February 2024 Scouting Roundtable
February 2024 Scouting Roundtable
The No Ceilings crew gathers together for another roundtable on the state of the 2024 NBA Draft class.
The month of March is a critical time for prospects. March Madness brings a lot more attention to the college ranks from those who are not deep in the draft space, and basketball leagues around the world are nearing their respective playoff pushes.
With all of that in mind, we here at No Ceilings gathered together to discuss some of the questions on our minds as players start to solidify their draft stocks with most of their respective seasons under most of their belts. For this roundtable, we gathered the crew together to answer some key questions about where this year’s draft class stands now, what has changed in the past month, and what we’re looking forward to in the month ahead. Without further ado, here are our February 2024 roundtable reflections.
1. Which player has been the biggest riser on your board in the past month?
Rucker: Devin Carter. He’s become one of the hottest names in the draft space and it’s well-deserved due to the year he’s put together. The 6’3” junior guard impressed early on in the year, averaging 16.2 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 3.2 assists in his first 13 games on splits of 47.7% from the field, and 38.8% from three-point range. But Carter took that momentum and mounting confidence to unleash his game to a completely different level. He's a tough-minded guard who isn’t afraid to go and mix it up in the paint, especially when it comes to making an impact on the boards. Carter is averaging 22.5 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.8 steals per game in his last 13 games. That includes shooting splits of 48.5% from the field and 40.5% from downtown. He’s shown the ability to completely take over games, including his recent 28-point, 11-rebound, six-assist, four-steal outing against Creighton.
Maxwell: Kyshawn George. I’d long tucked him away as a, “see ya next year, pal” guy. The reality is that between his size, shooting, and passing ability, he’s already really good at a lot of role-player stuff. Even if you’re not totally sold on the on-hall creation, he’s a good enough connector at 6’8” that he’ll be just fine. Defensively, he’s not the fastest and he doesn’t jump out of the gym, but he’s long, fluid, and intelligent. Just a, “you’ve got to take him” guy at a certain point, but also someone I could see a team swinging on higher than may be anticipated at the moment.
Metcalf: Johnny Furphy. At this point, there really doesn’t seem to be an argument against him as a Top 10 guy at the minimum. He’s currently in the Top 5 for me and I feel great about it. I get that his on-ball creation needs a lot of work and may limit him, but in a class that has so many questions, I’m more than happy taking an elite shooter, off-ball mover, and rebounder who is 6’9” with legit athleticism that early. On top of that, I like his defense too. There’s always room for improvement, but a lot of the concerns I’ve heard feel incredibly overblown. Just an easy guy to not overthink it with.
Rowan: While both Miami’s Kyshawn George and South Carolina’s Collin Murray-Boyles have shattered expectations and stamped their claim on the 2024 NBA draft, I’m with Metcalf: Kansas’s Johnny Furphy has risen the most on my board in the past month. As a refined shooter and versatile defender, Furphy’s role at the NBA is easy to project: he could fit in as an NBA wing without demanding high usage. Even without needing a ton of shots, Furphy has been a high-efficiency assassin from the field, recording double-digit points in all but one of his games in February while only shooting over ten times in one of them. Due to his high floor and still-untapped ceiling, Furphy is an easy choice for me.
Evan: Jared McCain. I had mentioned him in our roundtable last month as someone who felt like he was surging and starting to solidify himself as the best pro prospect on Duke’s roster this season. After his 35-point performance in the Blue Devils win over Florida State on February 17th, it’s undeniable at this point. I’ve got him comfortably in my top 10 currently and don’t see much changing that from now until the draft in June. McCain’s a sniper from beyond the arc, a tremendous shotmaker off the dribble, and he’s arguably one of the best rebounding guards in the class. He feels like a player that people will kick themselves for overthinking years from now.
Nick: Collin Murray-Boyles. He’s been on an absolute tear in February, and his draft stock has started buzzing accordingly. Murray-Boyles is a devastating interior scorer who’s also shown good touch with his passing. Our own Tyler Rucker compared him to Kentucky Julius Randle in his article yesterday, and when Murray-Boyles is hot, it’s pretty easy to see why.
2. Which player has been the biggest faller on your board in the past month?
Rucker: It might be a bit of a shocker for some, but it’s Carlton Carrington for me. Look, I’m still extremely intrigued and excited about the foundation of tools that Carrington has to work with down the road. He was one of the most impressive freshmen in the country to start the year. But as the 2023-24 season progresses, we started to see some of the questions arise when it comes to Carrington. He’s got the tools to be a dangerous multi-level scorer, especially if the outside shot comes around on a consistent level. Carrington shows some legit flashes of brilliance when it comes to his ability as a playmaker on the court. At 6’5” and still extremely young, there’s a lot to get excited about. For now, I think Carrington could do some serious damage with an offseason on the warpath and being a popular breakout candidate as a sophomore. But we’ve seen just how crazy the pre-draft process can get…for now, Carrington is in my “next year” category. But I imagine he will test the waters, and that NBA feedback will be interesting, to say the least.
Maxwell: There isn’t anybody I really need to pull back on, but it may be time to drop Kobe Johnson out of the second round. I was really hoping he’d have a hot stretch in conference play. Unfortunately, he just can’t buy a bucket this year. I still buy his decision making and defense, but he just doesn’t quite have the size or athleticism for me to bite if he can’t at least he a moderate threat to score.
Metcalf: DJ Wagner. I’ve been holding on to him as a second round flyer for a while, but the shooting and scoring struggles have been worrisome. I’ve enjoyed how much he’s grown as a passer and defender, but he still has a lot of work to do with both of those. If he’s not going to shoot or score at a reliable rate, on top of the playmaking and defensive inconsistencies, then I don’t really see the argument for him being a 2024 guy.
Rowan: Although he plays an attractive brand of basketball and has some clear pro-level skills, Judah Mintz has taken a bit of a tumble toward the second round for me. The reason for this isn’t his fault, but it’s something Nick and I touched on in our Deep Dives episode: what if Mintz returns and is the same player? He hoped to return to Syracuse and shore up his weaknesses as a shooter, passer, and defender. Instead, he’s virtually the same player statistically and on film, putting him in the same territory as a player like Terquavion Smith. Mintz is still putting up many points and has started to get to the line more, but it’s hard to justify him in the first round when other players have shored up their weaknesses and improved.
Evan: I’m going back to the Duke well with this one, it’s Mark Mitchell for me. I still buy his overall versatility and could see him developing into an extremely impactful role player at the next level one day. However, I’m not sure I’m willing to take a guy in the first round who shoots under 25% from the three-point line and 70% from the charity stripe. The shot just hasn’t come into form this season for the Duke sophomore. He’s looking more like a fringe second rounder to me, who might be better suited for the 2025 class.
Nick: I’m with Metcalf on this one; DJ Wagner has fallen out of my Top 60 for the first time this year. As someone who arrived at Kentucky as a score-first guard, his scoring and his efficiency have left a lot to be desired. I definitely still have hope for him to tie some things together in his game, but he’s starting to look more like a 2025 or later prospect in my eyes.
3. Every prospect goes through ups and downs on the court. Sometimes, a hot streak is a run of good luck; other times, it’s sustainable growth. Which prospect on a hot streak stood out to you? Is it real, or a mirage?
Rucker: Trey Alexander is pulling his best John Wick impersonation by announcing “he’s back.” Alexander has been a prospect I've personally stayed extremely patient with. Too many times with returners, they are given the keys to run the show and take on a much bigger role. That can either lead to a breakout year or some eventual rough patches. Alexander seems to have gotten through a “wall” during the 2023-24 NCAA season, and he’s started to play some fantastic basketball once again. At 6’4” with plenty of fun tools on both sides of the ball, he could be a name that slowly starts to creep back up boards with a strong end of the season.
Maxwell: Trey Alexander has been awesome lately, and I’m buying it. Even when his three-ball wasn’t falling, he was still converting over 50% of his pull-up twos. It’s exceptionally rare for someone to be THAT good on pull-ups and free throws and still be a subpar three-point shooter. Alexander seems to have found the right on-ball/off-ball balance. He’s also a stat-sheet stuffer, racking up assists and rebounds. His long arms and fundamentals work wonders on defense, and his added athleticism only helps.
Metcalf: Antonio Reeves has been awesome. There are some very real flaws to his game, but in terms of movement shooting, attacking closeouts, and off-ball scoring, there aren’t many better than him in this class. Reeves is looking like a guy with a few bankable NBA skills right away. He is far from perfect, but he feels like a guy who could easily outperform wherever he lands on draft night.
Rowan: While the first half of his season was polarizing, Isaiah Collier returned with force from his hand injury. In the five games he’s played in February, Collier averages 17.8 points per game, gets to the line nine times a game, and has a 2.5 assist-to-turnover ratio. He still hasn’t been an efficient shooter, but I’m buying the minor tweaks to his game that have recharged his draft stock. Few players are better than Collier at getting downhill, which, when coupled with his improved decision-making with the ball, makes him more of a complete point guard prospect for a team to mold. Even though he might not be the same top-tier prospect as he was hyped to be in the offseason, Collier deserves to get drafted in the first round on upside alone.
Evan: It’s got to be Collin Murray-Boyles right? If anyone’s burst onto the draft scene recently, it’s been him. The South Carolina freshman has had a phenomenal February, averaging 17.8 PPG, 6.7 RPG, and 2.1 stocks per game while shooting an absurdly efficient 68.7% from the field. His feel, passing, touch, and overall long-term potential seem way too much to pass up in a draft with so much uncertainty and variance in the first round. I’m very curious and more so eager to see if he can keep up this level of play going into the madness of March.
Nick: DaRon Holmes II has been on a tear recently, so anyone familiar with my draft takes over the past couple of seasons probably expected me to go with him here. He’s been red-hot lately, averaging 21.7 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 2.0 blocks per game in February. His three-point percentage has dipped a bit, but he’s shown that his shot has developed to the point where he’s a standstill shooting threat if defenses abandon him beyond the arc. I don’t think his recent play is a mirage at all, and I’m hoping that he can continue his hot streak into tournament season and hopefully get some more people on his bandwagon.
4. On the flip side, even the best prospects go through cold spells. One of our favorite sayings at No Ceilings (courtesy of Tyler Rucker) is “it just takes time.” Which prospect are you being patient with this month?
Rucker: It’s been a bit of a rough patch for Kansas Jayhawks guard Kevin McCullar. The versatile senior was having a sensational senior year and was becoming a legit riser in NBA draft circles. McCullar has been dealing with a nagging knee injury. He’s tried to play through it but hasn’t looked the same, and there’s been speculation he could miss the rest of the season. I’m sure that will result in his stock cooling off, but McCullar’s impact is noticeable with him out, as Kansas continues to look vulnerable without their veteran on the court. It’s easy to overreact at this time of the year when a prospect is out. I’m still high on McCullar, though, as a talent who will be ready to roll at the next level. The hope, for now, is that he can get healthy before tournament time.
Maxwell: PJ Hall had a bit of a slump in conference play, particularly behind the three-point line. Still, I’m not selling my stock. I totally buy the shot, especially given his range and how often he’s moving into it. I like what I’ve seen on the defensive end compared to last year. Ultimately, he’s a high-feel big who shoots it and plays his tail off. I still want that guy on my team.
Metcalf: I believe my answer last month was Tyler Kolek and that has worked out rather nicely. I’m still not ready to abandon ship with Ja’Kobe Walter. He’s struggled recently, but I continue to be intrigued with how he’s grown on the margins. I am still fully all in on the shot, and once the handle improves, the offensive upside with him is fascinating. He started to break out of his slump against Houston, so hopefully that’s the start of a strong end to the season for him.
Rowan: While he may need more time in college before jumping to the NBA, I’m not quite out on Milan Momcilovic as a 2024 guy yet. Granted, he has had a nightmarishly rough shooting month in conference play, as he’s only hitting 21.7% of his threes in February, which has dulled his biggest skill’s appeal. But the looks that aren’t going in still resemble the same tantalizing snipes that made him climb up on my draft board. Although he doesn’t do as much outside of his shooting at a high level right now, the high level of his shooting is enough to still consider him a boom-or-bust flier for a team that needs a designated flamethrower from deep. Unless the shooting continues to fall off of a cliff, I’ll still hold onto my belief in what Momcilovic can be as a shooter both in college and in the NBA.
Evan: I’m on the same wavelength as Rucker here, give me all the Kevin McCullar stock people are selling at the moment. After a scorching opening to his senior campaign, he’s definitely cooled down the past month or so. I even understand some of the skepticism surrounding McCullar’s durability in the long term, especially given he only played three games this month while continuing to nurse a knee injury. Ultimately, though, the way the Jayhawks have struggled in his absence at times only has emphasized his overall value as a player. He’s stamped his placement in the lottery for me, and it’s going to be difficult to convince me otherwise at this point.
Nick: I’m with Metcalf on this one; Ja’Kobe Walter’s recent cold stretch has not been enough to dissuade me from buying into his draft stock. The shooting efficiency isn’t pretty, but he’s also tasked with being Baylor’s bailout guy in a way that clearly tanks those numbers. Also, the efficiency might not be pretty, but the shot itself definitely is; I’m hoping that Walter goes on a tear to close out the season, but I’ll still be holding firm on his draft stock even if he doesn’t.
5. Which game next month are you most excited to watch?
Rucker: Marquette vs Creighton anyone? Excited to see what both teams can do to create some potential momentum heading into March Madness. Marquette is looking to get rolling again after a disappointing showing against UConn. Creighton has started to find their groove with an impressive win against UConn, but recently had a stinker against St.John’s. Tyler Kolek, Kam Jones, and Chase Ross going up against Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman should be juicy.
Maxwell: Kentucky vs. Tennessee. I like watching guys run up and down the floor and scoring the basketball a lot. I think those two teams can deliver on that premise. It’ll also be interesting to see how Kentucky deals with Dalton Knecht. Can Justin Edwards stifle him? Will we get another one of those games where Onyenso blocks 35 shots? It’ll be a good time
Metcalf: Kansas vs Baylor this Saturday should be fantastic. It’s a matchup of two of the top teams, two prospects I have in my top six, four in my first round, and a handful of other prospects who could easily find their way onto an NBA roster in some form or fashion. It’s going to be a lot of fun.
Rowan: I will cheat a bit, but hear me out: down under in the NBL, the Perth Wildcats are about to open their playoff push against the Tasmania JackJumpers. While there isn’t a prospect foil to Alex Sarr on the JackJumpers, there are still several interesting angles to explore with the matchup. For one, the Wildcats got bonked by the JackJumpers by 14 points less than two weeks ago, which adds some fuel to the playoff matchup’s fire. In that February 17th matchup, however, Sarr had one of his most productive offensive outings. He dropped 17 points, hit a three, finished efficiently in the paint, and had a perfect outing from the line. He also blocked a pair of shots, which speaks to his continued two-way potential. With three potential games against the team that beat them after the regular season, Sarr should have a trio of opportunities to further cement his draft stock at the zenith of the 2024 draft, which should make for an exciting and informative watch.
Evan: The Kentucky-Tennessee rematch on March 9th seems like a no-brainer. Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham combined for 51 points in the team’s first meeting, but it wasn’t enough to get the Wildcats victory. I’ll be curious to watch if that duo can replicate their performance from earlier this month. Although the most intriguing matchup that I’ll have my eyes on is Dalton Knecht vs. Justin Edwards. This is a fantastic opportunity for Edwards to reinsert himself back into the top of the draft and continue the momentum he’s seemingly building as we push towards the tourney.
Additionally, hoops heads should watch out for Serbian wonder kid, Nikola Topić’s potential return to the court in March. After suffering a knee injury in early January that was reportedly expected to keep him out for six weeks, Crvena Zvezda’s sports director Milan Dozet provided an update recently on Topić‘s rehabilitation process that indicated the young guard had returned to practicing with the team and started running again. If things continue to trend in the right direction for his recovery, Topić might be able to make one final push to stake his claim to be this year’s top overall pick.
Nick: Kentucky vs. Tennessee. Two great teams with a bunch of top-tier prospects, including a potential continuation of the Justin Edwards revival against a potential lottery pick in Dalton Knecht–what’s not to love?