Five Offseason Findings: Early Thoughts on the 2026 NBA Draft Class
After spending the offseason diving into the film 2026 NBA Draft Class prospects, Stephen lets you know what to expect for the coming season!
I don’t know about you, but I always feel like there are several narratives going on in each and every draft cycle. Whether it’s thoughts on the incoming crop of freshman phenoms or predictions on which returning players could have breakout seasons, there is no shortage of stories as to which players you need to keep an eye on. The best thing I could recommend to anyone is to dive into the film yourself to formulate your own opinions. With that being said, I also recognize not everyone has the same resources—nor the same amount of time—as we have here at no Ceilings. What I want to offer up here for you is some of the findings that I’ve seen over my summer of studying. As always, there will inevitably be some players that exceed expectations or fall short of them—but that’s what makes this fun!
With the 2026 cycle looming near, here are the FIVE things you need to know about this class!
1. Is This Class Barren on Big Men?
This will be one of the focal points of this class—potentially throughout the entire cycle. One of the trends that we saw come back into vogue in the NBA is the “double big” lineup. With teams going away from the “small-ball five”, it’s the perfect time to be a large human with skill, which is why I’m a little (serious, only a tad) bit worried about this class.
In the freshman class, incoming Houston Cougar big man Chris Cenac Jr. is the prize to be won at this position. Listed at 6’10”, Cenac isn’t towering, and at 233, he isn’t necessarily imposing. What’s going to make him a potential polarizing prospect is whether or not he is going to do the big man things well enough. Cenac can do a bit of ball-handling. He can do some shooting. He is also an advanced passer for his position. That’s all well and good, but there will be some concerns when it comes to his screen setting, rebounding, and rim deterrence.
The next prospect that will be lobbying as the top big man is Kentucky transfer Jayden Quaintance. “JQ” is a freak athlete with crazy twitch. He has the potential to be the best defensive prospect within this class. There were some flashes of passing feel on the offensive end at Arizona State, so you have to feel like Coach Pope will help accentuate that aspect of his game with his scheme. What’s working against Quaintance is that he’s “only” listed at 6’10” and some change (teams typically embellish their players’ size). He’s listed at 255, which is about 40 pounds more than what he was as a Freshman. We’ll see. On top of that, Quaintance couldn’t do anything as a scorer once he was beyond arm’s reach of the basket. We’ll see what strides he makes at Kentucky.
Outside of those two, it starts getting a little scary because there isn’t a “consensus” next man up. You can look at the production of a JT Toppin last season, but he isn’t the biggest guy and, if you’re looking at him at the four, he hasn’t shown himself skilled enough to play that position full-time. You can be hopeful that Magoon Gwath can utilize the skill that he brings as a shooter, ball-handler, and shot blocker at 7 feet tall, but is he going to be strong enough to hold down that position? Patrick Ngongba has garnered some buzz out of Duke, but he hasn’t taken on a large role to this point. There is a heavy amount of projection with him, on top of him playing on a ridiculously loaded roster.
There are more names—Tarris Reed Jr., Patrick Ngongba II, Alex Condon, Tomislav Ivisic, Henri Veesaar, etc.—that have been mentioned in this class but again, there is a ton of projection in their off seasons. The good news is that the door at the center position is wide open, which usually means that some fun and unexpected prospects will take us by storm.
2. The Guards WILL Heavily Impact the Quality of this Draft Class!
This group of guards enter into, perhaps, the most interesting time in NBA history. If you look at NBA teams, the one position most teams are good on are their guards. This also happens to be the projected strength of this class—both in quality and quantity.
Darryn Peterson is THE guard of this class, and could be the top player taken in the 2026 NBA Draft. The comparisons have already come in strong, ranging between Kobe Bryant, Anthony Edwards, and Andrew Wiggins. Peterson himself has stated that he models his game after players like Luka Doncic and Damian Lillard. That players are apparent in the way he plays with aggressiveness, skill, and feel. He’s pretty tough on the defensive end as well.
Mikel Brown Jr. is widely regarded as the fourth overall prospect coming into this cycle, coming in behind the aforementioned Peterson, as well as Cameron Boozer and AJ Dybantsa. Despite his thinner frame, Brown plays the game with an immense amount of poise. He possesses a good handle and tremendous vision, which gives Brown the runway to be a lead initiator at the NBA level if all things break right. As he continues to get stronger, Brown should be able to be more dynamic in the paint, as he should be able to be more impactful on the defensive end. Should things go as planned for Mikel, the team with the fourth pick in the draft may not be as heartbroken as they would be in other drafts.
Outside of Darryn and Mikel, there is an embarrassment of guards who have a strong contingent of believers. Bennett Stirtz has drawn comparisons to Stephen Curry, Tyrese Haliburton, and LaMelo Ball, and is coming off an enchanting season with Drake. Now at Iowa, he’ll have a chance to solidify his stock. Labaron Philon, returning to Alabama, has a chance to show the shooting stretch he closed on was not a fluke, and has a season to show off some (hopefully) improved strength. Adrian Wooley at Louisville and Paul McNeil at North Carolina State have some similarities to Mikel Brown Jr.’s game, which could impact how NBA teams approach the draft (should these players all declare and stay in). There are those (myself included) who are optimistic about Cayden Boozer’s game.
John Blackwell, Tyrone Riley IV (if you project him as a guard), Tahaad Pettiford, Darius Acuff Jr., Boogie Fland, Shon Abaev (if you project him as a guard), and so many more could all add to the strength of this class.
With this in mind, teams will have to reckon with draft philosophy, and I find this fascinating already—especially considering how we think about how teams are currently outfitted at the position. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Braden Burries is good enough to be a first round talent, but will he want to be the 25th pick? Will he be happy with being the 30th pick? What about the 32nd? The 35th? That’s where things could be fun, because there will be one or several prospects that come out of nowhere. Whether or not guards will want to be late picks, or return to college for millions of dollars could also greatly impact how top-heavy this class could be. This will give another layer to the importance of this position this season.
3. Is This Year the Year of the Returners?
This is a sentiment I share with my No Ceilings colleague Tyler Metcalf, but I feel like the returning prospects will give the freshmen a run for their money when the draft rolls around. Outside of the projected Top 3 prospects, there is a lot of variance as to where the other Freshman prospects should be ranked. In the last six NBA Draft Classes, an average of 13.7 Freshmen have been drafted in the First Round. Juxtapose that to just 3.2 Seniors being drafted in the First Round, and the numbers would suggest that teams will simply take the younger talent—even if they haven’t produced. Potential vs. Production is a tale as old as time in the NBA Draft, but there are enough talented returning players that could buck the trend of drafting youth.
Outside of the names I’ve already dropped, there are even more returners who have a real shot at being drafted in the coming draft. Yaxel Lendeborg had tons of fans playing at UAB last season, and he has since transferred to Michigan. “Yax” brings a ton of skills to the Wolverines, and he could help to fill in the production left after Danny Wolf was drafted by the Brooklyn Nets. Lendeborg improved as a shooter last season, and he would benefit even more with another season of good three-point shooting. Now that he will be playing along size of Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara, Yax should play a more clearly defined role on both ends of the floor—which should answer whatever questions NBA teams had on him last season.
Thomas Haugh was a name that burst onto the scene last season as a Sophomore with Florida. Hustle is a skill, and Haugh demonstrated that for the Gators all season, giving multiple efforts on defense, snatching rebounds, setting screens, and going after loose balls. Beyond the effort stuff, he also showed off some shooting ability. Haugh shot 34% from deep on 6 attempts per 100 possessions. Haugh played in a robust frontcourt rotation, which allowed him to play a more frenetic style. He’ll need to show he can be more fundamentally sound on defense on a consistent basis to put some defensive concerns that come with his style of play at ease.
Tyrone Riley IV is another returner who is worth closely monitoring. Riley had an interesting Summer—doing work with Team USA as well as Damian Lillard’s Formula Zero camp. After a strong Freshman campaign, many are hoping for a Sophomore jump. Riley has tons of athleticism, and he has shown the ability to be a floor spacer off the catch. What’s interesting about his projection is that Tyrone could develop more as an on-ball guard, or he could be a legitimate wing prospect. He’ll need to show more creativity with the ball in order to become a top guard, but it’s nothing to rule out with his commitment to stay in San Francisco.
Aside from those names, players like Karter Knox, Isaiah Evans, Christian Anderson, Donovan Dent, Milos Uzan, Xaivian Lee, Kam Williams, Alex Karaban, Miles Byrd, and Joseph Tugler could all be returning prospects who could work their way into First Round consideration in the coming 2026 NBA Draft.
4. Who Are the International Men of Mystery?
Despite NIL bringing in players from international clubs to play collegiate basketball, the NBA Draft has still brought over a fair share of “traditional” international prospects over the past two seasons. With six and five prospects coming from international programs in the past two drafts, is it safe to think that we could expect a similar number in the 2026 Draft Class? Maybe…we just may not know who those names are at this point in time.
Karim Lopez has been touted as the best basketball prospect in Mexican basketball history, and he has already kicked off his second season in the NBL. Lopez has great size and a fair amount of strength. Not only has he shown some solid scoring flashes, but he has the type of athleticism that can sneak up on you. It’s been discussed in some No Ceilings work already, but Lopez came into the season with some injury issues that directly contributed to some conditioning/rust he needs to knock off. If you look at how he did in the very physical NBL last season at full strength, there is reason to be optimistic in his long-term projection.
Joining Karim Lopez in the NBL this season is Dash Daniels, the younger brother of Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels. There was some legit skepticism on how Dash would fare in the physical NBL, but Dash has shown some encouraging developments on both sides of the ball already. Dash has demonstrated some defensive playmaking that is reminiscent of what Dyson has done in the NBA. On offense, Dash has some slick passing feel and has shot around 40% from deep (albeit on low volume). If Dash can keep up this production throughout the entire year, he could be one of the more impactful international prospects in this class.
After those two, it starts to get a little murky in terms of players who could be drafted from an international club. While he has said that he isn’t particularly worried about coming out in the 2026 Draft Class, Miikka Muurinen opted to play ball for KK Partizan this season. Muurinen isn’t exactly the most polished prospect to date, but maybe there is a chance that he can develop overseas as opposed to a prep school? Still, even if he doesn’t play a ton but shows promising flashes in a limited role, that could be enough for NBA teams to be interested in his long-term projection.
Hugo Farcorat and Noa Kouakou-Heugue would be the next few names that many believe could be international names of significance. Everything would have to break right for those five names to be taken in the First Round of the Draft, but there will likely be a lesser-known name that will break onto the scene.
5. There Are Parallels to the 2023 NBA Draft Class!
It’s sort of scary how similar the preseason buzz surrounding the 2026 draft class is to what we saw with the 2023 class. That’s not to say that there is a physical oddity that compares to Victor Wembanyama, but that class featured three prospects that figured to vault the class into rare air. Scoot Henderson hasn’t panned out to be the generation guard prospect many hoped he would become, and Brandon Miller hasn’t been on the court enough to know exactly how good he can become. Victor Wembanyama has already proven to be the outlier many expected (despite having to deal with injuries of his own). Amen and Ausar Thompson, Cason Wallace, and Dereck Lively II have shown to be difference makers within the class—and, to some degree, have truly saved the class from being a disappointment. Those players have done this despite not being projected to be the better prospects within that class.
The 2026 class also has three names at the top who could make this class one for the ages.
Darryn Peterson has already received some “the best guard prospect since” tags to his game—which is sort of scary considering Scoot Henderson had the exact same narratives coming into his season with the Ignite. AJ Dybantsa was once considered to be the best prospect within this class, but was leapfrogged by Peterson. Dybantsa didn’t attack his senior year of high school with the same ferocity he did as a junior, which naturally raises concerns. This has resulted in him becoming the consensus #3 player in the 2026 class. There are still reasons to be optimistic about him as a pro, due to his length and offensive skill. Oh, let’s also not forget the defensive intensity he showed in FIBA over the Summer. Don’t be surprised if he is the Brandon Miller doppelganger within this class. Lastly, we have one of the most decorated high school hoopers in recent history in Cameron Boozer. Boozer is sort of like a horror villain in that he will march along at his own pace and strike when you least expect it—getting 20 and 10 without you realizing it. There is a real chance the prodigy forward/big will be the best defender in the class, and show a bevy of ways he can contribute on offense.
Just like the 2023 draft class, the 2026 class features some impressive talents at the top, but who could be a surprise contender?
Nikolas Khamenia will team with Cam Boozer, and he has a real chance to be a real player in the NBA. With good size, Khamenia shows some real passing chops and a knack for scoring at multiple spots. Braylon Mullins has a legit claim to be the best shooter in this class. Mullins’s high school film shows a player who runs all over the floor, has a quick trigger, and can play-make at a real clip. Koa Peat is a forward with real strength. Like Khamenia, Peat can pass at an above-average rate, but he is also a stout defender. Shon Abaev could be the next “Jumbo Creator” that NBA teams will drool over. Not only can he handle the rock, but Abaev is a good passer, and figures to be a multi-level scorer. Dwayne Aristode could truly be the dark horse as a Freshman, playing at Arizona with Koa Peat. Aristode is a rocked-up Forward that projects to be a real “3-and-D” prospect with size. Tounde Yessoufou is the next Baylor prospect that NBA teams will be lined up to see. Tounde just wrapped up being the leading scorer in the history of California basketball, and has an NBA-ready frame. Like most other Baylor prospects, he’ll need to show the shot is for real. If it is, Yessoufou can be the kind of athletic wing who applies pressure to the rim and the point of attack that hits the league hard.
The 2023 NBA Draft Class had some lofty expectations place upon it, but it hasn’t lived up to the comparisons to the 1996-level classes. Those results could impact the dialogue with this class in interesting ways. Will evaluators hedge their assessments of prospects in this group based on their 2023 misses? Or will folks double-down on their evals? Time will tell, but this year has the makings of an all-time cycle!
Follow me on Twitter: StephenGHoops
Catch me on BlueSky: StephenGHoops
Catch the Draft Sickos show LIVE on the No Ceilings NBA channel:
To the big man question, I wouldn't be shocked, especially given the eyes Peterson will draw, if Flory Bidunga ends up with a first round grade this year after being liberated from Dickinson and Adams
i like the point you made on Burries -- i'm wondering if some of these higher 2025 recruits (Cenac strikes me as the guy for this, Alijah Arenas too due to injury) wait to declare until 2027 where they have a chance to go into the T5.
great work, this cycle is going to rock