Five Interesting Prospects on the Margins in the 2026 NBA Draft | The Prospect Overview
Championships are won the margins. As such, Maxwell examines five of the most interesting 2026 NBA Draft sleepers, including Rafael Castro, Dillon Mitchell, Tyler Nickel, and more!
I’ve always loved scouting on the margins. For starters, I always found it interesting. When I first started to dive deeper into the draft work, it was always easy to find content on the top prospects in the draft. The further down the board I went, though, the less information I was able to find. There was always a sense of mystery around prospects ranked in that range, and I wanted to fill that niche as much as possible when I first started to produce public-facing content.
But the real reason I enjoy scouting for sleepers is that, well, it’s important. In recent years, we’ve seen players like Alex Caruso, Sam Hauser, Gary Payton II, and Luke Kornet play meaningful roles for title teams after going undrafted. Plus, there’s been no shortage of big-time players selected in the second round. Obviously, there are the likes of Nikola Jokic and Jalen Brunson, but there’s also Isaiah Hartenstein, Aaron Wiggins, and Ajay Mitchell. Heck, the 2025 draft has already churned out Ryan Kalkbrenner (whose slide to the second round was indefensible even prior to hindsight), Sion James, and Will Richard, who all look the part of long-term NBA role players. Finding NBA-level production on a cheap contract is a boon for teams in this cap environment.
Today, we’re going to talk about five of the most interesting prospects on the margins. For my methodology, I only selected players currently ranked outside of the Top 60 for all of No Ceilings, ESPN, and The Athletic. These five guys might not necessarily be who I would consider the absolute best prospects on the margins, but they all have a few things that make them particularly interesting. Additionally, they are all set to be auto-eligible for the NBA Draft in June, barring further NCAA rule changes.
Rafael Castro, 6’10”, Center, George Washington
2025-2026 Stats: 15.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.2 TOV, 1.8 SPG, 1.2 BPG
What makes him so interesting?
Rafael Castro has a rare blend of athleticism and feel. The 6’10” big man possesses a level of speed you don’t often find at the center position. Whether he’s sprinting out on the open floor or rolling to the rim in the blink of an eye, Castro knows how to weaponize his quickness. Plus, he’s an excellent leaper with soft hands who loves to dunk the ball. Per Synergy, he ranks in the 85th percentile in roll man efficiency and the 93rd percentile in transition efficiency. It’s tough for defenses to slow him down, and they often resort to fouling him (.848 FTr). This blend of tools and production in common, low-maintenance play types for big men gives him a baseline level of offensive appeal.
What takes things to the next level, though, is Castro’s playmaking. Between this year and last, he’s tallied a 13.6 AST%, slinging 1.7 APG to 1.4 TOV. Castro can operate as a hub at the top of the key, reading the floor before finding open shooters and cutters. Plus, if an opposing big man plays him too tight, he might be able to turn on the jets and simply blow past them. All the better, his functional handle and ability to keep his eyes up on the move make him a dangerous passer on the go, too. He’s not just a standstill guy who accrues assists by making prescribed passes during the course of a set play—he can genuinely put it on the floor and read defenses as they collapse. Few players have both Castro’s rim-running prowess and playmaking skill.
There’s reason for intrigue defensively, too. Few big men can generate pick-six possessions quite like Castro. His speed allows him to dart into passing lanes before sending home a dunk in transition. His 2.5 STL% last year was impressive, but this year, that number has jumped to 4.2%, and outlier number for his position. Rotationally, he covers ground more like a wing than a big. His lateral agility enables him to switch seamlessly onto smaller players. Castro’s bounce shows up on this end, too, as able to soar for highlight reel rejections around the basket (5.4 BLK%).
Why is he on the margins?
There are a few holdups with Castro. The one I hear most often is his frame, as he’s skinny and listed at 220 pounds. Bigger guys can knock him around on both ends of the floor. If he can’t hold his line with his dribble, the functionality of his playmaking could be diminished. He lacks some polish on defense, too. George Washington’s scheme allows him to act as an aggressive roamer, but in more traditional moments, he can be a hair late to rim rotations, out of position in drop coverage, and struggle to stay vertical against contact. Additionally, I do think front offices may be more skeptical about mid-major prospects this year and going forward, as those ranks continue to be thinned out by the transfer portal. So, if teams consider Castro an undersized big man with subpar defensive fundamentals who simply beats up on lesser competition, they likely won’t be as excited about him.
Conclusion
I feel like Rafael Castro has been a victim of circumstances outside of his control. He’s playing at the mid-major level during a season in which NBA front offices are paying the least attention to prospects there in quite some time. Additionally, this draft happens to be loaded with talent at the big man positions. Still, Castro’s been a Top 60 guy for me since the pre-season, and that’s still where I have him now. He’s built for the pace of the modern NBA. He gets up and down the floor fast, he’s skilled, and he’s selfless. Offensively, he can produce both in transition and the halfcourt thanks to his rim running and ability to read the floor. Defensively, he possesses a rare level of agility for someone with his length. It’s not just that Castro has the potential to bring value on both sides of the ball, but a rather unique brand of value as well. While physicality issues could derail things for him, I’m ultimately willing to bet on his combination of tools, smarts, and unorthodox production at a certain point. I feel like he’s one of those guys who will rise once the pre-draft process gets going and people start to focus on him.
Dillon Mitchell, 6’8”, Forward, St. John’s
2025-2026 Stats: 9.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.5 APG, 0.8 TOV, 1.6 SPG, 1.0 BPG
What makes him so interesting?
Dillon Mitchell always makes his presence felt. He’s always been best on defense and on the glass. He’s an excellent point-of-attack defender. Mitchell does a great job of sitting in his chair, playing proactively with his lateral steps, keeping his hips square, and utilizing his chest. His aggressive approach, agility, and strong frame make gaining any sort of advantage over him a near impossibility. Off the ball, his activity is tough to match. He’s constantly flying all over the place and making things happen. He can burst into passing lanes or meet opponents high above the rim to swat their shots. As a result, Mitchell has a 3.6 STL% and a 3.9 BLK% on the year, both of which grade out really well for a forward prospect. Even better, he doesn’t foul very often (3.4 fouls per 100 possessions). Mitchell can also end possessions through his work on the defensive glass (career 19.8 DRB%).
To be blunt, Mitchell had long been a boring offensive prospect. He’s a great athlete who can get out and run in transition. Plus, the bounce and physicality that make him a force on defense enable him to cover everything inside (76.9% on his halfcourt rim attempts per Synergy), dunk frequently (18 on the year so far), and collect boards (11.2 ORB%). But when he first got to college, there wasn’t much to work with from a skill standpoint. He registered 14 total assists in 664 minutes as a freshman. That’s not just uninspiring, it’s downright bad. Over the past few years, though, Mitchell has made incredible playmaking improvements. He’s become a solid ball handler and a razor-sharp passer, leading to a career-high 19.0 AST% so far this season. Even when plays break down or get messy, Mitchell can be counted on to put the ball on the deck, get inside, and find an opening. The fact that Mitchell can function as a defensive game wrecker who not just finishes plays in the open floor, but also makes them for others, makes him far more intriguing. Plus, there could be some functionality as a short-roll passer here, though we haven’t seen it yet.
Why is he on the margins?
Dillon Mitchell can’t shoot right now. We’re not talking about a below-average shooter; we’re talking about a non-shooter. Over the course of his college career, Mitchell has taken 47 total threes and made only 10 of them, good for 21.7%. His results at the charity stripe aren’t great, either, as he’s a career 49.3% shooter from line. NBA teams will not feel the need to account for him on the perimeter at all, barring outlier developments. At 6’8”, that’s troubling. As a result, he’ll either need to make significant headway or find a niche in a system with plenty of other players who can space the floor.
Conclusion
During Mitchell’s freshman season, I remember talking to someone in basketball who asked me which projected 2023 prospect I was lower on than consensus. I told him, “I don’t get the Dillon Mitchell buzz at all.” He was a 6’8” center who couldn’t do anything with the ball. Given that he was the number five prospect in the high school class of 2022’s RSCI ranking, one could look at Dillon Mitchell as a “margins prospect” and write him off as a disappointment. I think the opposite is true. Mitchell was an athletic, hard-charging player with a style that didn’t lend itself to the NBA at all. In spite of that, he had lofty expectations placed on him. He could’ve folded and wallowed in self-pity when he wasn’t a one-and-done prospect, but he did the opposite. He kept getting better and rounding out his game. He’s a far more skilled, far craftier player than he was four years ago. The three-point shot has never come into being for him, and that’s definitely been a hindrance to his stock. But Mitchell’s defensive production, point-of-attack versatility, rebounding, and newfound playmaking prowess give him a chance to find a home as a gadget player who positively contributes to the pace and possession battle on both ends of the floor. A few years back, I didn’t get the Dillon Mitchell buzz at all. Now, I’m wondering why he doesn’t have more of it.
Amani Lyles, 6’7”, Forward, Akron
2025-2026 Stats: 15.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.6 TOV, 0.9 SPG, 0.7 BPG
What makes him so interesting?
It’s hard to run a BartTorvik query right now that doesn’t populate Amani Lyles’ name. The big-bodied forward is in the midst of a breakout campaign that’s seen him stuff the entirety of the stat sheet. He’s a well-rounded offensive player. Per Synergy, his most common play type is spot-ups, and he’s effective in that role. He knows how to relocate into openings on the perimeter, and he has a little bit of dynamism on his shot. After taking only three total three-point shots during his first two college seasons, Lyles has hit 45.7% of his triples on a rock-solid 7.1 attempts per 100 possessions this season.
Lyles can play inside the arc, too. He has a bruising face-up game and can attack the rack from the perimeter. As a screener, he can either pop or roll to the rim. And just like he’s a comfortable off-ball player as a spot-up shooter, Lyles can also find holes in the defense to cut into for easy buckets. And while he’s certainly more perimeter oriented now than when he was a non-shooter, Lyles’ career 12.0 ORB% shows that he can do work on the boards when need be. His past as an interior bully shows up in positive ways, as he can post up and hammer out mismatches inside. He sees the floor, too, as evident by his 18.7 AST% on the year and solid reads he’s put on tape.
He’s a well-rounded defender, too. Lyles can use his length and physicality to stifle drivers. He has a good nose for entry passes and lazy perimeter skips, getting his hands on those when they present themselves. His strong chest goes a long way on the interior, as he does a great job of walling up and using his verticality around the basket. Lyles’ career 5.7 BLK% and 2.4 STL% speak to his ability to make plays on defense. He’s not afraid to get physical on the glass over here, either, leading to a 23.1 DRB% on the year.
Why is he on the margins?
As I mentioned with Rafael Castro, I do think there’s an increased level of skepticism being applied to mid-major prospects this season. But on top of that, Lyles has really come out of nowhere. He was a negative BPM player in the MAC during his first two college seasons, and he only started seven games last year. That leads to two separate issues. The first is that there’s likely some fear of regression from those monitoring, especially as it pertains to his jump shot. The second is that I don’t even think a lot of people have thought to look at Amani Lyles because he was so far off the radar coming into the year. So, it’s both a case of “people haven’t caught onto him” and “we need to continue to see a larger sample because this came out of nowhere.” Plus, the film isn’t perfect. He can be heavy-footed laterally, his handle isn’t anything to write home about, and he can force shots on the interior.
Conclusion
I love a good surprise riser. One of my favorite things I’ve done as a scout was covering Cedric Coward for my No Stone Unturned series after his sophomore year at Eastern Washington. Nothing brings me more joy than finding a player on the margins who either goes on to exceed expectations or is already in the process of doing so. That’s why I was so giddy to cover Amani Lyles for this piece, even though I mentioned him in a Quick Hit a few weeks back. The more I see, the more intrigued I become. Amani Lyles just checks a lot of boxes. He’s big, he’s strong, he hits shots, he rebounds, he can pass, and he makes things happen on defense. Again, I get the skepticism about mid-major competition and his priors, but I do think he deserves to be on the radar at this point.
Tyler Nickel, 6’7”, Wing, Vanderbilt
2025-2026 Stats: 15.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.8 TOV, 1.0 SPG, 0.7 BPG
What makes him so interesting?
Tyler Nickel is a dead-eye shooter. This season, he’s hit a preposterous 47.9% of his threes while taking 14.3 attempts per 100 possessions. While he may see some regression as the season goes on, he’s always been outstanding from deep. Over the course of his college career, he’s connected on 40.7% of his triples on high volume. The way he goes about his business makes it all the more interesting. Nickel can move into his shot, going 9-for-23 in transition, 3-for-7 off screens, and 4-for-9 off the pop this year per Synergy. Even when he doesn’t fully have his balance under him, he still has the touch to convert. Plus, he gets his shot off really fast, and he’s unafraid of high velocity closeouts, which should help with his scalability as he moves to the next level. We’ve already seen him hit numerous threes from NBA distance, too.
Nickel has a few other traits that bode well for him, too. For starters, he has a strong frame and is listed at 222 pounds. That Sam Hauser-style bulk goes a long way for shooters at the next level. Nickel knows how to leverage his frame defensively to make opponents uncomfortable. Plus, his situational awareness allows him to make plays at a respectable clip for a player in this archetype (1.8 STL%, 2.7 BLK%). Offensively, he takes good care of the ball, registering a microscopic 6.6 TOV%, another trait common among off-ball snipers. Lastly, he’s not totally ground-bound, having already tallied four dunks on the year.
Why is he on the margins?
Vanderbilt has been awesome this season. While a team’s strong performance typically helps a prospect’s standing, that hasn’t quite happened with Nickel yet. For starters, he’s not even the most prominent sleeper named “Tyler” on his own team, as super-producing guard Tyler Tanner has burst onto radars with his gaudy, wide-ranging production. Another guard, Duke Miles, has put together his best season yet and picked up steam. Coming into the season, the hot names to know for draft sickos were AK Okereke and Devin McGlockton. Then, Jalen Washington has emerged as a skilled big who can finish plays and defend. Simply put, there’s been a lot of positive stuff going on for the entirety of this team, and that’s limited how much spotlight any one player can receive. Beyond that, though, Nickel has some flaws. He can be clunky as a lateral mover. His handle and downhill game aren’t anything noteworthy. Nickel’s never offered much on the glass on either end, either.
Conclusion
Every year, it feels like a few sharpshooters emerge from the margins of the most recent draft class, and everybody thinks, “Oh man, we should’ve given this guy more credit.” While I can’t sit here and tell you with 100% confidence that it’s going to be Tyler Nickel this year, I can tell you that I think he’s got a chance at being one of those dudes. He’s long been an exceptionally accurate shooter with versatility to spare, he takes care of the ball, and he has the requisite strength to compete at the next level. I think he has a better chance of hearing his name called on draft night than people realize. Even if he tops out as more of an innings-eater, his archetype is a low-maintenance one that’s easy to plug into a variety of different contexts. I’m bullish on Tyler Nickel and would encourage you to buy stock now.
Nate Johnson, 6’3”, Guard, Kansas State
2025-2026 Stats: 12.3 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.8 TOV, 2.3 SPG, 0.3 BPG
What makes him so interesting?
Nate Johnson brings a high level of physicality, athleticism, and competitiveness to the floor that lends itself to meaningful, important production. Let’s start off on the defensive end. Johnson is powerfully built at 215 pounds. If I’m running Kansas State’s football program, I’m begging him to give me one year of college eligibility so I can spam HB Dives up the middle with him. The former MAC Defensive Player of the Year leverages his strength to guard further up the lineup than most of his size. Plus, he’s a good lateral mover with a potent north-south burst. As a result, he accrues steals at a high clip. Whether he’s bullying an opposing guard into coughing it up at the point of attack or sprinting to pick off a pass on the perimeter, Johnson is a great contributor to the possession battle, as evident by his 4.0 STL%.
He’s not one of those ground-bound, “bowling ball” style movers, either. He’s a killer in transition, ranking in Synergy’s 93rd percentile in both frequency and efficiency on that play type. He can get out and run before finishing above the rim, or he can move into his jumper from deep. Still, he has utility in a half-court setting. Kansas State has weaponized him as a lob target this season. Plus, he’s been a great shooter off the catch this year, going 44.8% on spot-up threes. On ball, he’s a reliable decision maker who has the handle to make his man dance before blowing past them.
Why is he on the margins?
There are a few things that give me pause with Nate Johnson. The big issue is his shot. On paper, that might sound nuts, as he’s gone 42.6% from deep on solid volume this season. But for his career, Johnson is only a 34.8% shooter from three. He’s only scored nine points on 18 pick-and-roll possessions this season, per Synergy. Teams can go deep under ball screens against him, and he’s been struggling to capitalize on the space given to him in those settings this season. Additionally, he’s always been more of a secondary creator than a primary, never positing an assist rate over 20 or a usage rate over 24. So often, the players who succeed as NBA role players are those who were overqualified at the college level and then scaled down into a smaller role. For Johnson, he’ll need to continue to thrive in a similar role against better competition, which has historically proven difficult for most.
Conclusion
I go back and forth on Nate Johnson. He needs to continue to progress as a shooter so that defenses have to worry about him in the halfcourt. It’s also worrisome that he’s never totally blown it out of the water as a playmaker. While bigger initiators are becoming more common, the skill threshold for guards is still very high, and it’s hard to supply surplus value as one who’s mostly off the ball. Still, Johnson might have the traits to pull it off. He’s been deadly as a spot-up guy this year. Plus, I love what he offers as an early offense/defense threat in this press-heavy era. He’s a lethal transition scorer who thrives at forcing turnovers, and that’s at a premium right now. We’ll see where the shot ultimately settles, but regardless, it’s time to start paying attention to Nate Johnson, who could find an NBA home as a versatile guard.
There won’t be any Quick Hits this week due to a lack of games and my hectic Christmas travel schedule. But the good news is that this column still isn’t over! No Ceilings+ subscribers get an additional bonus section every week! This week, I wrote about Jayden Quaintance! There is no better way to support the work that we do at No Ceilings than by subscribing to NC+. I believe our track record of consistent, thoughtful work over the past four years speaks for itself. It’s only $8/month or $80/year, so please consider supporting the work that we do. You’ll get our pre-season draft guide, access to our Discord, this extra section of my column each week, bonus columns from our entire team, live scouting reports, and MUCH MORE!
