ll use his physicality to bump and wall off his foes, often remaining in a proper stance while doing so. McCullar does a great job of changing directions and mirroring the counters of his opponents. Not only does that prevent McCullar from getting suckered or shaken but it enables him to stay in front of the ball even against a more complex series of maneuvers. This prevents opponents from getting into the paint, and often forces dribble pickups in inconvenient parts of the court. Even in instances where opponents do manage to get by him, he plays with a high motor and always gives an extra effort to get back in the play. He’s clever with his hands as well as his timing, knowing the exact moment that he can reach in to poke the ball loose or nab a steal. He generates a ton of strips, particularly on the interior when opponents try to go up with the ball.

This all bodes well for McCullar as it pertains to an NBA translation. His bulk (205.8 pounds), length (6’9” wingspan), and technical prowess should help him to cover a multitude of opponents. He’s comfortable switching, but he also has the tenacity and mobility to work his way around screens when required. Even in a high usage role (28.0) where some of his defensive playmaking metrics suffered, he was an effective point-of-attack defender. Per Synergy, McCullar held opponents to an eFG% of 40.4 this past season.

Off-Ball Defense

If you want some off-ball playmaking sizzle, McCullar has that, too. His career 3.2 STL%, 2.0 BLK%, and 4.4 DBPM are all stellar indicators. He’s always paying attention and his motor runs hot. When opponents throw a lazy pass, he’s ready to burst forward at full speed for a pick-six. When the offense’s play breaks down, he wins in gray areas more often than not. He thrives in the chaos and outsmarts opponents in gaps to force mistakes. For a star player, he dove on the floor a lot. His low-man instincts are up to snuff. Occasionally, he’ll bust is tail down from the perimeter to help swat a shot around the basket.

In totality, there is a lot to like about McCullar on the defensive end. He’s going to provide a modern blend of positional versatility and playmaking. He’s a fundamentally sound on-ball defender who has refined his off-ball game so that he can optimize his gambles. Would he be more valuable if he were a little bit longer, quicker, and bouncier? Sure. But the bottom line is that McCullar has consistently out-produced foes with better tools. He’s not at an insurmountable deficit. He may be an average athlete by NBA standards, but he’s his intellect and effort levels far exceed average.

The Shooting: Better Than You Think!

One of the big knocks on Kevin McCullar has been his shot. Look, I get it. It looks a little funky. His feet aren’t always aligned with the cup off the catch, the ball tracks up the left side of his body, he shoots off the top of his head, and his elbow flares out to the side. He’s also a career 30.9% three-point shooter. When you’re talking about a Redshirt Graduate, that can be scary! I get it, and it’s okay to be afraid sometimes. But what if I told you…Kevin McCullar is actually an okay three-point shooter.

You may have your doubts, and I completely get it. But over the years, I’ve kept a running log of players who have earned or are on pace to earn multiple NBA contracts. I track how those players produced in their final pre-draft seasons. Compared to other forward prospects, McCullar actually graded out well in his final year at Kansas. Both his 33.3% accuracy mark and his volume of 7.5 attempts per 100 possessions had him sitting right around the median spot on that list. If you want to compare him to more of a 2/3 style wing than a 3/4 forward, he’s below average, but he’s still not in red flag territory.

Not sold? Understandable. He’s a lot older than most prospects on that list. But there are even more reasons to be optimistic. At the next level, McCullar projects to be much more of a catch-and-shoot, complementary player than an on-ball dynamo. This past, McCullar was often asked to be the latter. He doesn’t have much of a pull-up game, but 19 of his 120 three-point attempts had to come off the dribble. His 2-for-19 on those attempts is dreadful, to be fair. It’s off-putting. But it also means that McCullar shot 36.6% on catch-and-shoot threes. He showed some movement chops on those too, running into his jumper in transition or sliding into it off of flares. Best of all, opponents can’t leave McCullar unguarded. He drained 45.2% of his unattended threes this past season. Lesser wing shooters are often parked in the corner, and he knocked down 42.6% of his 54 corner threes. All he needs to be able to do is punish the defense when they don’t respect him. And when they do respect him, he has even more ways to punish them.

We’ll get to that in a second. But first, I think it’s important to consider that data. McCullar is often derided as a subpar shooter and a non-shooter. But his recent efficiency leap, which includes a volume, difficulty, and free-throw percentage along with it, deserves respect. If nothing else, he can pick the low-hanging fruit. McCullar isn’t going to be Luke Kennard, but in order to bring value, he just has to be good enough. And I think there’s reason to believe that he can be that.

Attacking

Kevin McCullar knows how to get downhill. He’s got a good enough handle and first step to attack closeouts. In handoffs and ball screen scenarios, he chooses his angles carefully to maximize space. If he’s forced to break down an opponent off the dribble, he does have a few counters at his disposal. He’s strong enough to maintain both his line and control of the ball when bumped. There’s still some finesse and wiggle to make defenders miss in there, too. In congruence, those skills help him get to the rim on a consistent basis. Per Synergy, 37.5% of McCullar’s halfcourt shot attempts came at the rim. He’s proven capable of further collapsing defenses from the second side of the court. In a class where few wing/forward prospects can get to the rim on their own, that holds weight.

When it comes to his finishing, there’s some good and some bad. Let’s start with the positives. McCullar is strong, but he’s also tough. He’s more than welcoming of contact. Even better, he has the power to play through it while keeping a necessary degree of touch. As a result, McCullar racks up And-1s and gets to the free throw line on a consistent basis (5.7 FTAs per game, .426 FTr). His 56% mark at the rim wasn’t the best, but when you consider the context, it’s really solid. First off, he took a large volume of attempts at the rim. Secondly, Kansas’s spacing was far from ideal. They were 336th in the country in three-point attempts per game while ranking 229th in percentage. This complicated things even more for McCullar, who took more threes per contest than any other player on the team. He couldn’t space the floor for himself! His ability to still get to the rim so often on such a cramped court and sniff a decent mark should be commended.

There may be a few issues when it comes to scaling up. For starters, McCullar’s first step and physicality may not be quite as effective against older, bigger, more athletic opposition. My biggest concern, though, is his lack of lift. He’s very much a below-the-rim finisher. McCullar registered three dunks in the halfcourt this season, and all of them were on cuts. He’s not a “two dribbles and explode off one foot before putting a dude on a poster” type of guy. He’s going to have to maximize his athletic traits and continue to hone his craft so as to remain effective in this respect at the next level.

Playmaking

This year at Kansas, McCullar was forced to act as one of the team’s most frequent initiators. He was second on the team in assists per game (4.1) and assist percentage (22.9%) while posting the squad’s highest usage rate (28.0%). While he held his own, his limited pull-up game will make him more of a second-side guy at the NBA level. Still, this experience allowed him to further actualize his on-ball creation acumen. He reads the floor at an advanced level relative to his permission, enabling him to sling the ball when teammates suddenly spring open due to a defensive lapse. His pass placement on post entries is typically good, and he’s able to thread needles when operating out of a ball screen.

Not all assists are necessarily scalable, though. It’s common for college players to rack up assists because of their role rather than a function of their passing. It’s easier to find a guy when you get to dribble for 20 seconds as the offense happens around you. But what makes McCullar pop is that he has genuine “.5” playmaking chops. He can effectively hot potato the ball to open teammates, or quickly get off the ball when his driving gravity sucks in a help defender. A lot of times the “connector” label gets thrown onto players simply because they tally assists, but the tape shows that McCullar can genuinely continue and further advantageous without needing to sit on the ball.

Age and Injuries

Two of the most common knocks on McCullar are his age and injury history. If you’re hung up on his age, there isn’t going to be much I can do to convince you otherwise. He’s a 23-year-old who will turn 24 during his rookie season. On the positive side, that has led to him playing a variety of roles over the years. During his first two seasons at Texas Tech, he was an energy defender who would spot up and cut. During his third season, he began to take over a lot of on-ball responsibilities as they lacked a traditional lead guard. He led the Red Raiders in assists that year. Then, he transferred to Kansas, where he went back to his energy defender/spot-up role during his senior season. As a graduate, he served as the leading man for the Jayhawks. Sure, McCullar might be old. He’s also seasoned, though, and he has learned how to impact the game in a multitude of ways by virtue of his experience.

On the injury front, McCullar has certainly faced health setbacks. He redshirted his first year on campus at Texas Tech due to a fractured tibia. Throughout his college career, he missed time here and there and was known to be playing hurt in other instances. A knee injury nagged him this past season, and ultimately ended up sidelining McCullar right before the start of this year’s NCAA tournament. Will his medicals raise red flags? Maybe, but we’re never going to know. First of all, I’m not a doctor, but I’m also not working on the team side. We won’t get the full picture on our end. But also, medicals may not always be what they seem. Malcolm Brogdon was older and had health issues, but he ultimately had a long, prosperous NBA career. I’m not comfortable betting against a guy due to health hearsay when we’ve seen others blow past those concerns in the past.

Projection and Conclusion

I understand the concerns. McCullar is an older prospect who has faced multiple injury setbacks and has a sketchy shooting track record. It’s reasonable for an evaluator to see that and say, “no thanks.” But have you watched any Kevin McCullar tape lately? I have, and it struck me in a way that made me think, “oh yeah, there’s a reason people had this guy in the lottery.” He’s an outstanding defender, a sharp decision-maker, and he’s aggressive. You never feel like he’s leaving anything on the table. If he needs to dive on the floor or sacrifice his body while driving to the cup, he’s going to do it. He’s a selfless, team-first, dirty-work player who checks a lot of boxes.

If he doesn’t shoot it, is that a problem? Yes. But digging into the data, I feel better about the shot. He was an 80+% free throw shooter on high volume this past season, he makes his open ones, and he’s downright good from the corner. That’s all he’ll need to be. From there, his physical downhill game blended with his passing savvy make him a legitimate second-side attacker. Defensively, he’s going to make life miserable for the guy standing in front of him while using his smarts to create havoc off the ball. McCullar is well-rounded, high-motor, and ready to go. I see McCullar as a rookie who can see the floor right away and should carve out a long-term rotation spot for years to come.