Examining Cam Christie's Quick Ascent
Minnesota's Cam Christie has seen his stock soar as of late. Is he simply a shiny new toy, or is he a real deal prospect?
“We love the subs
'Cause they are good to us
The Quizno’s subs
They are crunchy, they are tasty
They are warm because they toast them
They got a pepper bar”~ The Spongmonkeys in that Quiznos commercial from 2004.
A few weeks ago, I was looking for a podcast to binge on my work commute. I didn’t want to listen to someone break down the first round matchups of the NBA playoffs for the one millionth time. I didn’t want to listen to people cracking jokes. I didn’t want to hear the details of a grisly murder. I wanted something moderately amusing that wouldn’t shift my mood too much one way or another. I went to the Business Wars podcast, which covers stories of competing companies, and scrolled through some of their recent seasons. Subway vs. Quiznos? Perfect brain candy.
That was until my brain was taken over by an outside force. When the series got to the year 2004, they covered Quiznos’s bizarre but successful Spongmonkey ad campaign. The underdog sandwich brand aired commercials featuring these unique-looking animals horrifically singing a jingle about Quiznos subs. After hearing the song for the first time in years, it became stuck in my head for the remainder of the day.
I wasn’t anticipating having to think about the Spongmonkey commercial again. But we don’t really get to choose what we think about. Our brains don’t work that way. Sometimes, an outside force makes you think about something, and once you go down that path, you can’t shake it. Enter Cam Christie.
To be honest, I’d been a little bit lazy when it came to assessing Cam Christie. I’d watched a handful of his games and taken notes, just like I had with every prospect that I think has a chance to make it to the NBA at some point. But I’d never really thought about him that hard. He was a name on a checklist to get to, a guy that I’d worry more about later on. But then he announced he was testing the NBA Draft waters. And then Sam Vecenie ranked him 39th on his most recent Big Board. Jonathan Wasserman had him going 45th in a recent mock draft. It was becoming more and more clear that I had no choice but to think about Cam Christie, and I had to do it urgently. While he received a fair amount of acclaim throughout the season, there’s now a real chance that he might stay in the 2024 NBA Draft if he performs well during the pre-draft process. I requested to cover him for the site in our Slack just to up the ante and make sure I got my homework done. Let’s dig into why Christie is ascending, why some people may want to pump the breaks, and what all of that means for him as a potential 2024 prospect. But before we do that, follow me on Twitter/X.
Question: Why is Cam Christie’s stock suddenly soaring?
Answer: Because he’s a 6’6”, 18-year-old sharpshooter who knows how to play.
Cam Christie is a shooter shooter. There are all sorts of guys out there who can hug their toes to the corner three-point line and make 36% of their wide-open looks. But Christie is a real-deal, versatile sniper. He knocked down 39.1% of his triples while attempting 10.6 threes per 100 possessions. Digging into the tape, it’s the difficulty and variety of these attempts that put him over the top.
The first thing that pops on film is Christie’s silky-smooth pull-up jumper. His mechanics are seamless, steady, and repeatable: one foot slightly in front of the other, balanced base, clean energy transfer, high release, every single time. It’s no wonder he drained 39.4% of his pull-up threes this past season, per Synergy.
But in the NBA, most guys don’t get to play with the ball in their hands very often. Fear not! Christie is a marvelous off-ball option. He does a great job of relocating to maximize space for his teammates while simultaneously opening himself up. While Christie didn’t get to fly off screens much at Minnesota (four-for-six on those three-point attempts), his proficiency as a handoff shooter (42.9%) and transition marksman (37.9%) demonstrate that he has the upside to become a lethal movement shooter. Christie does a tremendous job of slamming on the breaks, immediately gathering his feet, and going up into one of the purest jumpers you’ve ever seen. If you started watching a clip of him sprinting into his shot off a handoff only once he’d set his feet, you’d think it was a routine spot-up. His body control is out of this world, and it’s why he’s so accurate on these difficult looks.
He’s not just a gunner, though. Christie has shown comfort with putting the ball on the floor and setting up his teammates. He demonstrates strong balance with the ball, he has a few counters, and he uses ball screens well to create space. When defenders play a more aggressive ball screen defense coverage, Christie does a great job of staying poised and using his length to find a simple but effective passing angle to create a 4-on-3 situation. He can string out to defenders with his dribble, and he finds the roll man on a consistent basis. His clear-headed decision-making process led to him posting 2.2 APG to only 1.2 TOV as a high-major freshman.
In total, Christie’s combination of shooting, decision-making, and height makes him an intriguing target. As I’ve noted multiple times throughout this draft cycle, your typical sixth through eighth man on a good team is 6’5.75”, shoots 39.1% from three, and has a 2.13-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Cam Christie is well on his way to being that type of player. Teams are always looking for players his size who shoot efficiently on high volume and take care of the ball. The fact that Christie did those things as a young-for-his-class freshman at the high-major level, though, makes him a rarity.
The question then turns to, “well, what does he do on the other side of the ball?” To be honest, I came away far more impressed than I’d anticipated. His 1.2 STL% and 1.1 BLK% leave a lot to be desired, but his instincts are better than those indicators might suggest.
On a basic, guarding-the-ball fundamentals level, Christie is a rock-solid defender. He slides well, his arms look long, he stays in his stance, and he flips his hips well. The off-ball stuff was what blew past my expectations. Simply put, Christie knows how to play, and he has an eye for detail. He knows where to go, and he knows the scouting report. When he covered a bad shooter, he made sure to close out short, and when he was on a marksman, he knew to apply pressure. He disrupts plays and tips passes by reading the opposing defense. Rarely is he out of position or behind the play. He makes his tags. I was stunned by how many times he rotated effectively to the rim and forced a miss on what would’ve otherwise been an easy dunk. There are some issues that we’ll get to in a minute, but there was a real level of polish, feel, and intelligence that should go a long way as he scales up to the next level.
Question: Are there any drawbacks?
Answer: It’s likely going to take him some time before he’s able to contribute.
It’s important to keep the positives in mind—Cam Christie is 6’6”, he has a fantastic jump shot, and he’s demonstrated a strong level of feel on both ends of the floor. With that being said, there are a few things that could limit his immediate impact at the next level. Most of them stem from his issues with physicality and lack of physical strength.
Christie is currently listed at 190 pounds, which will put him comfortably in the bottom quarter of the NBA from a weight standpoint. Out of the gate, that will put a limit on how many types of players he will be able to guard effectively. Bigger, more physical players are going to seek him out as a mismatch target. At the college level, Christie routinely died on screens and wasn’t able to get back in the play. It’s hard to imagine him fighting around picks at the NBA level out of the gate. He’s not particularly fast, either. Christie isn’t a quick-twitch athlete, so he lacks the recovery burst to get back into the play once he’s at a disadvantage. If he gets burned on a cut, it’s over. He can also be too slow to react on the ball defensively, which given his tools, can lead to him getting left in the dust. It’s also a huge part of why his defensive counting numbers fall flat.
Offensively, this presents a huge issue for him at the basket. First off, Christie doesn’t look to get downhill often. Most of his on-ball creation is predicated on generating space east-west or going backward. Secondly, when he does get to the basket, his lack of pop and strength inhibits him in a big way. He doesn’t have the power in his legs to explode up nor the power in his core to keep his touch through contact. He doesn’t seem particularly confident at the basket, opting to take off from too far away or rushing his look when he hears footsteps.
I keep a database of stats of successful NBA players from their pre-draft seasons. Looking at players in the 2/3 wing category, the median for percentage of shots taken at the rim in the halfcourt was 23.8%. The median shooting percentage on those attempts was 56.1%. Christie only took 13.3% of his halfcourt shots at the rim, and he converted a dismal 36.4% of them. Both of those figures fall into the “red flag” category.
Question: Is this stuff a complete dealbreaker?
Answer: No!
First off, keep his age in mind. At 18 years old, Christie was young for a freshman. If you want to be optimistic about anybody filling out their body and getting stronger, one of the youngest players in this class is a safe bet. As he fills out, his defensive physicality woes should be less of an issue. He was also competing in the famously rugged Big Ten conference. Secondly, rim-finishing struggles aren’t uncommon for young, sweet-shooting wings. Luke Kennard, Gary Trent Jr., and even his brother Max Christie all shot below the 50% mark on low volume at the rim during their pre-draft campaigns. While Cam is still behind that group, it does give room for encouragement.
Question: So, is Cam Christie going to get drafted in 2024?
Answer: We’ll have to wait and see.
I wish I didn’t have to give such a flimsy response! But this year, we are dealing with a wide-open draft class and heaps of players who are testing the waters but may return to school. Plus, the large amounts of NIL cash suddenly cascading into college hoops adds in another layer of complication. If Christie decides that he wants to get himself a bag in college and further develop his game, that’s beyond reasonable. In fact, that would probably be the most risk-free path to ensuring steady development for himself.
Still, you never know what could happen over the next few months. One year ago, Ben Sheppard was absent from most public-facing mock drafts. But during the pre-draft process, his size, shooting, and decision-making allowed him to climb the ranks at warp speed. There’s value in being that tall, knowing how to play, and being able to shoot the lights out. At 6’6” and 190 pounds with only average athleticism, Sheppard wasn’t all that different from Christie. He turned into a first-round pick, everyday player, and playoff rotation contributor for the Indiana Pacers. Sheppard was older and a better finisher, but he shows how a player like Christie could improve his stock and eventually earn a role on a playoff team. This isn’t a case of a player’s stock rising because people are bored in the wake of the college season’s conclusion—Christie is a productive young player who fits a mold that we see on many NBA rosters.
There are a lot of factors at play on both sides of the spectrum. For Christie, his personal preferences regarding his own development and his pre-draft performances could swing things one way or another. On the front office side, how teams weigh the value of his skill set in opposition to the patience that may be required to actualize it will determine the type of feedback Christie receives. Right now, I view him as a reasonable swing for a patient team in the second round. Either way, whether you anticipated it or not, it’s time to start thinking about Cam Christie.