Four Players, More Combinations: The Top of the 2026 NBA Draft
With the 2026 NBA Draft just days away, Rowan looks into the many multiverses of what could happen for Cameron Boozer, AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, and Caleb Wilson in the first four picks!
The NBA draft is almost upon us. Oh, what a glorious day. Yes, I’m being melodramatic, but it really is an unofficial holiday that I love to celebrate. One of the many perks of my job is that I almost always have that day off, which means I get to revel in the pre-draft suits, red carpet interviews, and real-time selections. As a draft writer, it really doesn’t get any better than seeing the fruits of my many hypotheticals smashed to smithereens with the singular draft order of the night.
Each draft night is different. Some drafts, like the 2023 or 2025 NBA drafts, have an overwhelming favorite at the top who dominates the conversation. Others, like the 2013 or 2024 NBA drafts, are more unpredictable at their apex. There’s always a shocking selection in the lottery, an unsuspecting fall from grace, and a slew of steals in the second round. While lottery picks are statistically more likely to achieve higher-end success in the NBA, any player drafted at any spot can become a star, as Nikola Jokic and Isaiah Thomas have shown in recent memory.
2026’s particular draft quirks are centered around the top of the draft. Heading into the NCAA season, there was a rough consensus of a three-way battle for the top spot between Duke’s Cameron Boozer, BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, and Kansas’s Darryn Peterson. As the season wore on, scientifically speaking, a ton of stuff happened on the court. Peterson suffered through a confusing, injury-plagued year, Dybantsa had some of the highest individual highs among the top prospects, and Boozer led his team the farthest in the NCAA Tournament. Amidst each of their star seasons, a fourth can’t-miss prospect emerged in UNC’s Caleb Wilson.
By the time that the NBA draft lottery rolled around, there was a different vibe of fervor in the air. Unlike the year prior, when it felt more like an all-or-nothing hope for the top slot, the general sentiment was that a top-four pick would net you a franchise cornerstone talent. That made for an eventful Sunday, as the Washington Wizards held onto their top spot, while the Utah Jazz, Memphis Grizzlies, and Chicago Bulls all experienced potentially franchise-changing jumps up into the top four of the draft.
Since then, the conversation has moved from who will pick where to who will get picked where. Scan through tweets, articles, and video clips, and you could reasonably establish a consensus opinion for any of the four prospects. Each player has their own monumental strengths, which make their cases fair, while also having notable weaknesses that could limit their ceilings. The issue of positions is also key, as the Wizards, Jazz, Grizzlies, and Bulls are at different stages of their rebuilds, with varied needs on their respective rosters.
If you ask me, which the NBA doesn’t at the moment, any team drafting in the Top 5 shouldn’t have any qualms about positional fits. Sure, exceptions for traded picks or clear superstars can be made, but I’m of the mind that if you’re at the bottom of the barrel in the NBA, you need all the help you can get. There are clearer fits on each team, but I’d even argue that players like Matas Buzelis, Will Riley, or Cedric Coward, to name a few, haven’t shown enough in their short NBA careers to keep their respective teams from considering prospects who could usurp their spots in the lineup.
In honor of this uniquely quadrilateral draft, I looked at all 24 possible combinations of how Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer, and Wilson could be drafted. A few caveats are needed for an article like this. First, all of the opinions and analyses below are my own, and anything you find dumb should not needlessly be attributed to anyone else at No Ceilings. Second, I would be floored if the consensus four is shaken up by a player like Mikel Brown Jr., Darius Acuff Jr., or Keaton Wagler. That’s not to say that one of these players, or another player I didn’t mention, won’t factor into the Top 4 when the draft comes around; I just personally consider it so unlikely that I won’t mention it. Plus, that would require me to add another “0” onto the end of my word count to consider every possible possibility with a fifth player added.
I’ve done my best to sort each scenario into tiers. Some have funny or punny names, while others are a bit more straightforward. With 24 distinct scenarios, I won’t have the chance to go into much detail in my thought process. Honestly, I’ll be talking about players in the same four spots over and over. Instead, take this article as a kaleidoscopic view into the draft’s multiversal future before the timelines align and spit out the true results. That’s where the fun of the draft is for me, and hopefully, by the end of this article, for you too!
The Predicted Section
Washington Wizards select: AJ Dybantsa
Utah Jazz select: Darryn Peterson
Memphis Grizzlies select: Cameron Boozer
Chicago Bulls select: Caleb Wilson
Since the day of the lottery, this has arguably been the most visible and widely circulated projection of the Top 4 of the 2026 NBA draft. Nitpick it all you want, but whether it comes from analysis, intel, or a mixture of both, there are strong arguments for the expected outcome to actually go that way. The Wizards have added veteran stars in Trae Young and Anthony Davis to buttress their young core, which includes Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George, but they still lack the most valuable resource in the modern NBA: an elite wing scorer.
That’s what AJ Dybantsa projects to be with his great athletic profile, advanced on-ball arsenal, and crisp shooting stroke. He showed notable strides as a ball-handler and passer this season, making him an even more exciting potential offensive fulcrum for a team like Washington. The Wizards haven’t made the postseason since 2021, and both ownership and fans are clamoring for a return to the playoffs, which Dybantsa could help deliver.
Elsewhere, the Utah Jazz snag Darryn Peterson with a similar idea in mind. Their roster has an established frontcourt and a deeper backcourt, but lacks a go-to perimeter scorer. That’s a role that Peterson has been predicted to play since his high school days. The Grizzlies, whether they trade Ja Morant or not, need a star to establish a new identity for the team, which Cameron Boozer can do on both ends of the floor. Finally, with no clear frontcourt stars, the board breaks nicely for the Bulls to take Caleb Wilson and build around a fearsome forward duo of him and Matas Buzelis.
Washington Wizards select: Darryn Peterson
Utah Jazz select: AJ Dybantsa
Memphis Grizzlies select: Cameron Boozer
Chicago Bulls select: Caleb Wilson
As soon as any sort of “consensus” was established in the wake of the 2026 NBA draft lottery results, a second counter-narrative of sorts developed for what the Washington Wizards should do with their top pick. It’s a bit silly to think of the Wizards as only considering two players, as they’ve cast a wide net in past drafts and have shown a willingness to draft prospects who refused to work out for them. That makes it likely that whether the Wiz can get them in the building or not, they’ll consider all four of Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer, and Wilson for their first #1 overall pick since drafting John Wall in 2011.
While the Wizards have a ton of young wing players, which they do in Tre Johnson, Will Riley, Bilal Coulibaly, and Kyshawn George, their current players shouldn’t keep them from looking at a wing like Dybantsa or Peterson for their top slot. The same is true with big men, although that room is a bit more cluttered, given Sarr’s jump as a defender in his second year and the presence of Anthony Davis in the middle. Thus, it makes a bit more sense for Washington to target a perimeter player, especially given their lack of a go-to scorer last season.
If the Wizards end up selecting Peterson, they’ll have looked past the injury issues that plagued him as a Jayhawk and considered his high school tape as an equally important factor. Before the college basketball season started, Darryn Peterson had risen to the top rank by many recruiting services, which was well-deserved after a dominant season at Prolific Prep, where his conditioning, athleticism, and playmaking all looked leagues better than they did at Kansas. In that case, the selection shouldn’t come as a shock if Peterson does end up as the Wizards’ choice.
For the Jazz, this is a coup on and off the court. They get to keep BYU’s biggest basketball star in years in the state, especially after he and his family spent a year there in high school, too. Dybantsa is also a great fit for their team, as they have the frontcourt and backcourt depth to support a ready-made wing scorer who can make an immediate impact. While they certainly wouldn’t mind Peterson either, it’s fair to wonder whether this would be the best possible outcome for the Jazz from the 2026 NBA draft.
Washington Wizards select: AJ Dybantsa
Utah Jazz select: Cameron Boozer
Memphis Grizzlies select: Darryn Peterson
Chicago Bulls select: Caleb Wilson
To some, this flip-flop will raise eyebrows. To others, it raises eyebrows that people consider this controversial. Blame that on Cam Boozer, who had a transcendent freshman year for Duke. Boozer was a dominant force on both ends for the Blue Devils, looking like every bit the type of franchise cornerstone that one could hope for. Some concerns about his athleticism and ability to be “the guy” did emerge, whether well-founded or not.
If the Jazz end up choosing Boozer over Peterson, it will come down to a simple reason: they decided to take the player they thought was the best available, position notwithstanding. They already have a loaded frontcourt with Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., Walker Kessler, and Kyle Filipowski, but this selection would lay bare a stark truth that Utah had discerned for themselves: none of the players I just mentioned are in the same ballpark as Boozer. He’d give the Jazz a north star to follow in their team construction, which could also help improve the outlooks of Keyonte George, Ace Bailey, and others.
For the Grizzlies, they’ll be happy to let the board fall as it may and take Peterson. They’ve had success built around an explosive guard in the past decade, although Peterson is a better draft prospect than Ja Morant was coming out of Murray State. Peterson could play lead guard for this Memphis team, spraying passes out to shooters like Jaylen Wells and Cedric Coward while tossing lobs over to Zach Edey. That’s a future that the Grizzlies would love and one that is nowhere near a consolation prize.
The Jumbo Section
Washington Wizards select: Cameron Boozer
Utah Jazz select: AJ Dybantsa
Memphis Grizzlies select: Darryn Peterson
Chicago Bulls select: Caleb Wilson
This section, as you can probably tell from the title, stems from the Wizards changing the course of the draft by going with a big man. This shouldn’t be considered the craziest set of scenarios simply because the Wizards are still figuring out their future team concept. They are 50-196 over the past three seasons, which doesn’t inspire enough confidence in anything they’ve done or in anyone they’ve played to have faith in a direction. In this way, these should be considered selections of the best player available.
Let’s start with a few scenarios centered on Cam Boozer. There have already been reports that the Wizards will work out all four of the top prospects and choose their preferred player. That’ll be their reasoning behind selecting Boozer, which will have some interesting wrinkles. It’ll cast some doubt about the long-term future of their frontcourt, as the team traded for Anthony Davis during the season and chose Alex Sarr with the second pick in 2024. With Boozer selected first, it’s likely one of those other bigs will have to go to give him his room to work.
Elsewhere in the draft, the Jazz would have their choice of perimeter prodigies and would likely feel great about adding a player like AJ Dybantsa to their young core. The Grizzlies would again pounce on the chance to get Peterson, given the perimeter scoring infusion he could give to their team. And last but not least, the Bulls would still be very glad to leave the draft with a two-way monster like Caleb Wilson.
Washington Wizards select: Cameron Boozer
Utah Jazz select: AJ Dybantsa
Memphis Grizzlies select: Caleb Wilson
Chicago Bulls select: Darryn Peterson
It’s the same story at the top of the draft for the Wizards and the Jazz, with both of them taking their top target and not thinking twice. The Wizards haven’t had a frontcourt player like this in years, which makes Boozer’s selection a worthy one. Same for Dybantsa to the Jazz, who would likely do cartwheels to the podium to grab the rare star prospect who has expressed interest and is excited about a future in Utah.
The intrigue of this multiversal future starts with Memphis. The Grizzlies are going to go in a new direction after the Ja Morant era derailed despite flying out of the gates. They have some great young pieces to work with, like Cedric Coward, Zach Edey, and Jaylen Wells, along with some fun fliers like Javon Small and Taylor Hendricks. Still, with the team’s first Top 3 pick since Morant, the Grizzlies need to get this pick right, especially given the deflated draft capital from the Jazz under the new lottery rules.
If the Grizz go with Wilson, it’s a strong statement of belief in his eventual upside and ceiling. There’s a ton of two-way terror that Wilson can inflict next to a bruising center like Edey, and he’ll have the lion’s share of touches early in his career to improve upon his shooting and shot creation. For the Bulls, nabbing Darryn Peterson is a bit of a shock scenario, but it’s one that they would happily live out. They haven’t had a guard this athletic since Derrick Rose, or maybe even further back, although Peterson would have a lot of work to do to live up to either legacy.
Washington Wizards select: Cameron Boozer
Utah Jazz select: Caleb Wilson
Memphis Grizzlies select: AJ Dybantsa
Chicago Bulls select: Darryn Peterson
If you’ve been watching the NBA playoffs this year, you’ll notice that, despite the past decade’s reliance on perimeter play, there’s still a need for skilled height. Victor Wembanyama is a generational talent, so I’m not referencing him exactly, but players like Karl-Anthony Towns, Chet Holmgren, Evan Mobley, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Jarrett Allen, to name some from the conference finals, are all necessary parts to their team’s success.
There isn’t a dominant center in this draft class, but this order of picks would represent teams valuing the skilled size that we’ve seen in the playoffs this year. I wouldn’t expect either Boozer or Wilson to play much small-ball center in their early years, but both of them have the defensive chops and offensive packages to be a force on both ends for years to come. Neither the Wizards nor the Jazz has a strong team identity that has helped them reach the playoffs in recent years, which makes centering their futures on a dominant big man a viable strategy.
For the Grizzlies, who face a choice of perimeter stars to select, this version sees them go with the bigger player. While Dybantsa is primarily a wing, he could form a potent, switchable frontcourt with Coward and Edey. It would be good on both ends, with enough varied firepower to be a mismatch for most teams. Meanwhile, the Bulls are hardly disappointed, as they have a player with real shooting-guard size who can help them improve their 6th-ranked threes taken but only 19th-ranked percentage from deep, while putting a ton of pressure on the rim.
Washington Wizards select: Caleb Wilson
Utah Jazz select: Cameron Boozer
Memphis Grizzlies select: AJ Dybantsa
Chicago Bulls select: Darryn Peterson
This variation is another one that looks like it came out of a bizarre alternate dimension compared to the consensus, but hear me out. The Wizards will do their due diligence to host as many top prospects as they can, and even if they can’t, the front office has shown no hesitancy in drafting someone without a visit. I have no clue what Caleb Wilson’s visit schedule is like, but I would also be shocked if he doesn’t visit the Wizards, given that he rightfully thinks he’s the best player in this draft.
If the Wizards choose Wilson but the Jazz are still jonesing for a big man, then it wouldn’t surprise me to see them select Boozer. There’s even a familial connection in the organization; if that convinces you otherwise, but the basketball reasons are more than compelling for this selection to happen. Boozer would be a staple of any lineup the team threw out next season and would give the Jazz a clear player to mold their team concept after for the next decade.
For the Grizzlies, the opportunity to take a player who has as much size as Dybantsa will be too much to pass up at this high slot. The Bulls, as detailed above, won’t mind this either, as they’ll be able to let the board fall as it may to take a player who could give them a perennial wing All-Star.
Washington Wizards select: AJ Dybantsa
Utah Jazz select: Cameron Boozer
Memphis Grizzlies select: Caleb Wilson
Chicago Bulls select: Darryn Peterson
Consider this a remix of some of the variations we’ve looked at already, where size has been a primary focus for teams drafting this highly, and the return of AJ Dybantsa to the top spot. I think the Wizards will seriously consider drafting Boozer and Wilson with the first overall pick, but will end up going with either Peterson or Dybantsa. It’s simply too hard to pass up on a top-tier perimeter scoring talent, given how much of a dearth there is in the league of players that fit this archetype.
The real intrigue, then, would come with the Jazz selecting Boozer. I’ve already gone over why I think they would in the sections above, but it’s worth repeating that, despite their veteran frontcourt, the Jazz haven’t won anything of value with this current roster, so none of these incumbent players are worth moving. I do love the idea of a jumbo lineup built around Boozer, Markkanen, and Jackson Jr., as all three are versatile enough to play together on offense due to their inside-out arsenals.
The Grizzlies, in this scenario, also go with the bigger option in Wilson than Peterson. It’s a fair place for them to go, given the synergy that Wilson and Edey could have as a modern NBA frontcourt, but I would be quite surprised if the Grizzlies had the chance to draft Peterson and didn’t. I’m not saying he’s a perfect fit, but I could only see this scenario happening if there were some lingering medical concerns for him that Wilson did not have. Those concerns, unless they were career-threatening, would likely have no effect on the Bulls’ decision to draft him, as they’ve been starved for a perimeter monster in recent years.
The Shakeup Section
Washington Wizards select: Caleb Wilson
Utah Jazz select: Cameron Boozer
Memphis Grizzlies select: Darryn Peterson
Chicago Bulls select: AJ Dybantsa
Let’s be clear: if this happens on draft night, social media and sports betting apps will likely break. I’m including this scenario because it is technically possible, but, like most people who follow the NBA Draft, I’d be quite surprised. It’s not because these four players, especially Caleb Wilson, are not worthy of being drafted first overall. Instead, it will serve as a referendum on how all four teams feel about their current rosters.
We’re into the section of this article where you should throw conventions out the window. The consensus about this draft, or any, is built upon opinions upon opinions. Even the thoughts that I have as a draft pundit, no matter how much objectivity I strive for, have been touched by a subjective perspective somewhere along the line. While this draft won’t likely have a crazy selection like Keaton Wagler or Darius Acuff Jr. at #1, it’s worth thinking about how even a jumbling of the consensus can create an entangled spider web of ripple effects.
For the Wizards, selecting Caleb Wilson will be a shock to the system. He would fit well with Alex Sarr due to the athletic combos both could serve on both ends. At the same time, however, neither is a proven shooter, which could create some future spacing issues. Plus, he doesn’t seem to fit with Trae Young or Anthony Davis in the present. Wilson’s selection would potentially indicate that neither player will have a long future in Washington.
I’ve already detailed above what it would look like for Utah to select Boozer and why they might do so, but it would be an even starker decision for them to do so with both Dybantsa and Peterson on the board. The same can be said for Memphis, who I doubt would expect to have a choice between Dybantsa and Peterson here. Choosing Peterson will say more about how they view the two as perimeter prospects who can lead their team in the future. Finally, I’m sure that Chicago would be ecstatic to add an electric player like AJ Dybantsa to their roster, as he would instantly give them a star wing the likes of which they haven’t had in years.
Washington Wizards select: Cameron Boozer
Utah Jazz select: Darryn Peterson
Memphis Grizzlies select: AJ Dybantsa
Chicago Bulls select: Caleb Wilson
This situation is the most likely one that could shake up the consensus at the top of the draft without shattering the Richter scale. In this universe, the Wizards come to the conclusion that Cameron Boozer is the best player in the draft and then take him. It’s not the most outlandish take, but it’s certainly one that isn’t being mocked as often as either Peterson or Dybantsa.
Maybe it’s the media machine in the Beehive State that’s stirred up the region’s assured views toward Dybantsa, but selecting Peterson over him wouldn’t be a massive stretch given Peterson’s past dominance as a prospect. Again, in concert with Boozer’s top selection, the draft would be going a bit off the rails, but not in a substantial way. Dybantsa going third to the Grizzlies would make their fan base happy to have a top-scoring option, while the Bulls continue to sit back and let the chips fall as they may by waiting to take Wilson with the fourth pick.
Washington Wizards select: Caleb Wilson
Utah Jazz select: AJ Dybantsa
Memphis Grizzlies select: Darryn Peterson
Chicago Bulls select: Cameron Boozer
Instead of the presumed “1, 2, 3, 4” that many media outlets started their mock drafts with, this “4, 1, 2, 3” order shakes up the convention without shaking up much of the prospect order. Caleb Wilson going first overall would represent a massive jump up for him from his preseason rankings, as he was a five-star recruit, but wasn’t considered in the same tier of prospects by many as the other trio of players taken here. That sort of leap has happened before, but should be lauded nonetheless.
He’d instantly turn the frontcourt of the Wizards into arguably the best young big man lineup in the league, as he and Alex Sarr will be menaces on the outside and on switches as well. For Utah, their potentially preferred scenario of getting to choose between AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson would earn them the biggest basketball star of the decade with some connection or other to the state. Dybantsa would have a clear path to stardom on and off the court. The Grizzlies, getting to choose between two prospects they may have expected to select only one of, would be a coup for their scouting department. In this scenario, they don’t pass up on their future franchise perimeter scorer.
Somehow it’s taken me this long to get to a scenario where Cameron Boozer ends up with the Bulls, which would be a fascinating, high-upside fit for both the team and the player. Chicago lacks a clear identity, one that Boozer could establish on both ends of the floor early in his career. It also doesn’t hurt that his father used to play for the team, which should help endear him even faster to the Bulls’ crowd.
Washington Wizards select: Darryn Peterson
Utah Jazz select: Cameron Boozer
Memphis Grizzlies select: AJ Dybantsa
Chicago Bulls select: Caleb Wilson
This configuration of the Top 4 draft picks is a reshuffling of the top three high school players in their respective classes. Throughout the year, at different times, anyone could’ve reasonably made a compelling argument that Peterson, Boozer, or Dybantsa was the top player in their senior class. It’s even more impressive if you turn back the clock further: at one point, Cooper Flagg was in this draft class as well before his reclassification. If he were, this would be a 5! article about the Wizards, Jazz, Grizzlies, Bulls, and Clippers, though I digress.
If the Wizards zero in on Darryn Peterson at this spot, they’d be relying more on that high school tape in their evaluation. I was a big fan of Peterson based on his Prolific Prep and Phenom United film from last season. There was simply no other guard, or maybe even player, in the country who could’ve had the same dominant two-way stretches that Peterson had. There hasn’t been a guard with that kind of potential on the Wiz since John Wall; if everything goes right, Peterson could even have a higher ceiling than Wall did as a superstar.
Utah getting a chance to choose between Dybantsa and Boozer is a positive outcome for their organization, as is choosing a talented two-way forward who was arguably one of the best analytics prospects ever. The Grizzlies will have no qualms with AJ Dybantsa spearheading their next era with his wing scoring acumen, while the Bulls will, as they have in a handful of these scenarios already, be more than happy to shape their frontcourt around Caleb Wilson.
Washington Wizards select: AJ Dybantsa
Utah Jazz select: Darryn Peterson
Memphis Grizzlies select: Caleb Wilson
Chicago Bulls select: Cameron Boozer
At first, this variation doesn’t appear to shake up the consensus at all. AJ Dybantsa still goes to the Wizards to be their next star player, and Darryn Peterson completes the young, burgeoning core in Utah. Both are the current expected outcomes in most mocks, given the easy fits for both players on their respective teams and the presumption that they are the best players available. The intrigue, then, will start in which of the two Tobacco Road big men is worth taking at the third spot for Memphis.
The decision for the Grizzlies will come down to projection for the future, as both Cam Boozer and Caleb Wilson are good enough to be immediate stars in their rookie years. Boozer has the more analytically impressive profile, while Caleb Wilson’s athleticism on both sides of the field appears to offer greater eventual upside. Of course, as we’ve seen over the past few years, the idea of a “false ceiling” may be relevant to either player. Boozer’s athletic concerns and qualms about the optics of how he gets his points won’t matter if he is simply a great scorer who fits into the NBA. Wilson’s skill limitations and shooting concerns are both issues that, with enough time in the gym, he can conceivably fix.
For the Bulls, then, the chance to select Boozer at four is one they can feel confident about for their franchise. They’ll still need to pair Boozer with an NBA center given the departure of Nikola Vucevic, but they have one of the more underrated situations for a young frontcourt player. With Josh Giddey as a distributor, Matas Buzelis on the wing, and no one else to demand a ton of touches inside, both Boozer and Wilson land in situations that are extremely beneficial toward their futures early in their careers.
The “In Quotes” Section
Washington Wizards select: Darryn Peterson
Utah Jazz select: Caleb Wilson
Memphis Grizzlies select: Cameron Boozer
Chicago Bulls select: AJ Dybantsa
Having gone through just over half of the scenarios, we’ve entered the territory where the arguments get a bit more rooted in semantics. I call this the “in quotes” section because while the reasoning behind the selections in this will focus on certain specific criteria, there’s no actual proof that those criteria are correct or even usable. Rather, these are the arguments I imagine each team would make when selecting each player for their specific spot, since they don’t make as much sense otherwise.
In this case, the defensive chops of each prospect enter the equation for each of the top spots. It’s a fair point to note that elite offense is more valuable than elite defense in most cases when it comes to basketball players, although Victor Wembanyama would likely want to have a word with my last statement. Still, all the players in the top tier of the 2026 NBA Draft class project as high-level scorers, which creates an opening for teams to consider whether their defense will hold up at the next level.
That’s what happened here, although not in the most traditional sense. Here, with no interior anchors available, the Wizards choose to invest in a player who has shown some monster two-way potential in Peterson. This is a reliance on his high school tape, as he made some jaw-dropping steals and blocks there, but it’s also one that rests on his overall upside. Wilson’s defensive game, which is built around his timing and athleticism, would be enough to sway the team to take him over Boozer, who is nowhere near a poor defender but will benefit from getting to play next to a giant center in Zach Edey.
This scenario, really, is a referendum on how teams view AJ Dybantsa’s defense. He had some rough advanced metrics on that end this season, without enough good tape to back up claims that the numbers were lying. Part of it was that Dybantsa wasn’t asked to be a stopper on that end, given his massive offensive load, but it is still concerning enough, in this scenario, to drop him to the fourth pick. The Bulls won’t mind, given they get to center their franchise around his flamethrowing, but it is a potential reason that, if teams are forced to split hairs between near-equal prospects, they could fade Dybantsa.
Washington Wizards select: Darryn Peterson
Utah Jazz select: Cameron Boozer
Memphis Grizzlies select: Caleb Wilson
Chicago Bulls select: AJ Dybantsa
This is almost the same scenario as before, but with a slight twist. The Wizards still conclude that Darryn Peterson is the best player available and take him, with his defensive potential factored in. The Bulls are still the lucky recipients of AJ Dybantsa, taking advantage of his slide due to defensive concerns to get their next star perimeter player. The Jazz, then, get to swing their pick, and the Grizzlies get to choose which forward they believe is better.
I’m not sure that, despite their current reputations, Caleb Wilson is definitely a better present and future defender than Cam Boozer. A ton of Wilson’s reputation on that end centers on his stunning athleticism and frame, both of which suggest he should have all the tools in the world to be an all-world defender. Boozer, on the other hand, has gained an unfounded reputation as a worse athlete than Wilson, which has bled into concerns that he will have issues with his defense at the NBA level.
If the Jazz choose him here, there’s either not enough of a gap to convince them in Wilson’s direction due to defense, or they’ve come to the conclusion that the gap doesn’t matter. They only had the 29th-ranked defense in the NBA last year, so it’s imperative that they start to address that soon. However, it’s almost impossible to get a top-end scorer without a high lottery pick. The Grizzlies won’t mind taking Wilson, as he should help shore up their 27th-ranked defense while also providing a ton of future promise on offense.
Washington Wizards select: Darryn Peterson
Utah Jazz select: AJ Dybantsa
Memphis Grizzlies select: Caleb Wilson
Chicago Bulls select: Cameron Boozer
Ah, athleticism. If you make it to the NBA, you are, by default, one of the best athletes on the planet. Once you get to the NBA, however, there are definite rungs of athleticism that separate out players. That’s something all NBA teams try to measure when scouting prospects, but it isn’t as easy as measuring some advanced stats for other skills. Sure, there are vertical heights and shuttle run times, but parsing who is more “athletic” also needs to take into account micro-skills like quickness, deceleration, fluidity, and so much more.
Thus, when looking at this potential scenario, I’d guess that the top teams decided to skew slightly more toward athletic tools than pure basketball skills. There’s no right or wrong way to value a prospect, but it’s easier to teach someone to shoot than it is to teach them to jump ten feet in the air. While you could certainly argue that Darryn Peterson and AJ Dybantsa are equally athletic, it is worth noting that Peterson looked quite athletic this year at Kansas, even while clearly less than 100% and hobbled by his injury issues.
Peterson’s past athletic profile, alongside his crazy two-way talent, makes him the selection for Washington. AJ Dybantsa isn’t too far behind, as he’s a monumental wing athlete in and of himself. The Jazz would be able to boast the most athletic wing duo in maybe the entire league with Dybantsa and Ace Bailey once they reached their ceilings. For the Grizzlies, taking Wilson over Boozer is a bet on his athletic tools and frame, allowing him to grow beyond where he’s already grown. Finally, the Bulls should have no issues getting Cam Boozer, as he’s a good athlete in his own right, if not the most conventional-looking forward athlete in the draft.
Washington Wizards select: Caleb Wilson
Utah Jazz select: AJ Dybantsa
Memphis Grizzlies select: Cameron Boozer
Chicago Bulls select: Darryn Peterson
Few teams, if any, ever really let health determine whether or not they’ll take a top prospect. Greg Oden, Victor Wembanyama, and a whole host of other top players have had injury concerns ranging from mundane to make-or-break, yet most of the time, teams will gamble and hope for the more positive outcomes rather than the more broken ones. None of the top four players in this draft has major long-term health issues, but if one is going to fall due to health issues, it’ll be Darryn Peterson.
It may sound odd for the Wiz to take a player who suffered multiple hand injuries in the “health” scenario, but consider that the athletic tools Wilson brings to the basketball court make him a uniquely singular athlete. He moves like a player smaller than him, is faster, and leaps higher than most players around him, and is still growing into his frame. The clean bill of health and monster set of tools that Wilson could have access to make him the top spot for Washington here.
Elsewhere, the Jazz and Grizzlies both select players with cleaner bills of health who also have enough tools to be high-upside bets. Dybantsa to the Jazz is one I’ve already detailed a ton, so I’ll focus on the Grizzlies selecting Cam Boozer over Peterson. The team would be ecstatic to have such a tough choice in front of them, but if there are any issues with a star guard and nagging injuries, it may not want to repeat its last mistake and could go for a slightly safer option.
At this point, Darryn Peterson has done all he can to dissuade any rumors about his health. He’s given interviews, had lengthy features written about his issues, and also should have more than enough time to ramp back up to his regular level of elite athleticism. The Bulls certainly won’t mind, as they’re in a patient stage of their rebuild and could even survive Peterson’s slower start to his career if he catches the injury bug again.
Washington Wizards select: Caleb Wilson
Utah Jazz select: Darryn Peterson
Memphis Grizzlies select: AJ Dybantsa
Chicago Bulls select: Cameron Boozer
At this point in the exercise, we’ve already gone through sixteen scenarios. The case has already been made for all these players in all these spots, just not in this exact configuration. Given it’s not one of the likely scenarios in my view, I’ve done my best to put on my thinking cap to parse through what could make teams pick in this manner. What I’ve come down to, to summarize it into an idea, is a true prioritization of tools.
The Wizards find it impossible to pass up a forward with the measurables and athletic profile to be an outlier at his position. Compared to the rest of the prospects in this tier, Wilson has the highest athletic ceiling given his frame and wingspan, along with his great leaping and running ability. The next-best case for an outlier athlete at a given position would be Darryn Peterson. If he gets back to his past levels and improves upon them, he may rank as the best shooting guard athlete in the NBA, or at least enough to give Anthony Edwards a run for his money.
The Grizzlies, needing a true killer wing athlete, would happily take Dybantsa here. It doesn’t matter that they just took a great athlete last year in Cedric Coward; with the way the NBA game is going, you can never have too many high-level wings. That leaves the Bulls to once again claim the “consolation” prize of Boozer, who would have gone first in several other draft classes. Although he may never become an outlier at his position, Boozer is more than capable of handling NBA athletes while remaining a productive player.
The Jazzed About Caleb Section
Washington Wizards select: AJ Dybantsa
Utah Jazz select: Caleb Wilson
Memphis Grizzlies select: Cameron Boozer
Chicago Bulls select: Darryn Peterson
Washington Wizards select: AJ Dybantsa
Utah Jazz select: Caleb Wilson
Memphis Grizzlies select: Darryn Peterson
Chicago Bulls select: Cameron Boozer
Welcome to the weirdest section of this article for me, personally. I think there’s certainly a case to be made for each of the Top 4 prospects at each of the first four spots, but if you asked me which fit would puzzle me most, it would be Caleb Wilson to the Jazz. As I mentioned above, the Jazz aren’t in a position to be picky about fit, given their lack of winning ways. At the same time, they’ve recently invested heavy monetary and draft capital into Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., Walker Kessler, and Kyle Filipowski.
If the Wizards took Dybantsa and, out of Boozer, Peterson, and Wilson, the Jazz chose Wilson, it would send a clear message that the Jazz were still firmly in their rebuild. They could try to play him as a big wing, but they just took a big wing with the fifth pick last year in Rutgers’ Ace Bailey. It’s more than possible to play Wilson and Bailey together, while keeping in mind that they may need to fix a few backboards and rims, but the team would need to majorly reshuffle their frontcourt to get them enough minutes to reach their full potential.
The Grizzlies, having their pick between Boozer and Peterson, would want to pair two analytics darlings in Boozer and Edey to form what could be the best frontcourt in all of basketball if the computers are right. The Bulls, then, would find themselves in an oddly-MJ-esque situation, where the best guard in the draft fell to them. While it would take some majorly positive outcomes for Peterson to reach those heights, to say the least, he would give them a true north star prospect to orient their whole organization around in the pursuit of a title.
In the second scenario, it’s a flip of who the Grizzlies would take with Peterson going third instead. This choice would be one where they’d want to keep their future tied to a stud guard, but one who may have a higher ceiling than Ja Morant ever did. The Bulls won’t mind the good fortune of Wilson going higher than expected to grab Boozer, who would be a great fit for their frontcourt for at least the next decade.
Washington Wizards select: Cameron Boozer
Utah Jazz select: Caleb Wilson
Memphis Grizzlies select: Darryn Peterson
Chicago Bulls select: AJ Dybantsa
This isn’t the most outlandish way that the draft could go, in my opinion, but it is up there with those other outcomes. It’s less about whether I could see each of these star prospects fitting with their teams in a vacuum, and more about the process and steps it would take for the draft to unfold this way. Namely, the first decision that sets off this cascade of moves isn’t one that would shock me: without a clear direction and no indication that the team wants to be a contender immediately, it’s well within the expected outcomes for this draft class for the Wizards to take Cameron Boozer with the top pick.
Then, the conventional ideas about the second pick go out the window. If Utah had the choice between Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, and Caleb Wilson, few people would bet on them to pass up on both perimeter prospects to take Wilson. It wouldn’t be the easiest fit, while it would also pass up on two players who have had higher rankings in high school and college for most of their time in the class. It would, then, represent the Jazz doing their homework and deciding that Wilson, not Peterson nor Dybantsa, was the right call for their first Top 3 pick since Enes Kanter in 2011.
That leaves the Grizzlies in the unexpected position to choose between Dybantsa and Peterson. In this particular scenario, the ability to grab a lead guard is too tempting for the team to pass up, leaving Dybantsa to fall to the Bulls. Both players would be in immediate positions to take a ton of shots, develop as creators, and be able to grow their games a bit outside of the spotlight, compared to the scrutiny that Boozer and Wilson will face as more unquestioned stars on their respective teams.
The Section that Stumped Me
Washington Wizards select: Cameron Boozer
Utah Jazz select: Darryn Peterson
Memphis Grizzlies select: Caleb Wilson
Chicago Bulls select: AJ Dybantsa
We’re in the endgame now, which means that I’m at the point of scenarios where I’m not quite sure what would lead to these specific scenarios. It may be because of my current biases and beliefs about prospects, or maybe because of presumed team needs, despite the desire for teams to take the best player available. Either way, for the last three scenarios in this section, I’ll do my best to explain why I think each team would make its decision, even if it doesn’t make as much sense to me.
Let’s start with this first situation. As I’ve said before, it wouldn’t shock me to see Washington take Cameron Boozer here. He would be a great player to lead their franchise into their next era. It also wouldn’t shock me if, between the three remaining prospects, Utah chose to go with Peterson over Dybantsa and Wilson. He fits a clear hole for their team as a dynamite perimeter scorer who could help them return to the playoffs.
In that sense, the more perplexing move would come from the Grizzlies. Choosing between Dybantsa and Wilson would seem to come down to a bit of positional fit instead of best player available, as Memphis would seek to complete its frontcourt instead of taking a dynamic young wing. As I’ve said many, many times during this article, any team could come to any conclusion on who they think is the best player available. I’d only say I’d be surprised if the Wizards, Jazz, and Grizzlies all came to these conclusions in a row.
Washington Wizards select: Darryn Peterson
Utah Jazz select: Caleb Wilson
Memphis Grizzlies select: AJ Dybantsa
Chicago Bulls select: Cameron Boozer
Maybe this could’ve fit in the last section, where I discussed a handful of scenarios in which Caleb Wilson went to Utah, but this one felt different enough that I didn’t know quite what to do with it. At the top, Darryn Peterson going to the Wizards would neither be a shocking conclusion nor should be one that we discount as anything but the favored outcome at this juncture, as Peterson’s stellar guard play can turn a franchise like Washington around almost overnight.
That would leave the Jazz with the choice of the home state hero in Dybantsa, an analytics darling with a dad who works in the front office in Boozer, and a two-way, high-upside terror in Wilson. While the Jazz, as I’ve already covered, could choose to select Wilson due to their belief in who he could be now and one day in the future, it would register as a pretty large shock for them to take him over either Dybantsa or Boozer at this juncture in the draft.
That gives Memphis a surprising decision between Dybantsa and Boozer, with the team opting to secure their future franchise cornerstone wing in Dybantsa. The Bulls, who have likely accepted their fate and lack control over their future, will enjoy having Boozer continue his father’s legacy with the team.
Washington Wizards select: Caleb Wilson
Utah Jazz select: Darryn Peterson
Memphis Grizzlies select: Cameron Boozer
Chicago Bulls select: AJ Dybantsa
For the final scenario for what could happen with the first four picks, it’s again a bit of a befuddling mix of selections. On their face, none of these picks should surprise you; if you’ve read this far, you’ve heard about Wilson to the Wizards, Peterson to the Jazz, Boozer to the Grizzlies, and Dybantsa to the Bulls already.
It’s more interesting, however, to consider what would lead each team to make these choices. It’s a large drop for Dybantsa, who has been the presumed favorite for the top pick, to tumble down to the Bulls. They’ll gladly take him, and he should fit well with their system to get a ton of shots early in his career.
The Wizards taking Wilson will be a bit surprising, but shouldn’t be, given he’s a monster talent in his own right. Peterson over Dybantsa would be more surprising, if only for the other prospect’s connections to the team. The Grizzlies taking Boozer shouldn’t be the most shocking, but passing up on a dynamite wing for a big man will ruffle some feathers even if it shouldn’t.
And there we have it! We’re only a few days from the draft at this point, which means it’s time to check your notifications to see if a shocking trade has disrupted this whole article. Most importantly, four star-level prospects are about to change the futures for four basketball teams, and I can’t wait to see who gets to be the future face of which NBA team.