Don't Overthink Antonio Reeves
This game has been, and always will be about getting buckets. Antonio Reeves is one of the best off-ball bucket getters in the 2024 NBA Draft.
One of the most fascinating (and frustrating) aspects of scouting is overthinking a prospect. Whether it’s his age, lack of defense, inconsistent shooting, inconsistent production, or any other nitpick that we end up overblowing the importance of, we always find a way to overthink a prospect’s flaws while ignoring their very obvious strengths. In the 2024 NBA Draft, I’m not sure if there’s a prospect that fits more perfectly into this category than Antonio Reeves from Kentucky.
At 6’6”, Reeves is a prototypical movement shooter and off-ball scorer. His numbers have been extraordinary all season, he’s a good athlete, and he’s one of the driving factors for one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Despite all of that, Reeves continues to not be mentioned in mock drafts, ignored in rankings, and widely met with a surprising amount of indifference.
Before we dive into the selling point of Reeves, we have to go through the red flags as Reeves is far from a perfect prospect. For starters, Reeves is an older prospect as he will turn 24 in November. Additionally, Reeves offers very little on the defensive end; he has a block rate of 0.8, a steal rate of 1.2, and he ranks in the 43rd percentile in overall defensive points per possession (PPP), per Synergy. If he gets drafted, Reeves will be just the eighth senior to do so since 2014 with a block rate under 1% and a steal rate under 1.5%. His company isn’t exactly littered with sterling NBA careers either.
All of those concerns are entirely valid, and if they are enough to turn you off, I get it. However, none of those factors are why you’d ever draft Reeves in the first place. If you’re rebuilding and looking to take a swing, then you wouldn’t be targeting a fifth-year senior. If you’re searching for a defensive stopper and targeting Reeves, then you’ve completely misunderstood the player. (Sidenote: I don’t hate Reeves’ defense as much as most, as he at least works hard and has some flashes, but the concerns are more than valid). However, if you’re looking for value in the second round and a lethal off-ball shooter and scorer, there aren’t many in this class who have been better than Reeves.
The entire selling point with Reeves is his scoring and bucket-getting instincts. So far this season, Reeves is averaging 20 points per game while shooting 50.7% from the floor on 13.9 attempts and 43.5% from three on 5.7 attempts. This will be his third straight season in which he’s shot at least 39% from three on more than 5.5 attempts. Additionally, Reeves ranks in the 97th percentile with 1.18 PPP.
Reeves is putting up rarified scoring numbers. It’s not just that he’s scoring on relatively high volume, it’s that he’s doing it efficiently as well. To get a better gauge on Reeves’s scoring prowess, you know that we have to return to our friends at Barttorvik again. Again, the purpose of these queries isn’t necessarily to create a one-for-one comparison but to get a sense of the validity of the numbers. So, when we look at players from true high major conferences who have averaged nine three-pointers per 100 possessions and shot over 40% from three since 2014, we get a LONG list of names.
To further weed out bit role players and those who consistently contributed, let’s look at those with a usage of at least 20. Let’s also separate the good shooters from the very good shooters by bumping the three-point percentage up to 43%. Now, our list is narrowed down to just 38 players who experienced a wide range of NBA success. This still isn’t entirely revealing as it still doesn’t properly reflect Reeves’ game. Reeves is much more than just a shooting specialist. To reflect this, let’s throw one last filter on for at least 55% from two-point range to further reflect the scoring efficiency and versatility. Now with just eight names, we have a better sense of how impressive Reeves’ season has been.
This isn’t to say that Reeves is guaranteed to have a career like some of the names here as most played a different role with their college teams. However, this does show us that Reeves is more than just a standstill shooter and has produced scoring numbers that have translated to the NBA in recent years.
Reeves’s scoring is almost entirely predicated on his off-ball movement. While he’s excellent at running off screens and handoffs to then set up on-ball opportunities, he’s rarely going to initiate the offense or act as an on-ball scorer. On the most basic level, Reeves is one of the best spot-up shooters in this class. He ranks in the 93rd percentile spotting up, scoring 1.211 PPP and shooting 45.7% from three, while also ranking in the 95th percentile shooting off the catch scoring 1.36 PPP and shooting 46% from three. Additionally, Reeves is currently scoring 1.353 PPP overall in transition (89th percentile) while shooting 51% from three, 1.087 PPP off screens (74th percentile), and 1.061 PPP on handoffs (77th percentile).
Numbers are important and reveal a lot, but they can also be misleading, especially with college shooters. You can quickly tell those who likely won’t make it at the next level if all of their shots come from standstill looks and they struggle when ran off the line. What sets Reeves apart from most shooters in the country, though, is what he can do off movement, and (more importantly) what he can do when he’s run off his spot.
Despite being known as a shooter, Reeves is highly adept at attacking the rim and scoring on the interior. So far, he is scoring 1.144 PPP on 97 drives (just over 19% of his total possessions). For comparison, Dalton Knecht is at 0.921 PPP on 76 drives (13.3%), Kevin McCullar is at 0.52 on 50 drives (14.4%), and Hunter Sallis is at 0.991 on 116 drives (23.1%).
As we can see below, Reeves consistently uses the threat of his outside shot to counter aggressive closeouts, attack the rim in a myriad of ways, score at the rim or on floaters, and even take sidestep pull-up threes. When defenders try to eliminate Reeves’s jumper, he is unphased and finds different ways to punish them.
With his ability to attack closeouts or launch off the catch, Reeves could be an ideal outlet for primary creators in the NBA. He has a good sense of spacing and knows how to find open pockets consistently. Whether it’s off a cut or capitalizing on a broken play, Reeves’s off-ball scoring versatility makes him an easy plug and play option in the NBA.
Reeves is currently scoring 1.23 PPP (68th percentile) while shooting 61.3% at the rim as well as scoring 1.07 PPP (88th percentile) while shooting 53.3% on floaters. Reeves also ranks in the 97th percentile in frequency on floaters, so his efficiency isn’t inflated by a small sample size. While the bulk of his interior scoring opportunities will come from attacking closeouts, he’s also proving that he can be put in motion and have actions run for him to exploit the defense in all three levels.
Here, we can see how Reeves has generated his 1.061 PPP (77th percentile) on handoffs. He keeps his defender on their heels, has great touch in the paint, and even has a useful combination of footwork and handle to exploit his defender’s momentum.
While Reeves isn’t the sprint-off-screens-and-hit-a-tough-movement-three type of shooter, as he’s shooting just 33.3% (8-24) on threes off of screens, he does consistently dice teams up from two. Defenders typically trail Reeves and go over screens, which creates a plethora of opportunities for him to attack the rim. Overall, Reeves is scoring 1.087 PPP (74th percentile) running off screens, but he’s also shooting 60% (24-40) from two.
Reeves isn’t much of a playmaker, but there have been some encouraging flashes of him creating out of these situations. Players like Duncan Robinson have shown us how important quick and accurate passing out of handoffs and off screens can be. It doesn’t have to be anything complicated, but capitalizing on shooting gravity to create for others with quick pocket passes or lobs can really transform an offense.
Here, Reeves receives the handoff from Aaron Bradshaw. As Reeves curls off the handoff, Bradshaw’s defender takes a step up to try and take away the three. Reeves recognizes that the paint is completely unoccupied, and the weak side defender is sticking to Reed Sheppard instead of tagging Bradshaw on the roll. Reeves lofts a pass into the space that leads Bradshaw directly to the rim and leads to a foul.
Antonio Reeves isn’t a lot of things. It’s easy to dwell on those and if they’re too much to overcome, I get it. However, doing so ignores the glaring fact that Reeves has been one of the most efficient, versatile, and high-volume off-ball scorers in the country this season. He’s a knockdown shooter from outside and consistently finishes at a high level inside the arc. While many off-ball shooters fear getting run off the line, Reeves welcomes it. He knows who he is as a player and plays within his role. The 2024 NBA Draft has a lot of uncertainties, but Antonio Reeves’ scoring ability isn’t one of them. Let’s not overthink it.